Seven Truths About Where the Blazers are Right Now
by hambone17 on Jul 12, 2009 10:03 PM PDT
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As stressful as it's been, I'm loving following all the twists and turns of the past couple of months and reading all of the great debate lately about the team's progress during this period (especially upper left corner's "Discussing Failure"). Apologies if this should just be a comment in that post, but it seemed to touch on too many others to put in the comments of one. If that doesn't cut it, hopefully the fact that this is my first post will get me a little slack . . .
What I have appreciated most in BE in the last few days has been the push to reject the worst-case-scenario hyperventilating about every minor daily shred of information. This scrutiny seems reasonable for the big picture, but not for every single brushstroke as it's being made. It's like standing over Picasso's shoulder telling him he's painting the nose on the wrong side of the face, rather than waiting to consider the finished product. I'm not saying "Pritchard's a genius who should never be questioned", just that I think we all benefit from keeping a little patience and perspective about where this is going to end up. Especially when the information that we (fans and media alike) are operating with is almost always cloudy, incomplete, and sometimes flat-out misleading or manipulative.
Regardless of your opinion on the success of each of this summer's brushstrokes so far, I think there are some things about that big picture that nearly all of us would agree on:
- Given our position, we came away with a nice, restrained (if unspectacular) haul of players in the draft that demonstrates a both a clear long-term strategy and the team's graduation from the rebuilding ranks.
- There remains a 100% chance we re-sign Roy, regardless of how the first days of a long-term process have gone. As Dave pointed out yesterday, the tougher approach the team has taken with Roy actually increases the odds of the team being able to also retain our other core players as the parade of contract extensions keep on coming the next couple of years. On this issue, the phrase "it's business" is quite literally true. The guys the team want to be here long-term and that want to be here themselves will be, regardless of the jockeying involved in the business negotiations it takes to make it happen.
- There has not been a single big-picture misfire yet (bad FA signing, bad trade, etc.) thanks, IMO, to Hedo bailing us out with his change of heart. The mark of good management is to adapt as the landscape evolves around you and keep moving forward without panicking, and this group appears to be doing that quite well.
- We can debate whether it was earned, but I think we'd all agree that the expectation we've gotten comfortable with for Pritchard have gotten a bit out of control. We simply were never going to turn Sergio into Steve Nash, get David Lee to be our 3rd string PF, etc. The days of catching other teams by surprise both on the court and in trade negotiations are behind us.
- After all that, the team has still shrewdly positioned itself very well to add a significant piece this week (Millsap or Hinrich).
- While it kills me to wait for it, if nothing does comes together this summer this team has put itself in EXCELLENT position with it's moves so far (Claver, Sergio, no FA signings) and the league economic outlook to steal a player at the deadline. As painful as it is to wait until then, the best opportunity we have to make the greatest improvement for the lowest cost is still to just continue to wait for that killer trade, and we're more set up for than ever.
- And finally, the character and trajectory of this team have been remarkably, almost comically altered in just a few short years. We are all extremely blessed that issues like "lottery" and "JailBlazers" have faded in the rearview mirror to the degree that we have the luxury of debating what LaMarcus had for breakfast. Should the team do nothing at all, this still remains the most promising, enjoyable, and respectable young squad in the league. Reasonable expectations going forward with exactly the team we have now are for us being 1-2 years a way from having a perennial 60-win team and title contender. I wouldn't have believed it a couple of years ago. And now? If the result of our "disappointing" offseason is that I get to have these 10 gentlemen represent my City and leave it all on the floor for the next several years and see where it gets us, I expect I'll be one happy Blazer fan.
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Re: # 4
And we have come a long, long, long ways since the days of John Nash & Bob Whitsitt. Thank God.
Rec'd
A bit of sanity along with upper left corner. The overreaction by so many commenters has been hilarious and bothersome at the same time. Thanks, Hambone.
The thing that concerns me re: the B-roy situation
is that management has absolutely no leverage whatsoever, and both parties know it. As far as I can tell, there is no value to posturing here. Roy earned a max money, max length extension in his 3 years here, and I just can’t imagine that the “hard line” image the blazers would get by haggling with roy will get them any significant benefit when negotiating extensions for our other players.
