The Winning Edge
by Dave on Aug 23, 2009 11:53 PM PDT
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PrintReader Chip left a nice note in my inbox over the weekend talking about the site and asking a simple question: "What's the single biggest thing the Blazers need in order to succeed in the coming season?"
After a summer full of rumors, moves, draft picks. contracts, and more opinions on more subjects than I can recall from any off-season ever you're probably expecting an esoteric answer. "Integrating Andre Miller" or "Making Oden comfortable in the pick and roll" or "Shifting responsibility for screen defense" would all be acceptable answers. There are probably a dozen more available as well. But the one I'm going to pick is the same one I started the off-season with. One word...
Confidence.
This team has talent. This team is growing in experience. A few odd pieces aside, this team fits well together as well. Those are great qualities. But the best quality of all may be their expression and enforcement of their will. I've seen the Blazers lose games because they were fatigued, outmatched, or simply caught by surprise on a given night. Those are part and parcel of growing up in the NBA. But I've not seen this team beat itself very often. I've not seen this team accept losing or pile unacceptable losses on top of understandable ones. There's something intangible about this team, an aura that permeates it. That aura radiates winning. You can knock them left or right. Sometimes you can even stop them in their tracks. But they don't go backwards. They don't fall apart. They don't surrender. They feel like they were born to win.
This is not a common quality. Before Bill Walton went down the '77 team had it. You never asked questions about that squad. You just knew they would take care of business. I loved the Clyde teams, but looking back on that era with some perspective (and retroactively examining how I processed things then) I now understand that the early '90's Blazers, even while amassing an astonishing victory total, didn't have that aura of invincibility. They won and won and won...until they lost. Once they started losing they had a hard time getting it back. This didn't show up in the regular season much, as they were clearly better than nearly every team they played. But we saw it in spades in those critical playoff series. If you hit those teams squarely in the nose they'd turn back. The same could be said of the late '90's Rasheed-Damon-Pippen squad. They were great but they weren't made of steel. They could, and did, fracture in the face of harder competitors.
We have not yet seen the Brandon Roy Blazers retreat. They've lost. By winning percentage they haven't proven themselves to be at the level of any of the teams just mentioned. But every season, every month, sometimes from game to game, they've grown. And they've refused to let anyone or anything get in the way of that growth. There's something about them that just screams "winning". As long as they keep that air they're going to do inceredibly well once the other factors that leave them short of the competition (experience mostly at this point) even out.
The Blazers have a history of finding a way to lose. This team has been nursed on finding ways to win. If they retain that pattern and their confidence they're going to be just fine no matter what the answers to all of those other questions turn out to be.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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I honestly believe
some of that is due to the often maligned tendency to leave starters in when the game is won. Never let your opponent take the initiative away from you. Aside from the end of the season we rarely started the game with the initiative, but we won because by the end of the game it was deep in our pockets. Hornet announcers aside, I think the league is starting to figure that out.
I don’t think Nate has shown he is a champion in-game coach (at least not yet), but I can’t imagine a better talent developer out of the working coaches in the NBA right now.
I'd like to see the team start the game with initiative too
I’d like the Blazers to own the game from the tip instead of relying on Roy’s closing power. The team could rack up a few more wins just by not falling behind by 10 points.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
Another pt on falling behind
The Blazers last year in spite of their magnificence play were still new at picking up stints and defenses thrown at them. We started out most games pretty close because we were getting the ball to LMA and he was scoring. Then it seemed like we went away from him. But, I have read that is was because the defense changed their stint around so fast that the Blazers couldn’t figure it out. Because of that we couldn’t move the ball, start settling for jump shots and would fall behind. Travis said that same thing in a interview, "It takes a quarter to figure out what the opposing team is throwing at us". Therefore contrary to your statement, I think Nate was the main tool in changing our offense to expose what they were giving us. It was said by a favorite poster of mine on Barrett’s Blog with a handle of Steven, “that most teams can not take something away without giving up something and once you figure that out and expose it they can’t use that stint again.” by half time coach shows the tapes and the team adjust and we either come back and win or at least make a dog fight out of the game.
I do agree that lots of the reason for getting behind through is relying on BRoy to much in the 3rd and Fourth quarter. Plus BRoy spends much of the first half in the background trying to get his teammates involved or maybe conserving energy. Once BRoy kicks it up and takes the initiative, we get back in the game.
I do agree that taking the initiative and keeping it is our biggest success story last year. The home Laker games are a good example of that. When we play proactive instead of reactive, no team can beat us easily.
Great post by the way
hg
by BBK on Aug 24, 2009 6:18 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think Andre Miller will help with recognition of what opposing defenses are doing
This came out during his interview with Nate in Vegas. When Andre is on the floor, I don’t think this will be as much of a problem as in the past. He’ll tell the rest of the players where to go and what to do, and eventually they’ll start seeing the different schemes that opposing teams try during the games and start making the “adjustments” as a unit
(but this will depend upon each individual player’s experience and BBIQ, of course…)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
So much of the nursing to win can be atributed to Coach McMillan
Nate has taught this group how to win wars and not just the battles. The learned the hard part first; gruleing out games in slow steady deliberate fashion. Now that is not the prettiest way to win. Nor did it garners more wins two or three seasons ago. However the tame has learned to walk well with their heads upright. Now they will start to run. The final piece the Blazers have yet to show is to win through defense. Shut the other team down. WE could stop an option but then another appeared. We need to see the D work on all cylinders so that the opposing tema never gets an open look off. Nate has always had the ability to get his teams to outplay expectations. This is Nate’s challenge year, to win more with expectations so very high. The season takes on new purpose; to get enough wuins to secure homecourt. And the Playoffs are all about advancing and advancing again. Confidence this team should just be oozing with it as it will deliver what all your fans want and desire.
This is an important point
The one playoff game we won by margin (11 pts) was game 5 in which we played really good defense the last 3 quarters and overall a defensive rating of 88.7. We were cold ourselves some of that game but defense carried us through. If the constant is great defense you can win most games even if your shooting % is down.
Dave is right; the team needs that "IT" factor
You can see it in the eyes of just about every championship team from the last decade (except Miami; I firmly believe they were handed that one): the “I’m better than you” killer instinct.
Or, to rob Rocky III, the “Eye of the Tiger”.
We need that.
Blazers win!
by The X-man on Aug 24, 2009 1:49 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Dave makes a good point....
I also agree with NWfan that this is somewhat of a make or break year…….think about it……basically four things could happen.
1: we improve, maybe win a playoff series…..maybe even go all the way(maybe, but not likely)
2: we get the same result as last year, 50 or so wins, home court, and bounced in the first round. People will instantly call for Nates job, not everyone but some.
3: We go backwards in progression due to lack of performance.
4: We go backwards due to injury
As you can see in my “thoeretical” scenarios nate has but one good outcome for him out of the four listed. I believe as we all do that due to the youth and growth this team has had together only scenario 1 is plausable but no scenario is unlikely.
Man i hope we can grow, we can develop that “eye of the tiger” as X-man said but if not i personally would not be mad……disapointed but not mad. Just my take.
by blazerbeliever97504 on Aug 24, 2009 2:59 AM PDT reply actions
I only disagree with the make or break year.
I agree with your scenarios, it is the make or break year that I disagree with. With Oden still needing time to get off the launching pad, with Andre getting adjusted to the team play, we will need another year to get to the make or break year. IMO we will improve as a team; maybe not so much in the win and loss department, but improved play because of more experience and as Dave said “more confidence”. With that being said this is a year for playing with confidence not the year for make or break.
hg
Barring injuries the team appears destined to improve
and it will be difficult not to see it happen. I agree that that improvement may not be in the wins regular season but it must be in the playoffs (and it still has to get us into the playoffs). This team got a pass last year because they had not been there before. This year it has to show the growth. If we play LA or SA in the 1st round and play them tough and hold serve on our court it may be enough to see the improvement. Any other team we need to win the 1st round and not be blown out of any round.
RT: bounced in the first round. People will instantly call for Nates job, not everyone but some.
If KP hasn’t upgraded the backup PF position and Portland gets out-scrapped for rebounds again (like against Houston, 4th quarter, game 4) I won’t be on the “fire Nate” bandwagon
KP needs to get off the “we love all of our guys” merry-go-round and look ahead to what his coach will really need, next April
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Confidence is knowing that you've got the game won
So how about crushing teams in the 1st quarter this year instead of having to come from behind? If Roy and Co. would turn it on early like they’ve shown they do in the 4th, they will be playing, and feeling, like a dominant team.
That outta be a confidence boost.
Yellow Mamba FTW!
We saw more of that at the end of the season
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
I'd agree with this
One of the things I love about the current Blazer squad is that I know that they are capable of both winning in a comeback and pulling out victories in tight games. There have been many other Blazer squads that I could not say the same about. I have more confidence in this current team to perform in the clutch than, say, the Blazer team of 10 years ago.
That being said, one of the things that frustrated me last season was that the team often found itself in the position of needing a comeback or needed to pull out a clutch win in a tight game. Slow starts or gving away leads in the middle of games – it happened too often for my tastes.
BETTER TEAM D
All the above is true, We need to see the D work on all cylinders so that the opposing team never gets an open look off, maybe not to that extent, but at least more consistent team D.
Another aspect is setting higher goals. BRoy more or less said we set our goal to make it to the play-offs. Since, we made our goal it is time to set the goal to become a champion.
Getting behind lost us games, but it also It taught us to not give up in a game. Winning in the trenches is the most important learn factor of the game. Well not blowing a big lead is right up among the top.
hg
Conditioning, Durability, and Depth equals confidence.
Last year I saw conditioning as a major issue for the Blazers. Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, Steve Blake, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Brandon Roy were all obviously pacing themselves. It is hard to establish the exact reasons, but the problem stood out to me. In many games there was a, "We’ll turn it on later," approach to the game. Very frustrating to watch as they would fall behind.
Was this merely a lack of confidence in conditioning rather than an actual conditioning problem? Was this a fear of injury? Was this a subconscious fear of the backups inability to play defense (particularly Channing and Sergio), so much so, that the starters felt we were going to experience an automatic dip anyway, "So what is the point of going hard out of the gate?" It could be one or more of these problems, but one thing we can say for sure: this is one of those hurdles that we are going to have to get over.
I used to watch the Spurs and marvel at the effort they would give, at the seeming risk of injury that they would take, as teams challenged them, even in regular season games. Over and over, they would say, by their effort , "Sorry, but not today!" I believe Lebron reflected this same mentality last year by his effort. "This, is the only game we play this year!"
This fearless, almost indestructible, nearly robotic, type of effort is what I would like to see out of the Trailblazers this year. That is the confidence we need, the reputation of going all out; the belief that we can break the other teams heart by our shear relentlessness. With our effort and energy, we say, "You might as well save yourself for tomorrow night man, cause we are plain goin to out work you!" "Long season, "What are YOU talking about?"
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
Maybe they were physically out of shape.
I often said last year that whoever was ahead after the first quarter usually lost the game. Other Words if we started strong we ended weak, if we started weak we ended strong.
Great possibility that we was trying to get the right pace to the game, but it was also a possiblility that we were out of shape.
hg
Scoreboard watching does not win games, but consistent effort does!
I think there is truth in what you are saying. There are typically ebbs and flows in an NBA game. The team that starts out fast on the scoreboard does not always finish the game strong. Staying "in" the game is the issue in the first half for most teams. We hear terms like staying, "in contact," as way of referencing an expected, "push," that a team is hoping to make as the game unfolds. Knowing about this pattern though, is not enough. The way the game within the game plays out must be taken advantage of.
The best teams start putting their foot down on their opponent (effort, intensity) right from the beginning of the game (even though they know it won’t look like the game was decided there). Confidence in their own conditioning definitely plays a role here. The opposing team is forced to go all out from the start just to hang in the game, maybe even gaining a slight lead. All the while the pressure and intensity are taking their toll, and the lesser team begins to break down.
The, "confident," team surges ahead on the score board by simply maintaining a level of play that the other team can’t continue to match. Shots that were contested earlier are no longer contested. The will power to be physical has evaporated. And things get a whole lot easier for the good team.
In sort of an illusion, the game may look like it was decided in the third or fourth quarter, but the truth of the matter is that the real beginning of the end was in the first quarter. Sort of like body punches in the early rounds of a fight, it’s not always the scoreboard that counts, it’s about who is in the best shape, and who can withstand the punishment and be ready in the later rounds.
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
by KINGofMACct on Aug 24, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'll buy that.
I feel the same way. I don’t know when a player has his head on Mars money, or if he is pacing himself.
I made the statement that being behind in the first quarter made us tougher in the tranches at the end of the game. But, you are saying it was the other team that burnt out in the first half? I know that the spurs often did that on the road. They played good enough to stay in the game and at the right time go for the kill.
Last year I seen many games when I thought we were in control and was going to win the game and then I could see their defense tighten up and we would lose. Some times we did the killing at the end of the games.
From what everybody says, this year might be different because Andre can control the pace better then BRoy.
One more thing, I feel that 10 points behind or 10 points ahead is still an even game. Am I close to being right? The media makes a big deal out of coming from a 10 point deficiency to win the game. To me that is no big deal.
hg
How about a sliding scale?
To be within 10 points at the end of the half or at the end of the third quarter are the rules of thumb that I have heard repeatedly from announcers. The 10 at half, I’ll buy, there is quite a bit of time left, but at the third quarter mark I would like to be under 10.
As an example, let’s say that an average 4th quarter is 24 points. That would mean, on average, that the team coming from behind would have to score 24 points while holding the other team to 13 points, or some combination close to that. Even if you jump the point totals by 5 points on each side to 18 and 29, the trailing team is going to have to be very good defensively to win in this manner with any consistently.
The pace of the game, the ability to play defense, as well as late game playmakers, all factor in to what it means to, "maintain contact." Each team and each game are measured on a sliding scale, if you will. Some teams just won’t die while other teams seem to want to roll over.
I try to get a "feel" for a particular game early on. I remember seeing the fire and confidence oozing from the Philadelphia 76ers in the games we played them last year. Even believing we were the better overall team, I knew that it was going to be difficult to shake their obvious conviction that they were going to beat us—even at home. Against that team last year, falling behind at all was not such a good option because, for whatever reason, they had that killer instinct against us.
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
Thank you for the info
I can see that. It depends on the team we are playing against and the time left in the game. That makes since. Being behind a team that lets you back in the game is not nearly as bad as a team that got solid D. I hate the Lakers but I would not want to be behind in a game with them in the whole second half, because of their ability to drive in the dagger.
Again thanks for the info. it makes since.
hg
I would not say confidence so much as consistency.
We were able to come back from being down by a lot, which is good but we were down by a lot, which is bad. Championship-level teams don’t fall behind double-digits nearly as easily as we did. That will come with experience I should hope as they learn to play less run to run and more consistently.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
RT: "What's the single biggest thing the Blazers need in order to succeed in the coming season?"
the other factors that leave them short of the competition (experience mostly at this point)
At the risk of sounding like a broken record (do most of the young Bedgers even know what a “broken record” sounds like? It’s kind of like that sound the DJ makes during rap songs ) my take is that Portland has a kick-butt regular season roster, as long as their 3 main big guys stay healthy. But regular season results are not what we should be focusing on, anymore. The Blazers have grown up and from now on will be measured against the other contending teams by how many playoff series they win.
As we learned last year, 54 wins means little if you blink and lose your home court advantage in game 1 against a playoff-hardened roster. So, what’s the answer? Harden your roster in preperation for next year’s post season. Has KP done that? Sort of, he added Miller, but Andre is not like Billups, he hasn’t been to the conference finals for 5 years in a row (like “Mr. Big Shot” was, with the Pistons and Denver)
Antonio McDyess would’ve been a great addition to backup LMA, but he went to a more-veteran, championship-experienced team in the Spurs. Was KP even pursuing McDyess? Would it have made a difference to AD’s decision if he had? Who knows, but the point is, Portland still needs to add at least one more playoff-experienced big man to the roster, and subtract Travis Outlaw (who clearly played like a “fish out of water” against Houston last April) A banger. A beast. Someone who will add “chippy” behavior around the basket area.
It’s great that the young Blazers have shown a “killer instinct” during the regular season, but to reach the next level that has to translate to post-season toughness, and there’s only one “shortcut” to gaining that experience—add veterans who have been there already and know the ropes. Miller was a good step in that direction, but Blazer fans should not be content that he was the only veteran addition necessary for KP to infuse “toughness and physicality” to harden his upcoming playoff roster.
The “last piece” is a veteran banger and this needs to be added before the February trading deadline. If this task is left unfinished (like it was last Feb) the Blazer’s post-season will be in jeopardy of being derailed by an injury to a key big man, or the team will run up against a more-experienced contender who will steal their playoff lunch money again, just like the Rockets did last April
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't think you should count last year play-offs
This team was just trying to make the play-offs and get experience.
Don’t you think they learned and will do much much better next year. Would you sell the farm because of one bad year. Even if you think last year was a bust, it is feasible this young group of guys can do much better next year just because of confidence.
hg
Who's talking about selling the farm?
I’m talking about replacing Outlaw (for a variety of reasons) and replacing his roster spot with one veteran PF. That’s it
Last winter/spring I made this point: Frye and Outlaw weren’t going to provide enough post defense and rebounding to help Portland in the post season. Then the Blazers drew the Rockets in round 1 and my suspicions were confirmed. Frye is gone, and he’s been “replaced” by 2 rookie PFs (they should be OK playing spot minutes during the regular season, but you can’t count on them to be major playoff contributers) Travis has an expiring contract, will want more money than Portland is likely to offer him and wants to continue paying a role that will be impossible to maintain unless other Blazer wing players are missing in action.
So yes, I think the Blazers as a whole will be “more ready” to compete next April in the playoffs. But no, I don’t think they currently have enough veteran experience backing up LMA at the PF position to make an extended playoff run.
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I do like McDyess and would have cheered his addition
But we don’t know what transpired there. If reason holds, he is better of in SA than Portland to win this year. Adding Jefferson made them the favorites.
I do think Miller was more important than McDyess and we did not have much money left once Miller was aboard.
We also cannot know how the chemistry would work here. Nate and KP have a much better handle on that then I can know.
Finally this is not the final product this year and not the final year in the re-building. A wise coach once said about keeping (or acquiring veterans) “You can’t stop progress” (Bill Parcells). You have a young organization that needs to grow internally. Will that be enough? Stay tuned for the next 5-10 years!
RT: A wise coach once said about keeping (or acquiring veterans) "You can’t stop progress" (Bill Parcells)
If there ever was a coach who preferred to play vets over rookies (well, besides George Allen…) it would have to be the Tuna
But I’m not talking about replacing all of the 20 year olds with 30+ years olds, and trading away every draft choice for the next 10 years. My main roster “adjustment” would be taking a 6 year player (Outlaw) and replacing him with an 8-12 year banger, who has been to the playoffs multiple times. That doesn’t seem like a big deal, right? But it could be huge to have a veteran PF in May, or sooner if LMA/Joel/Greg were to miss a stretch of games due to injury
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Thanks, Dave
Nice article… I always appreciate your perspective and writing talent. I “tune in” every day :-)
Pete
I don't necessarily disagree with "confidence"
but it so….arbitrary. Not arbitrary in the sense that it is a random characteristic, but arbitrary in a “how do you make sure you got it when you need it” sort of way.
You can say we need a 7’10 center to win it all, go search the deep valleys of Tibet and hope you find one – and then you could say you have the confidence you will win because you have the silver bullet that guarantees championships.
The US squads of recent infamy were confident. They had more athletic ability in the left thumb of their weakest players than entire squads of competitors – but they didn’t win. They had history, swagger, nay – they had CONFIDENCE – until they lost. In reality, they had false confidence because they underestimated their opponents and were not prepared to compete.
So what did it take to get the US squad back to “best in the world” status? They believed they “could” win, but they didn’t corrupt it with they “will” win. They respected their opponents, and did what they had to do to ensure victory. They prepared, and then they executed. You can control that on a team. You can prepare a team, and then give them the experience necessary to know that they can execute in the face of adversity.
The Blazers lost last year for a tangible reason – they weren’t prepared to play physical basketball in the mold of the Houston Rockets, and everyone – including the Blazer players – knew they weren’t ready. The results were predictable.
I have a feeling that this squad is going to react very strongly to physical play this year – and they are going to do it because – like Dave says – this team will learn to do whatever it takes to win under any circumstances. This year, that learning curve they have to climb isn’t nearly as steep or wide.
Isn't there a difference between individual confidence and team confidence?
Those past Olympic teams did not work because they did not grow together. For the present Gold Medalists Jerry Colangelo saw that and constructed a model of building around a 3 year commitment. They lost the World Championships in 2006 but continued to grow to the Olympics.
Just like you said about the Blazers, the USA team was not prepared for the physical style of the FIBA but learned from it. In the previous year the Blazers could not handle the intensity of the home stretch of the regular season. Last year they could. That is the confidence I see – that they can get better and thus they will.
The one thing the Blazers need is another year.
- A year for the team to adapt to Andre, and for Andre to adapt to the team.
- Another year of experience for Greg, Nic, Rudy, and Jerryd.
- Another year for young bodies to gain a bit more weight and strength.
- Another year to improve team and individual defense.
- Another year for the players’ confidence and hunger to grow.
- Another year for Fear of the Blazers to swell within the hearts of opponents.
Is that fear swelling??
or are you just happy to see me?
"I'm tired" -Me
by 92wastheyear on Aug 24, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
A point not covered enough
Last year this team was composed of three rookies in the rotation, The 2nd year usually brings the biggest jump in performance. Plus we still hope Jerryd will earn rotation minutes with a similar jump. Plus we add Martell back into the equation. Plus the four players that are gone are replaced by two promising rookies who may contribute and a veteran “coach on the floor” point guard whose combined contributions should easily eclipse the departing ones.
To me -
Confidence is knowing you can get up when knocked down and still win the fight. Confidence is knowing you can and will get better. Confidence is knowing your teammates will have your back. These are rare in teams (and we are talking about team confidence) and this team has that rare confidence and the talent to match.
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