The Official Trade Drawer for June 8th, 2009 a.k.a. "The Big One"

although Portland might package that 3rd pick and move back to take Terrence Williams or James Harden.

I would LOVE Jeff Green on this team, but HATE to lose Fernandez

I do feel Portland is giving up a bit much in this trade

For some reason, I feel that Portland WILL trade Rudy to get either a PG or PF.

I love that trade.

I really like Fernandez, but Green + Rubio sells it for me, well. If Rubio is really available at 3.

That aside, though, the pairing of Jeff Green and Kevin Durant at the forward positions is outright terrible on defense. Between Green’s small standing reach at power forward and Durant’s all-around ineptitude on the defensive end against both stronger and quicker wings — which indicates he gets abused by small forwards of all styles — it’s obvious that the Oklahoma City Thunder ought to consider packaging Green for somebody who’d fit better alongside Durant.

The Thunder also need an upgrade at center, too, but that can be solved by my earlier trade proposal of Earl Watson and Chucky Atkins — who have an expiring contract and partially guaranteed contract, respectively — to the Los Angeles Clippers for Chris Kaman. While Kaman is no Tyson Chandler, he’s nevertheless a solid low-post scorer and rebounder when healthy and focused on his game.

From there, it’s then back to finding out who can realistically be obtained to help aid Kaman and Durant in the frontcourt. And, with Green as the main trade bait, that should create a fair amount of viable options. So, after a long, unbiased view at all the plausible possibilities — with an emphasis on unbiased — Andrei Kirilenko, who’s a great weakside help defender and versatile player in spite of being overpaid for his services, comes to my mind.

To acquire Kirkilenko from the Utah Jazz, a package of Green, Nick Collison, and Nenad Krstic should surely seal the deal. The Thunder would receive a 2010 first-round draft pick (via the New York Knicks) in the deal, too, so as to compensate for absorbing Kirilenko’s huge salary obligations over the next couple of seasons.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=mskzco

For the Thunder, Kirklenko’s weakside help defense, deceptively impressive passing ability as a high-post facilitator, and all-around unique skill set should work well in a frontcourt that also features a true pivotman (i.e., Kaman) and high-volume scoring wing (i.e., Durant). The cost for acquiring Kirilenko would be a high one, but it’d most likely be worth it. If it fails, however, that 2010 first-round draft pick (via the New York Knicks) is a shiny consolation prize.

For the Jazz, Green is an optimum fit at the 3 in Jerry Sloan’s variation of the UCLA high-post offense. C.J. Miles, who was subpar on both offense and defense as a starter last season, would be rightfully benched — and consequently named Ronnie Brewer’s backup at the 2 — with Green replacing him in the starting lineup. While Green was a poor fit at power forward in Oklahoma City, his skill set — which is a cross between Boris Diaw and Ryan Gomes — would probably do well in Utah.

In addition, Krstic and Collison would be a sweet second unit frontline for the Jazz. Behind Mehmet Okur and either Carlos Boozer or Paul Millsap — with Millsap most likely being the one who’s re-signed by the team — Sloan would no longer have to rely upon guys like Kyrylo Fesenko and Kosta Koufos in important situations. Lastly, Sloan would probably be ecstatic if Kevin O’Connor dealt Kirilenko – as those two have had their tiffs in the past — even at the cost of a future first-round draft pick.

I agree that Rudy is the most valuable in terms of trade bait, but I don’t think you can really give up him, Martell AND Trout. That’s a TON of points and talent. It’s alot to give up for a pick that IMO is not a guaranteed star (Rubio). If he was “can’t” miss, I might feel differently, but I am just not sure he is.

I am really not sold on Rubio. Whether he is as good as he is being hyped or whether he would fit in well with our system. It seems like a very big step backward to throw Rudy (and Bayless) away for a potential point guard who hasn’t played a game in the NBA yet. I admit I haven’t watched Rubio much, but he did not impress me in the Olympics against the USA. He looked very similar to Sergio to me.
I love Jeff Green, but I don’t think he is a significant upgrade over what we have at small forward.
I don’t like this idea at all.

But next year we would lose more games then we did this year and that is even with the improvement of ODen and other players. We don’t have a point that can play now. We also are trading away 4 players that can shoot the 3 at a 40% rate if they haven’t done it they have been real close and will one day. to get a poor defensive SF and a Point that isn’t going to dominate until a few years down. I would keep Batum starting. I wouldn’t do the deal because I am not despert and I feel KP can pull off a heist somewhere else if not even in OKC, but with a different trade

For my money, I’m not sure I like a step down in the veteran PG department (Watson) and another unproven rookie PG prospect in Rubio along with giving up Rudy and Martell just to get Jeff Green.

