Learning how to win; and biding our time

by Visionary1 on Jul 17, 2009 11:56 PM PDT

We're young and talented in a very deep and experienced league. Enjoy our development, and be patient. Our time will come.

I was back in New England recently, and read a Boston Globe article that described how Danny Ainge, Doc Rivers, KG, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and the owner all - wait for it - flew to Rasheed's house! - and after a 3-hour meeting, got him to sign the deal. It struck me how different that approach was from the Blazers, flying Hedo (sans wife) out here. Now, I'm sure they flew him out on the private jet, and gave him a good tour. But without the wife, it ultimately didn't matter. Perhaps they should have gone to them. Now, I'm glad they didn't get Hedo, but I do hope the young Blazers management learned things that will help them land the next big fish (that we will REALLY need).

This led me to think about how many teams in the NBA have gotten substantially better this year. Boston now boasts 4 legit stars, plus double-double Rondo and the improving Perkins and Davis (7 very strong players), in essence to compete with the Cavs (Shaq and LeBron may be the most physically intimidating duo to ever play on the same NBA team) And I'm not even talking about this year's conference winner Orlando.. And then you look at the West, with LA adding Artest (although I think that'll backfire), Denver adding Ty Lawson, Dallas adding Shawn Marion, and San Antonio, adding the most talent I think of any team in the offseason, adding Richard Jefferson, and Antonio McDyess??, and stealing DeJuan Blair, who may make every team regret passing on him. Man, that's an awful lot of VERY good teams...

Which leads me to my conclusion. The Blazers have a GREAT and exciting but VERY YOUNG team. But we are playing in a league of Men. The odds of this incredibly young team going from bounced out in the first round to championship this year are astronomical. Fun to think about and root for, absolutely, but let's think with a rational long-term view here.

Kobe is going to aggressively defend his turf. San Antonio is primed for a challenge - THIS year. The Cavs and Boston will hopefully plan an amazing championship series. Big, physical, aggressive, defensive-focused, veteran teams, with 3 legitimate superstars and a great supporting cast, win most championships.

I love our Blazers, don't get me wrong. I hope we never trade most of them. But are our Blazers Physical, Aggressive Defensive and Veteran? Not yet. And our superstar barely cracks the top 10 of most league ratings, and our #2 is 50-ish, and our #3 is (supposed to be) Greg (our backup 5)? Can this roster win an NBA championship this year? Sure, if they gel, all the young guys improve leaps and bounds, other teams have lots of injuries, and we get lucky? Sure we can. I'll be rooting them on, as a fan, all year to do just that, and shock the world.

But the prudent thing, the rational thing, is to wait, learn how to win, and think long-term. I am fully confident that we can add a star to this team before the trade deadline. (And I don't mean an old star, either). But right now, we don't have a clue what position the right star should play!

So, there is NO REASON to make the move yet for the big veteran final piece of the puzzle for a championship. We're just not there yet. We have tremendous assets in cap space, at least one trade exception, and young, improving talent teams covet, most of whose value will increase over the year. Wait. If our best acquisition of the summer was Bill Bayno (returning coach who will transform Greg), I'm OK with that.

Becuase it will be very fun watching this group learn how to win. It's the journey! I think Greg will win the Most Improved Player award this year, and make the Defensive first team, and All Star team. I think Rudy will have an amazing year, and be a regular on plays of the week. Batum will put up more points, play awesome D, and keep growing. I hope Martell comes back and hits 45% 3's. BRoy, LA, Joel and Blake will be as solid as ever. Bayless will show signs, but still play like an inconsistent young kid. I think even our 2nd round picks will contribute. I fully expect us to be a fun, exciting team (during the wide open regular season).

But enjoy the ride. Wait. Let it bake. There are at least 6 NBA teams who will be better than us this year, but I don't think that will be true a year from now. Be patient. Enjoy. Peace. Out.

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I wish we flew Hedo on the private jet

but we most definitely didn’t.

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by BigCelPhone on Jul 18, 2009 12:17 AM PDT reply actions

We'll be a top three seed

We’ll have an easier playoff opponent, and will win the first round.

When we face a tougher opponent in the second round, we’ll have a team full of guys with the experience of both winning and losing a playoff series. We’ll be fine.

This team is a legit contender to make the WCF this year, and once there, you can always catch a break and make the Finals. LA caught a break this year when Yao went down. It would be no shock to see Portland in the Finals.

But you are right that there is no reason to be desperate. We don’t really know where our holes are, other than that we could use an upgrade at backup PF. We don’t know whether Bayless fills our hole at PG, or whether a healthy Martell or an improved Batum makes SF a strength rather than a weakness. The answers to those questions are likely to be pretty clear by the trade deadline. Whether a player to fill any remaining holes is available at that point remains to be seen, of course. But if KP waits to move until then, I can completely understand the logic of that.

We can wait. Half of Bedge will rant and rave, but the games will still sell out, and we’ll still be on pace for 60 wins at the trade deadline. We’ll lose one of four games, and every time we do, there will be three fanposts about the move KP could have made last summer or at the last trade deadline that would have prevented the loss. But we’ll still be on pace for 60 wins (or more) when we hit February.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Jul 18, 2009 12:28 AM PDT reply actions

Bingo

by rburg on Jul 18, 2009 9:09 AM PDT reply actions

there are 6 very strong teams

but we are one of them not on the outside of them, but among them. There really was only one team that I hated matching up with in the playoffs and that was Houston really nobody else was as bad for us as them. I was reallyt hoping that would of been WCF match not a first rounder.

by prof.mike on Jul 18, 2009 11:47 AM PDT reply actions

i agree i guess

but in all actuality hedo wasnt coming here to begin with .. he used us so boo his butt when he comes to town.. and there is not a player in the world that we could pick up to win the championship next year.. not even kobe or labron..its a mixture of chemistry, luck (no major injuries) and skill..we are still two years out in my humble opinion

if it can be conceived it can be achieved

by lyfefindsaway on Jul 18, 2009 6:46 PM PDT reply actions