Portland Trail Blazers 2009-10 Goals
by Dave on Aug 10, 2009 11:14 PM PDT
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PrintDuring a radio interview last Thursday 95.5 The Game's Gavin Dawson asked me whether I thought the Blazers could win 60 games this year...whether that was a realistic goal. There's a practical answer to the question, which is that it depends largely on the progress of Greg Oden. If Oden can become a great, consistent defensive player then yes, the Blazers have a chance. Anything less and they'll struggle to reach that lofty plateau.
But as is often the case the practical answer isn't as informative as the philosophical one. In this case the best answer is probably framed by another question: "Should ‘x-wins' be on the list of Blazer goals this year at all?"
My response? Not really.
When wins are rare they become an important benchmark for success. A 20-win team shows real progress by getting to 30. 41 wins, a .500 record, is a serious milepost when you've been bad for a while. 50 wins is probably the last signpost on the trip. It's been the barometer for good teams in the league in the modern era. But here's the catch. The 50-win thing only really works the first time you achieve it. After that it's not about the wins, it's about what you do with them. The 1990-91 Blazers won 63 games, a franchise record that stands to this day. That season also remains to this day one of the bigger disappointments in Blazer history for the way it ended. Even 70-win teams don't give a rip about the huge win total unless it leads to a championship. Without that they're just a cheap tavern trivia question.
Bad teams hang their hats on a win number. Good teams win as many games as is necessary to get the job done. If they need 55 they'll get 55. If they need 60, they'll find a way to do that too. If they needed 55 and got 60 that's great, but it's not like they get a bigger trophy for it. Nobody throws back wins. You try to get as many as you can. But the mission isn't winning for decoration's sake. It's beating your competitors and finishing ahead of them.
Can the Blazers win 60 this year? To be honest, I don't really care if they do or not. I'm not going to feel any better or worse about this team on that basis alone. The Blazers' goals this year are simple:
1. Win their division.
2. Get homecourt advantage in the playoffs for as many series as possible.
3. Both of these are for the express purpose of getting past the first round.
If the West is so tight that 52 wins will take the division and secure a high seed then I'd be plenty happy with that. If it's so loose that three or four teams near 60 wins then I hope the Blazers cut into that line.
Either way we're past the point of having to throw gaudy numbers out there in order to feel good about ourselves as a team and a fan base. Only advancement counts now. Crowing about 58 wins and then bowing out in the first round of the playoffs would all but invalidate the accomplishment and make the crowers look like fools. Winning 50 and getting to the conference semis or finals would be something to hang your hat on.
Topping the division is going to be a manageable stepping-stone goal involving beating out two other serious contenders for that honor. That's going to be circled on the Blazers' chalkboard at the beginning of the year.
Once that goal is in sight the next one is going to be finishing ahead of as many teams as possible to get the highest seed and most homecourt available. By the time that picture becomes clear the end goal should be no more than a couple months away and the teams in question narrowed to a handful.
After the season ends both of those will be erased and the focus will tighten to single series in which none of the preceding achievement matter.
I seriously doubt at any time the Blazers are going to attach a number to all of that, save the number "4" representing the wins you need in that playoff series. If the words "60 wins" come out of anybody's mouth in front of the media they're probably going to be taken aside and straightened out once the microphones are off. It's too nebulous of a prospect, too long-term to focus on, and the gain is too uncertain. Beat out Utah and Denver first, try to overrun anybody in front of you in the last six weeks of the season, then defeat whoever you draw in the post-season. That's it.
Once we've seen the playoffs what we really want can't be accomplished in the regular season anymore. The Blazers have taken all of the regular season steps needed, from 20 to 30 to 41 to 50+. They've graduated elementary school. Now it's time to work towards the big diploma. And in this new world mere repetition of the old goals isn't enough. You're expected to retain that knowledge, sure, but it's what else you do with it that matters.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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I do agree
It;s not about regular season numbers now. It’s about winning the playoffs!!
COMCAST SUCKS!!
"Let's win the playoffs!!!!!"- Rudy Fernandez
by shamman on Aug 10, 2009 11:27 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Thanks!
I deleted your “first” comments because they’re not allowed at BE, however here you get the benefit of a comment that fits AND being first. So you win twice over.
—Dave
Hey Dave, good stuff.
Conference finals or bust this year, in my opinion.
Regarding Hedo Türkoğlu:
Look at the bright side, Blazers fans -- you dodged a bullet. He peaked statistically two years ago. He's allegedly 30 but could be closer to 32 or 33 for all we know. (Do you trust Turkish birth certificates? And isn't it weird that he played four years of pro ball in Turkey in the 1990s?)
- Bill Simmons of ESPN.com
Unless..
..we draw the Lakers before the conference finals and then I wanna see a 6-7 games and the fear of God put in L.A. for 2010/2011.
Regarding Hedo Türkoğlu:
Look at the bright side, Blazers fans -- you dodged a bullet. He peaked statistically two years ago. He's allegedly 30 but could be closer to 32 or 33 for all we know. (Do you trust Turkish birth certificates? And isn't it weird that he played four years of pro ball in Turkey in the 1990s?)
- Bill Simmons of ESPN.com
I agree with all of Dave's comments
and I agree the goal should be the WCF, but I’d consider getting out of the first round progress. Losing in the 2nd round would be disappointing but not a busted or wasted season, or in any way a step backward or even staying static.
Agreed
Goals should be TOUGH but attainable, and I think WCF fits that bill. Second round is improvement so I won’t cry, but the goal should be WCF. Lakers or Spurs could derail that, but the other teams really shouldn’t.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
The NBA has two seasons
The regular season positions us for the playoffs (.. plus remember some of the important intangibles, like determining who becomes a star in the league).
But now that we’ve graduated into post season play, what we do in the playoffs matters. So if we’re setting goals, speaking for myself I’d be disappointed if we don’t go a round or two beyond the first.
I think we can safely say now that we're looking at relative goals, rather than absolute goals.
We’re measuring ourselves against the other top teams in the West, and the regular season matters for playoff position and just doing better than our rivals (relative advantage).
I still think we have a good shot at 60 and I’d be excited if that happens, but 2nd round of the playoffs is the real goal and the one that the players should be looking for.
(I’m just a bored guy on the internet, so I can speculate about 60 wins.)
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Speaking of numbers
I agree with Dave 100%, any player talking about how may games we’re gonna win should be issued a muzzle. It’s no longer about win totals. It’s about playoff wins. Speaking of numbers there have been people talking recently about Blazer players changing numbers this year. Any confirmation on any of those? I’ve heard BRoy back to either 3 or 4 and Martell to 23. Any others trying to switch it up? What # is Dre going to wear?
it's already been announced: Martell is moving to 23
I’ve heard nothing about Roy switching from 7 though… And Miller is wearing 24
Blazers win!
by The X-man on Aug 11, 2009 10:50 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
i dont think the West will be quite as tough next year
HOU,PHO Utah and Dallas are not going to be better,SA is is older and NO has one player.I think the Blazer’s 3rd in the West behind LA and DEN is the smart money bet. I would be fine with that and the # of wins is not important
by southern oregon on Aug 11, 2009 12:11 AM PDT reply actions
I partially agree and partially disagre
The West won’t be as tough because Houston and Phoenix are no longer locks for a playoff spot. New Orleans will do slightly better with Okafor, but they won’t go above a 6th seed.
However, San Antonio looks poised to be a contender. We can talk about potential for injury until we’re blue in the face, but that same card can be applied to any team in the league. Until one of their main guys goes down we must consider the Spurs a title contender. Dallas is a team that could make a decent run in the playoffs, I might even call them my darkhorse candidate for the WCF. Denver is very dangerous, but I get this weird vibe that their season last year came together so nicely as to be unrepeatable. My official prediction is that they will get 4th, but I can see the magic not being there next season. Utah is much better than their 8th seed demonstrates. They were hit hard by injuries early in the season and never got a rhythm going.
I think this year’s 8th seed is a crapshoot. Anyone from the Clippers to the Suns to the Rockets could end up there. 7th will probably go to the Hornets again. 2-6 will once again be very tightly contested. I don’t think there will be significant difference between those seeds barring big time injuries. I could see any one of the Blazers, Mavs, Nuggets, Spurs and Jazz in any of those spots.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
With fingers crossed, I like the Blazers as 3rd in the West ..
I tend to agree with you guys about Houston, Phoenix, and Dallas. Houston especially should decline with no center.
But let’s remember that OKC is a rising team. The Spurs are trying to reload, and they’re always experienced enough to be dangeroud. And Utah might be better if they stay healthy, even if they trade Boozer.
you’re underrating the Hornets. They won a bunch of games last year with an injured or playing injured Tyson, David West, Chris Paul, and a bag of chips. Okafor’s consistency will do wonders for that team.
optimism ftw
by Cablinasian on Aug 11, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think I'm underratting the hornets
they’ll do better with Okafor, but compared to the rest of the West they lost ground. A healthy Utah and a reloaded Mavs are better than the Hornets. So are the Blazers, Nuggets and Spurs. Where do they make up ground? Someone else has to fail for the Hornets to move up in the West.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
I think Blazers could be as high as 2nd seed
though I say that very cautiously. I think most of us are conceding that the Lakers, unfortunately, remain the cream of the crop in the West. San Antonio clearly improved itself, but their hopes still rest on Tim Duncan’s rather creaky knees. I could easily see them sacrificing a few wins in the regular season to keep him healthy. I previously picket them to finish ahead of Portland, but now I’m not so sure.
Dallas is certainly dangerous, but getting old. The Rockets and Suns are out of the running. Denver got worse losing Dahntay Jones and Linus Kleiza) while SA, LA, and Portland got better. I predict the Nuggets are in the bottom half of the playoff lineup.
Utah scares me, because they were dangerous last year after an atrocious first half, but I think Portland is simply a better team that will improve throughout the year with Miller at the point.
In short, I don’t see any teams in the west that are notably better than the Blazers. To a degree, that includes the Lakers, though Kobe makes them better by himself. I think what will happen is that there will be 3 teams bunched together at the top, and, like last season, everybody else taking it down to the last few games of the year.
1. Win the Division
I think this is the simplest and most tangible goal. It’s really easy to keep track of just 2 other teams instead of up to 8 or even 9. Stay in front of Denver and Utah. Simple.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
Regular season goal: 2nd or higher in the Western Conference
to get home court advantages and avoid the Lakers until the WCF.
Playoff goal: Get into WCF.
If we get into the WCF I would consider it a highly successful season win or lose the WCF. To me that is the “big step” to becoming a contender to win it all.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Aug 11, 2009 12:36 AM PDT reply actions
Goal for me - win the next game
prepare for and play that game as if it is the championship. Instill the muscle memory needed to confront the best teams one game at a time.
I also value the division crown. In winning your division you will set the tone to play the second season – still one game at a time.
I follow these sentiments.
The goal for the team should be playing good basketball and coming to the court ready and able to win every game. If they give it their best and get beat, so what. Nobody has a perfect season. Just come back the next game and give it their all.
I don’t get all the talk about fans being disappointed if the Blazers don’t make it to the WCF. The NBA, hell, just the future, is too unpredictable to start setting one’s self up for failure and disappointment. If Portland plays good basketball, the wins will come and I will enjoy the season.
hakkaa päälle !
Pritchard mentioned that they "overachieved" last season on Wheels at Work (see FanShots)
Due to the good chemistry of the young team. He sounded reluctant to say they championship window is open now. Maybe because he doesn’t want that pressure already but internally has that goal now (a bit like Brandon said it after the season). Or maybe he truly thinks they overachieved though by some stats like point differential they didn’t, and would be happy with a repetition of the results of the regular season and take whatever comes after that step by step. In the very tight Western Conference, anything could happen from another first round exit to a trip to the finals if you meet the right teams in order. I would only be disappointed if they missed the playoffs.
"I'm addicted to polo y'all...respect my fresh" - Travis25Outlaw
by Norsktroll on Aug 11, 2009 1:33 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
KP's goal should now be "build a playoff roster"
KP has done a great job so far of acquiring young talent who will play unselfishly and work towards winning a championship. But I’ve felt that since before last February the playoffs were a foregone conclusion—and there is still one piece that needs to be added to the roster to increase the odds of playoff success—that’s a veteran PF/C who can bang. That final piece doesn’t need to be added immediately, as long as he’s in place before next April. That’s when the games really start “counting” again
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
16=PDX party time
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
We've come a long way
Isn’t it weird to start setting aside that regular season win total and measuring the Blazers by their performance in the playoffs? It seems likes yesterday we had our fingers crossed to hit the .500 mark and our next big step would be getting out of the draft lottery.
I agree with Dave 100%, winning the division and getting home court advantage is the goal now. If we can do that in 50 wins I’ll take it!
I guess I agree BUT...
…it still seems like a semantic shell game. Last year reportedly McMillan’s catch phrase was 15=16, basicly in an effort to promote team unity, the team working together (15) to reach the playoffs (16) games. So last seasons goal was for this team to make the playoffs.
So obviously, if you have improved you want to maintain and continue to improve. To be a perenial playoff team you must perenially make the playoffs. Once you make the playoffs, the key is to achieve in the playoffs. You can’t really argue that # of wins in the regular season really impacts what you may or maynot achieve. I’m old enough to remember The Blazer season and playoff loss of 90-91, I’m also old enough to remember Denvers knock off of top ranked Seattle in the playoffs.
But it all becomes semantics, and a little bit of smoke and mirrors. They don’t call it the second season for nothing, so while yes, number of wins isn’t the same validating factor for a young team emerging as it should be for an established playoff team, number of wins still becomes important. Of the 3 stated goals:
1. Win their division.
2. Get homecourt advantage in the playoffs for as many series as possible.
3. Both of these are for the express purpose of getting past the first round. (You can read Get past the first round)
- and #2 will be tied directly into how many wins we can achieve. So I agree, if Portland becomes a perenial contender our pre-season focus should shift slightly from how many wins…to what can we really accomplish…are we division winners? Are we a team that can really threaten to win the championship?
But that all that aside, the seasonal win total is a way to quantify progress towards those goals. Finish with the most wins in the N.B.A. and you get to enter the playoffs knowing the road to the championship is paved through your homecourt. All teams are striving for that goal.
It all becomes smoke and mirrors when you discuss it. When a reporter or fan asks “How many wins can The Blazers get this season?” What they are really asking is “How good do you think The Blazers can be this season?” They are just using number of wins as an evaluatory benchmark for that distinction. It might not be the most precise prognastication as to the ultimate success of the team in the playoffs or even the most correct goal to hang your hat on, but it doesn’t matter.
Sooner or later it does come down to wins. Sooner or later what you want written on that Pre-Season chalkboard is 15=16, 16=Trophy! Because one truth remains, In The Playoffs it IS about number of wins. I’ve never seen a team with the less amount of wins in the playoffs hoist the trophy. I’ve seen upsets of favorites, I’ve seen great seasons left primarily wasted in light of a playoff tragedy. I’ve seen teams with lesser records entering the playoffs “Gel” at the right time and march to a Championship. (See Houstons 2nd Championship) BUT I’ve never seen a team that wins 13 0f 16, 14 of 16 or even 15 of 16 win the championship. So sooner or later….Wins matter.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
How about 15=16+16?
Well said kind friend.
This season is still about learning and gaining trust in themselves, their teammates and their coaches. Gel is the goal and playoff wins are the proof.
The Blazers probably aren't going to win 60 games this season, sorry to burst bubbles
It would take a very large unforseen step by Oden to produce 60 wins.
Besides winning 60 games is for teams who want to be tired come playoff time.
Blazer Fan
p.s. it doesn't surprise me Gavin Dawson was salivating over 60 wins
every morning I become more and more convinced neither of those morning guys know a thing about sports. Today Tiger Woods is a ‘very bitter man, and he’s still very young’, he’s ‘too big for the PGA Tour’ , his ‘act is getting tired’ and ‘he needs to grow up and join the rest of us adults’ to which I laughed heartily as I changed the station.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Aug 11, 2009 6:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I heard that too
and thought the MSP “boys” are the ones that need to grow up, Tiger is doing just fine.
I am not sure about that...
Oden has shown a lot of ability and promise already. On a PER basis, he was one of the top 10 centers to come into the league in the past 20 years. If he stays healthy and limits his fouls (it would not be shocking to see that transpire) Portland could definitely add a few wins this coming year.
As for the 60 win comment, spot on. Portland should not kill themselves to “win” the regular season.
I respectfully disagree
I am not into how many wins but what I disagree with is that Oden alone has to accomplish this increase. As I wrote in my post below, last year had 8 games that were lost by 5 or fewer points. A modest improvement in 2FG% (2%) and 3FG% (1%) and an additional 3 FTA drawn per game would have yielded 62 wins and 4 playoff wins. Those increases are consistent with the past accomplishments of Andre Miller and the return of Martell. Those are also consistent with Wages of Wins Journal’s assessment of the improvement in Portland by the addition of Andre and the removal of Channing and Sergio.
Makes me crazy......
……when somebody makes a definitive pronouncement about the future without giving any analysis or explanation of their position.
Why, why, why, why?
Your second observation is just factually wrong. Most of the eventual champions over the last 30 years have been either #1 or #2 seeds, and many have been over the 60 win threshold.
by upper left corner on Aug 12, 2009 6:41 AM PDT up reply actions
that's why I want 61 wins this season
I want a top seed and home court advantage in the playoffs.
How will we get to 61? We are a better team than we were last year, through the acquisition of Miller and the improvement of all the young fellows. – Elgin
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
It’s been a while since the playoffs were automatic, but in those days the number of wins really didn’t matter. They were certainly a barometer to see how you stacked up each year, but the goal was always the playoffs. I’d just about forgotten.
At some point, we stop celebrating the fact that we took the training wheels off.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
Playoffs are not enough
Homecourt really won’t be enough either. Homecourt for two series, and winning both of those, and I would consider it a successful run. Not that I won’t be disappointed if the Blazers lose the WCF on the road, but we still have to remember just how remarkable last season’s run was. 54 wins got us homecourt in the first round, but the matchup wasn’t favorable.
If I were to put any other objective on the season, I’d like to see the Blazers become the matchup problem for any team, and have absolutely no regard for opponent strengths and weaknesses (as in, I don’t want it to matter who we draw, the Blazers just go out and play their game and win).
by blacknoiseNW on Aug 11, 2009 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I think they are already there...
on the matchup issue. Find a team in the west that wouldn’t have trouble with the Blazers lineup — as is: Oden, LMA, Batum/Webster, Roy, Miller. You’ve got size, speed, toughness, smarts, skill. And that is just the starting lineup. Then the bench comes in: Przybilla, Outlaw, Batum/Webster, Rudy, Blake, and you have a unit that has the same qualities, but in different spots (but not as strong on the skill/smarts side).
I’d like to see Portland make noise in the second round. My only disappointment in last season was that the Blazers really weren’t that competitive in the playoffs, While they pushed the series 6 games, they got blown out in two, including the last one. I’d like to see them win the 1st round, and take the second round to at least 6 or 7 games, with all of the losses being close. (Obviously, I rather they won every game, but no one has ever won 98 consecutive games.)
60 wins is still an elite benchmark
So I wouldn’t discount the magnitude of such an achievement. However, this team is going to be goal oriented for years to come, and 58 wins probably nets the second seed, maybe even first. If 60 comes too soon, anything less will be a disappointment. 55-60 for the next 10 years works, if we all keep perspective.
I'm sorry but
isn’t it the goal of every good team to win the NBA Finals?? And can’t we call the Blazers a good team now?? I say dream big or go home. Of course, if they get to the second round next year, I’ll be happy. But if they lose before acheiving that trophy, I don’t think you can say that they acheived their goal.
I agree, with the caveat that
a bit of perspective must be applied. I am all with you that the end goal is the championship. Yet to win one involves a process. And while we as fans believe the team is maybe/probably ready to take that step or at least take a good shot at it, in reality, it may be a year or two away. And if the team does better in the playoffs, advancing at LEAST to the second round, preferabbly the WCF, then the season cannot be a failure.
Progress……..substantial progress, is an acceptable outcome for me.
"I'm a man, but I can change.....if I have to......I guess." - Red Green
by antediluvian on Aug 11, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
The process is to win the next game
Focus on the present and take them one at a time (which they did fairly well last year).
Another worthwhile goal for this season's Blazers should be...
To start the season ready and get off to a hot start. The schedule sets up favorably to accomplish that goal. A hot start would go a long ways towards giving this young team with confidence and we can plant the idea among the division competition that they are slugging it out for 2nd. The L*kers did that to the entire conference last season. I could see us doing that within our division next year with a hot start.
by 52therim on Aug 11, 2009 8:41 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
wins
I don’t believe in having a goal of a fixed number of wins, but it might not be a bad goal to strive to “challenge the Lakers for first place in the Western Conference”.
One more thing..
We need to beat playoff caliber teams on the road this season. Listening to TNT and watching ESPN, that was frequently brought up by broadcasters. We really struggle on the road vs. the best teams in the west. Reviewing the schedule again, here are the road games vs. western conference playoff teams from last year. I’ll include our road record in parentheses. I’m also going to list Phoenix. If they have Amare this year, they’re still dangerous.
@ Houston 10/31 (0-2)
@ New Orleans 11/13 (1-1)
@ Utah 11/28 (0-2)
@ Dallas 12/22 (0-1)
@ San Antonio 12/23 (1-1)
@ Houston 1/29
@ Dallas 1/30 (0-1)
@ Utah 2/3
@ Phoenix 2/10 (0-2)
@ Denver 3/7 (0-2)
@ Phoenix 3/21
@ Denver 4/1
@ L.A Lakers 4/11 (0-2)
Last year, vs. the OTHER top 8 teams in the west, we were 2-13 on the road. If you want this team to reach 60 wins, of the games listed above, we need to win 6-7 of the 13 listed.
Regarding Hedo Türkoğlu:
Look at the bright side, Blazers fans -- you dodged a bullet. He peaked statistically two years ago. He's allegedly 30 but could be closer to 32 or 33 for all we know. (Do you trust Turkish birth certificates? And isn't it weird that he played four years of pro ball in Turkey in the 1990s?)
- Bill Simmons of ESPN.com
by halo_on on Aug 11, 2009 9:06 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I think this is a great point
If the Blazers get more wins during the regular season, it will almost assuredly come through winning more road games.
2 years ago, the team was dismal on the road, going 13-28. Last season, they were better at 20-21. I’m not sure they can improve on their 34-7 home record, but winning more road games (and that probably means more wins against playoff teams) would be a great thing to see. And not just because of the added wins in the standings, but because of how it would improve the confidence of this young team as they move into the playoffs. They need to know that they can win on the road in San Antonio, Denver, Utah and even LA.
by Storyteller on Aug 11, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
The modest increase in shooting and drawing fouls as noted in my post below would have brought us wins in 8 more games including 6 on the road
And that includes Houston, Dallas and Cleveland.
