Millsap, Bass, or Take a Pass?
by Dave on Jul 9, 2009 12:45 AM PDT
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PrintSo...the new forwards being tossed around as potential Blazers free-agent signings are first Paul Millsap and then a back-up plan of Brandon Bass. Let's take a look at each individual player and then the ramifications of the situation as a whole.
Paul Millsap
Millsap is a 6'8", 245lb banger and rebounder. He's 24 and is coming off of a successful third year in the league. He's still under his rookie contract and is thus a restricted free agent. The Utah Jazz would have the right to match whatever offer the Blazers made and early indications are that they'd be willing to do so. This is not a surprise as Millsap was one of their most productive players. His value to them went beyond his 13.5 point and 8.6 rebounds per game. He was a solid contributor off the bench and even better as a starter when Carlos Boozer was injured. The Jazz scored 3.7 more points per 100 possessions when he was on the court than when he was off it. They allowed 4.6 fewer points to opponents per 100 possessions when he played. That's a net difference of +8.3 points per 100 possessions. Effective field goal percentage went up when he was in, opposing EFG% went down. Their offensive rebounding increased an amazing 5.4% with him on the boards. Defensive and total rebounding went up as well. There's practically nothing that the Jazz did better without Millsap than with him.
Millsap is primarily an inside player, a garbage guy. He trades on the offensive boards and putbacks. He doesn't have a vast offensive repertoire nor is he steady from range. He's a back-to-the-basket guy who sometimes gets too predictable. He's energetic and hard-nosed though. He flourishes with good players around him. He'd be the kind of guy who would bolster your team rather than lead it. The good news is that you don't necessarily have to run plays for him in order to maximize his effectiveness. Because of his style of offense he draws a lot of fouls. He's not a passer though, nor a continuity offense guy. He gets tunnel vision. That's actually one of his strengths, especially on the boards. Defensively he's fine as long as he can use strength and leverage to root people out. When he has to move outside his comfort zone (read: the lane) he can get taken. He's not the guy to guard your nouveau forwards. While the Jazz tried him some at small forward he's probably not destined for that position. He could swing the other way into the center position for stretches if the matchup was right. He actually acquitted himself quite well in the center minutes he did get last year.
Most of the things we said about David Lee a couple days ago apply even more to Millsap. His main drawback right now is his availability or lack thereof. As with Lee, he could have trouble playing a limited-minute role after playing 30+ mpg last year. You'd definitely have to find him time outside of LaMarcus Aldridge's rest periods.
Brandon Bass
Brandon Bass is a 6'8", 240lb pure athlete. He's strong and quick. He has a better face-up jumper than Millsap and better dunks but he's not the same post player nor is he as good of a rebounder (though he's still good on the boards). One advantage that he has over Millsap is lateral movement. He can defend quicker forwards, though his height is an issue (as it is for Millsap). Bass draws fouls and is a better free throw shooter than Millsap as well. He's also a play endpoint and doesn't have great hands. He's offensive-minded but he's not a guy you run your offense through. He generally knows which shots to take, however. He doesn't step beyond himself too much. He's energetic and hustles.
The Mavs were a little better on offense, defense, and offensive rebounding when Bass played than when he sat. They drew and hit more fouls. Like Millsap, Bass might be able to swing a little to center under the right circumstances. He has the strength and rebounding to hang there, but he doesn't have near the height.
One of Bass' clear advantages is suitability for a back-up role. He's also an unrestricted free agents, meaning there's no matching offer to worry about. He may come cheaper than Millsap for that reason, let alone production level.
The Situation
Either one of these players would be good gets for the Blazers. Millsap hasn't been considered much heretofore because the Jazz seemed committed to keeping him. Now they seem to be leaning towards Boozer again, making dual huge contracts for two power forwards a possible issue. Nevertheless they'd be letting talent walk for free if they don't match.
One issue with Millsap from Portland's point of view would be cost. There's no doubt they'd burn $10 million a year on this guy. Absent a trade he'd be a reserve. That's an expensive prospect...one you usually want to avoid. However the Blazers are facing a particular situation here. If they don't use their cap space before February it's going to be gone. Using it does not necessarily preclude making other moves, however. They'd just be guided by the usual over-the-cap rules. Therefore they have incentive to use it rather than not, provided they can find a player who helps. They're capable of getting a point guard or small forward via an over-the-cap trade. They'll not get a player like Millsap that way. For this reason it would actually make some sense to offer that contract now even though it wouldn't under other circumstances. Millsap is enough of a talent to ease some concerns about other moves that might have to follow. However Millsap would be THE signing of the summer. There wouldn't be room for anyone else.
Bass would not carry the same price tag, but he won't produce as much in the short term and might not ever. If you're looking in terms of dollars and cents cheaper is more palatable. But when you're looking in terms of cap space burning 70% of it essentially amounts to the same thing as burning it all because that leftover 30% would only be helpful under very specific circumstances. If, however, you could get Bass on the cheap he might turn out to be a better deal overall. You're shopping at Rodeo Drive for Millsap. Bass is more mall-store level. Perhaps a bargain can be had.
