Why Utah might let Millsap go
Like most people, I'm still leaning towards the Jazz matching Portland's offer on Millsap. That being said, I wanted to present a (kind of weak) case as to why the Jazz might choose to let Millsap go. Plus, I'm bored.
1. If they wanted to sign Millsap, they would have formally announced it already - you can understand why they would wait to actually sign Millsap considering the cash signing bonus, but why haven't they at least announced it already? By dawdling, they aren't exactly sending a message that says "We value you. We know you were underpaid for the past two years. You are an important part of our future. We will match the offer on Friday. Now go start house hunting." Instead the message is "We're mad at you and we don't think you are worth your contract, but we're going to keep you for the next four years. Here's $10 million in cash, you jerk. We hope Sloan runs you into the ground."
2. They can't unload Boozer's contract in a way that reduces their cap hit - it sounds like OKC and Portland are the only teams that can provide cap relief and neither sounds like they are budging right now. So if they match the offer on Millsap, not only are they up the creek salary-wise, but they are overstocked at the four. So why bother matching and taking a $20m hit this year on a backup four when you currently have a similarly-skilled, better, and hungrier (it is his contract year, remember) option at the four already?
3. Boozer's expiring contract is more easily dealt without the complications of figuring out cap relief - If they let Millsap go and keep Boozer, their cap hit will be relatively minor and you can argue that they will be nearly as good of a team provided he stays healthy (which again is likely since it's his contract year). They can keep him, ride him out for the year, and then see what they do to fill his space more cheaply during the freeagentpalooza/summer of LeBron (they will be well under the cap next summer IIRC, and my guess is that plenty of 2nd tier FA's will be desperate and left hanging). Or they can take their time and parlay Boozer's contract into another asset (presumably something as good or better than Millsap) or assets this summer or during the season. They could also pick up someone else like Big Baby to fill Millsap's roster spot for much less money (more efficient use of funds for a backup four).
The bottom line is that if they don't match Millsap's offer sheet, they are still a very good team with a lot of options and less pressure to reduce salaries (something many teams will already be desperate to do this season, so it's probably not a good idea to join that group right now). Yeah, keeping Millsap would be great but it's not like Utah would be hurting without him. Unlike the Blazers, they have a plethora of tough players and savvy vets, so it may not be worth the $20m cash hit it will take to retain Millsap.
One last tidbit - I know that Boozer is claiming that he will be traded in the latest media reports, but this does not automatically equate to them matching Millsap's offer sheet. If they have to take back contracts for Boozer, trading him does nothing for them cap-wise if they re-sign Millsap.
1 recs |
37 comments
Comments
Forgot to mention
Sean May, Ben Wallace, etc. - their are decent/good enough backup 4/5 options emerging besides Big Baby, so maybe Utah tries to pick up one of them on the cheap and then start shopping Boozer’s contract from there.
Or not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I&feature=channel_page
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jul 14, 2009 11:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The reason they haven't matched
is because they don’t have to until Friday. It isn’t about some stupid ‘house hunting’ message to Milsap, it’s about business.
by fat27 on Jul 15, 2009 1:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
it also messes with the blazers
added bonus.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
by ratbastird on Jul 15, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please
It doesnt mess with the Blazers. KP knew that they would wait the full week to decide. Standard potocal.
If the Jazz were at all concerned about making sure Milsap felt valued, they would have made him an offer to begin with.
by TrailBlazer4Life on Jul 15, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
they won't incur the luxury tax hit
until later in the year i believe. so they have until the trade deadline to unload boozer and it will likely be easier to do so at that time. they also are reported to have a trade exception so they can take money off the books if they involve a 3rd team.
i would be shocked if they didn’t match.
by colinmarsh on Jul 15, 2009 2:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Luxury tax hit doesn't come until after the trade deadline
So yeah, you are right on that.
The problem is that KP loaded the early payment in a way that will be tough for them to handle.
by dprodigy19 on Jul 15, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec
Hilarious. And a lot more insightful than you are getting credit for.
Maybe KP is just trying to get Millsap and the rest of the Jazz team and management’s heads to explode? Or maybe I’m just bored, too.
by LaoTzu on Jul 15, 2009 2:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why can't Utah trade Boozer to Moskva United for a crate of Stolichnaya vodka?
by LaoTzu on Jul 15, 2009 2:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They could
But it wouldn’t get him off the cap.
by dprodigy19 on Jul 15, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but at least they could turn in the vodka bottles
for a deposit
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 15, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another alternative is just Boozer for Lee
One possibility is that Utah lets Milsap go and they do a trade with New York for Lee. If you could get similar terms on Lee that Milsap is getting, Utah would be dumping Boozer and swapping out Milsap for Lee.
Now I think Milsap is better than Lee. Plus he knows the system, the players, etc. Not sure why Utah would do this, but it is possible.
by oregontrail on Jul 15, 2009 7:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why would they do it?
Because they would have a very good PF without a big up front payment and huge luxury tax hit.
All they want is one superb PF, and they are willing to pay one relatively high salary for it. They would be very happy for that to be Millsap if they could dump Boozer’s contract. But if the way they find to dump Boozer’s contract is to have a sign and trade with NY for Lee, then they let Millsap walk and are where they want to be.
Seems a reasonable option to me, though they might not consider Lee to be worth enough salary to match Boozer’s.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Generally agree
Key for Utah is how marketable is Boozer. If they think they can get a lop-sided trade in somehow, they will just hold onto Milsap. The drama around guys like Odom doesn’t help. A trade with New York and Portland for Lee is plausible. But if they get concerned our next target is Odom they may start worry they don’t have anyone who will provide cap relief.
If they did a deal for Lee I would assume his salary would be 80% of Boozer’s. Or less than that and New York throws in another scrap. Deal works if that is the case.
by oregontrail on Jul 15, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on all points
Although Odom probably isn’t much of a factor, everyone still mostly expects him to end up in LA.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of recent Bucher tweets
Color me wrong on LO: I don’t think they’re going to figure it out. LO asks “please let me have 3 yrs/27m” or Lakers are moving on…I would expect this: LO back to LAL or not will be decided in next 24 hours.
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 15, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Millsap = Lee = Boozer
They all three have slightly different strengths which would fill in their teams needs differently. None, however is vastly better than the others. Boozer certainly has been more of a scorer in the past than the other two.
Boozer = Offense, excellent shooter, suspect defense
Lee= Offense, playmaker, suspect defense
Millsap= Defender, rebounder, not a great shooter, gets to the rim, however
Millsap fills our needs well, while Lee and Boozer seem to be more suited to Utah/ NY. I would love to keep Millsap, if possible.
by 3pointer on Jul 15, 2009 8:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't suspect Lee of defense
I’m sure he’s innocent of every playing it.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
as far as Portland is concerned
Millsap>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Lee>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Boozer
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 15, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody is going to make a serious offer for Boozer until tomorrow night
Everyone knows that Utah is desperate to move him, so nobody wants to offer much of anything. By tomorrow night, or Friday, anyone that actually wants him will know that the time is getting short and they have to make their final, real offer.
I’m sure the Blazers are talking to a few people (NJ, Phoenix, Minn, Chicago) about potential deals involving our cap space.
All that glitters isn't chrome
by hoopla-pdx on Jul 15, 2009 9:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Possibly
first off Utah has been reportedly looking for a loan and if anyone has tried getting a loan from the bank it is not generally a quicky.
I do think that Utah is better off not matching him. (spoken like a true blazer fan) but really if they match, they HAVE to move boozer before the deadline. that puts them in a difficult spot having other teams know that they are desperate. Plus other teams arent just going to get cap space out of thin air. any deal with boozer is going to have to go through us or OKC in some way.
They would be better if they let Paul go and then hunt next off season for a markee name. if they can drop Boozer, Okur and possibly AK-47 (who i thought was a restricted FA next year) that would be about $25 million in salary that they could work with in one of the biggest free agent markets ever, they could almost sign two max deals. could get Bosh and D-Wade. Just a thought.
If they opt to keep Millsap it actually hurts them more. they are FORCED to get rid of one of their very good PF and then still have much less cap relief for the next off-season. although as a think about it they still could end up with about $18 million next year with Millsap by losing AK and Okur.
Huh…interesting situation.
by SuperFan #7 on Jul 15, 2009 9:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They can't
They renewed Okur for two years, so they are stuck with his contract. And nobody is taking AK off their hands.
They are going to have those salaries on the books next summer. They won’t be major FA players next year.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
was just going to make that point
They extended Okur. I don’t think he is going anywhere. Not sure who would want AK at that money (maybe at the Feb deadline in 2011). Utah will be over the cap come this time next year.
But superfan’s reasoning makes sense re: Boozer. Which is why they may pass on Milsap. Getting cap relief will not be easy given any trade has to involve either us or OKC.
That loan isn’t an issue either. Getting a loan when you are a billionaire is a little easier than getting a second mortgage for joe sixpack. Plus the NBA has a line of credit for all teams.
by oregontrail on Jul 15, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they don’t sign Millsap, keep Boozer, and let him play out his contract (could be a positive since he’s essentially playing for a new contract), then the Jazz would have cap space next summer, somewhere around 10m-ish IIRC.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I&feature=channel_page
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jul 15, 2009 1:10 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
my math
I come up with 48.5M in salary for just 5 players. AK, DWill, Okur, CJ Miles and Maynor. Puts them about about 5.5M million below the high end of the projected cap for next year.
by oregontrail on Jul 15, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds about right
They might have a little space, but not a lot.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Slight rebuttlal.
1.) The Jazz benefit from making the Blazers wait as long as possible before they announce if they’ll match the offer. In the meantime, Portland’s cap space is essentially frozen, preventing them from locking in other deals.
2.) They have until the trade deadline to make a deal. Despite what “rumors” say, teams will make decisions that are in their OWN best interest. If OKC is presented with a deal that they like, you can bet they’ll help out the Jazz to get it done. Likewise for Portland.
3.) Both sides (Boozer and the Jazz) have already made several claims as to wanting to end their relationship.
by Arby on Jul 15, 2009 10:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The problem is the small # of teams
Since the Jazz would be looking to cut salary, they would either need to deal with a team that has space (the two teams you mentioned) or get non-guaranteed guys.
There are guys around like Bowen, but as players like Ben Wallace and Fabricio Oberto are bought out or cut, the pool of teams/players that can make the deal gets shallower and shallower, which kills the Jazz in terms of negotiating power.
by dprodigy19 on Jul 15, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When is the cutoff for Utah to Match?
Is it friday, or saturday? And what time?
by TrailBlazer4Life on Jul 15, 2009 11:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
they are waiting as long as they can so that the blazers cant do anything until Milsap is resigned.
they are also waiting because they are trying to see the likelihood of being able to trade boozer
by robi s on Jul 15, 2009 2:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They might also still be arranging the financing
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some numbers to chew on when considering a match by Utah
I took a look at Forbes’ numbers again from 2007-08. According to their data, Utah had revenue of $119 million in 2007-08 and an operating income of $8.8 million. They had about $58.9 million in player salaries to pay, no luxury tax and (an assumed figure) of $51.3 in non-player-salary expenses.
So let’s extrapolate to 2009-10. Let’s assume that they keep Boozer for the entire year and match the offer sheet to Millsap. Where do they figure to be financially?
Let’s start by assuming their revenue is exactly that same. Well, not exactly – they’ll lose $3 million by being over the luxury tax (that’s an assumed amount that will go out to teams next summer who are over the tax threshold). So they’re at $116 million in revenue.
Let’s also assume that non-player-salary expenses stay at that $51.3 million figure. So $116 minus $51.3 leaves $64.7 million. But we have to subtract $81.5 million in salary and $11.5 million in luxury tax. Leaving them with an operating loss of <$28.3 million>.
If they match for Millsap, that’s what they’re looking at. If they want to trade Boozer for comparable talent (and salary), they’re probably still looking at a <$23 million> loss if the other team is above the cap, since the other team would have to send back about $10 million in order to fit Boozer’s salary.
This is why I believe that although they want to match for Millsap, they won’t. Waiting for some magical team with $13 million in cap room to come out of the blue in February to take Boozer off their hands is completely unrealistic.
Now they might trade Boozer for some salary and some relief which could bring the loss down $10 million or so. But I think they’ll be stuck with an 8 figure deficit for the year if they match Millsap.
by Storyteller on Jul 15, 2009 3:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Error
3rd paragraph should read “to teams next summer who are UNDER the tax threshold”
by Storyteller on Jul 15, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post
The more I think about this, the more likely I think it is that we get Milsap.
Lot of people are dismissing rumors for Boozer to Miami, New York or Chicago because they don’t have cap room (like Hollinger for example). Everyone is just assuming Utah matches. But all those rumors make sense if Milsap is gone.
If I could put money on the Boozer/NY, Lee/Utah, Milsap/Portland trifecta I would do it. Bet I could get some pretty sweet odds.
by oregontrail on Jul 15, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for clarifying what I was trying to say...
… and adding in the expenses to boot.
With Millsap they are way over the cap without being markedly better.
Without Millsap they are only a little bit over the cap.
Either way, they’ll have great options to trade Boozer for talent, but few if any options to trade Boozer for salary/luxury tax relief.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I&feature=channel_page
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jul 15, 2009 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Besides OKC and Portland
The only other team that could help Utah are the Bucks, they’ve got 5 mil$ (combined) in unguaranteed contracts in Bruce Bowen and Salim Stoudamire
but Carlos Boozer in Milwaukee? Yecch…
Maybe if Portland can pry Devin Harris away from NJ, the Nets may be far enough “under” the cap to take on Boozer’s expiring contract…but Portland has already said they’re not going to directly help the Jazz find CB a new home
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 15, 2009 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but I don't think Bowen can be dealt again
for about 5 more weeks (60 days after the Jefferson deal, which was right before draft night)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Jul 15, 2009 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
rumored boozer deal
rumored deal with Miami and Memphis that would move Boozer and save them about 5.5M in cap space.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-odomboozer071509&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
If they are picking up at Haslem, not sure what that would mean for Milsap. But maybe that’s enough savings for Utah to bite the bullet and match our offer.
by oregontrail on Jul 15, 2009 8:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

by 

























