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Salary Cap 2010-11 Warnings: Potential help to PDX now?


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837&campaign=rss&source=NBAHeadlines

The NBA has warned it's team that after falling about $1 million this year (to 57.7 million), the salary cap could plumment next summer to as low as 50.4 to 53.6 million, putting a damper on the 2010 free agent bonanza (and possibly leading to some early unexpected extensions THIS summer?).

Could this possibly help Portland in it's quest to find an unbalanced trade?  Maybe.  Consider the case of some random team trying to shed salary for the summer of 2010 and assuming they need to be about 17 million under the cap to offer a max deal.  So they have been thinking all along they need to get down to around $40 million in salaries (assuming a 57 million cap number).  But bam, now the cap is predicted to drop 3.5 to 7 million below that level.  All of a sudden, they could see themselves need to shed an extra chunk of change to clear that coveted space.  Could this be an opportunity for Portland to swoop in this summer or before the deadline and grab a player that might otherwise have never been made available?

Who knows, but it seems at least plausible, doesn't it?

9 recs  |  Comment 58 comments

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Devin Harris...come to papa

the expiring contracts of Blake and Outlaw would get it done

(reel him in, KP)

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 12:05 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

This might effect the Nets in the opposite way.

They were close to having enough for 3 max FA’s before. Right now, they’re pretty much looking 2 square in the face, with Harris as their draw.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

2 is not doable if the projections are right.

even waiving Dooling and Najera and renouncing Boone puts them at 27.5 million (7 players, 5 roster charges), assumes no 2010 1st rounder. Even If the cap come in at the high end (54 million), you would need to be at about 21 million to offer 2 max deals at roughly 16.5 each. Only guy they could move to clear that extra 6.5 million is Harris

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not by my count...

PG: Devin Harris (9.0)
SG: Courtney Lee (1.3) / Terrence Williams (1.8)
SF: Chris Douglas-Roberts (0.9)
PF:
C: Brook Lopez (2.4)

= 15 Million Owed

LBJ + Bosh = 33 Million

33 + 15 = 48… That still will most likely leave 5 million left over for one near MLE and a bunch of veteran minimums tagging along for an easy Championship run.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

here's my math

Devin Harris 8,981,000
Keyon Dooling 500,000 (amount if waived)
Yi Jianlian 4,050,499
Eduardo Najera 2,500,000 (amount if waived)
Brook Lopez 2,413,320
Sean Williams 2,502,328
Courtney Lee 1,352,640
Chris Douglas-Roberts 854,389
(Terrence Williams) 1,845,400
roster charges (5) ~2,500,000

total: 27,499,xxx

I suppose they could decide not to pick up the 4th year options on Williams and Yi, but remember they have to make that choice before THIS season starts, and it would make those guys UFAs in 2010. In that case, add another 1 million in roster charges, so it knocks 5.5 off the total, putting them at 22 million. 22+33 = 55, which is over the high-end projection by a million or so, and the low end projection by a full 5 million

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unlike the Knicks

I’d see next to no trouble unloading Dooling and Najera and their tiny contracts in comparison to what the Knicks have to deal with. They’ll also have a lottery pick coming their way on top of Yi and Boone in which they’ll have even more leverage in unloading bad contracts. Getting 2 max FA’s with Harris should be their #1 priority at this point, as they’ll be the only team now capable of making that kind of pitch to LBJ and Bosh. That’s one heckuva team.

PG: Harris / Vet Min
SG: Lee / Williams
SF: LBJ / CDR’
PF: Bosh / Lottery Pick?
C: Lopez / Vet Min

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but your point is taken

the Nets could just decide they have to try for one. And so could the Knicks, who are likely devastated by this news, as the only way they can clear enough room for 2 max free agents is by getting someone to take Curry or Jeffries off their hands

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and jeffries alone probably isn't enough

given all the roster charges they will incur by being down to only 5 players. They really have to move Curry to be able to offer 2 max deals.

God I hope no NBA team takes Curry off their hands, but I just know someone (Memphis) will.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Donnie Walsh should take my advice.
"The Heat need a low-post scorer, though, with restricted free-agent David Lee making a lot of sense down in South Beach. It, however, would take a gigantic sign-and-trade deal to make Lee joining the Heat a reality, but a frontline tandem of him and Jermaine O’Neal would be a nice setup. Lee would play center on offense and power forward on defense, while O’Neal would play power forward on offense and center on defense.

Anyhow, here’s my idea of getting Lee in Miami.

1. On 7/8/2009, the New York Knicks re-sign Lee to a six-year, $60,000,000 contract, with non-escalating salaries of $10,000,000 annually and an early termination option he can exercise after the fourth season.

2. The Knicks and Heat subsequently complete the following trade.

FROM MIAMI & TO NEW YORK
C Mark Blount ($7,967,375)
PF Udonis Haslem ($7,100,000)
SF Dorell Wright ($2,887,165)
SG Yakhouba Diawara ($945,000)

Outgoing: $18,899,540 X 125% + $100,000 = 23,724,425
Incoming: $22,075,486

FROM NEW YORK & TO MIAMI
C Eddy Curry ($10,500,423) {15% Trade Kicker}
PF David Lee ($10,000,000) {Base-Year Compensation Player}

Outgoing: $15,500,423 X 125% + $100,000 = $19,475,528
Incoming: $18,899,540

3. The Knicks receive four players who’ve got expiring contracts, which helps the team in its objective of clearing as much salary cap space as is possible for the summer of 2010. In this proposed deal, the Knicks cut $11,276,863 in salary obligations for the 2010-2011 season. Yet, for the upcoming season, Udonis Haslem is the only one who’s got any on-court value; thus, Donnie Walsh would release Mark Blount, Dorell Wright, and Yakhouba Diawara.

If Walsh wants to have enough future salary cap space flexibility to sign two maximum-level free-agents in 2010, then packaging Curry with Lee is of the utmost importance this off-season. Walsh will also need to move Jared Jeffries for someone who’s got an expiring contract, with Wilson Chandler probably being the sweetner in such a deal. Oh, and on a final note, the Knicks should just let Nate Robinson walk—even if it gets nothing in return for him."

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/6/8/902464/rumor-sergio-rodriguez-to-the#16705058

by AK1984 on Jul 8, 2009 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't Lee have more trade value if they just wait for someone to give him an offer sheet?

No one’s going to give him a 60 million dollar contract. He’s likely to get a much lower offer, which the Knicks would match. Then trade him and Curry for a similar package.

Same deal with Nate Robinson, then package him with Jeffries.

Something they’re probably going to have to do in each trade to make it worth it to the other team, is take way more contract back this year that’s expiring, then obviously pay the $3 million on top of that.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

New York must be proactive here.

1. David Lee should work with the New York Knicks to find a suitor for his services via a sign-and-trade deal, for that’s the most practical method for all parties. Since the Miami Heat have to win this season — so as to appease Mr. Dwyane Wade — and the Knicks desperately want to slash future payroll obligations by dumping Eddy Curry, that trade proposal of mine is a win-win situation for both organizations.

2. Wilson Chandler isn’t needed in a future that includes LeBron James running the show, so using him as a means to dump Jared Jeffries is a shrewd move. A trade of Jeffries and Chandler to the Sacramento Kings would slash $9,014,282 from the 2010-2011 books, while providing the folks in the capital of California some more depth at the forward positions.

3. Either Nate Robinson agrees to sign the one-year, $2,911,077 qualifying offer or he signs a offer sheet with another team that goes unmatched.

That, folks, is how you clear cap space.

by AK1984 on Jul 8, 2009 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and you can really only attempt such a move

if you are New York or the L*kers. No one else would be brash (stupid) enough to do it, knowing they could easily be left at the altar and have a team consisting of D leaguers and has beens. but you can pull this silly ploy if you are New York, because you know SOMEONE good will come take your money. It might not be LeBron, but you will always be able to spend your cash on the next tier, who will gladly come running.

Such are the inherent advantages of being the big market teams

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, here's the outcome in my scenario.

2010 CAP HOLDS
Danilio Gallinari ($3,304,560)
Jordan Hill ($2,224,600)
Toney Douglas ($892,500)
9 Minimum-Level Cap Holds ($4,262,436)

Total ($10,684,096)

Not only would that leave enough salary cap space to sign two maximum-level free agents, but it’d also leave some extra spending money to fill out the roster for the 2010-2011 season.

by AK1984 on Jul 8, 2009 1:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I, too, am not a Jordan Hill fan, but he can fill the Chris Wilcox void ...

in New York without causing any damage. Besides, the 2009 NBA Draft was mostly crap; therefore, reaching on Hill with a mid-range lottery pick wasn’t a complete mistake. A “complete mistake” is taking Mouhamed Sene with the 10th pick in the 2006 NBA Draft.

by AK1984 on Jul 8, 2009 1:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rick Bucher on Wheels at work

Bucher had an interesting take on Wheels. He said, “be careful what you ask for.” To paraphrase him, “If you are hoping for the free-wheeling Harris of New Jersey, you might not get him. You might get more of the Harris in Dallas, who struggled to figure out when to shoot and when to pass.”

Not sure what to make of those comments, but definitely interesting.

by upper left corner on Jul 8, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Harris had

a really nice final year in Dallas

seems like an observation that does not hold a lot of water

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

I will talk about DeJuan Blair no more forever

by jonestr on Jul 8, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is great news for us

and for any team that wasn’t planning on having cap room the summer of 2010. This is especially significant in terms of Hinrich’s availability. Chicago needs to get down to have the cap space, and that 9 million is absolutely vital if they even want to dream about the max FA’s. Of course myself and others thought that deal was going to go down no matter what.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 12:06 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

yep. It seems like the quintessential no-brainer deal.

draft the stache

by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

so its Wed.. when is it happening Cab?

by GreatOden'sRaven on Jul 8, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it would eat up a million in cap space… so I assume it would happen whenever Chicago/Utah get their act together and we use our cap space to acquire a different player, THEN doing the trade.

draft the stache

by Cablinasian on Jul 8, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How does the timing of when Roy and ALdridge sign an extension matter

I know it wouldn’t affect our cap space even if they signed tomorrow what I was interested in was would them not signing a extension until next summer cost them up to 10 million over the course of their contract?

"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein

by Garden of ODEN on Jul 8, 2009 12:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

no affect

no matter when they sign, the actual amount of a max deal is calculated based on the numbers of the starting year of the deal. an estimated placeholder amounts is used in the interim. Regardless of whether they sign tomorrow or next summer, they will get paid the exact same amount in the end – which is based on whatever the numbers come in at 1 year from now.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks

"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein

by Garden of ODEN on Jul 8, 2009 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think a critical piece here

will be the luxury tax. Owners are almost universally averse to paying it. It will lower along with the cap. That may pry some players loose.

—Dave

by Dave on Jul 8, 2009 12:31 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

great point

I meant to reference that in my post as well, but neglected to

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 8, 2009 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great Post

…and comments. I found this very informative.

by sevyms on Jul 8, 2009 1:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice. Now where did I say something about the 2010 cap coming down 4-6 million before :)

If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar

by Norsktroll on Jul 8, 2009 1:36 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

luxury tax info

luxury tax threshold is projected to be $61.2 million to $65 million.

quote from the same article:

A significant drop for the luxury-tax threshold is also projected going into the summer of 2010. If basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million. If BRI, as it is referred to in the NBA, decreases by five percent, teams would be looking at a $50.4 million salary cap and a luxury-tax line of $61.2 million in 2010-11.

by iverigma2 on Jul 8, 2009 1:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

FYI

luxury tax line for 2009-10 is $69.2 million
luxury tax line for 2008-09 is $71.15 million

by iverigma2 on Jul 8, 2009 1:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

G Wallace, here we come!

Roberto Gatos en Los Carolina de Norte will be tax payers in 2010 as it currently stands.

They are within spitting distance of it this season as currently constructed and I’ve got them pegged to be at 56 mil next year with only 9 players and that’s w/o Felton’s salary/caphold and the slots that count against them.
The Nazir Mohammed contract is like a gold-plated millstone ’round their necks.

KP may be wise to set this FA out and go for the trade.

