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Whose Minutes Do You Want to See Decrease?

Being deep in the NBA is a blessing and a curse.  If you've read a season preview for the Blazers, you've probably seen the words "stocked," "two deep at every position," and  "loaded."  Music to the ears.  But when you start to crunch the minutes per game math, like I've read many of you do in various corners of this site, you start to realize pretty quickly that finding enough time for all of the Blazers' talent is going to be a difficult, if not impossible, chore for Nate McMillan. 

Minutes were already an issue at the beginning of the summer, thanks to the expected return from injury of Martell Webster, but the addition of workhorse Andre Miller broke a few more pendergraphing calculators.  Guys like Jerryd Bayless and the rookies, who thought they might get a real shot at training camp, have seen their windows of opportunity all but slammed shut.

Let's flip this minutes crunch debate a slightly different direction for our weekend discussion: Who are you looking forward to seeing play less next season?  

Go ahead and start primally if you must: is there someone's game that drives you nuts?  Get that bum off the court!?!??! If there is, politely explain why the team is better off with his role reduced.

But also feel free to go deeper: If player X is seeing less minutes, who is stepping up to take those minutes?  What impact will that have on the team?  What will that imply about the team's overall success?

Here are a few examples, starting with perhaps the most obvious candidate: Travis Outlaw.  A decrease in Outlaw's minutes would likely mean that Martell is back healthy and that the team is playing Outlaw exclusively at backup power forward.  It would also imply that the second unit is scoring effectively, as Outlaw often saw longer stretches of playing time when his fellow backups couldn't find the hoop last season. It would likely mean he gets a quicker hook when he's not hitting (an option Nate didn't always have last seaosn) or when his head isn't all there on the defensive end.

Another obvious option is Steve Blake.  Blake almost assuredly will see less minutes next season, regardless of whether he starts (God forbid) or comes off the bench, because Andre Miller's talent and durability will force even the most stubborn coach to call his number.  But Blake's steadiness makes him a difficult answer to this question: the team's efficiency under his guidance was very pleasurable to watch.  Although I was out front in campaigning for the team to upgrade its point guard position, I can't say I'm really excited to see less of Blake. But maybe you feel differently.

A similar case to Blake's, but with perhaps greater short-term and long-term implications, is Joel Przybilla.  A joy to watch play; a joy to watch pester opponents; a HUGE joy to watch rebound.  But aren't all of us (everyone besides Joel's family) hoping he sees less time next season because that would imply a developing, healthy Greg Oden.  Nate and KP have already stated that playing time at every position will be earned: a significant dip in Przybilla's time would mean Oden is avoiding foul trouble, establishing himself as a clearly superior player to Przy (which means he's getting things accomplished on the offensive end, something every Portlander is dying to see) and at least matching Pryzbilla's effectiveness on the glass.  Who would complain if those things happened, even if it meant less Joel?  

How about this one from left field: Jerryd Bayless.  It's not like Rex was on the court all that much last season so if he sees less time this year we know two things have happened: 1) Miller and Blake have completely avoided injuries 2) the two vets are doing a passable job against the league's smallest, quickest point guards. Can you really find joy in watching incredible potential rotting on the bench?  I can't. But maybe some of you (those still grinding axes about Sergio?) can.

Lastly, here's two more longshot options: Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.  Both played heavy minutes last year and both obviously figure heavily into Nate's primary rotation. A decrease in playing time for either of them would probably be something of a luxury, a signal that the team isn't playing as many tight ballgames in must-win situations as it did last year.  Whether that's because the team is opening wide margins of victory regularly or because Nate chooses to rest them a little more down the stretch, keeping miles off the futures of the franchise could have a longer-term benefit when the team fully enters its championship window. 

Enough with my examples, let's hear your votes and explanations. And, please, no cheating by saying Sergio, Channing, Ike or any of the other guys that aren't coming back.  Stick to guys that played minutes last year and are back again this season.

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

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Travis

I’d like for Martell to be healthy enough and play well enough that between him and Nic, Trout only gets minutes at the backup 4 spot. It will make it easier when we decide to let him walk at the end of his contract.

by 52therim on Aug 15, 2009 9:52 PM PDT reply actions  

I'd like to see

Przybilla’s minutes dip because it would mean Oden is getting better.

I’d also like to see Roy play fewer minutes in blowouts. Seems like all too often he was in with a 15 point lead and three minutes to go.

by GMan83201 on Aug 15, 2009 9:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Agree on both counts.

As much as we all love przy, if Oden’s natural progression as this team’s center, Przy’s minutes will have to take a hit.

On a different note, I’m not sold on either Outlaw or Webster. Many people think Webster has all this talent, but it has rarely come to fruition. I’d like to see both their numbers take a hit (technically Webster’s cant, but you know what I mean) for the sake of Batum’s development.

"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."

by Arby on Aug 15, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Dave would say...

…that at this point we should care about winning games. Forget being sentimental. I might think that in the case of Pryzbilla, he might not care some much; he’s getting paid and fewer minutes may prolong his career.

by boiseblazer22 on Aug 17, 2009 4:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Roy

I thought he was pushed a bit too much last year. But with Dre that shouldn’t be an issue this year.

by by on Aug 15, 2009 10:06 PM PDT reply actions  

With Andre Miller, obviousely Blake's minutes will go down a little

And I’d like to see the Martell of last pre-season take Outlaw’s minutes at the 3.

I get the paper, so I don't care!

by Name's Ash on Aug 15, 2009 10:13 PM PDT reply actions  

The less we see of Blake

the better our team is next year. I don’t mean that how it sounds. Blake is a great player but how Andre fits with this team will directly relate to Blakes minutes.

Life's short, Stunt it!!

by Irwin Fletcher on Aug 16, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Seeing a lot of Blake

means things are going really well and we’re keeping 33-year-old legs fresh for the playoffs.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pendergraph and Cunningham

If either of them get anything like the minutes they got last season, there’s almost certainly a big problem. ;-)

by Shawno on Aug 15, 2009 10:15 PM PDT reply actions  

Was it really necessary to even put Bayless's name in here?

I mean, the guy played half of what anyone currently on the team (excepting Martell) played last year. I think even the people most down on Bayless would like to see that him playing more because it would mean he’s earned it with Blake and Miller ahead of him. It looks like, for this season at least, we’re past the point of having to scrape minutes for a questionable backup PG because we’ve got two guys who are proven players there now.

To answer the question, though, my two guys that I’d like to see play less have to be Blake and Przy. I like Blake, and think he’s a valuable guy to have, but in the same sense that I think Anthony Carter or Lindsey Hunter circa 2004 are valuable guys to have. Nate certainly has leaned on him as a crutch the last couple years and he’s simply not a good enough player to be playing nearly 39 mpg in the playoffs given his limitations.

As for Przy, it’s all about Oden. I don’t care where he is in his conditioning or whatever when he gets back, Oden needs to be starting, period. I really see no realistic scenario that we win title(s) without Oden becoming at least a Dikembe-like playe, and for that to happen, we need to commit to him and let him work through his kinks. I know it’s been discussed ad nauseum about how we’re done “developing” players, but Oden is a player worth making an exception to that rule.

by Royster on Aug 15, 2009 10:16 PM PDT reply actions  

In order of importance, not in order of actual minutes:

1. Joel – Because it’s that important for Greg to develop. Also, Greg will be an upgrade at the offensive end where Joel can be a liability.
2. Steve – I like the idea of having someone who can push the tempo and throw the lob (a la sergio) and create for themselves (not sergio), while making better decisions and functioning like a second coach on the floor. I’m talking about Andre, of course.
3. Brandon – ‘cause it’s not a good idea to ride him as hard for as many games as we did last year.
4. Travis (with the caveat that he doesn’t show us anything new come Fall) – I like a more team-oriented game on offense and defense, so that would favor more time for Rudy, Brandon, Nic and Telly (hopefully) on the 2/3 rotation.

by Montavilla Steve on Aug 15, 2009 10:25 PM PDT reply actions   4 recs

Thanks

for saving me the time.
Nicely done.
Rec

by Sashland on Aug 15, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmmmmm. Commonly repeated myth, I think...
Greg will be an upgrade at the offensive end where Joel can be a liability.

Or rather: the offensive upgrade will be minimal, as BOTH are going to be primarily defensive players and rebounders (Pryz being the better rebounder of the two — ranked as #1 in the NBA last year as rebounder of available rebounds).

Oden last year: 21.5 minutes per game; 14.8 points per 36 minutes; 11.6 rebounds per 36 minutes; 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes.

Pryz last year: 23.8 minutes per game; 8.3 points per 36 minutes; 13.2 rebounds per 36 minutes; 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes.

Is there offensive upside with Oden? Probably.

Is there offensive upside with Pryz if guards work the ball to him like they try to work it to Oden? Probably.

I think both Centers will have big years next year, actually. And I think the 50-50 split of playing time will continue, in all likelihood.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Aug 15, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

On most offensive possessions, Joel looks like he's got lobster claws.

Thinking Joel can improve his offensive prowess going into his 10th year in the league, at age 30, is incredibly optimistic.

"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."

by Arby on Aug 15, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Joel can catch the ball and dunk it

Przy just hasn’t played alongside a superior pick and roll PG since Nick Van Exel left town

Sure, he’ll fumble the ball if the pass isn’t on the money, but he’ll make himself available and Miller should dish Joel the rock more often than Blake did, when they’re in the game together

I’m ot worried about offense from the center position. Both Oden and Przy should set picks and stay around the basket area to get most of their points on dunks and put back lay-ins

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 16, 2009 12:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, Joel can catch the ball!

That was pretty much a new feature of his game last year. He dropped very few passes, and he wound up with a shooting percentage near the top of the league. He even cut through the lane and caught the ball on the run. I’m not saying he should be a major option, but he isn’t the guy who drops the ball all the time, anymore.

by Kaboomm on Aug 16, 2009 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'll third that.