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
No disrespect intended
but when it comes to sports contract negotiations, I’m actually a little out of my depth (and I suspect I’m not alone). If you majored in sports law, please accept my sincerest apologies.
I don’t mean any disrespect either, but it doesn’t take a degree to know that 24-year-old 2nd team all NBA players get max contracts. Look at the contract Bargnani got; Roy’s market value is clearly max.
That doesn’t mean I think the Blazers are necessarily wrong in negotiating with Roy; there very well may be something LMA holding the situation up. But the team shouldn’t be haggling over money/years with Roy.
I only ask this
who, anywhere has said that Broy won’t get a max contract? Or, even for that matter, LMA? I listened to the Broy interview. He said not one word about not signing. 50/50, maybe for this week but alas, there are still many more weeks. I listened to media twisting it . I ALSO listened to KP the day before saying that Broy and LMA will be blazers for a long time. Don’t be so quick to jump off the ship. There is a lot going on right now with KP. Broy and LMA actually can wait a week or two or even 4 (arbitrary numbers). Let them get the outside pieces taken care of and i am sure as sure as that its done the rest will fall into place.
Does anyone remember LMA saying he want’s his extension to be taken care of by the end of August? We still have a lot of July left. Just him saying that he wants to take care of it this year speaks volumes to me about his intentions.
by Cory2669 on Jul 13, 2009 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
What bothers me about everyone saying Roy deserves a max contract, is the idea that he wants one
How about wanting to win? If Roy accepts a smaller deal the team can surround him with better players. He can look to recoup some of that last money through endorsement deals, which come much easier to teams in a dynasty. Maybe he wants the money, maybe he thinks it’s more important to have money than to win. At some level it would be, but in the size of salaries these players make, the difference becomes less relevant. I like to pretend that Roy wants the blazers to win as much as I do. Would I take a smaller contract, sure if it meant my work was more fun, and I had more control in the team. That defines leadership. Outside of sports, the economy takes a larger toll on the population. Most people could never dream of giving up a milion dollars, and many would actually be challenged to cut their spending more than 15%. In the realm of sports, a leader taking a deal for “only” 12 million a year, is a huge building block to a dynasty. If a player says, “no, I don’t care about dynasty, I want to get paid”, that is there right. But those players are people I will refuse to cheer for. I would be very saddened to hear from a reputable source that Roy was more concerned with getting a mass contract than being able to retain his friends on the team, and win a championship.
by lurtsman on Jul 14, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
While I agree in theory
That’s not how it works. NBA players play the game for a living. Sure they enjoy it, sure they say all the right things, but at the end of the day they view their contract as their financial future. Not just for the years they play, but beyond.
Roy will not accept under market value, nor should he. It’s not ALL about the money, but it is the number one thing, and justifiably so.
by TrailBlazer4Life on Jul 14, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
except..
for the case of one michael jordan, who i remember very specifically not taking a max contract so that the bulls could improve. now of course he finished his career with massive balloon payments, but he did not rape the team when he could have. i understand he also had massive money coming in from endorsements, but there is a precedent.
and if you can’t live comfortably on 14 mil, 16 or 17 is not going to make life any easier. this is a valid point lurtsman, one of i’ve always thought about..
http://basketballiluuminati.blogspot.com/
by blazersunited on Jul 14, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions
max contracts didn't exist
in Jordan’s time. They’re entirely a product of the post-lockout CBA.
But hey, only money grubbers would insist on a max contract. It’s obvious guys who have signed max contracts in their career care nothing about winning. I mean, obviously Kobe, KG, LeBron, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Dirk, Yao, and Wade are all just money grubbing mercenaries. Why else would they ever sign max deals? I wouldn’t want any of their “me first” attitudes on the Blazers.
Give me a break about guys taking less money so teams can retain their teammates. The NBA is set up so that teams can retain any talent they want. Maybe $15 million is a lot, but it’s nothing compared to Paul Allen’s bank roll. Why should Roy accept less than he can make just so Paul Allen can save some meaningless millions that he doesn’t need anyways?
Duncan signed a max deal when he was 25 or so
Just like Roy is about to. I don’t remember hearing any crying about how he didn’t want to win, then.
Nobody said Roy doesn't want to win
People are simply bringing up the FACT that if Roy/LMA and probably Oden each shaved 2 million of their salaries, another title piece could be added.
