On a warm summers evenin on a train bound for nowhere,
I met up with the gambler; we were both too tired to sleep.
So we took turns a starin out the window at the darkness
til boredom overtook us, and he began to speak.

He said, son, Ive made a life out of readin peoples faces,
And knowin what their cards were by the way they held their eyes.
So if you dont mind my sayin, I can see youre out of aces.
For a taste of your whiskey Ill give you some advice.

So I handed him my bottle and he drank down my last swallow.
Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light.
And the night got deathly quiet, and his face lost all expression.
Said, if youre gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
Therell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.

Now evry gambler knows that the secret to survivin
Is knowin what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
cause evry hands a winner and evry hands a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep.

So when hed finished speakin, he turned back towards the window,
Crushed out his cigarette and faded off to sleep.
And somewhere in the darkness the gambler, he broke even.
But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep.

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
Therell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count you r money when youre sittin at the table.
Therell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.

in a very conservative fashion, I must disagree with your premise. You don’t have to take big risks to get big rewards, you simply have to play differently than your opponents. If you are at a table full of risk takers, it pays to be very conservative.

So I guess the question is, how are the other GM’s playing their cards?

It has worked out well for me. Sure I will limp in with a lesser hand but I only push the beasts… unless I have position and want to buy a pot.

you don’t win by making speculative gambles.

If we’re playing poker, take your risks if you want. If we’re investing, make your risks be carefully calculated.

KP’s risky moves:
1. Dumping Zach and drafting Oden. We could have had an LMA/Zach/Durant/Roy/Blake or Jack lineup. This would probably have won 50 games the first year, because Durant was much more polished than Oden. KP took the risk of drafting Oden and dumping Zach, because that lineup would probably have never won a championship.
2. Trading up to get Nic. This cost us a very high second round pick, which could have been a solid role player or a stashed Euro.
3. Drafting Rudy.
4. Trading Jarrett to move up only two spots in the draft.
etc.

These moves all carried varying measures of risk. KP is not risk averse. He obviously looks to assess the risk and looks for a low risk to reward ratio. The only really high risk move was the Zach trade/Oden draft, and that risk was mitigated by the fact that Zach was an idiot on and off the court.

None of us can really tell how risk averse KP is, because we don’t know what deals he has turned down. We know about the rumors, but we don’t know what has been on the table, really. We can only guess at how risk averse he is by assessing the deals he has made. That tells me he is cautious, but not fearful.

KP was a big Sergio fan, and just traded away a guy that he probably still thinks has a chance to be very successful. There was some risk in trading him away, especially since it leaves us with a very green Bayless as our backup PG. But he clearly decided that even if Sergio does find success, it was time to make this move. There was some risk in doing so — not a really large risk, but still some.

they don’t really fit tbh. if you’re a long term poker player who makes his living off his game, you’re rarely going to take “big risks”. there are certain styles that are more volatile than others, but your overall goal is to maximize your expected returns.

some of the most profitable players in the game are “grinders”, those who grind a narrow advantage over long periods of time for consistent profit. they don’t take big risks, they make the smart, proven path, and they win with a startling degree of regularity.

obviously the nba is different. there isn’t that “long-term picture” where you can sit around and pick your spots. so my point is, the analogy sucks. no offense op.

According to my inside NBA sources.

i think it sums up well pritchard’s problems. he’s constantly looking for “gasol” deals – ones that are so obviously in your favor that no one wouldn’t make them. he now has acquired pieces and needs to trade some of them to improve the team and he’s failing.

i believe that this past trade deadline was the time to make a move given how weak the FA class was going to be. he still has time to make up for that but i just don’t think he will because he has far too many “untouchables” amongst his players.

i believe he won’t trade bayless / rudy or batum right now which are the 3 that other teams would actually have interest in. the other guy he should be trying to swing a deal with is przybilla but i suspect he considers him untradeable as well.

frye is another guy that should have been dealt after he posted great numbers at the end of the 08’ season. his value was at its peak and it should have been obvious with przybilla / oden & aldridge in the mix that he was not going to see time. pritchard’s over-attachment to young talent is hard to argue against.

i think he believes that someone is going to take spare parts ( outlaw / webster / blake ) and give him something great in return. since that’s been rebuffed he’s been unable to make a deal work.