is going to be basically impossible so I don’t really fault WoW, or PER for that matter, for doing a poor job modeling it.

The issue with the efficiency I have is that guys like Joel or Bynum are only able to get the shots they get because guys like Kobe and Brandon are taking less efficient shots. Admittedly, there’s some circular reasoning going on here with Joel or whoever being efficient because they don’t take shots and so the mere act of “forcing” them to take more shots will make them change their game, affecting their WP stats. Still, it gets me that anyone can watch an NBA game, see that Brandon/Kobe/Joe Johnson is clearly the most important player on their respective teams, and yet assert that another player is actually the most valuable (Johnson being perhaps the most egregious example on his own team with Bibby supposedly being more productive than him last year).

I understand not wanting to let “conventional wisdom” influence the regression too much and dilute the results, but there’s trusting the numbers, and then there’s just being obtuse.

On the flip side, I think the Blazers are a less than perfect case study since at least a couple other analysts are also pretty high on them. Hollinger at least touted them potential contenders to make the finals. The Rockets, on the other hand, have no one else really picking them that I’ve noticed. If they can scrape a playoff berth, maybe Berri will finally have something else to talk about besides how he “amazingly” predicted that Andre Miller would make the Sixers better than they were with Iverson.