I started paying more attention to Joel last year in situations where someone passed the ball inside to him. After all the bad press he’s received here about his hands of stone, I was pleasantly surprised to see that, while no one will ever mistake him for Chris Webber, he seldom fumbled the ball when the pass was within his comfort zone. And he’s trying to do more with it too, while not getting crazy in there.

by MiledAnimal on Aug 16, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pryz was also playing with broken hands last year.

We might be able to expect a bit more offense from him with two functioning hands.

by wingzeta on Aug 16, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

No he didn't. He broke his hand against the rim

in game 75 (San Antonio) of the 2007-2008 season and didn’t play another game that season. Joel’s so tough that he didn’t even notice the break. Tim Duncan had to tell him, “Dude, you broke your hand!”

by MiledAnimal on Aug 17, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oden is a lot better at dunking than Przy

Oden is simply a much more explosive leaper than Przybilla, he has about 8" of advantage in vertical leap. Oden can catch the ball at the free-throw line, take 1 step and dunk. Przybilla pretty much has to be right under the basket in order to dunk, and he can’t elevate over defenders the way Oden can.

by trk on Aug 16, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Our offensive philosophy would have to change to not use Oden as an offensive weapon

The plan has been to play Oden in the low post and force double-teams to stop him – thereby opening up shooters. Outside-in. Yes, LaMarcus does this well. But not good enough to draw consistent double-teams. Greg will force that with his monster dunks.

I expect Greg to score around 15 points and Joel around 8 next year. But Greg should also average 4-5 assists per game hitting the open shooter. To me that is an offensive force.

by lee3022 on Aug 16, 2009 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

rec

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 1:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

actually, Oden’s point advantage is mostly due to his advantage on the offensive boards. He grabs a fair percentage more than Joel, often ending in a putback or two foul shots.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 15, 2009 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think it was due to poor conditioning. He was huffing and puffing every time he got to the line.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 16, 2009 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

You could have a point there

I was surprised when Greg shot somewhere around 70% left handed in college, and then showed up with his right hand shooting worse.

Romance me with that Roy rainbow shot which took flight from way beyond the arc and sailed so high that before it came back down to earth sealing the victory, it kissed the rafters and said "You're mine baby."

by Blazer1342 on Aug 16, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think this is correct

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 1:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

(Post error-full post) Last year Oden's offense was offensive

and he still was more productive offensively. [A bit surprised by the rebound edge to P per 36] O has a much higher upside on offense than P. Miller will make a big difference.

Maybe the topic questions should be a little different:

Who Needs more time: Oden, Nic, Rudy,
Who takes time: Webster, Miller
Who Needs less time: ROY, LMA
Who’s time will be knocked down (and are pros enough to deal with it): Blake, Pryz
Who wants more but gets garbage only: Bayless and Rookies
Who’s In ’N Out of time: Outlaw

I agree that both Centers should have good years but I’m expecting and hoping that Oden gets more run time cause he really needs it more the Joel. And I like Ebony and Ivory (aka Twin Towers) for dealing with bruiser back-up 4’s. You gonna try to push them around? I remember one set where Oden just lifted up Yao off the low block with a little hip push – I think the refs missed it, but Yao didn’t. I just hope Greg can learn, soon, to keep his hands to himself – one USA clip showed him giving a needless show in the bag to an opposing guy trying to block a teammates shot. Nate needs to let him foul out a few times if he needs to learn that he is literally benching himself.

by Sashland on Aug 15, 2009 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think I like the original form better

“a needless show in the bag” or better yet “needlessly show him the bag”

"I'm tired" -Me

by 92wastheyear on Aug 16, 2009 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Greg > Joel offensively

by far.

Greg has much better hands.

Greg can get the ball in the low post, a quick step around the defender, and he’s dunked it.

Joel is never going to be an offensive force. Ultimately, Joel has to be open, whether it is because of a pick and roll or his defender helping shut down penetration. The guards should look to Joel in those cases (especially the pick and roll) and he could get a few more points. But Greg is going to be much, much more than that offensively, perhaps this year, certainly by next year.

Bill Bayno turned Z-Bo into a force on the low post. If he could do that, what do you think he can do with a player with Greg’s size, strength, and athleticism?

I find myself agreeing more and more with timbo these days, but on this one, timbo is wrong.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 16, 2009 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

I find myself agreeing more and more with timbo

…and on this one he’s right. Of course, I’m a Przy fan. But this conception that offensive ability is measured only in ability to dunk in traffic or have offensive moves I take exception to.

Here is why Przybilla is not a liability on offense:
1. NObody, and I mean NObody, sets better picks than Przybilla.
2. He is always moving, always active, making the extra pass around the perimeter from the top of the key, diving to the hoop
3. At one point in the season he was shooting something like 85% from the field. I don’t care if they were mostly open dunks. It’s not like you get more points if you dunk over someone versus when you’re wide open. 85% is an incredible percentage in the NBA, and you don’t dismiss that.
4. Some of LaMarcus’s offensive rebounds came because the opposing center was having to battle Przy to keep him off the boards. LaMarcus was then able to beat his man and grab the board.
5. He’s now not only a decent free throw shooter, but even a good one, considering the center position.

Now, most of these can also be attributed to Oden. But don’t dismiss Przy as an “offensive liability” when the things he does are all positive on the offensive end. He knows his limits and doesn’t jack up 15 footers. This leaves more shots for the guys that need them—Brandon, LaMarcus, Miller, Webster, Outlaw.

"HA HA HA HA HA
I'm not laughing, I'm just listing the five ugliest Blazers ever."
- rockingharder

by jamon51 on Aug 16, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

The thing that makes Przybilla so bad at offense is the fact that guys help off of him...

…and the other team doesn’t pay for it. Przybilla had one of the lowest usage rates in the league last season (and every season). The fact that he shoots such a high percentage and didn’t get the ball much paints the picture fairly well. Plus-minus stats show this every year. Despite a year of low turnovers and high shooting percentages relatively speaking for Przybilla, the team was still more than 4 points per 100 possessions worse on offense with Przybilla on the floor. I would call Oden mediocre last year on offense, and the team was more than 5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.

The above factors limit his negative impact on offense to some degree, but he was still clearly poor on offense last season IMO.

by poster on Aug 16, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with Poster
The thing that makes Przybilla so bad at offense is the fact that guys help off of him…


He’s not enough of a threat on the offensive end and it hurts his team. He does set great picks though. Maybe that will rub off on Greg.

Life's short, Stunt it!!

by Irwin Fletcher on Aug 16, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pryz broke his hands. I think if his hands are okay this year...

They can throw him the ball more, and expect him to catch it. Oden still has a lot more offensive upside, but if Pryz is healthy and has plays run for him, he can up his scoring by a few buckets a game. I’m sure Miller will get all the credit for our centers increasing their scoring this year, as everyone conveniently forgets about Joel’s injured hands, and the fact that Greg was an out of shape rookie who couldn’t hang onto the ball last year. Nate didn’t run plays for them, because they were liabilities last year for the above reasons. That should change this year no matter who gives them the ball.

by wingzeta on Aug 16, 2009 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Joel was a liability on offense

before he hurt his hand. Even last year, he had the best year of his career with regards to turnovers, so I’m not sure how much you can really say it’s hindered him.

As far as running plays “for” him, unless you count him receiving the ball off a screen, there is simply no way that Joel should ever have a play called for him given that, at any given time, he’ll be by far the worst offensive player on the court.

by Royster on Aug 16, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Joel was a liability on offense" ???

Factor in how many offensive rebounds he got, or how many times he made it possible for another Blazer to get an offense rebound, which led to our second chance points. Then factor in how many defensive rebounds he got that prevented the other team from getting second chances and allowed us to go on offense instead. A lot goes into his contribution to our offensive output.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Really?

Sure, if you’re going to factor in defensive rebounds of all things as counting towards a player’s offensive contribution you can call Joel an adequate offensive contributor. Do we also factor in the improved defense leading to more missed shots and thus more fast break opportunities?

Is he as bad on offense as an Erick Dampier? Doubtful, but Joel is most definitely a significantly sub-par offensive player. He has a couple decent skills (rebounding and setting screens) but just because he’s not a complete stiff on that end of the court doesn’t mean that he’s a threat.

by Royster on Aug 17, 2009 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, everyone knows Joel isn't a major individual offensive contributor.

But in the end what matters is that we score more points than our opponents, and he is a major contributor to that in many ways that don’t just show up in offensive statistics. I believe offense does start with defense – a rebound, a blocked shot, a steal, etc. Then an offensive rebound, blocking off an opponent so a teammate gets an offensive rebound, a pick or screen, etc. also matter to the team’s offensive production.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 17, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

If we actually ran

off of Joel’s blocked shots and defensive rebounds, then you could count those as offensive weapons.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Dean Oliver's Offensive Rating for Joel

was 124 last year – meaning he scored 124 per 100 possessions – higher than any other Blazer (Brandon was 123). That is not a liability. He was not the asset that many others provided but not a liability.

by lee3022 on Aug 17, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

The fact that it was higher than Brandon's

should tell be all the sniff test you need for that one.

by Royster on Aug 17, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

but our offense was worse with Przybilla in the game. As poster said, teams are free to double off Przybilla and are rarely punished for doing so.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 16, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't say that
But don’t dismiss Przy as an "offensive liability"

Some people may be saying that, but I didn’t, jamon. I said this:

Joel is never going to be an offensive force.

There’s a big gap between “not a force” and “a liability”.

Joel’s major contribution on offense comes in setting picks and on the offensive boards. And as you rightly state, his threat on the offensive boards helps our other players to get offensive boards as well.

Joel is not a liability because he knows his limitations.

But Greg is already better on the offensive boards. Greg’s offensive rebounding pct was higher than Joel’s, and our team’s offensive rebounding pct was astronomical when Greg was in the game, because of the same effect Joel brings — everyone else got better chances at the offensive rebound, too.

So in the one area that Joel really excelled, Greg already exceeded him, and somehow I think Greg can learn to set a pick as well as Joel pretty quickly — like, about two weeks in training camp with Andre telling him, “Not like that, like this.” There’s no sophisticated technique involved in setting picks, just concentration/focus.

How often do we see Joel catch the ball with his back to the basket, and a man on him, and take a quick step, elevate, and dunk over the guy? Greg does that, Joel doesn’t. That means you already need to fear him in the low post, and he is going to constantly draw double-teams — how often does Joel draw a double team in the low post?

And Greg can pass effectively out of the low post to an open man as well. Joel?

I love what Joel brings. He knows his limitations, and doesn’t try to exceed them. And his FT shooting is iron-clad proof that he works on his weaknesses, too. I don’t think you could rightly call him “stone-hands” anymore, which is more proof — someone has been working on catching the ball the last couple of years. He’s one of the heroes of our progress.

But he will never be an offensive force. Greg will, and very possibly this year. Joel will probably always be the fifth offensive option when he is on the floor, unless he is guarded by pygmies like the Warriors tried once a couple years ago. Greg is likely to be no lower than the third offensive option.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 1:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

It will be very interesting at about the halfway point of the season

to see how this comparison between Joel and Greg shapes up. Last year we were basically comparing a rookie, out of shape, off MF surgery, against Joel. While I was happy to see Joel have a little more offense last year, I’m not expecting too much more from him this year.
I believe if Greg comes out this year in shape, learns how to control his foul situation, there won’t be a question of who deserves to start. It’ll be Greg.

Romance me with that Roy rainbow shot which took flight from way beyond the arc and sailed so high that before it came back down to earth sealing the victory, it kissed the rafters and said "You're mine baby."

by Blazer1342 on Aug 16, 2009 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Last year Oden's offense was offensive

and he still was more productive offensively. [A bit surprised by the rebound edge to P per 36] O has a much higher upside on offense than P. Miller will make a big difference.

Maybe the topic questions should be a little different:

Who Needs more time: Oden, Nic, Rudy,
Who takes time: Webster, Miller
Who Needs less time: ROY, LMA
Who’s time will be knocked down (and are pros enough to deal with it): Blake, Pryz
Who wants more but gets garbage only: Bayless and Rookies
Who’s In ’N Out of time: Outlaw

I agree that both Centers should have good years but I’m expecting and hoping that Oden gets more run time cause he really needs it more the Joel. And I like Ebony and Ivory (aka Twin Towers) for dealing with bruiser back-up 4’s. You gonna try to push them around? I remember one set where Oden just lifted up Yao off the low block with a little hip push – I think the refs missed it, but Yao didn’t. I just hope Greg can learn, soon, to keep his hands to himself – one USA clips showed him giving a needless show in the bag to an opposing guy trying to block a teammates shot. Nate needs to let him foul out a few times if he needs to learn that he is literally benching himself.

by Sashland on Aug 15, 2009 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

agreed

i’d swap steve for joel.

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by Philthyanimal on Aug 16, 2009 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

That'd be Sergio and Channing Frye and Michael Ruffin — so it's all good...
is there someone’s game that drives you nuts? Get that bum off the court!?

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Aug 15, 2009 10:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Who knows who will get invites to training camp and who Nate plays extensively...

Last year, I would have bet money that Shav would be ahead of Ruffin in the rotation after his acquisition, since Ruffin obviously produces nothing on offense. Alas he wasn’t. Similar with Ike Diogu.

Maybe you will learn to dislike seeing Dante on the floor next season. Or Jeff. Or more Travis. Or more Martell. Or someone else.

"I'm addicted to polo y'all...respect my fresh" - Travis25Outlaw

by Norsktroll on Aug 16, 2009 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

but this?
And, please, no cheating by saying Sergio, Channing, Ike or any of the other guys that aren’t coming back. Stick to guys that played minutes last year and are back again this season.

by lee3022 on Aug 17, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Roy

No question. If Roy see’s a mild decrease in minutes it can only mean one thing: we’re winning. Although it also probably means we’re commited to going somewhere in the playoffs.

by moflow on Aug 15, 2009 10:38 PM PDT reply actions  

I think Roy

wants to make a push for MVP this next year (purely conjecture, of course). I don’t anticipate him wanting to spend less time on the floor.

"HA HA HA HA HA
I'm not laughing, I'm just listing the five ugliest Blazers ever."
- rockingharder

by jamon51 on Aug 16, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

No need for conjecture. Roy isn't the type to spend irrelevant minutes padding stats...

I’d link to a specific reference, but basically everything written about him says the same thing – Roy is a team player. This is a deep team, and for Roy to take on extra minutes at the expense of Rudy doesn’t help Roy, Rudy or the Blazers.

by blacknoiseNW on Aug 16, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed

Plus, we don’t want to have Brandon tired or worse, hurt. He is the star of the team, no question there, but 5 minutes less would probably help him a lot and give Rudy the extra minutes (which he’ll need and want this season) so better overall.

by somanluna on Aug 16, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Steve Blake, Joel Przybilla, and Travis Outlaw.

Steve, as he played a lot of minutes last year and I feel he’s best as a star backup.

Joel, because it would mean Greg has emerged.

Travis… I really want to see Martell healthy. It would be a bummer for the foot injury to be a chronic issue.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 15, 2009 11:29 PM PDT reply actions  

I'll bite..

What has changed about our team going into next season, which would precipitate change?

In 09/10, Miller will impact reduced minutes for (in this order):
Blake, Bayless, Roy

Basically I give Blake about a 5% chance of starting next year. I think it’s obvious KP & Nate wanted a better ball handler, decision maker and someone who could run point and push pace. It’s actually scary to think about Blake and Rudy on the floor together coming off the bench. The continued dominance of the caucasian connection! Then of course there’s Bayless who I honestly don’t see playing at all next year, barring injuries. I maintain that he’ll be bundled in a trade before the deadline. The affect Miller has on Roy is a little different. Bear in mind that Sergio was a really, really, really poor decision maker. He had his moments but they certainly were not playoff caliber minutes. So, instead of Roy being out there longer than needed, I do see a good 4-5 minutes off his average next year. Simply because I think Nate will want Rudy to continue blossoming.

In 09/10, Webster/Pedergraph/Cunningham will impact reduced minutes for (in this order):
Outlaw, Batum

Not to throw Travis under the bus, because he’s done some great things for us, but he’s as likely as Bayless to be traded. If! If Webster ends up even 80% the player he was in 07/08 and shows promise. I do still see Travis starting out with normal or slightly reduced minutes. Travis is still the best backup to Batum or Aldridge right now. But that could change if one of these new rookies ends up playing tenacious defense and rebounds well. I don’t think we need scoring really at the 4 spot, as a backup. We just need a solid banger who can come in and be an energy guy running the floor. Power forward is an interesting position for us next year. What happens if we pickup a veteran blue collar forward before the deadline? When you hear stuff like “one player away from a title”, as Blazers fans I think we all can all agree it’s a backup to Aldridge.

In 09/10, Oden will impact reduced minutes for:
Pryzbilla

You don’t draft a guy #1 and then not have him start in his second actual playing year in the NBA. I honestly don’t see Greg as a bust, but I don’t expect 20/10 on this team either. I’m more looking for 10/10 and pushing 2.5 – 3 blocks/game. To simplify it even further, Greg needs to be a better center than Bynum next year. If he can turn the corner a little, I see Oden starting.

Regarding Hedo Türkoğlu:

Look at the bright side, Blazers fans -- you dodged a bullet. He peaked statistically two years ago. He's allegedly 30 but could be closer to 32 or 33 for all we know. (Do you trust Turkish birth certificates? And isn't it weird that he played four years of pro ball in Turkey in the 1990s?)

- Bill Simmons of ESPN.com

by halo_on on Aug 15, 2009 11:30 PM PDT reply actions  

you dont think Batum will emerge?

I think this is impossible to predict, Batum could improve insane amounts based on what we saw last year. It is also obviously possible for him to become stagnant, but not to the point that cunningham or pendergraph affect his minutes.

- Sam

by RipCitySam on Aug 15, 2009 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

I do think Batum will emerge

. . . especially if he improves his 3-pointer. If Andre Miller is starting, then Batum becomes the ONLY 3-point shooter spreading the floor for Roy/Miller in the starting lineup.

For this reason, I kind of think Blake still fits with the starting lineup better than Miller, and Miller fits better with Rudy/Outlaw/Webster. But we’ll see what Nate decides about that. If it’s Miller, the offense will look very different.

by Kaboomm on Aug 16, 2009 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wow!!! That is what I have been saying.

Finally someone agrees with me; everyone is talking about the second unit being a running team. Therefore I think the second unit should be as you just said, but I would trade Webster and Batuum at least until we found out whether Webster can run on his foot. I know Batuum is a born fast break player; Travis at the four is the same. I don’t know about Greg. Miller could help him immensely, but can he keep up plus everybody wants him starting. Nate has said the starter isn’t that important in his scheme of things it is effective talents in the proper positions that counts. As you said we will have to wait.

I have one new problem with our speculation; BRoy says he would love to run the wing with miller pushing the ball. What do you think of that? We could clone Andre and put him in twice. I think the clone’s name would have been Mills.

hg

by BBK on Aug 16, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Have you forgotten how devastating Bayless can be in the open floor?

Clone Miller? That would be Bayless after he learns how to use the threat of his penetration to set up teammates.

by upper left corner on Aug 16, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Touché

That is the problem with having so many good players.

Does JBay have enough court vision to pass while going down the court? Seems to me like he goes ocean to ocean with the ball in his hands.

hg

by BBK on Aug 16, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

If Greg plays enough to reduce Joel's minutes

he’ll almost certainly get more than 10 ppg, even if we never run the offense through him, just on offensive putbacks and such.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 16, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'll settle for 4-5 a game

which only works out to 350-400.

Point taken, though.

