Cruising ESPN in the dead of (basketball) winter
I was reading Truehoop this morning and saw a nice little article on San Antonio. The Spurs will be one of the more interesting teams to me this coming season because they represent what the Blazers could have been this year. A solid core (although the Blazers’ will have slightly improved with experience and the Spurs’ will have slightly regressed with age) that stayed intact but added enough quality pieces to be immediate title contenders.
"In a sense, Popovich is like a kid at Christmas brunch. His new toys have been unwrapped. He is eager to start playing with them. Training camp doesn't begin for another month, but the wheels have already begun to turn in Popovich's head -- the neat tricks he can try with his new athletic swingman, Richard Jefferson; the new offensive elements veteran forward Antonio McDyess can bring; the raw rebounding potential inside rookie forward DeJuan Blair, waiting to be unleashed."
There was no shortage of information a year ago that Richard Jefferson was very available for RLEC but the deal was not done (was any of the information concrete? No, but Milwaukee just let him go for “the-not-so-fabulous Oberto,” Kurt Thomas and the corpse of Bruce Bowen. You tell me if we couldn’t have made that deal). And even accounting for the increase in wins RJ would have produced which would have set our draft position back, we still would have had an opportunity to draft my favorite prospect, DeJuan Blair who did a free fall into the late second round. Now I have to admit Dante Cunningham looked solid in summer league and I am more than happy to have Andre Miller as a 2 year rental (Picking up RJ would have taken all our cap space) but San Antonio will be like bizarro Portland to me this season. It will be very interesting to see where that path could have taken us...
ESPN also has this up...Summer forecast: worst newcomer. 3 Blazer related names popped up, big surprise.
Randolph (12 votes)
Normally, when a 20-and-10 guy joins one of the worst teams in the league, it's a good thing. Not in this case, according to a dozen of our voters. Despite his talent, Z-Bo's questionable character would appear to be detrimental to a young Grizzlies squad. Not to mention that he is one of the biggest black holes in basketball and doesn't play defense.
To make matters worse, the Grizzlies took on the remaining two years and $33 million of his contract. Sure, he could earn the Griz a few more wins with his post play, but so could, uh, Pau Gasol (minus the headaches). Just sayin'.
Wallace (6 votes)
The C's need big things from Sheed to contend for a title; many of our voters don't expect him to deliver. His production has plateaued during the past three seasons, and he continues to make a negative impact with his technicals. Playing alongside KG might help Sheed stay interested, but will Wallace embrace his role off the bench for 82 games?
Turkoglu (3 votes)
Turkoglu had some big playoff moments in 2009 -- the Kobe block, double-doubles against Cleveland and Boston and daggers in Philly. But the Raptors gave $53 million to a guy who has never made an All-Star team and probably never will. He's a good piece, but remember, elite teams such as San Antonio and Orlando let him walk. There must be a reason, no?
I’ll never understand why Zach Randolph got that albatross of a contract just like I’ll never understand why my fellow Blazer fans still have love in their heart for Sheed just like I’ll never understand why KP would offer 50 million freaking dollars to Turkoglu. Meh, they’re someone else’s problem now.
Marc Stein also talks about a potential lockout from the NBA referees this year. “The proposed cuts to the referee budget are believed to include reductions in travel costs, pension payouts and health benefits in addition to salary cuts.”
If I was an NBA referee I wouldn’t be happy about that either. Of course, if I was an NBA referee I would also suck at my job (zing!). Seriously though, I know the “scabs” that would replace the current referees would suck for a while (at least thats what Dwight Jaynes implies they did in 1995, the last time this happened) but couldn’t the NBA use this as an opportunity/springboard to just clean house and start with a fresh set of (assumingly) young and unbiased officials? I mean, drop a nuclear bomb on the current referee regime, start fresh with a little transparency and really start holding these guys accountable. We all know refs are human and make mistakes, so lets talk about it. Make them accessible in post game conferences. The NBA disciplined a ref? Ok, what was the action? I’m not saying the NBA should just let everyone go and not change the way they do business; the league should probably change more than the refs should. But I wouldn’t be sad to see Joe Crawford, Dick Bavetta, or Steve Javie go. Hell, keep em around as consultants or trainers if you really want.
1 recs |
48 comments
Comments
this should be a fan shot.
and for some reason my blockquote wasn’t working the way it was supposed to. sorry if you can’t tell the difference between ESPN writing and mine :)
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 10:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you're overstating "bias" among refs
Bringing in all new refs would be a disaster.
by matthewcc on Aug 26, 2009 10:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what really needs to be done
is to take away ref “supervision” from the NBA. A third party should hire, monitor, reward and chasten the officials. Then, maybe we’d see some regularity in calls and non-calls at all times and for every player
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 26, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah I think people have been screaming for that one for a while too
I don’t the league ever likes giving up power though. over anything. we’ll prob see that happening around the same time the BCS goes away.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the point I was making was that the system needs an overhaul
I think you’re overstating the potential “disaster” of having fresh faced, highly trained and accountable referees. Not that it wouldn’t be a completely smooth transition at first. Just like Team USA has to adjust to international teams of referees, or every NBA player when they enter the league has to adjust to NBA officiating, it takes time. In my scenario I’m saying the league, not just the ref’s need to make some changes and although my idea is somewhat radical, I think it would be more effective in the long term.
For the record, this would never happen anyway. Just having some fun.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
hmm
i still like sheed. i do not wish he was still playing here though, but sheed is awesome! i always loved his intensity(although it is pretty costly). i am actually pretty excited to see what he does with the celtics. him and kg, that could be interesting.
by jpaulson on Aug 26, 2009 11:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There’s a big difference between where the Blazers are and where the Spurs are. Not even considering the apparent value of letting RELEC fall off the books for the Blazer front office and Paul Allen’s pocket book, Richard Jefferson would be like an odd prosthetic limb attached to this young core. He makes sense with the aging team attempting to reinvigorate for a final title run, but in Portland he would only leave a bevy of talented young wingmen rotting on an already deep bench. De Juan Blair is a complete unknown in my opinion. He’s clearly an energetic banger who would have accepted limited time behind LMA gladly, however I can’t believe that 29 team physicians completely overestimated the severity of his knee problems. On an aging team already hobbled and looking at a very limited window of opportunity he’s a decent risk. Mcdyess is attractive that’s for sure, but it might be difficult to convince him to leave a crumbling Pistons squad seemingly committed to rebuilding and development for another young team. He has the knowledge for deep playoff contention and probably wants to join a like minded mature squad that’s going places. Again, that’s the Spurs.
Refs are for booing at.
Backcourt game - 24/7
by pxilpooshr on Aug 26, 2009 11:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
wait, Mcdeyss is attractive thats for sure...but DeJuan Blair is only for a team that has a limited window???
how much more gas do you think Mcdeyss has in the tank? its not like he hasn’t had a few knee surgeries as well btw.
you can’t talk about RLEC falling off for the sake of PA’s pocketbook…they, um, offered Turk 50 million dollars.
RJ an odd prosthetic limb attached to this young core? He’s like 29! How old do you think Turk is? Andre Miller?!
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait, Mcdeyss is attractive thats for sure…but DeJuan Blair is only for a team that has a limited window???
I was not comparing the two in any way. Mcdeyss would have been attractive as a veteran leader who brought deep playoff experience. As I stated it is my conjecture that he may not have wanted to go to such a young team with an as yet unproven core. Mcdeyss is a known quantity that would bring a set of benefits that DeJaun Blair might also bring. DeJuan Blair, as I said, is an unknown. I feel that I was fairly clear in that statement.
you can’t talk about RLEC falling off for the sake of PA’s pocketbook…they, um, offered Turk 50 million dollars.
