Creating an Offensive Advantage

by seablaz on Jul 5, 2009 9:44 AM PDT Comment 19 comments

Several analysts mentioned that the playoffs this year demonstrated that Portland relies too heavily on Brandon Roy to create offense. The playoffs come at the end of the year, when players are weary. The jump shots that were falling at the beginning of the year seem to rattle in and out a bit more. And the playoffs are much more physical so the players have to deal with the additional challenge of scoring while absorbing an extra bump or grab or both. These challenges separate the teams that have succesful offense schemes from those who rely too heavily on the razor thin edge of the talent of their players alone.

I always felt that succesful playoff teams have an offensive scheme that creates an inherent advantage. In other words, they have a play or player or system that makes sure they are never playing 5 on 5 or competing on a level playing field. These teams can rely on these plays to give them an advantage that doesn't go away when you are tired or being pushed more than normal in the playoffs.

Creating systems that demand a double team or switch are great ways to create an offensive advantage. Orlando could dump the ball down to Dwight Howard, which demanded a Cleveland double team. Howard could go 1:1 or pass out of the double to an open 3 point shooter. It doesn't matter how you defend that play... if you have to double team, Orlando will always have an advantage. Orlando built their team around that offensive advantage. Cleveland recognized this and obtained Shaq this offseason to try to neutralize that play.

Note that these offensive advantage plays don't just create an advantage for a particular player, they create an advantage for the whole team. They open up a myriad of possibilities in which ever player can be a threat if needed. If your play doesn't open up the offense for the team, it won't create an offensive advantage for long, as other teams will adapt and shut it down.

Another example of a play that was run ceaselessly against the Blazers to create an offensive advantage is the pick and roll. Done with the right players, the pick and roll creates an instant offense advantage for the team running it. If you don't pull your forward out, the guard can shoot over the top of the pick. If you do, the forward can roll to the basket. At best, you can help to defend the rolling forward but that opens up other players. You can't just guard one person or one possibility. It opens up a myriad of possibilities for the offense.

My problem with the Blazers is that they don't seem to have any plays that consistantly create an inherent offensive advantage. And this kills them in the playoffs. It was a common observation that "if you shut down Brandon Roy, you shut down the Blazers" offensively in the playoffs.

The problem is that the only player they have that can consistantly create an offensive advantage is Brandon Roy, by drawing double teams when he penetrates. Brandon can penetrate and finish so consistently that teams are forced to collapse on him opening things up for the rest of the team.

But Brandon doesn't create an advantage for the team because he rarely passes out of the double team. He shoots through it. Most of the time is AMAZING at it. But the Blazers cannot win on that alone. Come playoff time , Brandon is the only Blazer who can score consistently without an inherent advantage and he doesn't create one for others. And even if he could, it takes so much energy for him to create that advantage that we couldn't run it over and over the way you can a well run pick and roll.

The more i started thinking about this, the more i came to like Hedo Turkgolu, and his "side pick and roll". He could have helped to create an offensive advantage that would benefit everyone on the court. Likewise, the less i liked Gerald Wallace and David Lee. Gerald would be great for our perimeter defense, but he does not contribute to creating a play or system that gives the Blazers an inherent advantage. Likewise, David Lee gives us neither a defensive lift or an offensive advantage. Both Wallace and Lee can score... once other players have created an offensive advantage.

Unfortunately, i don't see much out there in the free agent market, other than Hedo, that will give the Blazers the offensive advantage they need. Is Heinrich fast enough and a good enough finisher to consistently draw double teams? Will Oden develop into a post force that demands a double team? Will LaMarcus toughen up and pound the post until teams are forced to double? How can we avoid a repeat of this year's playoffs at the offensive end?
I'm just not seeing it, so as far as i can tell, unless we pull off an imbalanced trade, we are in for another succesful season followed by an early playoff departure.

Thoughts?

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Don't have answers to your excellent post

But I would agree we need that scorer you’re talking about. Seems like guys like Deavin Harris or Monta Ellis can do the job. They are pretty tough for young guys and plenty fast. Both can score like crazy when needed. It’s just a thought.

by oregonslee on Jul 5, 2009 9:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering if anyone had brought up Monta Ellis.

I think he would be available considering the injury and the draft of Curry.

by Bud Dwyer on Jul 5, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess they would pursue him

if they thought he could really help us. Who knows what these guys are thinking.

by oregonslee on Jul 5, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was all over Ellis last year when he had problems in G. St.

Until I read this.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Monta-Ellis-289/

This is from his H.S. days, so he may have improved but…

“Weaknesses
…He loves to dribble and dribble and dribble and then dribble some more. AAU ball has basically left him no grasp or comprehension of team basketball or fundamentals, and he probably wouldn’t understand what’s wrong with that if you tried to explain it to him.

