Blazers' Trade Value

by axel360 on Jul 7, 2009 6:51 PM PDT Comment 39 comments

Over the last few days especially, we on Blazer's Edge have thrown a lot of trade ideas out there. I've heard a lot of "team X would never do that" or "not Batum". So, how much value does each Blazer player actually have to the Blazers (NOT other teams)? No doubt, there will be a lot of disagreement, but here is my personal opinion.

On a scale of 1 to 10, with the higher number being the more valuable player.

LaMarcus Aldridge: 9 LA has been one of the top 2 players on the team the last two years- and he's only played 3 years. Next year, he'll be an All Star. Unless it's for a perrenial All Star, he's staying in Portland.

Nicolas Batum: 6.5 Although his numbers weren't great last year, you could clearly see the potential. Just the fact he started almost every game for a 54 win team and still can't legally drink is impressive.

Jerryd Bayless: 5.5 Bayless didn't get the playing time he wanted last year, but KP loves him and many think he could be the PG of the future.

Steve Blake: 5 Steve is very dependable and is a great fit in the backcourt with Roy, but let's be honest, he's a below average starting point guard in the NBA.

Rudy Fernandez: 6 Rudy is not quite as valuable as Batum because he is four years older. However, Rudy is a great playmaker, 3 point shooter, and has a great contract. Many teams are rumored to covet him.

Greg Oden: 8.5 The only reason he isn't higher is because of injury concerns, and he still hasn't done much yet. But Greg's potential is light years ahead of anyone on this team.

Travis Outlaw: 5.5 For some reason he is always involved in trade rumors. To be fair, few can match his combionation of size, athleticism, and shooting. And although he doesn't play defense, his contract is expiring.

Joel Przybilla: 7 This was probably the toughest one. Even though Joel doesn't provide scoring, he gives this team everything else. You can rely on him to defend the basket, provide toughness and size, and save us when Greg fouls out in 10 minutes. He's more valuable to us than anyone else.

Brandon Roy: 10 I wouldn't trade him for anyone in the league. He isn't just our best player, but the heart and soul of the team. One day, he'll be considered the best and most popular Blazer of all time.

Martell Webster: 5.5 Martell is tough because I don't know about his health. But when healthy Martell is a great 3 point shooter, tenacious defender, good athlete, and solid size. He is also just 22 and a great character guy. His health and Batum's emergence lower this score.

Top Two Players That Are More Valuable to Us: Joel Przybilla and Nicolas Batum

Top Two Players That Have More Value to Other Teams: Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez

4 recs | Comment 39 comments

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Comments

As far as Joel being more valuable to us...

I have to think the Rockets wish they could get their mitts on him right about now.

by Decaf on Jul 7, 2009 7:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ya but they dont have anything to offer us

for joel. they shouldnt have eaten the head

by GregOden15ppg on Jul 7, 2009 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

battier?

Rudy=RF5

by rip city coming alive on Jul 9, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Batum's numbers weren't great last year"

Have you seen his per 36 numbers? They’re pretty solid: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/batumni01.html

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune

by Muad'Dib on Jul 7, 2009 7:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Batum's hype is about potential, not proven performance

Even Batum’s extrapolated per-36 minute numbers are still mediocre. Compare them to Outlaw’s: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/outlatr01.html

by DC Blazer on Jul 7, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I don't get it

10 points, 5 boards and 2 assists per 36 aren’t considered to be mediocre? Those are roughly the same numbers that Damien Wilkins had this year

by Royster on Jul 7, 2009 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I may be opening a can of worms,

but there aren’t very many stats that showcase the contributions of a defensive specialist are there?

by LewisClark on Jul 8, 2009 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are....

but Batum doesn’t fair exceedingly well there. He was just a rookie, and we saw the ability to be an elite defender. And on this team, that might as well be some strange brand of magic.

by as11osu on Jul 8, 2009 1:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regardless

that’s not what the OP was saying. If we’re being honest, we saw potential in Batum, but his numbers were mediocre. Let’s not make him out to be anything he’s not yet.

by Royster on Jul 8, 2009 5:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Man, I thought

this fanpost would have created a little more discussion

by axel360 on Jul 7, 2009 7:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

dinner time/early evening.

site slows down I think

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 7, 2009 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup. morning and early afternoon is when I think I see the most trafiic.

by dario argento on Jul 7, 2009 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What question are you asking?

This is just one person’s rating of players. Not a bad job, but what’s to comment on?

by LaoTzu on Jul 7, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good post.

by LewisClark on Jul 8, 2009 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

not bad at all

Martell is too high, becuase of his injury. more like a 2 right now.

hard to quibble with much else though. good read.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 7, 2009 7:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Martell was difficult to put a number on

by axel360 on Jul 7, 2009 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

a 2?

Ike Diagu was a 2. Sergio was a 3. Martell is a 4.5 at least, with the possibility of getting up to a 6 if healthy.

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Jul 7, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

right now 4.5 sounds spot on

knew he had scored when his skid washed ashore, and a monkey served him a frozen ... daiquiri

by Coconut Pete on Jul 7, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure if i should have

but i assumed his foot injury isnt too serious. but i did take a little away because he is a little injury prone.

by axel360 on Jul 7, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I think two things are wrong with that. Mostly I think his injury is very serious (foot ones are) and he’s not really that injury prone from my memory.

I’m one of the biggest Martell fans out there, but his foot injury scares me. I think part of the reason the team is so slow is because they know it can become injured again very quickly. They were seriously contemplating bringing him back for games, I think right now they want to over do it on the waiting to make sure this isnt a huge career deal.

by TCuts on Jul 8, 2009 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah those foot injuries are scary

but it says on Martell Webster’s scouting report under the flaws section “Has been injury-prone.”

by axel360 on Jul 8, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joel

I think that Joel’s trade value is being vastly overstated simply due to the fact that he has a player option to opt out of his contract next year. Here’s what that means:

Option 1, Houston (or team that is desperate for a center) – they have no assurance of keeping him beyond next spring;

Option 2, New York (or team that is desperate for cap space in the summer of LeBron) – they have no assurance that he will opt out next spring.

This is why I don’t think Joel is going anywhere. He is valuable to us right now but does not have value to another team from a contractual standpoint.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Jul 7, 2009 8:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thats what I was saying

Joel has more value to us than other teams. that means he (along with batum) probably wont get traded but rudy and travis could get traded

by axel360 on Jul 7, 2009 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes you did say it, I just didn’t hear the reason why (either here, in Dave’s long screed last night which I admittedly skimmed, or anywhere else).

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Jul 7, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And I disagree with you about Batum being more valuable to us than to anyone else (from a contractual standpoint), but again I’m looking at it from a different perspective than you.

Totally, 100% agree on Rudy and Trout – they are more valuable elsewhere than Portland, though I hope we can find a way to retain Rudy for awhile longer, but not so long that we end up losing him for nothing.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Jul 7, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I took the contracts into account

But not too much. I really don’t think any of these ten guys have a terrible contract. I do get that Batum has a lot of value around the league because of his contract though.

by axel360 on Jul 7, 2009 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really hope we don't trade Rudy

He is a clutch player who seems to flourish in high pressure situations and will be a very valuable player come playoffs. That’s my opinion.

by LewisClark on Jul 8, 2009 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any team willing to trade for Przy will value him more than the MLE

thus the team with his Bird rights will have a huge advantage in signing him. Lots of more attractive FAs are available and projection for the salary cap are going down. I doubt his opt-out clause scares many teams looking to add Joel.

by 52therim on Jul 8, 2009 12:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Important Things To Take From This:

1) Roy, LA, Oden, Joel, and Batum aren’t going anywhere
2) Travis and Rudy might be

by axel360 on Jul 7, 2009 8:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Travis and Rudy

could get us a pretty good PG. How about D.J Augustin, Nash or Calderon? Maybe even Rondo!

by VinnyB on Jul 7, 2009 9:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Or Devin Harris...

Ric Bucher was on 95.5 the game and said he thought Blazers could get Harris from the Nets. wonder if rudy (making barely over a mil a year) and travis (expiring contract) would be enough? because they can both play too.

by axel360 on Jul 7, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

need to use capspace

Harris’ contract = 8.4 mil, Outlaw and Rudy combined = 4.8

Blake and Outlaw would get it done without any extra $$$ being required

Why would NJ do it? Next year the salary cap could be dropping to 50-53 mil…if they want to clear space to sign a cople of max FAs, Harris is the Net’s largest remaining long-term contract

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 8, 2009 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's also the only reason someone would sign there

Most the FAs that everyone’s hoping for are going to look for winning teams, or teams they could take over the top. Could NJ hope to lure someone without Harris? I’m not sure they could. Thus, FA doesn’t look that promising to them.

However, if they don’t think they’ll have the space to get a big FA anyway, then why not trade one all-star playmaker for salary cuts. Otherwise, you’re wasting Harris and the money you spend on him. He’s not a #1 on a good team.

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jul 8, 2009 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice list but I'd rather see a it with their league value

not just value to us. Actually comparing the two could be fun.

Keep in mind that everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazers Edge.

by pualo on Jul 7, 2009 10:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You have to also factor in the player's contract when determining trade value

Rudy and Batum both have extremely cheap rookie contracts. Joel Przybilla has a relatively large contract with a player option after next year. Taking that into account, I think Rudy and Batum both have a lot more trade value than Przybilla does.

by trk on Jul 8, 2009 1:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Untouchable

There are only two untouchable players on that list, outside of Roy, Aldridge, and Oden…

Pryzbilla and Batum.

Joel has been solid after he showed he could get past his injury problems (knock on wood). He is the only “sure thing” on defense we can count on each and every night. Where would we be without the Pryz last year?

Nic can lock down the other team’s offensive players and he showed flashes of brilliance on the offensive side of the ball, at times. 3 ball, driving, making good decisions, and low turnover ratios.

I would include Webster because of his size, age, 3 ball, and his potential, but he doesn’t have any trade value right now. He’s in limbo.

Knock Outlaw all you want – his poor defense, being out of place and/or lost most of the times w/o the ball, but he’s the only proven scorer we have playing the 2, 3, or 4

by epalms on Jul 8, 2009 2:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Przybilla. "z" first :)

Does this mean I have to like Diogu now???

by Ike_o_rama! on Jul 8, 2009 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting debate

Martel’s trade value at the moment is probably close to 0 – no team would absorb his contract, even without giving up anything in return, until he proves his feet aren’t broken.

I’d say Brandon’s completely untouchable, and top 7-10 in the league. LMA and Greg are on the next tier of near untouchable guys, probably in the top 20-20 leaguewide. Bayless, Rudy, and Nic have significant value around the league as young talent with a ton of potential on very cheap rookie deals.

Blake and Trout are both solid trade chips, and for some teams they may have more value because they are expiring contracts who are still very viable players. So teams can get financial relief without looking too cheap – they can sell any trade as a basketball decision and still save lots ’a dough.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Jul 8, 2009 8:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Websters Foot

I don’t know if all of you recall, but Martell missed the majority of his Junior year of highschool with a simillar foot injury. I think because of this, his trade value to other teams is even less then what we all think. GM’s around the leauge are very aware of this problem and next to a sprinter, an NBA baller is the most affected by this type of injury. This is all fine with me though, we lock him in with the extension and we recieve a young determined player who bolsters and amazing shot touch that can not be taught. Besides his perimeter D that was really starting to come on, we forget that his seinor year in Highschool he avg’d over 10 boards a game. I realize this does not translate to this level of play, but if it means 4 to 5 boards, some great perimeter D and the everyday possibility of him throwing up 23 in the 3rd quarter… I am completely happy with the level of compensation he recieves to the ouput we as fans witness. I hope he stays underrated, this guys was a lottery pick at 18 and has plenty to show the world of basketball. Get well soon Telly!

by BRoy-TheNatural on Jul 8, 2009 11:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs