The Hidden Value of a High Profile Free Agent, Why I Love Tedo Hurkoglu (Hedo JD 7/3)

I don’t post often at all, I know I am just beating a dead horse, and I know the rules of engagement on BE. This was intended to be a comment on a thread about why signing Hedo could benefit us in many different ways. Unfortunately it ended up longer then intended, and there was no place to nudge my thread in and have it be remotely relevant. And, of course, I dont want to fill this post with common themes from other Hedo discussions, so I will try and omit them the best that I can.

Just to throw this out there, I am not in favor of signing Hedo, but if I was...

3 and 30 is a contract I would enjoy for Hedo. I don’t mind the $10M a year as long as it’s a shorter and moderately flexible contract. Thank you

Let’s just stockpile him and trade him on the 15th of December if it doesn't work. I’m kidding of course, kind of...

Then again.. it isn't like our GM hasn't done anything unconventional lately has he? Oh, I forgot, our GM happens to be Kevin Pritchard.

But who isn't to say we could use Hedo as a rental, and possibly an asset at the trade deadline. Especially to match salaries in an offer for a targeted highly paid veteran. Considering most of our core salaries are around or fewer than $4 million, and the only real big contract we talk about matching up for a deal is Pryzbilla. There is no way we could get away with trading him, he is far too important to the structure and effectiveness of our defense in the paint. That is the foundation that championships are built on.

3 years would give the Blazers the flexibility we need. We can see how our parts develop, while at the same time improving in the short term. I would use 3YRS/$30M  as a starting point. I say starting point because the terms of this deal are much lower then what Hedo and his agent are fighting for, if the Blazer Management is really after Hedo that much I can live with a bigger number. It just depends on how much money and playing time we want to commit to him.

Hedo's floor right now is much higher then anyone else we have competing for SF minutes. For the most part, we can get a steady contributor until someone in Portland figures out what direction we want to head in, and which of our young talent we decide we want to lock up for the future.

Say what you want about Hedo and his style of play, but his contributions have been steady in recent years, I do not see a blowup happening in the first two years of the contract. Perhaps a slight decline, but nothing that is going to be a dramatic change in his all around game. Of course, this, like anything else in this post could be wrong.
We could find a lot of teams wanting to trade for Hedo at the trade deadline. Any situation like this would work in our favor. We may be able to exchange Hedo for younger talent sooner then we imagine.

1. A team looking for an upgrade at the 3 and spot minutes at the 4.

2. A team that is looking to add a 3rd or 4th scoring option. That needs to gain favorable playoff positioning and try to muscle themselves into the top tier of teams in the NBA. (see Rockets, Hawks, Jazz.)

3. A younger, borderline team that has improved recently, and is trying to make strides and break a streak of not contending for the playoffs. Most teams have their franchise cornerstone but need a better supporting cast. (see OKC, Memphis, LAC, NY, Min) And here is my wish list for events i pray will take place.

4. Dream scenario: Detroit bounces back from last season; even with their FA acquisitions they desire another scorer on the wing. Prince becomes available, with the pistons demanding Hedo is the main piece in the deal.

5. Perhaps the Bulls dump Deng, who has fallen out of favor in recent days, they then have a large amount of minutes at the 3. They decide they want to take the stress of Rose; they then move salmons to the 2 and come after a ball handling 3. The Kurt Hinrich saga will weigh heavy on my heart until he has a career ending injury or retirement.

Pure speculation, i know. Recently that has been the theme of the mass media though, and if they do it, I will too.

These options are from the outside looking in, as I usually reserve my judgment for people outside of normal Blazer news. As a generality they make stabs in the dark about what our franchise needs, and many times their assumptions are way off base.

Let’s not forget Hedo is a good offensive option. There are reasons why he is considered one of the larger free agent acquisitions of the summer. We could just as easily make him available if early on it does not look like things are going our way. Either way we have cap space and we need to spend it. It is a FREE net-gain of talent and assets. It will necessitate moving at least one of our young talented players, but that is NBA basketball.

Risks are a common theme the top teams in the NBA, barring the steady and structured modern dynasty of the Spurs. Look at the bulls bringing Dennis Rodman. Look at what the Celtics did two years ago. Big teams often take big risks. I am not saying that a team trading for Hedo has as much impact as trading for KG, that would be silly, but what I am saying is it would be a foreboding notion not to add talent and a legit #3 scorer for now.  Later on you would have either a trade asset in the future, or a declining #4 option off the bench.

Hedo hits last second buckets. With him, Aldridge, and Rudy on the court ready to take the big shot, maybe the opponents won’t be able to throw the house at Roy. Not only during the last shot of the game, but during the entire course of the game.

I'm not a Hedo fan, but now I feel like it was forced on me. I feel dirty. I need a shower.

Any thoughts on Hedo, with reservations of turning him into a viable trade asset as a plan B? It does not seem like a bad scenario considering the situation we are in this summer. Feel free to bash the idea if you like. I'm a man, I’ll just run back to commenting threads with my tail between my legs.

The shorter the commitment we get for Hedo in the end, the better value he will be as a trade asset. Taking back 4.5 years of a ten million dollar salary is not desirable for many GM's. But $10 million over 2.5 or 1.5 years fits the goal that many GM's have of beefing up their roster for the short term. The length of Hedo Turkoglu's potential contract effects his trade value. A good length contract for Hedo may very well shape his history with the Trail Blazers.