Check the action, KP. The cards will come.
by The Penguin on Jul 5, 2009 2:46 PM PDT
40 comments
To make a poker comparison, I think that with our recent attempt and failure to reel in Turkoglu, what we have essentially done is make a big pre-flop bet on a high suited connector, and been called and now it's time to see a flop, and check blind.
I am not one who believes that we have a huge need at SF, at all.
via i.a.cnn.net
In Batum, we have a young defensively talented prospect, that we all seem to agree will improve by some factor for the next few years. This is a kid that beat out a veteran for a roster spot in training cap last year, and then earned a starting (if not primary) SF role via work ethic and desire.
via www.all-nba-all-basketball.com
In Travis we have a 6th man of the year candidate and a guy who creates his own shot and rises to the occasion in crunch time. You can no more write him off based on one years playoff performance than you can anoint him the next Robert Horry based on a few big time game winning shots. He is Travis Outlaw, and he has value, whether it be to us or another team... More on that in a bit.
via www.nba.com
In Martell, we have a guy that was the clear cut starter last year until he was injured. I feel like there are a lot of folks in the BE community that have forgotten how much he was showing us at the end of the 07-08 season, and how coach-able and in line with our culture this kid is. He needed to add muscle, and did, he needed to work on his defense, and did, and he needed to be more aggressive going to the hoop, and did. Watch this as a trip down memory lane for where we left off with Marty.
One of these three guys will be our starting SF for many years to come. I believe that this is a position on the floor where we have room to sit tight and evaluate one more year, due to the depth at 3 (remember, Brandon can slide in here, as well) on our roster and the strength of roster at other positions. I still contend that we dodged a bullet with Hedo heading for Toronto, as we eventually would have lost 2 of these 3 guys by signing Hedo. I think a lot of us are relieved.
My primary point is that the dwindling list of truly available FA's just isn't worth tweaking the chemistry of a team that exceeded most everyone's expectations in a year that saw three rookies garner significant playing time, and a fourth stuck in a logjam at PG until the recent release of Sergio. At most we need to get a capable, inexpensive veteran PG to fill a gap between Blake's experience and Bayless' potential, and a role playing. backup PF.
At PG, I am thinking Lindsey Hunter, Tyronn Lue, and Bobby Jackson types, and at PF, I think McDyess or Bass would be a good fit. It's not that I think that any of the players I mentioned are incredible players, so much as I think they fill a need. The ONLY exception to my way of thinking here is if somehow we can get the attention of Lamar Odom, in which case we overpay him to play in our wee little market, and then fire up the trade wagon, and move either Outlaw or Webster for a PG that fits, or package one of them with Blake for an upgrade.
I see moves for Hinrich, Kidd or Miller as potentially lateral or worse especially if we overpay. We nailed the 4 seed this year, and i am not so sure that Artest to LA, or Jefferson to SA is going to improve those teams as much as experience and cohesiveness will improve our Blazers.
Stand pat, KP, and just fill in the holes. One year is too short of a time to start over-tweaking this thing. We should know a thing or two about Martell and Bayless by the trade deadline, and be able to make a more informed and constructive trade. Outlaw's value has staying power, because regardless of whether or not one appreciates his skill set, he does a few things very well, and has done so for long enough to be considered a proven commodity.
Even if we stand pat in Feb, don't make a deep playoff run and decide we do need to fidget, the FA market will be much better next year, but I have a feeling this group will surprise us again, if we let them.
Added late: Many are pointing out that the cap space is now or never, which is true. I guess my point is to be wary of subtraction by addition, and losing the interest of players that are currently happy with their roles, but might not be if a player (like Turk) is added to the team. Again, of the available SF's, Odom and ONLY Odom is worth the shuffle to me at this point. Not having cap space does not render us completely leverage-less.
As for the PG spot, I say lets let Bayless get his 20 mpg for a while before we go and tinker too much. And no matter what you do, DO NOT bring Andre Miller over here, please!
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You had me until this line...
Even if we stand pat in Feb, don’t make a deep playoff run and decide we do need to fidget, the FA market will be much better next year, but I have a feeling this group will surprise us again, if we let them.
We won’t be able to sign a free agent, other than with the MLE, as Roy and Aldridge’s extensions kick in, and we’ll be over the cap.
by teenagemutantninjabayless on Jul 5, 2009 3:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
true enough.
there are ALWAYS options in this league, to maneuver. if the assumption is that we are going to hang onto all of our current players through the trade deadline, then you are correct. If we max out LMA, Roy and Oden, then we are looking at those three representing 75% of our cap space in 2-3 years, right? I am just not so sure that is going to happen.
by The Penguin on Jul 5, 2009 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am far from a cap expert...
so forgive me if I am making no sense.
That said, I still say we wait for a better option via trade or sign and trade at PG, if we are gonna go big.
by The Penguin on Jul 5, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
THIS IS THE OFF-SEASON to make a move...
At the latest will be the trade deadline next season. But, but it has to be done prior to extending Roy and Alrdidge. So I do fully expect Portland to add some great talent between now and the all-star break…
This off-season could STILL produce huge improvements over last seasons roster. I still believe Portland will add TWO key players, via free agency and trade… At PG Portland could still land Devin Harris, Kirk Hinrich, Andre Miller, Ramon Sessions, Raymond Felton, or even Mike Conley, there definitely are options, all of which would give Portland a “different” look than that of having Blake in the lineup. At PF Portland could add a tough rebounding post player like Brandon Bass, David Lee, Glen Davis, Leon Powe or Jason Maxiell… Paul Millsap will be to expensive, so let someone else have him…..
Obviously It would be more exciting to say that Portland got Devin Harris and Brandon Bass or Kirk Hinrich and David Lee… But I also believe that Andre Miller and Jason Maxiell or Raymond Felton and Antonio McDyess would be an upgrade over Blake and Travis, too
by Portland Dynasty on Jul 5, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miller aint comin
A little birdie told me
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
by Kelsoballa on Jul 6, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: next year's FA class
It is immaterial that the 2010 free agent crop will be better, as we will have no cap space to attract any of them.
This team desperately, desperately needs for Blake to not be PG1 this fall, and it can’t just be that Bayless has been promoted. All other concerns are secondary, but something needs to be done with this cap money, as we’ll never have it again.
by samuelleejackson on Jul 5, 2009 3:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Bayless promotion may solve things
if he goes all Aaron Brooks on the team—which I expect him to do.
by lurtsman on Jul 5, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a gamble!
I agree with allot of your take; but can we count on Webster? If he was healthy then no debate but he is not healthy… Don’t we have to make our tweaks thinking we won’t have him available? If he plays, great if not then we’re prepared. We have to spend our cap space by the trade deadline or we won’t get another chance for a while.
entering the window of opportunity!
by 77again on Jul 5, 2009 3:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We can't waste this opportunity to improve.
This is our last chance for probably a decade to make a substantial move to upgrade the team without giving up a key player in return. After the Feb trading deadline we won’t have cap space again for many, many years. If it should ultimately turn out that we only acquired a good future tradable asset, at least we will have that option in the bank to use down the road somewhere. This is truly a case of use it, or lose it.
I believe we will go for a free agent now (I’d target Odom – although he would be difficult to pry him away from LA, but we might be able to offer a lot more money than LA would be willing to do). If KP knew there was a great lopsided trade available now we wouldn’t have pursued Turk, so I doubt there’s much opportunity there this summer. The chance of finding a great lopsided trade during the season before the Feb trading deadline (if we do nothing this summer) is even less likely.
I like Odom now, combined with a trade of Outlaw this summer. After 6 years we have seen everything that Travis has and it obviously isn’t enough to be a starter. I also don’t like Travis as a backup for a championship contender (poor defense, poor rebounding for his size, poor passer that often ignores an open 3-pt shooter, better performance as an undersized, non-banger PF than as SF – but that is not what we need). Batum will hopefully be very good in a couple of years, but he needs to be a backup now as he develops. We should discount Martell entirely until it is proven that he can come back sometime next year (he still hasn’t been cleared to run and jump on his foot – which is a very bad sign). We need a starting SF that can score, play defense, rebound, and provide a bit of toughness. Odom can do that if Nate can keep him motivated, plus he can fill the backup PF spot behind LMA. Can we get him out of LA? It may be doubtful, but I would throw money at him at now and see what happens. Plus LA would be significantly hurt if they lose him, and that would also benefit us.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 5, 2009 4:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
which is why LA won't let him go.
Portland would be the worst place for Odom to go from the L*kers perspective.
by BrewDude on Jul 5, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been wondering about the apparent obession by the Blazers to land a SF.
I think it means that there is already a plan to trade Travis and that there is no confidence that Martell will be back or viable.
If so that leaves Batum, Rudy and Roy to cover all the SF minutes and that is not good. I think the SF search is because of martell, sadly.
by raoulduke on Jul 5, 2009 4:27 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree.
I suspect they may have a deal for Travis lined up (or at the very least have given up on him) but need to use the cap space first. Plus as said above, I think you have to (unfortunately) completely discount Martell in our planning for now.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 5, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lmar Odom will put us way over the cap
No Can Do.
by oregonslee on Jul 5, 2009 4:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lamar Odom as a PF
so we have a reliable frontcourt even if Oden keeps fighting foul trouble, even with Odom at PF and LaMarcus at C.
I think he’s the best player KP can sign right now
Nobody expects a Spanish Acquisition!
by DaniBCN on Jul 5, 2009 4:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
most def.
If the Blazers were able to steal Odom from the Lakers, it’s virtually a no-brainer. He would give the Blazers an incredible front court and it would hurt the Lakers a lot.
unfortunately, our resident Laker expert, Timbo, doesn’t think Lamar wants to play with us.
by PoliSam on Jul 5, 2009 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
and i love guys, like him, that can play more than one position. he’s a great passer, and would work the p&r almost as well as turk, i think.
by The Penguin on Jul 5, 2009 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We do need to use the money now..........
But not on some average PG that is marginally better at best than what we have or another SF as I agree we are good to go at that spot. I think we shoud add a big man and the man is Paul Millsap from Utah. He is only 24 years old can play both forward spots, strong rebonder,good defender, and can score(13.5 pts and 8.5 rebs). HE had 19 double doubles in a row last year when Boozer went down and I think he would fit in very well with our team. It is a excellant insurance policy if one of our big guys got hurt for any lengh of time(and in Odens case that is highly likely). He has a big upside and the Jazz all ready are way over the cap so they might not want to match the money the Blazers could give him.
by Planet29 on Jul 5, 2009 4:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad someone threw his name out there
I may be off base, but this offseason I have been thinking we could use a banger to spell LA with a different style, or even to play along side him. It would also help the team when Oden gets into nightly foul trouble. I think Millsap presents an interesting option. I also wonder if Utah would have rather Boozer not pick up his option.
by almostawesome on Jul 5, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we need a good PF but not THAT good a PF
egos and contracts mess up chemistry more than crazy a-holes.
I just don’t think its a good idea to get a big time PF who’s gonna potentially take minutes from LA and have a contract thats close to his. the guy is sensitive about stuff like that. we need a banger to come in for 10 or 12 minutes a game. Milsap should be a starter who should be playing more like 35 – 40 min. thats what puts Utah in such an awkward position right now.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Jul 5, 2009 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree,
in principle, but would Milsap be OK with the role we’d have to offer him?
by The Penguin on Jul 5, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice presentation.
Lamar would be great, but he ain’t coming…
Reports in Lakerland are that LAL has offered him $24 or $25M/3 years, which should be sufficient to get him to stay.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Jul 5, 2009 5:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So we offer $50M for 5 years.
I don’t know if that would do it but its worth a try. We were ready to give Turk that much, so I don’t see any reason not to do the same for Lamar. I think Lamar is actually worth more than Turk anyway.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 5, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to Storyteller's website
Odom made $14.1M last year. About $2.5M was from bonuses and a trade kicker, so his actual yearly salary was about $11.6M. LA has Bird Rights, so even though they are over the cap they can still offer more than the $10M per year we can offer. But apparently they have only offered about $8M. So if we offer $10M and LA chooses not to match Odom would be looking at a reduction from $14.1M to either $8M (Lakers) or $10M (Portland). In that case Odom might take our deal. LA would probably match but it’s worth a try. I’d give him a 24 hour take it or leave it offer and see what happens. Who knows, maybe he doesn’t like the idea of Artest coming to town or he’s tired of coming off the bench.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jul 5, 2009 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we should look elsewhere
Odom and Lee are using us and it’s a waist of time. Turk has thrown us into a spin and these guys would probably do the same and it will take too much time. We need to go get some talent and the clock is ticking. But I agree make an offer give 24 hours and move on quickly.
entering the window of opportunity!
by 77again on Jul 5, 2009 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need to make the offer just to drive his price up
Hope it would at least force the Lakers to spend more. Its not like the Lakers will be under the cap any time soon to do the same to us.
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Jul 5, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if...
we were to throw in a Cadillac made of Nerds and Gumii Bears?
by The Penguin on Jul 5, 2009 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like nate robinson
He isn’t that tall, but the guy has heart and can shoot the rock.
Get out of Joel's way or he will eat your freaking face!
by Prezthrilla on Jul 5, 2009 5:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I just don't want to use it AND lose it
I would hate to use the cap space just because we have it and do something that messes up our team chemistry. I think it’s really more important than people talk about. Lack of chemistry is what can make a team of great players awful, and good chemistry can make a team without many stars win a title. I think there has to be something we can do, but I know that teams have freaked out and gotten people that make their team worse.
I totally agree that SF is not not not what we should be after.
by twggyy on Jul 5, 2009 6:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree about not using cap space just to use it
But I do think that the Blazers should look to upgrade at SF. Batum? Probably a year or two away from becoming all that he can. Martell? He’s a wildcard because of his foot. We all hope that he comes back this year but where’s the guarantee? Outlaw? He’s not a starting SF for the Blazers, the team has tried that several times and he’s never been able to deliver.
by Storyteller on Jul 5, 2009 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Also, thank you for posting that video of Martell. He is so much more than a three point shooter.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
by Seijeff on Jul 5, 2009 8:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree on our three SF options being good
but I wonder if there is already a trade in place with Travis and we all wonder if Martell is going to be able to play.
I like the idea of Odom, but he’s too much money for a back-up PF who can play some SF.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blazers make a run at Marvin Williams who is a RFA.
PG though – that is the big issue.
put a body on 'em
by RayBourque on Jul 5, 2009 11:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't have to tell me.
I think Martell “is” the answer at the 3 period. The way he was playing before the injury was so promising, he at least deserves the opportunity to show he is back.
I struggle sitting on my hands... don't you?
by RoysBlazers on Jul 6, 2009 12:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We chose not to move at the deadline. Why now?
There were better options at the trade deadline, including the option that Orlando just took (VC). Yes, those options meant we would lose a player or two… but we have to lose some players if we add starting talent. You can’t add a SF and keep Rudy, Martell, Batum, and Travis. It will not work.
All-in-all, if we waited then, waiting now doesn’t seem like a big deal. The team will be exciting, competitive, and cohesive. Waiting a year gives us more answers and then we can choose a better direction.
Furthermore, waiting for a chance to land the star of a rebuilding (Gasol, Artest, etc) would be amazing for us. I think that potential exceeds anything we could do in Free Agency.
by Quik_Baller on Jul 6, 2009 12:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts today
• I don’t like any of the remaining free agents due to asking price and team fit
• I still want to trade Blake and Outlaw for Kirk
• Is Batum/Roy/Cunningham enough at the SF to get the Blazers through the struggling stages of Webster’s return? I think so, but if KP does not, I want Grant Hill with our extra dough.
• I’ve been convincing myself more and more we are not signing a backup 4 this offseason. Instead, Pendergraph and Cunningham are going to battle it out for that backup 4 spot. If KP thinks otherwise(likely), I want something cheap like McDyess to save money for the trade deadline…
• Like Quik Baller said above, the trade deadline seems very attractive right now, to ADD to what he said, during the summer months teams on the verge of rebuilding have hope for the next season. Come trade deadline, some of those same teams will have lost all hope and will be more willing to deal their stars to start rebuilding.
In summary:
-Kirk for Blake and Trav
-Wait till trade deadline
-Sign Nate McMillan
-Eat lots of Otter Pops
Thank you that is all
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
by Kelsoballa on Jul 6, 2009 1:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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