The bargain part could become important if the player we sign doesn't work out. If you get Bass at a reasonable level he will retain trade value. If Millsap peters out at $10 million a year he's not going anywhere in the new NBA. For this reason you want to be pretty sure of Paul and his place if you get him.
Another issue with Millsap's restricted free agent status is that the time involved in working through the deal could cause Portland to miss out on Bass. Once Millsap and the Blazers have agreed to terms (which takes time in itself) Utah has an extra week to consider. Probably Bass would still be there, but the Blazers could be left out in the cold if Utah matches late. This is a risk with any restricted free agent, however.
The biggest drawback to either of these guys is that they play power forward. Back-up power forward is a concern for the Blazers but it probably isn't the biggest concern. A significant amount (maybe all) of Portland's cap space would disappear resolving the team's third most pressing problem, at best.
Despite that, unless the Blazers have another target in mind it probably makes sense to take a stab at these players then execute whatever trades you need to after you sign one. Both have talent. Both could fit with some adjustment. If you're talking free agents (as opposed to using cap space for trades) they won't come much better than this at this point.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Would you pass on Odom?
Curious what the poll result would be if a fourth option was offered. Ben and others have described Odom as a “transformative” type player as opposed to an acquisition of a player merely “complimentary” to the team. Forget labels. Experience is the most favored attribute the free agent market offers for this team now. All statements from the team officials and BEdgers a week ago seemed unanimous. The question remains after the present committments, which player left brings this team the most valuable experience (playoff IQ, playbook execution, attitude, toughness).
I would rather have Odom
Over Turkoglu, Bass, Millsap, really any player available realistically throughout this offseason. As a player.
As a person, their are some better fits.
Patience :)
by TheGreatDane17 on Jul 9, 2009 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I like both Millsap and Bass...
But I would want to get one of these guys ALSO knowing that Portland will upgrade the starting PG with either Kirk Hienrich or (dream come true) Devin Harris. For the reason of maintaining Portland’s ability to land a player at the cost of Kirk or Devin, I think Brandon Bass is the better choice…. besides, I think Brandon Bass matches up better next to Joel Pryzbilla, because he has more range and speed to go with Joel strength and size.
Bass is cheaper and allows Portland to have more cap space to use in an uneven deal for either Hienrich or Harris. In this scenario I would like to see Blake go for sure, and Travis if need be. So, Blake+Outlaw+rights to Kopponen/Freeland+Future 2nd+Cap Space to land one of those two PG’s…
PG: Hienrich, Bayless
SG: Roy, Fernandez
SF: Webster, Batum, Cunningham
PF: Aldridge, Bass, Pendergraph
FC: Oden, Pryzbilla
I think that is a very good line-up… Webster or Batum and definitely going to BOTH need be stepping it up for Portland to really compete this upcoming season.
by Portland Dynasty on Jul 9, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Out of the two, I like Millsap
Bass would obviously be cheaper, but I’m a pretty big Millsap fan. We’ve got no money after this either way, so why not grab the best player available. If he’s not happy here after all he will be a fantastic trade asset.
I'd be stoked to have either
Millsap is the better player and Bass may be the better fit.
I Would hate for there to be chemistry issues from having 4 amazing bigs fighting for minutes in our frontcourt. Maybe signing one of these guys is a precursor of trades to come but if nothing else you got to be excited about adding more beastly young talent to this team.
One of my favorite Blazers ever was Buck Williams and the closest thing we’ve had since was Brian Grant. In the NBA you need guys who are tenacious on the glass. Channing was cut loose because he was a floater. We’re a good rebounding team, but would you say we have a tenacious rebounder? Joel. Okay aside from Joel. Greg is good at rebounding by virtue of his monstrosity but he definitely enjoys dunking and swatting more than anything. Plus, with the injuries our current bigs have sustained in the past, Millsap and Bass are great insurance policies (albeit expensive ones).
My mom babysat Paul Allen
We were #1 in rebounding last season.
I’m just saying. I don’t want a free agent. It seems an in season trade is the best option right now. We’ve improved nine games a year each year and last year we had four rookies all with upsides that are at this time unknown. Lets not get in a hurry to win a championship. I want what San Antonio has. A solid foundation for a long run each and every year for the next 5 to 10. That, we may already have. Don’t mess with a good thing. All our guys are hard workers, like each other, and seem to want to be here. Lets not give them a reason to want to leave.
Yes to Millsap
I don’t like overspending either but the situation is so that you almost have to do the counterintuitive and sign FA to a ridiculous deal. I wish I had watched more Jazz games because I don’t remember watching a second of Millsap. I have read a couple of things about him, I recall someone saying that he wasn’t just a garbage points player anymore, that he has developed a decent offense. I just hope this doesn’t cause a problem with LMA, because I would hate to lose LaMarcus at the cost of signing Millsap.
by neutroticblazerfan on Jul 9, 2009 1:15 AM PDT reply actions
Pass on Bass, Grab Millsap
There’s about a 90% probability Utah matches. He’s their future at PF, and they know it, and his timeline matches Deron’s. They are heavily in the luxury tax, but only for this year, and then Boozer is gone (and possibly Okur as well).