The GM, Kevin Pritchard offered Turkaglu 50 million for reasons that are probably relatively separate from my conjecture that the office of the president, Larry Miller, and the Vulcans wanted to cut and run on the funds tied up in the RELEC. Possibly the two are related. I’m not a mind reader.
RJ an odd prosthetic limb attached to this young core? He’s like 29! How old do you think Turk is?
By the term “prosthetic limb” I did not mean to imply that he was ancient. I meant to imply that he would have been out of place on this younger team, already at his peak, with several talented and eager young players who need the time to develop parked behind him. Now this isn’t an indictment of his ability but rather I am expressive a reluctance to go with a 29 year old over what seems to be a very promising group of youngsters who are the same age as the rest of the team and are, combined, cheaper than him. Turk? I don’t care he’s not here.
Andre Miller?!
Andre Miller fills a much maligned deficiency in the roster and brings a smart leadership approach to the team. Avery different role than what Jefferson would have played.
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills/blockquote>
Take a deep breath, and remember you don’t have to answer every comment on your fanpost. It can be a discussion for the group and you aren’t obliged to defend your point. I for one am grateful to have something to discuss here in the deep winter times ;)
Backcourt game - 24/7
by pxilpooshr on Aug 26, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sigh I always clip those blockquote tags. sorry.
Backcourt game - 24/7
by pxilpooshr on Aug 26, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha ok I'll chill out with the crazy :)
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s all good. :)
Backcourt game - 24/7
by pxilpooshr on Aug 26, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do have to say though, that I included the Turk references
because that was KP’s target. kind of a dead horse but you wanna talk about a prosthetic limb! if KP would have had his way we woulda used that RLEC money on a guy who is older than RJ who plays at the same position, scores less and isn’t any better a leader than Jefferson…well, I don’t know about that last part. RJ certainly has never been labeled as a bad character guy but who really knows what Turk, or anyone of these guys are like in the locker room.
where would all those guys who need that development have gone? the bench. again, this was KP’s #1 target. I thank god we got “burned” on that one!
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
KP having his way.
KP’s “way”, if he’s worth his salt is a vast array of options. The path he and his team takes is the one given primacy at a particular time due a very wide set of variable. I doubt that he every has his heart set on any one player or any one outcome. If he did the nature of his juob would leave him feeling like he took crazy pills.
Turk’s stock was high. Why was Turks stock high? Well lets look at where he ended his season (finals) and compare that to where RJ ended his season (not the finals). That’s what I like to call “realpolitik” assessment. Wins speak volumes. Like KG said “What can you say now” haterz?
Backcourt game - 24/7
by pxilpooshr on Aug 26, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
KP's way" IS an array of options, IF his first option fell through like it did. that doesn't take anything away from what his first option was though...a 50 million Turk.
c’mon though, comparing milwaukie to orlando last year?
lets try comparing toronto to san antonio next year then :)
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Turk's PER was lower than RJ's last year btw
if you’re into that sort of thing
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stats make me ill.
The only thing numbers do on the court is ride the backs of true players.
Backcourt game - 24/7
by pxilpooshr on Aug 26, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Darius Miles's stock was high at one time
Just sayin’
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Aug 27, 2009 7:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To me at least, this is correct across the board
"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy
by Honka Playboy on Aug 26, 2009 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll second what pxilpooshr said.
It is a real stretch to say the Spurs are what the Blazers could have been.
Whether or not Richard Jefferson could have been obtained at last year’s trade deadline is irrelevant. What counts is whether or not he is a good fit. I don’t see how he is and apparently neither did Pritchard. If we go on to assume that trading for Jefferson would have meant no Andre Miller in the off season (I am not sure that would have been true), then the viewpoint that Jefferson is not a good fit gets further reinforced. Miller fills a bigger need for this team than Jefferson.
