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Crystal Ball: The Most Pivotal Future Blazers

Our ongoing discussion of players and trades and such has begged yet another important question:  which current Blazers are going to be most pivotal to the team two or three years from now?  Besides the obvious pair, last year's list would certainly include Joel Przybilla and Steve Blake.  How much will that change?

Here's a list of the four players most likely to be pivotal in 2011 and beyond, followed by a listing of the rest of the players and an explanation why they weren't included in the top four.

Frankly the first three aren't going to be a mystery, but we can spend a second with the whys and hows.

Brandon Roy is obviously the key to this team and will remain so.  He's the leader, the heart and soul, and the most likely candidate to be a Blazer for life.  But "pivotal" implies that something can swing either way.  For Roy it's his physical health, which thankfully appears to be less of an issue than once feared.  Can his feet and knees hold up to the stress?  If so, we have no worries.

LaMarcus Aldridge is the main guy who takes the pressure off of Brandon offensively.  He's the first option not only on the run but on many of Portland's halfcourt sets.  Life would be easier for the team if he consistently broke the 20-point barrier despite the extra attention he garners.  Having two near-impossible matchups would allow the team to concentrate on defense, shooting, and smarts at the other positions.  LaMarcus would also help by upping his defensive rebounding just a tad, though with Greg Oden and a strong enough small forward rebounder it may not matter as much.  If LaMarcus can't summon the will, energy, and discipline to become a huge offensive player then the Blazers will eventually be forced to carry another star-level scorer.

Greg Oden will be the biggest pivot of them all (excuse the pun).  If he can stay healthy like everyone prays he will and can rebound and defend like everyone prays he can the Blazers become serious contenders.  He probably doesn't have to score higher than the mid-teens to make that happen. Without Oden clogging the middle and grabbing 10+ boards per night this team becomes good, but probably falls short a la the Jazz or Suns of recent vintage.

Enough with the obvious.  Of the remaining Blazers, who makes this list and why?  Find out after the jump.

Star-divide

For my money it's Nicolas Batum.  As long as the above-mentioned players are on track, Batum brings a potent set of potential skills to the table.  He's a perimeter defender.  He can hit the three.  He can also drive and finish gracefully.  He can rebound reasonably.  What more do you need from a small forward accompanying those three primary players?  You don't want a guy who needs 20 shots per game or will dribble out the shot clock.  You need a great defender who can pick his spots with a couple ways to score.  If he retains his confidence and gets more comfortable attacking the basket he could well be the secret ingredient that binds the starting lineup together, the guy that makes other teams say, "That's just not fair!"  He may not turn out to be the best player among the remaining Blazers, but he could well turn out to be the most important.  His pivot point is his confidence, however.  He needs to be aggressive with his opportunities on both ends of the court even knowing he's not the main guy out there.  If he remains passive, settling for being the occasional corner three-point guy for instance, he loses his promise.

And now for the rest of the team...

Jerryd Bayless narrowly missed being included in the top four.  It's not for lack of talent, skill, or potential.  He could well turn out to be everything the Blazers need in a point guard and more.  He can defend.  He can drive.  He's physically imposing.  Whatever natural point guard instinct he lacks (if any) could be made up for by his backcourt partner.  If he develops an outside shot he'll be downright frightening.  He missed making the top four a top five mostly for situational reasons.  How well can he really play with Roy (which means playing without the ball in his hands as much as he'd like)?  Also when push comes to shove I believe the Blazers could still win with a point guard of more modest means as long as that point guard possessed a couple critical skills:  defense, perimeter shooting, and an appropriate sense of timing.  The frontcourt needs more help than the backcourt, so Batum gets the nod by a hair over Bayless.  The outside shot and learning to flourish even when plays don't start and end with him are Jerryd's pivot points.

Rudy Fernandez misses the most pivotal list because I'm not sure where he fits in or where he wants to fit in.  His distance shooting will make him welcome in any offense.  He also has a keen sense of how offense works and is great off the ball.  That makes him a nice asset to pair with our other dribble-heavy guards.  However position is an issue.  He's not a small forward.  It'd be amazing to see him develop point guard skills but until they're more evident you can't assume that's in the offing.  He doesn't function well off the dribble, so that may be a big leap.  Until then, the harsh reality is he'll be a reserve as long as he's a shooting guard and Brandon Roy is on this team.  Another one is that the Blazers might be able to get three-point shooting from another source, especially with the halfcourt offense geared around Roy and Aldridge.  Plus even 6th man might not be Rudy's desired impact on the league, especially if he's not compensated as highly as the starters or getting as many minutes.  I can envision the team quite happy and successful with Rudy.  I can also see it without, whether by their choice or his.  That keeps him off the top list for now.

Joel Przybilla would make a great Blazer for the rest of his career.  You'd be happy and feel secure having him back up Greg Oden as long as he can play.  However a couple things stand in the way of him looking like a most-pivotal piece in 2011 and beyond.  First, as we've mentioned thoroughly, he does play behind Oden.  If Greg becomes the center this team needs Joel becomes less crucial.  Second, though I didn't hear the broadcast myself apparently Mike Barrett speculated on Courtside Monday Night that Joel would test the waters and opt out of his contract after this season.  He's scheduled to make $7.4 million if he doesn't opt out.  If he chooses to forego that final year he and his agent must believe there's significantly more money in it for him.  As you start to approach $10 million Joel gets a little less palatable as a guy playing 15 minutes behind Greg.  I don't believe Joel needs to do anything to make himself more crucial.  He just needs to stay and see how well Oden progresses.

Martell Webster could sneak onto the top four list if Nicolas Batum doesn't pan out.  He'd be a good alternative in a different way.  He doesn't have the defensive chops that Nicolas does but he's always good with the three-ball and he's not shy about taking the shot.  He also has a great body.  He needs to show the ability to put the ball on the floor when defended in order to become more valuable.  Obviously his injury keeps us from over-relying on his Blazer future at this time.  As with Rudy you also have to wonder if Martell would be content with less than a starting role for his career.  He may have the talent to outshine Batum but he may not provide the total package that blends in with the players in the starting lineup.

Steve Blake doesn't get near enough credit for his unobtrusive three-point shooting and seamless blending with Brandon Roy this year.  He's a natural fit with the superstar which is usually a key to longevity.  His marksmanship opened up the floor for the drivers this year as well.  But he's also among the most speculated about Portland players as far as trades.  His contract expires this year.  If he's retained it could well be as the second point guard.  It's hard to envision him being considered among the most pivotal Blazers.  Under-appreciated, yes.  But flat out in the top four is a stretch.

Travis Outlaw's improved outside shooting took him another step towards reliability and respectability last year.  He can get his own shot off the dribble even if that shot isn't as classically styled, which is one of his main contributions to the team now.  But he's still somewhat unreliable, his defense is intermittent, and he's a man without a position.  He's not done that well at small forward and there aren't all that many power forward minutes to be had on this team.  As with Aldridge, his rebounding woes may become less of an issue as Greg Oden develops.  Consistency and well-roundedness are his main obstacles.  Without those evidenced at a high level it's difficult to predict he'll crack the most pivotal list in a couple years. 

I'm sure most of you will want to shuffle the list, but as you do so remember we're not necessarily talking about the most talented, highest scoring, most important right now, or most beloved Blazers.  The list describes who will be the most pivotal/crucial in 2-3 years.  Have at it.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

2 recs  |  Comment 158 comments

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you nailed the top 4

and the rest of the list looks to be ordered correctly as well, though I think you’ll get a lot of people wanting Rudy in the 4 or 5 slot and not the 6th.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 12:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

DIdn't try for order

I didn’t order the rest of the team specifically (intentionally anyway). I put Bayless and Rudy first because I knew people would want to read about them and then did the rest more or less by salary. But if folks want to do a 1-10 list that’s cool with me too. It’s just more work than I put in.

—Dave

by Dave on Jul 8, 2009 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

okay but by your own definition

Nic shouldn’t be in there. You said pivotal. If Nic doesn’t make it, the pivot doesn’t swing the other way. We haven’t lost anything.

JAWESOME!!

by TheOdenator on Jul 8, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am

Ok if kp stick with this crew. We are so deep and now we know how to win after a 54 win season. Unless we bring gerald wallace…

by FrenchToast on Jul 8, 2009 12:36 AM PDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

if we bring in GW

I’d move bayless ahead of batum because of the availability of court time at the position. I would like to see GW come over in an imbalanced trade from their cheap owner.

by lurtsman on Jul 8, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In order

Roy
Oden
LMA
Batum
Bayless
Rudy
Przybilla
Martell
Travis
Blake

draft the stache

by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 12:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

good job on the article… you nailed it on Batum.

draft the stache

by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A little bit different order
  1. B.Roy is a Champ!
    LMA
    Oden
    Hienrich (trade)
    Rudy (or Bayless, depends on who steps up)
    Pryzbilla
    Outlaw
    Martell
    Bass (free agent)
    Batum
    Bayless
    PG3

Blake is gone to aquire someone like Heinrich, keeping Outlaw in Portland yet again…

by Portland Dynasty on Jul 8, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

my order is close to yours Cab

Roy
LMA
Oden
Batum
Blake
Rudy
Przybilla
Martell
Travis
Bayless
Pendergraph
Mills

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Jul 8, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Roy
Oden
LMA
Rudy
Batum
Przybilla
Blake
Bayless
Webster
Outlaw

by trk on Jul 8, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and Sarge?

I would be curious to see where you would put Coach Mac on your list.

by scottbones on Jul 8, 2009 12:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It's hard to do a coach

I don’t think any coach is indispensible. With a few exceptions if you make it to this level you have pretty good ideas. It’s mostly a matter of blending with your players and finding the balance between maximizing their gifts and channeling those same gifts for the good of the whole. So I guess I’d not say Nate was that pivotal compared to some of the players BUT that’s with the caveat that he’s great at what he does as he’s probably a better coach for this team than most people we could name. We’ll see if that remains true in a couple years.

—Dave

by Dave on Jul 8, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This year is big for Nate. Wouldn't you agree Dave?

The talent on this team is too great to just have Roy or Blake walk the ball up the court every night. They have greyhounds on this team that will need to get buckets in the open court and blow the doors off teams early. If they can get just that one thing done, they can keep everyone happy with more shot attempts, as well as cutting down the wear and tear on Roy.

NATE WILL BE KEY THIS YEAR.

2-4 the who

by 24thewho on Jul 8, 2009 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

which reminds me

Nate is in his contract year. I know he was approached last year about starting extension talks, which he turned down. But what about this summer? Not too many teams/coaches enter a season with a lame duck coach, and for good reason.

My thinking all along was that he would wait until we extend Roy and LMA, then would come to the table for a new deal as well. But I tell you what, if he doesn’t want to sign an extension this summer, I would have to start thinking about who my next coach is going to be.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know he was approached last year about starting extension talks, which he turned down.

At least, that’s the company line. If something different went down, I don’t think we’d publicly know.

Not too many teams/coaches enter a season with a lame duck coach, and for good reason.

When he spent a season in Seattle as a lame-duck coach, he bolted for Portland at the end of the year.

if he doesn’t want to sign an extension this summer, I would have to start thinking about who my next coach is going to be.

Absolutely.

I suspect he’ll sign an extension before the season starts, likely 2 years. Just a hunch.

by Timmay! on Jul 8, 2009 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe he's angling on going to Los Angeles to coach his pal Kobe... I hear they pay pretty well and the job isn't too tough.
Nate is in his contract year. I know he was approached last year about starting extension talks, which he turned down.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lets make this a tim trifecta.

I’m a big McMillan fan. I wouldn’t read too much in his declining to talk about an extension. I think Nate knows that if the team is successful again this season, he can write his own ticket. And if it falls short, he is the type of man that could conclude on his own that he is no longer the right fit. (Depemding on the circumstances for a less than expected showing.)

I believe that McMillan is confident in his abilities as a coach and doesn’t worry about his contract. The time to think about that will be when it is up.

btw – I think timbo raises an interesting point. After next season, Jackson’s deal is up. If he decides he’s had enough, the Laker job comes on the market. While I don’t really see Nate as an LA guy – he still lives in Seattle – one never knows.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jul 8, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would think

his not signing the extension speaks to his desire to enter the season with new veterans instead of the 4 rookies KP wanted to give him. There was a little banter about what form the violence would take, should KP give him more rooks to work with. I think Nate was just waiting to see how good KP is at acquiring players of drinking age.

by FrederickT1 on Jul 8, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well done list

The biggest question is Bayless becoming #5. I think he might be most improved on the team this year.

Last summer in Summer League I remember Dean saying we have a big four including Outlaw. Not sure he still feel this?

by lee3022 on Jul 8, 2009 12:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Greg Oden will be Most Improved

I know this sounds so tired and we would rather wait and be surprised and not even mention it, but Greg is going to find his groove next year.

quid Latine dictum sit, altum viditur

by dvcastle on Jul 8, 2009 1:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the third day in a row a completely arbitrary list / trade proposal

that leaves Rudy out of the money. This crap is getting really hard to read. I know this is your blog and so I shouldn’t expect objectivity, but c’mon. You should try and take a fresh new look at things. It’d do wonders.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 12:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

the point is that if Bayless and Batum reach their potential, they are starters. If Rudy reaches his potential, he’s still coming off of the bench…

The good news is that I doubt KP moves any of ’em.

draft the stache

by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm having a harder and harder time seeing Batum as exceedingly valuable....

last year Pietrus got the MLE and then in the playoffs was everything and more that we one day HOPE Batum can be. Last year, the Lakers got Ariza for practically nothing. What does he turn around and do? Pretty much exactly what we HOPE Batum can one day. Then, in this very offseason, the Rockets got Ariza for the MLE. A myriad of players that are already contributing exactly what we hope Batum to contribute are being had what seems to be every offseason. That role may seem to be valuable right now, but in reality, teams can get a guy like that a lot easier than they can get what Bayless might be, or what Rudy already is (look at Ben Gordon). It’s time to reevaluate what our guys are worth. Just because he’s technically a 6th man, and will top out at around 30 minutes per game doesn’t mean he’s any less valuable. Points are hard to come by in this league, and they’re even harder to come by at the efficiency level that Rudy puts them up at. I think it’s time for a wake up call. Batum is great, I love him for this team, but what he provides really isn’t THAT hard to find. Even Shane Battier became available recently. Time to take another look.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is a really good point

If a 23 year old Ariza can be gotten for the MLE, maybe Batum isn’t as precious as we thought.

by jksnake99 on Jul 8, 2009 1:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

also, I find it confusing that Dave picks Batum (which I might have done also, incidentally)

just a few days after basically suggesting Ariza wasn’t worth more than 3 mil/year… when Ariza is basically Batum at 85% of Nic’s potential.

by jksnake99 on Jul 8, 2009 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not like he's an old fart either. He's only got Nic plus 3 years.

He can still grow too. I mean, did you see his 3 ball in the playoffs? It’s like I’m watching Bowen reincarnated. Dirt and all.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 1:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ariza at MLE was a good value for Houston. So is the high risk-high reward Artest for that amount, if you get right down to it...

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ariza is mostly potential as well

And if you ask me, he’s a fail in Houston. He’s not somebody who creates his own shots, and with Yao and Crazy Pills gone, that’s what they want him to do.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"ariza is mostly potential"

really? here’s a guy who has had an above average PER and played excellent defense for 3 consecutive years.

by jksnake99 on Jul 8, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mmmmhmm

It’s hard to believe, but yeah, really.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

His 5th year in the league

and his career averages of 6.9 pts 1.3 assists and 3.8 rebounds is hardly setting the league on fire.

I know you like to value players on other teams more than the Blazer players, but if he were a Blazer for the past 5 years and was putting up those numbers, you’d think he was junk.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's ridiculous

I’m a stats guy, but I look at advanced stats not those old fashioned traditional boxscore stats that you just cited. The advanced stats uniformly see Ariza as an above average player on offense, which combined with his deserved reputation as an excellent defender make him clearly a very good player.

by jksnake99 on Jul 8, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Had the Blazers and Bobcats

been talking trade last February and Charlotte said, “We want Mickael Pietrus (or we want Trevor Ariza) along with Raef LaFrentz’s expiring contract and we’ll give you Gerald Wallace” what would the answer have been, assuming of course that either of those players were Blazers?

—Dave

by Dave on Jul 8, 2009 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I might have held on to Ariza but probobly would have pulled the trigger.

I definetely see your point, and I do think Batum has the potential to be significantly more than Ariza, but I still think your stance that Batum is the 4th most important Blazer but Ariza isn’t worth the MLE is inconsistent and well off base.

by jksnake99 on Jul 8, 2009 1:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Combine your comment

about Batum possibly being “significantly more” than Ariza and the fact that we’re not talking about being pivotal right now but two years from now and you’ve answered your own assertion. I didn’t like 5 years and $50 million for Hedo nor would I have liked it for Ariza. Part of that was the players but part of it is also that either signing could have easily re-created the Roy-Rudy dilemma with the three small fowards we now have.

—Dave

by Dave on Jul 8, 2009 1:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And $8-10 million a year

is potentially much more than the MLE. Personally I never mentioned MLE either and the source cited made no reference to the length of the contract. One would assume 4-5 years which could be up to $10 million per year.

—Dave

by Dave on Jul 8, 2009 1:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can still get good players this year paying the MLE...

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OWW!

My eyes! – Elgin

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the difference in that case is contract

Pietrus was owed 21 million over the next 4 years. Ariza was only signed through last year.

If you put Ariza in Batum’s contract you have pretty much the exact same thing.

And you’d probably get the exact same answer from the Blazers.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 1:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll disagree again

Ariza has been talked into greatness. He played well but I never said, wow, that Ariza is one great defender! The potential for Batum to turn into a top flight defender of the Tayshaun Prince variety combined with the fact that Batum is already 80-90% of Ariza, is what makes him so valuable to the Blazers because he could start and log huge minutes for them. Whereas, if Rudy turns into a Ben Gordon-type player (which would be fantastic), he would still be stuck on the bench and probably unhappy about it. Does that mean that I do not like Rudy? No. It just means that he duplicates Roy’s position and that is a hard fact to get over.

Here is one last thing to remember: to beat the best teams in the conference (L*, Denver, SA, NO) Portland will need to have a guy that can lock down the top perimeter players, for better or worse right now, that guy is Batum.

by da34shadow on Jul 8, 2009 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batum is already 80-90% of Ariza

Um… no. That would be nice, and all, but he’s nowhere close to that. Ariza is a role player, but he’s a very good role player. Nic plays well at times, but he’s not close to Ariza’s level.

Batum’s POTENTIAL as a defensive stopper has to be distinguished from actually being one. Nic is too young and too flimsy to really be a shut down guy right now.

His length, athleticism and disposition all tend to indicate tremendous POTENTIAL on the defensive side of the ball, but the Blazers were no better on D last year when Nic was on the court (and watching him play, that wasn’t a surprising stat).

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Jul 8, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i disagree

I watched a number of games where he completely shut down guys. Specifically Chris Paul in Portland. (that was the live game where he really stood out to me and I really watched him closely)

he guards a wide range of people and does a pretty good job. He may be better some nights than others (I didn’t watch every single blazer game), but he is definitely a defensive stopper.

"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.

But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html

by ratbastird on Jul 8, 2009 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batum's value is partly based on potential which tends to make him a bit over-valued...

but Ariza is so ridiculously overrated right now. It will be interesting to see how he does when he has no Kobe to collapse defenses and provide for wide open looks. Even with Kobe he disappeared in large stretches.

by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ariza isn't nearly as good as people give him credit for

Wide open threes thanks to Kobe and Gasol’s presence
Steals off crucial in-bounds passes that were less to do with him being super-aware and a defensive genius, and more to do with poor coaching decisions on who is in-bounding the ball and that player’s poor decision to try and force the ball to a player that really had no business being forced the ball.
Thats all Ariza has on Batum. They both can get out on the fast break and streak to the hoop with nice dunking finishes, and not that I’ve seen a great deal of Ariza, but Batum’s TWO posterizations of Gasol this year are more impressive than watching Ariza throw down an open jam from a (CRINGE) masterful pass from Kobe or Fish.
They can both shoot the 3, they can both defend, they can both finish at the rim, and their both confident in their abilities. Only Batum shoots better from 3, and, thus far, knows his place to not always just hoist a 3 because he can. Batum also is a better FT shooter.

by pdxlifer on Jul 8, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I watched a ton of both guys last year. I think Nic and Ariza are a wash, player-wise...

Ariza has more bulk, which allows him to guard a wider range of body types effectively.

Nic has a more reliable offensive stroke (and is a19 year old baby, gonna get both bigger and better).

BOTH are terrific perimeter defenders.

In response to Mr. Snake’s rather wacky musing that this type of player might be a dime a dozen, ummmm, as soon as people stop wetting themselves about the prospect of giving away half the team for Tayshaun Prince, I might start to believe that. Fact is, there are COMPARATIVELY FEW perimeter defensive players in the NBA, which drives up the price if you value defense.

Nic is gonna be an all star someday, certainly an all star defender.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

............... I forgot to add: BOTH can run the break with extreme effectiveness, which is not to be overlooked — 'cept I just did.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and I guess Mr. Snake was just agreeing with Mr. AS11OSU...

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent points all, Timbo

Not to mention that Nic has amazing court vision / BBIQ – especially for a 19-year old and great composure. I see a very bright future for our young French hearthrob (name check for Sophia).

by DonkeyShins on Jul 8, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The thing that Nic does have over Ariza is a handle.

draft the stache

by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you factor in Nic's age, he may well emerge as a truly amazing player...

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even with your sun glasses

your vision is perfectly clear regarding your take on both Batum and Prince.

Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave

Also: COMCAST SUCKS!

by TwoDeep on Jul 8, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

basketball-reference time

Do you want to see how 1st year Ariza compares to 1st year Batum and compare that to what Ariza did this year?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=wintC

A few things jump off the page. Batum doesn’t take free throws. Batum will shoot the three. Batum is twice the shot blocker that Ariza is. Other than that they are eerily similar.

by HardCorvallis on Jul 8, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

except Batum is a far, far more efficient scorer.

draft the stache

by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batum sitting in a corner shooting wide open 3's

is efficient, but Ariza wasn’t that player back then in New York.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batum will be an all star?

I think there is an outside chance Batum becomes Bruce Bowen, or even Shane B. but an all star? I think your remembering the 7-8 great games Nic had and not the 78 so so to poor. (yes, i know he is a 19 yr old rookie, but usually All Stars show they are better than their rookie peers.)

by bad karma on Jul 8, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Disagree, KP Corleone

What Batum brings is very close to what Ariza does, already.

IMO, Ariza will get exposed in Houston.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You might be right

Perhaps I am a little high on Ariza (though defense/intangibles guys with his PER and WP48 are hard to come by). Much of my experience watching Ariza was during the playoffs, I will admit – when he played far better than he did during the regular season.

I saw just about every game Batum played, though, and although I like his potential, I’m not nearly as sold on his abilities right NOW as a defensive stopper.

He’s plays defensive really well for a 20 year old kid, and he looks like one day he will be a really good defender. But IMO right now, he’s not.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Jul 8, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think part of the reason you see guys like Ariza/Bowen/Battier/etc getting MLE type contracts....

Is that their specialty is complimenting superstars. A team that doesn’t have a legit all star or two isn’t going to go out and drop 8 mil/year on a guy like Ariza. Ariza isn’t a top option on a good team, its the fact that he can be that 4th or 5th offensive option and still effect the game in other ways that make guys like him so valuable. Teams that want this type of complimentary player likely already have a lot of money tied up in their star players. Teams that don’t have true stars don’t want to waste a bunch of their money on a complimentary player with no stars to compliment. I think the Battier/Pietrus’ of the league are undervalued as far as how much they get paid, but its the market value. Doesn’t make them any less important to a team that has 2 or 3 legit all stars like we hope the Blazers will someday. Its true that complimentary players aren’t very expensive, but I think you can count the good ones in the nba using just two hands. And Nic has the chance to be at the top of that particular list as far as talent goes…

The Bedger formally known as ????????

by Rudiculous on Jul 8, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They may not be expensive

but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re extremely easy to come by, and you can get one just about every offseason. With our team, we’d have no problem finding one if Batum were to be traded (for a franchise point guard).

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You might be right...

I dont count that many that provide more than Batum did his rookie year. Probably less than 10 in my estimation, and Batum is a 19 year old rookie. To clarify I am not talking guys that are a top 3 option on their team offensively, which Batum never will be. Of players that play good D, hit open 3’s, and can be 4th or 5th fiddle to some stars while still being making a difference, the list isn’t super long and Batum is probably already top 10 on that list and he is just a baby. I am too lazy to think up names though, I am sure with some effort you could prove me wrong on that. But off the top of my head, players that fit the description and are better than Batum include:

Battier
Posey
Pietrus
Ariza
Bowen(2 years ago that is)

I am sure there are more, just too lazy to think them up right now…

The Bedger formally known as ????????

by Rudiculous on Jul 8, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Raja Bell

The Bedger formally known as ????????

by Rudiculous on Jul 8, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

That’s why Ariza signing with Houston doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Batum looks like he has good potential but there are a lot of players out there who can fill his niche. Don’t get me wrong. I think the blazers have a good player in Batum but he can easily be replaced by an MLE guy.

I would trade him and outlaw/webster for a chance to get Odom through a sign and trade. He brings veteran leadership as he was the locker room leader and not Kobe. He can play on the ball as a point forward or play off the ball as a low post threat when they play Aldridge as a center.

With him starting he could be a constant triple double threat. I’m pretty sure he would be averaging 15 pts, 10 rebs and 5 assists a night if given starter minutes. Plus he is available since negotiations with LA are falling apart.

by tidiespi64 on Jul 8, 2009 5:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

completely agree with as11osu about Rudy.

First, Rudy now knows what skills he needs to work on this summer to make himself even more versatile in the NBA. We know by all reports that he has been working hard on his weaknesses all summer thus far.

Second, until Bayless shows us anything in a regular game situation, he is a #11 or #12 player on the roster after Victor Claver. One game of 23 points does not a career make.

So that leaves us at my list for the most important Blazers in our future in order:
Roy
LMA
Oden
Batum (only because he has been given the freedom to start)
Przybilla (in the past PA has stated he will go to the luxury tax to keep a winning team)
Rudy (has ball handling skills but they weren’t asked of him last year)
Blake
Outlaw
Webster (only because of the constant injury, but above Bayless because of experience)
Bayless (great work ethic, lets see if he has learned point guard skills this next year)
Freeland
Koponen
Claver

Chemistry, Experience, and Youth exceed Free Agent possibilities available.

by wa_conner on Jul 8, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree with you on this one.

Not only is this a topic that arises naturally out of the last one, but it has the return of the real Dave.

The thrust of the topic is not who we can or should trade. It is trying to identify who will be key to this team’s success 2 years down the road. It’s pretty hard not to agree with Dave on the first 3 guys. After that is where it gets interesting. All in all, I agree with Dave’s viewpoint. The only thing I would add is that all things are relative. That’s why Dave noted that his was not a listing in order or importance.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jul 8, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I very much agree.

The top 4 are the same as my top 4. Bayless is very pivotal, as either our PG of the future or another lottery bust. Przybilla becomes less essential each year assuming Greg gets better, so though I think we’d be fools to part with him this year, I think you’re right about his future role.

by austinpwnz on Jul 8, 2009 12:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

In my top 5 yesterday I also had Batum & not Rudy

It was just for this reason. In 2 years I see Batum being a top tier SF in this league. I love Rudy’s game & want him to be here as well.Batum was shooting the corner three this year because that is what he was told to do.Lets wait 2 more years on the kid,it is my belief the people who want to trade him now will be glad we didn’t.

by We-B-Dunkin on Jul 8, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

aside from dominating summer league

which is glorified 1v1… what has bayless done to deserve this praise?

unable to shoot – check
unable to pass – check
couldn’t beat out sergio for minutes – check

He’s a great athlete… OK. If you’re a NBA point guard and you cant shoot or pass… you’re riding pine?

I know there’s no debate w/ the bayless fanbase, just theater… but try. please.

blah blah blah blah lame comment - lame commenter

by Bandwagon Butcher on Jul 8, 2009 1:05 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

use more elipsises (elipsi?), thx

blah blah blah blah lame comment - lame commenter

by Bandwagon Butcher on Jul 8, 2009 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

blah, blah, blah. Bayless played pretty decent while Blake was injured last year(15 PER, higher than Hedo actually ;-) ) and while he wasn’t starting he was finishing more than Sergio. Sergio was important with the 2nd unit last year because he helped Rudy adjust. Outside of Blake’s time injured Bayless only got spot minutes and didn’t excel in them. That has nothing to do with how he could play in longer stretches. He’s got all the skills, everyone on the team and management raves about him and there is no reason to think that once he adjusts to the NBA that he won’t be great.

by danielfarrell on Jul 8, 2009 5:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed.

Let’s wait for him to show something – anything – before declaring that he will become our starting PG this year or that he is part of the “big 4”.

Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave

Also: COMCAST SUCKS!

by TwoDeep on Jul 8, 2009 6:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

By "show something" I mean in the way of PG skills.

He’s obviously showed he’s a terrific driver and finisher.

Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave

Also: COMCAST SUCKS!

by TwoDeep on Jul 8, 2009 6:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In his longer stints

IMO, he showed he can pass. Many times he looked for the cutter while driving to the hoop. He made passes I didn’t expect him to make, instead of going for the layup.

I still can’t understand why Bayless has become this polarizing figure. People get all snarky with their comments about the “Bayless Fanbase”. Why? Shouldn’t everyone here hope he pans out? The haters sound more like, well, haters.

