that should last until February.

but I doubt anyone would make the assertion (including the author himself) that the FA signings were the only cause of their respective teams let down. I think this is just a good counter to the “we must use this capspace on SOMEONE” argument. We can’t expect one FA to turn us into contenders. We can sign a FA, but we also have to keep an eye out for the injury bug, losing flexibility for future deals, who we’re displacing on the roster to sign that FA. A free agent signing isn’t a magic bullet.

I think this is a lesson for fans, not GMs. It’s the fans who immediately overvalue the future contributions of their new signing and then wonder what happened when it doesn’t all come together.

This isn’t a catch-all scientific analysis of the value of free agency, I just want to reflect on the bigger signings from last year’s off-season and the results the teams reaped from their investments.

These were the four biggest free agent siginings of last year. There were other contributions to the lack of improvement from the teams who made signings on this list. I could have mentioned the injuries to Monta Ellis, Tyson Chandler, or Peja, but I didn’t because this was a post about pure results from the 2008 free agent class.

If I would have had a little more time, I would have pointed out that the teams that signed lower-tier free agents were the real winners of the 2008 free agency. James Jones (remember him) helped Miami in the second half of their season. Chris Anderson was a nice pickup for the Denver Nuggets. Michael Pietrus was a huge addition to the Orlando Magic’s playoff run. Hell, I even thought Matt Barnes was solid for the Suns even though they didn’t make it to the playoffs. These were all players that didn’t command a high salary.

I just wanted to show that free agency is not a cure-all. My “sloppy, misleading analysis” didn’t have to go back too far to prove that point. I’m not into making predictions, but if I were, I would be willing to bet that Detroit is going to regret signing Charlie V and Ben Gordon to all that money, Hedo Turkoglu won’t be worth his contract in 3 years, and whoever signs Andre Miller or Mike Bibby will have buyer’s remorse in three months time.

Since I wanted to avoid hyperbole and only deal with facts. This is the best I could do.

I didn’t present an argument based on future conjecture, I just presented facts and results. If you have evidence that proves free agency is a huge boon, I would love to hear it.

and want to add in response to

It’s sloppy analysis to infer specific conclusions from broad, general data.

that this doesn’t make any sense. When you analyze something, you take it apart, see what it is made out of. When you infer something, you put together a generalization from observation. Which process are you criticizing? Also, inferring from a broad range of data is GOOD, not bad; inferring from a limited range of data leads to the hasty conclusions you seem to be unhappy about.

Also, I’m not sure what you’re looking for when you say this post is “oversimplifying things.” What are you expecting, a thousand-page thesis on the effects of free agency that would encompass “a million factors” on win-loss record? If so, what justifies your calling this “worthless information” in two mere paragraphs?

The point of this article is clear. Teams paying out tens of millions of dollars on free agents do so expecting to win. Here are the biggest free agents last year. But instead of significant improvement, these teams are examples of many who overspent on free agents with negligble improvement or even worse records. I’m sure all of us can name many more. With all the hysteria surrounding the Blazers acquiring another piece via free agency, such a move can backfire in the short term and kills our cap space in the long term.

I would like to add a further hypothesis: given these (and more) trade and free agent moves that famously don’t work out, the multiple threads positing the poster’s vision of any particular moves seem—well, like exactly the sort of post you’d expect on a basketball fan site. Fans love to see trades for big names like Baron Davis because it gets them excited about the possibilities of their team winning with that player. GMs who act like these fans, however, can really get things wrong.

That’s why a part of me admires the moves Pritchard often makes that, as a fan, make me cry out, “but you passed on the guy everyone wanted THREE TIMES” or “He gave up 20 points and 10 rebounds for WHAT???!!?!?” It’s like reading a mystery novel laden with clues and wondering which clue is going to be the key to solving it all.

I bet Mike Dunleavy still contacts MJ’s agent to this day.

Shaq to the Lakers was a great FA siging and so was Steve Nash to the Suns. There are times when overpaying for a quality player puts you over the hump for years to come. Last year, however, was not that time.

I agree that the lower-tier free agents really helped their teams last year. Matt Barnes was pretty good for the Suns and Michael Pietrus really helped Orlando disguise Hedo’s poor defense, but I was focusing on the free agents with the most juice that got the best contracts.

i think its a gamble between paying too much for a sure thing and taking a lot of risks on guys like chris anderson, you know the sucess stories but you don’t know about all the guys who never worked out. I think most of the lower teer free agents really don’t give us too much, we could get lucky on a cheap signing but with the money and space we have we should be trying for a bigger move. the risk is high but the reward of a championship is pretty awesome