Quit Messin' Around KP, We Need a SuperStar!!
by ThaBlazerNater on Jul 12, 2009 9:13 PM PDT
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Are we trying to win a Championship or just be a perennial playoff team? Pardon my confusion, but with KP chasing names like Torkoglu, Hinrich, and Milsap, I can’t really tell any more. These players might make the Blazers better (and I emphasize "might" in their cases), but they are NOT going to put us over the top. The Blazers have been on a meteoric rise and reached the playoffs last year, both commendable accomplishments, but let’s not forget that they were bounced in the 1st round. We still have a LONG way to go to actually win a title. What will it take? Let me tell you, grasshopper…
I’ve always felt that the NBA is a league dominated by Superstars, not just good teams, and not mere All-Stars. I decided to look at some data to see if the facts backed me up, and I’m a big enough man to admit that I was dead right!
I analyzed every NBA champ since the advent of the MVP award in 1956, and the results speak for themselves…Superstars win championships, period. Over 54 seasons, only 6 NBA champs (11%) had no MVP on the team, and 1/3 had two (or more) MVP winners on the same team! I also checked how many of the NBA’s All-Time Top 50 players were on each champion, and the results were just as overwhelming. All but 1 NBA champ had either an MVP or a Top 50 player (the outlier being the very lucky ‘04 Pistons), that’s less than 2% over 54 seasons. Even more compelling, 74% of all champs had TWO or more top 50 players, and fully 41% had 3 or more on the same team.
What does this all mean? Basically, you have no shot to win it all without an MVP or Hall of Fame caliber player, and to really make a good run at it you need at least two bona-fide Superstars.
So, how do the Blazers stack up? Well, it’s not all bad. B-Roy definitely has MVP potential and should be a Superstar, if he stays healthy. However, no other Blazer has anything close to this level of potential (and please don’t say Oden, All-Star maybe, but I think MVP talk is a bit of a stretch). This leads me to my point - we ABSOLUTELY MUST HAVE at least one more Superstar if we want to be NBA Champions.
So KP, quit fooling around with these average players and use our once-in-a-generation stable of trading chips to go get a true Superstar!! Everyone but Roy is expendable in this quest.
Epilogue -- I’ve made my point above, but I wanted to toss out an unorthodox trade scenario that I’ve not yet heard. My idea is to go after Nash and Nowitzki. Both have a few good years left and would give us a 3-4 year championship window. Nowitzki is a scoring machine and Nash can distribute to Roy, Nowitzki, and Oden. Best of all, both are obtainable. I’m guessing we could get Nash for Bayless & Rudy, and Nowitzki for LA and Outlaw (give or take a few picks or some cash, etc.). That gives us a starting five of Nash, Roy, Batum, Nowitzki, and Oden...three Superstars and 2 potential All-Stars!! Also, Nash and Nowitzki are great friends and would love to play together, plus they’re both great guys and would fit in Portland. Not bad, eh?
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What makes you think either are available?
And what would you trade to get them?
I highly doubt Cuban trades Dirk for anything less than one of our “big three”.
And the word is that Nash is soon to sign an extension in Phoenix. (Why, I have no idea.)
by Fantastic Red Turtle on Jul 12, 2009 9:21 PM PDT reply actions
Nice starting 5......
that we would be trading our entire bench for. Hope they can play 48. Me, I’d rather have a good bench and very good starting 5 than a superstar starting five and a bunch of fill in scrubs.
Question
Do you know what happens when you take a cake out that is not ready?
It becomes a half-baked Blazers Edge post?
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Jul 12, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions
This happens when you bake a rock band
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipy58SaIRhs
Darius Miles Tribute Vid
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
Ummmmm
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Jul 12, 2009 9:35 PM PDT reply actions 8 recs
More to the point...
I know Nowitzki/Nash is a risky play (though I think it would work), but what do you think of my central thesis that we need another Superstar, rather than these mediocre players? It would cost us bench strength & young potential, but I think we CAN’T win without it.
i think most people think we already have the superstars on the team.
roy does have a strong beginning resume and the hope is that la and oden can become superstars… we’ll see.
by Fantastic Red Turtle on Jul 12, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions
LMA is not a superstar, nor does he have the potential.
I would say his ceiling is All-Star. Oden could turn things around, IMO. It’s laughable to me the way the media and fans (not you guys, but NBA fans from other teams) want to write Oden off already. He’s young. Very young. And sometimes it takes longer to adjust and sometimes you have to deal with injuries that later get worked out. There’s still hope for Oden.
But I think you guys do need another superstar to really win it all. And as to the trade ideas. Sign Nash if you want him. But Nowitski is completely unattainable. How many times does Mark Cuban have to say that he would rather trade his children away then trade Dirk before people get it. He’s not going anywhere. Evidenced by the fact that they have made several moves this off season to get help for Dirk so they can go for it.
I’m guessing this fanpost gets deleted because of the title..
But regarding your thesis, I think it is flawed. Go look at your list and see how many of those MVP’s were traded and then led a team to a title. Very, very few (Garnett, Kareem, the “fo fo fo” Sixers, that’s about it)… and there are many more examples of past their prime former 1st team all NBA guys who don’t work out at all in their new digs.
I won’t even talk about those trade proposals for Nowitzki/Nash, not gonna happen.
But I think what you may be getting at is that we can get a top notch player so why mess with the Millsaps - and who knows, this may end up happening via an imbalanced trade proposal this year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I&feature=channel_page
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jul 12, 2009 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Right
Here are a couple of links that will explain the conversation rules here.
They are also posted on the right sidebar.
"Portland's best years are still ahead. The Blazers aren't stalled yet. They have a ton of time left on the clock." - Dave, 06/29
OOOO, he said it again, he said it again!!!!!
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Their best "basketball days" are behind them...
You should be focusing more on superstars around the age of mid-twenties (e.g. CP3, Amare, Harris, DWilliams, CAnthony DWade, LeBron, Agent0, etc.) Otherwise our Blazers will not win multiple titles. I don’t know about you, but that is unacceptable with the way this team has been built the past few years.
I agree, they need another BRoy all-star/mvp talent on the roster and it appears that needs to be established from the PG or SF position. Both of these can be had easier than trying to obtain Dirk/Nash.
Ramon Sessions and Tayshaun Prince would be my choices…Love to see a roster of:
Sessions/Bayless
Roy/Rudy
Prince/Batum
Aldridge/Millsap
Oden/Pryz
End of bench: Pendergraph, Mills
by gr8odensravens on Jul 12, 2009 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions
i like prince
but do you really think he is MVP talent?
Senior Asian ambassador of Blazers Edge
by Philthyanimal on Jul 12, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions
no way
I’ll take my chances with Roy, just cuz Nowitzki and Nash have won MVP’s does not mean they will win us a championship, especially Nash. more like the winning championships, is what wins MVP’s. Much of the time it is the best player on the best team who wins the MVP,they probly deserve it, but it also helps their cause, and they have a good chance to win the championship. that is why Wade did not win the MVP, his team wasn’t wining. I would take 10 years of Aldridge and Millsap(if we get him) over 3 years of meaningful production out of Dirk. Why isnt Dallas so good? i mean they have both Jason Kidd and Nowitzki. Basically i think you need some more patience. We are better off without an overpaid contract that has a few trophies on the mantle. I think our guys, witrh a few improvements can earn their own trophies that really matter.
WHOOOOAAA!!
Wow! We should just trade LMA and Oden, with maybe Blake or Outlaw for Lebron or Kobe. I mean it all sounds so easy. I mean anbody would take our possible all stars for their Superstars right???
Or not.
I think if KP could pull a Superstar it would have been done.
by Jonny1time on Jul 12, 2009 10:08 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I don't think that the 04 Pistons were
lucky either. They were a good team and made it back to the finals the next year where they took the Spurs to 7 games. They had 54 wins both years by the way. Let the cake bake…
the outlier being the very lucky ‘04 Pistons
That was the definition of a team. There was nothing lucky about them winning that year. What they made the conference finals 6 straight years right?
The NBA: Where amazingly bad officiating happens, is encouraged, and rewarded.
Actually they could be considered lucky
Even though they did make 6 ECF, does that mean they were a championship team year in & out? I don’t think so.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Also...
88-89 and 89-90 Pistons didn’t have any superstars either: Thomas, Dumars, The Worm, Salley, and Laimbeer. Perhaps Rodman became a superstar, Phil Jackson referred to him as the most gifted athlete that he’d coached. http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Phil-Jackson-Rodman-is-the-greatest-athlete-I-v?urn=nba,103886
When I think of a superstar, I picture a rare generational player such as Russell, The Big Dipper, Robinson, Dr. J, Bird, Kareem, Magic, Jordan, Shaq, Duncan, and Bryant who alter the way people approach the game. The Blazers have a brutal road ahead of their ten championships, I can’t see any shortcuts.
There is a lot of talent in the league right now. Has there ever been a time when three of these said superstars are competing for ring 5?
?
Isiah Thomas wasn’t a superstar? Look, I know he’s a bad manager, but he’s a top 10 point guard of all time.
by samuelleejackson on Jul 13, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think that he was
They were my favorite team back then. Jordan was a superstar. Bird, Magic, but not Zeke. Not at all.
Also...
88-89 and 89-90 Pistons didn’t have any superstars either: Thomas, Dumars, The Worm, Salley, and Laimbeer. Perhaps Rodman became a superstar, Phil Jackson referred to him as the most gifted athlete that he’d coached. http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Phil-Jackson-Rodman-is-the-greatest-athlete-I-v?urn=nba,103886
When I think of a superstar, I picture a rare generational player such as Russell, The Big Dipper, Robinson, Dr. J, Bird, Kareem, Magic, Jordan, Shaq, Duncan, and Bryant who alter the way people approach the game. The Blazers have a brutal road ahead of their ten championships, I can’t see any shortcuts. There is a lot of talent in the league right now. Has there ever been a time when three of these said superstars are competing for ring 5?
Sorry about the mess
Top post is the way I intended it to be.
Thanks for your post BlazerNater.
You're right that the Bad Boy Pistons were historically one of the least Star-studded champions...
…though they did have Isiah Thomas, who was top 50, as well as 1other Hall of Famer in Joe Dumars. Plus, they had Rodman and Laimbeer who were both All-Stars. As much as I’d like to believe it, I just don’t think we have even that level of talent on this team.
Thanks for all the responses (positive & negative), I just wanted to challenge the “let it bake” camp, because if we wait, all our rookies will need their big contracts and we’ll just get split to pieces and never win any titles.
by ThaBlazerNater on Jul 12, 2009 10:43 PM PDT reply actions
I don't care that you don't want me to say Oden will be a superstar
He has played one year, in a weakened condition, where he wasn’t allowed to exercise his lower body. He was still very productive. They don’t make too many guys that big and that athletic. He is special. He stands a good chance of developing into a superstar.
While I appreciate the research that went into this post, I don’t think there’s a shred of evidence in it that the Blazers can’t win a title, with nothing more than a few minor roster tweaks. Look at the 2 teams in the finals this year. The Lakers and Magic each have one MVP/HoF type player. They have some good supporting players, but no other guys on that level.
Right now, we have a superstar (Roy) and a near all star (LA). If LA can grow to all star and Oden comes alive, we’re about there. I would still like a few pieces that I think are missing, but I don’t think those pieces are other MVP candidates.
Rex is a starter by the 2010 trade deadline. Watch.
Your numbers are skewed...
most of the magical top 50 are in the top 50 BECAUSE they won championships… Numbers can be used in many ways.
by Ilikeemall on Jul 12, 2009 10:55 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 2 recs
*ding*ding*ding*
You, sir, are correct.
Rex is a starter by the 2010 trade deadline. Watch.
by dan_the_man on Jul 12, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly right.
People gain the superstar tag from winning championships, or at least coming close many times. I guarantee if we win a championship, Roy at very least will be considered a superstar by default (if he isn’t already. He’s already being mentioned in the same breath as Dwayne Wade).
The numbers are as objective as possible...
I recognize that it’s impossible to determine whether a player’s accolades are due to their individual skill or to their team’s success, because those two factors are strongly correlated and thus difficult to separate. That’s why I didn’t try to make my own list, but rather used what seemed to be the best list available. I cannot think of a more fair and objective way to classify players as “superstar” or not, and that’s exactly why I used the methodology I did. Your making the same assumption I did with your statement, and the fact is surely somewhere in between, but nobody knows exactly where.
What, in your infinite wisdom, would be a more fair way to approach this analysis over 54 seasons and multiple eras of basketball?
by ThaBlazerNater on Jul 13, 2009 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions
My"infinite" wisdom is quite finite...
I don’t fault your analysis… maybe your application. My stance is that we may very well have the “superstar(s)” you seem to covet and simply need to develop them. If developed properly, and the team around them is built correctly, and they win 3-4 Championships… will there be any doubt that Roy,LMA and maybe even Oden will be remembered as Superstars?
I don’t think gutting our bench talent to get an MVP is realistic… or productive. But that’s just my opinion.
And it worked so well
And it worked so well for Kidd/Norwiski or Nash/Shaq/Stoudamire. They won so many titles …oh wait.
Even better
the (I can’t even say the word, but they live in SoCal) team of 2004, full of all stars, lost to Detroit in 5.
dude,
people that want to buy championships should just go root for the celtics or fakers.
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
I'm dissappointed that the Cavs
brought in Shaq. In my eyes it severely taints things. I was thinking they might get Bosh…never mind.
I would agree another player to make plays and/or take scoring pressure off Roy would help. Problem is, how to get one.
- Danny Granger was my #1 target for the offseason last year. Then he extended in Indiana, and became an All-Star. Now he isn’t available anymore
- Chris Paul/Deron Williams/Tony Parker/Derrick Rose/Devin Harris isn’t available, unless in our dreams
- Rajon Rondo isn’t available, unless for another star. And that only because he seems to develop into a player who is hard to coach and disliked by teammates
- Ramon Sessions was available at the deadline, now not so much anymore although I would still like the Blazers make an offer for him, definitely if the Millsap plan fails
- Mike Conley was available last summer until November, but the Blazers were not willing to give up Blake. Now he is locked in
- Caron Butler isn’t available, the Wizards want to contend in the East
- Gerald Wallace doesn’t seem available, the Bobcats want to make the playoffs
- Richard Jefferson was available, but KP didn’t want him at the price the Bucks were asking at the deadline. Now the price came down, but we didn’t have the expiring contracts anymore
- Tayshaun Prince isn’t available unless for another star, the Pistons want to contend in the East
- Amar’e Stoudemire is a loony who cares more about his marketing side ventures than winning and thinks he is the second coming of Jesus. And he is bad on defense.
- 2010 free agent superstars will mostly just re-sign with their old teams
- The mentioned Dirk Nowitzki isn’t available (and while I’m a fan of his I fail to see how that would work on our roster unless you want to swap young (LMA and a lot of filler) for veteran, the Mavericks want to win it all
- The mentioned Steve Nash hates slow offenses, plays no defense, is aging quickly
- Which oft-mentioned target did I forget? Well, it’s not available
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
by Norsktroll on Jul 12, 2009 11:21 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
You go, Norskie! REC
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
so you just reduced our championship window from 10 years to 3 years.
how is this good for us?
by RipCityRoyCity on Jul 13, 2009 12:32 AM PDT reply actions
Sorry dude. Superstars don't come to places like Portland. Period
At least not on purpose. Gotta get lucky and draft one.
Darius Miles Tribute Vid
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
That may change after they at least make it to the WCF.
Guys want to win. Guys want to get paid. If Portland shows that they are an elite team ready to challenge for a Championship, then the vet FAs will start knocking on our door. If the Blazers come close this year, watch who they will be able to pull in with the mid-level exception next summer.
They just don’t quite have the street cred yet to pull it off. If Greg steps up, if Bayless shows that he is going to be a real PG, guys will come knocking.
Win, and they will come.
by upper left corner on Jul 13, 2009 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd rather be a perennial playoff team for the next 10 years...
…than be rebuilding all over again in 3 years.
Superstars win championships....
Yes, players like LMA and BRoy will win championships.
Take note of the 2009 NBA Champions, the Lakers. They have 1 superstar in Kobe Bryant. Maybe Gasol is superstar?? That’s debatable.
The team that knocked us out of the playoffs, the Rockets, had 1 superstar in Ming, I don’t think of Artest as a superstar.
So how do you figure adding more “superstars” automatically makes us a championship contender? Think about it man, it doesn’t make much sense!! Yes, the NBA is a star driven league, but you don’t need 3 or 4 superstars, you need a team to win a championship, and that’s what we have now, and that’s what we are building on. We are a very young team, and we won 54 games last year!!!!!! We should continue to improve based on experience alone. There is no reason to believe we “have” to add anything!
This Fanpost is an epic fail......
This is precisely the simplistic thinking that has destroyed many good, young teams:
A team accumulates a few good, young players and starts to challenge the elite. The GM decides, “we need to get to the next level,” and trades away gobs of young talent for big names on the decline. Poof! There goes the future. Take a look at Chicago, they paid a ton for Ben Wallace. How did that work?
KP is to be commended for his extreme reluctance to trade our young talent.
by upper left corner on Jul 13, 2009 8:23 AM PDT reply actions
Let's look at the 3 most successful teams of the past 20 years
Bulls-
Jordan- MVP
Pippen- All-Star
00-02 Lakers
Shaq- MVP
Kobe- All-Star (He was NOT an MVP at this time in his career, not even close.)
Odd year Spurs
Duncan- MVP
Robinson/Manu/Parker (varying years)- All-Star
In other words, each of these teams had ONE MVP CALIBER PLAYER, with an All-Star or two to compliment them. Roy might never win an MVP because of LBJ and CP3, but he will be an MVP caliber player. Will Oden/LMA be complimentary All-Star players? We shall see.
You’re saying teams had 2-3 MVPs on them to win titles, but ignoring how good the players were when the team won the title. If the Lakers beat the Pistons in the finals you would say they had 3 MVPs. In reality, they had a Kobe who had never gotten an MVP, an MVP in Shaq, and an MVP in Malone who was old and not even an All-Star anymore. So… 3 MVPs = 1 actual MVP.
The Princess of Blazersedge
Good post
People around here overvalue the Blazers young talent and don’t like it when someone suggests making wholesale changes to their beloved team. Your premise is simple and one that has been espoused by experts for many years. You need to have two or three studs on your team to win a championship. Your mistake was using the specific terms MVP, Top 50, and all-Star.
There are two ways to create the kind of team we are talking about. You can either trade or you can develp young talent. Trading for a young, established star like CP3, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant & Lebron James is very difficult (or KP would have done it already). While you continue to look for these opportunities you CONSTANTLY work to develop your young talent hoping that one or more of these players become an established star in the league. In our case it could be Oden or LMA.
Farting around, as you call it, with players like Milsap and Turkoglu is not a bad interim strategy because once attained, they become tradeable assets that could eventually land you an established star – assuming they don’t develop into one themselves.
Good post for opening the conversation, but just a difficult strategy to implement.
Nash and Dirk?
Between the two of those guys, our defense would be non-existent. We would be on pace with Indiana giving up 106+/- pts per game. Sure, we could score 108 to 109 but that also takes BRoy out of the leadership role which he developed so well this last year. His full 4 years of college has shown to be an asset.
I also think that the Milsap deal is partly a revenge move from the Miles situation last season. KP has his poker face on and it is going to work out well in the next 2-3 years.
The Blazers will make the playoffs, probably get past the 1st round but in 2010/2011, they will be a force. Especially as the Western Conference has its aging teams.
Spike
I agree with your general comments about needing another star
and have been banging that drum for awhile.
Disagree with the actual proposals. Best way for us to pick up a star is not to get former declining MVPs that are still overvalued by their own teams. Best way is to get a rising star with high upside they haven’t reached yet that their teams are thinking about trading away for non-basketball reasons. Guys between 24 to 27 or so. I’d be talking to Ainge about Rondo constantly for example.
Your language is unacceptable, but.....
your main point is correct. Two years ago, we lucked into Greg Oden. The IMMEDIATE followup should have been (1) get rid of Zach, which we did, and (2) sign a small forward — Lewis, Wallace, , or whomever, which we did not. We have also been lollygagging around on a point guard equally as long.
No one here likes to admit this, but other than getting Roy and Aldridge in the draft, salary dumping Randolf, and getting a ping pong ball on Oden, Pritchard hasn’t really done anything to to build this team. No meaningful free agent signing, no trade, no nothing. And even the Roy/Aldridge preceded Pritch as GM and had as much to do with the hated Patterson/Nash regime as him.
Bill Veeck, the long-ago famous GM of the Cleveland Indians, used to say that after the team had been built you still needed to do one or two more things. Pritch seems to think everything can be done in all good time.
It ain’t so, Kevin. You have to move faster because the rest of the world is not standing still.
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