Why I think any trades need to happen before the season...

by colinmarsh on Jul 7, 2009 7:07 PM PDT

There's a lot of talk now that the majority of the better UFA's have signed that there is no time pressure on the Blazers and they could make lopsided trades up until the deadline mid-season. I can't dispute that this is technically true but I also think there's a very serious risk if they choose to do this.

priority number one for the blazers should absolutely be acquiring upgrades at either the point or small forward. they need to take advantage of the cap room they have. to be blunt if the blazers net nothing out of RLEC and their 2009 cap space then i would consider this an abject failure on the part of Kevin Pritchard.

however there is another concern looming for the blazers which i also think they need to address this summer and that is the upcoming RFA status of brandon roy and lamarcus aldridge. if the blazers choose not to negotiate extensions for these two they would be able to match offers received next summer but don't think it's impossible that one of the two would receive an offer that the blazers would refuse. there are a number of reasons why 2010 will be quite different than many other FA periods.

a large number of teams have targeted the 2010 offseason as their opportunity to chase the big big names - lebron james, dwayne wade, chris bosh. in fact all of the following teams have less than 30 million in guaranteed money post 2010:

atlanta

chicago

new jersey

houston

minnesota

new york

miami

memphis

portland* (player option for przybilla )

oklahoma city

NOTE: These numbers are based on hoopshype which while probably not 100% accurate gives a picture of how many more teams have caproom as opposed to say this offseason.

that's a whole lot of suitors at the ball for the big 3 guys mentioned above. a lot of people are getting left at the altar next season. and when teams are left at the altar they many times they go for the next best thing and will do anything to get it. moreover lamarcus while probably a step below chris bosh, is a very nice player and next year with so many teams with FA money to spend it's going to be a player's market.

in short, the likelihood that a player like lamarcus would get offered a max contract is pretty high in my estimation. now there's no question in my mind that the blazers are willing to pay max money to roy. but are they willing to pay the same for lamarcus? i don't think that's a certainty. for one lamarcus should absolutely not make the same money as roy and two lamarcus really isn't a max contract stature player.

i think this is the summer to extend both players but the trades need to happen before as the extensions will take the team well over the cap.

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blazers should match any offer he gets

by tevisthe4th on Jul 7, 2009 7:12 PM PDT reply actions

What team would offer LaMarcus the max?

It’s not a question of Aldridge’s worth, but of strategy. One a player signs an offer sheet, the signing team has to wait 10 days while the team he currently plays for decides whether or not to match. That effectively takes the offering team out of free agency by the time the Blazers make their decision whether or not to match.

BTW, Portland would match a max contract offer for LaMarcus Aldridge without blinking.

Tony Bennett reports that Minnesota and Portland are swapping draft picks -- Roy to Portland, Foye to Minnesota. That's it? That's the trade? None of the ESPN guys seem remotely fazed. I knew Kevin McHale couldn't just pick the best guy in the draft without somehow screwing it up. I would have bet my Ndudi Ebi rookie cards on it.

by Salem Stephen on Jul 7, 2009 7:18 PM PDT reply actions

7 days wait

When another team wants to sign a restricted free agent, it signs the player to an offer sheet, the principal terms of which the original team is given seven days to match. The offer sheet must be for at least two seasons (not including option years). If the player’s prior team also submitted a maximum qualifying offer, then the offer sheet must be for at least three seasons (not including option years). If the player’s original team exercises its right of first refusal by matching the principal terms of the offer sheet, the player is then under contract to his original team. If the player’s original team does not exercise its right of first refusal within seven days, the offer sheet becomes an official contract with the new team.

"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein

by Garden of ODEN on Jul 7, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions

couple things

1) we can max roy and aldridge before spending out cap. it has no affect on our 2009 cap space at all.
2) no way we don’t match ANY offer for either of them, including max offers. you don’t let those guys walk for nothing, no matter what your financial status. this assumes they even make it to next year. if they do, it won’t be for lack of trying to lock them up this summer
3) no team is going to tie up their early capspace for a week in summer 2010 on a restricted free agent that everyone and their brother knows is going to get matched. it isn’t even done for average guys like sessions and lee who might not get matched. it sure as heck won’t be done for guys like Roy and LMA

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 7, 2009 7:28 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Other reasons to get things done quickly:

You really don’t want your guys looking over their shoulders, as it were, wondering “Am I going to get traded?”. Granted, some of that will happen, anyhow, but wouldn’t it be better if the team was pretty much set for the whole season? The other thing, of course, is getting the trades done now allows time for that elusive chemistry to develop between the current players and the new guy(s).

Duct tape makes you smart.

by TTRocks on Jul 7, 2009 7:37 PM PDT reply actions

LaMarcus isnt looking for a max contract. He has said as much in interviews. Roy will get one. But LaMarcus wants to stay here and we should have him signed before the free agency starts.
In any case, because all of our capspace will be affected by LMA, we need to use it soon, as LMA wants to be resigned before the season. That is only effective for us AFTER we have made all our moves. If that is truly the case, we need to make quick work of this market and go get what we want.

by GreatOden'sRaven on Jul 7, 2009 8:09 PM PDT reply actions

i promise you

LMA’s agent is looking for a max offer, and i also promise LMA wont turn it down to take less.

by bad karma on Jul 7, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions

his agent is for sure, and I think you're right they will push hard for one, but ultimately I think LMA will get a little less. He said he's looking for a fair deal that works for both parties.

by dario argento on Jul 7, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions

No way

If LMA’s agent does not get max dollars, he should drive his car off a cliff. LMA has all the chips in that poker game. Portland needs him WAY more than he needs Portland.

by bad karma on Jul 7, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions

write idea not the best reasons

The most important reason’s to do the trade now instead of at the deadline are:

1. Getting a chance for the team to gel with whatever new line-up we choose. We will be much more efficient if the team has a summer to practice together.

2. Minimize uncertainty for players. Travis’ and LaMarcus’ production jumped after the trade deadline. They were nervous and didn’t know what was happening. If we know where the team is going the players can buy into the plan.

3. Deal with the minutes crunch now so that we can develop the players we’ve decided to keep. The only way Batum, Rudy, Martel, Travis and/or Bayless are going to get better is if they get consistent minutes. We need to choose a couple of these young potential stars and get them playing time.

4. Have a plan in place for Steve, Travis and Joel. Steve and Travis’s contracts are up and Joel can opt out. The earlier we know what our plan is, the earlier we can lock up the player’s we’ve decided to keep and help the players that are moving on out the door.

That doesn’t mean we should pull the trigger on a bad deal. But it definitely means we should be working the phones hard now up until a few weeks into training camp.

by boppitywop on Jul 7, 2009 9:13 PM PDT reply actions

So if we wait Management makes money on Roy and Aldridge right.

1. If the Blazers sign a max deal now vs. in a year after the salary cap drops doesn’t that mean the Max we could offer would be less?

"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein

by Garden of ODEN on Jul 7, 2009 11:26 PM PDT reply actions

no

max contracts are always just “estimated” until the final numbes come in. no matter if they sign the deal now or next summer, if they are signing a max deal, it will end up being exactly the same amount in the end (when they actually get paid). As it stands now, it looks like a max deal starting in 2010-11 will start somewhere in the 13.5 range.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 7, 2009 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I may have missed this if someone already said it.

But there is no way the Blazers do not get the extensions done on these two guys this year. There is no way that they are not locked up for as long as possible as Blazers. It just won’t happen.

by BlazerFanFromDenver on Jul 8, 2009 4:10 PM PDT reply actions