90 million dollars or 80 million dollars + 1 extra title. I’d easily go for the title here. (Naturally, an extra title is not guranteed here.)
I’m not gonna hold it against Roy if he just takes the max, it’s what most guys do. I’d think a lot more of Roy if he didn’t though.
The Princess of Blazersedge
Not you, but what I was responding to
How about wanting to win? If Roy accepts a smaller deal the team can surround him with better players. He can look to recoup some of that last money through endorsement deals, which come much easier to teams in a dynasty. Maybe he wants the money, maybe he thinks it’s more important to have money than to win.
That sure sounds a lot to me like suggesting that Roy cares more about money than winning. The point being, that by asking Roy to take a lesser deal, we’d essentially be asking him to pay roughly $2 million a year for a better chance to win, which there’s nothing stopping Paul Allen from just writing a larger check each year and accomplishing the same thing.
Why are we siding with billionaires over millionaires here? $2 million a year to Roy is a lot more of a big deal to him than $10 million a year Paul Allen would have to pay in extra salary and luxury tax or whatever.
Jordan already had been paid when he did that
Whenever I’ve heard about someone taking less it has been a vet. player who had already had big contracts. This is Roy’s first non-rookie deal.He should & will get max money.
He did it! Yes he did!
by We-B-Dunkin on Jul 16, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with what you say but at what point does a player who wants his team to win, even if it means a pay cut, step back and say, damn, I’m making 12mil a year for the next 5 years, I am rich (almost never for the most part, but it would be nice to see)? I think almost any sensible person could make 60 mil last a lifetime and their kids too for that matter. Most of us average people think 100k a year is pretty comfortable. If you could make that for 120 years in a row you would match that one year salary. So to me the argument of providing for your family is nonexistent and I cringe every time I hear a player in any sport making that kind of money say that. What exactly are they providing them with? Each kid needs a multimillion dollar yacht at age 5?
by Cory2669 on Jul 15, 2009 2:15 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
thank you
for putting this up. i remain steadfast that better days are coming and this summer is just a blip on the radar. this is a great and positive piece of writing that quells all of the doomsday people that continually spew negativity. thank you for this.
Is it possible...
if the Blazers don’t sign a FA ,to pay a protion of Roy’s salery up front this year to keep flexibility cap wise in the later years of Roy’s contract?
Rudy Tootie..... I just don't get it
Tweener
No, he is under a running contract and I haven't heard of the NBA changing those. But they could give him a signing bonus next year.
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
Yes
The team is fine. I should screenprint the posts these days and bring them out around April/May when we’re fighting for a 3 or 4 seed and go “Wow, look how silly all the overreacting was.”
Blazer Fan
Or a 2 seed
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
I occassionally feel like I'm in a minority after seeing a large portion ...
… of the fan comments here. But it is posts like this that remind me that I am not. Thanks.
hakkaa päälle !
Follow the recs
How many recs for this post?
How many recs for this?
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/7/12/946660/discussing-failure
Now, how many recs for this?
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/7/12/947221/quit-fartin-around-kp-we-need-a
You’re not in a minority.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 13, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I didn't read it
But I wanted it give it a rec for using the word “farting.”
"B Roy, ain't no basketball player really ever make me cry, makes me wanna meet you, touch your hand." tominhawaii
OK, I'm late to the game, but there are 40 recs and 22 comments
Sounds like there aren’t too many people who disagree with this position. Every time I hear about "BlahBlah should comment x number of times before they’re are allowed to make a fanpost, I’ll think of this. Nice job.
Weren’t we in ‘excellent position’ to make a trade at last year’s trade deadline, too?
How is 9mil in cap space so much better than a ‘golden ticket’ expiring contract?
Deadline ’09, no action. Draft, no action. Free Agency, no action – why are we assuming this mythical trade is going down? Recent history dictates otherwise.
It's = It Is
Its = Belongs to It
Trade deadline: 2010
You are correct we won’t have as good an expiring contract to give up. It doesn’t necessarily follow that no deal will happen. Lottery bound teams will, as usual, be somewhat desirous of dumping high contract players. But what I think will make next year’s trade deadling period so interesting is that teams will also want to dump players/contracts because of two additional factors: the salary cap/luxury cap will lower some more and the free agent crop will be highly desirable. This should make cherry picking a quality player quite possible. We will also know more, then, about how our players have performed during the first half of the year.
Free Agency no action?
Funny, I thought we tried to sign a FA and have signed another to an offer sheet.
Looks to me like KP is trying to use the cap space to improve the team. So maybe the things he’s tried haven’t gone down, that’s life. But “no action” isn’t the operative word here. I strongly suspect he was trying to work a deal with RLEC, too. The fact that nothing worked out proves nothing.
If Utah matches, he’ll keep trying to work a deal. Will it happen? There is no way of knowing for sure. But I highly doubt the cap space will go entirely unused.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Sorry..
but this is the third time I’ve encountered the steakless sizzle of our “bounty of resources”.
I hear what you’re saying and you’re right that we know he’s trying to make moves, but I simply won’t assume his “next big move” is going to come before the trade deadline, 2010. It’s been said to be a near certainty for months now and hasn’t happened and I see no reason for that to change then. Who’s to say the deals he’s “trying to work” won’t “go down” then, as well?
It's = It Is
Its = Belongs to It
I'm with you.
While the Blazers have a solid core, its concerning at KP inability close the deal,
and you have to wonder if the anything significant will get at the 2010 trade deal line.
Hopefully the team will continue improve, and it would be a moot point, but its going to be a hard pill
to swallow if Outlaw is still jacking bricks, Blake still not getting it to the hole, and the team not able to get a key rebound, in next years playoffs.
Who knows?
Anyone who says it is a certainty is wrong, of course. The fact is that almost no one else can take salary dumps now, which greatly increases the chances of it happening.
I suspect that if we hit the trade deadline and nothing has come up that helps us, KP will shrug and take on someone’s bad $7-8 million contract and get a future first round draft pick for his troubles.
I suspect he’d take Boozer right now if Utah would also throw in that 2010 NY pick. They almost certainly won’t do it. But someone else who is a mid-level team (late lottery or borderline Eastern playoff team) will probably want to clear some salary by the trade deadline, and consider it worth it to lose their 2011 first rounder. KP can buy out whoever we get back, and use the 2011 pick to grab another cheap role player — perhaps a developing center who can be third string for 2-3 years until Joel retires.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jul 15, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The trade goes down when/if it looks better than "stay the course"
The point is that this team doesn’t necessarily HAVE TO do something now. Waiting to spend the money wisely seems like a better approach than spending it for the sake of having spent it. Given the stage the team is at now, I’d argue the goal should be much more "don’t spend the money badly" than it should be "get the money spent now". So far we’ve avoided spending the money badly, and to me that makes the summer still a success so far, even if it’s not providing the excitement level we’d all been hoping for.
I actually do think the roster needs to be tightened up and there are some weaknesses to be addressed. But right now we still have the money to spend (and one of only 2 teams that do), the store is still open, and the sale prices might actually continue to get better as time goes on, so I’m all for having the patience to make sure we buy the right thing when we finally do. But if we don’t spend it on a trade or FA when the deadline rolls around, it’s quite possible that’s actually the best way to build what we all want most – a long-term contender made up of players we want to root for and have representing our City. If having passed on bringing in a Jefferson or Carter type player/contract now allows us to keep Oden, Batum, Rudy, Bayless etc. on this team three years from now, then that restraint may very well be the most successful approach of all.
question
If, in fact, the cap space remains through the trade dealine, can it still be used to make an unbalanced trade after the end of the season during draft time, but before July 1 (or whenever Roy’s and Aldridge"s contract extensions kick in)?
Well said!
We have a great team and I seem to remember KP saying at the beginning of the offseason and very recently that he’s not looking to make any major changes just some small tweaks. The players we knew would be gone are gone and now it’s just finding the right pieces to add. So Hedo didn’t work out, didn’t want him anyway … Hinrich doesn’t seem like that much of an upgrade over Steve so who cares? The rookies from last year will be great this year and Brandon and LMA’s contracts will be taken care of. There’s one player on the team still that I hope will be gone, but if he’s not, I’m ok with that too. I’m looking forward to next season and watching these guys do what they do best … win!
Thanks for posting this.
I was going to try to post something similar, but this is much better than what I probably would have come up with.
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