Yet, it still makes sense to sign him to an offer sheet. For one, if we get him (10% chance), we’ve got an absolutely killer big man rotation. And it gives us flexibility. If Bayless doesn’t take a step up, we can include Millsap as part of a trade for a good PG. If Greg does take a step up, and starts to give us a strong 30+ mpg, having Millsap makes Joel tradeable. Or it even gives us the option of including LMA in a blockbuster for an allstar PG.
In all probability, Utah matches (we can’t offer $12 million a year, which they might not be able to stomach). However, even if they do, we are better off for having made him an offer.
1) It puts a lot of pressure on them to trade Millsap or Boozer. Boozer is UFA next year. They would probably try to trade him for some cap relief. Two teams that could use him have players we could use (Hinrich, Prince). This has already been discussed in the sidebar at length.
2) It makes them sign him to a decent contract. Right now, he is paid peanuts, and his qualifying offer is very low. He has no security for his family right now. They can pay him $6-7 million a year and lock him up for 5 years, and if he gets no other offers, he is stuck. If he turns it down, plays for the Q.O., and gets injured, he hasn’t had a good enough payday to take care of his family. So they can offer him a middling contract of $6.5 mil but only if it is for five years, and he is stuck — no really big payday for a long time, but if he doesn’t take it, he’s taking a huge risk. By coming in with an offer, we force them to pay him reasonably well, which in the long run is going to limit their flexibility. When you have a team in your division with Deron Williams at PG, limiting their flexibility is not a bad thing.
Since Utah will almost certainly match any offer we make, it probably doesn’t make sense to sign him to an offer sheet if we have something worthwhile to do with our cap space right now. But there is nothing out there.
Sign him to an offer sheet, and put pressure on Utah. If they don’t match, we’ve got another top young talent on the roster, we’ve filled one of our weak spots in spades, and we have potentially another valuable trade asset (if we need to make a trade later). If they do match, we’re sitting and waiting for an unbalanced trade — exactly where we were yesterday. You really lose nothing by doing this, unless you think it is worth getting Bass (I’m dubious) or unless you think the unbalanced trade you’ve always wanted is imminent.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
exactly.
it’s a win-win IMO. we either take him or make Utah pay more than they otherwise would
"When jumpers are outlawed only Outlaw will take jumpers"-LoadedOrygun
by DominicanAvenger on Jul 9, 2009 2:48 AM PDT up reply actions
And a consolation prize would be cap space through deadline to make some noise.
So its win-win-win.
Sign him to offer-sheet and look what will happend.
In a worse scenario we are still 54-wins young squad with about 8 millions cap space through deadline.
Rudy & Nic
I am leaning towards Millsap too, but is Bass such a bad option?
Somebody who knows his/her stuff (not me) play devil’s advocate!
No, he's not a bad option at all.
Between the two Millsap is better but Bass would be an A grade pick up as well.
I think for this FA class and what's realistically available for his expected cost
It’s an A-.
If he’s going to make 25-30m only it’s pretty good value.
He fits better than Millsap as a back up to be honest, but the reason for that is exactly why you go for Millsap first. Because Millsap is better.
screw it
lets get them both and go with a lineup of all forwards.
by riccc_l on Jul 9, 2009 1:34 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
We also have centers!
Though instead of PGs we have SGs.
Personally I like Millsap.
The only situation in which I’d consider taking Bass is if we have a somewhat lopsided trade lined up for sure where that $3mil of cap space is used. Most lopsided trades seem like they’d be bigger than that.
Also in favor of Millsap: the “toxic contract”: apparently (from posts I’ve read here) we can give him a big signing bonus, which is spread out as concerns our cap, but is paid all at once – meaning Utah would be looking at spending even more money (luxury tax + bonus right away). So Millsap could cost them upwards of $20 million for the first year at least.
(This is secondhand info for me – if someone who knows it better could explain it, go ahead.)
Dave, not correct on the cap space.
They don’t “lose” it in February. They lose it when next year’s numbers are released. After the 2009-2010 Finals, they will still be under the cap. Shaq and Jefferson were traded in a similar manner this summer using 2008-2009 salary figures. They could sign Pendergraph and Mills to minimum contracts to round out the roster and still be under next summer.
Once the free agent signing period begins for 2010, that’s when we’d lose cap space, although even though Roy and LMA’s extensions kick in, Darius, Outlaw & Blake come off the books.
Patty Mills - PG of the future. Book it.
How can the Blazers
contemplate a trade after the 2009-2010 Finals when they just came off the rush of playing in those Finals?
—Dave
In actuality
If you waited that long you could no longer trade Przybilla, Outlaw, or Blake. So while your assessment might technically be accurate the Blazers would end up moving one of their deep core players under that strategy. In practical terms they need to make a deal by February unless they’re looking at moving one of the core three players or one of the young, exciting players. They lose options after the trade deadline passes.
—Dave
i think kp has the same trouble with other gms and i do with chicks
right now is he is probably coming off as too available, and wanting, needy etc. and other gms know he has alot of money and talent to give up in return. mabey he is addicted to the perfect pritch slaps. anyway if oficially we pull out of the race mabey the we may get alot better offers from other teams wanting to get under the cap
Milsap equals win win...
weaken a division rival, get even better interior defense. Can you imagine the rotation of Oden, Pryz, LMA, Milsap. Scary….
A lot of Milsap love
My hunch tells me Portland is going to blow everything on Milsap and he signs with Utah.
He’s good, too good. Bass to me seems more reasonable, and would fit in better as a secondary PF.
Millsap vs. Bass (both 23 last season, so they would fit our core)
Last season: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?i
Career 4 years Bass vs. 3 years Millsap: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=715Kp
Look at Per 36 and Advanced stats, since Millsap is usually playing 10 minutes more than Bass.
In terms of maximizing value for money (ca. 5-6 million vs. as much as possible), still having a player capable of playing more minutes as needed also due to his ability to play quicker players, and not so easily getting a disgruntled guy when he sees limited action, I’m more a fan of Bass. It’s undeniable though that if we are looking for the better low-post “banger” and rebounder and passer, it’s Millsap.
The hardest competitor for the services of Bass should be Dallas (the team he knows) and Orlando (a team where he potentially could start now that Hedo is gone and Lewis likely shifts to SF). For Millsap of course it’s Utah and maybe OKC.
I would like either acquisition, because that’s a player type this team is lacking, we just passed up on a chance to get this type for very cheap in the draft (Blair), and last year we were routinely having problems against teams that had this kind of player to work against LaMarcus and his backups.
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
I would like either acquisition, because that’s a player type this team is lacking, we just passed up on a chance to get this type for very cheap in the draft (Blair), and last year we were routinely having problems against teams that had this kind of player to work against LaMarcus and his backups
Either fits our need as a backup PF. I think a lot depends on the what the plans are with Joel. Bass is good, for the price and he fits with Joels game better than Millsap. Just as long as we don’t dink around and lose a chance at both.
To summarize: Wade too quick, Kobe too skilled, LeBron too physical - Batum
Sorry, haven't quite figured out the quote thing yet
Norsk quote at top, my thoughts at bottom.
To summarize: Wade too quick, Kobe too skilled, LeBron too physical - Batum
Cap Spafe
Personally I think it is fools gold to expect any type of cap space next year.
Roy, and Aldridge contract will have to be big, (otherwise they won’t sign), and will extend over the cap. Even though Miles will come off the books, they won’t have much buffer.
Also as this offseason has show, it is very difficult for Portland to play in the FA game.
A secondary player like Misap, or Bass is exactly who they should concentrate on. Now!
BTW, this has not been confirmed by the Blazers, so right now it's speculation.
This is being reported by Quick from “sources”. It might not even be true. I can’t get a read on this one, so when an offer sheet is signed, I’ll believe it.
Patty Mills - PG of the future. Book it.
Some Measurements for Millsap
Height w/o shoes 6’ 6.25"
Height w/shoes 6’ 7.25"
Wingspan 7’ 1.5"
No step vertical 11’ 2"
Bench press 15
I like this player but do not want to go after Bass.
Millsap would be awesome ... how soon could he be traded?
I’m all for the Blazers offering all their cap space in making an offer to Millsap. He’s a great player and — except for price — just what the Blazers needed, and what just about everyone wanted them to get. But I don’t want to get into his “good fit” as a player. A few ideas:
1. If Utah, a major division rival, does end up matching, it will hurt. That’s a good thing right there. All it would cost us is a seven-day delay where we might risk losing out on Bass. A chance worth taking. Maybe you can convince Bass to wait until the Jazz make their decision before he accepts an offer of his own. If no one ends up making an offer to Millsap, or offers the mid-level, Utah will really score by getting him for cheap.
2. If we do get Millsap, when could we trade him again? I’m not necessarily saying I want to trade him, but could he be in essence flipped like an old house in 2005? I ask this because there are surely other teams who would like to have a Millsap but can’t afford him. But I could see us offering him in trade, possibly with a few other smaller, favorable contracts like Outlaw and/or Blake, and bring back a real $14-18 million star in return. Maybe that’s how we get Devin Harris, for example.
3. I broached this idea in a different post, but what if Millsap is the guy we keep and we offer Aldridge in trade instead? I’m guessing it would have to be after we extend him so that we could bring back a big contract in return. I’m a pretty big Aldridge fan and would hate to see him go after watching him develop and seeing his potential for getting even better. But, he would make a pretty killer chip in trade, especially if offered with a quality teammate or two (depending on the player, I’d even say anyone but Roy and Oden). Maybe Aldridge, Outlaw and Rudy gets us a superstar PG or SF. Would you rather have a top-shelf PG and Millsap, or Blake/mid-level PG and Aldridge?