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Jul 8, 2009 6:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What’s the difference between the salary cap and the luxury tax line? What does each mean?

by jstamp26 on Jul 8, 2009 6:53 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The salary cap

is the level at which each team’s payroll is limited, which many exceptions. Basically the line determines the kind of transactions you can make and contracts you can sign. If you’re below the salary cap you have a lot more freedom in the moves you can make. If you’re above your trades have to conform to strict guidelines and the contracts you can offer are quite limited (unless you’re trying to re-sign a player that’s currently yours, which is one of the exceptions). For instance if I’m $12 million below the salary cap line next season I can offer LeBron James a contract starting at $12 million. If I’m above the cap line I can only offer him around $5 million and I can only complete one of those contracts once. It gets quite complex but just remember that below the cap equals more freedom, above the cap equals more limits.

The luxury tax came about because teams were taking full advantage of those exceptions we mentioned. Combined the exceptions were adding up to team payrolls that doubled the salary cap limit or more. Rather than take away the exceptions the league decided to impose an extra penalty on those who used them so often. After a team’s payroll exceeds the luxury tax line they have to pay an extra dollar for every dollar over. So if the tax tine is $70 million and the team’s payroll is $80 million not only does the own have to pay the contracts, he has to pay $10 million extra, making his burden $90 million now. The extra money goes into a fund which is divided and dispersed to all of the teams who didn’t exceed the tax line. In essence it’s a redistribution of wealth. You can still carry a huge payroll but you have to really value the extra guys you sign because you’re going to be paying double for them. Plus you get rewarded for staying below the line and staying sane with your payroll.

—Dave

by Dave on Jul 8, 2009 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Should have been

“owner have to pay”

—Dave

by Dave on Jul 8, 2009 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

I appreciate the time you took to explain.

by jstamp26 on Jul 8, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

me too!!!

I'm going to come up with the best line here ever, something really clever.

by musicdaniel on Jul 8, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is EXACTLY why the Blazers don't have to make move now

or even at the trade deadline.

If the Blazers do nothing this year except extend Roy & LMA, don’t fret, folks. Remember that trades cannot be made after the deadline. However, once the season ends, and before the new numbers are announced and those extensions kick in, you can resume trading at this year’s numbers (see Shaq & Jefferson). Some of these owners are holding out, but if the NBA economics continue to decline, you could see some real nice deals. With Outlaw and Blake coming off the books, a decline in the cap won’t hurt us – we’d by exactly where we are now, except without Outlaw & Blake being tradeable assets.

The only downside is that there will be more teams under the cap next year.

Patty Mills - PG of the future. Book it.

by Blazerholic on Jul 8, 2009 8:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well....

They do have to make some player acquisitions this summer. They can’t enter the regular season with only 10 players…….

by Storyteller on Jul 8, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

you forget that we have to resign brandon and LMA

which means all that space from Blake and Trout is gone, and we are left with an MLE only

by GreatOden'sRaven on Jul 8, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brandon and LMA extensions count on next year's cap

He’s talking about doing a move in the time between the finals and the draft, which would be this year’s cap number. The extensions don’t kick in until this time next year.

by BlazerTag on Jul 8, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Glad to see there's a post up about this

I was thinking about this last night and it’s still on my mind this morning. This might be the most important story of the month. This may completely revise what’s available to KP, and the events of next Summer across the league.

Adding a rec for both the topic and the discussion underneath.

by Timmay! on Jul 8, 2009 8:58 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

The fear factor is even larger now for teams that want to be under the tax threshold.

by Storyteller on Jul 8, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

especially with the difference between this years salary cap and next year’s projected luxury tax threshold being only $4 million, there are probably going to be some owners looking to shed some longer term contracts.

by tingeyga on Jul 8, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just a quick look at Storyteller's site

Shows 8 teams that are already committed to over $60 million in salaries next summer. These are teams that could be looking to make a major cost cutting move.

Dallas $74.4 million
Denver $69.4 million
Indiana $61.7 million
LA Lakers $76.8 million
NO Hornets $71.6 million
Orlando $73.8 million
Philly $65.1 million
Washington $60.6 million

Dallas and the Lakers don’t seem like the type of teams that will cut costs. But the other 6 teams might be willing to make a major deal to get under the cap. Most of these 6 teams have this much committed without having even 10 players on their roster, so they will be adding at least another $4+ million in player salary even in the most conservative estimates. The Hornets seem to be in the most trouble, they are way over the projected tax line with only 9 players signed. While Chandler and Peja will be in the last year of their deals, if they can’t find a taker for them are the Hornets really going to pay almost $10 million in luxury tax payments?

by usmcr3049 on Jul 8, 2009 9:34 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

There's already the rumor

about Chandler going to Phoenix for Ben Wallace.

by Storyteller on Jul 8, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

I see them moving him for sure, for pennies on the dollar, as they already tried to do with OKC.

The Lakers are an interesting team to look at with this new news. Their $76.8 million salary cap number is for only 7 players.
Kobe
Bynum
Gasol
Vujacic
Walton

and qualifiying offers to
Adam Morrison
Jordan Farmar

Now we can pretty safely assume that Morrison could be just renounced to remove his cap hold, so we can take his qualifying offer off their cap number, which brings it down to $69.9 million. Still well above the conservative projection of $65 million. Then you have to add in Artest who will sign his $18 million 3 year deal, (which according to yahoo is offical as of today. If we just use the yearly average of $6 million that brings them back up to $75.9 million, (it could be more or less than $6 million depending on how the contract is structured, maybe you can find out for us Storyteller!).

Then on top of that they still desire to re sign Lamar Odom, who, while willing to give LA a bit of a discount, doesn’t appear ready to take less than $8 million per season, which some reports saying he won’t take less than $10 million per season. But lets say he signs on the dotted line for $8 million, that brings their total to around $83.9 million with only 7 players under contract.

Jordan Farmer will have to be extended if the want to keep him, his qualifing offer of $2,874,126 is actually less that what he will likely command on either an extention or on the open market. If the lakers choose to let him walk, then they don’t have a PG, as Fisher’s deal will expire. So either they resign Fisher, extend Farmar as their starting PG, sign a FA pg to run the team, or trade for one. Either way it appears more salary is coming onto their books. Fisher’s deal was for about $5 million, which is likely what Farmar would get in an extention, (unless he plays out of his mind this year), and is at least what a FA pg would require to come in. So that is another minimum of $5 million onto their cap! Which now stands at about, $88.9 million for 8 players.

Kobe
Bynum
Gasol
Artest
Odom
Vujacic
Walton
Farmar

That would be their basic rotation, although they would need to get a back up PG + more fillers, (including their 2010 draft pick if they use it) to fill up the remaining 6 spots on their roster, (assuming they will have 14 players on the payroll as most teams do), which will cost them at least another $6-8 million. Which puts them around $95 million in payroll for the season where the luxury tax is conservatively estimated to be $65 million, causing Buss to pay around $30 million in luxury tax! While he might be able to technically afford that, one has to wonder if he will actually do it.

by usmcr3049 on Jul 8, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

When I heard about this today the first thing I thought of was Odom. I am sure they knew about this long before us but it does make one wonder how much they will be willing to pay him. A 120 mil roster is mind boggling. I believe the NFL’s cap is 128 mil for 55 players. They are almost basically at that payroll level with 14.

by Cory2669 on Jul 9, 2009 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently it's up to Phoenix

If they want Chandler, he’s theirs.
I’m sure they’re doing their due diligence medically speaking right about now.

by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jul 8, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same here

In my eyes, there are two ways to get him:
1. Eat Dalembert’s contract (otherwise known as the OKC method)

2. Give them lots of talent. The deal that I was thinking about was Blake, Trout, Martell, and either Rudy or Batum (whoever doesn’t complete the Roy/Iggy trio). For Philly, that gives them a PG to handle the load for next season and some security since they aren’t bringing Miller back, while the swingman trio makes them formidable and cap-friendly with PG as the only lingering need.

by dprodigy19 on Jul 9, 2009 5:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

a question on minimum roster in regular season

in Coon’s faq:

# A roster charge if the team has fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks). The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12. The roster charge only applies during the offseason.

it doesn’t mention the minimum roster requirement during regular season. So what is the requirement? And what happened if a team doesn’t carry enough players?

by iverigma2 on Jul 8, 2009 11:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

They get tired!!! jk, I don’t know the answer to that either and am curious as well.

by Cory2669 on Jul 9, 2009 1:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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