The last couple of weeks have been really fun for Blazer fans.  We've had the privilege of agonizing over trades of draft picks, despairing over the guy(s) who we didn't pick, and wondering at whom KP was going to throw Paul Allen's money.  Now, we get to rejoice or sink into depression (whatever floats your boat) that he's going to throw that money at Hedo.

This has all been so much fun I decided to return briefly from my work exile and come back and say this:  we don't have a clue what KP is really going to do.

History

Who on the Bedge predicted the following:

1. The way we acquired LaMarcus Aldridge.
2. The way we acquired Brandon Roy.
3. The makeup of the Zach trade fascilitating the acquisition of James Jones and Rudy Fernandez.  
4. The acquisition of the rights to Jerryd Bayless.
5. The Diogu/Ruffin trade.
6. etc.

Undeniable truth:  KP is unpredictable, and few of his moves were signaled in the media in advance.

Rumors

1. Supposedly, we're trying to sign Hedo.
2. Supposedly, if we don't get him we're going to get Ariza.
3. Previously, there were rumors about Kidd.
4. Bibby has been mentioned.
5. Sessions has been mentioned.
6. Miller has been mentioned.
7. Trading for Nash has been mentioned.

Undeniable truth: Most of the rumors aren't true.  Maybe the Hedo/Ariza rumors are true, and maybe they aren't.

What we Know for Sure

There are some things we do know:

1. We know that Blair was not considered an option even in the second round.  We do not know why.
2. We know that quantity for quality trades are usually expensive.  It cost 2 late second round picks (though they were very unlikely to be of use to us) to move up two spots in the first round.  It cost Sergio and cash to move up to #31.
3. We know that KP saw value in moving from #24 to #22.  We do not know why.  Maybe it was part of a plan to move up further that didn't pan out, or to draft someone that went at #20 or 21 that he thought he could get at #22, or he thought Dallas might pick Claver, or he originally intended to draft Casspi and changed his mind, or for some other reason.
4. We know that KP cleared a little more cap room by trading Sergio and drafting a Euro.
5. We know that if he wanted someone who was drafted higher than #22, the cost of trading up was greater than he was willing to  pay. 
6. We know that there was no one available at #22 and that was not expected to be available at #31 that KP thought would significantly help us right now, so he drafted for the future.
7. We know that he saw some value in trading up to #31 which indicates they thought highly of Pendergraph.
8. We know that KP sees value in having the rights to high-talent Euros.
9. We know that we can relatively painlessly get to a salaries plus cap holds level of just under $50 million.
10. We know that the current NBA Salary Cap is $58.68 million, which means if it does not change, we have just under $9 million a year to offer, and we can increase to $10 million by renouncing Koponen and Freeland.
11. We know that the NBA Salary Cap is reported to be going down to $57.3 million.  If this is true, to offer Hedo $10 million a year, we have to renounce the rights to Claver as well, or else make a trade that reduces our salaries in some other way.  Therefore, we are unlikely to have actually offered Hedo $10 million a year until any such trade is actually nailed down -- the likelihood of renouncing Claver right now is low, and that is the only way we could make that offer right now.  Given that there are not many teams that would want to make a trade that increases their salary commitment (and reduces ours), the likelihood of such a trade is low.  Therefore, if we are going to pay Hedo $10 million a year, it will almost certainly be via a sign and trade that sends someone (and their salary) to Orlando -- which means, depending on who we send (or perhaps I should say "how much salary we send"), we may still have a little cap space to work with after acquiring Hedo. 

Most of the other things that we "know" we don't actually know.  We don't know that Portland wanted Psycho T, whatever Larry Miller said (was that said for an ulterior motive?  Who knows?).  We don't know why Blair was passed over (though we know that lots of GMs and/or team doctors made the same assessment as Portland, and they probably know a lot more than even the most knowledgeable fans).  We don't know what they really thought of Lawson.  We don't know if KP really tried to move higher in the draft or not.  We don't know whether the guys they got were really the guys they targeted all along (we know Nate said that, but he would, wouldn't he?).

We don't know if we've made a firm offer to Hedo, and if we have, none of us really has a clue what the terms of that offer are.  We don't know if we've made offers to anyone else.  We don't know what Rudy has said to Portland, or what he really thinks.  We don't know if KP has talked to NJ about Harris.  We don't know if NJ is willing to shop him or not (I personally doubt it).  We don't know if KP has talked to Sessions' agent, though Sessions' agent ought to have been calling KP, if he's doing his job.

What Could be Happening re: Hedo

1. KP could be targeting Shane Battier.  If Houston is playing hard to get, he could be using Turkoglu negotiations as a ploy to send the message to the Rockets that we don't have to deal with you, so you'd better quit the silly demands or we'll just sign Hedo and you can just drift into Yao-less mediocrity without any of our young talent. 
2. He could be plotting an unbalanced trade for someone else and is again using Hedo as leverage to pressure potential trading partners.
3. KP could have a deal in place for Devin Harris for Steve, Rudy, and Travis.  If Rudy goes, Martell becomes our backup SG, and with Travis also gone we are suddenly thin at SF.  Hedo could be the key to getting Harris without devastating the rest of our lineup -- both Martell and Nic can backup the two wing spots.
4. We may have offered Hedo $8 million a year for 4 years, telling his agent he won't get more than that anywhere else, and the agent may be spreading rumours of more than that to try and get Toronto to increase their offer. 
5. We may be after Ariza for $6 million a year for 3 years, and allowing all the Hedo talk to go forward without any denials as a negotiating tactic with Ariza's agent.
6. We may be after Artest for $6-7 million for 3 years.  How many teams are able to go over the MLE for Artest, especially teams that give him any chance at a championship?
7. We may be targeting Jason Kidd as our real free agent target, and trying to get him down into the $8 million for 3 years range.  By allowing the Hedo rumors to run wild, you let Kidd know that actually, there aren't very many teams with cap space, and certainly not that many who want an old guy, so you'd better play ball on our terms or we'll spend our money on Hedo.
8. KP may be planning a sign and trade to acquire Hedo that will still give him some cap space for another deal.

 Are any of those things actually happening?  Who knows?

A Buyer's Market

 Ultimately, it's a buyer's market right now.  There are few teams with cap space, plenty of free agents wanting contracts, and plenty of teams who would like to swing a deal to dump some salary. 

In a buyer's market, when hardly anyone has enough money to buy and lots of people want to sell, you can get a great house for a good price.  Find a house you really like, one that is really good for your family, and one where the current owner needs to sell.  Make sure the owner's agent is aware that there are a lot of other really good houses out there, and there are others that you really liked, and you could buy them.  But, you like this house, too, enough to buy it if the owner will take your offer.  The owner knows if you walk away he may not be able to find a buyer who is even able to offer close to what you are offering.  Suddenly, the presence of all those other houses makes your offer look a lot better to him than it would have.  He may hate it, he may think you are ripping him off, but he has to take the offer because he may not get another one this good for two years.

KP is smart enough to know he is in a buyer's market.  He holds more cards than anyone else right now -- for free agents, who else has both cap space and the ability to offer a realistic possibility of a ring?  For trades, who else has cap space AND can offer an abundance of young talent at low salaries or even Euro talent that costs nothing in salaries or luxury tax right now when times are tough? 

Somewhere out there is a house KP is trying to buy.  Is Hedo the one he wants, or is he just being floated to cause some GM or other agent to panic, and say, "Portland is going to blow their cap space on Hedo, and then we're stuck"?

It might be that KP and Nate think Hedo will make us great.  This could all be misdirection.  A Turkoglu signing may just be the precursor to a trade which is even bigger.  We all should just enjoy the ride, because we don't know what they are really doing.  There are options within options, and those options have options. 

We don't really have a clue.