Dec. 15th I think
I’m not sure of the exact date, but that’s the one I keep hearing. It should be well before the trade deadline in Feb.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
When you are thinking the same way I do
it is time to be very afraid. :)
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
My guess is
the same “poison” contract that would convince Utah not to match the offer would also diminish his value on the market.
—Dave
good point
I wonder if there is a balance between an offer Utah won’t match and a contract that doesn’t look completely unappealing if we want to move Millsap later.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
Of course
Use a signing bonus.
We pay that up front. Utah has to match it. But after it’s paid, it isn’t so unpalateable to other teams.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
This is designed to hurt Utah
My guess is this offer to Millsap is designed to cause Utah to pay more for him. We will then go pick-up Bass or the like for less $$.
One other thing
The biggest drawback to either of these guys is that they play power forward. Back-up power forward is a concern for the Blazers but it probably isn’t the biggest concern. A significant amount (maybe all) of Portland’s cap space would disappear resolving the team’s third most pressing problem, at best.
I’m not sure KP agrees with that assessment.
We expect a significant upgrade at backup PG (perhaps starting PG) from Bayless’ development. You may not expect that, but KP is a Bayless believer. When he thought he had an agreement with Hedo, he said he wasn’t done, but that he wasn’t targeting the PG position. Bayless keeps getting chosen for the Select Team. He’s for real, and KP knows it. There is at least a 75% chance that we are better overall at the point than we were last year, that Jerryd this year is significantly ahead of both his and Sergio’s level from last year.
At the 3, a reasonable person could expect significant improvement with the return of Martell and another year of maturity for Nic. We don’t know if that will happen, but it certainly could. There is probably at least a 50% chance that we will be stronger at SF this year than we were last year, just with the guys we have.
The backup PF spot is the only weakness on the roster that doesn’t have a reasonable chance of being significantly stronger this year simply by internal development. Pendergraph may be a solution in the future, but the likelihood that he comes in and gives us a significant upgrade his first year is low.
Remember, any improvement anywhere in the lineup probably increases on our 54 wins. We don’t have to strengthen every “weak spot”. Any strengthening is good.
We’re loaded. Absolutely loaded. We won 54 games, and KP is thinking about throwing $8-9 million a year for five years at our backup PF spot, because all our other weaknesses are likely to improve just by internal development. Think about that. Cap space to burn, and no place where we actually need to spend it. But it is an opportunity you don’t want to waste.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 9, 2009 2:05 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
You were saying throughout last season Jscot
that Bayless would be our starting PG this season. Sure he will …. if injury takes out our other PG’s. Doesn’t it matter that to this point in his NBA career Jerryd has not shown any ability whatsoever to run a team or to make outside shots? It would be wonderful if he works out for us, but we’ve seen little or no indication so far that he will (I know, I need to keep in mind that he’s very young.)
So I tend to disagree that we are set at the PG position. At the very least we need to come up with a reliable (probably veteran) backup to Blake or I guess to replace Blake as so many here (not necessarily me) are wanting.
It seems we have this cap-space money burning a hole in our pocket and by god we’re going to spend it come hell or high water. Personally I’d prefer not to overspend on a “backup” power forward…..and overspending is what we’d probably have to do to pry Milsap away from the Jazz.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
Well, I'm not sure we are set this year
And I didn’t say he would be our starter this year, I said perhaps this year but by the start of next year. I won’t be surprised if he ends up starting before the end of the year, but it isn’t a certainty.
KP is the one who said he wasn’t targeting the PG position. The people who choose the Select Team are the ones who keep choosing Jerryd. Those people are smarter than you or I (thankfully).
What is at least a 75% probability is that our backup PG position is going to be better this year than it was last year, and that makes us stronger. And last year, we won 54 games….
So I think it is reasonable to go into the season without a major move at PG. There is no doubt it is a place we could improve, but I’m not sure it is more urgent to improve there than at backup PF. Any improvement at any position is just gravy….
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
I don't mind getting either
Bass is a better fit as a compliment to Przybilla and Oden with his midrange jumpshot as well as cheaper and more likely to be content with a long term back up roll.
Millsap is the better player, but a slightly awkward fit both in terms of skills which compliment Oden/Joel and as a backup player earning big dollars. Millsap does offer us a range of possibilities in the trade market as well as hurting a division rival.
Maybe come Feb. Oden will no longer need Joel backing him up and we can feel comfortable with a Aldridge, Oden, Millsap big man rotation. Maybe the Millsap experiment doesn’t work out and we just want to trade him instead (after Dec. 15th I believe). We’ve got tons of trade options with Millsap’s talent. We could even go uber drastic and trade Aldridge knowing that Millsap can start and play well.
I think Bass is low risk, low reward while Millsap is medium risk, high reward. We’re going to use up all of our cap space to sign Millsap and that could hamstring us on other deals. Signing Bass still gives us 3-4 million to play with or use in a lopsided trade.
I like the variety of options and strategy that signing Millsap provides and I like the fit of Bass.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
Since other teams are interested in Bass
you might have to overpay to get him, while with Millsap we can’t overpay (he’s worth everything we can offer).
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
His own agent says nobody is giving him the full MLE
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
what a bad agent
clearly everyone is getting 10 million/year offers
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
While he (Bass agent Tony Dutt) wouldn’t pinpoint the exact amount his client is looking for, Dutt did say he doesn’t believe Bass will sign for a team’s full mid-level exception. "While I think he’s worth it, it doesn’t look like he’s going to get that kind of money. It’s a different market these days and guys are signing for a lot less."
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
how far over the MLE can other teams go?
I assumed the MLE when I guessed 3-4 million left over
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
Dallas can go over MLE
If we target him, will Cuban just let him go?
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
They can't, they just have his Early Bird Rights = a contract only up to the MLE when over the cap which Dallas clearly is
He was drafted by the Hornets, then they gave up on him and he came to Dallas as a free agent on a 2-year deal.
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
I like both but
Bass would be a better fit. I think PF is a more pressing issue than Dave thinks. Bass could fill the back up roll better than Millsap in my opinion. I’d be happy with either and incredibly bummed if we get neither.
From a Jazz fan
The way the Jazz front office has been talking, they may be willing to make the sacrifice, match on Millsap and take the $10M hit in luxury tax for one year, to ensure that they aren’t left at the end of next year with no power forward at all.
But as someone who has watched Paul Millsap for 82 games a year for three years, I’m telling you right now: Paul Millsap is not worth $10M/yr for five years. Not yet. And especially not as a backup.
Also, other than the obvious fun of frakking over a division rival either by stealing their player or forcing them to pay too much for him… why do you want Millsap? He’s not gonna start over Aldridge or Oden, and he can’t really play center, certainly not better than Przybilla. I’m not sure what Portland fans are so giddy over.
I mean, if the Jazz match such an offer, they’re basically saying, "This is our PF for the foreseeable future, as we expect to trade Boozer/let him walk next year, so we can justify the expense." In fact, the Jazz were ready to do that very thing this year, until Boozer complicated things (read: screwed us over) by opting in.
But the situation is different in Portland. You’ve already got your long-term starters at the 4 and 5 (and an excellent backup at the 5 as well, but Millsap can’t play that position anyway). if you want to pay $10M/yr or more for five years for a backup power forward who’s going to play < 15 minutes a game, and you have to try to pay Roy and Aldridge and Oden and other players to keep them around in the meantime… well, good luck with that.
I mean, by 2011 you’re gonna have five players (Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Millsap and Webster, to say nothing of Przybilla or Blake if you want them around) taking up about 90% of your salary cap. That sounds an awful lot like my own Jazz this year.
I dunno. I understand what everyone is saying here, and I’m sure you’re all a lot more familiar with your team’s numbers than I am. But I’m not seeing how paying that much for Millsap makes sense when you’re already committed to essentially three max contracts in Roy, Aldridge and Oden. Unless, as mentioned above, you’re not committed to Aldridge and would consider trading him/not re-signing him. In which case, we’d be more than happy to take Aldridge off your hands, because I’m telling you right now: he’s better than Paul Millsap.
My thoughts.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
I don't think it does make sense
under normal circumstances. But we’re kind of in a Bizzaro world at the moment.
—Dave
It's nice to hear some reasonable talk for a change.
Thanks Shums.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
There are several reasons the Blazers might do this.
1. They are trying to force Utah to trade Boozer in a 3-way deal the Blazers have a vested interest in.
2. It makes Pryzbilla expendable and they have an offer for him.
3. It forces Utah to take a salary cap hit if they match, and limits their options as a division rival. With Portland under the cap this year (if Utah retains Millsap), Portland will get a cut of Utah’s luxury tax money.
4. It addresses one of the Blazers’ weaknesses from last year.
5. We’re ok with 5 players taking up 90% of our cap, because we are already at 54 wins with these guys.
6. Paul Allen is rich, the Blazers are his toy, and if it brings a championship he could care less how much it costs.
Patty Mills - PG of the future. Book it.
7. Oden has suffered injuries the last 2 years. If LMA goes down, PF is a gaping hole.
Patty Mills - PG of the future. Book it.
hey Shums
Would you be happy to take Aldridge off our hands for Deron Williams? If we throw in Bayless?
I wonder if Aldridge would be made available in trade for a top-shelf PG if we get Millsap. D-Will definitely fits that bill. I agree with Shums that Aldridge is better than Millsap, but I think Millsap/D-Will is better than Aldridge/Bayless.
Heck to the no
Deron Williams is now the Jazz franchise. He is absolutely untradeable, under any circumstances.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
People who know the CBA better than I do... correct me if I am wrong!
Millsap is actually perfect because of an oddity in his status as a 2nd Rounder RFA. As I understand it, second rounders who are signed as RFA can only receive a maximum of the MLE for the first two seasons of their contract and then can receive up to the maximum for a RFA coming off of his rookie contract. The caveat is that a team can only sign the RFA to a contract where the yearly average is less than the teams salary cap. So if Portland signed Millsap to a 5 year $50M contract, it would break down like this:
2009/10: $5.9M
2010/11: $5.9M
2011/12: $12.5M
2012/13: $12.7M
2013/14: $13.0M
If I am correct, Portland can sign Millsap and keep him as a very reasonably priced backup and then when his contract is about to balloon up, Portland can package him with any of their 2008 NBA rookies (Bayless, Fernandez, Batum) who will be in line to receive a big contract (and it is also evident that Portland will not be in a position to offer that contract to them) in exchange for the star of a team that is looking to rebuild at the trading deadline in two years.
If this is the way Millsap’s contract has to be structured under the CBA (I am 90% sure it is), then this is a great move for Portland.
Tony Bennett reports that Minnesota and Portland are swapping draft picks -- Roy to Portland, Foye to Minnesota. That's it? That's the trade? None of the ESPN guys seem remotely fazed. I knew Kevin McHale couldn't just pick the best guy in the draft without somehow screwing it up. I would have bet my Ndudi Ebi rookie cards on it.
I'll tell you right now
if the contract is structured like that, the Jazz will match in a nanosecond. It’s this year they’re worried about, not 2011/12. By then Boozer’s and Kirilenko’s salaries will be gone and the Jazz would be just fine paying $12.5M for Millsap.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
I don't think that the same oddity applies to the Jazz
Looking at Monta Ellis, when Golden State resigned him, his contract was evenly distributed. I don’t know where I heard that that was how second round restricted free agents work, but I am almost positive that that is the case for teams that sign the player as a restricted free agent.
Tony Bennett reports that Minnesota and Portland are swapping draft picks -- Roy to Portland, Foye to Minnesota. That's it? That's the trade? None of the ESPN guys seem remotely fazed. I knew Kevin McHale couldn't just pick the best guy in the draft without somehow screwing it up. I would have bet my Ndudi Ebi rookie cards on it.
by Salem Stephen on Jul 9, 2009 3:01 AM PDT up reply actions
How excited would you be for Millsap...
If you somehow knew that LA plans to follow max money and Texan loyalty to Dallas/Houston/San Antonio? Is it possible that KP is thinking that far ahead? Considering our luck with FAs recently… it’s not out of the question to see LA going to to the Spurs for even less money to be closer to his son and family.
Prepares to dodge stones
We have the right to match any contract offer the LaMarcus Aldridge...
He is going no where. Plus in his recent interview in the Oregonian (I believe) he talked about Texas being his home, but Portland being the place he wants to play basketball. There was also something about him being okay making less than Brandon.
Tony Bennett reports that Minnesota and Portland are swapping draft picks -- Roy to Portland, Foye to Minnesota. That's it? That's the trade? None of the ESPN guys seem remotely fazed. I knew Kevin McHale couldn't just pick the best guy in the draft without somehow screwing it up. I would have bet my Ndudi Ebi rookie cards on it.
by Salem Stephen on Jul 9, 2009 3:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I remember reading that article.
I didn’t realize he was an RFA next year. Shows how much I know… Good to know :)
Yeah...
Both Brandon and LMA are on their rookie contracts, I believe.
Which is why one of our goals was to resign them before the season. This way, we don’t even give them a chance to test their value. Because matching those offer sheets would be hell on Paul Allen’s wallet.
When I went out to dinner tonight we had a developing Big 3
of Roy, LMA and Oden, with the league’s best backup center in Joel. Roy has already made it, LMA is on the cusp of making it, and well, everything depends on Oden eventually making it. But we have Joel that allows us to manage Oden’s minutes and potential injuries for the next 4-5 years (big guys like Joel last many years playing limited minutes).
When I came home from dinner Trader Bob, eh, rather KP was rumored to be willing to spend $50M on an 18 minute a game backup for LMA (which is not even our 2nd most important need), which will undoubtedly mess with LMA’s head, and destroy the team chemistry while we wait to see who (LMA, Millsap, or Joel) get’s traded next Feb. Holy cow, are we going back to collecting talent and ignoring team chemistry again? It’s the Twilight Zone …
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 9, 2009 4:31 AM PDT reply actions
We've got that cap money and we just HAVE to spend it.....
whether it makes sense or not.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
After reading this I'm kind of leaning towards Brandon Bass now
"Should I ask? What's a punani?" - by annthefan on May 3, 2009 1:55 PM
by Sexual Tyrannosaurus on Jul 9, 2009 6:03 AM PDT reply actions
Millsap
I like Bass as a backup or Odom for two years.
I just don’t think there are minutes to go around for Millsap.
"Oh yeah? You can Derelique my balls."
"I can Shavlick my own balls."
Why does the money matter?
Why as a fan, do I care how much our backup power forward makes? We will be over the cap for the entire length of the contract, so a cheaper backup 4 won’t help us sign anyone else. The only person this should matter to is Paul Allen because he will have to pay the salary and probably the luxury tax.
In fact, paying more for Millsap is probably better from a salary cap and roster management perspective. Millsap at 8 million will be more usefull on the trade market than Bass at 5 million, particularly at the end of their contracts.
Also, if we do sign Bass at around 5 million, do we really have enough extra cap space to sign anyone we need? It will get eaten up by filling out the roster and then we won’t have any cap space at the deadline. So really, either Bass or Millsap will take all our cap space away, so why not get the better player?
Why did we draft Cunningham and Pendergraph?
I understand that Milsap and Bass are proven players who can play, and the rookies are, rookies. But wouldn’t we want to wait and see how the two rookies play…all we are looking for is a backup PF to add toughness, rebounding and defense.
I also understand that other things might get done in terms of trades and what not, but our obvious needs, at least if we are talking close to 10 mil. per year for a player, are starters in the PG and SF positions.
Does getting Milsap and Bass make Pryzbilla and possibly Aldridge available for trading?
We definitely need a perimeter scorer who can create opportunities and take some pressure off Roy.
Any insight out there?
Can somebody explain the process of RFA offers, matches, etc.
Are there restrictions on the number of offers, or any sort of waiting period per offer that avoids what essentially would be an auction? Basically lowballing an offer and seeing if it gets matched and then offering increasing offers from there until it isn’t matched?
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
I like Millsap.
He’s undersized, but if there’s anything we’ve learned about the NBA, it’s that undersized guys work the hardest at their position (Rodman, Barkley, Love, etc).
He’s a banger (which we’ve been claiming to need for awhile now), works hard, great offensive rebounder, and is offensively fairly efficient.
My only worry is that we’ll overpay for him to pry him away from Utah.
Also, given that he’s only 6-8, is there any possiblity of playing SF in a bigger lineup? Running Something like
Oden
Aldridge
Millsap
Rudy
Roy
with Roy and Rudy to spread the floor and the other 3 to pound the middle? Seems like it could work in the right situation.
As it stands now, we need to convert the cap space into the biggest possible asset, not a few smaller assets. Paul Millsap is the best choice, at 24.
The thing being underrated is the signing bonus. Paul would give Millsap 9+ million in cash at the time of signing the contract. This would mean that though Millsap would be technically counting 9 million against the salary cap, it would only be seven million per season in real dollars.
Seven million per season for Millsap? Owners would like that.
draft the stache
Exactly right
It makes it more painful for Utah to match, because they will be paying heavy luxury tax this year. And it maximizes his trade value for the rest of his contract, should we decide to trade him later.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Again, does anyone know if there's a moratorium period on newly signed players?
Cablinasian offers a great scenario, but I’m really curious if there are any restrictions in how soon you can trade a player you just signed. Does anyone know for sure?
I just keep thinking that yes, even with Paul Allen’s bucks, what we’d have to offer Millsap to keep the Jazz from matching (or to make it really hurt if they do) is way more than a backup PF is worth. So I must think that it’s really all about trades — either trading Millsap or Aldridge, perhaps with additional players like Outlaw included, for a star PG.
It would depend on how he was acquired
If he’s signed as a free agent then he can’t be traded for three months or until December 15th, whichever comes later. (Obviously Dec. 15th in this case.)
If he’s acquired in a sign-and-trade then the situation is more murky. Normal trade rules say you cannot move a guy you’ve just acquired for two months unless you trade him and him alone, in which case you can move him immediately. But there’s no clarity on whether a sign-and-trade is considered more like a trade or a signing. That rule will have to be adjudicated when somebody tries it. Since the Blazers are already pretty avant guarde in pushing rule definitions, it would just be perfect if we were the trial balloon here.
—Dave
MILLLLLLLSSSSSSSAAAAAAAAAPPPPPPP
Okay so heading into next year our front court rotation would be Greg, LA, and Millsap. HOW FREAKING SWEET IS THAT????
Wow, now that, that’s just awesome.
JAWESOME!!
Post 2011
I think to have a chance to win it all with the young team that we have a good rebounder at power forward on the roster for two years is the best we’re going to do in this financial climate. I don’t think Portland is going to be a player in next summers FA bonanza. I think though several players in the 2006-2008 drafts will have matured to the point that we might be able to trade for a quality player for the 2011-2012 and by that time we’ll have better economic conditions (at least stable) and be in a better position salary wise.
If the rumors are true he'll take the MLE or less...
I say go for Millsap…
Bass would be a good backup for LMA and would probably be better in the long run, but if we want to make a good push now for a title I think Millsap is the better option.
Blazers win!
Its Bass that won't get the MLE amount
Millsap is rummored to be around 8 million or so, in a front loaded contract to force Utah not too match.
I vote for Bass, he not as good but he’s cheaper, I have a hunch he’d be a better fit at the secondary PF.
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