Underrating Seniors A.K.A. Cunningham falls to 33

by Jiggamant on Jul 14, 2009 1:30 PM PDT

One trend in the NBA drafting process that has troubled me over the last 4-5 drafts is the tendency of
NBA teams to draft unproven, young players on the assumption that due to these player's youth they have a higher potential ceiling than a player who spent all 4 years in college. Brandon Roy should have been the #1 pick in the 2006 draft (thank God he wasn't), but since he was older than Barngani, Aldridge, Foye and Morrison, we were led to believe that his maximum growth potential as an NBA player would be stunted in comparison because of his age.

I think a this drafting folly is perfectly exemplified by Dante Cunninghams projected draft position as well as his actualized draft position. Here are his point totals from year to year: 2.2/8.7/10.4/16.1. It should be noted that he played essentially the same amount of minutes between his junior and senior season while increasing his point output by 6 per game. These numbers indicate that Dante's skills are rising at an upward trajectory, suggesting that his ceiling is not limited by his chronological handicap. As we saw from last nights game (I know, I know. Take summer league games worth a grain of salt) Dante brings three crucial elements to the game: skilled midrange shooting, the ability to move without the ball, hustle (defense, O rebounding). These three particular attributes are usually not associated with one-and-doners.

One final point. Always side with success. Cunningham led an overmatched team to the final four. When in doubt draft a winner.

For the sake of brevity, the essential point of this post is thus: Dante Cunningham was a steal at 33. I expect him to be a valuable asset off the bench for years to come.

Edit: I didn't have nearly enough time to fully flesh out my point. I will either attach an addendum or create a new post on this topic shortly.

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Ha, another believer!

I’ve been telling people since the draft that Dante was a baller and he would surprise people in Summer League! He’s the man and I hope he continues to win everyone over!

by danielfarrell on Jul 14, 2009 1:35 PM PDT reply actions

I was bitterly disappointed we took him

Prove me wrong during the regular season when it really counts, Cunningham! Make the team and help us win rings.

Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically

by OhOhOden on Jul 14, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Ditto.

I still don’t think he’ll be better than Blair. I’ll be happy if he becomes a decent role player.

by austinpwnz on Jul 15, 2009 12:25 AM PDT up reply actions

good points

I think GMs are scared to be judged in hindsight if they pass on someone with great potential who ends up realizing it. I do tend to agree that guys who are proven tend to be judged as not likely to improve much (if at all), and it hurts their draft stock.

Another way to think about it, let’s say are considering between two players – one is a proven 4 year senior whose ceiling is projected to be an average NBA starter. The second guy is young and has a lot of the old “P” word. His ceiling is a potential all star, but he could also end up topping out as an 8th man or worse (think Telfair for example). Most GMs choose to swing for the fences with the hope of hitting a home run. No one will remember that they passed on the “solid starter” guy, so even if their young guy doesn’t pan out, it was viewed as a good risk to take. Conversely, if they pick the “sold starter”, and the potential guy hits his ceiling for another team, the GM is going to be reminded that he passed on “star player X” for a long time to come.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 14, 2009 1:38 PM PDT reply actions

I love the term chronological handicap

Yeah I am starting to think he might be a real value as #33 pick.

by southern oregon on Jul 14, 2009 1:39 PM PDT reply actions

My counter argument

People consider these 5 guys the best 5 in the NBA
Kobe- 0 years college
Lebron-0 years college
Dwight- 0 years college
CP3- 2 years college
Wade- 2 years college

None of these guys played more than 2 years, and Lebron/Dwight would have been easy 1 and doners. Kobe probably as well.

Outside of Duncan and Roy (that I can think of), none of the NBA’s premier players went to college for 4 years. Sure, you can get some solid players, but you won’t see 4 year guys going top 10 too often because the best players almost always leave after 1 or 2.

The Princess of Blazersedge

by Zaig on Jul 14, 2009 2:03 PM PDT reply actions

And only Roy

Really had to go four years to get drafted as highly. Duncan stayed even though he was likely #1 after his junior year.

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by skywaker9 on Jul 14, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah

If you are talking superstars, you are right. The guys that are going to be superstars are generally obvious superstars by their second year in college.

But you aren’t going to find superstars at #33, you hope you find a solid contributor. A four year player has a good chance of being that, especially sooner.

One of the evidences that KP thinks we can win now is he didn’t go for the long term gamble with those picks, he went for solid guys who might have a chance to contribute soon.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Jul 14, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Manu was a 2nd round pick

And that worked out ok for SA

by southern oregon on Jul 14, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions

That was before

Every team and their mother had euro scouts. Besides Gilbert and Michael Redd can’t find too many above average 2nd rounders.

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by Dheepan on Jul 14, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Manu is from South America!

The Princess of Blazersedge

by Zaig on Jul 14, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions

I know

But he played professionally in the Europe. Which is probably where the Spurs became interested in him,

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by Dheepan on Jul 14, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Millsap? Arenas? Jackson (Stephen)?

There have been a few.

by lee3022 on Jul 14, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah

But if your draft strategy is to look for superstars in the second round, you aren’t going to be really successful.

If you look for your big stars in the first round, and solid role players in the second round, that is a lot more likely to work out for you in the long run.

Millsap isn’t a superstar. Not sure you would call Jackson that, either. Arenas? Borderline.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions

Teams have mothers?

Learn something new every day.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Correct

But I think once you get past the 10-15 area you don’t see a bias against 4 year players anymore. This could be wrong, but it seems like once you get into the “role player” portion of the draft, teams are fine picking up anyone.

The Princess of Blazersedge

by Zaig on Jul 14, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Good observation

by lee3022 on Jul 14, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions

His position had more to do with him slipping.

If he put up the same numbers with decent range of perimeter skills it would have put him the first round. He played the pivot and while he did back out and hit shots he didn’t show much else on the perimeter and he didn’t get the chance to guard quicker players.

I still think he could be a steal. He played on a small talented team so it wasn’t his lack of game that put him in the pivot. I still dont see him as a defender yet because he didn’t face quick swingman. He does have the potential to become a defender which is why he should be put in the Dleague ASAP.

They should move him to the Dleague and request that he guards the best player on the other team as often as possible. Yep he could be a steal. Reminds me of Kersey.

by Kaanyr Vhok on Jul 14, 2009 2:54 PM PDT reply actions

WAAAAY TO EARLY TO SAY

We are making this call on him being a steal like 2 weeks after the draft, lets wait and see if he can play like that against ACTUAL NBA TALENT before we get ahead of ourselves and call him a steal (although for the record Ithink he was a great pick and will be able to play and contribute immediately)

And I can’t really call him a steal when 1st Team All-American DeJuan Blair was drafted 4 picks AFTER him…only time will tell I guess

by rip_city_swagger on Jul 14, 2009 3:20 PM PDT reply actions

Just for the record, Dante got the better of Blair in their head-to-head matchups.

by danielfarrell on Jul 14, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Three years at Marquette for Wade. 1st year he was Prop 48 but it still counts. He came out after his jr. year

by 8volumesthick on Jul 14, 2009 4:01 PM PDT reply actions

This gives me a good idea to make a new roster on NBA 2K9

All-Star ALL 4 years College team.

Any ideas besides Roy? I’ll have to hunt up some stats..

B.S. Liberal Studies OSU '06
Trade for Gerald Wallace!!

by TyboOSU on Jul 14, 2009 5:40 PM PDT reply actions

Article about 4 year NBA guys

http://new.m.yahoo.com/w/ysportshome/expertanalysisarticle?urn=urn%3Anewsml%3Asports.yahoo%2Crivals%3A20050301%3Ancaab%2Carticle%2Crivals-302763%3A1&expert=David+Fox&intl=us&lang=en&_ym=1

B.S. Liberal Studies OSU '06
Trade for Gerald Wallace!!

by TyboOSU on Jul 14, 2009 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions

one correction.

Cunningham led an overmatched team to the final four.

Scottie Reynolds led that team to the final four (they wouldn’t have advanced if he didn’t hit that game winning layup against Pitt).

"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"

-Ron Artest

by premthegrem on Jul 14, 2009 6:08 PM PDT reply actions

Dante

Loved watching him at Villanova & their run in the tourney. Its all depending on attitude. He could be Dennis Rodman or Pete Mickeal, depending on ATTITUDE.

Patience :)

by TheGreatDane17 on Jul 14, 2009 6:29 PM PDT reply actions

Or George Lynch. Cunningham is not as athletic as Rodman, who was also unique in anticipating rebounds.

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by Norsktroll on Jul 15, 2009 2:08 AM PDT up reply actions

Mmm. . .

Roy didn’t slip because of his age.

by Foofighting101 on Jul 14, 2009 7:46 PM PDT reply actions

correct

he slipped due to the fact there were concerns about his knees/ankles leading up to the draft.

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by lefty6283 on Jul 14, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Injuries were a concern...

but all some people could counter with when someone would talk about drafting Roy was, “He is already at his ceiling.” People said that after his first and second years in the NBA also. Many may think it now. His being a four year college player had a lot to do with that perception.

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by tssbro on Jul 14, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Any one who graduates from college is stupid

Oh wait,let me check on that

by southern oregon on Jul 14, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions

yep

leading up to the draft, Roy was constantly tagged “the most NBA ready player in the draft”, but the downside was always “he is what he is, he’s not really going to improve much beyond where he is”.

It seems the pundits were correct on the first part, but missed the mark on the 2nd one.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jul 15, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions