My Theory

by axel360 on Jul 8, 2009 10:54 PM PDT

Since this Paul Millsap thing came out, everyone is trying to figure out what exactly is going to happen and why we are pursuing Paul Millsap. Here is my theory.

Alright, I am going to assume Utah doesn't want to keep Boozer and match a huge offer. Not in these economic times.

Ok, first of all, there is NO way Blazers have Oden, Joel, LA, and Millsap next year. There's just not enough minutes! Spending 10 million a year on a player that can only play one position, will probably play less than 15 minutes a game, and is playing behind a guy that averaged over 37 minutes a game in just his third season doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Sure, the Blazer may like him, but not enough to trade Oden, Joel, or LA to create more playing time for him. There's got to be something up.

So, here's Utah situation. They are 4 million over the luxury tax threshold without Millsap. They really like Millsap, but their current second best player plays the same position and signing Millsap would be be extremely expensive because of the luxury tax. Jazz claim they are going to match any offer, but if the offer is up there, they'd probably have to shed some salary. The most logical player is Boozer, since he also plays the same position as Millsap and has been mentioned in so many rumors. However, there is very little suitors for Millsap, driving the price down, meaning Utah could potentially hold onto Boozer and sign Millsap.

Enter Portland's offer. Utah has to match this. If they don't, they lose a very promising young player to a division rival, and Boozer leaves after next season. But if the offer is high enough, Utah would most likely have to shed some salary to match it. That salary is probably Carlos Boozer. I mean, who would want Kirilenko?

Look at the top two suitors of Boozer: Bulls and Pistons. Bulls have Hinrich and the Pistons have Prince, both players that have been connected to Portland. But trading with just the Bulls or Pistons wouldn't give them a lot of salary relief. It needs to be a three team trade. And the other team needs to have cap room. Thanks to Hedo, Portland still has cap room.

The Jazz would send Boozer to either the Bulls or Pistons. Prince or Hinrich and possibly a filler would go to Portland. Than Portland would send cap room and either Blake or Outlaw to the Jazz.

Blazers and either Pistons or Bulls get a coveted player. Jazz get the cap room to sign Millsap and a rent-a-player. It makes sense for all parties. Utah doesn't get a lot of talent, but I think they would rather have Millsap for 5 years than Boozer for a year.

If Utah doesn't match the offer due to the hefty price of the luxury tax, Blazers steal a great young player from a division rival. And even if Utah keeps Boozer and matches the offer, Blazers succeeded at driving up the pricetag. It's a win-win. This quote from a Jazz fan sums it up well: "Darned if you do, darned if you don't. If you do match, you have 'Sap at a contract he hasn't proven he deserves. If you don't, he's on a division rival and the fans want your head.." Making this offer hurts a division rival no matter what.

So, that is essentially my theory on KP's train of thought. Just a theory, but it makes some sense.

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Comments

Yes...I think you nailed it precisely

Rec. Well done.

by mlsinpdx on Jul 8, 2009 11:26 PM PDT reply actions

I would love to have either Milsap or Prince

Especially the latter. We’d have to give up TO but I came to terms with that quite some time ago

You have my axe!

by you have my axe on Jul 8, 2009 11:33 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, and plus

Worst case scenario for Portland: division rival is forced to pay 10-20 million dollars more for Millsap (over 5 years). Not bad KP, not bad at all…

by axel360 on Jul 8, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you mean we get to give up TO

by BlazerBen on Jul 9, 2009 1:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Ye of short freaking memories

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I like it but...

I say all this most respectfully. I truly enjoy all the banter and speculation because it educates us. Prince is a great player. If we got Prince I would be stoaked. But I still dont understand why we couldnt give minutes to Milsap. We have only LMA at the PF, not counting rookies b/c who knows how much they will contribute. So with only LMA at PF, and Gregs foul trouble, why wouldnt Milsap get minutes? We have one of the best 2nd units in the game-and with Milsap, our 2nd unit could take most teams first units to school. Im a big fan of Prince and what he could bring to this team, but we need an SF way less than a PF because of the SF logjam. I mean to go after Prince when we have Batum, Webster and Outlaw, doesnt make sense unless we are saying those 3 arent worthy. Anyways, I seem to be alone in this but I think Milsap makes us better and a tougher more gritty team. He already knows the situation here and said he would be happy to play behind LMA-cant ask for much more. I say that nothing will surprise me this offseason after the HEDO debacle and that your theory has just as much chance as any other. Which means it could totally happen. Its funny, the 3 players I wanted this offseason was Milsap, Prince and D.Harris. 2 of those names are being discussed. So again Im stoaked either way MILSAP or PRINCE!

by cavejunctionblazer on Jul 8, 2009 11:34 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

All KP is doing is cocking back his hand for the inevitable

Draft Cole Aldrich 2010

by jlarose78 on Jul 8, 2009 11:54 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I shudder to think of what it would cost to move up and get Cole

Not likely to happen.

by lee3022 on Jul 8, 2009 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions

I am not convinced we need Prince or Heinrich

I respect both players but do not see we gain much from either one. Some folks forget that Steve Blake was really good this year in our offense and that with a shoulder needing surgery for half of the season. Heinrich is a little better but not as good a shooter and way more expensive. I believe in Nic. As Dave wrote today Nic is our 4th member of the core. I expect him to perform this year much better on offense and wiser on defense. He seems more fluid and athletic than Prince and way cheaper.

I do like Millsap. If we offer him I expect it will be with everything we have to keep him. I believe we need this money for a PF/Center to backup both LMA and GO. Joel is in his final year this year and we can keep all four and allow GO to continue to grow. That would be my choice. If Utah matches then I think we can sign a short term big for the year and hope as well that someone hurts enough with luxury tax problems that we get our backup big through a lopsided trade.

by lee3022 on Jul 8, 2009 11:57 PM PDT reply actions

As for the theory that Millsap

can be a backup center and power forward after we trade Joel, Milllsap doesnt play center. if blazers went that route (expensive backup PF and C), they’d go for Lee. he can play center

by axel360 on Jul 9, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions

not sure the detroit option is sound

Detroit would MUCH rather give up Rip in the deal than Prince. They could try and work a deal with Sac, Mem, or most likely OKC whereby Booze goes to Det, Rip goes to OKC, filler/expirings to Utah. Not sure we would have enough leverage to insist on Prince.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 11:57 PM PDT reply actions

Speaking of OKC I read they were trying to sign Millsap

Is that still on? Do they have more ammo?

by lee3022 on Jul 8, 2009 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions

OKC wont be signing millsap

they dont want to pay the luxury tax in the future (when they have to sign durant, green, and Westbrook to extensions) that means if we done get involved, Utah could sign Millsap for very little money and keep boozer

by axel360 on Jul 9, 2009 12:12 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

assuming Detroit wants boozer

It makes more sense to give up prince than rip because boozer would start at the 4 and prince at the 3 (if they traded rip), and where does that leave their new free agent signing villanueva? He played the 4 on the bucks because they had a bunch of small forwards but he is really a 3. They probably don’t need both prince and villanueva

by axel360 on Jul 9, 2009 12:07 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

It would be nice if we were making this kind of "favor" to Memphis.

Just giving back their Miles gift.

Arrieros somos y en el camino nos encontraremos (old Spanish saying).

by amlmart1 on Jul 9, 2009 8:01 AM PDT reply actions

We call purposefully to an animal and the way we find?

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Jul 9, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions

Something like "We´re both muleteers and we´ll cross paths again".

It´s used to advice someone who frequent your personal or more likely your profesional field and has made you damage, meaning I´ll meet you again and then we´ll see what happens (announcing revenge).

by amlmart1 on Jul 9, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions

and has DONE

you damage, not made. We have to go and make it complicated by giving hacer two separate verbs in English. :-)

que opina la gente del fichaje de Sergio?

The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.

by BlazersOrBust on Jul 9, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions

I did´t know why I could make a mistake and I could´t "make" you damage with my sword when you was in Spain.

Now I put the blame on your darn language. The Quill is Mightier than the Sword, when you have ink and a good translator.

by amlmart1 on Jul 9, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions

Regarding Sergio trade...

There´s almost a consensus. Most people think he´ll have a great season.There´re exceptions, as always.

by amlmart1 on Jul 9, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Spanish language thread....go!

by T$ 225 on Jul 9, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions

I will be crawling on my knees looking for spare change

Voy a rastrear en mis rodillas, en busca de cambio de repuesto en el suelo. – Elgin

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions

for me, the most satisfying way to handle this

is by destroying them on the court. So far, so good.

by T$ 225 on Jul 9, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions

yea i have been thinking this too

if the blazers acquire milsap its mostly likely as a bargaining chip in another deal

by Yawnie on Jul 9, 2009 8:06 AM PDT reply actions

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING ABOUT THIS...

…is that Millsap happens to rhyme with Pritchslap. It makes for great fodder!

by mlsinpdx on Jul 9, 2009 8:45 AM PDT reply actions

Quick's article

Quick’s article about Millsap & KP was very strange. Obviously the bit about Roy & LA was shockingly frank, unsupported, and negative.

What really surprised me, however, was much he stomped on KP. I find it hard to believe that KP was exhibiting a defeated attitude. I also find it hard to believe that KP & the Blazers would let Quick know and write about the supposed desperation they are experiencing.

My guess is that KP wanted Quick to write this negative article to gain lots of attention and paint KP as desperate and overly aggressive. That’s why Quick emphasized this “toxic” offer KP is supposedly preparing. Does one really need to spend all this time preparing such an offer? How hard can it be? Rather, I suspect that KP and Quick are building the perception that they are a real threat to make an offer on Millsap that Utah can’t afford to match.

Why might KP want to do that? Axel360’s theory seems to be a good explanation.

by DC Blazer on Jul 9, 2009 1:24 PM PDT reply actions

Bulls site talking about POR-CHI-UTAH trade:

by axel360 on Jul 9, 2009 2:30 PM PDT reply actions

http://www.blogabull.com/2009/7/9/943697/rumor-deal-brewing-between-chi-por

by axel360 on Jul 9, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Proving their fans are just as bored and addled as ours.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 9, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I disagree with your axiom...

Ok, first of all, there is NO way Blazers have Oden, Joel, LA [sic.], and Millsap next year.

Last year, Blazers had Oden, Joel, LMA, and Channing Frye. And they dumped $9M on Darius Miles to do nothing.

Miles expires after this year. Look at Millsap as a $1M contract and an agreement to continue paying Darius for 4 more years beyond his expiration date.

They can always work a trade next year, if they need to.

I take KP at face value on this. Blazers are looking at “best player” and just adding a “special piece,” not wholesale restructuring (i.e. no new PG). Millsap could well be that guy, they spend their chips and head to war.

Joel Przybilla: “You can’t have too many bigs.”

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 9, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, we had Channing Frye.

and he played 11.8 minutes per game. and this year oden is going to average more than 21 minutes a game. thats even less minutes. we dont need four legit NBA starters at the 4/5. millsap would play less than 15 minutes a game. i get the whole insurance thing. but u dont spend that kind of money on an insurance policy. that would be like the Colts signing Tom Brady in case Manning gets injured.

by axel360 on Jul 9, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions

Frye didn't play much, because he didn't do what we needed him to do.

We needed him to rebound and be a presence in the paint. If he had, he would have played more, and LA would have rested more. Milsap does exactly those things, so count on him playing more than Frye ever did, and LA will not keep playing 38mins a game. Milsap will also play alongside LA in a big line-up. He’ll be on the floor, and whether he is over-paid for his role or not doesn’t matter, because he is not going to be paid so much that other teams won’t want to trade for him. He is a player a lot of teams, especially Utah, would love to have, and he is young, so he is worth a lot in trade, and will be for all the years of that contract if he is healthy. Trading for Hinrich with his really expensive contract is a stupid move, because he will have no trade value, as no other team will want him with such a high salary for such modest talent. If he doesn’t work better than Blake, who he is almost identical to, then we will be stuck with his contract for three years. Other teams would only want him as a back-up, and they wouldn’t pay 8-10 million for a back up PG, and neither should we. In those years that we would be stuck with his contract, we will have to resign Oden, Rudy, Batum, Bayless and possibly Joel. How much luxury tax are we looking to pay?

by wingzeta on Jul 13, 2009 1:45 AM PDT up reply actions

People are funny

We are trying to sign one of the best young power forwards in the NBA, because we have a major need for a paint crushing PF, and they are trying to brainstorm a way to turn it into a move for Kirk Hinrich, a mediocre point guard, who would not improve our team, or Prince, a good but overly similar SF to our up and coming SF Batum. The insane desire for these lateral moves is astounding. Milsap is exactly what the Blazers need to improve our physicality and interior scoring, which were our biggest weaknesses last year. We are trying to get Milsap, because we want him, because he is the best player available outside of Lamar Odom, who I assume we don’t think we can get, or would be a bad fit chemistry-wise. Like Odom, Turkoglu was on a different talent level, being a “special” player that transcends position. They went for him first, because he seemed like he would fit, and it would be a “home run” move for a guy who makes the guys around him better, and is clutch. We didn’t really need a SF, but like I said, if a “special” player comes available, you give it a shot, just like the idea of drafting the best player available at your pick, rather than the player that fits your need. It probably worked out for the best, because a player like Milsap is what we needed all along. I hope we get him.

by wingzeta on Jul 13, 2009 1:31 AM PDT reply actions