In addition it would take 2 road games in Houston in the playoffs.
and now
As I think about it more, forget what I said before.
Right now there is one goal and one goal only. One game at a time folks.
Beat the Rockets!
One reason McMillan won a lot of games last year is he knows that you never look past the next game.
Note that Blazers had a better regular season record than the Rockets. Why? They were more consistent in beating the below .500 teams.
Why were they able to do that? Perhaps because McMillan is one coach who sticks religiously to the philosophy of “one game at a time”.
Forget the playoffs. The focus now should be on game 1 of the regular season. After that we can start thinking about game 2.
playoffs
Thinking playoffs at this point I think runs a major risk of an ass kicking in the regular season.
Keep de eye on de ball!
Big goal this year should be to win...
ON THE ROAD. Especially against the Lakers, Spurs and Nuggets. Then Celtics, Magic and Cavs. Great for home court tiebreakers and mental advantage in playoffs.
trust all is well
As noted in my post below the road record can reasonably improved by just a modest improvement in shooting and drawing fouls.
Eight game improvement and six on the road. This is just the Andre effect.
My goal
is for Oden to be healthy enough to play in all our games (or at least 90% of them). If that happens, AND he can stay motivated and fit, anything, including the NBA finals is possible and I think even probable.
Chances of this goal for Oden being met? My guess is 50% or a little less.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
I absolutely want the Blazers to reach 60 wins this season.
Sixty wins is not just a number. It means a lot of things:
- Elite team.
- Division winner, most likely.
- Championship contender.
- A team that comes out hard and disciplined every night.
- A team that beats other top teams on their home floor.
- A team all lesser teams expect to lose to.
- Home-court advantage, possibly throughout the playoffs.
- Media and fan attention. (It’s recognition and status, and it motivates players).
Michael Jordan had his Bulls teammates ready for war every night. He understood that the way you play the regular season sets the table for how well you do in the playoffs, and he understood the value of the home court advantage. He would laugh at the idea of a rising team not caring about going from 54 wins to 60, because he would say they should be striving to go from 54 to 82.
by MiledAnimal on Aug 11, 2009 9:25 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I completely agree..
No way Roy doesn’t want every game:
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/vince_thomas/08/11/brandon.roy/index.html
Plus are we really that far away from being a 60 win team?
Compare this seasons Blazers to last seasons Lakers:
Miller > Fisher
Roy = Bryant
Batum = Ariza
Aldridge < Gasol
Oden > Bynum
Bench:
Blake > Farmar
Bayless > Brown
Fernandez > Vujacic
Webster > Walton
Outlaw < Odom
Cunningham = Morrison
Pendergraph =Powell
Pryzbilla > DJ Mbenga
THe Blazers this year are easily as good as the Lakers last year and that team won the championship and won 65 games. Even if we win 5 less than they did then that puts us at 60. I believe it is very realistic to win 60 games. Miller adds 3 games, roy adds 1, aldridge adds 1, Bayless-pendergraph-cunningham-batum-and rudy together add atlest 2 mre games with their improvement, and the addition of a healthy martell webster adds 1 game. THis takes the team to 62 wins plus the improvement of Oden which would help us 4-6 games if he becomes a 15-12-2 guy. It should be expected to win 60 games unless injuries occur.
by philthebballplayer on Aug 11, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm a Blazers fan and this is just not true.. at all..
You can’t yet compare the Lakers and Portland.
Trying to compare their players vs. our players on an individual level doesn’t work from an analysis standpoint. Remember that the Lakers are a team with a proven track record of winning under Phil Jackson. There are so many intangibles that I could go on and on. Suffice to say, even as a diehard Blazers fan, we have a ways to go yet before we’re on the same level as the Lakers. I’d say at least another year, if not 2 years.
..and even if you’re comparing players vs. players, who cares about their bench as much?
Bryant is >>> Roy
Gasol is > Aldridge, but not by much.. at all..
..but it’s Odom that really lets this team turn the corner and continue having a shot at a title. There’s no way he would have ended up anywhere but in L.A this offseason. They have 2 talented and very physical forwards to throw at you. We have… 1? That’s a big deal. Our bench may be better but their starting lineup is honestly better than ours right now. What’s worse, now they have TWO amazing defenders in Artest and Kobe.
So no, as big a Blazers fanboy as I am, I’m also a realist. We’re 1-2 years away from competing with the Lakers for a championship. If we managed to get by them this year in the playoffs, it would be amazing. I can’t say shocked, but I would be very surprised. I think we just might need a year with Andre miller to iron things out and for Oden to solidify his game.
Regarding Hedo Türkoğlu:
Look at the bright side, Blazers fans -- you dodged a bullet. He peaked statistically two years ago. He's allegedly 30 but could be closer to 32 or 33 for all we know. (Do you trust Turkish birth certificates? And isn't it weird that he played four years of pro ball in Turkey in the 1990s?)
- Bill Simmons of ESPN.com
Watching Houston push the L*kers last year without Yao gave me hope
We were not ready to win last year but not very far from it. I do believe we have improved more than they. So do Wages of Wins Journal in a must read article where he breaks down the Blazers vs the L*kers after the summer changes and concludes that there is significant difference in talent between the teams now.
From that article
Travis Outlaw: 2,246 min., 2.6 Wins Produced,
Outlaw played the 3rd-most minutes last year but 7 Blazers produced more wins than Travis?
This has got to change
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
RT: They have 2 talented and very physical forwards to throw at you. We have… 1? That’s a big deal
Yep, and that needs to change.
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't know...
I wouldn’t say that Bayless is better than Brown, he’s more explosive than Brown but I don’t think he’s better. They may be equal. I would also say that right now Oden and Bynum are equal. I don’t know about Webster vs. Walton. Webster has a better shot than Walton for sure, but I don’t know about defense. We’ll have to watch next season and see. I’ve always thought that the Blazer’s bench was better than the Laker’s, but the Laker bench is tougher. I think if everyone gets just a little bit tougher on the Blazers, the team would find themselves up there on the NBA elite list. Here’s how I see it….
Miller > Fisher
Roy = Bryant, I’m waiting for the day Roy will surpass the greatness that is Kobe. I hope it happens.
Batum < Ariza and Batum < Artest
Aldridge < Gasol, maybe w/ Andre getting more shots for LA, LA will be able to step up & be considered as good or close to Gasol
Oden = Bynum, I may even argue that Bynum is a little bit better than Oden
Bench:
Blake > Farmar, 100 times better!!
Bayless = Brown
Fernandez > Vujacic, I really don’t understand why this guy is a basketball player and why his nickname is the machine
Webster = Walton, question mark here
Outlaw < Odom, I don’t really seeing Outlaw being able to surpass Odom
Cunningham = Morrison
Pendergraph =Powell
Pryzbilla > DJ Mbenga, best back up center in the league!!!!
But really, if the Blazers don’t get tougher next year, there’s just no way they will be considered better than the Lakers.
You stole my post!
What I want to know is how were able to read my mind as I was formulating my thoughts. (Possibly a bad sign for you though?)
How about?
*Respect from the referees
*Winning’s effect on player development
*Learning to win on the road
*Progress is progress
*Fan enjoyment
*Consistency gives a clearer picture of what changes need to be made
*Winning less games in the regular season does not help your second season chances
*Etc.
This is not to say that I do not get the point that winning, at all costs during the regular season, can be a bad idea. I am just saying that I think it is much better to win. 60 looks like a pretty healthy number to me if we are able to do it.
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
by KINGofMACct on Aug 11, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Dave's right, of course
I think we can and will win about 60 games, but I won’t give a damn if it’s mid-50s again and we win the division and end up with 2nd in the conference, like we were 1 tiebreaker from doing this recent season.
Homecourt as long as possible, win the division, set ourselves up for a long playoff run.
Since I think we’ll have a great season but not a championship one, I look at everything still as somewhat a test run. Experience a deep playoff run and the disappointment it brings when/if you fail, Oden showing he is Oden, Batum growing into the star-role-player we hope he can become, etc. Those are the elements that will bring us a championship in the near future, over a big season this year.
Anything can happen of course, and there isn’t any team I am truly scared of. If the Cavs had won it all, I think we’d all worry about an eternal midnight of Lebron for 8 years, but that didn’t happen and we match up well with just about anyone.
No matter what happens this post-season, the sky is the limit.
Mortimer
Well said about the timing
This year Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, San Antonio, LAL, and Dallas are going “all-in” to win now because each of those teams are winding down with aging stars while younger teams including the Blazers, Warriors. Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Thunder, etc are building strong cores for the future (and Blazers maybe very soon). Our time is almost here but the experience and talent on those teams will be very hard to overcome this year. Denver and Portland and Utah have not changed personnel dramatically but Portland the most of the three with Andre added, so winning the division is still a reasonable hope.
Like you I see the sky as the limit. But NBA weather has a nasty way of changing suddenly to close down that sky. I am enjoying each game and wherever it may lead us.
RT: No matter what happens this post-season
No one should be happy if the Blazers go one-round-and-out again this post-season. (Even if every game they lose is only by 1 point and they all go 3-4 overtimes)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
It's hard to disagree with the worthiness of these goals...
…however, I think that it’s also worth considering what we as fans want from our team in the long-term.
Of course I would love to see us finish with a division banner, a high seed and a great run in the playoffs.
What I would not want, however, is to see us jeopardize the long-term enjoyability of the team for short-term playoff success.
I look at a team like the 2006 Heat, which won the title once and quickly descended into mediocrity (or worse). The price they paid for that one title was blowing a core consisting of Wade, Odom and Butler. If I were a Heat fan I would prefer watching that core for 10 or so years (even if I knew they’d never win it all) to watching the Wade-O’Neal-Payton-Walker group win it once.
I guess that this is a long-winded way of saying that my goal for the 09-10 team is that they be good. This year, next year and the year after that. The observation is a bit off topic, since Mortimer didn’t say anything about leveraging our future for peak performance this year. I just raise the point because I think I’ve enjoyed watching this team grow and improve as much as I expect/hope to enjoy watching it play in the upper echelon in the coming years.
Giving myself license to speculate here
I believe it is possible for the Blazers with the addition of Andre and another year of experience to improve in the following areas (not limited to these but for this purpose only these):
Improve 2FG% by 2% from 49.1% to 51.1%
Improve 3FG% by 1% from 38.1% to 39.1%
Improve FTA by 3 from 24.0 to 27.0 per game
These improvements (in a vacuum with all else being equal) would translate to and additional 5.2 points per game.
Now adding those 5.2 points to every game in the season last year yields by my count an additional 8 wins in the regular season and 2 additional wins in the post-season (moving them on to face the L*kers). Also many very close wins become a little easier. It does not account for games where we had to foul to stop the clock to catch up and still lost by more than 5 points but for this purpose it is enough.
The free throws come from more close-in opportunities. This is a strength of Andre – setting guys up to score down low. Likewise the improved 2FG% and 3FG% comes from better penetration and more open shots. In all these suppositions are fanciful but maybe reasonable. I would like to see what you think?
Because there are several here that emphasize winning over playoff teams on the road
I went back and noted that three of the additional 8 game wins were over playoff teams on the road: Dallas, Houston and Cleveland while 6 of 8 were on the road and the 2 home games were also playoff teams Orlando and Dallas. Both playoff additional wins are on the road in Houston.
If I owned the Blazers, my goals for the team would be:
1. Make money
2. Entertain the fans
3. Keep the players happy
4. Build sustainable success
5. Have a strong community presence
If I had to name just on-court goals, they would be:
1. Entertain the fans
2. Compete in every game
3. Improve the team
"HA HA HA HA HA
I'm not laughing, I'm just listing the five ugliest Blazers ever."
- rockingharder
by jamon51 on Aug 11, 2009 12:27 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Not just one goal.... And individual goals have to be congruent with overall team goals.
This team has good motivators. I guarantee nobody in the Blazers coaching staff or front office will sit the players down and say “Boys, our goal is to win 60”, or “our goal is to go to the Western Conference Championship.”
The main, overriding, every year (for the next decade) goal is to win a championship. The main goal for EVERY game? Uh, WIN IT! Why else play?
Now, having said that, Nate’s going to break it down into smaller team goals and individual goals, and they’ll talk about them every practice..
Team goals like: win the division. Get home court advantage for the playoffs. Win on the road. Never lose more than 2 in a row. Protect home court. Win the season series against teams we play an odd number of times. Win each road trip. Win each home stand. Play better team defense. Hold teams to < 45% FG%. Run every miss. All players past mid court by 20 secs. Improve team pace to to 15 in the league. Hustle, at all times (cuz we have depth, baby!).
And then he’ll break it down for each player, and associate their goals with the team goals: e.g. Greg: avg 20+ mpg, and double-doubles with 2-3 blocks (which will) help teams goals like team defensive shooting percentage with your presence (which means don’t make dumb fouls). Be an intimidating rebounder… Etc…
“60 win goals” are just fodder for the lame talk show hosts to fill up a month of completely dead air time for sports in Portland.
Assuming...
Everything goes as planned, then we’ll probably end up with the 3 seed in the playoffs.
1) That Team from LA that noone likes
2) Spurs (Assuming they are healthy)
3) Blazers
4) Mavericks
5) Nuggets
6) Hornets
7) Jazz
8) Up for Grabs, look for a race between Pheonix, Golden State, and the Clippers.
Of all the teams in the western conference, the only once I am even remotely scared to play is the Jazz, just because they are a tough defensive team. Had we not gotten the misfortune of matching up with the Rockets, I feel last year’s Blazers could’ve beaten anyone else in the playoffs. Even the Lakers. We just happened to get matched up against a team with a solid inside/outside big man, and a speedy little point. Thats where we struggles the most, and it was exploited. Oh, and that Scola guy is solid. But, that’s another story.
Receddy-Rec-Rec
AMEN!
Does this mean I have to like Diogu now???
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