And Just Like That: A Storm
by Ben. on Jul 8, 2009 7:40 PM PDT
in News
747 comments
From Jason Quick of The Oregonian...
After a series of trades fell through this week, the Trail Blazers have settled on their next target: Utah power forward Paul Millsap.
Although Millsap is a restricted free agent, meaning the Jazz can match any offer, the Blazers are preparing what one source called a "toxic" offer designed to exterminate interest from other teams.
...
The Blazers figure to exhaust nearly all of their cap space to lock up Millsap.
Despite being a much better player, Millsap runs into the same general problems as Bass, discussed below: are there enough minutes and is he a transformational player?
The fundamental questions: Is this the guy you sink years worth of salary cap flexibility into and is he the piece you believe puts you over the top? Is he a suitable consolation prize after missing out on Turkoglu? Tough questions.
Millsap is a banger, of course, and would be a very quality addition. KP would get double bonus points for taking a quality piece from a division rival.
Kevin Pelton has written in support of Millsap's game recently but hits the money analysis in the underlined portion...
In terms of their potential to contribute over the next five seasons, Paul Millsap and David Lee are probably the two best free agents on the market. Both players were on the fringe of the All-Star discussion this year (you'll remember I gave Millsap a spot on my squad). Millsap in particular is young enough to still have room for growth, while Lee is just entering what should be a productive prime.
Alas, because both players are restricted free agents and their current employers are expected to match any offers, Lee and Millsap have been relegated to the back burner so far during free agency. Portland looks like the only team left that could make a serious run at either player, and with LaMarcus Aldridge at power forward and the duo of Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla in the middle, barring an unlikely trade it will be difficult for the Blazers to carve out enough playing time to justify paying big money to part of a four-man frontcourt rotation. That could limit Lee and Millsap to either hammering out a long-term deal to stick around with their current teams or taking the qualifying offer and trying again next year. That leverage is limited by the fact that both qualifying offers, especially Millsap's, are way below market value.
And before you get too excited, here's a recent take from Tim Buckley of the Deseret News.
As Carlos Boozer trade rumors continued to swirl Wednesday, Jazz restricted free agent Paul Millsap negotiated the first full day of the NBA's summer free-agency shopping market.
Much of the interest in Millsap is known to have come from Oklahoma City, which has enough team payroll salary cap space to sign Utah's backup power forward to an offer sheet.
For now, however, caution seems to be the name of the game.
"I think that in this economy, a lot of teams are second-guessing themselves and doing their research to make sure they're making the wise decision," said DeAngelo Simmons, Millsap's uncle and representative.
Even if Oklahoma City and Millsap agreed to terms, the Thunder would face likely competition from the Jazz - who've vowed to match any offer sheet the 2006 second-round draft choice signs with another team.
Rumors have circled that Utah might try to trade recently-signed Carlos Boozer so as to prepare themselves to keep Millsap.
Talks continue between the Pistons and Jazz about a Carlos Boozer-Rip Hamilton trade. Hamilton didn't fit with Allen Iverson this season, and he won't fit with newly acquired Ben Gordon. In fact, Gordon has become Iverson. He has no conscience when taking shots.
Although Paul Millsap's price tag originally was set by his agent at $10 million a season, the Jazz's chances of re-signing the restricted free-agent forward for the midlevel exception of $5.854 million (and possibly even less) appear to be growing.
...
"The Jazz haven't given us a number at all, and we're not trying to come to an agreement on anything because we haven't come to a number," said Simmons, who was speaking out to deny rumors that the Jazz and Millsap were close to a deal.
...
The Jazz remain committed to matching whatever offer Millsap receives, with O'Connor saying, "Our position hasn't changed." Millsap averaged 16.0 points and 10.3 rebounds in starting 38 games last season with Carlos Boozer injured.
Millsap could opt to sign the one-year $1.03 million qualifying offer the Jazz tendered him last month and return to the market as an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Jazz plan to make Millsap a fair offer, but will not overpay out of loyalty.
Also, earlier this summer, Chad Ford of ESPN ranked Millsap his #4 free agent (Hedo was #2, haha) and wrote...
With Carlos Boozer out for most of last season, Millsap proved he has the potential to be an All-Star power forward -- he is unstoppable on the boards and can put the ball in the basket. Detroit, Memphis and Oklahoma City are all potentially interested, though the Jazz will try to bring him back. But with Boozer not opting out, there's a small chance the Jazz won't be able to match another team's offer to Millsap, especially if it's a huge offer of $10 million-plus per year.
Are the Utah papers pushing Millsap out the door? Brack Rock of the Deseret News wrote on the 4th of July...
Paul Millsap is entertaining offers this week, and if he gets what he wants, the end result will be a salary that starts at $10 million. Per year, not per eon. Considering he made about $800,000 this year, that would be a 1,100 or 1,200 percent raise.
I'm all in favor of the Jazz retaining Millsap and giving him a generous bump in income. They can do that by matching any offer another team makes. The hazardous part is if someone offers him cuckoo money, say, $12 million or $14 million a year, and the Jazz buckle under the fear of having him return to haunt them. Then they're committed to a multiyear deal, at a huge price.
...
There could be worse things than losing Millsap to free agency.
Signing him to an overpriced, never-ending contract, for example.
The Jazz need look no further than their own history to remember times when, in the heat of the moment, they paid too much for a very good player. Remember Andrei Kirilenko?
Also, FYI, exclusive to Blazersedge because he loves you that much, here are Millsap's comparables from the esteemed Kevin Pelton.
Sim Season Team
Reggie King 97.5 1981 kck
Nenê Hilario 97.3 2007 den
Lonnie Shelton 97.2 1980 sea
Carlos Boozer 97.0 2006 uta
Jeff Ruland 96.8 1983 was
Drew Gooden 96.3 2006 cle
Amare Stoudemire 96.2 2007 pho
Buck Williams 95.9 1984 njn
Cliff Levingston 95.9 1985 atl
LaSalle Thompson 95.8 1985 kck
Update (9:42PM): More from Jason Quick of The Oregonian. He writes...
it appears Pritchard is preparing for perhaps his last big pitch of the summer. Sources say the Blazers are putting together what they consider a "toxic" offer to Utah's Paul Millsap
...
If the Millsap plan doesn't go through, the Blazers will go after free agent Brandon Bass, a young power forward who played for Dallas last season.
...
Nothing, absolutely nothing, has gone right for the Blazers this summer.
On Wednesday morning, Pritchard sounded weary and defeated, and refused to comment on his summer shortcomings.
Update (10:12PM): From Ric Bucher on twitter...
On Millsap/PDX: It would have to be an offer sheet, which hasn't happened. Also rumored they offered BBass same. Neither checks out so far.
Update (12:05AM): Ross Siler of the Salt Lake Tribune updated his post to read...
The Portland Trail Blazers are preparing an offer to restricted free agent forward Paul Millsap that will test the Jazz's resolve to match, according to a report Wednesday night on The Oregonian 's Web site.
...
The Jazz have committed to match whatever offer Millsap receives, but doing so could push their payroll past $80 million, leaving them to incur $10 million or more in the NBA's dollar-for-dollar luxury-tax penalties....
Should they not match, however, the Jazz would run the risk of watching Millsap leave for the Northwest Division rival Blazers, followed by Carlos Boozer's potential departure next summer as a free agent.
...
In fact, The Oregonian cited a source's description of Portland's expected offer as being "toxic." The Blazers could do everything from front-load the contract in the first two years to include a signing bonus that the Jazz would have to match.
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I don't
know where he will play….. what would the minute spread look like?
by FrenchToast on Jul 8, 2009 7:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Assuming everything stays the same it would look like this:
Power Forward
Aldrdige: 34.5
Milsap (Outlaw+Frye): 13.3
Center
Przybilla: 23.8
Oden 21.5
Aldridge: 2.5
by Nick Van Excellent on Jul 8, 2009 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frye is a free agent. Portland didn't offer him a quilifying contract.
by BBK on Jul 8, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think LMA could play a few less minutes if we got Millsap.
Let him rest a little more.
by austinpwnz on Jul 8, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
36 minutes is not a lot.
Gasol played over 40 in the playoffs just fine.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jul 9, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaMarcus Aldridge = starting PF and backup SF
Crazy talk? Here’s the scenario
Nate starts a frontcourt of Batum, LMA, Oden
Millsap replaces Batum at 6 minutes into the half
Batum (etc) replaces LMA at the 13 minute mark
LMA replaces Millsap with 5 minutes to go in the half (19:00)
LMA plays at least 18 minutes per half
MIllsap plays at least 13 minutes per half
Batum (or a combination of Roy? Webster?) plays up to 17 minutes per half
(total = 48 total minutes for the 3-4 positions, per half)
More minutes could be available for Millsap if both of the centers get into early foul trouble, OT, etc
Why would Portland do it?
“I don’t think they operate like everyone else, where they have to fit everyone into a hole,” Bartelstein said of the Blazers. “They work to acquire great, young players and they make it work. And that’s what I think they are doing, trying to get the best players they can. And if (Pritchard) has an over-abundance of bigs? That’s a good position to be in in the NBA.”
http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/07/blazers_next_move_is_a_mystery.html
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you have to commit to some minutes at 3 for Brandon Roy
as long as Rudy Fernandez remains on the roster. If they are not on the court at the same time for at least a few minutes per half, they both get short-sheeted on minutes. – Elgin
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this would likey mean a trade involving Joel.
by 1003100free on Jul 8, 2009 7:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
because this would mean our backup center would either be Aldridge (our starting PF) or Millsap (who stands 6’9").
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully non of that materializes and he becomes trade material.
Darius Miles Tribute Vid
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
by Net Ranger on Jul 8, 2009 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The way I see it...
Oden gets two quick fouls and we can play small ball with Aldridge at the 5 and Millsap at the 4. I think a 3 man rotation works for the 4/5. Just to be precautious we’d have to sign a center (cheap one) to just throw out there in case Oden and Aldridge/Millsap get into foul trouble.
by 1003100free on Jul 8, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In order for your plan to work
Oden has to largely fail as a player and Aldridge needs to play both starting 4 and backup 5. Can’t say that I like it.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really
Oden starts, plays 32 minutes
Aldridge plays 16 mins at the 5, and 16 mins at the 4
Millsap plays 32 mins at the 4, 16 with LMA and 16 with Greg.
depths sucks of course, in case of fouls and more importantly injury, so we’d have to go snag an emergency center (figure Pendergraph can handle emergency 4 duty)
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
What happens those nights that Oden only plays 15 minutes due to foul trouble? And even so, 32 minutes isn’t enough for Aldridge. He needs 36-38.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if oden is only playing 15, then ’graph and the emergency center pick up 5-6 mins each, and LMA and Millsap play 40 each.
i was just using 32 as a round number to illustrate the point. LMA will more likely be getting 36, while millsap and oden are each aroudn 30
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think LMA would mind a bit playing 32
Gives all players more rest for the playoffs & with a dominant frontcourt we are blowing all the lottery teams out. No one minds sitting out garbage time.
by We-B-Dunkin on Jul 8, 2009 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No he doesn't
We’re a playoff team now. Aldridge needs to save it for the post season. That’s why many feel its important we pick up a competent backup for him.
by Bskey on Jul 9, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know about that.
LA played the whole season with only three legit bigs. Same with Boston, Denver, Orlando, Cleveland, Houston, Dallas. Pretty much all the playoff teams I can think of had a primary front court rotation of three players.
I’m guessing there’s a 95% chance that either Aldridge or Joel (probably Joel) get traded if we sign Milsap. It would be a poor use of our assets to have so many guys at those two spots especially with with such a glaring hole at PG. Pendergraph and Batum can both fill in for spot minutes behind Aldridge anyway. It’s not like we would be incredibly thin without Pryzbilla.
It’s possible we could send Joel somewhere he wants to go as a sort of, thank you for sticking around, gesture. Do the Timberwolves have anyone we might want? Rubio maybe?
by Nick Van Excellent on Jul 9, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's my take
We still need a backup C until Oden proves himself. A legit backup C who can play 20-30 mpg if need be. This is Joel Przybilla (who is actually a legit starting C but whatever).
Przybilla has 1 year + 1 year player option on his contract, correct? And it was rumored he’s planning to opt out of his option. But this next year we absolutely need Joel Przybilla to cover for Greg Oden. Hopefully he sticks around the year after that too. But I think we can’t count on GO as much as we’d like, and once Przybilla’s contract is up then we don’t have a “logjam” at PF/C anymore.
Plus Joel is just a great player. Take a look at this:
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/04/12/an-award-for-joel-przybilla/
by austinpwnz on Jul 9, 2009 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know about Joel.
You don’t have to convince me of his greatness, but he’s most likely gone in two years or less. He’s a legit starting center and his fate was sealed the moment we drafted Oden.
Plus he’s missed about 40% of all games with an injury. This last year was something of an anomaly. There’s no way the Blazers sign a 32 year old injury prone center to a large contract. Not going to happen.
They are probably better off trading him while he’s healthy and coming off a career season, and signing Milsap pretty much confirms this.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jul 9, 2009 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd just rather have him as long as possible
To teach/practice with/back up/insure Greg Oden. I see what you’re saying, but I still hope he stays. If GO has a great year, then I’ll be okay with trading him at the deadline if the returns are good.
I shall be rooting for his continued presence even as I hope for Millsap to come here.
by austinpwnz on Jul 9, 2009 2:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there's a good chance....
that he’s around until the trade deadline. That should give the Blazers enough time to see what the deal with Oden is.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jul 9, 2009 3:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pryz's trade value is high now, but will decline quickly
I get your point about wanting to keep Pryz to the end of his career. It is a huge asset to have two legit centers, however if Joel opts out next summer, we are likely to get nothing in return.
It may make sense to trade him this summer if we can get a legit back-up or if we get a montser PF who would allow LMA to be more effective as a back-up C.
by upper left corner on Jul 9, 2009 5:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joel has been very healthy the last two years.
- He played all 82 games last season plus the playoff games.
- He only missed eight games the previous season due to breaking his hand.
- His worst season was when he got kicked in the nuts, which would ruin anyone’s year.
Joel should have a long career. He’s averaged only 20.6 minutes per game for his career, so he’s hardly getting worn-out.
When Joel’s contract comes up for renewal, I’ll bet he’d take less to stay with the Blazers.
He’s the ultimate team player and will be okay with backing-up G.O. until he retires.
I love Joel and want to see his jersey hanging from the Rose Garden rafters.
by MiledAnimal on Jul 9, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is called small ball
with an almost 7 foot tall dude at center?
by FrenchToast on Jul 8, 2009 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
LMA isn't what you'd call a physical PF
I’d be worried about him getting pushed around if he tried to play too much center.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
check 82games.com
LMA isn’t too hot at center, especially on defense.
by austinpwnz on Jul 8, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're already assuming Oden's major foul problems
will continue this season? Way to be positive.
by GregOden15ppg on Jul 8, 2009 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't have to at all
The Blazers could just offer Milsap a 5/50 deal and let the Jazz try to match. We don’t need to send the Jazz anything.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Free meant...
That picking up Millsap means we’re going to trade Joel, not that we’d have to trade Joel to get Millsap.
Rex is a starter by the 2010 trade deadline. Watch.
by dan_the_man on Jul 8, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh
I don’t think we’d trade Joel unless we’re really confident about Oden’s development. I don’t see how we could trade Joel unless we’re ready to play Greg 35-40 minutes a game (with LMA at the 5 and Milsap at the 4 while Greg rests).
Small-ball lineups are fun and exciting and win in the regular season but get seriously shut down in the playoffs.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pryz is a nice trade chip
If we sign Milsap to big money, we should trade Joel for a nice 1 (Hinrich) and sign a cheap backup 5 for emergency situations.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Outlaw.
It might be a possibility that Martell is still questionable and Travis will be needed to back Batuum.
It was discussed in prior blogs of trading Joel to Houston, but that isn’t as likely now unless we trade for one of their pt guards. TEE HEE.
hg
by BBK on Jul 8, 2009 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really doubt we get Millsap
It makes no sense. We’d pay $8 million for a guy who would play less than 20 minutes a night, unless we significantly cut minutes designated for our other posts.
Also, like just about every other FA deal we are looking at, this would spell the end of the Travis Outlaw era.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 7:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
this would spell the end of the Travis Outlaw era
you say that like it’s a “bad” thing
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me too, but I'm resigning myself. I want him to play somewhere he loves
and is loved. Unfortunately, at least the second half of that wish doesn’t seem likely to happen in Portland.
"Aneurysm".
When Outlaw wins a game on a last-second shot, it’s called an "annthefaneurysm". QualityPie
by annthefan on Jul 8, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you love a little bird, let it fly away
Keep Travis in Portland and he’ll get less “happy” as his minutes are reduced
it’s time to cut the cord
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gag me. :)
"Aneurysm".
When Outlaw wins a game on a last-second shot, it’s called an "annthefaneurysm". QualityPie
by annthefan on Jul 8, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if Roy isn't signing his contract
until he knows whether Travis will still be a Blazer.
by MiledAnimal on Jul 8, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Travis pretty much knows that he’s on the outs. He even joked about being traded for Turkoglu. I’m sure Roy has figured this out as well.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i got the impressions roy was pretty much told
and was ok with it
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt that Travis’ situation with the Blazers would be a big enough influence to sway Roy from signing with this team. They’re best friends, but Brandon must know that it’s only a business.
EAT IT GOOD.
by L-TrainFTW! on Jul 8, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
besides, Roy wants to sign for five, the Blazers want four.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s according to Jason Quick.
EAT IT GOOD.
by L-TrainFTW! on Jul 8, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
KP and Brandon already went over "that" when they made the offer to Hedo
and clearly Roy “signed off” on the prospect of Outlaw not being back
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Roy isn't signing b/c the Blazers are nickle & diming him.
That’s one point I agree with Quick on.
When the last round of super stars (LBJ, Wade, Bosh, etc.) re-upped after their rookie contracts, the big thing was to push for 4 year contracts so they could really capitalize down the road (2010). Their teams were wise enough to want to lock them up for as long as possible.
It strikes me as odd that the Blazers are only offering 4 years. Flexibility is good, but Brandon does everything the team asks of him. He deserves 5 years. Give it to him KP.
by DC Blazer on Jul 9, 2009 6:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's weird to me
that Travis isn’t more appreciated. He’s an excellent spark of the bench, versatile, and is one of three (Roy and Bayless being the others) players on this team who can consistently create scoring chances for themselves. If you expected Travis to be a Tashaun Prince clone, then I understand the disappointment in his progress, but I think when (and at this point it’s when, not if) he leaves, absence will make some hearts grow fonder.
Team Bayless - The takeover begins in 2009
by blazeraddict on Jul 8, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice kid
but Outlaw is not a forward who’s going to be a part of a championship rotation
Unless Travis gets lucky (like Morrison) and gets traded to a perfect situation
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Consistency
Or rather the lack of it, has been his downfall.
I’m grateful for what he’s done, but it’s time to go.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 8, 2009 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Travis
I’ve met the kid, he’s incredibly nice and I have always loved having him on the team, but at this point all signs seem to point to him getting traded, and in the end I know it’s a business and I’m confident the move that ships him out will make us better. I just hope he can go somewhere that he can really excel.
I wanna be Brandon Roy when I grow up!
by dagraffman on Jul 9, 2009 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's my nightmare
that he gets traded to some Western Conference team and goes for 25 and 12 every time he plays the Blazers, laughing at Pritchard and Paul Allen every time he approaches that end of the floor. – Elgin
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no respect for players who do that.
If they’d played at a consistently high level for their first team they’d still be there.
by MiledAnimal on Jul 9, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
seriously
just the fact that it would mean that Outlaw is leaving is a bonus. and Millsap would get more than 20 min. a game cuz he would play some sf as well, after we unclog that position with a trade for an upgrade at pg.
by GregOden15ppg on Jul 8, 2009 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
its just sad
he stuck thru all the crap and the moment we get into contention he has to go….
by FrenchToast on Jul 8, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he'll be happier
if he can play in a more free-flowing situation where there’s less structure and defense is an afterthought
New Jersey, for example (for Keyon Dooling, their salaries match)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He could be a poor man's Marion offensively
circa 7 seconds or less if D’Antoni ever got him in New York.
Team Bayless - The takeover begins in 2009
by blazeraddict on Jul 9, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, believe me, I wouldn't mind seeing him go
so long as we got value in return. I’m no big fan of Outlaw.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Feels like a no lose exercise.
Force the salary back on a rival or pick up an excellent piece to further facilitate an upgrade trade.
Bedge or go home.
by Ojala John on Jul 8, 2009 7:45 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
bingo!
Utah matches, we force their hand on Boozer trade
they don’t, we have a very attractive player who has a ton of trade value
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chug!.........Chug!..........Chug!............
Chug
Darius Miles Tribute Vid
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
by Net Ranger on Jul 8, 2009 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why force a Boozer trade?
I fail to see why we would want to foce a Boozer trade. It’s not clear to me that the Jazz are any worse off trading him for say, a SG or SF.
by DC Blazer on Jul 9, 2009 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's my basic take also
Millsap is very good. He was even playing better than LMA when he was starting (though I think LMA has much more potential to be a better player, a more versatile player, than Millsap— but Millsap averaged 16/10 as a starter and averaged over 3 offensive rebounds a game. He is very good).
We get a very good player for further big man depth who is the right age, and a fair price for his talent level, or we force Utah to pay much more than they can afford for a guy who is a backup at this moment to Boozer. It also lowers the value of Boozer since everyone knows Utah can’t afford ’em both.
I’d love to get Millsap and worry about the minutes later.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Jul 8, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yessir, but there has to be another trade coming right? we need to still figure out the SF position and the PG position
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jul 8, 2009 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you will find plenty of debat on just how much we need to figure out the SF position
from myself included. I have NO problem rolling into the season with Batum and Martell (assuming he’s healthy). PG, now that’s another story
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am fine with our SFs as well
I would like to upgrade the PG spot, and I want Outlaw to go somewhere he can get good minutes and earn a nice contract.
M.
by Mortimer on Jul 8, 2009 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
use Przybilla and Outlaw, bada bing a point guard.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two problems with this
1. Your trading Big for small and you would still need to with sign a FA or get a scrub to back up the three bigs
2. You remove one log jam at SF and create another at PG, who sits, Blake or Bayless…I don’t think KP is interested in putting off Bayless’ development another year
I would foresee holding onto all bigs and watching KP waiting till trade deadline and seeing if he can pick up a key piece with either Blake/Outlaw/Pryz/Martell or some combo thereof
by Matt Daddy on Jul 8, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we’re not trading a big for a small, we’re trading Przybilla for Millsap and a small.
Blake would be part of any potential deal.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see KP trading Blake
I could see Outlaw for a 3rd wheel PG, but I think he has more value comboed with Przy nearer the trade deadline for a bigger name (i.e. Gerald Wallace)
Remember Pryz and Outlaw both have potential contracts that won’t carry into next year and a team that may be struggling could look to free some cap space and give us an extra playoff punch
by Matt Daddy on Jul 8, 2009 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Przy is a rugged playoff performer
why would KP trade away his toughest player? The goal is to add them
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he just added Milsap who is tough.
Pendergraph is also pretty tough. Seems like the sort of player you could use for 5-10 minutes a game and feel comfortable with.
Nobody has that many bigs. It’s just not a good use of your assets. Here’s a mostly accurate list of the salaries for center rotations. Some of the numbers are from last year and some of the numbers are probably off.
Playoff contenders in the West
Oden/Pryzbilla- 5.3/6.8
Dampier/Gortat-10.1/5.5
Bonner/Blair-3.2/0.8
Hayes/Dorsey- 1.7/0.8
Bynum/Mbenga- 12.5/0.95
Chandler/Armstrong 11.8/ 2.8
Okur/Collins 9.0/2.0
Staudimire/Lopez- 15.5/1.7
Hilario/Anderson-10.5/1.0
Look how small all those backup centers are. Joel would be the most expensive backup center by far and complete overkill as far as I can tell. Most teams prefer to run with one true center and two 4/5’s. It just makes more sense from a minutes standpoint.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jul 9, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Lakers are long, and they are the wall that Portland needs to climb over
length > strength
Bring in Millsap and push out Joel and KP is cutting off his nose to spite his face
it is not necessary
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 9, 2009 12:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the 4 man rotation at PF/C for top teams next year
Mostly from production stats from 82games to determine the top 4
rotation
L*kers – Bynum/ Gasol/ Odom/ Powell – 12.5/ 16.4/ app 10/ .9
Magic – Howard/ Lewis/ Gortat/ R. Anderson – 15.2/ 18.1/ app 5.7/ 1.3
Nugs – Martin/ Nene/ Anderson/ Balkman – 15.6/ 10.5/ 3.7/ 2.1
Cavs – Shaq/ Ilgauskus/ Varejao/ James – 21/ 11.5/ app 8 / 15.7
Spurs – Bonner/ Duncan/ Blair/ Someone – 3.2/ 22.1/ 1/ .8
Jazz – Millsap/ Boozer/ Okur/ Kirelinko – app 8/ 12.3/ 9/ 16.4
Mavs – Nowitzki/ Dampier/ Bass/ Singleton – 19.8/ 12.1/ 5.7/ .8
Blazers – Przy/ Oden/ Aldridge/ Millsap – 6.8/ 5.3/ 5.8/ 8
Przy is worth every penny we are paying him next year at 6.85 mil. The Blazers are at or far under the cost of every other team. Remember how Oden would tear up other teams when he came in last year? That’s why you want two centers. We’ll have 12 mil locked up in Oden and Przy next year versus almost 12 mil at least for the starter at center of the other team. I don’t see how you can argue that Joel is overpaid in relation to the frontcourt costs of other teams.
And I’d say for SA their center is Duncan/ Someone and L*kers is Bynum/ Gasol and Utah is Okur/ Boozer
These lineups are for approximation only, as I realize that Millsap can’t be on two teams and Bass, Gortat and other stuff might change.
by KitIsh on Jul 9, 2009 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t Powell gone? All of those teams have a 3 man rotation for their front line. Some of them don’t even have a true center. They do all have legit starting point guards though (-Lakers).
The Lakers have a three man rotation.
The Magic have a thin three man rotation. (Gortat is gone)
The Nuggets have a three man rotation.
The Cavs have a three man rotation. James is a wing.
The Spurs have a three man rotation that includes a rookie.
The Jazz will have a three man rotation very soon.
The Mavs have a three man rotation. (Singleton =<5mpg)
by Nick Van Excellent on Jul 9, 2009 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can say the Lakers have a 3 man rotation of bigs, and that's true...
But they also have FIVE bigs in the cupboard, including Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga.
Last year Bynum went down with a knee injury for a long time and trust me, the depth was critical to the team’s success.
There is nothing wrong with depth, although in the playoffs core groups tighten up dramatically and the best core wins.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Jul 9, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Outlaw
to the Nets for Keyon Dooling, another 40% 3 pt shooter, provides insurance in case of injury to Blake/Bayless
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, there HAS to be a trade coming
Prolly before the season starters.
And it looks like Outlaw is the odd man out. I mean, ya get a REAL back up PF in Millsap, Outlaw has no role. That’s not fair to Outlaw in a contract year, and we shouldn’t force feed him minutes at the SF if Batum and Webster are here.
Getting Millsap means we are doing a trade, somehow, somewhere, someday.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Jul 8, 2009 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is a SF rotation of Nic and Webster coming back from injury with Roy and maybe Cunningham sliding over to help enough in Nate's mind?
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
by Norsktroll on Jul 9, 2009 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget LMA in that SF rotation
Nate could play LMA / Millsap / C at the 3-4-5 against the opposing team’s bench and wreak some havoc in the middle of each half
Put Bayless-Rudy-LMA out there at the 1-2-3 and you still can run, when it’s there
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 9, 2009 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It works like Houston playing LA without Yao and Mutombo worked
Good as an emergency situation and to beat on some centers of the league (e.g. I could imagine him being able to effectively play Al Jefferson), not someone you want to have has your default backup center (see Joel discussion) over a prolonged period of time.
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
by Norsktroll on Jul 9, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While I like Milsap more than Lee
I’m not a big fan of signing a young starting PF to play backup behind LMA.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 7:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
sooo true.
Darius Miles Tribute Vid
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
by Net Ranger on Jul 8, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
why?
would you prefer an old crappy one?
It's = It Is
Its = Belongs to It
by 12sharks on Jul 8, 2009 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think its a great value for the money
I’m just a little worried about concentrating so much salary in one position. After thinking about it more, though, I’m getting more comfortable with the idea. If we’re only going to be able to one free agent with our cap space then I think Milsap is probably the best of the bunch. If we can work him into the roster so that he gets 20-30 minutes a game, then I think we should be ok.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is better value than paying $9M to Darius Miles, is it not?
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
they will still be paying Darius, Milsap or not.
by bad karma on Jul 8, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still, worry about THAT wasted money if you are concerned about wasted cash...
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Jul 9, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Square peg
round pinwheel.
This guy was a near all star, but he’s a “4” and only a “4”. That can’t work, especially since Rudy is a “2” and only a “2”. That’s just PT constipation.
Love his game though.
by The Penguin on Jul 8, 2009 7:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
hes only a 4
if his coach makes him a 4
by FrenchToast on Jul 8, 2009 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
I don’t see why he couldn’t also run the point, right?
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's too big and slow to play SF
and too short and not good enough on defense to play center. Millsap is a 4, through and through.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He played some 5 last year
Pretty effectively too. His PER at 5 was a hair higher than at 4 (20.7 vs. 20.9). http://www.82games.com/0809/08UTA10.HTM
by DC Blazer on Jul 9, 2009 7:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
PER is the bogus creation of a journalist. It is a pseudo-stat.
Centers ALWAYS get more rebounds than PFs and are in position for more tips and putbacks.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Jul 9, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We can get Millsap and then trade him
he’d be a HUGE asset if he was locked into a decent contract.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Jul 8, 2009 7:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
thats what i'm wondering
a flurry of failed trades, but maybe there is a sign and trade possibility with millsap? is it possible that another team can’t afford to offer him an unmatchable contract (for Utah to take him back) so we need to offer him the bigger deal, and then the team that really wants him has the space to fit him in after a trade? Maybe it doesn’t work like that anyway, but that was the first thought I had.
by pdxlifer on Jul 8, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boozer trade with Chicago
storyteller floated the idea yesterday, then a few of us threw out some variations. Here’s mine
KP could sign Millsap, Utah would match and then Portland would use their capspace to help the Bulls and the Jazz flip Boozer to Chi-town and Hinrich to Portland
But I wouldn’t mind it if the Jazz don’t match and KP deals Outlaw for a reserve PG, like Keyon Dooling
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like how you think
that Chi-Utah-Portland deal could work out. All the way around, offering Millsap is a win, because we’re either locking up a good player at the expense of a division rival or hurting said rival by putting them in luxury tax jail.
Team Bayless - The takeover begins in 2009
by blazeraddict on Jul 8, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like how you think. We need a PF, not a second copy of Blake.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We might have 4
LMA, Pendergraph, the other 2nd-rounder (more of a 3-4) and Trout (also more of a 3-4).
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trout is a PF only in Nate's delusions; Cunningham is another Small Forward listed as a combined forward...
PENDERGRAPH is a true 4.
Is he ready for prime time?
If he is not and KP doesn’t come up with Bass or Millsap or Lee, there will be hell to pay…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Jul 9, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Boozer-Hinrich deal happens
and I’m not saying that it will…
KP would still have Outlaw to pursue a PF, and there are at least 10 decent ones who have a salary that’s in Travis’ range (3.6 mil) Landry, Hayes, Thomas, etc
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
but if Utah matches, Millsap is off the table. Either way, Hinrich +Bass or Millsapp = better than Hedo. While I’m much higher on Hinrich than you are, my point was the mere act of offering Millsap opens a lot of doors for the Blazers.
Team Bayless - The takeover begins in 2009
by blazeraddict on Jul 8, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Offer a 4 year deal, with 80% of the money in the first year. Match THAT Utah!
(i am kidding. don’t freak)
...refusing Coolio's sloppy seconds since 2001...
by TheTinfoil on Jul 8, 2009 7:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
unpossible!
maximum annual raises are 8%
/freak
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what about annual decrease? any rule on that.. say sign him for 10 mil this year, then 8 then 6 then 4
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jul 8, 2009 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
first year has to fit in our cap space. that’s the cap criteria – first year salary
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I'm not sure about that
I’d just be worried that we wouldn’t be able to start at a high enough to lure him away from Utah.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
G.O.R. -
Yes, the restriction is that the annual decrease can only be the same as the amount of the potential annual increase (8% of the first year’s salary).
So if his first year was $10 million, the second year could go as low as $9.2 million, the third year as low as $8.4 million, etc.
by Storyteller on Jul 8, 2009 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course, I use $10 million
as an ‘easy’ example in terms of calculation. The first year, as things sit now, could not be higher than $9 million unless Portland renounces Claver as well as Freeland and Koponen.
by Storyteller on Jul 8, 2009 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sign Milsap. Best Player Available. Fills a need for the backup PF.
Offer a front loaded incentive laden deescalating contract. An attractive tradeable asset in the future if it came down to it.
"I'm at the thingamajig talking the yakety-yak" - Kenny Smith
by blzrfan on Jul 8, 2009 7:51 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yes Please
http://www.wagesofwins.com/Jazz600809.html
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune
by Muad'Dib on Jul 8, 2009 7:53 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Milsap is a rebounding machine
WoW weights rebounding very highly. Seems like a great player:
PER 18.6
13% ORB, 21% DRB
16 pts, 10 rb per 36 minutes
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course
rebounds are extra possessions for your team and less possessions for your opponent. That’s why the blazers are so good, we were one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA last season. PER is a terrible metric because it overvalues scoring. You can increase your PER if you shoot 30% on twos just by taking more shots. Hardly anyone shoots under 30% on twos, so essentially you can increase your PER just by taking shots. And PER tells very little about a team’s wins. It is only correlated well with how good a player is perceived as being and how much money a player is paid. Not to mention that it’s virtually indistinguishable from NBA Efficiency despite being incredibly more complex. It’s just an awful way of telling how good a player is.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune
by Muad'Dib on Jul 8, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
can we avoid the metric pissing contest?
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Jul 8, 2009 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you want to be uninformed? Yes.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune
by Muad'Dib on Jul 8, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You must be a blast at parties.
There are no perfect basketball metrics. There are no worthless basketball metrics.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might want to read TominHawaii's basketball metrics before committing to the former.
μὴ φοβοῦ, μόνον πίστευε.
by T Darkstar on Jul 8, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Millsap would help us in that regard.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not familiar with TominHawaii, but a google of "tominhawaii basketball metric" lead me to this:
Welcome to Baseball Prospectus’ Thursday April 09, 2009 1:00 PM ET chat session with Kevin Pelton.
tominhawaii (Honolulu): I think advanced stats are destroying half the fun of being a fan. I can’t say a player made a clutch shot or a is a good fit for a team without a “stathead” telling me I’m wrong and using a new stat to “prove” his point. Do you think there will be new stats to account for team chemistry, player roles, and other intangibles, or a compromise between stats and intangibles, or an apocalyptic future where stats become the only word in all conversations?
Kevin Pelton: Anyone who thinks the numbers truly prove points in basketball is not a true APBRmetrician. To paraphrase the great Bill James, the numbers suggest more than they prove. I agree that the zealots can make things less fun, but the great thing about basketball statistics is most of the time there is plenty of room for interpretation.
That said, when there are numbers easily available that do paint a pretty clear picture one way or the other, to be upset when they contradict your personal opinion is to be cutting off a chance to improve your understanding of the game. I don’t think that’s especially fun.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Introduced last year.
Will take the Basketball world be storm.
He explains it himself better here.
μὴ φοβοῦ, μόνον πίστευε.
by T Darkstar on Jul 8, 2009 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, I am mistaken
There is a perfect basketball metric. Thanks for opening up my eyes T Darkstar.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The odd thing is that it worked better than Hollinger's playoff predictor
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
by Norsktroll on Jul 9, 2009 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good comeback.
I give you facts. You give me generalized statements.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune
by Muad'Dib on Jul 8, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ha
look dude, I’ve taken several statistics classes during my undergrad, I’m a basketball geek, I read all the stats sites, even ones that I’m not a fan of. Pelton, Hollinger, Berri, Ma, Kubatko, Roland Beech, etc. When I open my second set of basketball tabs, 26 tabs pop up, most of which are APBRmetrics.
I am not uniformed. Each of the metrics offer something different. I have my preferences.
Ninjasocks said it well: “There are no perfect basketball metrics. There are no worthless basketball metrics.”
All that said, to quote men wiser than I:
Before I had studied Zen for thirty years, I saw
mountains as mountains, and waters as waters. When I
arrived at a more intimate knowledge, I came to the
point where I saw that mountains are not mountains,
and waters are not waters. But now I have got its very
substance I am at rest. For it’s just that I see
mountains once again as mountains and waters once
again as waters.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Jul 8, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you Phil Jackson.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune
by Muad'Dib on Jul 8, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are no perfect basketball metrics.
There are, however, quantifiably better basketball metrics.
by austinpwnz on Jul 8, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
consider points for, and points against
Occam’s razor, baby
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 8, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Occam's razor was whatever is simplest and does the same job at explaining something is better.
Hence, NBA Efficiency is superior to PER.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune
by Muad'Dib on Jul 8, 2009 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
simpler than that....outscore your opponent
nothing is better at describing wins and losses
by blacknoiseNW on Jul 8, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did Hollinger run over your dog or something?
No need to be condescending because somebody likes PER more than you do.
The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.
by BlazersOrBust on Jul 9, 2009 5:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need to take up pitchforks and drive off PER from the village — it is completely garbage, pseudomathematization.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Jul 9, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
points for:
statistical correlation between wins predicted and actual wins.
points against:
people don’t like being told when they are wrong.
by austinpwnz on Jul 8, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Becaused this is not a settled field
only a nuanced view can appreciate each metric properly.
This is not a black and white settled issue. Metrics have underlying theories, underlying assumptions, inherent flaws. Because of the myriad of variables in basketball (pace, scheme, coaching style, individual talent, team execution, opposing defense, heart, etc etc) we will probably never come up with a single number that perfectly describes a player and what he brings to the table. Basketball is too complex for that. However, a single all-encompassing statistic is of limited value in any case. Situational statistics are far more useful.
Using situation statistics I can tell if a player is likely to be a good fit for a given system or scheme. For instance, Oden operates best off the left block .700+ fg% on the left block. Because of this factor, when we look at PG’s and SF’s, a good indication of how well they might fit is how well they shoot the three from the left corner. That way, Oden has someone to pass to out of a double team.
While I like Gerald Wallace, he only shot 30% on corner 3’s last year. Oden parked on the left block + the double team = not much room to drive. Therefore, if we were to get Gerald Wallace, he would be best served parked on the right corner and driving along the baseline of the swing pass OR making cuts to the rim from the right half of the half-court.
In this scenario, it would be important that whatever PG we get be a good shooter from the left corner.
In this case, situational statistics help explain how a player with a lower PER/Winscore/whatever, may indeed be a better fit and help you win more games because of a situational ability.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Jul 9, 2009 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Little tidbit: Millsap's agent only has him and Nikoloz Tskitishvili as clients
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
by Norsktroll on Jul 8, 2009 7:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
so he's used to small contracts...this could work!
...refusing Coolio's sloppy seconds since 2001...
by TheTinfoil on Jul 8, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plural?
I think that sig should read “Coolio’s sloppy second”
A three-pointer is not a "triple." A triple is a hit in baseball.
A three-pointer is not a "trey." A trey is either an ESPN sportscaster or something that bad spellers eat cafeteria food on. - Dave on Mar 20, 2009 10:00 PM PDT
by GustyJ on Jul 8, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
somebody just hit a walk off homerun
...refusing Coolio's sloppy seconds since 2001...
by TheTinfoil on Jul 8, 2009 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right... me!
A three-pointer is not a "triple." A triple is a hit in baseball.
A three-pointer is not a "trey." A trey is either an ESPN sportscaster or something that bad spellers eat cafeteria food on. - Dave on Mar 20, 2009 10:00 PM PDT
by GustyJ on Jul 8, 2009 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can't say mean things on the Bedge. I will ruin you in person, though, just you wait.
...refusing Coolio's sloppy seconds since 2001...
by TheTinfoil on Jul 8, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
I have that Buddy Christ figurine on my desk in my office.
Provides hours of fun for nickels a game!
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 8, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's funny
I rememeber Skita Time demanding a guaranteed contract when we invited him to camp a few years ago. The agent musta’ thought that was a good idea.
M—
by Mortimer on Jul 8, 2009 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely!
I like this move WAY better than Turk and you now have a lot more trade scenarios at the deadline!
by PHXBlazerFan on Jul 8, 2009 7:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This could be a move to force Utah's hand where we win either way. We get Millsap OR we get other pieces we are targeting even if they match his deal
They were hoping to sign Millsap this year for the QO and then re-sign him next year as a UFA (but they would have had his Bird rights and Boozer/Kirilenko off the books). If they don’t match we end up with Millsap.
If, on the other hand, they do match, they will be highly motivated to move Boozer for nothing. We could turn Boozer’s salary dump it into a 3-way deal with Chicago (assuming the Bulls might want Boozer, not sure they do). We end up with Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas??? That would be my dream… maybe optimistic but not impossible. That wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize if Millsap’s offer is matched by Utah.
by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 7:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like this logic
Seems like there is probably an advantage for the Blazers even if Utah matches. Not sure if Hinrich is my favorite scenario, but you have to figure KP and Penn have thought about the fact that Utah is likely to want to match and what it might mean for the Blazers after those cards are played.
by grigs on Jul 8, 2009 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
assuming the Bulls might want Boozer, not sure they do
They do. The Bulls have been looking for a low-post scorer…for years
Ric Bucher reported that yesterday Utah and Chicago were talking about a Boozer deal, but that they would need a 3rd team to help with salaries…
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bucher reported it so now we know that they do?
I’ve heard the rumors. That is why I posted what I did. It makes sense. Does that mean I know the Bulls do this? NO! They have needed a scoring big for several seasons now. If the Jazz match, they have to have a deal to move Boozer it would seem. I think we can get Thomas out of the deal. Seems like most are just hoping to get Hinrich out of the deal. We send Blake to Chicago and Outlaw to Utah, Utah sends Boozer to Chicago and gets Outlaw and cap space to retain PM, Bulls send us Hinrich and Thomas.
We were supposedly going to send Blake/Outlaw for Hinrich anyway. This sweetens the deal for the Bulls. They simply get Boozer while giving up Thomas. We answer our needs at PG and backup PF.
I’m equally happy if we land Millsap and then perhaps attempt to trade JP in a package for a starting PG or SF. We win either way!
by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We were supposedly going to send Blake/Outlaw for Hinrich anyway
This is a Blazersedge proposal, repeated daily for 12 months. There is zero evidence that the Bulls have any interest in Steve/Travis, outside of (maybe) their expiring contracts
They do (and should) have interest in a low post scorer, like Boozer.
I like the idea of Hinrich and Blake. I’m not as interested in acquiring Thomas
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I strongly dislike Hinrich and Blake. Who creates offense with Blake/Rudy/Martell/bigs?
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about calling a play and executing it well?
Like…Rudy and Martell coming off curls, and Blake delivering the ball to them on time?
It worked for Jack Ramsay.
And for Martell to the tune of 24 points in a quarter.
And for Rudy, last year
Pick and rolls and ISOs aren’t the only way to put the ball in the basket
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but someone needs to dribble penetrate in a lineup to make it effective in the high-low zone offense.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you should welcome a zone
when Blake, Rudy and Martell are on the floor together. They’ll shoot you right out of that zone and back into a man-to-man, in no time
KP and Nate like high% shooters. I like watching penetrators, too, but not guy like Miller or Sessions who doesn’t need to be guarded farther than 10’ away from the basket
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 9, 2009 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cablinasian said "zone offense"
I think you’re referring to a zone defense.
by austinpwnz on Jul 9, 2009 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you use a zone offense
when facing a zone defense, it amounts to the same
two articles I’ve read in the last week or so lead me to believe that
1) the Blazers are not targeting a PG upgrade
2) when KP/Nate acquire players, they tend to look for shooters. (Especially 3 point shooters from the G-SF positions)
If KP acquires Millsap and immediatley deals Joel or LMA I’ll admit that I misread his intentions. But if Nate works LMA into the SF rotaton on a semi-regular basis I’ll just smile knowingly
(Remember, Hedo was 6’10…no, LMA doesn’t have Turk’s handles but then, he won’t need to)
length+shooting > PG upgrade…that’s how I’m seeing it transpire
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 9, 2009 1:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry, I missed that inference
Anyway, I agree. The front office trusts Blake and wants to see what Bayless can do.
Also they are in love with lots of length, so LMA in spot minutes at SF could happen.
by austinpwnz on Jul 9, 2009 2:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and don't tell me you'll be happy if JP is traded
Przy is the backbone of the team’s defense, you don’t “replace” that with LMA playing center
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m so sick of seeing Joel running isos during crunch time.
Inconsistency should not be someone’s bailiwick. We need more BBIQ, not less.
It's = It Is
Its = Belongs to It
by 12sharks on Jul 8, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, what?
Keep in mind that everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazers Edge.
by pualo on Jul 9, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There have been proponents of a Przy for Battier trade on this site the last several days
Some respected individuals have been in favor of such a move. I think it makes way more sense with Millsap than it did with Lee. Just my opinion. I’m just fine if we keep JP. I worry he’ll opt out next year and we’ll have nothing for him if he leaves, but I’m perfectly happy if he stays. BUT.. I’m less concerned if he does leave if Millsap is on board.
by 52therim on Jul 9, 2009 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I started a "we need to get Battier" thread the other day
but I stopped short of putting Joel into a deal to acquire Shane.
Millsap’s arrival would not change that decision
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 9, 2009 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joel to the Rockets helps them more than Battier helps us,
especially since trading Joel weakens us at center. I don’t like helping the Rockets unless the trade is significantly better for us than adding Battier would be.
Joel could opt out of his deal and make more money, but he’d have to be willing to go to a team that needs him as a starting center. I think that is something he would like.
by MiledAnimal on Jul 9, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am making the assumption that Chicago needs a backup PG back if they send Hinrich out
Blake has been the guy in the rumors, but maybe it will Pargo. I’m not sure that makes as much sense as Blake.
I just don’t think we get Hinrich without sending Blake out.
by 52therim on Jul 9, 2009 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I'm not so sure that Blake and Outlaw get you Cap'n Kirk
not since the RLEC went away
maybe offering Rudy would get the Bull’s attention, but I think KP and Nate like Blake and want to see how Jerryd does next week
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 9, 2009 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And why would Utah want to deal with us
after we just screwed them?
by BrewDude on Jul 8, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who else can they deal with?
Memphis?
BTW, the Blazers traded up to 22 in the draft to move ahead of Sacramento. The next day, they traded Sergio to Sacramento. If you hold grudges, you don’t get very far.
by grigs on Jul 8, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
mem, sac, or okc
all can absorb contracts. none of them can offer expiring deals that also can actually play at a high level (outlaw, blake)
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe KP just wants to make it as expensive as possible for Utah to keep Millsap
They will improve next year via NY’s first round pick anyway. Time to make them weaker either by acquiring their young prospect, or destroying any additional cap plans they might have had.
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
by Norsktroll on Jul 8, 2009 7:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Gathering assets = more options
KP would be very up front with Millsap before Millsap signed anything. If playing backup to LMA meant several more million dollars a year for five years, then why wouldn’t Millsap be okay with it? It’s not like he’s going to be playing for a contract next year.
Also, it is a lot easier to trade quality bigs for quality guards than the other way around. Who knows, maybe, just maybe, New Orleans (or some team like them) gets desperate enough with the projected decreasing luxury tax that they would be forced to shed serious salary and would be willing to take an Aldridge or Millsap + Bayless + Picks + Cash for Chris Paul.
Worst case is Utah signs the toxic (for them) contract and plunges deeper into luxury tax pain world.
by Blazer Fan in Chicago on Jul 8, 2009 7:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I guess after further consideration
If Millsap is okay with being a true backup and getting 20 minutes or less a night, this would be okay assuming all other deals have fallen through. He’s like that kinda okay girl you see in the bar at the start of the night and take home after striking out with all the hotter options.
Yes, I just called Paul Millsap a mildly attractive woman and said Hedo Turkoglu was sexy.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 8:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm just glad to know KP is still showing up for work in the morning.
...refusing Coolio's sloppy seconds since 2001...
by TheTinfoil on Jul 8, 2009 8:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They'll match any offer.
And the Blazers probably know that, so perhaps they’re trying to force the Jazz as high into tax territory as possible. I’d love to get this guy, but there’s just no way Utah lets him walk. We can offer 5 years/50 million, and that seems like a bargain for your starting PF.
Interesting thought: If they do get him, does LMA become expendable?
"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez
by bfan on Jul 8, 2009 8:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Uh, no..PLEASE no..
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Jimi Hendrix
by philly420pdxhilo on Jul 8, 2009 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on what we could get for him.
I would rather have one center and two 4/5’s though. Trading Joel would probably make more sense.
by Nick Van Excellent on Jul 9, 2009 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if we get Millsap
I think the blazers will think about trading LMA for a PG
by kengriffey on Jul 8, 2009 8:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
pdxrob said it the best
LMA is going nowhere
The NBA: Where amazingly bad officiating happens, is encouraged, and rewarded.
by The Roybot on Jul 8, 2009 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Aldridge is traded
I will slap KP.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
right on da haid
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if we get Millsap...
I think the Blazers will think about trading Millsap for a PG
by The Penguin on Jul 8, 2009 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea i could see that also
besides roy, LMA has most trade value being the blazers second best player
by kengriffey on Jul 8, 2009 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For me, LMA
leaving would only be OK if we fetch a star PG (not rubio, rondo, anyone over 32, etc. And to fetch that we’d need to throw in another piece.
LMA+Trout+Bayless+Nic+pick for CP3…
Nah…
by The Penguin on Jul 8, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not for 60 days
or Dec 15th, whichever comes last
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
right. This would seem to signal more toward a Przybilla trade.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
or not
I like the “LMA playing 6 minutes per half at the 3” idea, better
The Blazers need to add toughness to the roster, not trade it away. And injuries happen, so don’t be so quick to deal Przy
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
...
What “series of trades” was Quick talking about?
by BlazerBen on Jul 8, 2009 8:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Gerald Wallace is one
idk what others
The NBA: Where amazingly bad officiating happens, is encouraged, and rewarded.
by The Roybot on Jul 8, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd assume Kirk Hinrich was one
Maybe some Devin Harris feelers.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Devin Harris for sure
But I don’t know about Kirk. The Blazers really don’t seem to like him for some reason.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 8, 2009 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amare isn't a free agent
The NBA: Where amazingly bad officiating happens, is encouraged, and rewarded.
by The Roybot on Jul 8, 2009 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Amare would want starters minutes and a max salary
If he didn’t get that, he’d throw a diva fit.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And he wants only purple fruit
And flowers that start with C in the locker room
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 8, 2009 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he's a silly head
Big ego, no defense whatsoever, etc.
Mo—
by Mortimer on Jul 8, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stoudamire
Y’know- Damon’s boy
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 8, 2009 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love this
Millsap had a legitimate case to be an allstar over David West last year. He’s an outstanding player and we might get him at good value. Do we have enough minutes available? I dunno. I do know that I’d be offering NJ and LMA for Harris swap, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Anyway, it would create a logjam, but I can live with it because Millsap is an awesome player to have as your good backup 4.
by jksnake99 on Jul 8, 2009 8:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
so then what? are we standing pat otherwise? do we have another plan for a trade? your thoughts jake?
by GreatOden'sRaven on Jul 8, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
who knows?
I’d love to think we could still get Kirk Hinrich for Blake and Outlaw. I have no idea what KP is up to.
by jksnake99 on Jul 8, 2009 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's just like what we were talking about
I’d LOVE to get Millsap with our cap space, because that is an incredibly fair deal for a guy as talented as him.
Want a banger? We got it. Want a guy who can also start at a near allstar level? Got it.
Big time rebounder and can score inside. Tries on defense, and plays tough.
Love it. SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much better than David Lee.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Jul 8, 2009 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably a trade with Przybilla. Given that he’s potentially in the last year of his contract and going to be 31 next summer, that’s a smart basketball move. Millsap-Aldridge-Oden is three potentially all-star caliber bigs.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that makes sense
If you can get Millsap for a good value, I don’t have a problem with doing it, even if a ton of minutes aren’t immediately available. I approve of pursuing Millsap.
by jksnake99 on Jul 8, 2009 8:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
think of the 1 or 3 that could be had with Przybilla, Bayless, Batum, etc.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but why gut the roster
when it’s not necessary?
If Utah fails to match, then deal Outlaw for a 5th guard who can shoot (Dooling) sign Roy/LMA to extensions and get ready for training camp
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure there are enough minutes for four EXCELLENT bigs.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should clarify: I would LOVE to have all four. We would set NBA records for rebounding prowess. I just dunno if their egos would allow it.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I worked out a way to get them all minutes
LMA 36 mpg
Millsap 26 mpg
Joel+Oden up to 48mpg
the details are up above ^
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bigs should not masquerade as wings. We have enough talented wings, we shouldn’t take minutes from Batum, Rudy, Roy, and Martell just to appease LMA. I’d rather have an unhappy PF and good SF play than bad SF play and unhappy SFs.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
We have enough talented wings, eh?
So talented that KP tried like heck to sign Hedo?
Read this quote, again
“I don’t think they operate like everyone else, where they have to fit everyone into a hole,” Bartelstein said of the Blazers. “They work to acquire great, young players and they make it work. And that’s what I think they are doing, trying to get the best players they can. And if (Pritchard) has an over-abundance of bigs? That’s a good position to be in in the NBA.”
Big men depth is not a bad thing. I’m not trying to “appease” anyone. I’m putting 2+2 together. If KP/Nate are signing Millsap to an offer sheet, they’ve already had these discussions and I strongly doubt that “trading JP” is anywhere near the radar
Batum is young. Martell is hurt and can’t be counted on. Outlaw is trade bait. LMA can fill those “extra” SF minutes and the overall team will be tougher
Read Bartelstein’s quote again. Big men depth is not a bad thing
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t say PF depth was a bad thing.
You’re making the assumption that LMA would play at 3.
I’m making the assumption that he wouldn’t, at least not regularly.
So it appears we are at an impass, as neither of us knows KP’s actualy thought process.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know KP likes Przy, a lot
and you think if Millsap comes, then Joel is gonzo
but its not necessarily so
And who’s to say LMA wouldn’t embrace the idea of playing some minutes at the 3? Float out to the perimeter for 6 minutes a half? That’s like him getting an extra timeout. And LMA could “sag” off the SF on the other end and dare him to shoot a long 2…not a bad idea
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't have to trade Przybilla
Przybilla has the most limited game of the bunch, and at the moment is only insurance until Oden proves he can stay healthy. He has no problem with a 10-15 mpg role. And if anything, this allows him to be more aggressive on defense. His shotblocking numbers have regressed as he has had to stay out of foul trouble as a starter.
Further, I like Millsap for this team better than I do David Lee. Taking away from a division rival is just a bonus. I’d expect Utah to match though, as they have no long term plans for Boozer.
by Real 2K Insider on Jul 8, 2009 8:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They may match
but Millsap has the final say. Maybe he thinks his future is better with the Blazers.
The NBA: Where amazingly bad officiating happens, is encouraged, and rewarded.
by The Roybot on Jul 8, 2009 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think his future would be better here
In Utah he’ll be the starter after Boozer leaves in 2010. In Portland he’d never be the starter unless Aldridge got hurt or for some godforsaken reason traded.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Millsap doesn't have the final say
if Utah Matches, he goes to Utah.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
by usmcr3049 on Jul 8, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
millsap does NOT have the final say
if we offer, and utah matches, nothing millsap can do but report to camp in Salt Lake
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shoot
nevermind then =)
The NBA: Where amazingly bad officiating happens, is encouraged, and rewarded.
by The Roybot on Jul 8, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Jazz match, Millsap goes back to Utah
That’s the “restricted” part of restricted free agent. But I agree with Real. If the Trail Blazers sign Millsap, Oden, Aldridge and Millsap will get the majority of the time at 4/5, with Joel getting his time cut. I’d say 10-15 mpg would be about right, and I can’t imagine Pryz complaining too much, considering the team would be winning. But I think it would be an absolute dynamite move
I want Greg Oden to tuck me in at night and tell me stories about the old times
by Juiceman76 on Jul 8, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would love Milsap, but I'm sure Utah will match. You can't have too many bigs.
by dario argento on Jul 8, 2009 8:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
unless they hate paying luxury tax
then he’s ours! – Elgin
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a win, win, or win
I like it no matter what theoutcome…
1. Get a good player,.. He plays back-up minutes, or saves us in case of injury to one of
our frontcourt guys, or gives us twice as many trade possibilities at the trade deadline
(or even during next draft)
2. Utah loses a good player
3. Utah has to spend and or make some really tough decisions. (If this hapens we just
hang till a good deal comes up when some teams have to give in to economics)
Its all good!
by Rick_D on Jul 8, 2009 8:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Keep Aldridge
He compliments Oden a bit better than Millsap. Frontcourt depth is a plus since they get into foul trouble far more than guards.
There aren’t any PGs out there who’d be an upgrade over Blake. Harris isn’t a good 3pt shooter and most of his assists come off dribble penetration (you already have Brandon Roy). He’s a defensive upgrade over Blake, sure, but that’s not worth what Aldridge brings. You’d essentially be trading for the Dallas version of Devin Harris, not the NJN version.
by Real 2K Insider on Jul 8, 2009 8:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thaaaaaank you
I’m so sick of everyone thinking Devin Harris is holds our championship key.
by GMan83201 on Jul 8, 2009 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm OK with the Dallas version of Devin Harris
He improves us on both ends of the floor. – Elgin
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Millsap would be a fantastic fantastic fantastic use of our free agent dollars. He is a studly studly player…
I think this would be the beginning of the end for Joel Przybilla as a Portland Trailblazer… he would be a very attractive asset in a deal for a 1 or 3.
You know who is happiest about this news? Paul Millsap.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 8:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree! JP could be gone.
I have been opposed to moving JP with the idea of Aldridge backing up Oden. This deal changes that. Millsap is a rebounding machine. LA & PM frontline for 15 minutes a night would be just fine. Now go get Battier!
by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 8:48 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
KP is trying to add toughness to the roster
So why would he deal his toughest player (Joel) away? Say it with me “big man depth is a good thing”
“I don’t think they operate like everyone else, where they have to fit everyone into a hole,” Bartelstein said of the Blazers. “They work to acquire great, young players and they make it work. And that’s what I think they are doing, trying to get the best players they can. And if (Pritchard) has an over-abundance of bigs? That’s a good position to be in in the NBA.”
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been making the same argument when Dave spoke of trading Przy for Battier...
but adding Millsap changes the equation for me.
Battier + LMA + Oden = Very “tough” starting lineup
Battier + Millsap + LMA = plenty “tough” when we decide to go small
by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Battier a lot, but I don't trade Pryz for Shane
I know Dave thinks Joel might opt out next summer, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Joel and Blake get extensions, once Portland is over the cap and Roy/LMA get locked up
I think KP knows who he wants to go to war with. Millsap would be another warrior. If KP/Penn add that signing bonus to Paul’s offer sheet, then Nate will be ready to go into battle with 4 bigs who can foul hard without fear of ever getting disqualified. That’s saying a lot, come playoff time
Toughness and physicality, big men depth is never a bad thing
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
neither do I
here’s the deal: when Joel is on the team Greg will stay healthy. If Joel gets traded, Oden goes down with an injury. – Elgin
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While I don't think he fills our biggest needs
I think he’s probably the best available talent left on the®FA market. I’d take him over Lee any day.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although Paul Millsap’s price tag originally was set by his agent at $10 million a season, the Jazz’s chances of re-signing the restricted free-agent forward for the midlevel exception of $5.854 million (and possibly even less) appear to be growing
The Jazz plan to make Millsap a fair offer, but will not overpay out of loyalty.
http://www.sltrib.com/jazz/ci_12789877
The NBA: Where amazingly bad officiating happens, is encouraged, and rewarded.
by The Roybot on Jul 8, 2009 8:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Holy Shucks!
If this is true something is happening in the background. I’m sure there’s little possibility that KP is going to employ long term, two high quality PF’s. Makes no sense money or morale wise.
So which of the two, LA or Milsap is he planning to use as trade fodder and for what position, and WHO?? Of course he may not yet have all the answers in hand, but I’d bet my left gonad that his intentions aren’t to go the long run with both LA and Milsap.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
by TwoDeep on Jul 8, 2009 8:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
or they are two parts of a three big rotation, similar to those employed by LA, Utah, Cleveland, etc. Most of those teams have two power forwards and a center.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both Millsap and LMA can play backup center
As long as they are against other backups.
Depending on the matchup, they can handle some starting centers as well.
Millsap fills a need now (backup PF, more front court depth), and helps the post-Pryzbilla transition which will happen one day while we’re in the midst of our runs at a title.
At the very least, it’s getting a very good player for a very fair price. Can’t beat that!
Morty
by Mortimer on Jul 8, 2009 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus, 75% of the teams in the league don’t have a great center, and very few have two. If Oden is good, LMA/Millsap/Oden/some fourth big works just fine.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
4th big: Pendergraph?
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How does Utah trading for Hamilton accomplish anything?
They would still be over the cap, what am I missing here? How does this help Utah with regards to Millsap?
by calebEOC on Jul 8, 2009 8:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
they're in the luxury tax
If they can trim $5mil, the owner saves $10 mil.
by austinpwnz on Jul 8, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
take milsap and trade joel
the more i think about it the more it makes sense. smaller powerforwards like milsap and big baby are having sucess in the league, and milsap would be awesome for our team. in regards to a new frontcourt i think a 3 man front of oden, aldridge and milsap would be great. it gives milsap the minutes he wants, the oppourtunity for oden to get as many minutes as possible, and same for aldridge, however i fear aldridge would have to play center too much due to oden foul trouble. milsap generates a lot of talk, which is always good for us.
by StocktonNEP on Jul 8, 2009 8:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh yes yes yes
this is sooo much better than Hedo.
"Ooo la la! The Blazers are le chic, no?"
by SabonisBonus on Jul 8, 2009 8:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m going to assume that we are at an even 50 million for payroll, just for simplicity’s sake.
If we renounce/trade for future considerations two of our Euros, that brings us to 8.9 million. A salary starting at 8.9 million, with the maximum 8% increases, would be as follows:
8.9
9.61
10.38
11.21
12.1
It would equal 5 years and 52.2 million. Consider that roughly the maximum offer Portland could make at this point.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 8:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the 8.9 million I borrowed from Quick, again, for simplicity. It might be a little off, considering his past calculations.
draft the stache
by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually it's right on.
Just over $8.9 million in cap space if both Koponen and Freeland are renounced.
Here’s a bonus – Portland can actually go $100,000 over the cap to sign a FA. So, the first year can be the max of an even $9 million.
by Storyteller on Jul 8, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the whole thing is a ploy
to push Utah into a position of having to trade us Deron Williams.
“Ok Utah, we won’t force you to pay huge sums to keep Milsap, but you have to trade us Williams for Blake, Outlaw, and Mills.”
by superfly05 on Jul 8, 2009 8:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that would be so incredibly cool!
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Millsap....
But the most important question is, where does his wife want to live?
by FrenchieFan on Jul 8, 2009 8:51 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
NOT Utah.
Sounds like this offer is just about fool proof. Hopefully we actually get him, but just screwing over Utah would be fun, too.
by JK47 on Jul 8, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha yeahcmon now utah.. whast utah got other than mormons
Oden...Aldridge...Roy.....THE REAL BIG THREE
by CroRupt on Jul 8, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some beautiful MTN's
But I don’t see Millsap on planks or a board.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On belay?
Some nice climbing right next to the city too.
by ninjasocks on Jul 8, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whats Utah going to do back to us to get revenge?
They are all good people any revenge wouldn’t go over well with their population.
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Jul 8, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
funny
Millsap’s from Grambling, LA. The Jazz once had another pretty fair PF who came out of that state
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Jazz themselves came out of that state.
by MiledAnimal on Jul 8, 2009 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember those godawful uniforms
Rick Adelman played with Pistol Pete?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NOJ/1975.html
A lot of former Blazers made their way down to the big easy
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Toronto screwed us into a far better deal!
by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 8:53 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
If the Portland Trail Blazers want to screw with the Utah Jazz, then Tom Penn should create a deal for ...
Paul Millsap that includes a signing bonus worth up to 17.5% of the contract — which’d be paid upfront, but charged to the cap proportionally throughout the entirety of it — so as to all but ensure that those who head Larry H. Miller’s estate will balk at matching the offer sheet.
All in all, the Trail Blazers should renounce its draft rights to Joel Freeland and Petteri Koponen — which’d clear some more money from the books — and, in turn, tender Millsap the following five-year, $50,000,000 offer sheet:
Signing Bonus: $8,750,000
2009-2010: $7,150,000 (Cap Hit: $8,900,000)
2010-2011: $7,700,000 (Cap Hit: $9,450,000)
2011-2012: $8,250,000 (Cap Hit: $10,000,000)
2012-2013: $8,800,000 (Cap Hit: $10,550,000)
2013-2014: $9,350,000 (Cap Hit: $11,100,000)
Well, that’s that.
by AK1984 on Jul 8, 2009 8:54 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs