Buyer Beware: Lessons from the FA Class of '08
by BlazerTag on Jul 5, 2009 8:42 PM PDT
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PrintI want to add a little perspective about the worth of NBA free agents. This isn't a catch-all scientific analysis of the value of free agency, I just want to reflect on the bigger signings from last year's off-season and the results the teams reaped from their investments.
The Los Angeles Clippers scored a major coupe when they added this bearded bomber and cap-sized a division rival at the start of free agency. Unhappy with his relationship with coach Don Nelson (what Golden State player isn't), Baron Davis opted to move on and play for his hometown team to the tune of $65 million over 5 years.
After the disastrous 23-59 campaign in the 2007-2008 season, the Clippers decided to shore up their biggest need, point guard. A horrific injury to Shaun Livingston left them with a huge hole in their starting five. Having locked-up Davis as their franchise facillitator, the Clippers figured to improve their previous season's win total by leaps and bounds.
The end result: four less wins in 2009.
According to the reports out of Los Angeles, Elton Brand convinced Baron Davis to sign with the Clippers, told him what great teammates they would be, only to bolt for the city of brotherly love, Philadelphia. He opted out of his old contract to land a new 5 year deal that netted him nearly $80 million.
Even though they finished the 2007-2008 season two games below .500, the Philadelphia 76ers snuck into the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference and took their first round series with the Detroit Pistons to six games. They did this despite the mild statistical contribution from their starting Power Forward, Reggie Evans. With Brand now in the fold to help mentor a team full of young, emerging talent, the 76ers looked to hit the fast-forward button on their three-year plan.
Despite getting only 29 games out of Elton Brand for the entire 2008-2009 season, Philadelphia managed to improve last season's win total by a whole game. However, they had the same amount of success in the playoffs: a first round elimination in six games.
The LA Clippers' signing of Baron Davis created a ripple effect on the 2008 NBA off-season that carried over to it's own free agents, Elton Brand and Corey Maggette. Feeling jilted by Baron Davis, the Golden State front office went "psycho ex-girlfriend" on his new beau and immediately offered the Clips' Elton Brand a $90 million deal. When Brand refused, the Warriors turned their attention to LA's other free agent, Corey Maggette. He signed for $50 million over 5 years.
Unbelievably, the Warriors' 48 win season was not enough to get them in the 2008 post season. When Baron Davis left the team, it rocked their foundation. They were left scrambling and ended up with Corey Maggette, a big, athletic wing who figured to flourish in Don Nelson's fast-break oriented style.
The good news for the Warriors in the 2008-2009 season was that they won 10 more games than Baron Davis's new team. The bad news, it was 19 games less than they won the previous season.
James Posey was Doc River's "bench captain" on the Boston Celtics 2008 championship squad. Riding off this successful run, this defensive-stopping, three-point shooting "glue guy" signed with the New Orleans Hornets for $24 million over 4 years.
The Hornets were the suprise success story in the 2007-2008 NBA season, improving by 17 games to finish with 56 wins. Lead by emerging superstar Chris Paul, the Hornets cruised through the first round of the playoffs, only to be stunted in the second round by the San Antonio Spurs. New Orleans' starting five could keep up with anybody, unfortunately their bench left something to be desired. Adding James Posey to the roster improved their biggest weakness, depth off the bench.
New Orleans finished 2009 with 7 fewer wins then they had in 2008. Their new-look bench did nothing to help them in the playoffs, as they were demolished in the first round by the Denver Nuggets.
What it all means to the Blazers this off-season
Over-spending in free agency is the worst thing a team can do. Adding another team's player is not gauranteed to help you the next season. Often times, you end up over-looking the contributions your own players made to the overall success of your team.
The New Orleans Hornets are a perfect example of this. They wanted to improve their bench by signing Posey and in the process they lost one of their own bench players, Chris "Birdman" Anderson, to the Denver Nuggets. Tyson Chandler's injury, Hilton Armstrong's uselessness, and Anderson's success left the Hornets wishing they had just retained the services of "the Birdman".
A year from now, I hope we don't look back to the 2009 off-season and have similar buyer's remorse about our new players compared to the ones we lost.
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Good Points
Makes me think…
KP—-Beware when looking for ‘Veteran Leadership’
Just because a really good player happens to be a veteran, it doesn’t make them a leader. What does it say about a free agent’s desire to win a championship when they go to the team that simply pays them the most. A player like that has no desire to find the right team or role, they just want to get PAID!!!
