Is the glass half full, or is it half empty?
Crazy days here at B Edge. Half the inmates are on the verge of calling for KP's head. At least half seem to be upset at the prospect of Turkoglu in black and red.
Has KP suddenly lost his touch?
On one hand, the ambivalence, and even anger, seems understandable. Most of us went into the off-season believing that the teams top two priorities were an upgrade at the point and at back-up PF. A few were advocating for more scoring from the SF position, but most were willing to develop Nic and Martell. Furthermore, most of us were more concerned about improving the teams defense, rather than trying to improve its already efficient offense.
Given this context, it is not surprising that many have leaped to the conclusion that our once brilliant GM has suddenly lost his mind. Spending all our precious cap space on a slow, 30 year old SF, who is at best inconsistent on the defensive end, doesn't seem like a very good idea. I understand this reaction.
Maybe a bit more humility would be advised
On the other hand, it is pretty surprising that so many B Edgers have been so quick to abandon the good ship, HMS Pritchard. After all, KP has compiled a truly outstanding track record over the past three years. It flat out amazes me how many fans are quick to substitute their own judgement for KP's. Personally, I am happy to admit that KP knows a heck of a lot more than I do. He has access to far more information than any of us. He is the guy with the "golden gut" who has been so successful at identifying talent and figuring out how to get it to Portland.
I may not know what the plan is, but I am sure that KP has one. KP seems to be playing three dimensional chess when most GMs are playing checkers. I don't want to get too carried away in my praise, KP puts on his pants one leg at a time, just like the rest of us. It is possible that he can make a mistake, and it is even possible that he could make a very large mistake. However, given his track record, doesn't it make sense to give KP the benefit of the doubt? Rather than criticizing every move that we didn't anticipate, why don't we try to understand his strategy as the moves unfold? Criticizing KP seems like the height of hubris.
What is the deal with Hedo?
As I mentioned above, Hedo seems like the answer to the wrong question. We need defense and improved play at PG and PF. My guess is that KP concluded that he couldn't really improve our PG situation through Free Agency. The top three PGs are 36, 34, and 32 years old. Given the every increasing number of uber-quick, young PGs in the league, those guys are extremely likely to struggle on the defensive end.
After thinking about it for the past couple of days, I think Hedo is an excellent example of KP thinking outside of the box. If you can't find a traditional PG, then how about addressing a need for more play-making by acquiring a point forward? If you throw out the position labels and start thinking about team needs, Turkoglu starts making a lot of sense in a hurry. Team needs:
1) Playoff experience: more than the rest of the squad combined;
2) An additional scorer who can get his own shot and perform under pressure;
3) Reduce the teams over-reliance on Roy's isolation moves;
4) An additional play-maker who can get easy shots for his teammates;
5) A player who can run the pick and roll effectively:
Hedo is "Trout Plus." He can score like Trout. He can spread the floor like Trout. He can take big shots like Trout; but he can also do much more: he can bring the ball up court, he can drive to the hoop, above all, he can set-up his teammates. Turkoglu has an extremely high BBIQ. Unlike Travis who often stopped the movement of the ball, Hedo is a consummate set-up man.
KP: "Above all else, Hedo is a player who will make his teammates better"
This is the money quote. What does KP mean? I think it is likely that he means the following:
1) Hedo helps Roy: by providing another ball-handler and scorer Hedo takes weight off of Roy and makes it harder for teams to double. If Roy is handling PG responsibilities, Hedo can bring the ball up-court.
2) Hedo helps Greg: Hedo is going to get Greg easy scoring opportunities off of good passes and the side pick and roll. D Howard is not much better in the low post than Greg, and yet he is scoring nearly 20 pts a game. Much of the credit should go to Hedo.
3) Hedo helps LMA: opponents often sagged off Nic to double LMA. They won't be able to do that now.
4) Hedo helps Blake: Hedo will draw much more defensive attention and more spot up shots for Steve.
5) Hedo helps Bayless: Bayless will have an easier time getting on the floor for minutes with the starters with Hedo able to shoulder some of the distribution responsibilities.
6) Hedo may even help Batum: Hedo may help mentor Nic on the offensive end and help him learn how to become our next generation point forward.
7) Hedo will help Rudy: by shouldering some of the play-making duties, Hedo may make it possible for the Blazers to play with Roy and Rudy together in the back-court.
The only players who will not be helped are Trout and Martell who are likely to see their minutes substantially reduced. If Hedo is signed, Trout is almost certainly gone. Webster is a big question mark, and the team really can't count on him until he proves the foot is healed.
All in all, I think Hedo is a brilliant, if unconventional, solution to many of the teams needs. Yesterday on Wheels at Work, the Sacramento play by play guy said that he was certain that Turkoglu would put the team over the top. I think that sounds about right. If that is the future, we make look back at this as one of KP's best moves.
3 recs |
17 comments
Comments
I don't think KP is done
As you said, if Hedo is signed then Trout is gone. Great. But to where, for whom? I LOVE Hedo but I know the Blazers need to improve vastly in every aspect to keep up with the Denvers, Houstons, San Anronios and L@kers of the league. Let’s not evaluate KP until he says he is done.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
by RDreamer on Jul 3, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
If we do sign the Turkish Merc, KP will be judged about what he does after that, because Hedo’s signing begs for additional moves.
If he can get a real good PG in addition, the pain of signing Turk for 4-5 yrs will be numbed a bit for me.
by Furious Styles on Jul 3, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want Hedo just for his nick name possibilities
The Turkish Merc… sweet.
That and unlike so many others I feel like he is a VERY good fit for us. If it backfires and we look like chumps for signing him for so much, well I can live with that. KP has done no wrong yet… It’s hard to see so many turning on him just for him trying to make us better.
by Cool Hand Roy on Jul 3, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With Hedo on board
I’d put us as 3rd in the West behind LA and SA. Houston will be lucky to make the playoffs this year now, and Denver didn’t add any major pieces, and may even lose 1 or 2.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 3, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
San Antonio has a lot more questions than we do.
I think the Blazers are a good bet to battle LA for best record, even if we don’t get another PG.
The Lakers are probably slightly better with Artest than Ariza, for this season, and this season only.
Bryant, Odom, Artest, and Fisher are all on the back side of thirty.
By 2010-2011, I think the Blazers are ready to reach the top.
by upper left corner on Jul 3, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No argument from me
My point wasn’t that this is the only move needed. My point is that Turkoglu makes sense when you look at overall team needs. A better defensive PG would still be nice. So would a veteran banger, although I think Turkoglu and Pendergraph combined make that need much less a priority than it was a couple of weeks ago.
by upper left corner on Jul 3, 2009 10:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Someone (or 2) at the 3 will have to go
and I’m thinking Outlaw and Martell. It seems that the lack of positive news about Martells foot may be a sign of bigger problems. Do we keep Martell on the bench another year if his foot is not ready? The need for Outlaw is all but moot if we sign Hedo. That leaves Rudy at 2/3, Batum at 3 and Hedo at 3/4.
Some have suggested a starting lineup with Broy at PG and Rudy at the 2 but I don’t think this will happen, but it would be interesting to try. The problem would be 4 starters with less than desirable defensive skills.
How much backup 4 can Hedo play? That would help Rudy get satisfactory minutes (at least as many as last season). If Hedo gets the 3 spots starters minutes (say 30+), what’s left for Batum and Rudy?
To summarize: Wade too quick, Kobe too skilled, LeBron too physical - Batum
by Ltlgto on Jul 3, 2009 10:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand your comment about "four starters with less than desirable defensive skills"
Greg: good defender, will become excellent;
LMA: good 1 on 1 defender, needs to improve help defense and rotations;
B Roy: I think he will become better if he is not carrying such a huge offensive load. B Roy is a good defender when he is focused.
Turkoglu: isn’t a bad defender all the time. I watched almost all of the Playoffs, Turkoglu defended Pierce, LeBron, and Kobe. He didn’t shut anybody down, but he didn’t suck. I think he will be even better if he is not carrying as much offensive load as he was in Orlando.
PG: If Blake is our starter, I agree that is a problem. Blake is OK against about half of the PGs in the league. He really struggles against the quick guys. Bayless is quite a bit better, although very green. Once Bayless figures out the hand-checking rule and quits getting tagged with rookie calls, he is going to be quite good. He needs to work on his recognition and team defense, but that is primarily a matter of experience.
by upper left corner on Jul 3, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point of the"less than desirable defensive skills"
stems from the upgrade at PG and backup PF for better defenders that most of the BE’rs seemed to be clamoring for before Hedo became the object of the Blazers desire. With Hinrich/Batum and a PF banger, (if that’s the way we went), seemed to be a defensive strategy.
The addition of Hedo coupled with the loss of Batum as the starter is a big blow to our defense alone.
I thought Hedo did pretty well against Pierce but was no match on Kobe or Lebron who are both much quicker than Pierce. LMA does pretty good. Broy, like you said, may have a little more energy to play better ‘D’ with Hedo on the team. I can’t see Rudy guarding a 1 and he isn’t the best on 2’s either.
To summarize: Wade too quick, Kobe too skilled, LeBron too physical - Batum
by Ltlgto on Jul 3, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding back-up 4 and Rudy....
….I think Hedo can play the bulk of the back-up four minutes. He is bigger and stronger than Trout. He is not a great rebounder, but I think he is slightly better than Trout. In certain situations, we may need Pendergraph in there for more of the banger mentality.
Regarding Rudy, my guess is that they are going to experiment heavily with a lineup of Roy, Rudy, Turk, LMA. GO. That is a huge lineup. All three perimeter guys are good passers, and that line-up will give us mismatches at at least two positions. Offensively, I think that line-up will be outstanding. The question will be defense. Can Roy defend the 1? Maybe if he doesn’t have to carry as much offensive load he can do it. My guess is that Rudy stays at about 24 minutes.
Trout and Martell are the losers. I think you try to package Trout and Blake for a better PG,
by upper left corner on Jul 3, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he has to play most of the backup 4
only way to get enough PT for Batum and Rudy, not to mention the fact we have no non-rookie backup 4s. Plus, I like the potential matchup problems it creates with him taking 4s off the pick and roll
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Jul 3, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nash, Hinrick, or Rubio
I’m with you, I think KP knows exactly what he is doing and has a plan.
If we sign Hedo and trade Outlaw, Webster and Bayless for Nash, we could possibly win a couple championships over the next 3 years, but then Nash would be done.
Hinrick would help us be competitive longer, we could be knocking at the door for 5 years and maybe get 1 or 2 championships.
With Rubio, it might take another year or two to be knocking at the door, but once we get there we might have a decade like the Lakers in the 90s where we win 5 times.
KP has those and lots of other options, it will be interesting and exciting to what he puts together.
by Caddco on Jul 3, 2009 10:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I want no part of Nash
Having Roy and Turkoglu means we do not need a “pure Point.” We need a scoring PG who can be effective off the ball. Blake is a good spot up shooter. Bayless if he can find his shot will be even better because he is a multi-talented scoring threat.
by upper left corner on Jul 3, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The L*kers in the 90's
The Lakers didn’t win a championship in the 90’s. What a beautiful decade.
Gimmicks don't make dynasties
by WarEaglePDX on Jul 3, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A few days ago I was definitely glass half empty, but I am now firmly half full and on the Hedo bandwagon.
I think we will definitely see and upgrade at the point through a trade, but think that we will see KP do something unorthodox here. Now that we will have two play makers in the starting line-up, what we will really want is a defensive stopper, no matter how good he is at anything else. I think it will be a PG that very few of us have thought of, unless Hinrich is still available. Now he would just fit here even better.
by dario argento on Jul 3, 2009 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we need a PG who is a scorer who can play off the ball and who can play solid defense....
……to me, that sounds like Bayless with a relocated jumper.
by upper left corner on Jul 3, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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