It seems some of you would rather he fail, than succeed.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I'm not aiming this at you TwoDeep, specifically

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batum

I totally agree with Batum. I think he gets lost in talks about the blazers future, probably because he jumped on the scene much earlier than anyone would have thought and that he goes about it so quietly. This is probably because he was held back since Nate does that with all his young players. (If Nate was the coach before Roy and Aldridge came to town, I don’t think you would have seen them get the minutes they got their first year in the league)

When you talk about potential and upside, Nic Batum has more upside than anyone outside of Oden (man I hope he stays healthy). This is why Nic is included in all the trade talks.

I would give up Rudy and/or Outlaw in a heart beat if it meant keeping Batum and getting a proven starter in return.

by epalms on Jul 8, 2009 1:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm confused

I literally haven’t seen a single trade scenario proposed anywhere on BE in the last month that involved Batum. I would take most of your post and just swap “Batum” for “Rudy.” Then we’d be in agreement.

Though I would not give up NIc without getting a superstar in return.

I wanna be Brandon Roy when I grow up!

by dagraffman on Jul 8, 2009 2:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

how do you get a super star

for a dude that scores 5 pts a game?

by bad karma on Jul 8, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Top 3 on the list are obvious, #4 on the list is the future starting PG

The man running our offense and defending the player that is running the opposing teams offense should be in the top 4. It’s just hard to put a name there because it is hard to project if Bayless will be there or another player (Hinrich, Sessions, Mills, Harris…).

To me this is why it is so important we get an upgrade at PG this off-season. We don’t think Blake can be #4 and we’re not sure if Bayless can become #4. If the weakest part of our starting 5 is the guy who is supposed to run the offense and help other players get easier opportunites… it is easy to see us falling short of our goal.

by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 1:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

first of all...

how did the blazers end up ranking so high in rebounding when all our guys at the 4 aren’t prime rebounders? are greg and przy that good?

second, i see Fernandez as having the potential to achieve star sixth-man status in the manner of manu (i know manu started quite a few years, and sustained injuries too! hopefully not repeated here), perhaps make an all-star appearance, and be the fourth cog. the key here is his capacity for playmaking- on/off ball, passing, and the 3 ball with a hand in his face.

Roy, LMA, Oden, Rudy.

"We didn’t pick Blair because of his history of fat-assery" -BlazerTag

by 5212872 on Jul 8, 2009 2:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes x2

I wanna be Brandon Roy when I grow up!

by dagraffman on Jul 8, 2009 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes, Greg and Przy are that good (at rebounding)

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

some more thoughts whilst at it...

Blake is completely underrated. His deficiencies are quite evident, but the truth is that this last year the offense (at least) ran substantially better with Blake in. Actually, perhaps some stat hounds want to prove me wrong (stats are fine and helpful), i wouldn’t really know cuz this opinion of mine is just based on rewatching a lot of this last seasons games, so… yeah.

(for the record, im hoping for Hinrich)

and i agree about looking forward to Greg having a run at the most improved award. at least most improved blazer.

"We didn’t pick Blair because of his history of fat-assery" -BlazerTag

by 5212872 on Jul 8, 2009 2:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Great-great points on Joel and Nic

and on Bayless too, I think… Rec’s.

Rudy & Nic

by k04a on Jul 8, 2009 3:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll rec it too 'cuz I agree with everything you stated.

Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave

Also: COMCAST SUCKS!

by TwoDeep on Jul 8, 2009 6:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW

If Joel opts out next year, he will be an UFA, which meas we won’t have the right to match any offer he recieves. We will be able to pay him the most because of his bird rights, but he can leave the team without ever giving them the ability to match an offer he gets from another team if he chooses.

by usmcr3049 on Jul 8, 2009 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I realize he will be an UFA,

but I put forth my reasons why I think we will match any offer he receives and why I think he will take our offer and stay.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 8, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well written post and I love Joel, but I'm not sure you're right

Joel could decide he wants to start for less money. Blazers could decide we can’t afford to pay fair market for Joel if he is getting limited minutes backup up Oden. Joel could get a huge offer from another team. I’m not nearly as certain that Joel is with us in 3 years.

by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Joel is like the insurance policy on your house,

you may dislike the price but you don’t think twice about writing the check.

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 8, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have my doubts about Joel being here. Are we all working under the assumption no high value free agent will sign in PDX?

We’re going to re-sign our two best players at the bottom of an economic downturn.
Both LA and Roy would probably be wise to follow in the footsteps of Lebron, Wade and Bosh. However, I think Brandon would take max years as long as we don’t fudge around on the increases. (90 over 6 starting around 13.5) Whatever we sign Aldridge for will be a relative bargain for a player with his talents. If we can get him at less than the max that’s great,(80 over 6 at 12.5 to begin) but we would be foolish not to lock him down for max years. Neither of them are replaceable to the extent that we would like to have three sure fire threats. And, apparently we’re not metropolitan enough to pull even a mediocre small forward for 20% more than he’s worth.

Oden’s developing himself out of a max contract.
Again, we’re going to be re-signing him soon, next summer hopefully, Even a modest improvement is no guarantee of a max contract. Let’s say he pulls 6 years 70 million. Even if he doesn’t live up to hall of fame expectations, he still will be young enough to draw trade interest. And, most likely, performing above league average at the 5 for a reasonable price.

We just drafted everyone’s replacements.
Can’t live without Nic? The thought of Bayless putting up 20 a night for Golden
State haunts your dreams? Not to worry. One or more current Blazers will come
back to bite us in the ass, and it most likely will be Rudy. But, sometimes them’s
the breaks. Drazen Petrovich was never going to usurp Drexler. Jermaine O’Neal
wasn’t going to beat out Sheed. It’s good to hype young talent, and better to put
your team in a position to capitalize on their strengths. Travis, Joel and Blake
will most likely not be with the team after this year. Those three players will
demand roughly $20m in 2010-2011. If we can keep and develop 1 of our 3
"prospects" (Nic, Rudy, Bayless) I would be happy. In all likelihood 4 of those 6
players will be gone if/when we win a championship. Here’s the plus. By keeping
the foreign players oversees and drafting known commodity college players we
have roughly five guys that could come in for less than a million a year.

wanderlust

by gatajohn on Jul 8, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great-great points on Joel and Nic

and on Bayless too, I think… Rec’s.

Rudy & Nic

by k04a on Jul 8, 2009 3:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This List...

…shows why it’s too early to start trading guys away. We just don’t know who the key players will be in two years, all we can do is guess. Batum looks like he has a very bright future ahead of him, but maybe Bayless would look that way too if I’d had as much time on the court. Webster could be plagued with injuries and long recovery times or he could be the guy who shoots us past LA. Rudy could be the unhappy, underused second-fiddle to Brandon Roy… but there are some great players in this league (Ginobili, for example) who give 25-30 minutes a night and do very well.

My point is that any of these guys could develop into filling a key role that we need. A couple years ago would you have thought we’d give up Jack for a rookie PG (to ride the bench, no less), or that we’d all be looking at our watches waiting for Outlaw to be traded? Or that our completely unknown French rookie, who looked like a deer in the headlights in the summer league, would become one of our top-tier assets. A lot can change in a year.

by JonathanPDX on Jul 8, 2009 4:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The massive gulf...

Between Roy, Oden and Aldridge and the rest doesn’t make any of the others less likely to be moved for players that can perform now in my mind.

I believe established players trump developing prospects at key need positions for playoff contenders.

by TheMadKiwi on Jul 8, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hit the nail on the head

great post! I like what you said about Pryz. He would be great in a Blazer uni for the rest of his career…

Does anyone else see a little Sabonis in him?

"be where you are when you're there"

by BLAZER_FAN_199 on Jul 8, 2009 6:10 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, they're both white...

Sabonis…………………………….. Przybilla
7’3" and 290 lbs…………………….7’1" and 240 lbs
Outstanding passer……………….. Willing passer
Excellent shooter……………………Has no shot other than the dunk and layup
Crappy knees………………………..Healthy knees
Took a towel for the team…………..Took a groin shot for the team

by MiledAnimal on Jul 8, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

If you see any Sabonis in Przybila

then you didn’t watch any Sabonis and only saw pictures of him. Outside of the “large white guy with a Euro name” thing, they couldn’t be less alike. Sabonis was a solid defender, but a transcendent offensive player. Joel is a great defender, but a terrible offensive player.

No offense to Joel, but Joel on his best day could barely hold Sabas’s jock in his prime. He was that good.

by Royster on Jul 8, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and his prime was long before he played in Portland

His best year’s in Portland were far better than Joel’s ceiling, and those years were probably at 60% of his former greatness.

If Sabonis had come over here in ’88 when the Soviets allowed him to play outside Russia instead of going to Spain, he would be an NBA hall of famer.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dang

After reading through this post and everyone’s comments, it’s reassuring that we are debating how good our team is and not which 4 players we wish we could dump.

But c’mon everyone… Dave even said that this list isn’t the best players, they are the most pivotal to OUR CURRENT team.

He never said that Batum is better than Rudy… Actually, in reference to Batum, go back and read:

He may not turn out to be the best player among the remaining Blazers, but he could well turn out to be the most important.

Our goal is to put together a team that gels and executes and will achieve the most success possible. So don’t get your feelings hurt if your favorite Blazer wasn’t included among the top 4. It’s no downplay to them.

by pdxer in dfw on Jul 8, 2009 6:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah what gives?

"be where you are when you're there"

by BLAZER_FAN_199 on Jul 8, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rudy? What is up with Rudy?

Maybe I just overly idolize Spanish players.

I keep up on BE pretty regulalry and I recall that Rudy was a little perturbed—to what degree reports vary—over the Turkoglu thing but other than that, he seems very happy and Blazers seem very happy.

But now I read other posts making suggestions about Rudy’s ultimate fit—not from a talent standpoint but an emotional standpoint. I see in Dave’s post above things like: “I’m not sure where he fits in or where he wants to fit in” and “I can also see [a happy Blazers team] without [Rudy], whether by their choice or his.”

Outside of that Spanish report over Turkoglu, did I miss something to suggest Rudy is deeply unhappy? I feel like the mob opinion of Rudy Fernandez has suddenly turned on him, ignoring the fact he was a rookie and had an outstanding season. If Bayless had had the season that Rudy just enjoyed, we’d probably be talking about shinging an MVP trophy and talking about the Big 4.

What happened? What did I miss? I agree that Rudy is tradable and that his minutes are sort of in conflict with Batum’s and there is a potential struggle playing behind Roy. But these all seem like petty concerns after only one rookie season and a pretty blunt hit into the rookie wall along the way. These have been well and thoroughly discussed. It’s these subtle swipes at his emotional temperament that seem new to me.

Is it just me or is there a kind of subtle smearing going on with Rudy? And what did I miss?

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Jul 8, 2009 7:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It bothers me too...

Of all the players from last season other than BRoy, Rudy was, to me, the one who most exemplified the uprise of a young juggernaut in the making, because of his high BBIQ, his dynamism without the ball and his ability to get the three point shot off with a hand in his face. He even broke a fairly significant league record for three point shooting by a rookie. Most importantly, Rudy always represented insurance behind Brandon in the event of injury, which thankfully wasn’t an issue.
 
One of the reasons frequently given for his tradability (read expendability) is being in the unenviable spot playing behind Roy, but if my eyes didn’t deceive me, more often than not, Nate had him on the floor playing WITH Brandon at the end of games.

The negative buzz around Rudy lately is perplexing, which may result from the perception that too much talent/depth obviates the need for something to give; that one of the most tradable assets should go in order to make room for an “experienced veteran.”

Rudy the Rookie played like one as far as I’m concerned, which makes him pivotal in my opinion.

by balladofgregoden on Jul 8, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yes, I personally value keeping Rudy over Batum

This is nothing against the well heralded success of Nic’s rookie season. I just more appreciate the offensive skills and pure excitement that Rudy brings to the floor. He is one of the last players I want to see traded. Honestly, sometimes I think the main advantage Batum has over Rudy is the wrath of Sophia…. As, much as I appreciate pretty brunettes, I’ll take one for the team here, and tell is like it is.
:-)

by Berkeley on Jul 8, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I value them both equally

I’d trade Rex before Rudy and Bayless (sorry, Ben).

by DonkeyShins on Jul 8, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think many Blazer fans overrate Batum's defense

At best he’s ‘slightly above average’ right now. Maybe he’ll be great someday, maybe he won’t. His offense consists of shooting 3’s and although his 3-pt % is respectable, I worry that’s all he’s got.

I would take Marty over Batum all day long and twice on Thursday. His defense is better than you think it is and his offense has the potential to be Batum x10000000

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jul 8, 2009 7:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Also I still love Bayless

Not sure why everyone fell off the bandwagon so quickly

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jul 8, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Marty

might not ever be as quick after his troubles.

Batum can do more than shoot the 3. He takes guys on the baseline from time to time. He’s not exactly one to get plays drawn up for him anyway. Not yet. His job isn’t to create his own shot. His job is to play D. Keep a SF/SG defender out on the wing away from double teams, and if/when they do leave him for doubling one of our Big 3, that leaves him open to take an open corner 3, penetrate and finish, or pass inside if PF/C defender leaves their man to contest Batum’s open shot.

by pdxlifer on Jul 8, 2009 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not Everyone Was Ever On The Bayless Bandwagon

Those of you that love his “game” — I don’t understand. He is a Score-First guard that can’t score. Sure, he can air it up and throw it down, but that’s not a “game.” That’s Sports Center’s top plays of the day. The rest of the time he’s on the floor, however, he is pretty much predictable and easy for other teams to guard. His initial successes were countered by adjustments on how to play him — and they worked.

Those of you that love his potential — there are bouncers throughout the US that had NBA potential. If this is the point guard we are building our future around we are in desperate trouble. He will not take the pressure off of Brandon Roy until he has a reliable outside shot. Can he develop one? If he doesn’t have one yet — after years of shooting a basketball — I’m not too confident in his ability to get one.

The guy we need to think about is Brandon Roy — he is the type of player that can carry a team to a Championship on his back with a little help. Bayless is a hindrance, not the help we need. Trade him now while he still has some value, because after next year he might be impossible to move.

by Anim8rguy on Jul 8, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do we really need to start a point guard?

When the signing of Turkoglu seemed eminent, I speculated with friends that the losers would not be Rudy, but Blake and Bayless. Who was the point guard on the last Blazers championship team? Hollins? Twardzik?, Johnny Davis? Watch them again and you’ll notice that no one “ran” that team. It was a true team. I have faith that all our players are just as unselfish and can adapt with time to being used in multiple roles. If I were Nate, I wouldn’t want a free agent. I’d want our guys to grow into what they can become. I’d also teach them the triangle.

by mactastic on Jul 8, 2009 8:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Love this board

Mad respect for doing what you do dave n ben.

but uh….. WHERE’S OUR NEWS!!!!

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

"New Man Law: If you don't show up for the draft you don't get to come later if you're picked. If you believe in yourself, show up and sit there. If nobody else believes in you, take it and cry like a man...in front of the cameras."

-Dave

by faith on Jul 8, 2009 8:58 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

odom

tidespi said (regarding Batum):

“I would trade him and outlaw/webster for a chance to get Odom through a sign and trade. He brings veteran leadership as he was the locker room leader and not Kobe. He can play on the ball as a point forward or play off the ball as a low post threat when they play Aldridge as a center.”

Don’t forget that this article was about optimizing the Blazers in 2011, not toay.

By 2011 Odom will be so old, if he is still playing then he will be 30-40% of what he was at his peak.

by lsjogren on Jul 8, 2009 8:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

wouldn't that be special

having to deal with Kobe/Gasol/Batum/Outlaw on the lakers…no thanks

by pdxlifer on Jul 8, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

trades

“but uh….. WHERE’S OUR NEWS!!!!”

We should be HAPPY that KP and company are not making deals like chickens with their head cutoff since the Hedo thing fell through.

Remember, they have till Feb or until they sign Roy and Aldridge to new contracts to use their cap space.

And the experts agree that there are liable to be some good deals that emerge later in the summer as teams that need to economize give up some of their higher-priced players in lopsided trades.

by lsjogren on Jul 8, 2009 9:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

We should be HAPPY that KP and company are not making deals like chickens with their head cutoff since the Hedo thing fell through.

There’s other news than trades, which I presume was also meant there. When the Oden update came out this week, it was a big news story. The announcement of the upcoming salary cap drop is a giant story, and is available over in the fanposts, for example.

Remember, they have till Feb or until they sign Roy and Aldridge to new contracts to use their cap space.

Actually, it’s slightly different. They can sign Brandon and LMA anytime to extensions without any effect on their cap space (since the extensions won’t kick in until next season). Also, they could make trades to use the cap space all the way up to, and including, the 2010 draft, as long as it can clear immediately and not after the next contract year starts.

by Timmay! on Jul 8, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oden update?

What did I miss?

Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave

Also: COMCAST SUCKS!

by TwoDeep on Jul 8, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bill Bayno on courtside talking about Greg? Link to Barrett’s blog, which has the audio.

draft the stache

by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great audio. Many thanks.

I’m relieved that we have had a slew of guys in Columbus giving him guidance. Greg is a coachable guy by all accounts but he needs to be motivated to work hard (also by all accounts).

Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave

Also: COMCAST SUCKS!

by TwoDeep on Jul 8, 2009 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I went to search for the story

And wow, no wonder you missed it. That’s a crazy number of posts to wade through.

Here’s the main story.

Bill Bayno reported on Oden’s progress, since he’s spending a lot of time with Greg in Ohio. He detailed Greg’s process (Bayno is really happy so far), and invited Brian Grant to join in him Ohio, where they are putting Greg through the paces of dealing with an NBA-level defender (Grant) while trying to work on his stance and shot.

I was going to add the audio, but it looks like Cab just added it below (um, I mean above).

by Timmay! on Jul 8, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, that's good. Thank you for the report.

I was really concerned when Greg opted to leave Portland for the college life in Columbus and it appears Blazer brass was as well. To make sure he focused on basketball, they’ve sent a number of basketball professionals to his summer home (Grant, Bayno, Bayless and probably a couple others).

From what I’ve read and heard Greg seems very receptive to coaching but is lacking in self-motivation. Good move Blazers. I’d love to see Oden finally in shape … it could make a huge difference.

Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave

Also: COMCAST SUCKS!

by TwoDeep on Jul 8, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The fact that the Rasta Monsta is helping Greg train

Makes me so happy inside I could squeal like a little girl. That’s what Greg needs – a dedicated coach like Banyo plus a lunchbox 4/5 like Brian Grant to keep him working in the off-season. Not to mention that it’s good to see the organization giving Brian Grant something to keep his mind off his Parkinsons.

by DonkeyShins on Jul 8, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

cool,.... I got quoted :)

yeah I ment the other kind of news. who we signing, where’s greg (deveopment wise, cuz those stories r always fun especially when sesaons start and I’ve over hyped ..again) , who’s going to summer league (dave? ben? storyteller?) What’s up with our draftee, Is the west stacking back up again, would rasheed look good in green? (k maybe not that kind of news) but something …..

diffrent.

hedo hinrich kidd harris shaq oh my.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

"New Man Law: If you don't show up for the draft you don't get to come later if you're picked. If you believe in yourself, show up and sit there. If nobody else believes in you, take it and cry like a man...in front of the cameras."

-Dave

by faith on Jul 8, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Webster/Batum

“I would take Marty over Batum all day long and twice on Thursday.”

It shouldn’t be an either or. Both have huge potential.

by lsjogren on Jul 8, 2009 9:05 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

How about Marty v. Nic v. Trout

Not that I’m in any way, shape or form an Outlaw hater, but I feel that he’s somewhat the odd man out.

by DonkeyShins on Jul 8, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some of us have more trouble with forgiveness than others...
Greg Oden will be the biggest pivot of them all (excuse the pun).

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 9:07 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What about Bayless?

The ONLY way Bayless is a pivotal Blazer is if he proves he can play the point. Can someone direct me to a nicely thought out analysis of Bayless’ potential as a point guard? I am not convinced he has this potential but I would like to see others’ views. Does he have the skills? Can he run the offense? Can he pass well? Can he run the pick and roll? Can he hit a jump shot consistently? I have not seen ANY evidence that he can. He is great at getting to the rim…that’s it. In my opinion.

by mlsinpdx on Jul 8, 2009 10:06 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Damnit..

My head is going to explode if we don’t do something soon. I’m tired of speculation. The moratorium is over. There’s really no “wait until later this summer” that works for this team. You can’t bring in a veteran and hope to win our division if we don’t act soon. This is still a very young team. Whatever we do needs to happen well before training camp and preferably before summer league.

by halo_on on Jul 8, 2009 10:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Calm down CL.

The sky isn’t falling.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jul 8, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He just needs to accept that KP isn't a good GM when it comes to anything but the draft

Look at what other GM’s have gotten for Zach. KP is a one trick pony.

by tominhawaii on Jul 8, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahhh refreshing.

I feel like I should put five cents in the Lucy box.

by holder on Jul 8, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

rudy and martell

Martell would certainly qualify since he is (hopefully) coming off that injury and could even take starting small forward spot. Or sit out with a bad foot. That is pivotal.

But because Martell is such a ? at this point, I am going to agree with some of you and think Rudy can be the most pivotal. If he continues to improve his defense, I could see him starting at SF. Rudy’s D much better D in the late-season and playoffs than Outlaw.

If Rudy was at all upset with Hedo potentially signing, it was because Rudy sees himself as more of a facilitator than Portland seemed to give him credit for. I think Rudy was used too much as just a shooter running through screens. Rudy probably sees himself as a better creator than Hedo is being credit for and what was supposedly Hedo’s trait that attracted the Blazers. Rudy wants THAT role in offense. If he doesnt start at SF Nate should be sure to get him a lot of floor time with Roy.

If Rudy develops as a creator that can play a lot with Roy and he continues defensive improvement, I think that could be worth 3 more wins.

by merseykersey on Jul 8, 2009 10:29 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Pivitol Players.

The ones where their potential upsides and downsides decide the fate of this team.

Without Brandon, we instantly go from contender to pretender.
Without LA every single offensive possession is limited.
Without Greg, we lose our potential defense and rebound and our Great Hope.
Without Travis, we have only one player who can win us a game, and he (Brandon) can be doubled and triple-teamed.

Players where if they turn into anything its pure bonus, no pivot: (with the absolute no downside for them being horrible listed first.
Nic.
Rudy.
Joel.
Steve.
Bayless.
Martell.

JAWESOME!!

by TheOdenator on Jul 8, 2009 10:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Dave

Love the new BEdge logo, good decision.

Good point on Joel this morning on 95.5, I’ve been saying the same thing. If we can get good value for Joel, would it be smarter to do it this summer then sign a guy like Steven Hill before the season starts, or keep him until the trade deadline to make sure Oden breaks out like we think he will?

"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups

by Kelsoballa on Jul 8, 2009 10:34 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I hear Minnesota could use a Center and he's a native son

Not advocating a trade, but Kevin Love and a 1st round pick would be intriguing.

by ralphzillo on Jul 8, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

IMO, Minny says nada to that idea

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 8, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

They’re too young, and wouldn’t give up a foundational piece like K Love for an aging center. It would certainly improve them next year, and Przy would be a great fit next to Jefferson – but Minny doesn’t care about next year.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Jul 8, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You never forget your first time...

First time posting after lurking in the bushes for a year or so. Anyway. Hello!
On to the topic…

1. Greg Oden
I believe, even while acknowledging the impossibility of the situation, that if Greg had immediately been all that we think he can be (monster defense, efficient with given looks on offense—at the very least a top-5 center in this league) this past season, the Blazers could have competed for the championship. Put another way: if Greg becomes that player, and the rest of the team, the rest of the organization, remains stagnant for 2 years, I believe that the Blazers will compete for the championship in 2011. Which is not to say that I believe the team should stay stagnant. If the rest of the team is not improved in 2 years, the Blazers will have made many, many mistakes. A home run with Greg washes it all away and more. If he’s a swing-and-a-miss, a lot of other things have to go right.

2. LaMarcus Aldridge
Dave summed it up nicely. As good as Brandon is, I don’t think he can carry the load for a team favored to win the championship. On offense, LMA has to become option 1b. next to Brandon, instead of option 2.

3. Brandon Roy
What else needs to be said? Hmm. How about this? How about: I want him to always be the leader of this team. Even if Greg exceeds expectations and becomes a top-5 all-time center, even if Dwayne Wade falls in love with Portlandia and decides he needs to be a Blazer (financial fortunes be damned), even if Lebron, Kobe, CP3, Reggie Miller, and …..Manute Bol combine forces to Voltron up the NBA (of course in Portland—big skier and kitesurfer, that Voltron), I want Roy to lead the way.

4. Batum / Webster
Yes, I am a cheat. But I find it hard to separate these two, and can’t place anyone else in this spot. These are the only guys currently on the roster whom I can see starting on a Blazers championship team. Which one? Lots of arguments over Batum, but I think one thing consistently overlooked is that there were very low expectations for Nic before last season. Did he play well? Of course. Did he amaze me? Sure. Did I enjoy the movie Mean Girls? I did. But how much of my enjoyment was caused by the fact that I expected it to be horrendous? Even towards the end of the season, when Nic made a great play my thoughts were still more “He wasn’t even expected to make the team!” than “He’s a great player!” Mean Girls is a funny movie. But is it that funny?

Martell would seem to me a safe bet, except that, at the moment, he’s the furthest thing from it. The whole Hedo adventure told me one thing: the Blazers have little faith in Martell’s foot. If he’s healthy, I think he has the shot to fit perfectly in the offense, and the body to be more than adequate on defense .

5. The Rest
Love what Rudy brings, but, with Roy here, I’m not convinced he’s not move valuable to other teams. Bayless would be great if he develops into our “point guard,” but his mindset seems to be “I’m option 1, not option 3 or 4.” He either defers to others, or he actualizes himself, but not both. Steve, Joel, and Travis: all good players, but not starters on a team that brings a trophy back to Portland.

Fin

Pragmatism?!--is that all you have to offer?

by Guildenstern on Jul 8, 2009 11:45 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I demand royalties!

Nowhere did you credit me with the Voltron idea. Booooo!

;-)

by DonkeyShins on Jul 8, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Before I forget

Great first-time post. Welcome to BlazersEdge!

by DonkeyShins on Jul 11, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Value of LaMarcus

New commenter here, but longtime BE reader and Blazer fan. I finally got around to getting an account just to make this post. It’s an idea that’s been nagging me for a week or so, and I’m interested in hearing the opinions of you other well-informed fellow fans.

I think the biggest way this team could improve is by getting a top-flight PG. It seems like a lot of people out there think we could get a CP3, D-Will, D-Harris type with some combination of Outlaw, Rudy, Webster, Blake, Bayless, and money savings (really anyone but Batum). Those people are crazy. At a minimum it’s going to take one of our Big 3 plus a few of those other pieces.

Of our Big 3, I wonder about LaMarcus. He’s great, he’s going to be awesome, and I’m a big fan. But … doesn’t it seem a lot easier to replace a great PF than pick up a great PG? I know David Lee and Paul Milsap have been debated by Blazer fans, but both those guys are starters and as long as we have Aldridge, we need a backup. I think Bass is a good option, although my personal preference is Turiaf (who’s a west coast guy to boot). But hard to get too excited about a backup PF.

Now let me throw out an example scenario. Would you rather have Aldridge and a mid-range PG like Sessions, or Lee/Milsap and CP3/D-Will? I’d take the latter in a heartbeat. I’d probably do the same if the PG was Harris or Rondo, but that might be as far as I’d go.

To get there, we’d be trading Aldridge and parts (Outlaw’s my preference) for the PG. Then we’d be offering all our cap space (renouncing Freeland and Koponen first) to Lee or Milsap. The risk, of course, is that the Knicks or Jazz would match, but that’s a big maybe given their cost would be twice what our cost would be. Maybe we could scare them with those plans and then do a sign and trade with them, throwing in a spare part, to ensure their cooperation.

So, what do you guys think?

by scottacoma on Jul 8, 2009 12:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Championships tend to come more from offensive bigs and SGs than from great PGs

There do seem to be a lot of pretty good offensive PF’s out there right now, so I can kind of see your point. However, I think LMA is developing into someone who is such an elite offensive talent that he lifts us to a level we couldn’t get to with David Lee, Paul Millsap, Villanueva, Boozer, etc. (In fact, if I had to replace him, I’d be looking at Frye in that mix.)

I would love to see Deron working with Roy and Oden, so if that was a possibility (can’t see how it is), I’d go for it. I don’t think Chris Paul and Roy work as well and Devin Harris isn’t worth LMA.

All that glitters isn't chrome

by hoopla-pdx on Jul 8, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hate to strengthen Utah by offering them good players in a trade.

I love D-Will and I really want him as a Blazer. I don’t see how we get him, though, unless we offer them enough to make them serious contenders in our very own conference.

I agree that the place to strengthen the team is at point guard. – Elgin

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

kirilenko

anybody with interest in kirilenko?? jazz need to cut payroll. they probably want to move boozer, in fact there was a rumor about boozer to the bulls, hinrich to blazers and cap space to utah floated on the radio yesterday, but Kirilenko makes 17mm, would cost us cap space plus outlaw and filler. then next year, we would have the expriing contract to trade if there was a chance to upgrade. downside is he has no 3 pt shot, but fills the other boxes on stat line. there really is no one else looking to slash right now. new orleans has next year’s highest projected payroll. they can’t trade cp3, because of the poison pill contract. thier 3 is peja, who is done. they want to move chandler. i say go kirilenko, he can even be moved after 12-15 if we want. then cp3 will be on his new contract, and we could move kirilenko for cp3 and whatever contract new orleans wanted to be rid of. he’s valuable just for that.

by shallwemaui on Jul 8, 2009 1:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Kirilenko in 4 words: "Hot wife, disgusting contract."

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 8, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade Pryz ???

TBI would be crazy for thinking of trading the Vanilla Gorilla…. Who will play at center when the Oden expirement is finally over.

by NoKoolAdeForMe on Jul 8, 2009 2:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oden will

but I don’t want to deal Przybilla until next season at the earliest. And – NEVER would be my first preference. – Elgin

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Jul 9, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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