BE + Kevin Pelton Podcast Episode 003

by Ben Golliver on Aug 14, 2009 5:32 PM PDT in News

Here's episode 3 of my podcast series with Kevin Pelton. Stat heads this one is for you as I probe KP2's vast mind for some intricate, never-before-seen-or-heard Blazers stat knowledge before rounding out the episode with our first special guest interview. This week's extended play episode is broken into 4 segments.

Segment 1:

Our continued struggle to name the podcast
Shortened rosters in the NBA: Causes and Effects
An extensive look at which players currently without contracts could make a difference for a contender this year

Segment 2:

KP2 introduces Basketball Prospectus's improved player projection system for 2009
Nic Batum and Steve Blake: what does KP2's system expect from each?
Pelton's system answers the question, "Does it matter whether Miller or Blake starts?"

Segment 3:

Pelton discusses his team projections with an early preview of the Western Conference and predicts a Northwest Division winner
Expectations for the Blazers: What's more important, total wins or the division title?
Pelton explains the "Plexiglass Principle" and whether the Blazers might fall victim to it

Segment 4:

Guest interview with Clyde Drexler
The Glyde discusses: Memories from the 1992 Dream Team, the Andre Miller signing, handicapping the Western Conference race, how many games it would take for the Dream Team to beat the 2008 Men's National Team in a 7 game series, among other topics.

The podcast is 54 minutes long and is a 50 megabyte MP3.

"Right click and save as" this link: Download BE-KP2 Podcast 003

Reminder: there is some PG-13 language music clips in between segments.

This week's musical interludes:

1. Mos Def - Mathematics 2. Beanie Sigel - Feel It In The Air 3. Rick Ross - Magnificent

For those of you asking: sorry for the delay, iTunes functionality coming shortly.

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

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names

blaze-cast
Podblazer
The Trail

by bbails on Aug 14, 2009 6:26 PM PDT reply actions

Blazers/Sonics name

Nate McPodcast

It’s terrible, but I like it.

by zach2046 on Aug 14, 2009 7:08 PM PDT reply actions

The official Blazer's Edge Podcast

That should be your name. We’ve already got an “Official Trailblazers.com Podcast” as Gavin Dawson announces at the beginning of the other podcast. Why not make this one the official Blazer’s Edge Podcast? Afterall, I think it has a more Blazer’s Edge feel (raw, less rigid, less polished) compared with the official podcast.

by mas1983 on Aug 14, 2009 7:52 PM PDT reply actions

Hoping someone will write up a transcript

and post it in the comments for deaf readers

by lurtsman on Aug 14, 2009 7:58 PM PDT reply actions

hmmm

trail cast
blaze cast
rip city buzz**
rip cast
nw budcast
blazers and pals

only serious sugestion

by dew0lfe on Aug 14, 2009 9:25 PM PDT reply actions

92 Dream team drops 2008 cast in four...

Book it.

by lethaldose on Aug 14, 2009 9:49 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

If you want more ideas, I can probably think of a few

The B-K Report

BK Bites

The K-BE Report
(pronounced Kube, or spell it K*BE report and inset a sound effect)

Just KP2 Ben(-It)
(with KP2 and Ben)

The Kings of Blaze-on

The K 2 the BE Show
(It Kant Be! Yes It Kan. Kahn!)

Pelt it 2 BE (or me)

(Warning! U Just) Ben – Pelted

Just BE-P’n

BE-P’s for the Blazer Peeps

and so on

by StatRaven on Aug 15, 2009 1:10 AM PDT reply actions

Player comparisons: Could Nic the next Rudy Gay, even more efficient, only with far less minutes unless we free up the crunch?

Year 1 comparison: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=Hlq9q

Nic somewhat more efficient shooter especially from the line and three which also affects his better true shooting percentage and eFG%. But of course gets 9 less minutes, takes less shots. Similar PER (12.9 vs. 12.4), ast%, trb%, blk%, Nic better tov%. Per 36 they are pretty close apart from less scoring. Nic’s win shares naturally better.

Year 1 vs. year 2: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=OhsnX

Gay reaches his regular starter level and “team star” minutes (37), so his totals go up a lot. Gay also increases his FG% by 4% to 46 above Nic’s first year level. FT% improves by 6%. 3P% slightly goes down. PER increases to 17.5.

Year 1 vs. year 3: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=DrPQy

Gay about stabilizes his minutes, level of production stagnates or goes down in most categories. His PER goes down somewhat to 15.3

"I'm addicted to polo y'all...respect my fresh" - Travis25Outlaw

by Norsktroll on Aug 15, 2009 7:53 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Gay was his DraftExpress comp.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 15, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions

In 08-09, Nic had more Win Shares than Gay in about half the minutes. Nice.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 15, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions

If Memphis isn’t winning, does this negatively influence Gay’s win shares?

"I'm addicted to polo y'all...respect my fresh" - Travis25Outlaw

by Norsktroll on Aug 15, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions

no, win shares are entirely based on offensive and defensive rating…. while the defensive rating can depend on teammates, it wasn’t Gay’s DWS that was so troublesome… it was the very low OWS total. The glaring reason for his low win shares is the poor scoring efficiency.

For every 100 possessions that Gay has the ball, he would score 101 points. This means that he only gets credit for .7 OWS with a 25% usage rate. Yikes.

Here is the article on creating basketball win shares.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 15, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions

I can’t get over how abysmal those numbers are… one of the few times that I find myself shocked after looking at a player’s BBR profile.

Wow. less than one offensive win share. Wow.

optimism ftw

by Cablinasian on Aug 15, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

the really scary thing

is that when Quick was interviewed on 1080 (in June, I think) he named Rudy Gay as one of the “special fit” players that KP has been interested in for awhile (along with Devin Harris, etc)

Here’s hoping that either Jason was wrong or KP never gets the “right” deal for RG from the Griz

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 15, 2009 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions

You should name the podcast

92wastheyear!!!

"I'm tired" -Me

by 92wastheyear on Aug 15, 2009 11:14 AM PDT reply actions

For Lurtsman

I didn’t hear anything particularly notable in first segment

Here is a brief recap of segment 2

Who’s left? Joe Smith may wait til Feb., Powe makes Cavs fav in east. Among restricted Lee, Robinson, Felton still waiting
Iverson, Bobby Jackson, Novak can help the right teams.
Stackhouse done. Bowen might be or just brief minutes for a team in need of defense.
Udoka, Mason have too much competition to be sure to get a job
McCants hurt by attitude and defense, wrong time, but somebody going nowhere probably give another chance

Portland: KP2 system just used 1 yr last season and did pretty well; Hollinger used 6, was expecting fallback, was wrong. Now KP2 using 3 years of data; in a manner like pecota for baseball, it is not a exact prediction, more the average of range.
Batum? Ben: Strong for team France, looking good/ Min? This part of system is subjective I put18 min because crowded. 3pt from 39% FG% to 44% because to shoot as many as well is rare so they are usually are good and get better. You predict Blake fall off? His 06-07 was bad and that has an effect. Expecting 25 min for both Blake and Miller is admittedly a cop-out. If Miller plays 30 not much impact of expected wins though.

I was going to listen to segment 3 but ran out of time.
Maybe somebody else can cover that and / or segment 4.

by StatRaven on Aug 15, 2009 11:44 AM PDT reply actions

Thanks

To update: Joe Smith will sign with Atlanta, he is off the market. Novak would be good for the Nuggets.

"I'm addicted to polo y'all...respect my fresh" - Travis25Outlaw

by Norsktroll on Aug 15, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions

podcast name suggestion

“NBA Northwest”

then you could abbreviate it “NWNBA” as a not-so-subtle dig at KP2’s affiliation with the Seattle “Fillies”

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 15, 2009 11:48 AM PDT reply actions

I kinda like "The Trail Post"

In ye olde days, there used to be “posts” along major trails where people could meet and talk (and also how the “post office” came about)… Why not do that?

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Aug 15, 2009 12:21 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

Slight correction

The who is available / could help stuff was the second part of the first segment. It really didn’t add much analysis. A podcast should provide more depth of opinion or give n take to make it worthwhile to listen.

There was brief talk about S Randolph getting squeezed out as many teams just plan to keep 13. Training camp competition for spots may be largely gone.

I think ten day contracts later might become the main route in, but still less likely, at least short-term.

by StatRaven on Aug 15, 2009 12:32 PM PDT reply actions