That is not veteran leadership.
by Docproc on Jul 5, 2009 9:22 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Cool perspective
I’m starting to feel that a few holes should be filled, rather than reshape the starting lineup.
Backup PF is the important #1 issue. Pendergraff?
I’m one who thought Blake did a fine job, but cringed whenever our backup point guard was playing. I sure hope Bayless becomes reliable, but I have yet to see evidence of this happening.
Martell’s foot injury may not ever heal completely. It’s already taken much longer than usual, although these 5th metatarsals are known to be beastly fractures.
Good points, but the fact remains
that KP has one last chance to add an impact player and it would be foolish not to try. What Paul Allen would have paid Hedo or may pay another player isn’t going to impact the team salary cap more than signing Roy and Aldridge to their new contracts.
17 recs?
This is (note: this is not an attack on the person, but on the analysis) sloppy, and misleading analysis. A million factors go into a teams win-loss record, and a single free agent signing is but a small one. This is oversimplifying things to an insane level, and saying “the Clippers, 76’ers, Warriors, and Hornets all signed free agents last year, and got worse” without any mention of the other variables that went into their seasons implies that the FA signees were the ones responsible for the losses. I doubt that this is what you intended to do, but regardless, a team’s win total is a very poor barometer for judging any individual move, and is nearly worthless information.
It’s from the same school of thought that says the Yankees signing of A-Rod was bad because he hasn’t “brought” them a WS (as if it was his sole responsibility, and the other 24 players on the team are just along for the ride), completely ignoring the fact that they’re MUCH better off with him than without him. It’s sloppy analysis to infer specific conclusions from broad, general data. I appreciate your conclusion (that one should be careful in signing FA’s), but the process that got there is extremely poor ESPN-level analysis that should be avoided.
by Terminator X on Jul 5, 2009 11:37 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I understand the point you are making
but I doubt anyone would make the assertion (including the author himself) that the FA signings were the only cause of their respective teams let down. I think this is just a good counter to the “we must use this capspace on SOMEONE” argument. We can’t expect one FA to turn us into contenders. We can sign a FA, but we also have to keep an eye out for the injury bug, losing flexibility for future deals, who we’re displacing on the roster to sign that FA. A free agent signing isn’t a magic bullet.
I think this is a lesson for fans, not GMs. It’s the fans who immediately overvalue the future contributions of their new signing and then wonder what happened when it doesn’t all come together.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on Jul 6, 2009 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I agree with the above responses to this criticism
and want to add in response to
It’s sloppy analysis to infer specific conclusions from broad, general data.
that this doesn’t make any sense. When you analyze something, you take it apart, see what it is made out of. When you infer something, you put together a generalization from observation. Which process are you criticizing? Also, inferring from a broad range of data is GOOD, not bad; inferring from a limited range of data leads to the hasty conclusions you seem to be unhappy about.
Also, I’m not sure what you’re looking for when you say this post is “oversimplifying things.” What are you expecting, a thousand-page thesis on the effects of free agency that would encompass “a million factors” on win-loss record? If so, what justifies your calling this “worthless information” in two mere paragraphs?
The point of this article is clear. Teams paying out tens of millions of dollars on free agents do so expecting to win. Here are the biggest free agents last year. But instead of significant improvement, these teams are examples of many who overspent on free agents with negligble improvement or even worse records. I’m sure all of us can name many more. With all the hysteria surrounding the Blazers acquiring another piece via free agency, such a move can backfire in the short term and kills our cap space in the long term.
I would like to add a further hypothesis: given these (and more) trade and free agent moves that famously don’t work out, the multiple threads positing the poster’s vision of any particular moves seem—well, like exactly the sort of post you’d expect on a basketball fan site. Fans love to see trades for big names like Baron Davis because it gets them excited about the possibilities of their team winning with that player. GMs who act like these fans, however, can really get things wrong.
That’s why a part of me admires the moves Pritchard often makes that, as a fan, make me cry out, “but you passed on the guy everyone wanted THREE TIMES” or “He gave up 20 points and 10 rebounds for WHAT???!!?!?” It’s like reading a mystery novel laden with clues and wondering which clue is going to be the key to solving it all.
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
Nice post
I think Hedo for 5yrs/$50+mil is way too much.
Now, let’s focus on taking a bad team’s valuable player. Cleveland got Shaq for nothing, LA got Gasol for nothing, and so forth. There’s a deal out there, let’s get it.
I really like the squad we have.
