It is time to take a break from all the endless speculation about the draft, free agents, and trades.  Let's talk about something that really matters:  the development of the teams outstanding collection of sophomores.  I would argue that the development of these four guys is a lot more important to the teams future than any single player we may acquire with our cap room. 

What follows started as a response to Dave's front page piece.  It just got too big to post in that thread.  I realize that it is generally bad form to duplicate front page material in a Fanpost, but I have been thinking about making a post along these lines for some time now.  Hope you all understand, and hope this provokes some good discussion.  In particular, I am interested in hearing other peoples takes on the chances that our sophomores will grow up to be the big men on campus.  More after the jump

Fifteen years from now when we look back at this era of the Blazers,  I think we will see that the future of the team rested on the shoulders of our four sophomores.  At this point, we know who Roy and LMA are, we may not know exactly how far they will develop, but the general outline is there for all to see. 

What is less certain is the development of our four sophomores.  If everything goes well, and all four reach their full potential, the Blazers are likely to be a dynasty.  Batum, Rudy and Bayless can each answer a huge question mark for the team: 

1)  Batum:  Nic could become our lock down perimeter defender, the guy who can slow down Kobe and LeBron and the other future superstar perimeter players (Durant?).   Offensively, he could be as limited as Battier, or he may exceed Prince.  If he does, he will provide a scoring compliment that will make it nearly impossible for teams to double LMA and Roy.   Batum's success will mean success for both Roy and LMA.  He doesn't have to ever become a 20 pt scorer, he just needs to be a constant threat, a guy who can score opportunistically and who can find his open teammates. 

Chance of becoming a top perimeter defender and solid spot-up shooter:  85%

Chance of becoming a good scorer and play-maker in addition to the above:  60%

2)  Rudy:  he could become a top flight sixth man.  A guy who who is such a good shooter that you dare not leave him open for a second.  The kind of player who is an assassin off the bench with his ability to get open and hit the three.  Think of Rudy as our potential Reggie Miller.  The other team knows he is going to shoot the long ball and tries to stop him, but he is so good working off screens and shoots with such a quick release, you just can't keep him from getting his shot off.  

The question with Rudy is that it is unclear whether or not he can add other components to his game besides the long ball.  So far, Rudy doesn't seem to have enough size and strength to get to the rim very often.  He is not good enough off the dribble to get enough separation to shoot a high percentage from mid-range.  A few pounds of muscle certainly wouldn't hurt.  A better handle would help as well. 

Given his lack of strength and his, mediocre by NBA standards, lateral quickness, Rudy is unlikely to ever be more than an average defender.  Rudy is 24, and has been a pro for 6 years.  He is much closer to his ceiling than the other three sophomores.  To my eyes, Rudy has less potential to become a truly outstanding all around player than the other three.  However, because of his extraordinary potential as a shooter, his flare for the game, and his relentless energy without the ball, he is an extremely valuable commodity.  Great shooters are a rare commodity.  Great shooters who understand when to shoot and when to pass are even rarer.  Rudy didn't set the rookie record for threes by chance.  Rudy's potential ceiling as an all around player may be lower, but he is, by far, currently the most skilled of our sophomores.

Chance Rudy becomes a quality sixth man, providing energy and outstanding spot-up shooting off the bench:  90%

Chance Rudy becomes a top sixth man, and an all-around scorer off the bench:  50%

3)  Bayless:  By far the most controversial of the four.  Some see him as nothing more than a undersized SG with a broken shot.  Those with this view want to trade him as quickly as possible.  Others see him as "the point guard of the future,"  a sure fire bet to devour the league.  My own take, expressed ad nauseum, is cautious optimism.

Bayless played a total of 600 minutes last season.  His season stats are poor, but I think the season stats are misleading.  They include a high percentage of garbage time minutes, a fair amount of minutes at the SG, and even a fair number of minutes where Bayless effectively played the SF role in a three guard line-up.  During the one stretch of fairly decent minutes where he actually played the point, his PER was over 15, his FG% was 48%, and he averaged about 4 assists on 20 minutes of PT.

Regardless of whether or not you regard Bayless' performance last season as a case of the glass being one third full, or two-thirds empty, we should not forget who this guy is.  Bayless was a McDonald's All-American.  He was recruited by Lute Olsen to be the PG at PG University.  He was expected to be drafted between 4-8 in last years draft, and it was a minor miracle that he dropped to us at eleven.  Most evaluators believe that if he had waited till this year, he would have been top 5.  If we had just gotten him, we would be salivating.

How he got to be so controversial is interesting.  Many of the complaints and negative evaluations of Bayless that get thrown around come from those who preferred Sergio's game.  These folks naturally looked at Bayless with a built in negative bias.  Fortunately, there is pretty strong evidence that Bayless is viewed differently by team management.  Sergio is gone.  The team did not trade up to grab another PG in the draft.  KP singled out Bayless as a guy he thought would make a huge leap over the summer.  Bayless was invited to return to the Team USA development squad with the big three.  Obviously, Bayless is still viewed as a truly outstanding prospect by those who know the most.

If Bayless finds his shot, he is going to become a multi-threat offensive force:  able to penetrate at will; strong enough to finish a high percentage at the rim; able to stop on a dime and elevate for the jumper off the dribble; able to shoot a decent percentage when left alone on the perimeter: or able to drive past a recovering defender.  Roy described defending Bayless in practice as being like defending D Wade.  Think about that comparison for a minute.  As a defender, Bayless has the strength, speed, and aggression to, at least, become an above average defender.  I think it is just a matter of time on the court.

The real question with Bayless is can he learn to run a team?  And, assuming he can, how long will it take?  This is the caution part of my cautious optimism.  Some guys figure it out, some guys don't.  Bayless does not appear to be selfish, nor uncoachable.  He is smart and a relentless worker.  To me, I think he has a good chance to succeed, but it makes sense for the team to not put all of its eggs in Bayless' basket. 

Chance Bayless becomes an effective multi-threat scorer and above average defender:  75%
Chance Bayless becomes the above and becomes an adequate distributor:  65%

4) Oden:  Why save Oden for last?  Because Oden is by far the most important.  If one of the other three fails to live up to their potential, the Blazers will have a significant role to fill, but the teams future success will not be endangered.  Oden is the fulcrum on which the teams future will be determined.  If Greg becomes the dominant rebounder and defender we all hope he will be, and if he develops one or two good low post moves to compliment his put-backs, the Blazers will be challenging for titles for as long as the big three are wearing Red and Black.

It is pretty simple:  dominant big men are the rarest commodity in basketball, and because of their position on the court, they are involved in a huge percentage of plays.  If Greg becomes dominant, everything else will become easier.

Chance GO becomes at least a 14 and 12 center, who is a defensive force:  90%
Chance GO becomes a dominant scorer on top of rebounding and defense:  60%