How Far, How Fast?

       No other team has the combination of youth, talent, and success (yes 54 wins is success). The growth of the younger players GO, Rudy, and Batum figure to enhance our team more than any changes ANY other team made in the entire NBA.
        The addition of Miller to the starting line up has the potential to do for us what Billups did for Denver last year. With Roy’s drive and Aldridge’s talent we are looking at a very special year. We will win our division and IF the L*kers have any issue at all I say we pass them out right and go the finals this year. Once there …well who knows. Its time for the Red and Black to crash the Party!
O.R.

First this team, as it stands has the POTENTIAL to make the finals [Sure a small move or two would help, but teams have made it to the finals with less than a 100% perfect makeup]. But do I want to set my hopes up so high and suffer heartbreak, or should I protect myself, target low and be “pleasantly surprised”?

How many of us really expected 54 wins at the start of last year? Even though we thought we would be getting a great Oden back, and Martell too. We still didn’t dream of 54 wins. [We didn’t know much about Rudy, and nothin about Batum]. This year, we’re right back there again, but worse.We’re anticipating an improved Oden, Martell’s return and Miller+Blake as our PGs; we know about Batum and Rudy; and we were a 54 win team. How high do you want us to dream, Dave?

We were blowing out teams at the end of last year. I’m not expecting anything, but I’m hoping that we blow out teams from the outset. That even before we get to the playoffs, we become a team that is feared. I’m hoping that we beat LA on their home court. That the league sees us as capable of beating anybody on any floor. With all the Injuries bug-a-boos, I’m just too nervous to expect anything. But I am HOPING that even FromAfar this is a fantastic season to remember.

That they’ll win the division and end up with the 3 seed behind LA and San Antonio. Winning the first round will give them a 2nd round matchup with San Antonio, one they should be able to win. Duncan will be worn down again by a whole season, and it’s possible the same could happen to Manu. After beating the spurs 4-2 in the 2nd round they will run into the Lakers in the WCF. This is when the rubber meets the road, and I’m not sure how much of a chance we’ll have. The Lakers are nothing but better, and while the same can be said for us I don’t think we will have closed the gap. It will take a significant leap from Oden and Batum as well as meaningful and reliable contribution from Webster to get us to the Laker’s level. We lose the WCF, whetting our appetite for next year.

I thought your article was very unbiased. It is very refreshing compared to some of the homer crap i’ve read all over the Internet. The blazers in my book still lack the interior presence needed during the playoffs. In the playoffs you need someone who, when the other team goes on runs, perhaps on the road, someone who can catch the ball in the post and get you a high quality shot.

It seems to me that post offense is by far the most predictable offense. That is, you’ll always basically get the same performance. It’s not the type of position that production varies much on the road vs at home. Thus in the playoffs, it is of utmost importance.

Portland still lacks this presence. Until they get it, or at least more of it, they won’t get over the hump. Last year’s lakers went into the post like 70% of possessions. Whether it was Pau Gasol, Bynum, Odom or perhaps their most productive post player, Kobe. The ball was always in the post. This is one huge advantage they had over other teams.

Boston the year before had KG who has an incredible offensive game, especially in the post. The high release is impossible to block.

The Spurs in their championship years had Tim Duncan.
The Lakers in their 3-peet had Shaq, the most dominant big man ever.
The Heat in their 1 win had an older Shaq

The right question is, “What would have to happen for us to make the Finals?”

Possibility #1 — we have great chemistry right away, and enough of our young players make major strides forward that we end up the #1 seed. I put that at a 20% possibility. If we’re a #1 seed, I put our chances of making the Finals at probably about 30 to40%. Net: 6 to 8% chance.

Possibility #2 — we make good progress this year and are good enough for a solid #2 seed, but the L@kers implode due to A) Artest head case B) Bryant head case or C) Catastrophic Injury. We end up the #1 seed, as above. I put his at about a 10% chance, and again about 30 to 40% chance of making the Finals if it happens. Net: 3 to 4% chance.

Possibility #3 — we make good progress, end up as the #2 seed, and get enough breaks in the playoffs to advance even without the #1 seed. I’d put this as about a 10% chance.

Possibility #4 — we aren’t good enough to make a #1 or #2 seed, but catch lightning in a bottle, put it all together in the playoffs, and advance. I’d give that about a 2 to 3% chance.

All told, our chances of making the Finals are somewhere between 20 and 25%. The talent is there, but it isn’t fully developed yet, offensively or defensively. We aren’t a well-oiled machine yet, and we don’t have experience.

The talent could possibly develop quickly, the chemistry could come together, and teams do very well in the playoffs without a lot of experience sometimes.

I wouldn’t bet on Portland making the Finals. They are not likely to do so. But the percentage possibility is high enough that it isn’t stupid to talk about it. In all probability, we need the L@kers to stumble one way or another, but good teams stumble (look at Boston’s injuries last year).

And we may need San Antonio to stumble as well, but no one knows whether they will be healthy come playoff time. If they have injury problems again this year, they could even end up with a 4 or 5 seed, and face the L@kers in the second round. Wouldn’t that be fun?

is that when the Blazers do lose, that we can look at the series and say that they played well. I do not mind a disappointing first round loss IF the collective wisdom is that they were beat by a team that was just playing better. And by well I mean that there is improvement by all of the Blazers, which I expect. I also expect the Blazers to show more dominance as the season goes on.

That said, I think all of the Blazers will improve because of experience and the addition of Miller. I would not be surprised if they are able to make the Finals, but do not think that it is realistic to expect it.

One thing that strikes me as a little unrealistic is the 60 win wagon. Last year they had an insane number of quality opponents coming in off of the second night of a back to back and won almost all of them. This coming year, not so much. I think a 54 win season will be an improvement because of that. Jscot has the most excellent statistics to back that up as I recall.

We won 54 games last year with a horrifically tough schedule and 1 year less experience. We also got the worst first round matchup we could’ve received by playing Houston (up to the final game of the regular season the most likely opponent by far would’ve been the hobbled Spurs), as typically seeding DOES help get a favorable matchup and a favorable matchup, of course, greatly increases the chance for winning a series or two.

The schedule is very favorable – distribution of road-home games each month is pretty good, the start to the season is much easier than last year, only two 5-game roadies and no 6-gamers (and in those two roadies we only play 2 playoff teams from last season on the first trip and 1 on the second trip), we usually play the Lakers four times but this season only three times and twice at HOME, we often play S.A. four times but this season only three times and twice at HOME, so there are many, many favorable elements to the schedule. I could go on and on.

A 41-41 team or a lottery team need not concern themselves overly much with the schedule. But a 54-win team can definitely pick up a few wins based on schedule alone and ensure itself a stronger seed in the playoffs. So, in addition to the expected improvement of GO, Aldridge, Roy, Rudy and Batum and the return of Webster (not even counting any improved contribution from Bayless), we should have more ORGANIC growth than any other team. This doesn’t even include the addition of Miller – as I wanted to focus primarily on the schedule to add something new to the comment mix.

Based on talent, I think the Blazers are as talented as any team in the league, L@kers included. It was evident in the stretch run last season when we blew out several very good teams including the L@kers. Bring in Miller, bring back Martell, add a year of maturity to the 4 rookies, and you have a dominant level of talent.

The Blazers are going to be beasts on the boards. Offensively, the arrival of Miller and added maturity for GO and Nic (or the return of Martell) is going to make it even harder for teams to double Roy and LMA. If you can’t double them, you can’t stop them. Portland simply has too many weapons for all but half-handful of teams. If the Blazers had not had the misfortune of drawing Houston, they would likely have advanced. The Blazers lost to a team that gave LA more trouble than anyone else in the playoffs even without Yao. All of which suggests that we were a lot closer to being competitive with the Lakers than is commonly recognized, even amongst Blazer fans.

Portland should be less of a jump shooting team on offense, which should help us be more competitive on the road against good teams. On defense, you could see the effect of GO during the stretch run last spring. The Blazers are not yet a dominant team defensively, but they are getting much better. Hopefully, GO and Nic are ready to take it to the next level this year. Hopefully, Miller will take some of the offensive load off Roy so that he can step up defensively. Hopefully, LMA continues to gain strength and learns to use his length to become more of a weakside, shot-blocking force. Last year the Blazers were middle of the pack defensively. This year, I expect them to be in the top ten from opening day, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them be in the top 5 by playoff time.

The wild card is the Blazers’ lack of playoff experience. It cost them in Game 1 against Houston. It might cost them again this year against a savvy veteran team like the Spurs or the L@kers.

People who make definitive predictions about seeding or outcomes in the Western Conference are blowing hot air. There are so many teams who are so competitive, that tiny unexpected events can and will alter the outcome of the season. If a top player gets hurt for even a few games, that could radically alter seeding. A couple of whistles can change a series. A back-up getting hot in a key quarter of a key playoff game can swing a series.

We don’t know what will happen. We can say that the Blazers appear poised to join the league’s elite, and we can realistically argue that we have the talent to compete with anybody.

caused by the successes of last year, merging Ron’s ego into the triangle, and perhaps an injury or two.

Blazers and Spurs finish tied at the top with 63 wins each; Blazers win head-to-head tiebreaker as of our 3 games with the Spurs, 2 are home games for us which we will win.

Lakers finish with 61 wins, Dallas with 57. Denver, N.O., Houstan, Phoenix all do worse and lose in first round. We beat Dallas in second round and play Lakers for conference championship.

ON TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP!

We should have made it to the second round at least last year. The only team in our way was Houston and we unfortunately drew them in the first round. I felt we had a better than good chance to beat anybody other than Houston in the first round. We do terrible against teams with dominent big-men.

Now that Yao Ming is out next season (right?) and certainly being without Artest, Houston shouldn’t be a factor.

Spurs have been going down hill the last few seasons although they had a good off season pickup.

We beat LA 3 out of 4 games and by all means they will pick it up in the playoffs, but still we match well with them.

I can’t think of a single team in the West we can’t beat on any given night. Hopefully we will be able to asses Webster in the first few weeks to see what he brings to our new competative team…. and Oden should have progressed passed his 5 fouls in 10 minutes stat line from last year.

We are in a GREAT position!

Clearly I’m in the minority here, but I see a talented regular season team, and a pretty weak playoff team when I look at the Blazers.

The game changes in the playoffs. Teams study tape, find your tendencies, and are ready for them. The game slows down. Defense wins games. Over and over. Good pitching beats good hitting. And we just don’t have the pitching.

We have 70 million and one defensive options. But who’s going to be the stopper? Who’s going to guard Kobe, or Carmelo, or Dirk, in that final two minutes of the third quarter when they’re climbing back from a 9 point deficit to tie the score? Because that’s when playoff games are won. When a team throws everything they have at you, and you can still stop them from getting out of the hole, then you can win playoff series. And sometimes championships.

And I just don’t see those kinds of players on the Blazers roster right now. Oden and Batum might become those kinds of guys. But not this year, not yet.

So no. I don’ t think this team has an extended playoff run in them.

The Blazers tied for their division with 54 wins last year, and it’s not homerism to suggest that they will win the division this year. After all, they have two solid players on the roster that they did not have last year, and three are starting their second year and will improve. Denver has no new solid players on their roster, and they will not get the same level of improvement out of their team, that we will get out of ours. Billups, after all, has already peaked, as has Anthony. Nowtizki, Howard and Kidd are also not going to get any better.

I also expect them to win their first series, and have a very good shot at winning their second. One can argue that you have to stop Dirk or Carmelo to win a series, but the more practical reality is that teams have not always stopped these two, yet Denver and Dallas still did not win. And that transpired because they could not stop the other teams leading scorers. You don’t, after all, win a series by trading baskets.

Granted, they need to improve their defensive intensity to go deeper. But they will get that far this year. Then, we will see how that defensive intensity ramps up. Oden, Batum , Aldridge and Roy can all improve – and very likely will. Two are second year players, and two are in their 4th.

Playoffs vs regular season, I think that is a key issue.

I find it interesting that most pundits seem to be setting high expectations for the Blazers due to being an improved team over one that won 54 regular season games.

They don’t seem to be downplaying their prospects much in light of the way they folded against the Rockets in the playoffs.

But I do think that is an important question. Will their maturity level have stepped up enough since last year to hold their own in the playoffs?

I have no doubt that they will be a lot better, but will they have reached the maturity level to be a true playoff contender?

We shall see.

“Seeding matters.”

Amen to that. IF the Blazers somehow make it to the NBA finals, I think the route to get there is to beat out the L*kers in the regular season and use the home court advantage to beat them in the playoffs. If the L*kers beat out the Blazers for home court, the L*kers make it to the NBA finals.

Am I the only one that finds it incredibly annoying when players are referred to as “pieces”?

I think it’s very important for the Blazers to get the best record in the league. Confidence is important, and being a young team the best record would go a long way to making us very confident. I think with one series under their belt (the Rockets last year) the Blazers are already better prepared to deal with the playoffs. We have as much talent as any team, including the mighty La**rs (that’s a joke, they aren’t really good compared to past champions) We just have to overcome our small lack of experience, but I think we will.

a litlle of that and who knows what happens. A team like the Blazers can catch lightning in a bottle.

Players generally hit their prime in the NBA around the age of 27. Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Webster, Fernandez, and Batum have several or more years to go before they get there, whereas Blake, Pryz and Miller are vets, and Outlaw seems to have peaked. There still tends to be a little disbelief about the Blazers 54 victories last year. Some talk about “close wins”, but good teams always win more of the close ones than they lose – which is why they’re a good team.

The Blazers are calling Batum back to look at his shoulder, but I might suggest you read the inverview with Batum because he spent much of the season with a shoulder that limited his mobility, and only now has he been able to take the time to rehab it, which he wasn’t able to do during the season. This affected his shot and his ability to defend. We also know very well that Oden’s recovery, and then early season injury, set him back. And then, we lost our starting SF for the season, and did not have Miller.

The Blazers won 54 games in spite of being as banged up as any other team, having three first year players gathering a lot of playing time, and having their two stars in their third year.

It’s not homerism, as such, to expect improvment – and that improvement will be added to last years 54 wins – which few expected at the beginning of the season last year. Add to this attitude. This is a team that likes each other, is motivated, and determined to improve. And, as the core moves towards their prime, they will indeed improve – both individually and as a team. And one area that will improve as this group plays together – is team defense.

We then have the declarations of “weowntheblazers”. Whereas I fully expect LA to be the favorite next year, talk of a dynasty is premature. They are not, by any stretch, the “best” team of all time. Kobe and Bynum are no match for Magic and Kareem, for example, anymore than you can declare them better than Bird and Parish. Pau compares well to McHale and to Worthy, and is better than Green and Rambis, but Fisher does not match Dennis Johnson, for example, and one cannot foreget JoJo and Scott.

Man for man, as we move several years downstream, we will see Oden – who was better in his first year than Bynum – neutralize Bynum. We will see Adlridge neutralize Pau. Right now, Miller is superior to Fisher. This takes us to Artest who is currently superior to Batum or Webster, and Odom who is better than Outlaw. However, Batum and Webster’s trajectory is upward – whereas Artest and Odom’s is flat. They’ve peaked.

On the second team, Pryz, Blake and Fernandez are already superior to their counterparts on the Lakers. And whether Batum or Webster play on the second team, they are still as good or better than their counterpart.

Then, you have Roy vs. Bryant. Bryant is at his peak, whereas Roy is still expanding his game – and has yet to peak.

Next years a little early, but the following year we will see these trajectories start to cross.

LA has already learned how emphemeral “dynasties” are. They thought they had it – but the Shaq-Kobe chemistry blew it up. Those egos simply could not co-exist. They though they were there with Magic, but his illness took him out early.

“WeowntheBlazers” enthusiasm knows no bounds – and he should feel good. But like anything, it’s short term. Ask Garnett and Boston.

From top to bottom the Blazers have an awesome roster… I challenge anyone who reads this to show me a better one. The front office has really done a great job at putting this team together – they made a plan of action to put an end to the jailblazer era by dumping the entire team and completely rebuilding the program via the draft, putting as much of an emphasis on character as they do talent. They knew it would be years before the team was any good again… all of the losing would be painful and hard to watch, so a lot of people didn’t, which cost Paul Allen many, many millions of dollars.

That plan of action is nearly complete… it was every bit as long and painful as they said it would. Using the draft they were very careful to select players that 1) were a perfect fit for the system they wanted 2) had great character and high morals 3) a strong work ethic, the drive to succeed, and a very high basketball I.Q. 4) great athletes with tons of potential. It wasn’t long before the system they eventually wanted to use began to take shape and two young stars emerged that would be the foundation for which the whole program would be built around – Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge. There was one surprise along the way though when Portland won the lottery… the teams nucleus of Roy and Aldridge became exponentially stronger (in theory) with the addition of Greg Oden, the #1 overall pick in the draft. Those 3 players are a great foundation to build a team around, and with some very smart moves on draft days by the front office – particularly KP – they “pritch slapped” together a roster that is loaded with extremely talented, young, potential stars as the supporting cast.

The Blazers have 2 guys at every position capable of starting in the NBA. If the starters are Miller, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, and Oden… that gives us a second unit of Blake, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw, and Przybilla. That second unit is better than some teams have for starters… maybe a lot of teams. That is a lot of youth too, so most of them will improve a ton over the next few years… one of the starters is so young he may not be finished growing yet. Barring total disaster I think the Blazers will finish in the top 3 from the west, probably top 2. The only team that will most likely be better than Portland is the lakers… and that is just for this year because next year the Blazers will be the favorite to win the west. It’s a great time to be a Blazer.

From top to bottom the Blazers have an awesome roster… I challenge anyone who reads this to show me a better one. The front office has really done a great job at putting this team together – they made a plan of action to put an end to the jailblazer era by dumping the entire team and completely rebuilding the program via the draft, putting as much of an emphasis on character as they do talent. They knew it would be years before the team was any good again… all of the losing would be painful and hard to watch, so a lot of people didn’t, which cost Paul Allen many, many millions of dollars.

That plan of action is nearly complete… it was every bit as long and painful as they said it would. Using the draft they were very careful to select players that 1) were a perfect fit for the system they wanted 2) had great character and high morals 3) a strong work ethic, the drive to succeed, and a very high basketball I.Q. 4) great athletes with tons of potential. It wasn’t long before the system they eventually wanted to use began to take shape and two young stars emerged that would be the foundation for which the whole program would be built around – Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge. There was one surprise along the way though when Portland won the lottery… the teams nucleus of Roy and Aldridge became exponentially stronger (in theory) with the addition of Greg Oden, the #1 overall pick in the draft. Those 3 players are a great foundation to build a team around, and with some very smart moves on draft days by the front office – particularly KP – they “pritch slapped” together a roster that is loaded with extremely talented, young, potential stars as the supporting cast.

The Blazers have 2 guys at every position capable of starting in the NBA. If the starters are Miller, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, and Oden… that gives us a second unit of Blake, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw, and Przybilla. That second unit is better than some teams have for starters… maybe a lot of teams. That is a lot of youth too, so most of them will improve a ton over the next few years… one of the starters is so young he may not be finished growing yet. Barring total disaster I think the Blazers will finish in the top 3 from the west, probably top 2. The only team that will most likely be better than Portland is the lakers… and that is just for this year because next year the Blazers will be the favorite to win the west. It’s a great time to be a Blazer.

From top to bottom the Blazers have an awesome roster… I challenge anyone who reads this to show me a better one. The front office has really done a great job at putting this team together – they made a plan of action to put an end to the jailblazer era by dumping the entire team and completely rebuilding the program via the draft, putting as much of an emphasis on character as they do talent. They knew it would be years before the team was any good again… all of the losing would be painful and hard to watch, so a lot of people didn’t, which cost Paul Allen many, many millions of dollars.

That plan of action is nearly complete… it was every bit as long and painful as they said it would. Using the draft they were very careful to select players that 1) were a perfect fit for the system they wanted 2) had great character and high morals 3) a strong work ethic, the drive to succeed, and a very high basketball I.Q. 4) great athletes with tons of potential. It wasn’t long before the system they eventually wanted to use began to take shape and two young stars emerged that would be the foundation for which the whole program would be built around – Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge. There was one surprise along the way though when Portland won the lottery… the teams nucleus of Roy and Aldridge became exponentially stronger (in theory) with the addition of Greg Oden, the #1 overall pick in the draft. Those 3 players are a great foundation to build a team around, and with some very smart moves on draft days by the front office – particularly KP – they “pritch slapped” together a roster that is loaded with extremely talented, young, potential stars as the supporting cast.

The Blazers have 2 guys at every position capable of starting in the NBA. If the starters are Miller, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, and Oden… that gives us a second unit of Blake, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw, and Przybilla. That second unit is better than some teams have for starters… maybe a lot of teams. That is a lot of youth too, so most of them will improve a ton over the next few years… one of the starters is so young he may not be finished growing yet. Barring total disaster I think the Blazers will finish in the top 3 from the west, probably top 2. The only team that will most likely be better than Portland is the lakers… and that is just for this year because next year the Blazers will be the favorite to win the west. It’s a great time to be a Blazer.

From top to bottom the Blazers have an awesome roster… I challenge anyone who reads this to show me a better one. The front office has really done a great job at putting this team together – they made a plan of action to put an end to the jailblazer era by dumping the entire team and completely rebuilding the program via the draft, putting as much of an emphasis on character as they do talent. They knew it would be years before the team was any good again… all of the losing would be painful and hard to watch, so a lot of people didn’t, which cost Paul Allen many, many millions of dollars.

That plan of action is nearly complete… it was every bit as long and painful as they said it would. Using the draft they were very careful to select players that 1) were a perfect fit for the system they wanted 2) had great character and high morals 3) a strong work ethic, the drive to succeed, and a very high basketball I.Q. 4) great athletes with tons of potential. It wasn’t long before the system they eventually wanted to use began to take shape and two young stars emerged that would be the foundation for which the whole program would be built around – Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge. There was one surprise along the way though when Portland won the lottery… the teams nucleus of Roy and Aldridge became exponentially stronger (in theory) with the addition of Greg Oden, the #1 overall pick in the draft. Those 3 players are a great foundation to build a team around, and with some very smart moves on draft days by the front office – particularly KP – they “pritch slapped” together a roster that is loaded with extremely talented, young, potential stars as the supporting cast.

The Blazers have 2 guys at every position capable of starting in the NBA. If the starters are Miller, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, and Oden… that gives us a second unit of Blake, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw, and Przybilla. That second unit is better than some teams have for starters… maybe a lot of teams. That is a lot of youth too, so most of them will improve a ton over the next few years… one of the starters is so young he may not be finished growing yet. Barring total disaster I think the Blazers will finish in the top 3 from the west, probably top 2. The only team that will most likely be better than Portland is the lakers… and that is just for this year because next year the Blazers will be the favorite to win the west. It’s a great time to be a Blazer.