I think Greg behind Joel for another year will be great for Greg. I think his game will grow fastest in that way.
I am game to try a combination of 3 wing small ball (Orlando style) and the rookie behind LaMarcus. Travis at the 4 15 minutes a night is fine with me.
I worry about Martell’s recovery, but hope for the best. Regardless of Martell’s health I would love to see Nic play 30 minutes a night at the 3. More SFs means less time for Brandon and Rudy together alongside a PG defender.
I really, really want to see each of Brandon and Rudy play 30+ minutes a game.
If Brandon takes to PG, perfect. If not then I like Steve as a caretaker while we see how far Jerryd can advance in the coming season.
I really think we should leave the cake on the counter until the trading deadline nears, then address whatever remains to be done.
If KP is close to right about Greg and Joel, about LMA and Travis/Perdergraph, about Nic and Travis/Martell/Brandon, about Brandon/Rudy and about Steve/Jerryd, there will be no pressing unmet needs.
So let’s go find an underhyped PF and a third string PG. Marvin Williams and Anthony Carter sound just fine.
Bedge or go home.
by Ojala John on Jul 6, 2009 8:16 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Greg is not going to be behind Joel this year
Greg makes everyone else on the team better because he requires lots of attention. Joel is a very limited offensive threat. I can’t see them not starting Oden this year. If anything, the Houston series showed that we need more than 2 1/2 scorers on the floor (Roy, LMA, Steve as a spot-up = 1/2) . Oden isn’t yet an efficient low post scorer, but he is such a big threat to dunk over top people that he requires constant attention. When he does get the ball he attracts doubles and creates open opportunities for others.
I’m not adverse to only making small tweaks, but I think it makes sense to try for more with our FA $s. If we can’t get a good FA or can’t find a good lopsided trade, I’m OK with minor tweaks, but I think an upgrade at either SF or PG should be the goal. It doesn’t matter if that is a direct signing like Hedo or an indirect move like Lee and then trading Pryz for a quality starter. My main concern is to try to improve in the short run without sacrificing too much depth and youth for the long run.
by upper left corner on Jul 6, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Good point, well made...
I have to point out, though, that the Clippers could have added Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain and Isiah Thomas – all at the peak of their careers – and still managed to find a way to lose three more games.
They’re the Clippers.
Mod. Moderate. Moderation. Moderator.
Good post.
But I do want to add that overpaying for a FA is not always the worst thing to do. While Orlando may regret signing Rashard Lewis to that big contract later on, the fact remains that he was a big part in them making it to the Finals last year. He hit some big shots in the playoffs and made opponents pay for doubling Howard in the post. And they wouldn’t have gotten him if they hadn’t overpaid.
So it does sometimes make sense to overpay, especially if the player has a unique set of skills and fits within your overall offensive and/or defensive concept. Obviously, Orlando felt like Lewis met those criteria and I imagine KP and Nate would probably argue that Turkoglu fit them for Portland, too (though I’m not sure I agree).
Your overall point is still valid; I think Lewis is probably the exception that proves the rule. Only time will tell if that applies to Hedo, as well.
Good examples, but...
Spurs signed Roger Mason
Warriors signed Ronny Turiaf
Nuggets signed Chris Andersen
There are always good deals out there to get also.
not enough
i think its a gamble between paying too much for a sure thing and taking a lot of risks on guys like chris anderson, you know the sucess stories but you don’t know about all the guys who never worked out. I think most of the lower teer free agents really don’t give us too much, we could get lucky on a cheap signing but with the money and space we have we should be trying for a bigger move. the risk is high but the reward of a championship is pretty awesome
Ben Wallace was a big disaster for Chicago a few years ago.
A young team with great promise took a nose dive and lost their cap flexibility…
Patty Mills - PG of the future. Book it.
There's no question that putting all your financial eggs
in one free agent basket can handicap your team for years. Gigantic contract extensions like D Miles got can be just as bad. ( http://hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm ) GRRR ! I remember the front page of the Oregonian, him with his silly dear in the headlight look, I’m mad again now.
Well said
I hope these people who think the Blazers have to do something big, just because they can, listen to you.
Brandon Roy is now the Veteran Leader the Blazers need. (with Joel & Steve backing him up) Some people always want an allstar at every position. That does not work…
See Bob Whitsit. We have a team of quality young men, who have good work ethic; they are coachable; they have GREAT chemistry. Give them a chance please.
If neede we can make a deal some time before the trade deadline.
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