Don’t we value Batum higher than that? We need to aqcuire Jeff Green about as badly as we need to give up a talent like Rudy’s.

I think KP can work some better magic; no offense Dave;)

Portland would be trading away all of its proven outside shooting for a subpar PG, a slightly overpriced PF, a tweener and a risky prospect. When Roy is inevitably double-teamed, who is going to take the outside shot? Jeff Green?

Crikey, I just realized you’re throwing in Webster too. Dave, do you have something against outside shooting?

I think OKC should play Durant at SG and Green at SF. If Westbrook is at PG then they need bruisers at center and PF. Maybe Collison can play PF and they can hope to find a center in FA. Maybe Gortat from Orlando?

Kirilenko is interesting, but maybe Portland should go after him. He would upgrade Portland’s perimeter defense.

He likes all of those guys so why start over with a bunch of newcomers let alone Rubio. I believe he’ll be a good on a lesser team but the way Portland plays would just hold him hostage like the Sergio situation. As an outsider the scariest trade I would see Portland doing is trading out of the first round, stealing a defensive wing player, a shot blocker or a post scorer to play with Aldridge. As it stands Portland already has too many rookie contracts they can’t resign and aren’t good trade value.

Dave,
I HATE this trade. We’re losing three guys still on the upside of their career for one guy on the upside of his career and a draft pick. I don’t understand how it makes sense. It also turns a position of strength (3/4) into a weakness.

Even given the Jeff Green is better than Travis Outlaw (and he’d better be, the difference in ages isn’t so much), Nick Collison and Earl Watson are “replacement level” players in my eyes – you can get guys almost as good for free from the D-League. Will Conroy is out there, for example, and there isn’t a way to expect significantly better production from Watson.

Like many have said, it comes down to how highly you value Rubio and I value Rubio very highly. Nothing is a sure thing, but he is IMO as close as it comes when you talk about PGs. He is the upper-echelon PG prospect that could take us to the promised land. Imagine us with Derrick Rose this year. That could be us with Rubio next year.

I don’t like losing all our depth, but if we did this trade and picked up some veteran leadership with our exception we would be fine. I never have been (and probably never will be) a Travis Outlaw fan so I trade that includes him where we don’t get robbed is a good trade in my book.

My only other thought is: could we swap out Blake and Webster for Bayless and #24? I’m gonna assume that the contracts make that impossible. But for as much as I like Bayless, Rubio will make him kinda redundant and retaining Blake could make Rubio’s transition smoother. I also regret that we would be bringing in Rubio, but never get to see him play with Rudy. Bummer, but dems the brakes I guess.

StuckeyDuck approves of the trade.

I hate this trade. The point guards alone would cost the Blazers 10 game. Then Roy would probably have to pay point guard for most the 4th quarters, so then he’d break down before the end of the season. With Roy out and weak point guards, Oden will foul out in the first quarter. This trade could set the Blazers back 15 years.

Giving up Rudy, and taking on two more point guards (with Rubio), who is our ‘future’ PG? Bayless? Rubio?

No way I do this trade. Firstly I wouldn’t trade Rudy for nuffin… I do want to Rubio but I can’t stand trading the rest. Well Blake could go but… What happened to you Dave, you used to be cool?

Oh and Earl Watson is not the guy for this team.

Me, I don’t let go of Webster for much of anything til we see his full potential. Could be huge. Well if we had a couch that trusted his players and got the most out of them.

Blazer fans think this is horrible.
Sonics/ex-Sonics/Thunder fans think this is horrible.

I think you hit that balance point. It does change the dynamics of both teams greatly. Our 3pt threat drops significantly, as we trade four of of our best five shooters. Conversly, OKC’s 3 pt shooting goes through the roof.

I like Green and I also like the potential of Rubio. And while I think it would be a fair trade from both sides, the reason I don’t like it is because we are trading away all of our shooters. Our team is slowly being built to have some inside scoring (Oden and Aldridge), some penetrating and either scoring or dishing (Roy and hopefully Bayless) and then if those don’t work, inside out basketball with deadly outside shooters. With Rubio having very little outside game, Green not having the three ball range (although I love his overall game), we have no one to receive the kickouts as we would be trading our three and arguably our four best three ball shooters (Travis is pretty good with the three now). That’s why I wouldn’t do the deal. If you could spare either Webster or Rudy from this deal and add some other filler, then I would consider. Otherwise I would have to pass.

… a nice analysis to explain the deal.

Too bad it sucks.

OK, it may not suck and even you admit you’re heart isn’t really in it. I know that I can’t see doing it.

I happen to think Nick Collison would be a nice addition. He’s a smart player and fits the “banger” PF everyone says we need. I have nothing to say about Earl Watson, other than I’ve never coveted him for any team. That leaves Green and the #3 pick.

I haven’t seen Rubio play and even if I had, it would not have been in the NBA. He may be the next basketball jesus. He may also be just another top 30 PG. The odds certainly favor him having a learning curve, which suggests that Portland could very well see some regression in wins next season, unless you believe Earl Watson is an aceptable starting PG or that Bayless will blossom into a real PG after just one season.

As for Green, I guess it comes down to how good you really think he will be. Is he a Caron Butler or Josh Howard level player? If so, then maybe the deal is ok. But right now I’d rather have Rudy over Ricky and I think Martell is likely to be every bit as good at SF as Green will be. So it comes down to believing Nick Collison is worth Blake, Travis and some roster flexibility plus giving up two guys who may be better than the two you are getting.

Everything else is just damage control taking the BPA in the draft.

So instead of making that deal with us Dave, why wouldn’t the Thunder call Mike Dunleavy and say “Jeff Green and our #3 and our #25 – and if you are still not biting a future protected first round pick – for Al Thornton, Mardy Collins and the #1 pick”. Then they go on to draft hometown boy Blake Griffin, who solves one of their needs and helps them sell tickets (and would have made Green redundant anyway unless they go back to playing Durant at SG which is just wrong). And Thornton is their new clear backup to Durant (note that Thornton is three years older than Green, so there is a quality difference there. Thornton is inefficient and entering his prime, Green is already better and still long before his prime).

The Clippers get a semi-proven guy in Green who is better than what they have and can start at SF for them (something he is reportedly mulling for Griffin, which would be just wrong), don’t immediately have to resolve their PF/C conundrum for 50 cents on the dollar with Camby, Z-Bo, Kaman, Jordan, etc. that Griffin would have made more pressing, and can still draft a top guy like Rubio if still there/Jennings/Evans/Holiday to be the backup to Davis for the foreseeable future. Collins is just deadweight to make the salaries match.

Much easier deal that solves all desires perfectly. Which team doesn’t make that? Oh yeah, I forgot Mike Dunleavy is calling the shots for the Clippers. http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=nw2gns

1.) The Blazers don’t really have a problem with offense. They ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency last year and 10th defensively. In this trade you would basically be trading 3 terrible defenders for two fantastic defenders. I imagine that would help our defense a lot. Also keep in mind that our offense is better when Oden is on the floor and nothing will help keep Oden out of foul trouble more than adding two great perimeter defenders. The added production from Oden would offset a great deal of whatever we lose on offensive.

2.) Loosing four spot up 3 point shooters on a team that shoots too many jump shots is not necessarily a bad thing. Green is actually a good distance shooter and Rudy’s role as instant offense off the bench is easily replaceable. We didn’t even have Webster last year so it’s not like he was entirely necessary to our success. In addition I’m betting Bayless and Batum are both more consistent from downtown next season, offsetting the loss of Rudy somewhat.

3.) How hard is it to find bench players? Rudy is a bench guy. Replace him with Von Wafer, Jamal Crawford, Jerryd Bayless, etc. It’s not that hard to find backup shooting guards who can give you consistent spurts of production. It is however, pretty hard to find 19 year old PG sensations.

I’m sorry that just doesn’t make the Blazers better; you’ve also not solved the Rodriguez problem: you still have 4 PGs (not three as listed), the team is incredibly thin at SG/SF if Batum is your only first off the bench solution, and your second team is going to get hammered offensively.

neither side makes this trade

That is too much I think giving them all the players we have I think we lossing value more than gaining but dunno thats my opinion.

Thus, Oklahoma City would be crazy to make this trade. Furthermore, Nate McMillan is exactly the wrong coach for the freewheeling style of Ricky Rubio, so turning over the roster to get him makes little sense for the Blazers. This trade is bad for the Blazers, and flat out horrible for the Thunder.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=mlrtqv

But for four reasons, all having to do with Ricky Rubio:
1. I am not at all convinced he is going to be a “franchise PG” as someone said in here. He may not even come close and definitely will not in the next four years (for those of us to whom that matters)
2. I am not convinced that he drops to #3, and then what would we do?
3. I think Rubio’s talent would be maximized (at least in the short term) by playing alongside his former teammate Rudy, which could not happen in this scenario
4. I think it would also help for Rubio and the team to have a stalwart veteran PG still in the lineup, both for his sake and the team’s. We give that away in Blake, and IMO don’t get it back in Watson.
4b. Rubio and Bayless will both be stifled by competing for minutes (ala Jerryd and Sergio)

but ultimately I think we get fleeced a little bit here. I like Jeff Green a lot too, but think with the amount of talent we are giving up, we would need to get a serious player in return. The #3 pick is not guaranteed to get us Rubio. Memphis’s love for thabeet could very well be a smoke screen, and I for one predict they will absolutely take him at #2. Also, I think Batum will be a better player at the 3 than Green in a few years, so we would be getting rid of some of our most sexy players for a position that we already have locked up. I say nay on this one.

I had to sleep on it last night to let it settle in.

Last night, I had thought that Batum was a perfect fit at SF for the Blazers so adding
another very good SF seemed redundant.
BUT…

Oden, LA, Roy, and Rubio will be future All-stars.
 And at last starter position, we will have 2 sharing minutes and also SG backing up ROY.

What do we give up to have a young All-star team going forward? Depth!
Who can quickly replenish that depth (and have fun doing it) in the next couple years?
KP and his scouting staff can, easily.

The biggest problem going forward is ball distribution.
Roy needs the ball in his hands to score but so does Oden and LA.
Who better than Rubio to get it to them.
And until young Rubio’s shooting eye improves with experience,
he can easily, consistently score using his excellent pick-in-roll shooting.

I think… with the players you propose…. the Blazers
would make the playoffs next year and scare-the-poop
out and competition that would face in the finals.

I wouldn’t do that deal, but kudos for coming up with the first big trade idea I’ve seen at Blazers Edge in decades that didn’t include the names Kirk Hinrich or Chris Paul.

For some reason I thought Green had played really well last year…. checking the stats, though, it isn’t really clear that he was better than Batum or Rudy last year. He had a 13.9 PER, low shooting efficiency…

It’s sane and legitimate. I’d like to keep Martell or Rudy though, Rudy especially if we can get Rubio. That would be a real spanish connection. Or armada. Or whatever new nickname we’d give the duo.

Rudio? Rickedy Fernando? In any case, I’m calling Rubio El Nino.

Then we are talking ;)

But, honestly, I think OKC will package Green + 3rd overall for the best big man available.

Earl watson sucks at shooting and is 29 years old. (wouldn’t help our championship chances at all)
Nick collison would get no playing time. there is ten minutes behind aldridge and no minutes at center. Where will he get his minutes?
Jeff Green is not any better than blake and outlaw.
We would lose rudy fernandez(a future all star), The range of outlaw and blake, and are sf who is primed for a breakout year (webster) for jeff green, a terrible shooter(watson), a player that would demand we play him more than triple we could offer, and a drft pick that couldn’t fill our needs unless we got rubio.
That doesn’t sound like a trade that would help us, let alone bolt us into the nba finals like a trade called “The Big One” should?

Could he be our starting ‘3’ and the third consistent scoring threat our team needs? What would we have to do to get that guy? Would he be worth it? I’m gonna go find a scouting report on him right now…

"Nate has taken on so many young guys the last couple of years," Pritchard said. "At a point in time, you can’t focus on development anymore; you have to focus on being successful. I would rather not add four rookies again."

http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=124418073755700200

Blake’s not going anywhere. Martell’s trade value is low until he can show he’s back healthy. And when the time comes to deal Rudy, KP will get more in return for him than this

Folks, we should be locking into trade partners who have had playoff success lately (San Antonio, Detroit, Boston, Miami, etc) KP needs to add veterans who have extensive playoff experience to this roster, and there’s not anyone on the OKC Thunder roster who meets that criteria

Just like Detroit did with McDyess, part of the deal could be OKC agrees to cut Blake (non-guaranteed) and we use our MLE to resign him. A rookie PG is not going to start for Nate. No way no time. Bayless might get there next year but only if he can shut down the opponent PG every night. Blake on the other hand could set an NBA record for 3 FA signings with the same team in 4 years! This scenario allows Portland to buy out Earl Watson and be unencumbered.

I trust in KP so his call on Ricky would be the reason Portland considers this. I like Collison but not enough – same with Green. Ricky has to be the player the dreamers believe he is and that is a huge projection for an 18 yr old PG.

Interesting thoughts, but that’s all they are and ever will be.

The Thunder will likely wind up with James Harden to address our need for perimeter shooting, then look to free agency for inside help. They are one of the few teams that could offer Gortat more than the mid-level exception, and who knows who may become available if the luxury tax ceiling drops below $60 million as some are predicting.