Trevor Ariza?

by ninjasocks on Jun 30, 2009 1:41 PM PDT

It's just a throwaway line in a bigger story, but Jeff Eisenberg of the Press Enterprise suggests that Portland may be a suitor for Trevor Ariza (via Ball Don't Lie):

While Ariza has maintained that he hopes to wear purple and gold again next season, agent David Lee said Monday that the Lakers won't receive any hometown discount from his client. Lee declined to reveal how much of a raise Ariza will seek when he becomes an unrestricted free agent Tuesday night at 9:01 p.m., but he said the young forward's upside should make him the most coveted wing player on the market.

Among the teams Lee expects to pursue Ariza: Detroit, Portland and Toronto, franchises with enough cap space to more than double Ariza's $3.1 million salary of last season. [emp. added]

Trevor Ariza is a great, young, long defensive SF who was a major key to LA's playoff success. He's now a free agent and will probably be resigned by LA, but there's a chance he could end up in red and black. I'm sure there are a bunch of mixed feelings about this guy here after he clocked Rudy, but his acquisition may represent a great way to strengthen the Blazer squad while weakening the Lakers.

So, my questions: Is Trevor Ariza a guy you'd want at all on this squad? Is he worth $6 million per year (or more)? Is it even possible (or more likely than, say, trading Trout and a sock full of wooden nickels for Rubio)?

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Ariza or Bass

Those are your best free agent options, for not only this year, but for the future. Go make it happen KP.

After you do this move you can make your trades. Free agency must come first.

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 1:46 PM PDT reply actions

I'd take him

if we are trading at least two of the following: Outlaw, Webster, Batum, and Rudy hopfully for a PG (Harris please)

C*mcast sucks!

by Blazermaniac77 on Jun 30, 2009 1:47 PM PDT reply actions

Yes, I'd take him

Despite what he did to Rudy. He would be a good defensive filler for us.

Proud member of Duck nation!

by skywaker9 on Jun 30, 2009 1:48 PM PDT reply actions

Keep this in mind

PER, which is a mostly offensive efficiency statistic had Ariza at 14.7 in the playoffs and Hedo, even with his arguably great playoff run had one of merely 13.2. Add in the defense and the fact that Ariza is 23 and Hedo is 30 and I think we need people to start talking A LOT more about Ariza. Not to mention the fact that it enables us to hurt our biggest rivals in the process. Ariza is also a perfect fit in our offense, as he has improved his 3 point spot shooting immensely during the season, and in these latest playoffs hit 48% of them.

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 1:52 PM PDT reply actions

I also forgot to mention

he defends LeBron James better than any player in the league. That is something we’re going to need going forward if we want to be winning Championships. Batum is going to be a very good defender in this league as well, but he just isn’t built to stop LeBron.

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Not so sure about this

Ariza and Batum have a very similar build – if anything from the research I have done Batum has 10-15 pounds on Ariza. It may be that Ariza has a better way of defending LeBron and despite any weight difference would probably be stronger than Batum but I don’t see this as a reason to sign him. Batum will gain strength and possibly more bulk and will undoubtedly get better at defending the best opposing players so long as we keep giving him the chance. I think it is easily conceivable that Batum will be just as able to disrupt LeBrons game as Ariza is in the near future.

Also, looking at per 36 minuted stats I don’t see the great improvement Ariza offers us over Batum:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=arizatr01&y1=2009&p2=batumni01&y2=2009

More steals, marginally more points and rebounds with less blocking and similar if not worse shooting percentages – all for a player that has had 3 years more experience. This does not factor in Ariza’s playoff performance however I wouldn’t want to sign a player to a long-term expensive deal based on the playoffs alone. I hope KP doesn’t either,

PG: Hinrich, Bayless, Beaubois
SF: Crash, Smith or status quo
PF:Draft Dejuan Blair, add Pops

by MadBlaze on Jun 30, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions

More steals, points and rebounds means a lot

From a stats perspective, I think Batum will look as good as Ariza is now in a year or two, but Ariza had significantly higher stats last year.

That said, Batum has a much better 3pt percentage, which is key in the Blazers’ offense.

All that glitters isn't chrome

by hoopla-pdx on Jun 30, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Have to hit 3's in our offense

How confident are you that his improvement in 3-pt shooting will continue. I don’t know if Turkoglu is a great option either, but I’m not sure about Ariza (other than to mess with LA).

All that glitters isn't chrome

by hoopla-pdx on Jun 30, 2009 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions

He shot 48% on 3 point shots in the playoffs this year (84 shots, which is substantial)

He specializes in the corner 3 that we rely on here. I’m absolutely confident in Ariza’s ability to shoot 40ish% from 3 and provide stifling defense on the perimeter. Add in the fact that he’s over 6 years younger than Hedo, and I’m absolutely sure he’d be much more deserving of a 5 year 37 million dollar contract than Hedo would be. Getting Ariza from 24-29 years old is better than Hedo from 30-35 years old.

There is no better perimeter defender in the free agent market. He’s also very young, takes something off our biggest rival and provides the exact offensive weapon we prefer from the SF position.

If we don’t get him the only other person I’d truly want is Brandon Bass. I’m going to be upset if we end up using this cap space on a player that’s going to be over 29 years old during his stay on this team. We need players that cover the whole of our championship window in their contracts. A lot of players mentioned as possible additions are far too old for me to use the last cap space we’re going to have for the decade on a one year or two year solution. It’s bad business to do that.

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Better option than Turk

IMO

WWOPD? What would Optimus Prime do?

by Blazer Ninja on Jun 30, 2009 1:55 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

very much agreed

by jksnake99 on Jun 30, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions

So, I think LA would be a lot more likely to sign him than we are

But if we did, what do we do with Batum? Does he play backup, does he get dealt, does he have a better upside than Ariza?

Also, a few folks think that Ariza may be an average player that just peaked during the playoffs (in a contract year)? How likely is it that Ariza’s play declines when he leaves the Lakers and signs a big fat contract?

by ninjasocks on Jun 30, 2009 1:55 PM PDT reply actions

He didn't just peak in the playoffs

Regular Season PER
Ariza = 15.5
Hedo = 14.8

PER doesn’t take defense into account at all, and that only helps Ariza’s case even more. Ariza is a perfect fit on this offense, is the best player in the world at defending LBJ and helps this team for the whole of the next 5 years (he’s 24 now). To even suggest Hedo over him is ridiculous.

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think there's any question that Ariza is a much better player than Turkeyglue

I’m just wondering if he’s overvalued now (coming off of a championship win in a contract year) and whether he’d be a good value now.

by ninjasocks on Jun 30, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions

it really doesn't matter all that much if he's worth

7 million or 9 million. He and Brandon Bass are the best players that we can sign that will be good through the whole of the next 5 years. They’re both 24, and have 5 years of their prime coming up, they both bring things we need, and don’t cost us any of our current players. It’s easily more beneficial to take Ariza or Bass at 25, 26, 27, 28 and 29 years old over Hedo at 31, 32, 33, 34 and 35. I hope KP realizes this.

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not suggesting that Hedo is any less overvalued

In fact, I’m not comparing Ariza to Hedo at all (or suggesting that we sign Hedo).

The fact is, though, that all transactions have opportunity costs. If we spend $6 million on Ariza, that’s $6 million we couldn’t spend on a superstar PG or a beastly backup PG.

Is the SF position the area where the Blazers need to improve the most? Will $X million invested in the SF position improve the team that much more than the same amount invested in the PG or backup PF positions?

by ninjasocks on Jun 30, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Theres no reason you couldn't still do the default trade for Hinrich

Blake and Outlaw = Hinrich

Then you’ve drastically upgraded your teams defense at no cost.

Outlaw turned into Ariza
Blake turned into Hinrich

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions

terrible trade

sorry, but we seriously don’t need hinrich bad enough to give up outlaw

by thetsaiguy on Jun 30, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

that was just one of many options to improve at point guard

which I agree with ninjasocks that we need to do. If we got Ariza, Outlaw would be utterly expendable.

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions

yes we do

we need to upgrade on defense.

by jksnake99 on Jun 30, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions

I do that trade in a heartbeat

no hesitation what so ever.

Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?

by usmcr3049 on Jun 30, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Yup.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jun 30, 2009 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Uhhhhhh, yes we do. Just adding Hinrich and getting rid of Trout I think would net us 3-4 wins right there alone.

I will be very upset if I have to watch another season of Trout jacking up contested 2’s, and instead of BOXING HIS FREAKIN MAN OUT watching him blow by for the easiest offensive rebound and dunk / lay-up you’ve ever seen. I am so done with Trout.

by dario argento on Jun 30, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Adding Hinrich would gain wins

But losing Trout would not. All for trading him for the right type of player but from everything KP and Nate have been saying, Trout won more games for the Blazers than he lost.

Think the hate on Travis is getting a little illogical at this point – sure he needs to go, but its not like he’s a cancer or a useless player.

PG: Hinrich, Bayless, Beaubois
SF: Crash, Smith or status quo
PF:Draft Dejuan Blair, add Pops

by MadBlaze on Jun 30, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Agreed.

He was mentioned repeatedly as a contender for 6th man award, and for good reason. He couldn’t get it done in the playoffs, and I understand people don’t want to see that repeated, but he was a huge lift through the regular season.

An Oregonian in Texas.

by NoiseMekanik on Jun 30, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I disagree completely. Trouts inefficient scoring, lack of getting to the line, lack of boxing his man out, and lack of team defense

are a liability. I think he gives up almost as many points as he gets. I’m not trying to hate on him too much. I do love him as a person. But from a long term standpoint, he will need a pretty substantial contract next year, and I’m sure he is not in the long term plans, so he should be traded now to get value for him instead of just letting him walk ( as long as we can get some decent value in return.

by dario argento on Jun 30, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Make a fantastic offer and force the Lakers to match it.

Even if they keep him, their cap space will be compromised.
If they let him go, we get an excellent SF (though it will necessitate a trade or two to break up the logjam).

The Detroit Pistons did something like this to their rival the Atlanta Hawks in the late ‘80s. They offered a ridiculous amount of money to the Hawks’ very mediocre center (and UFA) Jon Koncak. The Hawks stupidly matched it and were stuck with the guy, redubbed “Jon Kontract,” for 6 more years.

by Calzone on Jun 30, 2009 1:56 PM PDT reply actions

I think damaging the Lakers is a key reason to go for him

They are going to be way over the luxury cap if they sign both Odom and Ariza. The higher we can make that, the more we’ll get back and the less flexibility they will have as Kobe declines and Roy becomes ascendant.

All that glitters isn't chrome

by hoopla-pdx on Jun 30, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Ah yes, the infamous Jon Kontract scenario.

Back when it happened, I read a fascinating article that explained how Kontrac— er, Koncak got his money. It wasn’t as simple as Detroit panicking Atlanta into overpaying, which is how the event has been remembered. Koncak’s agent made a brilliant move to take advantage of a loophole in the CBA. Koncak wanted to take the Detroit offer before they came to their senses, but his agent told him to wait until the deadline — even at the risk of the Pistons withdrawing their offer — and he would get a huge contract from the Hawks.

Atlanta paid Koncak all that dough — more than Magic, Michael, or Larry were earning at the time — because not to do so would have reduced the total amount of money that the CBA stipulated they could spend to keep their own players or acquire free agents. The Hawks weren’t stupid. They knew what Koncak was worth, but they and Koncak’s agent knew that they had to use that money on Koncak or not only lose Koncak to Detroit but also not have it to spend on anyone else.

Koncak’s agent was a genius. I hope Koncak gave him a nice bonus, because he really earned it.

by MiledAnimal on Jun 30, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think the Lakers can match.

I have seen nowhere that Ariza is a restricted free agent. If he signs an offer sheet somewhere else the Lakers can’t match.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jun 30, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Look again!

I’m pretty sure they can.

by 52therim on Jun 30, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Oops. Not restricted...

it’s just that nobody believes that if you offer Ariza a deal somewhere over and above the MLE… the next phone call his agent makes isn’t to the Lakers saying that this is where the market to sign Trevor is at.

by 52therim on Jun 30, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions

I would take him...

but don’t we already have 3 small forwards??? It will be interesting to see how this offseason pans out….

by jenstcy on Jun 30, 2009 2:03 PM PDT reply actions

I imagine Batum would get shipped out, maybe in a trade for a PG

Martell probably doesn’t have a lot of value, coming off an injury. If we combine, Blake, Batum, Trout and maybe $2-5 million in cap space, we should be able to get a decent PG in return.

by ninjasocks on Jun 30, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Batum and Trout

for Rubio makes more sense to Minny than Bayless and Trout…

by teenagemutantninjabayless on Jun 30, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions

There are now three known ninjas on our board.

