Some idle thoughts on Mr. Greg Oden

by senormateo on Jul 29, 2009 9:47 AM PDT Comment 29 comments

Hey I already miss the week of Oden, so I thought I'd throw some of my observations out there. I can't speak to his mental or physical health or anything like that. I don't have any inside information. But I do split a pair of season tickets with some friends so I got several chances to see him play in person last year. And what I observed was this:

Oden is a black hole.

Not a Zach Randolph black hole, where the ball never goes out once it comes in. But a "black hole" in the sense that he completely warps time and space around him when he goes into the game.

I can't really describe it better than that. I only see the same effect from two other players: Shaq and Yao ( I did not see LeBron this year). Oden is just so...massive...in the way he plays the game that every single other player in the game moves differently as they approach him. Driving guards veer unconscioulsy out of his way (unless they are trying consciously to draw a foul). Opposing big man put every single ounce of effort in trying to keep him off the boards. I swear he even alters the trajectory of the ball, which could explain his high rebound rate.

It's that almost intangible gravity that he has on the court that convinces me he will be great. It's something I absolutely don't see on TV. It's something I don't see in any of our other big men. He really does change the way the game is played by his mere presence. I've never been in the room when a major personality like an Obama or a Jordan or an Oprah walks in, but it is said they immediately draw every eye. Oden seems to have that same magnitude of effect on the basketball court. Frankly, I think he'll be game changer for that reason alone

Sorry if this has been said before.

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Oden per 36 mins

14.8ppg
11.6rpg
1.9bpg

6.5fouls per game Bolded because this is Greg’s issue right now. If he can change his game to prevent the fouls, many silly and needless fouls, he will be in the running for MIP next year. How sad is it that the media of sports could call him a bust this year, because he fouls alot as a rookie coming off MF surgery, but yet next year he could be hailed as the next great NBA center once again if he does just this one thing.

Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by usmcr3049 on Jul 29, 2009 9:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

And by gaining some of his strength back in his lower body, he’ll gain back some of his lateral quickness and be able to hedge on the p’n’r without having to resort to fouling because he’s not quick enough to show and recover.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 29, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, I just said all of that in one sentence

Today must be a special day.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 29, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If "special" means hot enough to bake the paint off of a fire truck, yes, today is special...

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 29, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's a perfect day to cuddle up next to the AC and read a book

Or discover or refine your special purpose.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Jul 29, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah, the quickness problem is a myth

Expanding upon senormateo’s theory, things just appear to slow down as they reach Oden’s “event horizon” (including his feet).
It’s called gravitational time dilation. If he is able to reduce his mass, and thus his Schwarzchild radius, this “apparent” lack of quickness will diminish.

by levelhed on Jul 29, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 9 recs

Huh???

Who are you, Sam, from Quantum Leap?

by oregon_fan on Jul 29, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sam from Quantum Leap is a moron.

by levelhed on Jul 29, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

This is comment that should be recced

Fast-forward to 0:48 of this Wallace Shawn gem

Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically

by OhOhOden on Jul 31, 2009 4:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best comment I’ve read in a while. rec

by pxilpooshr on Jul 29, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love it

rec

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jul 29, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yao had same problem with fouls

Refs beat him with mercilessly with their whistles early in his career.

The back shed schooling of Greg will pass right along with his first couple of years learning curve.

Hopefully by the second half of this year this will be only a memory. But we all need to realize that his foul woes might not end until he enters year 3.

Yao had to endure as much.

The Oden Era, Day 770

by Heymoe on Jul 29, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have heard this many times before but.......

In Yaos rookie year he averaged 29 minutes and 2.8 fouls per game or about 1 foul for every 10:20 of playing time. Odens first year he averaged 21:30 minutes and 3.9 fouls per game or 1 foul for every 6:30 of playing time about 60% more fouls per minute than Yao!! Through Yaos 7 years he has averaged about 1 foul for every 10 minutes played about the same as his rookie season, just saying the comparison is really not that close.

by Planet29 on Jul 29, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep so true

Most big men solve this problem, so I’m not worried.

by austinpwnz on Jul 29, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's learning!

I noticed in the USA mini-camp scrimmage that Oden very consciously kept his hip away from a penetrating guard—I’ve forgotten who—but Oden tracked him enough to never allow the penetrator to be sure he he had clear airspace above him. It was more encouraging than the jumper that I heard he canned, but I didn’t see in the highlights. Did anyone see the jumper?

by cantdunk on Jul 29, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting post.

KP’s stat-boys are loving Oden, so what you say catches my eye.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jul 29, 2009 10:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think those stat-boys

see a lot of the things a lot of us on this site see. It doesn’t take a great analyst to see that Oden is going to dominate games in the future. I think he’ll be what we all hoped.

by Illmatic88 on Jul 29, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oden's O-rebounding

I like the “positive black hole” concept. I posted this in May on Oden’s offensive rebounding.

Greg Oden’s rebounding is what sets him apart. If his rookie year is any indication, he is a once in a generation offensive rebounder.

According to basketball-reference.com, his rookie year offensive rebounding percentage was 15.7%. This is right up there with the rookie years of Rodman (15.6%) and Moses Malone (15.5%), and above Buck Williams (13.7%) and Barkley (12.5%). These are generally considered the greatest offensive rebounders in the last 35 years.

Dwight Howard led the league in offensive rebounds this year by a far cry, and he had 13.8%. So Greg’s offensive rebounding rate was 14% better than this year’s league leader.

This manifests itself not only as an individual stat. In fact, he not only grabs more offensive rebounds when he’s in the game, the whole team grabs even more. So he doesn’t “suck up” offensive rebounds from his teammates. Rather, he “makes his teammates rebound better” (related to “makes his teammates play better”), and to an amazing degree.

From basketballvalue.com come the team offensive rebounding stats. The average team has an offensive rebounding rate of 29%. These numbers are fairly clustered, with all but the best and the worst ranging from 26% to 31%. The best (except for Portland) is Philly at 33.4%.

Portland without Oden, is 32.5%, which would be 2nd in league. But with him, we rise far above the pack. With Greg in the lineup, our offensive rebounding rate is 38.7%! About half of that difference is Greg’s advantage over Pryz (who is also an excellent O-rebounder), and half if everyone else rebounding better while Greg is in the game.

For one individual player to make that much of a difference is truly amazing. It’s such an incredible margin, and indicates that he is a once in a generation offensive rebounder.

by Blaz06Draft on Jul 29, 2009 11:47 AM PDT reply actions 14 recs

Brilliant statistical breakdown.

by Gregoriun on Jul 29, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "reverse Black hole " effect

I saw it too, nut mostly on TV. Clearly Oden warped the way guards penetrated and shot. Big men (outside of Shaq) worked hard to body him up which only led to other Blazers gettting the rebound when Greg couldn’t. This of course is what gets lumped into “intangibles”. We can all see it how greg changes the game just by being on the court. But that change in the game is hard to quantify (unless you are Blaz06Draft). Greg is special in a good way; he will get better with time.

by NWfan on Jul 29, 2009 2:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Greg is great at blocking out the biggest guy on the opposing team which enables his

teammates to grab the rebounds.

by vt087 on Jul 29, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. He probably won't ever average 20 points a game, but his rebounding and defense alone will win games.

by dario argento on Jul 29, 2009 3:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oden does kinda have the Deion Sanders effect

Deion would nullify a portion of the field. Oden does the same to the court. Even when he is seemingly playing poorly if you look closely you can see the opposing team playing a softer brand of hoops settling for shots when they would normally take it to the paint, or getting back on defense when they would normally go for the rebound.

by Kaanyr Vhok on Jul 29, 2009 3:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I just know that when Oden gets in the game all eyes are on him. He's just fun to watch when he is into the

game and not fouling. A lot of fans tune into to see how many point Roy can score, I tune into to see how many blocks and dunks Greg can get. Having a big man like that is fun to watch regardless of how well he is doing.

by BRoyInThe4th on Jul 29, 2009 10:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Great post dude. Not that they don’t have value, but this beats the tar out of any numerical analysis of Greg’s PER or rebounding percentage or extrapolated-per-36 minute-boxscore, etc., when discussing his future or potential in the NBA.

I, for one, believe he will be great as well. I also believe that we haven’t seen nearly enough of him on the court (for extended durations) to form an opinion about his eventual productivity whatsoever based on his stats alone, no matter how foretelling we want those little slices of numerical interpretation to be.

The bottom line is that he is the greatest center prospect in ten years based on physical talent alone, and that because of microfracture surgery, we haven’t seen anything resembling the real Greg Oden yet. No amount of statistical analysis/interpretation of his rookie campaign, whether positive, negative, or indifferent, will cause me to believe otherwise.

"Life is a meaningless sequence of events in between Blazer championships"

by broggerboy19 on Jul 30, 2009 12:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Mutombo

Nice post. Mutombo had a similar effect in his day, though he didn’t eat space quite the way Greg does. Greg has a clumsy way of fouling too. I often see opponents holding their elbow or limping to the free throw line. Now, this isn’t a good thing and doesn’t appear to be intentional, but it does add to the “don’t go there” factor.

I love the warped space analogy. In a way he makes an awful mess of the game, but in a way that’s conducive to winning.

I’m yet to be convinced that Greg won’t average 20 PPG some season. Surround him with shooters and get him the ball on cuts and when he seals him man deep. Throw in free throw attempts and that might be enough right there.

by Engineering Problem on Jul 30, 2009 6:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Body Language

While Greg did look lost much of last season, some of it can be attributed to his body language. He looks confused and self-analytical just walking onto the court. It’s just the nature of the man. In contrast, Bayless was as lost at PG as Greg was at C, but he’s overtly fiesty, which people assume means “going to improve a lot”.

After 4 championships, Tim Duncan still looks slightly confused checking into the game. You don’t have to act like you own the court to own the court.

by Engineering Problem on Jul 30, 2009 6:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

exactly. I never saw Greg play with a mopey style on the court. He stayed within himself, was pretty focussed, and though you could see he was frustrated with the fouls, he responded with maturity. He just kept coming back for more, trying to work through it.

The “psychological” reportage we have seen says more about the stunted manhood of our local sports media than it does about Greg Oden.

by Blazin' on Jul 30, 2009 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love Gregory Oden

I could have sacrificed goin' out
To think my homies who did it, I used to joke about
From now on I'ma use self control instead of birth control
Cause $315 ain't worth your soul
$315 ain't worth your soul
$315 ain't worth it

by The Pirate on Jul 31, 2009 5:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs