Seeking Veterans - Tail Wagging The Dog?
by TwoDeep on Jul 2, 2009 9:21 PM PDT
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PrintAre we seeing here an example of the tail wagging the dog?
Pritchard: Let the cake bake. We'll grow organically.
McMillan: I need veterans. Let's get us some veterans.
Who's in control here, the dog or the tail? We are about to make, it appears, a big move(s), expensive and difficult to retract to acquire one or more of Nate's preciously viewed veterans.
Coaches of course - to hold their jobs - see the need to win immediately. GM's are more often in a position to think longer term. From his vantage point, Nate's requests/demands are totally understandable. But should Pritchard be sacrificing or undermining a good degree of the very skillful maneuvering he has heretofore done to build our extremely promising and talented group of young Blazers players?
Also lurking though in the back of my mind, is this statement (as reported by Quick) that KP made following a discussion with Paul Allen: "Overall our time line has moved up" (to me that was an ominous statement for a couple of reasons and one I felt would have repercussions).
So could it be it isn't the tail doing the wagging after all and instead it's the 'big dog" who is controlling the movements?
What are your thoughts? Why are we seemingly making these aggressive moves to acquire a 30 year old veteran such as Turkoglu for a position that already seems quite occupied with young talent?
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It's use it or lose it
They will sign Roy and Aldridge to extensions. After this year, they will extend Oden. It’s either this year or never when it comes to free agents.
It's use or it lose it but
they could use it to get more younger players if they wanted to. (I’m not saying they should.)
Keep in mind that everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazers Edge.
They could go for players that fit the obvious needs instead of creating a log jam where there is obvious talent.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
This is how you win championships.
You build and build, and then you tweak to get over the final hump. 30 is NOT old in the NBA, sorry. How old is Kobe?
?????????????????
Why would anyone question this move? So what Travis gets traded Martell has to prove himself ready, Batum and Bayless have to mature meanwhile the rest of the team is ready to move on to the next level. So I say sit back and enjoy the ride because its putup or shutup time now!
I agree on your points, but I question this move for two reasons:
1. $50 million reported price tag is way too much.
2. 5 year contract that Hedo is after is way too long.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
Money doesn't matter. In fact the more the better.
We will not be under the cap any time soon. There probably is a point that PA would say enough is enough but it is probably around 20-30 million over the cap. Hedo if he doesn’t suck or get injured should have at least 3-4 good seasons after that it could be the HTEC which is a great asset for bringing in more talent. If Hedo starts sucking in year 3 or 4 we hopefully will have our young talent to fill the minutes hole his benching provide. If We get him we got the best asset on the free agent market for our team possibly the best asset on the market, a bad fit wouldn’t mean we couldn’t trade him some teams would still be interested with the way he played in the playoffs, teams like that.
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Jul 3, 2009 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Another Scenario
Paul Allen did not get the normal thrill he always does during the Draft so he expects KP to deliver on Free Agency, Nate really likes Turk because he is a vet who can play the way he wants his team to play and possibly deliver immediate wins since this is a contract year for Nate. KP is succumbing to their wishes while trying not to loose everything he has built.
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
I think this is the back up plan and miles money was supose to never have been put on our roster... #$!@#%!@% memphis and their flat topography!!
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
"New Man Law: If you don't show up for the draft you don't get to come later if you're picked. If you believe in yourself, show up and sit there. If nobody else believes in you, take it and cry like a man...in front of the cameras."
-Dave
or something like that.
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
"New Man Law: If you don't show up for the draft you don't get to come later if you're picked. If you believe in yourself, show up and sit there. If nobody else believes in you, take it and cry like a man...in front of the cameras."
-Dave
Nate, KP, and PA
are all working really closely together. If any of them was truly unhappy about something there’s a good chance KP or Nate would move on. There are plenty of players out there, if we’re targeting someone then I can pretty much guarantee that Nate and KP are on the same page in the short-term and long-term with what they want from this individual.
Chris Dudley for three!
It's very simple
We have a dynasty in place, with at least three perennial all stars (Roy, LMA, Oden) and at least one other (Bayless) who is likely to be an all star before he is done. We have the SF of the future, and perhaps within a year or two Rudy will be the best sixth man in the league.
We have championships coming, lots of them. But we aren’t ready to win one this year unless we get lucky. Sure, without making a move we probably win 60 games, but L.A., Cleveland, and probably Boston and/or Orlando would still be fairly strongly favored to beat us this year.
By getting a top veteran now, without destroying our core for the future, it makes us top contenders now. All it costs is money which will foul up our cap situation, but that is going to be a mess soon anyway.
This is simply about opening the championship window sooner without messing up the core for the future.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
I can understand that perspective.
I think that is a reasonable expectation to have, and I think it is possible to advance the experience level without messing too much with the core, the question I have is how in 3 years (assuming they give Turkoglu the five years he’s seeking), the two years and $20 million left on that contract are going to be an obstacle to allowing those emerging talents that needed some time to grow to actually play, and may be an obstacle against keeping them around as well.
Is that really worth it?
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
Wow, that was a runon sentence. Sorry about that.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
We aren't going to have cap space anyway
KP is telling PA:
“If we do this, we’ll be in the luxury tax in three years, and no escape. It’s going to cost you $10 million a year this year and next, but after that, it is luxury tax land, so it will cost double — $20 million a year for the last three years, and he may not even play much the last two years. You’ll be paying big bucks for five years just for prying open the window a year or two earlier.”
If PA says, “Go for it, I’ll pay,” then I don’t see a huge problem with it. I’m not saying I would make the move. It will give us a nice expiring contract in several years as well, when we’re looking to reload at some position or other.
You are right, the runon was impressive. I don’t think I could do it if I tried, so for someone to do that without trying is really good.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
The question is, was it actually grammatically incorrect or simply unnecessarily long?
As far as the money pinch, I just don’t want to see this deal be the catalyst for breaking others that will be more valuable but consequently unavailable down the road. Yeah PA can always open the deep pockets, but I fear that for anything less than the core three, that won’t be all that likely.
To me this opens up a big question in my mind: What hapens to the chemistry KP keeps saying is a major part of his strategy?
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
Since you asked, I feel obligated to tell you.
Your sentence did not end up being grammatically correct, but probably by a smaller margin than you would have imagined.
μὴ φοβοῦ, μόνον πίστευε.
I think we do
I think that Brandon is a probable Hall of Famer, and Greg is going to be one of the top 3 centers in the league for 10 years or more, a possible Hall of Famer as well.
I think LMA is going to be a perennial all star.
I think Bayless makes the Big Three the Big Four. I said that when we got him, and still believe it.
I think Rudy is an incredible talent for off the bench, probably one of the top 15 SGs in the league within 2 years. Nic (in 2-3 years) is going to be a legit starter on virtually any team, a Tayshaun Prince level talent. I think Joel at backup center is better than a lot of starting centers.
That isn’t even addressing the possibility of Martell exploding, or a draft pick or one of our stashed Euros becoming a contributor.
Will everything I just said actually pan out? Probably not. But enough will that we’ll win as many championships as the Spurs have, and very possibly more.
All of that is without actually making any moves.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
wow
I really have nothing to say, other than that I think you are going to be really, really disappointed.
by jksnake99 on Jul 3, 2009 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Better to expect high and be disappointed than expect low and be surprised.
Wait. Is that how it works?
μὴ φοβοῦ, μόνον πίστευε.
KP is appeasing Nate and PA
at the expense of the long term well being of this franchise. We’re forcing the issue this year, even though our chances at a championship this year are minuscule at best.
In years 3, 4 and above, this is going to look like a bad move, as we’ll see guys we could’ve had still contributing at a high level, while Hedo becomes a liability.
Couldn't this signing just indicate...
a decision has been made on Outlaw? My thinking has been way too uptight about this move. If I see Hedo as taking over Outlaw’s role (by that I mean third scorer not 6th man/28 min), it is a huge improvement. He is a better rebounder, playmaker, and all around player than Outlaw. Even if the only other change is that Outlaw is traded for either some insurance at the PG position or at PF, your line up is going to be better and might even make a strong run at a title, depending on the improvements made over the summer by the young guys.
The cost does concern me but it might prove to be worth it.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
The problem with that assumption
Outlaw was only in line to play 10 minutes off the bench at power forward. Hedo isn’t anymore of a mismatch at that position than Outlaw is there (Outlaw plays well at PF). So, you’re not really upgrading too much from Outlaw in that regard.
And what I mean by this move being at the expenses of the long term well being is that we could be using this money to look at our problems down the road, when we’re ACTUALLY going to be in our championship window. You know what we could have had instead of Hedo? Trevor Ariza and Brandon Bass. Subtract Travis Outlaw and you’d have more than enough to sign both Trevor Ariza and Brandon Bass to above MLE level contracts. Both are 24 years old, and will be very good players for the next 5 years. All 5 years will be in our window. What Hedo essentially does is give us a slightly better chance this year, even though that chance is still pretty minuscule, at the cost of our chances at championships 3 years and beyond.
So the cost isn’t really 10 million dollars, that money was going to be gone anyway. The real investment is
Trevor Ariza (from age 24-29) and Brandon Bass (from age 24-29)
Instead we get Travis Outlaw (age 25) and Hedo Turkoglu (from age 30-35)
It’s a really bad net.
I get it but I don't agree with your assumption
I wouldn’t say the Blazers are a favorite to win next year but I think the window is open, if even just a little bit, even if they don’t sign Hedo. Watching the Lakers, Cavs, and Magic this year made me confident that they are not that far away from contending and even winning one.
Signing Hedo gives them a veteran that has been in a lot of playoff battles over his career and opens that window a little bit more. It also makes it clear that they will make another move involving their SFs for another veteran player that will give them a better mix of youth, talent, and experience. Hedo wasn’t the guy I wanted them to go after but I think he does make the team better and allows them to move some of their young talent to get more of what they need.
As for Ariza and Bass: Ariza could prove to be a player who was in the right place at the right time. He hasn’t proven anything over the course of his career and the Blazers would be taking a bigger risk even if it was for less money. Bass would be a nice player to add but is he available??
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Hedo is a poised vet
neither Ariza or Bass bring that aspect with their game. Hedo will be a veteran leader whohas been there and done that…which is a piece sorely missing from the Blazer squad not youth. All of our young guys will be better for having played alongside Hedo. Howard and Lewis sure were better for it. Blake was the veteran of the team now Hedo takes that role. Those are big untangibles, even if Hedo is not getting the mInutes in the final year(s) of his contract. He is getting paid now for mentoring and what he bring to the court as an upgrade to Outlaw. He knows he will not be the “man” and will be an excellent role player. His knowledge will rub off. It certainly happened when we brought Pippen to PDX.
The cost is PA $, of which he care spare a few bucks. We also will lose Outlaw as well as I think Webster/Batum is a better longterm plan. Webster can also wait until his foot is completely ready and has practiced with the team. There will be no rush to get him back too soon. Thus Hedo gives us an insurance policy at the wing down the road and in the near term with Martell.
On top of that Hedo can handle the ball, which is waht we desperately needed.a second scorer who can handle the ball in crunch-time. Hedo can score and dish as well as hit the long ball, which fits our offense perfectly. And he runs/pushes the ball. This drops our need to upgrade the point allowing Bayless the time he needs to develope without taking him off the court.
In years 3, 4 and above, this is going to look like a bad move
There’s no way to measure the impact that Hedo will make on the young player’s development
You can look at it from the negative angle “Turk is playing so Batum (etc) aren’t going to realize their potential”
Or, you could choose to see it another way, like Nate and KPhave done. They expect Hedo to be a veteran presense to assist Roy, LMA, Oden (and yes, even Rudy) climb the path up the mountain to reach the hoped-for championship (I think the term Dave used was “sherpa”)
Would the kids get to the same level of play without Turk? Perhaps, we’ll never know. You can say “we don’t need this goofy-looking Serbian who will make all this money and who’s stats are crappy” but the player(s) that you’re suggesting the Blazers go after instead might be a worse “fit” for any number of intangible reasons.
At the end of next season, and the season after that “where” will the Blazers wind up? Will they have won a playoff series? Will they have gone to the WCF? Will they have won a championship? You keep saying that their chances of winning it all next year are “miniscule” but I’ll bet you wouldn’t look Nate or Brandon in the eye and say it to their face. These are the guys who are putting their bodies and careers and reputations on the line nearly every night for 9 months to have a chance at being the best. If they think that Hedo can help them get to where they want to be, well excuse me, who are you to say that you know better what’s best for the ballclub?
So maybe we’ll all be sitting around typing 3-4 years from now and agree “yep, those Blazers were sure dumb to sign Hedo back in 2009…what the heck were they thinking?” But right now, the powers that be feel strongly that he’s the right guy to add to the roster, even if they have to outbid the Raptors for his services. YOu can get on board with that or continue to gripe about it, your choice. I’m not gonna say that given the opportunity I wouldn’t do things differently, but I also think that Portland’s chances at a deep playoff run are better than miniscule and that KP isn’t being strong-armed into this decision by any coach or owner.
"The guy’s a winner, first of all, and without a doubt, the best thing about him is he makes the players around him better," Pritchard said. "He has played in 82 playoff games, so he brings that experience we have always wanted. He’s a guy who makes the right plays at the right times and is willing to take the big shot. And he’s a big pick-and-roll forward who can play multiple positions.
"We need someone to get us over the hump, and we feel like he can," Pritchard said.
http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/07/turkoglu_tries_on_portland_for.html
If the Blazers sign Hedo to a 5 year $50 million contract
In two years he will be known as HTEC.
- Carl
This proposed move to sign Hedo
has evidently caused at least a little dissension already with Rudy. Nic and Martel likely could be similarly affected. Is it worth the cost ? As as11osu has pointed out, sure this acquisition likely makes us better now but unless Oden explodes this year, projections that Hedo will give us a chance to win it all this coming season are pretty unrealistic (and if and when Oden explodes, we stand a good chance of winning all the marbles with or without Turkey Glue).
Is there any way that we could sign Turkoglu for less than 5 years? I’m now rooting really hard for Toronto to win this tug-a-war for Hedo. Listen to your wife Hedo!
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
I think the window has been opened up...
It seems that they are expecting to compete this year for a title. I have been looking at so many different sites I can’t remember where I read it but KP hinted at the notion that Allen has seen the growth in the team and is ready to raise expectations for everybody, KP included. If they sign Hedo, then move Outlaw and others for a PG or a solid back up PF/banger, I think they can contend this year. The top spots in the NBA are up for grabs right now. There isn’t one team, or a couple, that sits high above all of them and that everyone is gunning for. Even the Lakers were not impressive in their championship run.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
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