…after his current contract is up. We could probably sign him at the veteran’s minimum and he, even as he gets older, will still provide toughness and hustle. Unless he goes in a trade for an elite PG before his current contract is up, of course.

Blake is solid at most aspects of his position and is not very expensive given his competence. Pryzbilla costs a little more but is equally as capable for his position. Apparently both like living here so hopefully they’ll prefer to play here rather than elsewhere if the money is similar. However, I could see Joel getting offered decent money that we might not match after his current contract is up.

Batum is certainly a bargain now. Eventually I could see him being the semi-expensive guy – but not superstar expensive – and we hold on to him for his importance on the team. Hopefully we’ll be able to keep him.

I’d like to lobby for Martell but if he really breaks out then we might not be able to afford him anymore, or at least not both him and Batum.

1. Batum
2. Martell
3. Joel
4. Rudy
5. Bayless

Rudy and Batum are both incredible values by adj. +/-. Gotta keep them, they’re pieces 4 and 5 of the core.

At the moment I would go with:

1. Nic. Low price now. If the Blazers can retain him after this contract for around what it cost this year to get Ariza (MLE or slightly above), that could turn out to be great value. He fills a need.

2. Rudy. Extremely low price compared to what he could have earned in Europe thanks to his low draft position. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to trade him now, his performance and thus his value on the market will only go up and his cost almost doesn’t. No matter how many minutes he plays.

3. Travis An instant scoring threat off the bench and Sixth Man of the Year candidate for his current price and likely around $5.x million a la Martell on a next deal is very good value. Actual award winner Jason Terry e.g. costs twice that. If he is of lesser value to the Blazers in the future, he would still have good value on the trade market. Smart teams (and cheap teams) love players with good game for their contracts.

4. Steve. Very modestly paid for a starting point guard, and would even be okay for a backup. He should get a bit more on his next deal, but since very few teams will want to make him their starter next year the Blazers should be able to retain him for something < MLE should they choose to do so.

5. Jerryd. Highly depends on how he will pan out. Right now he is decently paid and it’s impossible to say how his next contract will look like. With Jarrett Jack now commanding $5 million per year, having Bayless instead looks like better value already. The Blazers have a bit of the same problem with Oden. How much you offer for him next summer (to not let him come to free agency) highly depends on what he does next season. Maybe in his case they risk actually waiting until free agency to really see what he commands on the market.

6. Joel. Currently fairly priced, but it’s on the top of the active roster. Likely more value to us than to most other teams. Don’t know if he could command the $10 million paid these days for good big men on the market if he opts out. At that cost his price would become pretty steep.

7. Martell (incomplete). Another one where it is hard to say right now. His contract is manageable in terms of length and fair in amount, and would be very good value if he actually would start for the team or be the first backup. If he is just rehabbing in between short stints or used exclusively as a standstill corner shooter when other players aren’t hitting, the contract is bad. Could be as high as #3 in terms of value, could be much less.

Pendergraph and Cunningham if they get their contracts seem like fairly valued for a 2nd round pick, but impossible to say yet. Also hard to say if an injured Mills will get a contract at all. Maybe a 1 year minimum with a team option for another year. Millsap for the offered price would be very good value albeit not very cheap.

Incredibly bad value: Darius Miles playing spot minutes on opposing rosters and celebrity charity games while costing $9 million, and not being tradeable as an expiring contract. In hindsight the Blazers should just have sent him home to rehab with pay to potentially use him at the next deadline.

Good value additions on the open market:

• Ramon Sessions, doesn’t seem to get offers even at mid-level exception range. He is definitely worth that.
• My favorite wing-defender low price high value pick Q. Ross was picked up by the Mavs, so maybe go with an athletic wingman from the DL there if the Blazers see a need for another 2/3 player at the end of the roster. If no more trades come, there probably is no real need.

They are the very essence of value – realized or future performance per dollar, bang for the buck.