Actually, points taken. Two at a time, unless they foul him while he’s dunking it, and then we’ll take three, thank you very much.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 16, 2009 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

What version of excel did you use?

cause I’m getting………..oh never mind, 400 sounds good to me.

Romance me with that Roy rainbow shot which took flight from way beyond the arc and sailed so high that before it came back down to earth sealing the victory, it kissed the rafters and said "You're mine baby."

by Blazer1342 on Aug 16, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

LOL

Maybe 410.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agreeprovided that he keeps out of foul trouble

provided that he keeps out of foul trouble, I would expect Greg to be averaging around 15 and 10 this year.

Life's short, Stunt it!!

by Irwin Fletcher on Aug 16, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

RT: It’s actually scary to think about Blake and Rudy on the floor together coming off the bench

not really enough penetration from that 1-2 combo

Roy and Miller are the ball handlers, Steve and Rudy are more likely to pass the ball around the perimeter and settle for 3 pointers—but they won’t be as “open” if they aren’t playing with a low post threat or a penetrator out on the floor.

One scenario I’ve suggested is to run Rudy (and Martell) off screens if Blake is the backup PG. Steve is great at hitting a shooter coming off a “curl” at just the right moment for the shot. This would require two big men who are willing to set solid screens, Przy is one, but Outlaw is not the other. Perhaps a “twin towers” lineup with Oden would be a possibility, assuming Greg can stay out of foul trouble? At the other end of the floor you’d almost have to play a zone, but then this lineup would only be utilized for short minutes each half, while Roy and/or Miller are resting.

If not the twin towers, then dealing Outlaw for a veteran PF who can set picks and shoot open 15 footers while defending the post and rebounding is the last remaining piece to round out the roster

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 16, 2009 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sounds like Cunningham's game.

Taking into consideration that the time he would be getting is when Outlaw head is not in the game and we are only talking back up minutes. It was said LMA needs less time. Split that time between Travis and Cunningham depending on the opponents and situation.

hg

by BBK on Aug 16, 2009 7:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Dante sets excellent picks and was extremely efficient hitting the 15-foot jumper in SL.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 16, 2009 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Blake + Rudy

…won’t be subbed for Roy + Miller every time. It’ll be one in, one out, and the balance on the floor won’t be Blake + Rudy for long.

"HA HA HA HA HA
I'm not laughing, I'm just listing the five ugliest Blazers ever."
- rockingharder

by jamon51 on Aug 16, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you for clearing that up for me.

That is what was confusing me. If you think only at the style of play BRoy and Miller drives and needs somebody out on the wing shooting 3’s. It makes sense to me to put Rudy with one and Steve with the other.

I like what you said. That makes more sense then what I was thinking.

Hg

by BBK on Aug 16, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yep, I personally expect either Andre or Brandon to be on the floor at all times. Remember the end of last year, when LaMarcus didn’t sub out until midway through the second, when Brandon subbed back in? Probably something similar with ’Dre and Roy.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 16, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

people seem to be getting too caught up in this “first unit, second unit” lineup setup. I’d expect a full team of Blake, Rudy, Webster, Trout, and Joel to actually be on the court fewer than 2-3 mpg next year, if even that. Yes, that team would have serious limitations, but it’s not like anyone is forcing us to play them together.

by Royster on Aug 16, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

we tend to think of basketball in theoretical terms, with hockey substitutions, but there’s a lot of leeway in the actual games. Popovich is the master of always having Ginobili, Parker, or Duncan initiate the offense.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 16, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, it would be nice to have a checking line

of Bayless, Webster, Dante, Pend, and Joel out there, just for laughs.

by Royster on Aug 16, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

I fully support this move. Oh, Trevor, you hurt Rudy? Okay, now feel some pain.

"If the Lakers are Hollywood, then we are South Central." - Clipper fan.

by Cablinasian on Aug 16, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

I feel much better now

I couldn’t figure out why you wanted to put all the good players in then all the subs in to hang out and dry.

So, if we put a running unit of Miller, Roy, Rudy , Batuum and LMA that would be exceptable small unit?

Good God, I could make up different units all day. I am glad I am not a coach. I’d be pacing the floor all the time, or second guessing myself.

What unit would be the best defensive unit at the end of the game, other then Joel and Batuum?

hg

by BBK on Aug 16, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Joel, of course.

Total Minutes – If Joel plays as many total minutes as last year it means Oden is injured and missing games again. GO only played 61 games last year.

Average Minutes per game – If Joel plays as many MPG as last year it means Oden hasn’t decreased his fouls, and that is the first and necessary step to GO realizing his potential. GO only played an average of 21.5 MPG last year. If that continues it will have a serious effect on his confidence going forward and create many more doubts about his future performance.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 15, 2009 11:33 PM PDT reply actions  

In order of preference

1. Blake – Miller should take over the starting PG job, and Blake will be one of the best backups in the league
2. Pryz – Joel was great last year, but less of him means Oden is developing/playing well, which is critical for Portland’s title hopes
3. Roy – Keep him relatively fresh for the playoffs, where he’ll be averaging 40+ minutes a night

Team Bayless - The takeover begins in 2009

by blazeraddict on Aug 16, 2009 12:07 AM PDT reply actions  

In order

Brandon Roy, Brandon Roy, and Brandon Roy.

If Brandon’s minutes go down, it means one or more of the following:
1. We are blowing teams out, so Brandon gets some rest. This would be very good.
2. Our other wings (Rudy, Nic, Martell) are playing so well that Nate feels comfortable giving Brandon a little more rest, even in tight games. This would be very good.
3. We are winning enough games that Nate feels our playoff position is solid, and we don’t need to fight for absolutely every game, so he is thinking about keeping players fresh for the playoffs and experimenting with various rotations. This would be very, very good.

I didn’t say Joel because he only got 23.8 mpg last year, and if Greg gets 24-25 (up from 21.5) and Joel gets 22, I’ll be happy with that. I’d love to see the big guys not playing long minutes. That’s a lot of weight on those knees and ankles, so minimize the pounding by sharing the minutes.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 16, 2009 12:09 AM PDT reply actions  

To add to this

4. Andre MIller earns McMillan’s trust, so that with him on the floor, the needed margin before Roy sits and stays seated is lower than last year’s.

by Epimenides on Aug 16, 2009 3:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ah ... 100 percent agreed.

(see below)

Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k

by Y5k on Aug 16, 2009 4:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

If Web and the rooks[we only have 2 rookies this year?]

Are playing well Travis and JB becomes an attractive trade package at the deadline and that might be best for all concerned because I just dont see them geting the minutes to realize their potential with the Blazers

by southern oregon on Aug 16, 2009 12:21 AM PDT reply actions  

We still need a 3rd PG

(you only list two rookies so I assume Mills is not one of them).

Isn’t Bayless still the future? We may not need his contributions this year but getting a PG with his physical skills is improbable for the near future as we are no longer drafting in the lottery. In a draft class that was deep, Bayless dropped to 11 and would have been a top three or four in some years. We can acquire a PG by trade but only likely to be on the downside of his career and so only for a few years and the cost of that trade would be high.

Travis will still win a couple of games for us this year. He brings skills that are not evident in any other Blazer so far.

And why trade when we don’t have any glaring needs? At least wait until the season progresses to see if there is a need for a trade? At that time Travis may be enough to acquire a quality backup PF. If Travis is not enough the player we are getting must be a starter. We do not have the minutes to play another starter.

by lee3022 on Aug 17, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Regarding Przybilla

I don’t understand everyone knocking him on offense. Do so few people remember how well he did rolling to the basket with Nick Van Exel and Damon Stoudamire lobbing it to him? Sure Oden’s probably a better shooter on the whole, but do people realize that Przybilla shot a better percentage from the line last season (not to mention the floor as a whole)? And as for Oden, do people forget how regularly he was stripped at the basket?

I agree that Oden has greater potential than Przybilla, certainly at the offensive end and probably at both. I even am reasonably optimistic about him realizing his potential. But I think it’s both unfair and inaccurate to suggest that Przybilla has hands of stone.

by Shawno on Aug 16, 2009 12:54 AM PDT reply actions  

But I think it’s both unfair and inaccurate to suggest that Przybilla has hands of stone.

The year before last, Joel had the worst turnover ratio of any center in the entire league. If that’s not hands of stone I don’t know what is.

by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 16, 2009 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe

I’d like to see stats for that, comparing him to other centers over his career. It seems to me we’ve both (intentionally or not) done some cherry picking here.

by Shawno on Aug 16, 2009 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Last year he had the 8th worst turnover % among centers who played more than 6 mpg. (57th out of 64)

To put it in perspective, the worst TO% in the entire league last year was 20.4. Joel Pryzbilla is averaging 22.6 over the past three season, making him possibly THE MOST turnover prone individual per possession in the league.

He is the definition of stone hands.

by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 16, 2009 1:45 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

John Hollinger prety much sums it up.
Pryzbilla is a truly horrid ball handler and annually has among the highest turnover rates and lowest assist rates in basketball.-Hollinger

by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 16, 2009 2:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Could have been caused by playing with a broken hand.

He catches rebounds and passes out of them just fine. You can’t do that with stone hands.

I think it is the lack of efficiency from the guards. What is worst passing into Joel with the liability of fumbling or stopping and jump shooting and many times missing the shot.

We have been criticized for being a jump shooting team. Why is that? It is easier to miss a jump-shot then to figure out how to get it to a big or drive and dish or drive and score?

I thought Joel did OK with Rudy in the game setting Joel up. That is because Rudy played on a team that uses their bigs, Gasol, Couldn’t Andre do the same?

hg

by BBK on Aug 16, 2009 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

You might be on to something with the broken hand, HG. Regardless, my main point is that the Blazers aren’t necessarily hugely better off with Oden than Przybilla, even at the offensive end. Comparing the two for turnovers, ESPN has Przybilla at .99 career and .95 last year while Oden in his one season so far is listed at 1.43 — nearly half again. So sure, NVE, I’ll concede that Przybilla may have hands of stone, but then what’s Oden got, hands and arms, both?

by Shawno on Aug 16, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

I somewhat agree.

But to compare Greg to Joel with Greg being a rookie and having trouble handling being in the game let alone handling the ball is an unfair comparison. It is like comparing Apples and Oranges. Everybody knows Apple are the best LOL!!

I do agree that they are not that much better off this coming year, but look further into the future. I made a comment down below that There will be plenty of time for Joel and Greg because the fouls often determine the playing time. There is more playing minutes then fouls and that might be where Pendergraph will be important. Shaq comes to mind on that point.

It was also pointed out by one of the post that Joel sets great picks with Andre hitting him on a roll would be awesome.

hg

by BBK on Aug 16, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Turnovers per minute are a (statistical) function of two things:

One is how often one turns the ball over once they get it. This is pretty obvious. The second factor is how often one actually gets the ball. A player can’t turn it over if he doesn’t actually have the ball to begin with. This is why, per minute last season, Aldridge and Przybilla turned it over about as much as each other. However, Aldridge got the ball over twice as much. This is why Przybilla is considered turnover-prone. Greg turned it over more than Joel because he got the ball more. Greg had a turnover rate of 16.2%, Przybilla had a turnover rate of 18.5%, and Aldridge had a turnover rate of 8.0%.

by poster on Aug 16, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Heck, even Oden's usage

was nearly double what Joel’s was. This is such a non-issue in my book. Joel essentially never got the ball on offense last year except on offensive boards and he still turned it over at a higher rate than everyone on the team not named Sergio or Jerryd.

What should be stated, though, aren’t his limitations (he does set screens much better than anyone else on the team), but the ridiculousness of Timbo’s statement that Joel has a comparable offensive upside to Oden. Regardless of where we all stand with regards to Joel’s offensive game, I don’t see how that statement is really defensible.

by Royster on Aug 16, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pryz

has done a good job of taking advantage of what he does best (defend, rebound, and play garbage man around the basket). He doesn’t try to do anything on the offensive end thats outside of his abilities. He is an offensive liability. It’s 5 on 4 when he’s on the offensive end. He is what he is. The best back-up center in the NBA.

by toolman on Aug 16, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

4 on 5?

People throw that phrase around a lot, particularly regarding Przybilla. Is it so unusual, though, for a team to regularly have something of a liability at one end or the other in the starting line-up? Maybe so.

The L*kers (both last season and this coming) were/are solid both ends of the court, though Fisher has had less and less at the defensive end for awhile now.

The Nuggets are pretty strong on offense but they’re certainly exploitable at the other end (outside a two or three standouts).

The Mavericks have Dampier, the Spurs have McDyess, the Celtics have Perkins, etc. These are all among the best in the NBA.

And again, I’ll happily concede that Oden’s certainly got more potential of the two and even that Oden is probably already more of a threat than Przybilla is. What I’m arguing is that the difference isn’t yet so great that people should be making jokes about how awful Przybilla is comparatively. But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe there should be more jokes made. :-/

by Shawno on Aug 16, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Great Paragraph!
The Mavericks have Dampier, the Spurs have McDyess, the Celtics have Perkins, etc. These are all among the best in the NBA.

I assume after re-reading your post that you mean the Spurs, Celtics and Mavericks are among the best in the NBA and not the three players in the paragraph. But of course Spurs did not have McDyess last year (Detroit was not among the best in the NBA last year). Your point is still valid that a good team can use a limited offensive player and still win. I would not trade Pryzbilla straight up for any of these guys. If you go by plus-minus, all three of these guys were negative on the court against off the court (-0.6, -2.4, -0.7) while Joel was substantially positive (+3.9) which further supports your point. Note also that Dampier became better on offense with Kidd as PG and likely McDyess will improve in San Antonio with Parker driving and dishing so Joel and Greg may both improve on offense with Miller.

by lee3022 on Aug 17, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not really.

He always has a terrible turnover %. Only once in the past seven years has it been under 17. (16.9 in 2005)

by Nick Van Excellent on Aug 16, 2009 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow.... I can't anyone has mentioned LaMarcus.

Personally I would love to see LaMarcus’s minutes decrease. (Now i’ll admit that i’m a HUGE LA fan and don’t mind seeing him get 39 – 40 min per game)
But a decrease in LA’s minutes would mean that the Blazers are getting production out of their back up PF position, which was a huge liability all last year.
Also with LA playing less minutes he would hopefully have a lot more in the tank when the playoffs come around.

by Mace on Aug 16, 2009 12:56 AM PDT reply actions   3 recs

This is a really good point

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 2:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

god forbid

That is a little harsh don’t you think. Nic started last season, but didn’t see many minutes.
For me, Blake, Pryz, Travis, less
Nic, Greg more.
Miller Martel, I’m anxious to find out.

by mactastic on Aug 16, 2009 4:10 AM PDT reply actions  

Brandon

Clyde once said he often didn’t play the second half because the team was so far ahead. True or not, that would be very nice: Brandon sitting, saving himself, then stepping up to explode when needed.

Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k

by Y5k on Aug 16, 2009 4:17 AM PDT reply actions  

oden and joel will play more twin towers

so their minutes won’t be hit too much. unless there is foul trouble, I think outlaw will suffer.

by 1ofthe7 on Aug 16, 2009 4:24 AM PDT reply actions  

Webster and Outlaw

If their minutes decrease significantly, it will likely be because of the development of Nicolas Batum. To me, the kid is the most intriguing player on the Blazers’ roster.

We know what we’re getting from Roy and Aldridge, we know what we hope to get from GO, we know what Blake, Przybilla, Outlaw and even newcomer Miller bring to the table. We don’t necessarily know everything we could get from Rudy, but since he is destined as a backup to Roy (as neither he nor Roy can really play heavy minutes at SF or PG) he probably is for the most part what he will be (unless we change our roster significantly or trade him). Who knows about Bayless but I doubt he’ll see much run this season.

So, that leaves us with Webster and Batum. Webster has a lot of athleticism and that sweet stroke, and he has also been gone for a year, so I don’t want to be too quick in writing him off. This has more to do with Batum than a lack of anything Webster brings. Watching Batum last season, to me, was like watching a young Scottie Pippen (meaning even younger than Pippen’s rookie season – as Batum was younger than Pippen was in his rookie year and please no one say he is like Tayshaun Prince). His long arms, his ability to block a shot or make a steal out of nowhere, his ball-hawking, his off the ball help D, his overall court awareness and ability to run the floor and dunk, his athleticism and silky smooth movement, and yes his inability to produce consistently on offense, are all reminiscent of a young Pippen. And with his athleticism and high basketball IQ (also similar to a young Pippen), I think the sky’s the limit for Batum. It may sound crazy to say this, but I think Batum may have the highest potential of any Blazers player — now, that’s not the same thing as saying he will ever come close to reaching it, but there is really nothing to stop him from becoming a top shelf basketball player.

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by BlazersInsider on Aug 16, 2009 5:24 AM PDT reply actions  

Although playing time is a less important factor in player motivation than the x's and o's, it is still one of the key factors in motivating players.

Less time in descending order of priority: Fry, Blake, Outlaw, Aldridge, Roy, Sergio, Przysbilla.

Players who should get those minutes in order of priority: Miller, Webster, Oden, Batum, Bayless, Cunningham, Pendergraph, Rudy.

Playing time should be based on how players are playing and matchups, not automatic robo subbing. For example, Bayless gets time against quick point guards and Travis gets time against players that demand his focus, no drifting or sleep walking allowed. Less concern about fouls, we have great depth. Allow players to find their rhythm, avoid the quick hook. Hot players stay in until they run out of steam. Think successful matchups, motivation, and fun!

There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.

by KINGofMACct on Aug 16, 2009 5:51 AM PDT reply actions  

Guaranteed

Frye and Sergio get less PT with The Blazers this year

"I'm tired" -Me

by 92wastheyear on Aug 16, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

I hope McMillan knows they have been traded!

I’ve had nightmares about when Phoenix and Sacramento come to town this next season. I dream that on the nights we play them Channing and Sergio secretly bring along their old Trailblazer uniforms and suit up again for old times sake. The worst of it is that McMillan forgets they have been traded and puts them in the game. The other team immediately starts scoring at will, and I wake up with my heart pounding and sweat pouring from my brow.

There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.

by KINGofMACct on Aug 16, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

The other team scored at will last year when they were in the game

and we still won 54 games.

Sleep easy.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Whose Minutes Should Decrease?

Brandon’s minutes should go down. The team needs him healthy, fresh, and strong for the playoffs, and if he continues to get banged up throughout the season, without help from the other guys stepping up, we can look forward to another early exit from the championship chase.

by Bob Fingerhut on Aug 16, 2009 6:39 AM PDT reply actions  

here we go

definetly blake for miller
roy need to play less in certain situations for rudy
travis

It’s not like we didnt give oden all the chances in the world… the guy got in foul trouble being on the floor 5 mins…. stick with joel..

by blazermania92983 on Aug 16, 2009 6:47 AM PDT reply actions  

get rid of bayless imo unless he accepts a role of being the cheap just in case guy

by blazermania92983 on Aug 16, 2009 6:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Interesting debate

These things usually have a way of resolving themselves. A starter gets injured, or a player who was slated to get 10-15 minutes a game comes to camp out of shape or simply shoots his way out of the rotation, etc.

But I’ll play along. I’d like to see Blake’s minutes go down. Blake came up big last year, but mostly with his three point shooting. I think the team will benefit from having a starting PG who has more of a knack for getting the ball to the right people at the right time. I love Blake off the bench as a guy who can take care of the ball and hit the open three.

Also I’m going to say Roy and LA. The team had such trouble last year getting down early, often by 10 or 15 points in the first quarter. The next three quarters were then an uphill battle. If we can learn to pounce of teams early (maybe Miller’s veteran experience will help with the mental aspect?) that means that instead of sitting 2 or 3 minutes at a time, guys like Brandon and LA can take 5 or 7. Even bigger leads could mean they get to take off the entire 4th quarter, which would be huge on back to backs and come playoff time.

by Foofighting101 on Aug 16, 2009 6:59 AM PDT reply actions  

Since you threw it out there....
Can you really find joy in watching incredible potential rotting on the bench? I can’t. But maybe some of you (those still grinding axes about Sergio?) can.

To answer your question, yes I can, in certain situations. Jerryd’s potential “rotting on the bench” may mean that Blake and Miller are playing better than Jerryd. And we’re not really at the “playing for potential” point anymore. Leave that for the Minnesotas and Memphises. We’re trying to contend. Maybe we’re not quite there yet, but it’s time to start playing that way. If Blake and Miller are playing so that we are indeed in contention, then I say let the potential rot. Potential can be replaced. Production is a more valuable commodity.

Sure, Drazen Petrovich was good, but it was hard to argue with him on the bench when we were reaching the finals or posting 60 win seasons. When the window is open, you’ve got to do what gets you through that window the most effectively. Maybe if we had played Petro more he would have been good for us, but would we have been the contenders we were with him in that position? Maybe not.

I’m no Sergio Sympathizer. The same argument goes for him if he was the one who stayed. And I think the same argument can be made for Oden too. If he’s not cutting it out there, then play Przybilla. I hope and believe that wont be the case, but if it is, bite the bullet, admit the mistake and put the best players on the floor.

μὴ φοβοῦ, μόνον πίστευε.

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by T Darkstar on Aug 16, 2009 7:24 AM PDT reply actions  

Potential does not rot on the bench of a good team

A young player with potential sees amazing talent every practice and gets better from it. Later in the season when there are essentially no practices, the progress is slowed but the reality is the off season is when each player gets to prepare for the challenge of unseating the players getting minutes ahead of him. It is my belief that Drazen became good by practicing against Clyde. The same is true of Jermaine O’Neal practicing behind Sheed and Brian Grant.

Eventually a team must lose a young player who develops behind the star but has the opportunity to then add another young player with potential. Different sport but look how many good quarterbacks came from Green Bay after serving as backups to Brett Favre, or see Matt Cassel (who never started a game in college) traded for as a starter in the NFL after serving as QB backup to Tom Brady. Players do improve on the bench and it is not rot unless the player attitude or aptitude is not there.

by lee3022 on Aug 17, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let the game determine the minutes.

As for as the centers go, there is enough minutes for Joel and Greg. The fouls usually determine playing time.
Also, Joel plays better against teams that have penetrating pg and Greg plays better against the big aggressive centers with the exception of Shaq. There are many games where fouls exceeds the minutes than Pendergraph would be needed.

Everybody complained about Nate’s on the clock subbing, reading these articles makes it sound like everybody is doing the same thing. Take a minute here and put it there. Divide minutes between two players and such. I cannot sit here before even training camp has started and determine whose minutes should be cut.

Miller will be taking Sergio’s place; that could be exchanged for Steve taking Sergio’s minutes and Miller taking Steve’s minutes. That is because everybody was saying we were playing Steve too many minutes. Since Steve and Andre are both getting older and their game is already established, let the game decide the minutes. Bayless didn’t see that many minutes except for garbage time anyway, so his minutes for now would be the same.

I think Batman needs the minutes and gauging from his Summer performance, he may earn them. Martell is the dark horse. I remember like many, when Martell’s game was on he was terrific, but when he was off he sit and pouted a lot. Of course that was two years ago, things have changed. Therefore it is hard to dictate how many minutes he should get.

Outlaw didn’t play the three that good anyway so his minutes will probably be reduced. The excepting to that would be if the second unit becomes a running unit, I think either Batman or Travis would be better then Martell. (? broken foot). That again depends on the game.

Since this all speculation, IMO, the brass waited to see how JBay did in summer camp before going after Miller. That would explain why Miller was a late pick. I also think they are waiting to see how Martell produces and his durability before they make that next move everybody talks about.

I get somewhat turned off with posters comparing last years stats to determine playing time. Batuum, Rudy, Greg and JBay were all rookies last year. IMO this years performance should determine the minutes not last years

Hg

  

by BBK on Aug 16, 2009 7:47 AM PDT reply actions  

Minutes are NO PROBLEM

Case #1 (Perfect World) No injuries, no blow-outs:
C — Oden and Pyrz split the time
PF — Aldridge, with Outlaw limited minutes backup
PG — Miller, with Blake limited minutes backup; Bayless never plays
SF & SG (96 minutes total, and positions combined owing to Roy’s flexibility and Mac’s 3-Guard preference) — Roy 35 min, Rudy 23, Martel 19, Nic 19, or thereabouts

Case #2 Injuries
C injuries — Aldridge slides over, giving Outlaw more time at PF
PF injuries — Outlaw becomes main PF with Pyrz, Webster moving over as backups
PG injuries — Miller or Blake (the one left standing) starts and Bayless is full-time backup
SF & SG injuries — So many guys available means easy minutes adjustment for all

Case #3 Abundance of Blowouts — Blake, Bayless, Outlaw, Rudy, Webster, and Batum all get minutes.

Issues: The only difficulties depth-wize are C/PF should 2 of the 4 get injured or Aldridge alone goes down. This is why the 12th dressed player will be a big guy, either a rookie (yet to be determined skill-wise) or someone yet to be signed (by FA or trade), who can play either the 4 or 5 in event of injuries.

Other than that caveat there are absolutely no problems — the competition, injuries, and blow-outs will take care of all the minutes, the locker room will remain happy, and the wins will accumulate

by blazerwizard on Aug 16, 2009 8:50 AM PDT reply actions  

The other dificulty depth-wise, is if one of our PGs goes down, and Bayless playes.

I have a feeling Bayless would still get limited minutes if either Miller or Blake went down, as he would be splitting PG minutes with Roy, and maybe Rudy along with whichever PG still standing still taking most of the minutes. In other words, Bayless would not get the total of the back-up point minutes left open, he would get about 50 to 75% of those minutes, and as low as 25% if things aren’t going well, or if it’s in the playoffs.

by wingzeta on Aug 16, 2009 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Horrible

You said that a Perfect World has no blowouts.

In a Perfect World, we get at least 30 blowouts.

I’d like to blowout the L@kers twice in Portland. I want the game in LA to go to 3 overtimes, and then we break their hearts with a last second score from Brandon.

Make them feel the humiliation of being blown out. Make them feel the heartbreak of hope destroyed.

Rinse.

Repeat.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Aug 17, 2009 2:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

For everyone saying Roy or LA

How many minutes are you willing to give up? These are the best players on the Blazers and they need to play big minutes or else the team becomes worse. Fernandez and Outlaw are huge drop offs from Roy and Aldridge; playing your best players for fewer minutes means fewer wins. The Blazers haven’t really proven anything in this league and shouldn’t take making the playoffs for granted, they need to get all the wins they can.

I don’t think that Roy and Aldridge played too many minutes last year. If you look at mp/g of very good players in the league it can range anywhere from 33 minutes a game for guys like Duncan and Yao to 39 minutes a game for Iguodola. 37 minutes a game isn’t close to the top and in fact Roy and LA were 23rd and 24th (respectively) in the league last year in minutes played per game. Even K*be, who can rest when the L*(&&^ are blowing other teams out, plays 36 minutes a game. When you don’t have very good replacement players your stars need to play a lot of minutes, I don’t want to see Roy and Aldridge play fewer than 35 or 36 minutes per game.

So who should get fewer minutes? Going by last year’s statistics Andre Miller was a better point guard than Steve Blake, so I’d like to see Miller take the majority of the minutes at point guard (supposing Miller’s age doesn’t catch up with him and there is a huge drop off in his game).

Outlaw also wasn’t very effective last year, but he is the only known commodity at back up PF so he probably can be counted on getting those 10-14 minutes a night (and he probably will be better than Channing was). Other than those minutes I wouldn’t play Outlaw too much, since I think Batum and Webster will be better than him at SF.

So in summary 15-20 minutes less for Blake and about 15 minutes less for Outlaw, otherwise keep the same rotation.

by WildlyRamified on Aug 16, 2009 9:20 AM PDT reply actions  

Don't worry about Roy and LMA's minutes.

This kind of talk about playing them less minutes happens every year and it will continue right up until the season starts. The only way they will play less minutes is if we start blowing teams out more often.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 16, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly, which is why i put Roy as my top choice to see a decrease in minutes.

Guys, Nate is NOT going to cut Roy’s minutes at the expense of wins. The ONLY way Roy plays 35 minutes a night is if we’re blowing people out. This is exactly why i want to see Roy playing less. Because it will be an indication of our success. Yes, it’ll be nice to have him rested more for the playoffs but that’s just an added bonus.

by moflow on Aug 16, 2009 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

BROY and L.Aldridge

Yes, I am going completly left field on this one. But, we have Rudy, Batum and Martell, plus our rookies who can use some minutes to get some seasoning. Why I say BROY and L. Aldridge is to keep their minutes down to insure they are healthy for the play-offs, and we have a ton of talented players we could take advantage of and to showcase their abilities in case we want to make a trade before the deadline.

BLAZER 4 LIFE !!!!!!!!!

by blzerntucson on Aug 16, 2009 9:51 AM PDT reply actions  

Outlaw (but not losing minutes to Webster)

I find it very odd that folks here are predicting minutes for Webster but only in the mid-20s of minutes for Rudy. I predict that, for significant stretches this year — including the last 6 minutes or so of close games — Roy and Rudy will be on the court together, with either Miller or Blake at point. Roy is a big enough body to match up defensively with the larger of the wing players for stretches, and Rudy will play well enough that it would be a crime to keep him off the court — that is what we should all expect, even though nobody is talking about him this summer. Webster is coming back from being out a year, and he’ll have to deal with all that that entails — confidence issues, etc. I predict spot minutes for Webster (not a decrease from last year, of course); and less time for Outlaw at backup 3, since Roy and Rudy will be playing together more. So, in short, Rudy will eat up minutes previously given to Outlaw. (Also Blake and Przy will lose minutes to Miller and Oden, of course; but the big loser will be Outlaw.)

by BrailleTaser on Aug 16, 2009 11:41 AM PDT reply actions  

We shouldn't be worrying about minutes

the hope is that everyone stays injury free. We need to win as many games as possible to assure a top seed and on going home court advantage in the play-offs. I don’t think we’ll see any reduction of minutes for Broy or LMA. Most games are won in the final minutes which means those two play lots of minutes so we can win the close ones, especially on the road. I’d like to see Broy lead the league in scoring or at least be close. I think the competitor in him keeps him on the floor. As long as we are winning, minutes won’t be a problem. I look for the rookies and Rex to spend most of the season on the bench.

by toolman on Aug 16, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions  

That’s the thing, we don’t need Roy scoring 28 a game. We aren’t a one man team and he doesn’t want to be the “one” man of a team. We have too many weapons now. With Dr.Dre in town, expect Roy’s ppg to go possibly below 20

by elkaholic84 on Aug 16, 2009 7:37 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

The Shuffle

This question is really what will determine the outcome of the upcoming season, so thanks for bringing it up. I know it has been taking up a corner in my brain since the off season began…

The real problem position is no mystery: small forward. I mean seriously, with Rudy, Nic, Travis, Martell and Dante all able to rock the 3 spot, who gets shortchanged? All of these guys have great talents that they bring to the game, but there just aren’t enough minutes in the season to make sure that the guys that need to develop can, and that the guys that have earned time get it.

The first thing to do is to look at the SF candidates that perform well at other positions. We know Rudy is a fine SG, so he ought to stay there, even though he deserves more time than he will ever get following Roy. The jury is still out on Travis at the 4 spot, so until he shows a serious passion for rebounding, I’ve gotta keep him in the SF discussion. Cunningham showed that he can rock the PF, and I’ve heard it said that he lacks the ability to guard quicker SFs on the perimeter, so he can leave the table. The same question of quickness leaves Martell out of the guard club. Batum is very comfortable at SF and I can not see him playing anything else unless he puts on some serious weight and moves up to 4.

So it’s the battle that should have happened last season: Martell, Outlaw, and Batum. Of those three, I see Batum as the clear victor. His rookie season was amazing, his summer has been huge, and he’s only 20! So in my opinion, the real fight is between Webster and Outlaw. If Webster stays healthy and brings what he was supposed to bring last season, he wins. On the other hand, we have a young man that has added something to his game every season and there’s no reason to think he can’t do that again. The final question is, can Outlaw add more that Martell can bring?

If Outlaw comes into training camp without having shown a hugely improved BBIQ, he’s gone and the battle is over. It would take him either proving that he can defend the perimeter and bury the 3 just as good as Martell, or that he can seriously compete at the PF to maintain a spot on our roster. Otherwise, he gets just enough minutes to maintain interest, then off he goes to give us headaches in another uniform. I certainly don’t look forward to being on the receiving end of a clutch, three-point, game-winner, courtesy of Travis, but if that’s what it takes to get the most out of Batum and Martell, so be it.

Go Blazers.

by 500dogs on Aug 16, 2009 12:15 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree that SF is where the logjam is

however I believe Martell (if healthy) will eventually win the starting spot. I agree that Nic will start the season. However, once Martell gets his NBA legs back under him and his head is right, Nic doesn’t stand a chance. Just my opinion.
The thing I like about Trout is that he’s a flier. A God given gift that can’t be taught. The ability to elevate and get an easy jump shot or dunk is a great thing. Plus he’s shown that he can take the game winner if called on.
Anyway, I’m excited to see how it shakes out. May the best man win.

by toolman on Aug 16, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yup

I totally agree that Martell will end up starting, but from the point of view that he will stretch the defense, not that he is a superior player. Nic will still earn plenty of minutes because of his defense. Personally, I would like to see the two of them get about equal time.

I’m with you on Outlaw too; he’s a very talented player. I just don’t see a place for him unless he shows some real improvement. But yeah, may the best man win.

Go Blazers.

by 500dogs on Aug 16, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm going to go out on a limb

Blake loses a ton of minutes. With Martell’s shooting ability, the need for what Blake brings is reduced. He is a wonderful vet, but I think that his time has passed for what this team needs. His strength is being the solid, experienced vet. Miller fits that role. The change of pace back-up is what is needed with the second unit. Blake’s not that guy.

by parkinglotj on Aug 16, 2009 2:18 PM PDT reply actions  

Roy

If he’s playing big minutes, it means we need him. I’d rather see Jerryd and Rudy get regular season minutes, let Roy save himself for the finals. (And I still want Roy to play, don’t get me wrong)

by rmcdougall on Aug 16, 2009 2:41 PM PDT reply actions  

Roy and LA....

but I don’t see it as a decrease in minutes, I’d like to see them be able to get a little rest at times. I’d like to not run them into the ground, so we have them for a long time to come.
Travis is going to have to bring it every night, or even I have to admit he is the odd man out. I’m curious to see what Pendergraph brings, when he gets a chance.
Blakes minutes will decrease with Miller here, and Bayless wont smell playing time unless there is an injury. I hope he puts his ego aside and really watches Miller, he can learn a lot if his head is right.

by FrenchieFan on Aug 16, 2009 3:35 PM PDT reply actions  

This is EXTREAMLY easy for me....

In the past few years I find myself calling my television names that I wont mention on this site. Use your imagination and I have probably used that word.
With that said, TRAVIS should’ve been traded, should have his minutes decreased dramaticaly, should be getting his ars chewed out by sarge. Her are a few reasons why:
1- It took him 2 years to understand our play book enough to even be effective out there(no basketball IQ)
2- He either thinks he is kobe wants to be kobe or is trying to prove that he will become the greatest jump shooter in the league
3- where his lack of B-Ball IQ comes into play is when our leading scorer in Roy is on the floor and there is 15-17 seconds left on the shot clock and his (kobeness) decides to take a fade-a-way from 15ft out. It makes no sence to me. And that is when I am yelling at my tv all game long!
4- He could be one of the best players in the league if he did have IQ. My reasonings to believe this are because he has one of the highest vertical leaps in the league, he is quick enough to blow by almost any small foward or power foward in the league. With all that said….DRIVE TRAVIS PLEASE! I dont know why Nate doesnt tell him that. He should be either ducking on people left and right( a higher % shot or laying it in or shooting f-throws)

The guy has a load of talent but either no one on the staff pushes him to his highest potential or he is jjust one of those all talent, no smarts kind of player.
His minutes should definatley decrease!

by droyden on Aug 16, 2009 4:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Brandon First...

Brandon played way too much last year. Yes, he is our best player, but in order for us to have a chance in the playoffs we need him to be at 100%. If we can play him less, then it means that we’re either blowing teams out, or Rudy has developed his attacking game and midrange game enough to be a solid backup. I’d love to see that, because if Rudy is playing alongside Brandon, then it means that Nic, Martell, and Travis are all sitting the bench, or playing the super small 4. That’s not a good sign.

Lamarcus should have his minutes decreased also, even though he showed last year, through the playoffs that he is a horse. The man played almost every minute throughout the playoffs and he performed fairly well. That being said, though, we can’t burn him out early in games, and watch his effectiveness drop as the game progresses. What I’d like to see out of him is better help side defense, to keep Greg and Joel out of foul trouble.

Martell Webster also should have his projected minutes decrease. Everyone seems to be expecting him to come in this year and play a solid 25-30 minutes a game. I’d like to see him play maybe 20 a game, because it’d mean that Nicolas is getting a lot of time as well.

Those are my top 3.

by Jeremiah S on Aug 16, 2009 4:47 PM PDT reply actions  

Roy and Joel

For the reasons as stated above

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Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.

by Net Ranger on Aug 16, 2009 5:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Nate McMillan

I want to see an adult backcourt (Miller/Blake, Roy/Rudy) that can do more of the on-court coaching and leadershipping, so Nate doesn’t have to fiddle with rotations all the time and call as many time outs. I want a team that doesn’t need to be coached every 2 minutes during the game.

"It all depends on where his growth will come and we think his growth will come within us" -- Kevin Pritchard on Jerryd Bayless

by Jumbo on Aug 16, 2009 6:15 PM PDT reply actions  

playing time

Hey, here’s a crazy idea. How about coach decides on playing time on a real-time basis during each game.

If someone needs rest, he brings in a sub.

If one of the young players is doing surprisingly well, he starts carving out some minutes for them.

by lsjogren on Aug 16, 2009 6:28 PM PDT reply actions  

roy/aldridge

Another reason to reduce Roy and Aldridge’s playing time:

Look at all the players that vegged out in the playoff series. The only ones that played pretty well were Roy, Aldridge, and Pryzbilla.

Now, with something like 13-15 potentially viable rotation players (don’t forget Patty Mills might still be a possibility once his injury has healed):

One nice thing about having that many players is that in the playoffs if most of the team freezes up like deer in headlights like they did in the Houston series, Nate will have a whole boatload of reserves to throw in the game until he finds someone that can handle the pressure.

But, all of them need to get some playing time during the regular season for it to be realistic to put them on the floor during playoff games.

by lsjogren on Aug 16, 2009 6:32 PM PDT reply actions  

another consideration

Here’s one that is very tricky:

What if you have some players that can come right in and play well short minutes and then you have other players that can play well but only if you keep them in long enough to get a rythm going.

I think that was part of the problem with some of Bayless’ play in the latter part of the season, Nate puts him in for a couple minutes, he plays poorly, Nate yanks him, but maybe he would have played well if he had gotten enough minutes to get his rythm going.

OK, summer league suggests that might not be the case for Bayless, to the extent people consider summer league to provide meaningful insight into how well a player is doing.

But, the general issue still remains: How do you handle the fact that some players could be substantial contributors to the team if they were in long enough minutes to get a rythm going, but who may just crap out if you never put them in for more than a few minutes.

I’m not even sure which players might fit that category, but it could be yet another wrinkle to the general issue of playing time which is liable to be a genuine coaching challenge this coming season.

by lsjogren on Aug 16, 2009 6:40 PM PDT reply actions  

that would be: to no extent at all

“to the extent people consider summer league to provide meaningful insight into how well a player is doing”

by kickbrass on Aug 16, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

“The thing I like about Trout is that he’s a flier. A God given gift that can’t be taught. The ability to elevate and get an easy jump shot or dunk is a great thing. Plus he’s shown that he can take the game winner if called on.”

I think you make a good point because I believe sometimes we criticize Outlaw too hard for his shortcomings and don’t acknowledge him enough for his strengths.

One other comment people have made about Outlaw that I think is true is that he is as good a player as he is going to get. At least the good thing about Outlaw is you know what you’ve got in Outlaw, he’s not a question mark like most of the young players on the team.

If the Blazers ever get a better handle on what they have in their younger less experienced players, it will help them decide where Outlaw fits in or if they have the players they need without him.

by lsjogren on Aug 16, 2009 6:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Last season, we relied too much on Blake and Outlaw

So I’ll add to the chorus of votes for seeing their minutes get taken up by more competent and complete players. Ideally that would be Andre Miller and Healthy Martell/Better Nic.

Steve is great, but limited. Sorry to go all fatty on you, but Miller is a BALLER. SF I’m less convinced about…

by kickbrass on Aug 16, 2009 7:24 PM PDT reply actions  

Blake

If his minutes don’t decrease, it means Miller got hurt for the first time in his career.

by Real 2K Insider on Aug 16, 2009 9:45 PM PDT reply actions  

We were out of gas in back to back a lot last year...

We are two deep at every position with players who could start on a lot of teams in the Assocation. I don’t know why we couldn’t split minutes more equally at these positions. Maybe closer to 50-50 between Oden/Pryz, LMA/Trout, Nic/Martell, Roy/Rudy, Blake/Miller. With some time left over for Bayless and the rookies in games against lesser teams or when we have thrown in the towel on a blowout (heaven forbid). Roy and LMA really need less time. Bayless also needs more time in game situations—maybe even at the 2 on occasion with Miller on the court so he can watch how Andre does it and how Andre communicates to his teammates—JB clearly needs to develop some court vision. I think this year may be make or break for him in terms of development at the point.

by oldguyoldfan on Aug 16, 2009 10:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Travis but not Joel...

I’d like to see Travis’ minutes drop due to Martell and Batum handling the 3 spot, but I’d like to see them decline further because his backup 4 minutes are being taken by Joel.

I think we could see Joel filling in the backup 4 spot some if Oden is able to stay out of foul trouble at the 5. Could be an easy way to keep Joel in the game and fun to see some of the two center lineups that came out a few times last year.

by mwalter on Aug 16, 2009 11:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Less Roy

Others have already suggested that reducing Roy’s minutes would be good to avoid injury and to keep him fresh for the playoffs. These are both good goals, but I like the idea because it also opens more minutes for Rudy. I think that the team needs to throw him more minutes to keep him happy. Or, to put a pessimistic spin on it, to give Rudy more minutes improves his trade value if he becomes so disgruntled that we have to move him.

by paniscus on Aug 16, 2009 11:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Here's how I think minutes should go

Approximately….

PG – Miller – 30; Blake – 18
SG – Roy – 20; Rudy – 28
SF – Webster – 25; Roy 15; Outlaw – 8
FP – Aldridge – 38; Outlaw – 10
C – Oden – 30; Pryz – 28

Yep, no Batum. Who do you take minutes from?

by 56Wabashaw on Aug 16, 2009 11:25 PM PDT reply actions  

Woops...

At Center it should be Oden 30 and Pryz 18.

by 56Wabashaw on Aug 16, 2009 11:27 PM PDT reply actions  

too soon

how can anyone make that call when we haven’t seen how players have improved or developed?

Questions: Bayless, Batum, Oden, Webster (strangely and completely accidentally alphabetical.)

Will Bayless improve with work and focus on being a point guard? Can he make leaps with miller?

Is Batum going to take a giant leap forward, backward, or now where?

Is Webster going to be out of shape? did he really make improvements and will he still be improved with a year off for injury? Is his foot healed because that was a LONG time to be down.

Oden, can he improve? Does he have the dedication?

Assuming Batum can improve more and that webster can improve, then I lean towards travis with the cut. If Webster didn’t improve then I lean towards him as Outlaw, despite his flaws, can play PF and SF and doesn’t double book in areas we’re already clogged (SG)

I still believe in bayless so I see him keeping minutes but if he shows signs of improving then I see blake and miller both cutting minutes.

I’d like to see Roy cut his minutes due to the team playing well and being able to bench and rest him.

I’d like to see pryz cut some minutes because that will mean Oden is playing well.

Still, i think it’s all too soon. Need to see what we have to work with and how the mixes work.

"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.

But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html

by ratbastird on Aug 17, 2009 7:37 AM PDT reply actions  

how to reduce minutes

Clearly we are going to have major minutes issues at point guard, shooting guard, and small forward with Travis, Bayless, the rookies being the big losers. I would like to see the total minutes for Brandon, LMA , Miller (he is getting older) reduced so that they are fresher come playoff time.

The traditional way of doling out the minutes is on a per-game basis where your stars get most of the minutes and your role players get well defined smaller minutes and everyone else gets scraps. How about if you were to let Brandon and LMA take entire games off (not at the same time) or play backup minutes every 4th game. Maybe when we are playing a weaker opponent you sit one of them to start the game and only bring them in as needed. Sometimes they will play very few if any minutes, and other times they end up playing their usual minutes. In those situations where they are called upon to come back and clean up after a tighter-than-shoud-be game against one of the weaker teams, aren’t their minutes more applicable to playoff experence than if we had just pummeled the weaker team with all of our guns and then turned the game over to the bench for meaningless garbage minutes? The backups would also get more meaningful minutes since to prove their worth, and players like Bayless and the rookies could potentially get long enough runs to allow them to develop, and players like Travis, Rudy, and Batum would be able to get enough minutes to satisfy them.

This would no doubt cost the Blazers some wins, but it could potentially yield a more experienced bench, and fresher starters for the playoffs. The west is likely to be tight again this year, so I’m not convinced that seeding is going to make that much difference at this point in our championship quest.

by dogbert on Aug 17, 2009 8:29 AM PDT reply actions  

I'd like to see Rudy's minutes drop

not because I have anything against his game, but because I really want to see Batum develop the way I think he can and will. If Batum becomes the stud many of us think he will become, then he gets the lion’s share of minutes at SF. Rudy becomes the odd man out in that case, because he is strictly a backup at both slots, and he can’t play two positions at once. Now, it is true that Nate could juggle the minutes of Rudy, Roy and Batum, but I just like the idea of Miller, Roy, and Batum together.

by hercher on Aug 17, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions  

Only One Solution

After reading all the great comments and swaying in the To ’N Fro, I have reached the conclusion that there is only on solution to the minutes crunch:

Schedule more Overtimes…

by Sashland on Aug 17, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Andre Miller will play less

Last year he averaged 36 minutes per game. This year I believe it will be under 30 and closer to 24. Blake, Bayless and Roy will all take up PG duties at times. Miller’s contribution will still be enormous but not the role he played with Philly and not the minutes he played there.

I also believe what both KP and Nate have said – the unit that won 54 games last year is still intact as starters and will stay there until difficulties arise or one player clearly outplays a starter and that player will still mesh better with the other starters. However, I look for Nate to be creative with his lineups to keep opponents off balance and unable to concentrate on one strategy against us for the entire game.

This has been a great discussion and I appreciate the perspectives advanced. I will not repeat what has already been discussed so Miller is the one guy not featured as losing minutes already (although some have postulated lists with Miller getting less time).

by lee3022 on Aug 17, 2009 1:28 PM PDT reply actions  

What about Batum? (Preparing to be lynched)

I would love to get Rudy in the starting line up over Batum and Webster. We tried it off and on last year and I think he adds such a huge outside threat that it can open up the middle more for either Roy to drive or to dump it in to LA or Oden (hopefully). Batum, to me, has great potential but I don’t see the love affair most have with his game. We have a three-point killer that we bring in with our small lineup – he is the Energizer bunny out there (remember when he scored 5 points in 2 seconds?)

(let the lynching commence)

by hedgerocket on Aug 17, 2009 4:52 PM PDT reply actions  

I got LOTSA ideas for fewer minutes...

Whose minutes do I want to see decrease next year? Let me count the ways… Or at least my top 10 people I hope get fewer minutes…

1) Kobe. I want to see his minutes decrease to about 2.. per year… No life impacting injury wish here… just the usual… pinkie sprain for 82 games…. whatever… Karma…

2) Tim Duncan. If he doesn’t play a lot, we can slip by them for 2nd overall… And, he shoulda been in Boston all these years anyway, so chill S.A.

3) Shaq. Shaq and LeBron is not a pair I want the Celtics OR Blazers to fight this year.

4) Joel Pryz. Obviously, this means Oden is a beast.

5) BRoy. Please. Save this man for the playoffs. No more than 34 mpg, please…

6) Dre. He HAS to get fewer minutes than previous years if we’re goig to be able to still RUN in the playoffs.

7) Sergio. Would mean we didn’t give up on him so soon.

8) Tony Luftmann… Although I think I already got my wish…

9) Comcast broadcast minutes . Fewer Comcast minutes mean more national games…

10) Brett Favre. Jesus, will some network please hire him so he can freakin retire??

by Visionary1 on Aug 17, 2009 10:33 PM PDT reply actions  

this made my day, dude.

Bravo.

Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k

by Y5k on Aug 18, 2009 3:51 AM PDT reply actions  

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