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NBA All-Stars and their Draft Classes (updated)

This years NBA draft was supposedly one of the weakest drafts in recent history.  After thinking about this for a while, I came to the following questions:

 

  1. Do some draft classes produce substainally more All-Stars (and All-Star selections) than others?
  2. Is there a pattern to the number of All-Stars in draft classes?

With the help of Wikipedia and Basketball-Reference.com, I put together a list all of the All-Stars that were drafted starting with the 1976 draft. Before, I get to the findings, a couple of notes:

  • I started with the 1976 draft because I felt that looking at only the post-merger NBA would provide for more consistent data than mixing pre and post-merger data. I also felt that looking at 30+ draft classes would be more than enough to find any patterns that may exist
  • The data that I complied can be found here.
  • If an undrafted player became an All-Star (Brad Miller, Ben Wallace), I used the draft that they were eligible for as their draft class.
  • Obviously the data becomes skewed as we approach the more recent draft classes, pleasTe keep this in mind.
  • I wasn't statistically rigourous with my analysis (i.e. I didn't test for normality, etc.). If you wish to do this, please post the results in the comments

The first chart I looked at was the number of different players in the draft class to be selected to an All-Star game. This measure seems to be the most common for ranking draft classes.

Most years produce between 5 and 8 All-Stars. This was a tighter range than I expected. Thus to be a truely "bad" draft class 3 or fewer All-Stars will have to be drafted. An interesting point is that the only instances with fewer than 4 All-Stars in a draft class occured after the round of expansion that added the Raptors and the Grizziles. Will this mean that expansion will cause a recalibration of how many times a player needs to be an All-Star to be considered "great"? 

 

Next the chart of the total # of All-Star selections for each draft class.

Here the 1984, 1985 and 1996 drafts stand head an shoulders above the rest in this measurement. Granted there still is plently of time for the post-2000 classes to rack up All-Star selections, but there does seem to be a define gap between draft classes that rack up large amounts of All-Star selections. Part of this effect is that a only a limited number of spots on the All-Star team are truely up for grabs (barring injury there is no chance that Kobe, LeBron, Wade, CP3, and a couple others aren't going to be All-Stars next season). Once you reach the hollowed ground of being an All-Star lock (often known as being an All-Star starter), then you generally keep that spot for the rest of your career. Meaning that there is one fewer spot for other players from later draft classes, unless you hit that sweet spot of opportunity when there are few spots locked in (as the 1996 and 2003 draft classes appear to have done).

Also the 2000 draft looks really bad in this measurement.

 

And the final chart, the average # of All-Star appearances by draft class (essentially the values of chart 2 divided by the values of chart 1). Were there a lot of 1 time All-Stars in a class? Was there a great player in a draft? This chart shows that.

The 4 highest peaks on this chart are 1976 (Alex English, Robert Parish, Adrian Dantley, Dennis Johnson), the 1984 draft (MJ, Hakeem, Barkley, Stockton), 1992 (Shaq, Mourning) and 1997 (Duncan, T-Mac). It seems that a high value  in this chart corresponds very well with having one or more of the greatest players of their generation in that draft.

As a side note, of the 183 different who have been drafted since 1976 and named to an All-Star game, 62 of them (33.9%) were named to only 1 game, 69 players (37.7%) were named to 2-4 All-Star games, 36 (19.7%) were named to 5-9 All-Star games. Only 16 players have been named to 10+ All-Star games (although there are a couple of active player who seem to be good bets to reach that milestone)

There are a couple of questions that remain unanswered:

  • Did the NBA's expansion in the 1990s impact this data? If so, how?
  • How large of an impact does being named an All-Star starter have on your likely hood to be named to multiple All-Star teams? 
Update After reading some comments, I found a database of NBA player minute data. I then looked at the minutes played by the first 15 selections in over the same period. I chose the first 15 to keep a consistent sized sample for each draft class as due to expansion there are more 1st round picks now than there were in the 1980s. Then I added the number of All-Star selections and made this scatter chart

The 3 dots in the upper right corner represent the 1984, 1985, and 1996 drafts. All told, there seems to be a clear trend that the more minutes that the first 15 picks of a draft play, the more All-Star selections that it produces.

11 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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Cool stuff.

2003 is going to climb steadily in totals.

I think 06 achieves 5 stars at the most. Roy, Aldridge, Rondo, Millsap, MAYYYYBE Bargs if he gets better. Peaking at no more than 3 per appearance.

by Bskey on Jul 9, 2009 1:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This examines the star-power of each draft class, but perhaps a more illuminating analysis would be a study of how many NBA minutes played each draft class produced.

A really huge project, obviously, unless every player is listed in a big database somewhere — but still, it’s probably productive NBA minutes rather than All-Star appearances that is the measure by which a “good” or “bad” draft class is judged.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 9, 2009 8:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

exactly what I was thinking Timbo

literally word for word.

or maybe look at the total minutes played by lottery picks? I think it would be easier to focus on lottery picks and probably just as informative.

by austinpwnz on Jul 9, 2009 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting Analysis

Along the lines of timbo’s alternative analysis query, though in a different direction, what interests me is how long it generally takes to tell how many high quality players a draft class has. I don’t think anyone expects additional All-Star appearances from members of the 2000 draft class, but are there players in the 2003, 2004, or 2005 draft that are just coming up to speed having finally learned how to play in the league? This year, for example, Danny Granger was a first time All-Star this year drafted in 2005. Devin Harris and Jameer Nelson were a first time All-Stars drafted in 2004. Mo Williams was a first time All-Star drafted in 2003.

Breaking into the All-Star game may not be the most accurate indicator of the strength of a draft though, of those listed in the east, some were replacements for injured players, it was just good fortune that they made it. It would take some cross reference between minutes played and productivity. Raymond Felton was fifth in the league in minutes this year, for example.

by baduk on Jul 9, 2009 9:53 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Similar analysis is at 82games. A lot of other good stuff on the draft there also (by team, by college, etc.)

by stikit on Jul 9, 2009 4:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Cool stuff

I think nbadraft.net did something similar but broke the categories out even further, all star, star, starter, rotation, bench, out of the league, and by draft position.

just a quick thought about the subjectivity of the all star game in that is voted on by fans and coaches so it may not correlate totally with performance. Perhaps breaking it down by PER where the all star caliber player is at 20+ might be better at indicating how good these draft classes are.

Thanks for all the work though

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

I will talk about DeJuan Blair no more forever

by jonestr on Jul 10, 2009 12:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd be really interested to see that

Link?

Call Brandon Roy by his real nicknames: The Natural and Roybot. Lets put an end to "B-Roy"

by #7TheNatural on Jul 10, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I cant seem to find it

but I will keep looking

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

I will talk about DeJuan Blair no more forever

by jonestr on Jul 11, 2009 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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