As for Blair – we will have to wait and see. So far he’s an unproven rookie who hasn’t played a second on NBA ball. Let’s at least wait until Jan 1 to evaluate whether Portland dropped the ball by not taking him when they could have.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Aug 26, 2009 12:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Its not really debatable that RJ was available to us so I agree its irrelevant.
but the fit thing is hard to swallow. its like saying “he’s not a good fit” to any player we don’t obtain. think about it, how could you prove that a player we didn’t get actually IS a good fit? and actually, he’s a GREAT fit. KP even recognized that the SF was more important than the PG position (I happened to disagree but oh well) and he showed it by GOING AFTER TURK for the sake of 50 million dollars. In fact, he went after a back up PF before he went after a PG (paul milsap).
why do you guys think the majority of ESPN writers voted RJ the most important addition this offseason? he’s under 30 he averages nearly 20 a game, he’s actually decent at defense and he’s a solid vet.
the blazers don’t need that?! ANY team could use that. Our rotation of TO, Martell “2 more weeks” Webster, Nic Batum and [insert rookie here] doesn’t need an upgrade? I mean, I want Nic to have the opportunity to grow too but you guys think we’re gonna keep all of them? Nic couldn’t play behind RJ?
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll have to agree that the "fit" argument is not exactly a strong one.
I think it comes down to how much one values guys like Webster and Batum, along with Outlaw and even Rudy. All guys who could be impacted by obtaining another SF.
And I also have to agree that whatever we all think, Pritchard apparently thought signing Turkeglu was enough of a good move not to worry about the impact to playing time of his swing players. To offer a possible mitigating circumstance, KP may have been thinking that Hedo could be utilized as a point forward in place of Blake in the lineup or as a 2nd unit PF, in order to free up some minutes for Batum, Outlaw or Webster. I don’t know and now it doesn’t matter. In the end, even though I like Turkeglu as a player, I’m not unhappy he’s playing somewhere else.
As for Jefferson, even taking the positive viewpoint that he would have made Portland a better team for this coming season, I am fine with watching Batum and Webster develop at SF. I am not in so much of a hurry to see Portland in the Finals to forego watching what may be one of the finest and most exiciting assembling of a team in quite some time.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Aug 26, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point about development
sometimes the bottom line is minutes for players like martell and nic. martell is a huge question mark because of the injury (especially the type of injury) but I think nic has a really bright future. its easy to say, well RJ could be a mentor for nic, but the reality usually is that for a player his age who prob thinks he has one more decent contract in him, he’s not going to be helping out the guy who would replace him and essentially take his money. he’s going to be playing for himself.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no one knows what blair could be or if he'll even be in the league in a few years though, you're totally right on that
we def need time to tell but I’ve only quoted ESPN writers, looked at who drafted him (arguably the most successful franchise of the decade and an excellent evaluator of talent), and mentioned he was my favorite prospect coming out of the draft.
now that the dust has settled, I’ll be rooting for dante cunningham/jeff pendergraph and booing blair when they come to the rose garden (assuming any of those guys see the court).
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miller very likely would have been available for the MLE had we not been under the cap
As are Sessions, Felton, maybe even Lee. None of them had a better offer. But that of course wasn’t known at the deadline.
by Norsktroll on Aug 26, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What ESPN geniuses voted for Emeka Okafor for "worst newcomer"?
That was a great deal for New Orleans
by Norsktroll on Aug 26, 2009 1:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
wow really?
I thought he was a pretty solid pickup. especially after N.O. had previously tried to trade chandler for spare parts and expiring contracts with the thunder who actually nixed the trade because of his toe! what a blessing in disguise for them to instead wait a few months and flip him for a stud like okafor. hard nosed rebounder/shot blocker/banger. I know he can’t shoot worth a lick but I’d want him on my team regardless of where he fit.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember a couple short years ago when people mocked Portland letting Zach go
Heh, joke’s on those tools.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Aug 26, 2009 2:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Also Sheed sucks, piggybacking a stacked team to win a title doesn't make him any less sucky
Let’s ask Ruben Boumtje Boumtje what a nice guy and great teammate Sheed is.
He’s going to make Boston worse, they were old and done anyway but he’ll hasten the process.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Aug 27, 2009 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
one can hope!
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Aug 28, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
RT: lets talk about it. Make them accessible in post game conferences.
Yes! This has been my suggestion for years. Let the local beat writer hold the “clicker” and go back through the game’s controversial calls and ask the lead ref “what the ____ were you thinking on that call?”
the ref’s response could be very educational for everyone
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Aug 26, 2009 3:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Refs getting health benefits cut?
They better not be dropping their vision plan. We as fans have enough to complain about. Maybe they will just be dropping dental coverage. Referees don’t need teeth to blow a whistle… or to swallow a whistle for that matter.
by NWfan on Aug 26, 2009 3:39 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
No way are the Blazer's could have been this year what SA will be.
Their big three (Duncan, Parker & Ginobili) have won championships together. Adding RJ and Blair to our team is much different than adding them to a team that has “been there, done that” and can help guide them in SA.
"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."
by GonzoFan on Aug 26, 2009 8:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the blazers were arguably better than the spurs last year (taking 3 of 4).
I know the spurs didn’t have many games where their big 3 was at full strength…but thats the whole point. timmy has a lot of mileage on him and manu is extemely injury prone.
manu will miss games this year. I’m not really going out on a limb here when I say that. the whole team was pretty old (especially their best player although he is still very good) last year and our team is actually going to be better with another year under the belt. Right now the two “cores” are very evenly matched. the spurs’ are declining and the blazers’ are rising. the difference is (not counting injuries) the major additions. in this case, RJ for the spurs.
I know the spurs have won championships, no one has to remind me of that. but their core is aged and injury prone. as crazy as it sounds, if they are contenders this year it is from the influx of youth/talent that will push them over the top. that and a lot of luck to keep those creaky knees going.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 26, 2009 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see it.
If Duncan is healthy he’s arguably still the best PF in the West. He averaged 18 and 8 during the playoffs last season while playing extremely hurt. If he’s even a little more rested this year his numbers should be improved. I wouldn’t write him off just yet, he’s only 33 after all. That’s not insanely old for a guy who doesn’t really rely on his athleticism anyway. I would be much more worried about Manu, but even then, he’s only 32 and will be much more rested then he was last season.
The Spurs (If healthy) have a top 5 SG, a top 5 PF, and a top 5 PG.
The Blazers (If healthy) have a top 3 SG.
In the end it’s all going to come down to health, but it’s not like the Blazers have been the perfect example of durability either.
by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 26, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hope this will help
LA in the playoffs: 19.5 pts 7.5 rebs 1.67 blocks. he’s going to be slightly better this year
Duncan: [your stats] he’s going to be slightly less effective this year
Andre Miller playoffs (tough to compare with another team of course): 21 pts 6 rebs 5 assts (Andre is also 33 years old and he’s been called ancient! so I have to say he’ll prob be slightly less effective this year, although again, its difficult to say on a whole other team with better players around him. I would guess more assists, less points)
Parker: 28.6 pts 7 assts 4 rebs
Brandon Roy playoffs: 26.7 pts 3 and 5
Manu (no playoff stats cause he was hurt…again, manu may be a top 5 SG-though I would debate that-when he’s completely healthy but he’s never completely healthy. no one can predict the future but Manu has shown he is prone to injury. that doesn’t get better with age. anyway, here last season’s stats): 15.5 pts 4 and 5
I’ve been saying our cores are very comparable because even though the stats are essentially a wash (or if anything, the blazers have the edge) the spurs have an advantage in experience but the blazers have an advantage in “almost” core guys (Greg, Rudy, etc.). Its a fair match and should make for some great games this year. The difference for the spurs will be RJ, or an injury. Not their big 3 getting into a time machine.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 27, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duncan won't be slightly less effective.
