Salary Cap Analysis: Feb Lopsided Trade No Sure Thing

by irish3 on Jul 22, 2009 7:50 AM PDT

For all of those salivating that there will be an "uneven trade" that will greatly benefit the Blazers at the Feb deadline, due to the poor economy, a closer look reveals its not nearly as likely as many people think...although I hope I am proved wrong....

1.) *http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm --> VERY USEFUL TO USE IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS POST*

2.) http://nba.fanhouse.com/2009/02/16/how-a-lower-luxury-tax-could-kill-10-nba-teams/ --> Old, interesting read. Key Point: $1 over the luxury tax line equals $3 million dollar lost money due to "no pay out"

3.) http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837 --> Simply Outlines Luxury Tax Levels For The Next 2 Years Key Point: Luxury Tax This Year Should Be Set At 69.9 Million --- 57.7 Million is the Salary Cap This year...

Folks, people are saying if we "save" our roughly 8 million in cap space, an even better deal will present itself at the February deadline, as cash strapped teams are trying a way to get below the luxury tax line of $69.9 million, because according to my second link posted above, they'll lose $3 million automatically if they are even a dollar above that line, in addition to a "dollar for dollar" tax on however much they are over. That sounds great in "homer land," that teams will just be begging the blazers to take their highly paid stars off of their hands, as we will be one of the few teams (potentially) with cap space, but *seriously, much of the optimistm on this theory seems to ignore the fact that teams doing this will be limited, and teams that may do it, they don't seem to have too many players that would benefit the Blazers*

The key thing is to go to the "hoops hype" link at the top, its updated with FA signings, and it shows the salaries of all teams for the 09/10 season, when you check out the teams, make sure you factor in the "red," players, because many of these will likely be signed before the regular season, thus increasing the salaries of the teams by that amount...

Anyhow, *look at these teams, it doesn't seem that there will be too many "fit" trading partners on this list at the deadline*

1st) Most of the teams are under the luxury tax for 09/10 already, and will be for the next season as well...which means no pressing reason to make an "unbalanced trade."

2nd) Top 10 Salaried Teams = Jazz, Lakers, Celtics, Hornets, Magic, Cavaliers, Spurs, Wizards, Knicks, Nuggets

If you look at these teams, teams in italics are very likely to be in title contention at February, and have shown in this offseason they are willing to pay for it....they won't care about "shedding" salary...

Hornets: If you look at the Hornets, they'd like to shed, but seriously, who do they have that we really want, realistically? (They're not giving us Paul)...

Jazz: I'd almost put them in the category who won't "shed" because they probably think they can compete, they also don't like us much, and when you look at them, they don't really have players with high salaries we would like too much...and if they really want to shed, they don't even need to call the Blazers, they can simply call Memphis or OKC

Knicks: may or may not try to get under the tax this year, but economically, we know they don't have much pressure to do so, and look at their players, who are we really going to get from them in a cost cutting move that'll help us, Chris Duhon?

Wizards: Spend some time on they hoopshype link, trying to see what guys might be "viable" come the Feb trade deadline, and a team like the Wizards might jump out at you, but they seem to think they can win it all next year, and even if they change their mind, they're only 6 million over the cap right now, have shown in the past it doesn't pain them to be so, and likely won't be "bullied" into just giving us Caron Butler

Suns: If you check out all of the teams on hoopshype, you'll see the Suns are "in trouble," because they just extended Nash, which will put them about 10 million over the luxury line, but they seem bent on dealing Amare, I'm not the biggest fan of LMA for Amare straight up, and I'm not going to spend much time coming up with possible trade theories for an Amare scenario, but I will say that the...

Most Viable Trade Partners In This Scenario: Wizards & Suns It seems the two most viable Feb trade partners involve the Suns and the Wizards, but these certainly don't seem to be "locks," and after those two teams, their do not seem to be many teams that'll be good options for us, due to the fact they won't necessarily look to cut payroll, need to cut payroll, or have players that would actually help our SF & PG holes

I put this out here because I'd like to be proved wrong, but it kills me when people just act like the Bobcats will give us Gerald Wallace, because that team is not close to being over the luxury tax this year, or even next year. I'm not too optimistic about improving this team through a trade, and it seems KP's "spin room" is blindly acting like we have this great opportunity to do so at the trade deadline. Simply put, many teams, like the Bobcats, are not going to be as desperate to cut corners as people assume, especially since they are not in that luxury tax territory, and they will not be in it, even if they still sign Raymond Felton this year...

MY QUESTION? Using Hoops Hype as a tool, what "likely," viable trade partners are out there in an unbalanced trade that I'm missing?

If there are a list of potential teams with players we want, that actually will have to dump salary at the deadline, I'd like to see them, that you think we could realistically get, I'd love to see them, show me the scenario, am I overstating my case...

....but to me, it seems upon close analysis, the window to improve the team in this manner, at least significantly, seems to be very narrow...

PS: Even if salary cap dips lower in 2010/2011, teams will not be unduly pressured to unload guys by this Feb

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Overlooking an important factor

There could be another team involved. The Salary-Dumping (SD) team doesn’t have to have a player we want, they could have a player that someone else wants.

SD team gives up player A to 3rd Team, 3rd Team gives up player B who we want to Portland, Portland gives cap space (and possibly a player) to SD team.

This greatly broadens the possibilities.

Also, you have teams who want to have cap space to compete for free agents next summer, so may be looking for a salary dump. For those teams, an expiring contract coming back would accomplish their purpose, but getting back cap space would be even more attractive, because it would save them money that they could use to sign that player.

Another possible option that several of us have discussed is a team giving us a bad contract and a high draft pick. We solve their money problem, they give us a draft pick in return. That wouldn’t strengthen us immediately, but it would let us continue to reload with young talent.

There is no guarantee we are going to get anything great with the cap space if we wait until the deadline. But actually, there is no guarantee we can get anything great with it now, either. We can’t give Marvin or Ramon or David a big enough contract to keep their team from matching it, and we don’t gain anything particularly by forcing them to.

Turn it around, and say, “OK, we may not get something great at the deadline, so don’t wait.” Well, then, what should we do? I don’t see a whole lot of really appealing options for us to pursue right now, so suddenly waiting on the chance of something better doesn’t look so bad after all.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Jul 22, 2009 8:09 AM PDT reply actions

Trades require trading partners

Obviously, teams are not going to go out of the way to dump their best players. However, as I tried to point out in my sidebar post under rec’d Fanposts, there are likely to be a variety of teams wanting to reduce salaries for a variety of reasons.

Your post seems to focus almost exclusively on teams above the luxury tax threshold. The luxury tax is only one motivator for teams to dump salary. Teams are also trying to position themselves well under the salary cap in order to make a run at next summer’s bumper crop of FAs. Teams are also trying to position themselves for next years greatly reduced cap and tax thresholds. You are right that they have more time on this front, but it is a significant factor as teams look ahead. I also think it is likely that a number of teams are likely to miss their revenue targets for next season. There are a number of teams whose owners are not rich enough to sustain large scale operating losses. If these teams find that they are not meeting their revenue targets as the season progresses, they may be motivated to make deals.

Again, I am under no illusion that lots of teams are going to just give away top level talent. But I do think there are likely to be a few opportunities to make favorable deals, and believe that the Blazers are well position to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

by upper left corner on Jul 22, 2009 8:53 AM PDT reply actions

it seems KP's "spin room" is blindly acting like we have this great opportunity to do so at the trade deadline.

Thanks for this great analysis. In the last 6 months we’ve seen that the strategy of “waiting” for the right deal isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, and right now KP runs the risk of painting himself into a corner and having dreck to choose from at the trading deadline.

I’d settle for 2 veterans (PG, PF) who can help the team from day 1 being added to the roster before training camp, as opposed to the “hope” of getting a screaming deal later that could be disruptive to the team at midseason

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 22, 2009 9:12 AM PDT reply actions

KP knows the clock is ticking

But how much “waiting” have we really done.

Midseason trades are always disruptive. In retrospect, there are probably a number of deals that we wish we had done in February. But at the time, they all seem very risky, particularly when you know that you will have additional opportunities over the course of the next year. From my perspective, I don’t really fault KP for not making a move at mid-season knowing we had options in the FA market this summer and other trade opportunities in the off-season.

We missed on opportunities in FA market so far. We can argue all we want about the Hedo fit but we were very close to getting him. We didn’t miss because we were sitting back “waiting” for him to come to us. As of today, there don’t seem to be any glaringly obvious opportunities that we should be jumping at. Seems like there are still some shoes to drop in terms of A. Miller, D. Lee and Boozer. I am sure we in and around all those potential opportunities.

There is less time on the clock. Things have changed. We probably don’t want to “wait” much longer due to the potential disruptions of doing something mid-season. We probably end up doing something that is not that “exciting.” Add some pieces rather than a major part.

That is what we do because that is what makes sense for a franchise like us. But I am willing to bet that there WILL be some very big opportunities at the trade deadline. There are some very sick teams that will make a move with a weak hand. I think there will be more opportunities this year at the trade deadline than last. If don’t find the right pieces in the next few months, I don’t think “waiting” would be that bad a thing this year.

by oregontrail on Jul 22, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions

But I am willing to bet that there WILL be

KP can’t afford to roll snake eyes in February

Maybe an aggressive organization makes a move before camp. Maybe it holds the cap space, reassess the landscape around the league and remains a prime trade partner leading up to the February deadline.

“That’s a difficult question,” Pritchard said a few days ago when asked to map out the rest of the offseason. “I’m not trying to sidestep it. I would tell you that we’re open for business. Could something happen tomorrow? Probably not tomorrow. But something could happen in the weeks ahead.”

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/scott_howard-cooper/07/22/blazers/index.html?eref=sircrc

“something could happen in the weeks ahead” Notice KP didn’t say “months”

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 22, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions

The Darius signing tore big holes through the plan, hence the "letter"...

Patty Mills - PG of the future. Book it.

by Blazerholic on Jul 22, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions

"Spin room," "great analysis," uhm, excuse me????

two4larue,

I don’t quite get how writing a summary explaining the difference between the current situation and last season’s RLEC, makes me “KP’s spin room.” The analysis that I put forward can either stand, or fail, on its own. You are certainly free to disagree and take issue with the arguments I put forward. Labelling them and dismissing them as “spin” is just wrong. I welcome a substantive discussion, but don’t much appreciate what comes across as a “cheap shot.”

Regarding the quality of the analysis in this Fanpost, I suggest that you read both jscot and my comments, just above. Clearly, this author missed many of my points. He/she focused almost exclusively on teams in the luxury tax and completely overlooked teams who may be positioning themselves for next summer’s FA market. Furthermore this piece fails to account for the general economic pressures that are likely to be felt by a number of teams if revenues are significantly down.

No one who is not a fool thinks that teams are going to just give away top line players. The argument is that teams are going to be facing very tough choices in a very tough environment. Deals that would have been unacceptable at last seasons trade deadline are likely to be given greater consideration this coming year. There is no guarantee that waiting will yield a great deal. The point is that waiting is a prudent and reasonable coarse of action. We don’t have to make a deal now. When a good deal for the right player becomes available we should take it.

by upper left corner on Jul 22, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions

I pulled the "KP's spin room" line directly out of the text of irish3's original fanshot

it was not intended to be directed at you, or any Bedger (even if the shoe fits, I can’t make anyone wear it)

Pulling quotes out of the previous response and using them as a “header” is one of my common practices—they’re usually the “line of thought” that got me thinking about the topic that I want to respond to (if that makes sense)

I understand that “making a deal just to make a deal” is not a prudent course of action, what I’m continuing to emphasize is that we were “sold” a bill of goods at the trading deadline that “waiting” until this offseason would be beneficial, and (through no fault of his own) KP was unable to deliver the big free agent or blockbuster trade. (And now even Brother Wendell is writing about “The big Raef that got away”—see fanshot—so I’m starting to feel this angst is justified.) Believe me, if KP “holds out” and makes a screaming deal with his capspace at the 11th hour I’ll be just as happy as anyone and say “it was worth it all, after all!” But I’m not the kind of fan who counts his chickens before they hatch

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 23, 2009 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Appreciate the calm reply to my rather cranky comment.

Looking back at my comment from yesterday, I can see that my feathers were a bit ruffled. I will stand by the substance of my comments, but wish I had toned down the volume just a bit.

Thanks for the clarification on the “spin room” comment. I missed that bit of the original post.

Regarding the strategic situation, it is difficult for those of us on the outside to accurately evaluate KP’s choices. We don’t really know what deals have been passed up, either last February or this summer. We can see that he tried to get Turk and Millsap. Both are quality guys, and even though they are different guys, of different ages, at different positions, I can see the logic of each signing and think each would have been a pretty good fit.

Furthermore, I would suggest that KP’s strategy should not be evaluated on whether or not he eventually winds up with a blockbuster move. Unbalanced trades require willing trading partners, that is beyond KP’s control. He may or may not find a partner for such a trade. I think it makes more sense to evaluate the strategy against the safe options available to KP. It seems reasonable to suggest that we could have had Brandon Bass. We probably could sign an offer sheet big enough to get Sessions. Even if we get Miller at say $6 million for 3 years (maybe the third is only partially guaranteed), that should be judged against the $10 million that he wanted at the beginning of the FA signing period.

Let me make an analogy, in poker it is pretty common to see a player make all the right bets and position themselves well according to the odds, only to be outdrawn by an opponent on the turn, or the river. My argument is that KP is making smart bets. He is playing the odds. He went after the guys he thought were the best fit. His failure to land them was largely not in his control. Eventually he make rake in a big pot, or he may get outdrawn. Even if he does, it does not mean that he made a bad bet, it just means he did not have good fortune.

Obviously, this point of view can be taken to an extreme to excuse any outcome. KP will ultimately be held accountable for what he manages to come up with. If it is less than Bass, feel free to admonish him. I’ve got my fingers crossed. If we get something better, we are going to have a hell of a team,

by upper left corner on Jul 24, 2009 6:37 AM PDT up reply actions

What's your point?

That KP is done waiting for the right deal and now will just do any deal?

I am not arguing that something won’t happen soon (by that I mean in the month or so). In fact, I said I don’t think we wait much longer. And what we do add probably won’t be that “exciting”. Adding pieces not parts.

I making two main points.

1. Waiting is just a bad term. I don’t think KP is or has been “waiting.” OKC, for example, sounds like they are (they are very green and time is definitely on their side). We sound like we are evaluating every deal and looking to take action on the right opportunity. We have been active, we just haven’t been able to get a deal that makes sense for us to drop.

2. I generally disagree with the above post. I think there will be a lot of trade opportunities at the trade deadline. Time will only tell on that one.

In general, I just disagree with the thought that “waiting for the right isn’t all its cracked up to be.” You probably noticed the quote from Popovich in the same article. “They might be the deepest, most talented team in the league.” Doesn’t seem like his perspective is that we are a team that has to do something.

We will roll the dice. I think its nearly impossible for KP not to do some sort of deal. But if you want to crap out, its doing a deal because its seems like it has to be done, that there is no other alternative. Rather than “waiting” for what makes sense.

by oregontrail on Jul 22, 2009 11:11 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

meant to reply to two4larue

by oregontrail on Jul 22, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions

I don’t think KP is or has been "waiting"

It was necessary to wait from the February trading deadline until the end of the season, since no deals could be made during that time period

And the “last” comment from the front office following the midnight deadline back in February was (words to the effect, not a direct quote) “we decided not to make a deal because we didn’t want to disrupt team chemistry, and because we felt there would be better opportunities during the June draft or after the July deadline”

There’s no doubt that KP has been “actively” pursuing opportunities when he’s had the opportunity, and he would’ve acquired Turk if Hedo and his wife hadn’t gone to Toronto (and the last few weeks of BE would’ve been much more peaceful). I don’t have a problem with KP, except that he tends to raise expectations that he has no guarantee of ever reaching. I do have a problem with fans who think the roster is “fine just the way it is” because if that was true, the Blazers would’ve done better in the Rocket’s series. The roster “needs” were glaring even before the playoffs and until they are addressed I’m not going to relax and enjoy the pre-season.

“Organic growth” sounds all nice and natural but all you have to do is look at NBA history to see that kids don’t win championships on their own (shoot, even the ‘77 Blazers had Herm Gilliam, otherwise they were probably the youngest roster ever to win it all) The PG position needs to be upgraded, and more toughness (in general) needs to be added to the PF position (to be specific). These are not just my observations, they have been voiced by NBA experts from inside and outside the Blazer’s organization for the last several months. “Standing pat” has never been an option, and I will continue to oppose the spirit of complacency (e.g. “let the cake bake”) at BE until the roster is complete and all the necessary pieces have been put in place!

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 22, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions

You've done some good analysis

Just a few things quickly (and I’ll try to get back to this thread later tonight with a more extensive reply):

1) Your statement of go to the “hoops hype” link at the top, its updated with FA signings is not quite true. Check out Atlanta, Dallas and Detroit for example. Be careful using Hoopshype as your final source of team salary figures.

2) Your statement of Even if salary cap dips lower in 2010/2011, teams will not be unduly pressured to unload guys by this Feb is not quite true either. It’s the lowering of the luxury tax threshold that will probably be the key – and teams are absolutely starting to get nervous about the project that the threshold could drop $7 or $8 million next summer. You are correct, though, that a good number of teams do hold their future in their own hands at this point – if they don’t spend more money, they won’t be above the threshold. But for the teams that don’t have that control right now….

3) The other issue in teams trying to cut salary in February is something I don’t think you mention – clearing cap room for the summer of 2010. Chicago is a good example of this. No, they won’t be above the tax threshold next Spring. No, they aren’t in danger of going over the threshold in 2011 if they stand pat, either. But will they potentially be looking to shed future salary to make a splash in the 2010 free agent market? Check out one of their fan boards – the answer is absolutely yes.

4) Finally, I commend you for going out on a limb to say something that might not be the most positively-accepted post here on BlazersEdge. I also don’t expect any uneven trade that happens either this summer or this season to bring back a current All-Star. However, just because the trade does not add a player like Chris Paul does not make it a bad trade. It’s not all or nothing. If a trade or two can be done to add to the core that the Blazers already have and improve the team in that respect, it could be an amazing trade. For example, the rumored Hinrich deal. Nobody expects Hinrich to be an All-Star. But if his perimeter defense is truly an upgrade over Blake, then the deal could add several victories to the win column for the Blazers next season. Possibly the difference between having HC advantage and not having it in a playoff series.

As I said, I’ll try to do a more extensive post tonight when I have more time. Good job of thinking!

by Storyteller on Jul 22, 2009 11:57 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

nice analysis

definitely looking forward to your post tonight.

BTW to irish3, when doing the salary cap analysis I’d suggest use Storyteller’s website as it is constantly updated with latest FA signings & trades and very accurate most of (if not all) the time.

by iverigma2 on Jul 22, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks for the plug

I do need to finish another update tonight – I got behind a bit over the last week trying to attend as many Summer League games as possible…

by Storyteller on Jul 22, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Possibly the difference between having HC advantage and not having it in a playoff series.

While regular season “positioning” for playoff seeding will always be important, I’m much more concerned that the players who are acquired will be able to help the youngsters win games and series in the postseason. That is where reputations are made or unmade

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Jul 22, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions

In defense of original post, let me give a friendly critique of a few of the comments I have heard...

To begin with, this is not meant to be argumentative, but discussion based, and I’ve appreciated all the positive discussion, but to my perspective, I still see a bit too much optimisim on the ability to improve our team significantly as the season progresses…

1st: The notion that their will be teams begging us to take players so they can be players in FA seems, at least in large part, false…

* Reality: Few teams actually lose their top FA’s. GM’s know this. Players lose millions in salary by leaving their team, and will only leave if it means advertisement $$$ increases. The notion that half the league is out there clearing room for 2010 FA’s is not reality. I checked out Storyteller’s quaility site, by looking at it, & reflecting on realistic rumblings in the leage (ex: Realizing no one is going to go to Memphis to play as a top FA, nor will Memphis break the bank for anyone), I’d argue only Chicago, Detroit, Miami, NJ, & NY even realistically think they can get one of those “max players.”

     Why? Ex: Heat can give Wade more than anyone else, so even if OKC gives a max deal, why leave your home, friends, kids school, legacy, ect….for a small market team that you’ll never be able to make huge endorsements in?

     Therefore few teams will be trying to clear room for this scenario, and they clearly don’t think they need PDX to do this, otherwise, Jerry Reinsdorf would have caved by now if he thought the only way he could lose 10 million in player salaries, was if he traded Captain Kirk for Blake + Outlaw, or that would have been done by now, and Joe Dumars in clearly not shaking in his boots as we threaten to blow our extra cap room if we don’t take T. Prince off of his hands either. It is a “homeristic” thought, not reality.

*I’d argue most observers will finally admit you see a max of 3 “top” FA’s leave that year for a new team, at most…(maybe Bosh, Wade, Amare) Boozer will likely be locked up by then, T-Mac is no longer elite, ect.

* NBA Chatter Indicates Top FA’s Signing Early – People aren’t seeing this, as league salary cap lowers, so does the “max contract,” and to those “with ears to hear,” is subtletly indicating guys like Boozer, Wade, Lebron, & Amare would rather extend their contract early…GM’s realize these guys may not even be on the market in 2010…therefore they won’t be trying so hard to clear up cap room…

*Conclusion: Thinking a lot of teams will be unloading in order to get top FA’s, and forced to trade with us to do so, are “no sure thing…”

2nd: I’ll make this point short, at the trading deadline, who is in a more enviable position: KP telling some GM “this is your last chance, if you don’t unload that player, you’ll lose 8 million in savings…or Jerry Reinsdorf saying, take the trade proposal we are forcing down your throat, because this will be your last chance ever to significantly improve your team, and your dynasty could whither away as the trade deadline passes…”

3rd: In reference to Storyteller admitting we don’t need an all-star to improve our team, I agree, BUT the Kirk reference, in reality that would hardly be a modest upgrade, 90% of critical observers say he’d be an almost perfect fit for this team, also, if we haven’t been able to pry him lose by now, why do we really think Jerry R. will allow us to get him w/o giving up a prized asset like Bayless? That move would hardly be a dump, and coud turn into a J. Kidd for Devin type of trade later on

* "Modest Upgrade* – When we have a team as talented as ours, we should realize its difficult to get a “modest upgrade” that fits our overall team. This is why we didn’t trade for Vince Carter or R. Jefferson, they’re great players…but clearly KP didn’t value those moves that much. Why? I guess because he sees we need to upgrade our perimeter D at that position, as well as find a guy who can hit the 3 with regularity…finding a “fit” like Kirk is not easy…its easier it your team stinks…to “improve” “weak areas” on a solid team, not so easy…for example, with all his flaws, at this point, it is hard to believe we will find a SF to improve our team as much as V. Carter could have…I have a feeling 6 months from now we will have found we wish we pulled the trigger on that one, or even R. Jefferson…

    4th: I love Marvin Williams, so in regard to that…
               * I would definately argue that a 10 million dollar a year contract, and a promise to trade them Outlaw, could cause the cheap ATL ownership to let their restricted FA go…I once again checked out Storytellers amazing sight, do the math, an economically challenged team will very likely not want to pay this much, in this economy, when they have so much $$$ tied up!!!
               * For ATL, Marvin at 10 million a year essentially means $68 million locked up in 2010 for 9 players!!! (takes into account resigning Joe Johnon for 16 million) I’d like anyone to tell me, with the “bad times” coming, how many people think ATL wants that type of payroll???

    5th: Generalities Don’t Matter In This Conversation, Specifics Do — Again, not trying to be argumentative…I’ve appreciated all of the thoughts, and they have made me somewhat more optimistic, but…I keep hearing things like “So many teams will be looking to get, or stay under the salary cap…” but…
        Start looking at SPECIFIC teams this applies to, and its not nearly as many as people seem to think. I’ve scoured the teams, and teams are in better economics than posters give them credit for…the poor teams are staying out of luxury tax (vast majority at least), and the teams that are in the luxury tax, don’t give a care, because they are about winning. I don’t care if teams like the Spurs have injuries early, even they won’t sell low unless its season ending, they would simply hope there guys get healthy by May…
      SPECIFICALLY, WHAT TEAMS ARE REALLY STRESSED TO CUT COSTS??? NO, PHO, UTAH? Wizards maybe by Feb???
     * I find not many, and even if revenue goes down, its dramatized…non-contending teams simply don’t have that much money locked up for 2010…don’t believe me, check out Storyteller’s site, and realize the league is projecting the luxury tax line to be lowered to 65 million by then, teams will still be ok (And if you tell me the Mavs will be over, and also make me believe that Mark Cuban cares, then I’m sure you can sell me a “bag of dirt” for top dollar too…

6th: Last Point: My Theory even the best observers are biased by the media — Ex: 2 Days ago I saw Jackie McMullen, Espn “expert” tell everyone that the Blazers are in a great position bc they can just save their cap room and use it on the “vaunted 2010 class!!” Ugggggg…. I think we are so bombarded with ESPN trying to create drama, when a “real” newsperson would tell us the likely facts, “few FA’s are likely to leave their teams in 2010 due to the fact they’ll lose money, history shows they don’t move, and the vast majority of GM’s are not trying to clear cap space for this possibility, ect.”
*So, we get “wrong” info, and also ‘dramatized info’ to sell papers/increase viewers…but I feel the much more “realistic approach” is to realize there won’t be much movement next year…I hope you get the drift here, bc to me, it is one more reason why teams won’t be begging to unload contracts

Closing, for a second time, I am not completely forgetting the “3 team” deals, nor the fact it is possible some poor team under the luxury tax will just want to dump salary, but again, the history of RLEC going unused, and all of these points, just seems to me that they are hardly a “slam dunk” from occurring. We still run into the same difficulties: Getting a good player, that actually fits our team, without giving up too much, is no easy feat

by irish3 on Jul 22, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

http://www.blogabull.com/2009/7/21/957364/the-chicago-bulls-fiscal-nba

PS: Interesting Outline: According To Forbes, It looks like many teams are not in the fiscal trouble many think…ex: For all their trobles, Wizards made 15 million last year

by irish3 on Jul 22, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Teams that might be looking to cut costs

You mentioned NO, PHO, UT. Also possibly Washington.

Remember that the difference between being in the luxury tax by one dollar and out of it is something like $3 million. So if you are $3 million over the threshold and you can lose that $3 million in salary at mid-season, it saves you $7.5 million (half a year salary, $3 million in luxury tax, plus $3 million you would receive from other luxury tax payers). So a team doesn’t have to have a $90 million payroll to have a real incentive here.

Other possibilities, many of which are unlikely, but still possible:
1. Atlanta. Depending on what kind of contract Williams gets, they could be in luxury tax. If the season doesn’t go well for them, they could be looking to dump salary.
2. Chicago. Looks like they’ll be in the luxury tax zone this year, and if the team struggles, they might look to dump salary, especially if it helps position them for a free agent.
3. Denver. They did a salary dump a year ago, and are still heavily into the luxury tax. Not likely, but who knows?
4. Detroit. If the Gordon/Stuckey/Hamilton trio isn’t working well, could they look to dump Rip? Doesn’t look likely, but it would give them cap space.
5. Houston. Another key injury and this will be a bad team. By shedding a little bit of salary (Carl Landry, maybe? Or even Battier, if they think he might slow down in a year or two), they could get out of the luxury tax zone.
6. Miami. Not very far into the luxury tax zone. If their team is bad again, who knows? Unlikely, but possible.
7. Milwaukee. If Sessions gets near MLE, they are in luxury tax zone. They do not want to be. They have to make a decision on Bowen before 8/1 or he gets full salary. (If Portland or someone else wants Sessions, they may be waiting until after 8/1 to make it harder for Milwaukee to match). So the Bucks could end up in the luxury tax zone if they keep Bowen and end up having to match a decent offer for Sessions.
8. Orlando. If swapping out Hedo for Vince turns out to be a disaster, and they are losing games and money, they might want to dump some salary. Unlikely.
9. Philadelphia. If they retain Miller, they might be at or over the cap. If the season goes poorly, perhaps.

Is any one of those teams likely to be wanting to dump salary this year? No. But of all those possibilities, it would hardly be surprising if one or two of them ended up doing so.

It is almost certain that throughout the league there will be at least 3-4 teams who would like to dump salary in an unbalanced trade between now and the trading deadline. Probably there will be 8-10 who would like to unload some salary, and would be willing to take back less talent than they give up to do so. Their tolerance for talent disparity, and the amount of financial relief they need, will vary widely.

But then you look at the teams who have cap space to offer, and the list is very short. And then you look at the teams who are willing to spend the money to offer that cap space to someone else, and the list is even shorter.

The chances are very good that at least one team will be willing to part with a significant asset for our cap space. If it isn’t an asset we want, then it is simply a matter of finding another team that does want that asset, and is willing to part with an asset we do want.

Precisely two years ago, Seattle turned cap space (or I think it was a trade exception, but for trading purposes it is the same) into Kurt Thomas and two Phoenix first round picks. Seven months later, they traded Thomas for Brent Barry, Francisco Elson, and a Spurs first round pick.

If KP can turn this cap space into two guys who never play for us and three future first round picks, that wouldn’t break my heart. I hope he can do better than that, but who knows? I will be shocked if we don’t make some deal that helps us. It isn’t an asset KP is likely to waste.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Jul 23, 2009 5:34 AM PDT up reply actions

A lot can change between

now and february, but I think your point is correct that WAS and PHO could be possible trading partners.

Also, we will have that cap space all they way until June 30th 2010. Teams seem to get antsy around that time to make draft time moves that we may still be in the mix for.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

I will talk about DeJuan Blair no more forever

by jonestr on Jul 22, 2009 2:28 PM PDT reply actions