Yup, the only way we go after Ariza is if we’ve dropped Outlaw and Batum from pursuing something else entirely.

by staylost on Jun 30, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Keep Batum

Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge

by Derftron on Jun 30, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions

How about

Ship Webster, ship Outlaw, bring in Tariza, start him, back him up w/ Batum. That’d be killer.

by thetsaiguy on Jun 30, 2009 3:04 PM PDT reply actions

The Blazers are mentioned for every free agent

They’re a team on the rise with cap space.

Only knuckleheads like Shaq wouldn’t want to even consider playing here.

Check out the hoops hype rumor page and the like. Portland is rumored to be interested in just about every free agent. Is this true? Of course not. So who is saying otherwise? Agents, that’s who. Agents need to try and create a strong market for their players.

The reality is, most free agents are going to get the MLE, maximum, this off season. Only a couple guys will get more. Agents know this, and they try to create the illusion that there are many teams with cap room interested in their guys.

So are the Blazers really interested in Ariza? Who knows. Seems like he’s kinda like some guys we already got, but it’s possible.

by baduk on Jun 30, 2009 3:09 PM PDT reply actions

Sure

Portland is rumored to be interested in just about every free agent. Is this true? Of course not. So who is saying otherwise? Agents, that’s who. Agents need to try and create a strong market for their play

ers.

That was one of my first thoughts—that it was a bargaining tool by the agent. I don’t think that Ariza is going to leave LA, in all likelihood. This is a more a “Superman vs Mighty Mouse” type of what-if game.

Do we need to upgrade the SF position (and why are we mentioned in all the SF FA talk)? Is a $6 million per year investment in Ariza better than a similar investment in a PG and the further development of Batum? Etc

by ninjasocks on Jun 30, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Ariza and Hinrich would make me happy

by Rudy4three on Jun 30, 2009 3:42 PM PDT reply actions

Ohhhhhh man I would be a very happy Blazer Fan if that happened.

by dario argento on Jun 30, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Trades

Here is the camp that I am in.

Sign a small forward in free-agency. Either Ariza, Artest, or Hedo (in that order)

Then turn either Martell or Trout + Blake into a Heinrich / Andre Miller type.

I would lean towards Ariza because of his defense and his upside, and Heinrich because of his defense as well.

I am not so hot on Hedo because of how much he needs the ball and how that would affect Roy, LMA, & Gregs development.

But a lineup of…….
Heinrich / Bayless
Roy / Rudy
Ariza / Webster / Batum
LMA / Batum / Pendergraph
Greg / Joel

…..Looks pretty solid to me. The backup 4 would still be a question mark, but Lamarcus plays so many minutes I think we could slide in Batum or the Rookie and not get manhandled.

Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge

by Derftron on Jun 30, 2009 4:01 PM PDT reply actions

Getting Ariza would be huge. He would plug into our system seamlessly and improve our perimeter defense immediately.

Also, we would be foiling our main West competitor quite a lot. I think there is no way LA wins last year without Ariza. Get it done KP!

by dario argento on Jun 30, 2009 4:08 PM PDT reply actions

The problem is...

I don’t think he wants to leave L.A. anymore than they want to lose him. I don’t think he’s going anywhere. They’ll find a way to pay him.

An Oregonian in Texas.

by NoiseMekanik on Jun 30, 2009 9:50 PM PDT reply actions

3 FA SF that should be on our radar...

Ariza, Artest, Marvin Williams. And of those 3 Ariza is likely the most attainable.

One who should not be…
HEDOn’t

They don’t fit our needs as much as an improvement at PG (think Hinrich, Harris, Sessions) but they make more sense than overpaying a starting quality PF to backup LA and play 12 minutes a game. At least they would start and get significant minutes for the Blazers. Get a low cost option to backup LA!

by 52therim on Jun 30, 2009 10:16 PM PDT reply actions