Wake up, rejoice. We just upgraded a 54 win team!
by FromAfar on Jul 26, 2009 12:14 PM PDT
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Seems like a lot of doom and gloom. Seems like we see the Andre Miller signing as "the best we could do".
How about shifting our mindset?
1. Trust Management
Andre was brought in at $7M and Steve Blake was brought in at $4M. Surely the Blazers are expecting value for their money, and that Andre ought to be far better than Steve Blake. I’m suggesting that management might know more than us, and would not throw $7M without some expectations. They have been too deliberate, too careful with their assessments. They have shown that they will try to improve the team, but they have shown that standing pat is a very viable option for the brain trust -- remember last trading deadline. So if they gave up their cap-space to bring in Andre, you better beleive that this was no "best we could do" move.
2. We upgraded a 54 win team.
We have *two* additions to last years 54 win team.
Andre+Steve > Steve+Sergio.
Batum+Martell > Batum+Outlaw
Yes, Martell's recovery is still TBD. But to the extent that he fully heals, he is the equivalent of a "free agent" pickup. Outlaw plays better at PF than as SF. So even though their stats may be similar, we are stronger at SF with Martell instead of Outlaw
3. Who did the L@kers fear most last year?
The Blazers of course. They were scared. Phil Jackson started his mind games before the playoffs even began -- remember how his leg hurt him too much to fly up to Portland. Yeah right, just that one game. If we actually won a playoff series and beat Houston, we were a huge threat -- we would have had nothing to lose, and yet would have had the self belief of being able to win in the playoffs.
Artest for Ariza appears about even. But against the Blazers, it's deadly. In Artest, the L@kers now have a Brandon stopper, without Kobe working on defense. Brandon took it to Kobe last year, in the last 4th quarter that they played up here in Portland.
Andre gave the Lakers fits. Our upgrades tip the scales back in our favor.
4. Remember Hedo
No, not that he turned us down. But remember we were wondering "what is management thinking of with this move". The Blazers need a PG, and a backup PF, why increase the logjam at SF. Eventually we came around to the idea. The in your face shake up forced us to re-examine our viewpoint and we bought off that a big shift would take place in team dynamics, and playing style.
Bringing in Andre does not force an in-your-face re-examination of our viewpoint. Wake up. Bringing in Andre is not as subtle and insignificant as we are perceiving it. You might underpay your starting unit because they are still on rookie scale. But you do not pay $7M/yr to a veteran to be backup to $4M/yr veteran. We need to reexamine our viewpoints and explore how the team will change with Andre as point guard for around 30 minutes, and getting major burn with the starting unit.
Steve Blake is in the final year of his contract. What is the scenario under which the Blazers re-sign him next year? If Blake is re-signed, its because Andre was a bust and was shipped out, or because Bayless showed that he could not even be backup PG in his 3rd year. If instead Bayless shows he can handle the team, would it not be likely that he becomes backup PG around Feb trading deadline and we trade Blake's valuable expiring contract? Then next year Bayless is firmly esconced as backup PG, and gets to show whether he can take over from Andre. [Team option for Year3 becomes a thing of beauty in this scenario -- giving Bayless one more year before he takes the team over].
5. Our PG defense *has* upgraded
Half our PG defensive weaknesses are against *stronger* not faster PGs.
In last years playoffs 6 teams had stronger/bigger PGs: L@kers/Fisher, Nuggets/Billups, Mavs/Kidd, Jazz/DWill, Hawks/Bibby, Pistons/Stuckey. [Miami/Wade+Cook would make 7th team and Sixers/Andre would have made 8th team] vs 5 teams with faster PGs: Spurs/Parker, Rockets/Brooks, Hornets/CP3, Bulls/Rose, Celtics/Rondo. Considering Cavs/MoWill, and Magic/Alston as on par -- doesn't take away from point anyway.
Bigger PGs post up Steve Blake and create as much propensity for foul trouble for our bigs. Andre is not going to get posted up as easily. We have upgraded our PG defense against half the playoff teams. In addition, its nice to be on the plus side, and have a PG that can do some posting himself. Making Brooks and others works on defense is also a way of containing their impact.
6. Expect more from Andre & Nate
Cmon, the Blazers have got to stop being a jump shooting team. Just dont see this changing with Blake as our floor general. Our bigs have got to be the focal point of our offense. They need to be getting their shots from closer to the rim, and Brandon creates magic, when the initial options dont work. We cannot continue having Brandon as our primary option all game long and have the team stall when he is double teamed.
Brandon Roy is great. But he is also the reason we play more pick-and-pop than pick-and-roll. By no way is this a knock on Brandon. Brandon is fantastic at creating shots for himself and for others on the team. However, with Brandon’s creativity, he gets to the rim, and other’s get the ball when they are well set and shoot from outside. He is our 4th quarter guy, or when the game needs that superstar boost. But at other times, we need our bigs at the rim.
So our PG should marshall the bigs and get them firing at point blank range. Passing off the dribble, alley-oops, slash and dish, whatever, we've got an awesome front line, lets get the opponents into foul trouble. We feared opposing PGs, now let them fear ours.
We complained all last year that the Blazers didn't run the fast break, that our offense was simple and predictable. Nate now has a PG that can run the break (and trust at other times). He has a veteran floor general that can run a team. If they dont deliver, this would have been a bust. But now that Andre is here, expect more. Get excited about it!
7. A parting comparison
Superstar: Larry Bird -- Brandon Roy
Elite Fwd: Kevin McHale -- LMA
Elite Center: Robert Parrish -- Oden
Sharpshooter: Danny Ainge -- Martell
PG (lousy 3P%): Dennis Johnson -- Andre Miller
That Celtics starting unit won the title in 1986 with Bill Walton as 6th man. In 1984, this team also won the title with Ainge as 6th man and Henderson as sharpshooter. These were slow, half-court oriented teams that beat Magic's Lakers, and Houston's Twin Towers. We're not there yet, but we have the talent; and we have youth and athleticism. Maybe in Andre's 3rd year...
This was a 54 win team last year. We have upgraded it significantly. Lets give the team time to gel. Lets get excited!
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Roy is no Larry Bird
Bird = 220 lbs, 6’9"
Roy= 211 lbs, 6’6"
Very different players on the court. Very different roles on the team. The Ainge/Martell comparison is also very strange. Martell is gigantic compared to Ainge and Ainge was much quicker and better with the ball than Martell. Martell is more like Sean Elliot if you’re going to make that kind of comparison. In recent memory, I can’t think of a single 2 guard that plays like Roy that has done well in the playoffs. Mitch Richmond is probably the most similar player to Roy, but Roy is better.
Chris Dudley for three!
Richmond>Roy
There is no way that Brandon Roy (as much as I love him) is better than Mitch Richmond. If it weren’t for some guy named Jordan, Richmond would have been the best SG of the 90s whereas Roy is currently the 3rd best SG behind Kobe & Wade. Just ask Jordan for his opinion of Richmond and he’ll set the record straight. Mitch was a better shooter, better athlete, better defender, one of the best post up guards ever and had to do it all for his teams. If Richmond was on some better teams he might have a few more rings on his fingers. I am not saying Roy doesn’t have a chance of being better than Richmond but at this point in Roy’s career, Richmond was better. Finally, I believe that Mitch Richmond and our very own Arvydas Sabonis were two of the most underrated players of the past 2 decades.
I watched, and loved
Mitch Richmond regularly in the 1990’s. He was legendary in his own right, but not even the best player on his own team, and certainly has none of the “FINALS MVP” swagger and potential that surrounds Roy.
I know it hasn’t happened yet, but rest assured, it will. Roy will go down as one of the top 5 or 6 players ever at his position. Mitch is questionable to push the top 12.
"Life is a meaningless sequence of events in between Blazer championships"
by broggerboy19 on Jul 26, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Ehh here's the list by a bunch of "experts" (200 was top score possible)
1. Jordan- 200
2. Kobe- 170
3. West- 167
drop
4. Gervin- 100
5. Iverson- 82
6. Drexler- 75
7. Miller- 61
8. Maravich- 47
9. Monroe- 36
10. Dumars- 34
I can easilly see Roy surpassing some of these guys, partly because titles adds to a players “greatness” level. If Oden/LMA can help Roy get a few of these, Roy easily joins the list. If not, Roy miiight squeek his way onto it.
Note: Wade was in “other receiving votes” and will no doubt be on this same list in another year or two.
Los Angeles Lakers 2009-2010 Western Conference Chumps
Roy>Richmond after 3 years
Roy is 2nd team all NBA in his 3rd year. Richmond didn’t make even the 3rd team in his first 4 years. Roy has to continue to play at an elite level, but it can be argued that at least early in their careers that Roy is better.
by Blaze of Glory on Jul 27, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
If you could rec from mobile I would, so it'll have to wait...
I am happy tho, very!
Blazers win!
by The X-man on Jul 26, 2009 12:42 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Good thoughts
I was hoping Miller wasn’t the guy they were going after because I thought he wanted a $10 million a year deal for 3-4 years. For what they signed him for, I am very excited. The deal helps them keep some flexibility and Miller is a solid PG. I am excited to see the rewards for Aldridge and Oden with a PG who can get them the ball in the post and see cutters and open guys on the break. He seems like the kind of player who knows when to take risks with the ball, resulting in good shots without turning the ball over.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Sometimes I wonder if there was more careful orchestration that we will ever be privy to
The Blazers were interested in trading for Miller at the Feb deadline with his $10.3M salary figure. Yet even though PG seemed like a glaring hole, they did not pursue Andre as the first option. He did start out wanting $10M per for several years. Getting him for $7M seems like a great deal. How carefully orchestrated were the moves? Suspect that KP and brass were moving multiple directions at the same time, and the summer was not about Plan A (Hedo), then Plan B (Millsap) and now Plan C. Think that management is very smart, not lucky/blundering.
After summer cap holds are lifted, they could still do a lopsided deal trading Blake for somebody at $7M per — probably the right range to bring in a backup PF. This has worked out very smoothly.
When regular season starts; provided they have contracts outside the NBA
From some literature on the net: “If a first round pick signs instead with a non-NBA team, his scale amount is excluded from the team salary on the date he signs his non-NBA contract or the first day of the regular season, whichever is later. The scale amount goes back onto the team salary on the following July 1 or when his non-NBA contract ends, whichever is earlier. In other words, these cap holds are removed for players playing outside the NBA, but only during the regular season.”
So you'd be comfortable...
…with Bayless as our 1st PG off the bench?.. I see this proposed alot… trade Blake for a back up PF. I have to say that I couldn’t disagree with that more. Miller + Blake = upgrade… Miller + Bayless = two PG’s who struggle from 3 and a back up PG who has not shown that he’s ready to be a 1 in the NBA.
I am very excited that we have upgraded a 54 win team but feel part of that upgrade is being 2 deep at PG with guys who have opposite but complementary skills.
Very nice post though… Thanks for being positive.
by Ilikeemall on Jul 26, 2009 4:49 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I don't disagree with you, but what to do with Bayless?
If he doesn’t get minutes, he doesn’t improve…
until, we trade him to Indiana, and then he gets voted most improved player… makes six consecutive all-star teams and all sorts of all-NBA teams, and carries the franchise for almost a decade.,
I heart taxes.
I think you may be missing my point.
When we traded Jermaine O’neal, everyone thought he was a slightly clumsy, foul prone stack of over-hyped unfulfilled expectations; he never got the chance to develop into the player he would one day become, because he got scooted out of the way for proven, albeit mediocre, talent.
I heart taxes.
Not everyone
i remember thinking that he was a stud in the making, along with other people that had extended looks at him in practice. There were many reports that suggested Jermaine was killing everyone in practice….He’s also partly to blame for throwing that much money at Z-bo since management was scared of potentially losing another good young front court player.
Hmmm...
I do understand your reasonning but I’ll only put the blame on Nash for Randolph’s contract (along with Ratliff’s one BTW…).
On a side note I don’t see Bayless becoming as an important player as O’Neal (prior to injuries).
Jermaine had a body that fitted his skills, that’s a big difference.
He's 20 years old...
Let him be the 3rd PG… Let him practice against Steve and Andre… Let him keep working for another year or two and see if he can become the player many think he can be.
I will admit I’m not a Bayless fan. His attitude at SL was terrible. But he does have potential though. Some say he won’t be happy or he deserves more PT. I don’t buy it. He’s a pro basketball player and the Blazers pay him big money to do what they need… not what he needs.
Bayless is certainly no Jermaine O’ Neal and I don’t think he ever will be. If we got the right deal in a trade for him I say do it. I’ll take my chances with him coming back to bite us.
by Ilikeemall on Jul 26, 2009 9:07 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I've now seen several comments about Bayless' SL interview, and find this POV hard to understand.
Folks seem to be upset that Bayless pointed out that his teammates were not Rudy and Roy. Given that JB’s SG teammates were a collective 3-23 in the first three games, its hardly surprising that he was a bit frustrated. Cunningham was the only decent scorer he had to pass to. Toss in extra turnovers from teammates not handling passes, and a few funky calls (at least three offensive fouls and three palming calls) that would have never been made in a real NBA game, and the kid’s frustration is totally understandable.
I understand that pros are not supposed to be honest in such situations and say out loud that their teammates were total stiffs, but come on, the kid is twenty. He knows he has a lot on the line and that his teammates and the zebras in training made him look much worse than he really was. Even Prunty when he was interviewed on “Courtside” said he was surprised that folks seemed to be overreacting to Bayless’ stats.
Again, JB’s comments were not pretty, but they were pretty understandable. People drawing negative conclusions about Bayless’ character from those comments seems like just another form of overreaction.
by upper left corner on Jul 26, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Again... you have missed the point.
Nobody thought Jermaine O’neal was Jermaine O’neal until he got some PT.
Bayless was summer league MVP a year ago, and everybody talked like he was the second coming of JC in a pair of Jordans.
Now everyone has cooled on him, because he had a less than stellar rookie year.
There is zero chance that after a year anyone could possibly have anything conclusive to say about his future. So, you trade him or you don’t, but you saying he is no Jermaine O’neal doesn’t cut it for me as likely indicator of his future worth.
I heart taxes.
i think he meant to say that he's no jermaine o'neal
in that he wouldn’t whine and pout until he forced trade and not necessarily that he will be a jermaine o’neal caliber player.
"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.
"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.
by Tofu Anonymous on Jul 27, 2009 2:57 AM PDT up reply actions
No...What I meant is...
That he is not 6’11" and 260lbs… The reality is that 5-10 guys like Bayless come out of the draft every year… Athletic, hardworking shooting guards in point guard bodies. Some of them are even real PG’s.
I haven’t cooled on Rex because I was never hot on him. My original comment said keep him as the third PG and let him develop. He’s a 20 year old kid with potential that he is yet to realize. I would be happy to have him as the 3rd PG and to gamble that he’ll pay off. On the other hand I wouldn’t be happy to have Steve gone and Rex as our 2nd PG right now. He’s not ready and anybody who thinks he is hasn’t been watching his performance… or his attitude.
Would vs could...
The Blazers could do a deal. But you ask a fair question, would I be comfortable doing such a deal?
At the start of the season, I’m completely with you. Miller + Blake = upgrade.
Question is what about next year? We will be over the cap next year when Brandon and LMAs new contracts kick in. I’m not a master of cap rules, but I think we only get one exception to re-sign past players when we’re over the cap and both Blake and Travis are expiring. So before the end of this season we will need to decide whether we’re signing Blake to a new contract, and then also for how long/how much. If we are deciding to let Blake go, we might choose to do it by the trading deadline, when his expiring contract + any cap space will allow us to take about $7M off of somebody else’s books.
If Bayless is coming along, then will Blake be content to re-sign as 3rd string PG?
So my answer is Miller + Blake
- and the future is up to Bayless! If he doesn’t cut it we entice Blake to stay on for longer.
You can resign all of your own players
Exceptions are for signing FA’s from other teams
He did it! Yes he did!
I agree with you...
There will come a time when decisions will have to be made and most of those decisions will be influenced by the development of our young talent… especially Bayless.
If Odom signs w/ Miami...
and who knows what Artest will to the Lakes? Artest is all sorts of bad. Lakers lost this offseason.
hope miami pulls it off.
hard to type with your fingers crossed.
I love this move for a few reasons
1. Having gone to about 25 games last season (season ticket holder this year so it will be the full run minus christmas games) Andre Miller is the one guy I did not know much about as a pro that really impressed me in his appearance at the Rose Garden. Sure other players impressed, LeBron and so on, but those type of guys are either not on the market, not what we need or not the right fit. Miller came into the Rose Garden and impressed. No one else that was not in the A-List celebrity player status was all that attention grabbing, at least for their legal play on the court. I thought the idea of bringing Miller to Portland would be great from that game onward and I am standing by that assessment now. I remember sitting there thinking, boy i wish we had a PG that could bring what he brings to the court. Now we do.
2. While I think our more pressing need still is a muscle/rebounding type backup PF to take some heavy abuse off of Aldridge, Miller brings the potential to open our post play up quite a bit. Do do not underestimate the impact the ability to get the ball low and in a usable position will have, even in a gaurd oriented league like the NBA.
3. While he primarily runs the offense, he can also create his own shot when needed. It will take some of the pressure off of Roy to do that in every single critical situation of every single critical moment of every single critical game this season. Roy is great at creating his own shot, but it will be much better to have some help in this department. Look at what the addition of Mo Williams did for the Cavs, or more specifically for LeBron, this season (although the Cavs interior game was not up to the task in the end).
4. He gives Bayless the opportunity to develop into what we need long term and if not, Miller is a quality enough guy to hold things together until we find that long term solution.
5. He seems to really want to play on this team. Do not underestimate this desire either. Particularly given the chemistry on this team. Any additions need to have a good team attitude to work. Lee would have been a disaster here for example, he obviously did not want to be here.
Goodbye Deke. The NBA will miss Mt. Mutombo
Support families in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
Good points.
Especially that he really wants to play. Was very impressed that he had studied the team and was selling himself to the Blazers. He had prepped for the interview. Somebody posted a video of Nate’s comments. For as measured as Nate likes to come across, he sounded upbeat about having a second coach on the floor.
yep
icing on the cake for me. I was sold on the idea early on as I posted. When I saw the comments from nate and Miller’s own comments I was even more pumped…
Goodbye Deke. The NBA will miss Mt. Mutombo
Support families in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
Nice post
Very detailed. I am very happy about this signing. Not flashy, not high risk. Paying 7 mill for 2 years with team option for 3rd, great. Dude has missed 3 games in his career, and he averaged almost 7 assisits per game with a 76ers team that had all of AI(andre not allen). Think what he can do. I would have loved something more flashy and more high risk. But this is low risk high reward. GO BLAZERS
What's the differance of 3-6 mil? oh about 20+ more losses, and the chance to watch the only star leave by the end of the season. Suck it Hedo!
Who is that you ask, well that shell of a man with his junk tucked away I think his name is Hedo. At least he used to be.
Canzano is a joke. When you see him kick him in the BUTT for me!
Thanks.
Go Blazers indeed. Maybe I’m getting more excited than I ought to. But with positive news with Oden’s health, with a PG upgrade, and possibly Martell’s return, I’m starting to get amped up for the season to get going. Of course, we were here last year as well — excited about Martell and Oden coming back. So maybe its more of a ShowMe atmosphere this time around. Still, the excitement is building up again, and its only July!
by FromAfar on Jul 26, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec.
Agree,
1) We significantly upgraded our team. (Miller ranked #51 last year, Blake at #158. Blake will be perfect as a backup. Great team player, will practice hard, and hopefully keep hitting those threes.)
2) Love Andre as floor general/coach, and I really hope Andre leads the break a LOT this year.
3) Agree this was a great contract, especially team 3rd year option. Beautiful!
4) As a long-time C’s fan, really enjoyed the comparisons… Kinda what I was going for too. (Although the 86 Celtics had a GREAT fast break -you just don’t get to use it as much during the post season. Which is why you also need a good half-court O).
Not so sure I agree that managment ‘planned’ to have Hedo snub us, but I am so glad we did. I do think it’s possible that Milsap was signed just to screw Utah, knowing they had to sign the “toxic” offer which is fine by me… But I don’t think they had this all planned out. I do think they are good enough to have planned a bunch of contingency plans for different scenarios. So yeah, In KP I Trust. (Not blind faith, but trust).
Good post, I too am geeked by this acquisition!
Love the post
Putting together all the reasons to get excited about Andre. Not sure about number 7., but that’s all right, perhaps we will be something new, with out comparison. Regardless, I am getting very excited about this new look Blazers. Could be a bigger move than many think.
I love this move for one reason and one reason only
Andre Miller will force the Blazers to change how they play. They had the most effiecent offense in the NBA for most of last year, but in the playoffs they saw how far that can get you. Now instead of tough, fade away jumpers off of one foot by Outlaw, we will see smart crisp passing to the open man for the easy bucket inside by Miller.
Miller’s game will force Nate to change his offense, the Blazer already know how to play off of Roy, and that will still be there, but it will no longer be the only way the Blazers know how to play. Houston showed they can stop the Blazers offense if all they can show is one look, now Miller gives another look, another creator and finisher.
We will see double the fast breaks this year, we will see double the throw ahead passes to LMA and Oden, and we will see three times as many ally oops, all easy buckets.
What we will not see, is Charles Freaking Barkely call out the Blazers this year for not being able to get easy shots, or for being too much of a jump shooting team. That is what Miller brings, and that is what makes this such a good signing in my opinion.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
by usmcr3049 on Jul 26, 2009 5:52 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
You are right
this puts the pressure on Nate to creatively visualize how the line-up and the game plan can change to match personell.
Which heloops answer another serious question for our long-term championship window
Is Nate our coach of the future? If he is able to adjust the offense to the teams’ added experince and the addition of Miller, then he has proen to be an elite NBA coach, able to get both maximum effort AND production from his team. If we start next season running the exact same sets we did last year, it shows an inability to adjust his preferred coaching style to our personnel. I think he is more than up to the challenge, but only time will tell
wouldn't it be something
if Miller stays around to be an assistant coach in Portland when his playing days are over?
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I was thinking about that too.
Maybe not in Portland, but a coach. I could see that.
This WILL be a bigger change than a 'third, OK option'
Bingo. Roy will no longer be the only option. I love the acquisition for that reason alone. But it goes a lot deeper.
I obviously went way out on a limb on a side post, but I do strongly believe the Blazers will run more this year. I think the big thing that has to shake out, is how much will this become Dre’s team? Nate’s a PG, and will give unprecendted control to his new floor general. Much of our success this year may rest on how quickly Brandon can adjust his game to a faster tempo. I’d love to see BRoy come into camp and say, “Andre Miller is the leader on the floor”… I think that could bring huge benefits down the line… Don’t expect it, and obviously many would strongly defend this as BRoy’s team, but Andre will shake this team up more than just about any other acquisition we’ve been discussing in the offseason… I can’t wait!
Yeah...
The amount of negativity running around here is shocking to me. I didn’t even particularly like the Miller signing, but I’m still pumped for the season. It’s a great time to be a Blazer fan. The Blazers have a legitimate shot of making it to the NBA championship next season. They may not, but it’s a realistic goal and an honest hope! As a fan, that’s as much as I’d ever want for a team. How many teams will the Blazers win? I hope they win a lot. It’s got to the point where predicting the number of wins seems irrelevant . I don’t know how many games the Blazers will win, but they have a decent chance to win almost every game they play.
Miller will also bring enough change to the style of play that it will be intriguing to watch.
Just cant understand it
If KP had jumped right out of the gate and sealed a deal with Andre at $10M per, suspect that everybody would be rejoicing as though we had the title in the bag. There are pundits out there that rated Andre Miller as the #2 UFA that was available, over Hedo and others. It appear because this came across as Plan C, that we are dressed in mourning and have long faces.
We got who we wanted at a much smaller price tag than we would have expected to pay. We dont have to Pritch slap someone for it to be a great deal. A quiet move that gets the job done, is just as effective. This is a great deal.
The West has 4 teams next year
1. Lakers
2. Blazers
3. Spurs
4. Mavs
Now, I think the Mavs hype is out of control. Marion is quite the overrated player, but I figured I’d get lynched if I didn’t have them in here.
Sorry Nuggets. You did good last season, but you also had EVERYTHING go your way in the regular season and post season.
Los Angeles Lakers 2009-2010 Western Conference Chumps
I'll be charitable and throw the Nuggets in with that group
even though I am also skeptical.. Like it or not, health, luck, and chemistry will have a lot to do with determining which of those five in the West will be best. The Lakers are certainly the favorites, but they are far from a sure thing. I look at all five of those teams and see a major injury as likely to at least one player. The Spurs have to worry about the health of Duncan and Ginobili. Can Bryant play another entire season without at least a minor injury? The Mavs are full of fragile players. The Nuggets too.
OT: How bad does it suck to be a Rockets fan? They make a great little run in the playoffs, then lose Yao and Artest. Now they’ll be extremely fortunate to make the playoffs… and have no shot at a serious run at the conference championship.
Except for this fact.
Sergio > Miller.
How can anything be tastier than Spanish Chocolate?
Plus we’ve lost Raef!
Noooooo
It has been an upgrade and I am happy. But give the spoilsports their due: The Blazer’s organization had been talking up a BIG move this summer and it clearly appears to have fallen through.
So, I’m with you, but I’m not against those underwhelmed few.
*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
I've said this a few times, but...
I was not on board with the signing of Dre. After all the positive things that I’ve read (stats and conjecture), I’m sure this is a brilliant move. I do think that KP might have “backed-in” into this brilliance, but none-the-less it looks like KP has done some magic. I can’t wait to see the creation of the Nate-Dre “Collective Conscience”.
RIP CITY
ps What # is he gonna wear?
re: What number is he going to wear?
He should wear 51. Or maybe 77. Something in the 90’s maybe? 99? Hmmm?
LOL
"be where you are when you're there"
by BLAZER_FAN_199 on Jul 27, 2009 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Another plus
is Andre will be able to see Rudy for the oop just as well as Sergio. So we wont lose anything from the Spanish connection except a cool nickname or two.
I'm rejoicing!
I’m very happy. I hoped KP would hit a home run with that cap space, but I would say this was a solid double — and as you say, we already have a 54 win team.
I think you also make a lot of good points, and some that aren’t so sound.
1. Trust Management
Andre was brought in at $7M and Steve Blake was brought in at $4M. Surely the Blazers are expecting value for their money, and that Andre ought to be far better than Steve Blake. I’m suggesting that management might know more than us, and would not throw $7M without some expectations. They have been too deliberate, too careful with their assessments. They have shown that they will try to improve the team, but they have shown that standing pat is a very viable option for the brain trust — remember last trading deadline. So if they gave up their cap-space to bring in Andre, you better beleive that this was no “best we could do” move.
The difference between the contracts is irrelevant. Both players were players they wanted, and thought would improve the team. The price was determined by what was needed to bring in the player AT THAT POINT in time. Obviously, management thinks Andre will improve the team, though. That is a valid point, I just wish you hadn’t compared it to the Blake acquisition. If they had had to pay Steve a little more to get him, they probably would have. If they could have got Andre for a little less, they certainly would have. It’s not a useful comparison.
2. We upgraded a 54 win team.
We have two additions to last years 54 win team.
Andre+Steve > Steve+Sergio.
Batum+Martell > Batum+Outlaw
We’ll see on Martell, but I think you are correct. You are obviously right about PG. Even at 3rd string PG, I expect Bayless this year to be substantially better than Bayless last year, so even if we have an injury, we’ll be better than last year.
That doesn’t even consider the possibility of contributions from Pendergraph, or internal improvement from Nic, Greg, probably Rudy, and hopefully also LMA. This is a 60+ win team.
3. Who did the L@kers fear most last year?
Yes, I think this helps us against the L@kers. Though the biggest factor against the L@kers is what we get from Greg. If Greg can significantly outplay Bynum, I very much like our chances even without Andre. Adding Andre probably only helps.
4. Remember Hedo
I’m not sure I see quite the big shift you are discussing. You don’t make big shifts when you already have a superstar and a 54 win team which is only going to get better anyway. You look for marginal improvements.
We didn’t just trade for a superstar, or sign a FA to the max. We signed a quality player for a little over MLE. This is not a remaking of the team. We may see (I hope we do) some marginal tweaks to the style of play. I still expect to see the ball in Brandon’s hands a lot. Until someone figures out how to stop a Brandon Roy isolation, it is a tool Nate will use in close games. Maybe not as often, but we’ll still see it frequently.
I guarantee Andre didn’t tell Nate, “Here’s what I can do for you, I can take the ball out of Brandon’s hands and change his style.”
5. Our PG defense has upgraded
I hope you are right, but I’m not optimistic. We’ll see. Being posted up by PGs was hardly our big defensive problem last year.
6. Expect more from Andre & Nate
Cmon, the Blazers have got to stop being a jump shooting team. Just dont see this changing with Blake as our floor general. Our bigs have got to be the focal point of our offense. They need to be getting their shots from closer to the rim, and Brandon creates magic, when the initial options dont work. We cannot continue having Brandon as our primary option all game long and have the team stall when he is double teamed.
The biggest issue here is Greg, not Andre. If Greg becomes a real low post wrecking machine, Blake will be just fine (in fact, better, since he keeps the defense more honest). The benefit of Andre is that Greg hasn’t been that low post threat yet, and Andre can help him become that. But if Greg develops, then that is less of a benefit to Andre.
In any event, having Andre and Greg running the pick and roll should be very, very good for us. And you are absolutely correct that we need more scoring threat from our bigs.
7. A parting comparison
Superstar: Larry Bird — Brandon Roy
Elite Fwd: Kevin McHale — LMA
Elite Center: Robert Parrish — Oden
Sharpshooter: Danny Ainge — Martell
PG (lousy 3P%): Dennis Johnson — Andre Miller
You’ve taken a little criticism above for this comparison, but I think it is valid, as far as comparing roles. If Martell is able to be that main sharpshooter, my concerns about the lack of a deep threat from Andre are lessened. The other thing is that Bird was not just a superstar, he was a phenomenal shooter from outside. Brandon isn’t yet. On that Boston team you had two guys who were likely to just kill you from outside if you packed the paint.
Another factor is that back then you couldn’t play zone like you can now. We have to have enough shooters on the court to blast someone out of a zone, because our biggest threats are Brandon driving, the inside power of Greg and LMA, and now Andre driving. The obvious answer is to hit us with zone defenses.
This was a 54 win team last year. We have upgraded it significantly. Lets give the team time to gel. Lets get excited!
Absolutely! We’re contenders this year. We might see another relatively minor move, but there won’t be any major ones unless it is so much to our advantage that KP just has to pull the trigger. 60+ wins, and in the playoffs anything is possible if we get lucky.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Salary is market value
It doesn’t only mean what we think we want to pay, it means what’s number that the player would turn down, because they could do better with somebody else. The player might accept less if there aren’t any other offers, or the player might accept less if want to join a championship team. But management’s offer defines what they think it takes to get the player in. If KP could have got Miller for $4M? Miller is older, so shouldn’t his value be discounted for age, and still it took $7M/year to bring Andre in.
Not sure if BEdgers value WinShare stats, however as a measure of results, Millers WinShares over a 12 year career are 78, and Blakes over a 8 year career are 15. Per year Miller is responsible for 3 times as many wins as Blake. Millers career assist stats are nearly twice that of Blake’s, he makes the entire team around him better. You pay for results.
And by the same token, (unless there was a bidding war, which there wasn’t in this situation), when you pay more, you expect more.
Well, I agree that Andre is a better player
I just don’t think the relative difference in the contracts proves it.
Different FA markets, different times in the Blazers’ development. Lots of differences.
Paul Allen told KP to spend if needed to make us contenders now. He spent, because he thinks adding Miller makes us contenders now.
Blake is a much better player than he was when we signed him. He’s had two years shooting a high percentage from 3 on a high volume of shots. His assist to turnover ratio is great. He would probably get MLE if he were UFA right now. His contract doesn’t reflect his current value.
It just doesn’t make sense to evaluate players based on their contract size. We aren’t going to claim Joel is more valuable because he makes more than Greg. We aren’t going to claim that Raef was MVP on the Blazers last year.
Right conclusion, wrong argument.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
RE: Biggest issue here is Greg
I would disagree. Others too have mentioned that the entry pass is not a strength in Steve’s arsenal. Steve is also not very good at passing off the dribble. There is a big difference between floor general style PGs (Avery Johnson, Jason Kidd) and bring the ball up, hand it off and spot up PGs (Steve Kerr, BJ Armstrong).
Note, floor generals like Avery Johnson and even Dennis Johnson, who have won rings had pretty lousy 3P% They made their mark with moving the team around and setting up team mates. Penetration and scoring were important for them to be successful, but their primary goal was to orchestrate their team. Nate refers to having a coach on the floor that has high BBIQ, can react to opponent defenses and make the play. The team only gets two months of practice before they go into a 6 month season. There’s only so much you can learn practicing against your second string — going up against first string of another team who’s defense is trying to take you out of your game, is a whole different scenario. Good floor generals coach on the fly.
With a better floor general, LMA (not just Oden) should also get more shots at point blank range. As a team we should go to the free throw line more.
Missed my point
If Greg becomes an unstoppable force, all you need is someone to get him the ball down low.
If not, you want someone who will get him the ball in the right position, and preferably after breaking down the defense.
Steve and Andre can both do the first, Andre is much better at the second.
Until we know how good Greg is going to be offensively this year, we don’t know how important that difference is between them.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
You don’t make big shifts when you already have a superstar and a 54 win team which is only going to get better anyway. You look for marginal improvements
So what was Hedo? Was Hedo not a big shift, even after we have a superstar and a 54 win team. Was Hedo a marginal improvement?
That is exactly what I am trying to say. The team showed with the Hedo attempt that they were willing to make a big move even though we have a superstar and a 54 win team. They have also shown that they will stay pat, if they do not see the right move. The fact that (a) they made a move at all and (b), and that they brought in a perennial starter at a pretty high salary, is that this is a big move. It might not be as in our face, but it is a big move nevertheless.
I don't think Hedo
was meant to change the entire style of Brandon and the first unit. Marginal shifts, yes. Definitely some things that could be improved. But not radical changes.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
> Batum+Martell>Batum+Outlaw
How do you really know that? – Elgin
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