Rudy has more current value. He played more minutes, scored more points, shot a higher percentage. He has a high BBIQ, good court vision. and potentially can be an excellent creator for others, but he just found out what the NBA requires in terms of defense and versatility on offense. Now that he knows can he adapt and develop those parts of his game that weren’t NBA ready? That’s the question that will be answered this year and probably the following year. If he shows significant improvement this year on defense and shot creation with a mid-range jump shot, his value skyrockets. We will have to be more creative to find him minutes and ultimately his trade value and non-optimum fit could make it impossible for us to keep him. However, if his offensive skills are limited to long distance shooting, then his value will plateau this year and ironically we should then be able to keep him as our off-the-bench sharpshooter.

Nic has less value than Rudy now, but that could change by the end of the year. It will depend on Nic, our ability to secure an experienced starting SF, and what happens with Martell. With Roy playing some SF to make minutes for Rudy there aren’t a lot minutes left for Nic if we pick up a starting SF. But if he gets minutes, I’ll bet he progresses quickly. So much depends on what we finally get for our cap space plus Outlaw.

Outlaw simply has to go to provide more minutes than last year to develop Rudy and Nic, and also to develop more flow in our offense. Unfortunately, I don’t think he has the trade value that many people assume. I recall Mike and Mike commenting last Feb that there was very little interest in him at the trade deadline.

We have players that can play D, but doesn’t produce O. and visa versa. IMO, we will have to find players or train players to have both skills.

For example, Joel is mainly a defensive threat. With a different type Offense and passing guards, can he become a offensive threat?

In addition, we could retain players off the bench that could play two or three positions, plays both defense and offense. Maybe Pendergraph and Cunningham could fill those needs. Of course Millsap, but the general consensus is that we won’t get him.

Everybody has entertained the thought that Batuum will develop his offense to go with his D. If so he is a keeper.

Martell was working on his D if so he is a keeper.

Travis will always be Travis, but he will be affordable and can be a good utility man.

Rudy can play varies positions and can play adequate D. he is a keeper already.

Steve is not great at Offense or Defense, but he is affordable, has more value to the team than maybe elite pg could bring. IMO he is a keeper.

School is still out on JB. He doesn’t do defense or Offense yet to warrant a vote.

Joel is our warrior; if he doesn’t demand higher pay than he is a keeper. If not, he would have to go.

My keepers besides the big three are:

Joel,
Cunningham can play 3,4,5
Batuum and Webster,
Rudy, He can play 1,2,3.
Steve, he will be affordable
Travis for a utility player

In actuality I think it is way too early to pick many because of development. Even Greg and LMA is still a question mark.

hg

I really don’t think PA bought this team to “break even”. I think after years of the Vulcan and past Blazer mgmnt playing SPAM, they are just trying to CTOA (cover their own ass), by acting like they are now protecting his money.
PA wants the fun of WINNING!….and I’ll bet he knows he will have to pay for it.

I can see a possible $$$ decision coming if Utah doesn’t resign Millsap and we keep him.

LaMarcus Aldridge for:
                         2009-10…….2010-11…..2011-12…..2012-13
Devin Harris 8,400,000…8,981,000…9,319,000…8,500,000

Bayless’s lack of PG skills are being exposed in Vegas and Blake would back up Harris nicely.

Scottie Pippen….Batum isn’t going anywhere….

Batum (No Brainer)
Rudy
Webster (Sleeper)
Bayless
Joel
Blake
Outlaw

What’s with this story?

http://dimemag.com/2009/02/nba-trade-rumor-amare-stoudemire-for-lamarcus-aldridge/

Ben or Dave should write something. ;)

Er, sorry. Old story. But a friend at work is mentioning something about talks between Amare’s camp and LA’s camp heating up again? (Doing some more looking at the Suns’ camp)

Even Batum looks like he could blossom into a big contract guy if he adds some offense.

Rudy could have value if he accepts a super-sub roll without demanding a near-max contract.

If Rex doesn’t develop into the answer at point (I hope this is not the case) his only possible value would be a microwave type player providing instant offense off the bench.

Steve personifies value. You’re getting what you pay for, but not paying Hinrich money.

Joel personified value, and unless he excepts a midlevel won’t be in the future.

If Trav can be picked up for 5 years and 30 mil, or there abouts, he would have tremendous trade value. Or, continue to score a ton off the bench.

On a sidenote to some of the Martell sleeper talk. I’m on-board. Rudy and Martell played really well off each other last pre-season. With Rudy’s ability to pass and shoot, Martell’s to shoot and attack and Jerryd on a mission to prove he can play a true point… That’s a fun 2nd unit.

All of these points become mute should a player develop the value of being awesome.

The best future FA value is LeBron.

Speaking of value, why aren’t the Blazers interested in Lamar Odom? It seems the Mavs have woken up and realized the Lakers are only offering 8, right? We offered Turk 10. Surely Odom has to be worth 2-3 years for 10, right? Hmm. If nothing else, wouldn’t it cripple the Lakers? Even with Artest, losing Odom and Ariza both is a pretty big deal for their front court. Word on the street is, the Lakers may even settle on the MLE if nobody else is shopping. Why aren’t we? Is he really that much worse of a fit than Turk was?

I believe Roy, Aldridge and Oden are the three core players that get the money and are untradeable.

That said I have this to say about the rest…

These first four have the most value and should be Blazers for at least the next two seasons.

Blake: Good value. He’ll never demand a large contract. He’s the perfect, reliable backup PG. He works well with Roy. He’s a great teammate and locker room guy. I say you keep him.

Batum: Versatile. Huge up side. Going into the second year of his rookie deal. Depending on how he develops; you have him for at least two more seasons to evaluate his progress, I say you keep him and make a decision about him later. He’s a great value.

Rudy: Offensive weapon. Good up side as well. Also going into second year of his rookie contract. I say give him a couple more years to develop. You may have to choose between he and Batum in the future if they both look like they will demand big contracts with their next deals. Until then, keep him and evaluate him.

Martell: He doesn’t have a big contract and following his injury, you need to see what he can bring back to the table. He is a great value, if he is healthy.

These final three players have less value.

Bayless: I’m just not seeing how he will fit. I still don’t see him as a point guard or a shooter. I truly believe that a more dynamic play making PG is needed for the Blazers, and Blake would serve as a great back up. Obviously, Bayless is a good value for now, but I think he is tradeable…I would consider moving him if you can to fill a need.

Pryzbilla: Who doesn’t want Joel on their team? But, I think he is probably our best trading chip. Besides, once his deal runs out, he will probably want a pay raise. If the Blazers don’t get Milsap, which I don;t think they will, then I say perhaps keep Joel for one more year, unless a good trade is available. I think his “enforcer” role should be transferred over to Aldridge and Oden anyways, and any leadership he provides should be Roy’s. I would hate to see Joel go. Also, if Cunningham and Pendergraph develop, regardless if they get Milsap or not, I say Joel should be traded for a need.

Outlaw: I think between Rudy, Martell and Batum, Outlaw’s offensive production can be covered. I don’t think he gives us much else. He is a good value, but he definitely is losing his place on this team and could very well be a good fit elsewhere, and he could facilitate a trade for a need.

Conclusion:

The Blazer need a point guard that can take some of the pressure off Roy as a play maker. They also need another scorer, who could come in the form of a play making PG or a SF. They also need some more toughness up front. Bayless, Pryzbilla and Outlaw are the most tradeable pieces.

but LaMarcus is the Lexus, Oden is the Mercedes and Roy is the classic Corvette.

For some reason I’m picturing Rudy as a Volkswagen bus.

then Batum then Rudy.

Rudy mostly because I’m not really sure what we have there, and his somewhat more global profile makes me wonder if he’ll want more money at some point than a lower key guy like Batum.

I still don’t really know what we have in Batum either, but he seems low-risk and he’s definitely got some tools.

I’m partial to Bayless, I like his balls-to-the-wall attitude and I have a feeling he’s going to be a star at some point, somewhere. Guys that are willing to go to the hole usually have a chance. Free throws are easy. He’ll learn how to play d evetually.

1) Any star/superstar would fall all over themselves at a chance to be on our championship team.
Several have snubbed the Blazers simply over the weather.

2) Paul Allen wil use his infinite wallet to pay everyone max contracts.

First of all I would like to say I do appreciate Paul Allen. I think he’s saved pro basketball in Oregon. Without his dedication and investment I’m not at all convinced we’d even be here today, and surely not in the same form we are today. So I’m not trashing Paul Allen at all.

However, he’s one of the few that I think frustrates people when you start talking about finances. To us down here, he’s rich, and not just rich, mythologically rich. Richie Rich comic book rich. City sized yachts with submarines onboard rich. You get the picture.

So when Vulcan comes out and starts talking about “Breaking Even”. When Dave posts about not picking a Cadillac Escalade as the utility vehicle….which is all 100% reasonable, logical and should be acceptable I think the tendency is to say, “Wait a minute, it’s Paul Allen, we CAN have a Cadillac Escalade as the utility vehicle!”.

Is this fair to Paul Allen, or the entities working for him saddled with the real demands of budget and financial success? No, not at all.

Is it “reasonable” for Paul Allen to request that his entertainment investment, which I feel The Blazers have been, work towards not costing him millions and millions of dollars per year? I mean evidently he’s not calling for a profit, he’s asking for a break even point. Sure, infact given the free spending history of The Blazers it’s wise.

But for fans, it’s always going to be a sore spot. To continue to hijack Daves analogy, we want The Lexus, The Mercedes and Corvette and then if you ask us what we want as a utility vehicle, we are probably going to say, meet me at the Porshe dealership. Why? because as fans we want the best. But also because Paul Allen comes with an attached mythology. The mythology of the fantastically wealthy. So fair or not, realistic or not, it’s going to be a hard sale to the fans if we perceive that we are losing an asset because of budget, reasonable or otherwise.

Case in point, these negotiations with Brandon. Which so far, IMO have simply been normal negotiations. The general reaction is “Give Brandon everything and the kitchen sink”. After all SPAM is so easy for us. Who care’s if playing hardball might save Paul Allen a few million? It would make US feel better if he just ripped open his checkbook and blindfolded himself. We want to feel good today. We don’t want to wait and have to worry so Write that Check!

If we were almost any other franchise, owned by any other entity not named either Allen or Cuban would we be so quick to say SPEND!???

We are in a global recession. Everything is changing, and rapidly. I think some change from Blazer fans is coming. We hear stories about the “old” days of Whittsit and Spending Paul Allens Money, we cringe when we hear quotes from Vulcan about breaking even…well admit it, at some level don’t we expect Paul Allen to save us? Don’t we expect him to spend what it takes? Well maybe those days are coming to an end. Maybe a higher budget standard is being imposed. Maybe when Pritchard came to the icing on the cake, he found out that the icing budget had been cut in half. We are going to have to deal with it as fans. It’s going to be a careful balance of keeping the team financially viable, entertainingly viable and heading in the direction of the goal of a championship but probably without opening the floodgates of Paul Allens monetary resources.

I’ll take a Subaru Forester, and let’s keep Batum and Rudy.

would not get along (would not produce) if they had to be together for 82 games+ year in and year out. It’s the too many chiefs and not enough Indians axiom. That’s why Dave is right not only for the current economy, but long-term as well. Role players and back-ups are so critical to the top 3 flourishing. We don’t really want or need stars on top of stars. Bad for economics, chemistry, production.

sorry to poke a hole in your analogy.