He was hurt last year and he’s only 33. I can’t remember the last time he’s had such quality depth surrounding him. Barring a major injury, he will be more rested and will almost certainly make a positive rebound. I don’t see any signs of him falling off in production.
TIM DUNCAN PLAYOFF PER
1997-98: 20.4
1998-99: 25.1
2000-01: 25.4
2001-02: 31.8
2002-03: 28.4
2003-04: 24.1
2004-05: 24.9
2005-06: 30.4
2006-07: 27.4
2007-08: 21.9
2008-09: 27.3
I just don’t see the comparisons to the Spurs. Duncan is sooooo much better than LMA when healthy. Parker was the best PG in the playoffs last year. Manu is only a half step behind Roy when healthy. McDyess ( 13 and 9) is better than Oden at this point.
We have exactly one advantage, and that’s Roy. Overall the Spurs are a much, much, better team when healthy.
Better PF, PG, C, SF, and Coach.
by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 27, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
with age comes experience (+) but also physical deterioration (-).
Roy is considerably better than manu but only to the same extent that TP is better than andre miller. the LA / Duncan debate hinges on a creaky knee that is turning 34. Its not a huge leap to assume that ANY nba player who is turning 34 will lose at least some production. Duncan is no exception. I know it doesn’t seem that old but his prime was 3 years ago.
next year even if (and thats a big if for that old a team) the spurs’ core are all healthy, they just aren’t head and shoulders above our guys anymore. I’ve already provided the stats to prove that point. If anything, its the pieces they’ve added in the offseason which was the whole point to this. RJ is a big freaking deal and (I’m speculating) he would have been just as big a deal to our team.
As for McDeyss…you can have him, I’ll take Oden :)
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Aug 27, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't see a stat that "proved" anything.
The gap between Parker and Miller is much larger than the gap between a healthy Manu and Roy. PER isn’t the golden measure of anything, but it’s pretty accurate when comparing offensive efficiency.
PER
Parker: 23.47
Miller: 18.71
Roy: 24.08
Ginobli (2008): 24.07
Duncan: 24.51
Aldridge: 19.3
Oden: 18.13
McDyess: 16.63
The Spurs have a net PER advantage of 8.2. There isn’t a statistical measure in the world that’s going to rank the Blazer’s core higher than the Spur’s when all the players are healthy. I just don’t see it. It might “feel” like the Blazers are close to Spurs, but statistically speaking it’s just not true.
Health will be the deciding factor, but the Spurs (when healthy) have a much, much, much, much better core group of players than the Blazers.
by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 27, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't see it...
Now it sounds like you’re saying their big three is old and decrepit. Is ours?
"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."
by GonzoFan on Aug 27, 2009 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
McDyess?
Are we serious?
There is no way the Spurs are better than us at the 5. We have a top 5 (at least) rebounder and quality shotblocker for 48 mpg.
The only way the Spurs can beat us at the 5 is if they play Duncan there — and then, LMA is easily superior to anyone they run out at the 4.
McDyess had pretty good stats for 4 games in the playoffs, but that’s a pretty small sample size. Over the season, he had 9.6/9.8 in 30 mpg. That comes out to just under 12/12 per 36.
Oden, as a very raw rookie recovering from injury and lacking conditioning, had about 15/12 per 36, Joel had 8/13. That means Greg was already better than McDyess, and Joel was comparable.
I do agree that Duncan is likely to be more effective in the playoffs this year. He was not healthy last year, and Dallas could focus on him and Parker more than usual because Manu was out. If Manu is there, everything becomes easier for them. What they were last year is not a great measure of what they will be this year, and Jefferson makes them even better.
If the Spurs are healthy, they are probably a better team than us — but maybe not enough better to overcome home court advantage, if we get it. It could be a great series if we face them in the playoffs. I think they are more dangerous to us than the L@kers are.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
by jscot on Aug 28, 2009 3:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Per 36 minute stats are meaningless with Oden because he can't stay on the court that long.
As a whole the Blazers are certainly better at the 5. Was Oden as good as McDyess last year? I don’t know, the Pistons as a whole were terrible and Greg couldn’t stay on the court. When he was actually playing Greg was probably better overall, if just barely. Long term Oden is obviously the better bet, but If he’s still a foul magnet next season then I would go Antonio. If not for age I would go with McDyess over Joel ever day of the week. Przybilla just had a “career” season that was almost on par with what AM is doing at the age of 34.
My main point is that a healthy front line of Duncan/McDyess is way better than LMA/Oden. Obviously that could change since Aldridge and Oden are both extremely young. But I don’t think the Blazers as a whole are anywhere near the Spurs when both teams are healthy. Not even close.
by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 28, 2009 6:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Greg's fouls don't matter as much
when you have Joel to back him up. Use per 24 to compare, if it makes you happier.
You can say Antonio is better because he can stay on court longer, but it’s irrelevant because Gregzilla can stay on the floor for 48.
I see your main point, but I’m not sure it is valid. For the 20 mpg Greg played last year, Greg/LMA is not going to be too far off of Duncan/McDyess. And second year centers always do better with fouls than their rookie year. Lots of centers foul a lot as rookies and improve dramatically. To say nothing of the impact of improved conditioning on lessening fouls.
You can “assume” health for Duncan/McDyess, but if I assume health for Greg, he’s going to be a lot better than last year. And which is more likely, health for Greg or health for those old guys?
Don’t get me wrong, I think we’ll very much have our hands full with S.A. if they are healthy and we meet them in the playoffs, even if we have home court advantage. But I don’t see a huge advantage for them on the starting front line. I just don’t see any way we can handle a healthy Parker, and Manu is very dangerous. And they play superb defense. I’m not saying we lose, but they would be the favorites, no matter what happens in the regular season, if they are healthy.
But it isn’t because the 4-5 is a dominant advantage for them. It isn’t. It’s the other positions that give them an edge. Advantage for them at the 4, but our advantage at the 5 will basically neutralize that. McDyess is a nice role player.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
by jscot on Aug 29, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're really underestimating Duncan.
He won a championship playing next to Oberto for crying out loud. He is sooooo much better than LMA, even last year when he was hurt, that you could stick almost any decent role player next to him and the Spurs have a big man advantage over us. Trade Oden/Pryzbilla for Bonner/Oberto and the Blazers might not even make the playoffs. Tim Duncan can carry a team, Aldridge not so much.
It all comes down to health, which is a big mystery. But all things being equal the Spurs core is much, much better than the Blazers core. Until Blazers win multiple championship (or get out of the first round) I don’t see how you can compare the two.
by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 29, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The last half of the season
LMA played like an all-star. Not like a healthy Duncan, but like an all-star. And I don’t think Timmy is an MVP any more. He’s still great, but on the decline, even if healthy.
I think you are underestimating the gap at center.
I hope they are healthy, even if we end up the 2-3 seeds and they knock us out in the second round. They would be a great team to measure ourselves against in the playoffs. I would love to see us battle them for 6-7 games — it might do more for our future championship hopes than beating an injury-weakened team.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
by jscot on Aug 31, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a long time Blazer fan friend
Who cuts nobody any slack,hated every Jail Blazer except Sheed whom he has a soft spot for because “he has mental health problems” while ranting about every other tatoo covered gangsta in the league,go figure.My self I think hes a jerk.
by southern oregon on Aug 26, 2009 8:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sheed is awesome.
every other tatoo covered gangsta in the league
I’m not really sure I follow you. Is Rasheed a gangster? Do you have the inside scoop on all the gang-bangers around the league, or are you just assuming every young black male with tattoos is affiliated with organized crime? Strange perceptions going on here.
by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 26, 2009 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i also love Sheed
always will. I am much more of a jerk watching the games than he ever was playing. My niece was his nanny for a spell and said he was the nicest man and one of the best fathers she ever saw
"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy
by Honka Playboy on Aug 26, 2009 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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