His biggest problem for the short and possibly long term is that he has no NBA position. He’s a 6-3 SG with absolutely no PG skills whatsoever. That will limit his potential to contribute minutes initially unless he ends up on a horrible team. In the long term, though, he might not have the instincts or mentality to even become sufficient in this area. When he does try, his passing skills are average to below average. He forces the issue constantly, freezing out his teammates and showing absolutely no interest in getting anyone else involved. Although he is very young, his basketball IQ appears to be limited at this point, running into brick walls time after time while his teammates wave their hands and shake their heads in disgust. He does not appear to be interested in making an assist unless it’s of the Sportscenter top 10 variety. He will often bring the ball up the court and immediately jack up a shot, before even looking in the direction of his teammates. The concept of running set plays is completely foreign to him, not being capable of doing anything in a half-court offense at this point except create his own shot off the dribble or drive and dish after drawing a crowd. He looks disinterested in what’s happening around him unless the ball is in his hands, as his off the ball movement is extremely poor.

The release point on his jump shot is inconsistent because of the lift he gets on his J, and therefore his shot can be a little streaky at times. He shoots it different every time, meaning he’ll sometimes miss very badly. As noted above already, he does not excel on the catch and shoot, but what he gets into a groove during a game he’s absolutely lights out.

Although most scouts I’ve talked to about high school basketball prospects don’t really seem to care about this, his defense is horrendous. Ellis puts absolutely no effort into playing on this side of the ball, and just doesn’t seem to understand the importance of stopping his man. He gambles on steals (he can be very quick to get out in the passing lanes), gets lost on rotations, gives up on plays completely once he gets beat, gets torched on the perimeter in man to man defense and refuses to rotate or play any type of off the ball defense. He did show some glimpses of potential in the all-star games when his back was against the ball and he had to perform well to have any shot at being able to declare for the draft, but nothing when he had the choice. He’s got all the tools to be an excellent defender if he puts his mind to it, but he has to put his mind to it first.

His intangibles are also somewhat questionable. Ellis has consistently shown a poor attitude and immaturity, pouting when things don’t go his way or when the ball isn’t in his hands for more than 5 seconds. He refused to shake anyone’s hand at the end of the McDonalds game, because he was mad at his coach for not giving him more minutes at the PG spot (see links). His body language on the court looks very poor at times, while his quotes in the media make him look like an extremely cocky and arrogant young man. If he’s already so full of himself at this point, when basically no one outside of NBA draft circles and Mississippi State fans knows his name, what’s he going to be like in 5 years?…"

Ellis is great fun to watch, but this sounds like a cancer to me. At the very least, not a KP or Nate kind of guy.

by parkinglotj on Jul 5, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did

but these days a post only lasts a few hours before it gets swept out for more andre miller brandon bass david lee recycleposts

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jul 5, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's a great slasher with a pretty crappy 3

He should be quick enough, though, to be able to stay in front of the quicker PGs.

by ninjasocks on Jul 5, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

JET

Draft Cole Aldrich 2010

by jlarose78 on Jul 5, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Excellent post.

It makes me think about trades and free agency in a new way.

www.sumnerlawpc.com
www.CenterForVetRights.com

by NoGame on Jul 5, 2009 11:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Greg Oden - A Call to Arms

by as11osu on Jul 5, 2009 11:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hear hear!

by Montavilla Steve on Jul 5, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Offense will take care of itself...

Right now, Portland has two great shooters (Rudy and Martell), two post threats (Oden and LMA), one phenomenal all-around player (Roy), two slashers (Bayless and Outlaw) and a heady point guard. Portland also has defensive minded small forward and center (Batum and Pryz.) Point being, our offensive players far outsweigh our defensive players. If Portland can learn to protect Oden better and if Oden can learn to avoid silly fouls, Portland’s offense will be much improved. Oden demands a double team (ala Howard) everytime he touches the ball and keeping him on the court will really expand the offense capabilities of the first unit. Also, an improved defense (with Oden swatting shots and Portland taking care of the pick and roll) will generate more than a couple cheap baskets.

by da34shadow on Jul 5, 2009 12:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Will LaMarcus toughen up and pound the post until teams are forced to double?

Good points. As I was reading your take on “Brandon is the only option to force the double team” I immediately thought “wait, no he’s not, we’ve also got LMA down in the post” but I think the reason why Aldridge wasn’t more effective in the playoffs was the presense of YAO MING under the basket. Against any other post-season matchup I think we would all have come away with a different opinion of how good LMA can be as a “2nd option” to Brandon. LaMarcus certainly “stepped him game up” during the regular season, even though it may not appear that way, if folks are just looking at the stats.

But you were also correct on the reason why KP/Nate went so hard after Hedo.Turk was the one guy who could’ve accelerated Oden’s offensive learning curve, utilizing that side “pick and dive” that he did so well with Howard.. There may be a PG out there who can fill the P&R “role” like Hedo (Sessions, MIller) but unfortunately they don’t provide the shooting that Portland needs to play “off” of Roy when he gets on a roll

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 5, 2009 12:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

There is one guy for sure...

…who can create these offensive advantages with regularity – Steve Nash. Besides Chris Paul (who we will never get) Nash is the best pick n’ roll PG in the league. For all those who say he is a running only PG are crazy, since any decent PG will look good ina running game. But Nash has a masterful ability to run a half court offense when things slow down. Look how much he makes EVERYONE aorund him better with his ability to control the offense and create these “advantages”
I’m not necessarily suggestiing we go after him but in response to this post, if we did acquire him, he would ceretainly be able to creat the “advantages” all the time – as well as mentor Bayless from one of the best PGs to ever play, not a bad deal (for 3yrs MAX)

by venjance on Jul 5, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But Nash has a masterful ability to run a half court offense when things slow down

Are you sure Terry Porter would agree with that analysis?

Nobody questions Nash as an offensive genius, it’s the defensive end of the court that makes him more of a suspect than a target. Add in his age and his bad back and you have to weigh the risk/reward

Giving up talent, taking on a big contract contract…probably below 50% chance of even being discussed by KP and Nate. But you never know

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 5, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't buy into a word you just said.

You mention ‘systems that create advantages’ and then use players that demand double teams to support your analysis. Then you say that Roy doesn’t pass out of double teams when he gets 5 assists per game. He would have pulled 5 assists per game against Houston but there was NOBODY else on the team that could hit a shot. You also fail to mention Portland’s most efficient offense in the league.

What I believe Portland needs is another chance to not cower at the thought of playoffs and for Oden to have a year of not coming off MF surgery. The offense is fine. The defense needs help (but not loads). There aren’t a lot of great players to go around. I’m not wholly convinced the Blazers need any.

Everybody was a baby once, Arthur. Oh, sure, maybe not today, or even yesterday. But once. Babies, chum: tiny, dimpled, fleshy mirrors of our us-ness, that we parents hurl into the future, like leathery footballs of hope. And you've got to get a good spiral on that baby, or evil will make an interception.

by shenanigans on Jul 5, 2009 2:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

playoff offense <> regular season offense

Roy averaged 2.8 assists per game in the playoffs despite playing over 80% of the minutes.

Portland also finished 13th out of 16 playoff teams in terms of points scored. Slow paced teams like San Antonio and Houston scored significantly more. Houston for example, scored 8 points less per game in the playoffs than the regular season. The Blazers scored 12 less. Houston scored 1 more point than Portland over the regular season, but scored about 4 more during the playoffs.

3 or 4 points per game matters… alot.

The Blazers offense was fine during the regular season. It was anemic in the playoffs. It’s easy to say that the team just needs to play better but i think you need to look beyond that and ask if they were asked to do more than they were capable of.

I agree that the defense badly needs help. My point is that when we consider our offensive needs we need to think about what our system needs and how they fit into it.

LMA is great when someone else creates the advantage. If his man leaves him, he’ll nail that 18 footer 8 times out of 10. But he needs his man to leave him.

Nash is a great example of what i’m talking about. Imagine Nash at point. Roy on the wing. Webster in the corner, LMA foul line extended and Oden next to the basket. Nash has proven that he can break down his man and finish in traffic. Defenses feel like they HAVE to commit to him when he drives. When they do the are certain to leave someone open. Brandon or Martel for a 3. LMA for a mid range jumper. Oden for a dunk. All are in position to do what they do well.

by seablaz on Jul 5, 2009 4:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But your replacement does exactly what Roy does already.

Breaks down the defense and dishes. Or finishes. The series I watched saw Roy dish to players that played tentatively. A lot of players. Very tentatively. Those guys either passed up or missed shots. That is what lost the series IMO. Houston is a very good defensive team and Portland played tentatively. Houston was also the worst matchup in the league for Portland with two guys to adequately defend Portlands best player. Who else has 1 player, let alone 2, that are competent to guard Roy?

I don’t think that kind of offensive matchup problem, barring injury, will happen again.

by shenanigans on Jul 5, 2009 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its called a PG

They often times create an offensive advantage by way of a good pass which leads to good shots.

Patience :)

by TheGreatDane17 on Jul 5, 2009 4:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think so

Many PGs in the league (including both of Portlands last year) don’t create that type of advantage. They can initiate the offense. they can make passes in the flow of the offense. they can drive and kick. but they don’t create that offensive advantage that starts the defense at a disadvantage.

It doesn’t have to be a point guard either. I was getting excited about Hedo because he could be that player for us, running the pick and roll. Then the point guard just needs to do the stuff above + hit the 3 and blake can do that.

There are many free agents and obtainable players with nice offensive stats who won’t help us given the supporting cast we have.

Imagine Blake, Roy, Wallace, LMA, Oden. How are we going to break down defenses and create an advantage? Blake, Wallace, LMA and Oden don’t demand double teams or run the pick and roll well; they feed off others. defenses will key in on Roy, muscle up on the rest and make “everyone-but-roy” beat them. When the post season comes around, i don’t think that’s a winning strategy for us.

by seablaz on Jul 5, 2009 7:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs