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Come 7/1/2009, here's an estimated glance at the Portland Trail Blazers financial situation.

ACTIVE ROSTER

Joel Przybilla ($6,857,725)

LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,844,827)

Greg Oden ($5,361,240)

Martell Webster ($4,319,654)

Steve Blake ($4,000,000)

Brandon Roy ($3,910,816)

Travis Outlaw ($3,600,000)

Jerryd Bayless ($2,413,080)

Rudy Fernandez ($1,165,320)

Nicolas Batum ($1,118,760)

RELEASED

Darius Miles ($9,000,000)

CAP HOLDS

Raef LaFrentz ($18,928,700) {The Lower of Larry Bird w/ Previous Annual Salary Higher Than League Average Salary = Previous Salary X 150% or Maximum-Level Salary for Player w/ 10+ Tenured Seasons}

Channing Frye ($9,491,307) {Larry Bird Following Fourth Season of Rookie Scale Contract w/ Previous Annual Salary Lower Than League Average Salary = Previous Annual Salary X 300%}

Voshon Lenard ($7,040,000) {Larry Bird w/ Previous Annual Salary Lower Than League Average Salary = Previous Salary X 200%}

Detlef Schrempf ($2,860,000) {Early Bird = Previous Annual Salary X 130%}

Victor Claver ($1,012,900) {22nd Pick @ Rookie Scale}

Michael Ruffin ($825,497) {Minimum Salary = Portion of Minimum Salary not Reimbursed by NBA}

Shavlik Randolph ($825,497) {Minimum Salary = Portion of Minimum Salary not Reimbursed by NBA}

Luke Schenscher ($825,497) {Minimum Salary = Portion of Minimum Salary not Reimbursed by NBA}

Chris Dudley ($825,497) {Minimum Salary = Portion of Minimum Salary not Reimbursed by NBA}

Joel Freeland ($824,200) {30th Pick @ Rookie Scale}

Petteri Koponen ($824,200) {30th Pick @ Rookie Scale}

Jeff Pendergraph ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

Dante Cunningham ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

Patty Mills ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

Nedzad Sinanovic ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

Frederico Kammerichs ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

Marcelo Nicola ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

Doron Sheffer ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

EXCEPTIONS

Mid-Level Exception ($5,854,000)

Bi-Annual Exception ($1,990,000)

Trade Exception #1 ($2,912,823) {Ike Diogu}

Trade Exception #2 ($874,000) {Sergio Rodriguez}

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After the July moratorium, though, the Trail Blazers will need to clean house a bit by renouncing some cap holds and exceptions to get under the cap. So, in all likelihood, this is what the books will look like come 7/8/2009.

ACTIVE ROSTER

Joel Przybilla ($6,857,725)

LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,844,827)

Greg Oden ($5,361,240)

Martell Webster ($4,319,654)

Steve Blake ($4,000,000)

Brandon Roy ($3,910,816)

Travis Outlaw ($3,600,000)

Jerryd Bayless ($2,413,080)

Rudy Fernandez ($1,165,320)

Nicolas Batum ($1,118,760)

RELEASED

Darius Miles ($9,000,000)

CAP HOLDS

Victor Claver ($1,012,900) {22nd Pick @ Rookie Scale}

Joel Freeland ($824,200) {30th Pick @ Rookie Scale}

Petteri Koponen ($824,200) {30th Pick @ Rookie Scale}

Jeff Pendergraph ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

Dante Cunningham ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

Patty Mills ($0) {Second-Round Pick}

TOTAL

$49,982,722

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With that noted, here's my off-season plan as of this very moment.

TRANSACTION #1

Trade Steve Blake, the draft rights of Patty Mills, a 2010 second-round draft pick (i.e., the more favorable of the pick owed by Chicago and Portland's own pick), and $3,000,000 in cash considerations to the Chicago Bulls for Kirk Hinrich.

The new total salary would then be $55,482,722.

TRANSACTION #2

Sign Jeff Pendergraph to three-year, $2,550,000 contract (2009-2010: $800,000; 2010-2011: $850,000; 2011-2012: $900,000), with the third season non-guaranteed if he's waived before 7/1/2011.

The new total salary would then be $56,282,722.

TRANSACTION #3

Sign Dante Cunningham to a two-year, $1,219,783 contract (2009-2010: $457,588 & 2010-2011: $762,195), with the second season non-guaranteed if he's waived before 7/1/2010.

The new total salary would then be $56,740,310.

TRANSACTION #4A

Trade Travis Outlaw, the draft rights of Victor Claver, the draft rights of Joel Freeland, and the draft rights of Petteri Koponen to the Houston Rockets for Shane Battier.

The new total salary would then be $57,343,210.

TRANSACTION #4B

Trade Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, the draft rights of Joel Freeland, and the draft rights of Petteri Koponen to the Washington Wizards for Mike Miller.

The new total salary would then be $57,053,193.

TRANSACTION #5

Sign Robert Swift to a one-year, minimum-level contract.

TRANSACTION #6

Sign Anthony Carter to a one-year, minimum-level contract.

TRANSACTION #7*

Sign Ime Udoka to a one-year, minimum-level contract.

*Contingent on Transaction #4B occuring over Transaction #4A.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, that's that.

Comment 102 comments  |  11 recs  | 

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Robert Swift...

should be like transaction 1,000,000,000…

by Mr. Nation on Jun 29, 2009 9:31 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Ostensibly, Robert Swift is the only legitimate pivotman on the free-agent market who'd realistically ...

be available at a one-year, minimum-level contract. My personal preference would be to go after a veteran 7-footer with championship experience (e.g., Rasho Nesterovic) to provide depth behind Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla; though, the likelihood of the big Slovene signing here at a reduced price and limited playing time is next to nil.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

You should make your trades before you sign your 2nd round picks

It’s just smart business. Leaves more opportunities and cap space open, when you just may need it.

by as11osu on Jun 29, 2009 9:33 PM PDT reply actions  

I believe Jeff Pendergraph should receive a contract similar to what Joey Dorsey and Kyle Weaver ...

signed last season as high-end second-round picks, so that must be handled early on in the free agency period. In addition, I’d prefer to have both Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham — with the latter of whom I still think was a bad selection — under contract before summer league starts in Las Vegas.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not comfortable with Pendergraph in Frye's role

I don’t feel he’s going to be an upgrade in his rookie year AT ALL. You need to have a competent backup to LMA and you have even rid yourself of Outlaw as an option there in your offseason.

We have the assets to have a much better backup 4 than Pendergraph. Two things you need from an offseason that I don’t see are the small ball 4 (Outlaw or someone like him) and a banger with experience (since we didn’t get Blair).I don’t think we ever got under the cap by enough to use all our exceptions… did we?

by as11osu on Jun 29, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

If the Portland Trail Blazers clean house during the July moratorium, the organization should ...

have a salary cap number of $49,982,722 come 7/8/2009. So, depending on what the salary cap threshold is for the 2008-2009 season, the Trail Blazers will be roughly $8 million under it to start the free agency period.

Anyway, I agree the Dante Cunningham selection was a mistake — no matter DeJuan Blair being available at the 33rd pick, I’d’ve drafted Nick Calathes and stashed him in Greece for three years before ever selecting the craptastic Villanova graduate — however, you’re definitely way too harsh toward Jeff Pendergraph. Beyond Blair, Pendergraph and Taj Gibson were the guys I targeted as potential replacements for Channing Frye.

Besides, Brandon Bass is likely to re-sign with the Dallas Mavericks, Leon Powe is out for a long period with a torn ACL and meniscus in his left knee, and Paul Millsap and David Lee are way out of Portland’s price range.

At any rate, though, Pendergraph projects to be a taller version of Powe, which is a pretty solid skill set of efficient low-post scoring and solid man-to-man defense against opposing power forwards. However, Pendergraph’s face-up game on offense indeed needs vast improvement—especially if he’s going to play extended minutes alongside Joel Przybilla.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Richard Hendrix ($100,000)

rights is owned by GS but relegated to the Development League last year.

He did well there and has the size, skill-set, and desire needed as our backup PF.
I think we could buy/trade for him easily (and cheaply).

by spencerbutte on Jun 29, 2009 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Golden State Warriors released Richard Hendrix last season, so no team owns ...

his rights; though, the contract that Hendrix signed with Golden State last year was partially guaranteed for $100,000 during the 2009-2010 season.

Anyhow, while I’d rather give Hendrix a shot at the third-string power forward spot in lieu of Dante Cunningham, that seemingly isn’t the cards. Let it be known, though, that I think way more highly of Hendrix than Cunningham, who’ll probably be an outright bust.

by AK1984 on Jun 30, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Look for Dante Cunningham to make believers out of you guys in summer league. I expect him to look like the 2nd best player on that team.

by danielfarrell on Jun 30, 2009 3:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

you had me until

The trade with Houston, no way they trade Shane for Outlaw and some borderline scrubs. Even with the news about Yao, they won’t make a move yet, not until they do their homework and find out what is really going on.

And signing Robert Swift if just wrong, I know you feel the Blazers need a 3rd string center, but I disagree on personal reasons.

I also don’t like the idea of bringing back Udoka, he was okay during his previous stop here, but he is played out, even the Spurs don’t want him it appears.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 29, 2009 9:36 PM PDT reply actions  

If Houston isn't willing to part ways with Shane Battier, then I'd focus my attention on the criminally ...

underrated Mike Miller. Also, the only way I’d go after Ime Udoka is if Battier isn’t available from Houston at a reduced price — which, of course, would be due to the Yao Ming injury — since the PSU alum could be a great mentor and practice fodder for Nicolas Batum.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

You lose me on Mike Miller every time.

I’m actually sorry to say anything because you presumably well know my view and I have no wish to continually reject your plan.

Battier is a different story if he is attainable. Houston must be in mourning right now given the dire news on Yao’s foot.

ignacio

by ignacio on Jun 29, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

yes, I agree on Miller

AK1984-
would you care to elaborate on Miller. I know he’s a good shooter and rebounder, but he seems slow and not a great asset on defense

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jun 29, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

He’s an excellent passer with point forward ability. Though he isn’t a great man-on-man defender, he’s a pretty smart with team defense.

by Cablinasian on Jun 29, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here's the unbiased claim regarding why Mike Miller is a decent fallback option.

If Kevin Pritchard is looking to upgrade the offense at small forward off of the bench, then Mike Miller is the best realistic option. As I did earlier today, let me compare Miller to Hedo Turkoglu; yet, I’ll include usage percentage this time around to add another bit of perspective.

HEDO TURKOGLU (2008-2009 STATS)
Player Efficiency Rating: 14.8
Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: .115
True Shooting Percentage: 54.1%
Effective-Field Goal Percentage: 47.8%
Effective-Field Goal Percentage on Jump Shots: 45.8%
Fouls Drawn Per Field-Goal Attempt: 13.1%
Assist Percentage: 22.4%
Assists to Turnover Ratio: 1.83
Total Rebound Percentage: 8.2%
Blocked Shots Pecentage: 0.5%
Steals Percentage: 1.2%
Usage Percentage: 23.0%

MIKE MILLER (2008-2009 STATS)
Player Efficiency Rating: 13.8
Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: .270
True Shooting Percentage: 58.8%
Effective-Field Goal Percentage: 55.9%
Effective-Field Goal Percentage on Jump Shots: 52.3%
Fouls Drawn Per Field-Goal Attempt: 9.4%
Assist Percentage: 21.6%
Assists to Turnover Ratio: 2.25
Total Rebound Percentage: 12.0%
Blocked Shots Pecentage: 1.0%
Steals Percentage: 0.7%
Usage Percentage: 14.5%

At the length of one season for a price just under $10,000,000, Miller would provide the ying to Nicolas Batum’s yang at small forward. Moreover, unlike Hedo Turkoglu, Miller brings efficient shooting, proficient passing, and solid rebounding numbers — which make up somewhat for his slow man-to-man defense — with relatively small usage numbers that show he wouldn’t cut into Brandon Roy’s job as the team’s primary playmaker.

Of course, trading Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, and other assets for Miller would mean that the team must sign a third-string small forward who can provide strong man-to-man perimeter defense against guys like Ron Artest — since Batum is too scrawny and raw to handle those kind of players — yet, Ime Udoka or Quinton Ross could be brought in cheaply to fill that void.

Anyhow, my main goal would definitely be to trade for Shane Battier. Yet, if that isn’t possible at a fair price, then Miller would be my next target. While I’m not sure if the Washington Wizards would part with him so soon after acquiring his services, a guy like Outlaw would perfect fit that team’s defensively inept style as Antawn Jamison’s backup at power forward. Plus, Webster could fill the role Miller was set to play for the Wizards this season as Caron Butler’s backup at small forward.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

He also

has above average efficiency in terms of wins he created for the T-Wolves last season. Of course, switching him to SF would probably bring that efficiency down slightly.

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune

by Muad'Dib on Jun 29, 2009 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mike Miller ended the season with a WP48 of .270, too, which is and impressive ...

amount — albeit somewhat inflated due to him being graded as a shooting guard, as well as the manner in which Dave Berri greatly overrates the importance of defensive rebounds — yet, that notwithstanding, it’s pretty clear that Miller would be a better fit at small forward on offense for the Portland Trail Blazers than almost anyone else.

Still, I’d rather have Shane Battier or Gerald Wallace on the Trail Blazers for defensive purposes. Wallace, however, is nowadays entrenched with the Larry Brown coached Charlotte Bobcats, while Battier may be too tough to pry away from Daryl Morey’s cold, hard hands.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

I totally agree

Wallace would be my favorite SF we could acquire unless KP develops jedi mind trick powers and trades Outlaw for Lebron. Battier would be great too. I love his defense and leadership. He’d fit right in in Portland. But I think KP would most likely need to develop some jedi mind trick powers to get them too. Miller’s definitely one of the better realistic options and I like him a lot better than Turkeyglue.

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune

by Muad'Dib on Jun 29, 2009 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

thanks for the info

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jun 29, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Booo for Mike Miller

Yay for Battier (we can always dream) and Anthony Carter (did someone say “defensive-minded PG”?).

by ninjasocks on Jun 29, 2009 10:07 PM PDT reply actions  

The main reason why Shane Battier might be attainable is if the Houston Rockets want to clear cap ...

room come the summer of 2010. Since Tracy McGrady’s colossal contract is set to end after this season, Houston could be major players in free agency come next summer.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think we'd probably have to give up either a backup center or take back a nasty contract if we wanted that deal.

Battier is one of the few players who seems fairly secure in Houston.

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune

by Muad'Dib on Jun 29, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

If Daryl Morey wants Joel Przybilla for Shane Battier, then it's a total no-go on Portland's end.

Regarding bad contracts, I’d be alright with absorbing Brian Cook’s $3,500,000 expiring contract and sending out Dante Cunningham; however, the Portland Trail Blazers would lack enough cap space to have then traded for Kirk Hinrich. And, as far as I’m concerned, trading for Kirk Hinrich is the #1 priority and of the utmost importance.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd pull the trigger

on a trade of przy for battier. Przybilla is a more efficient player, but he’s kinda stuck behind Oden here. I’m not all that excited about Hinrich. I think I’d rather go after Sessions in a sign and trade or Conley. Maybe Nate Robinson.

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.—Dune

by Muad'Dib on Jun 29, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pryzbilla is too valuable.

Especially until Oden proves he can consistently play more than 30mpg and stay healthy/out of foul trouble, Pryzbilla is an incredible asset.

Plus we already have enough SFs and either Martell or Nic could end up with starter-caliber skills (I think Nic most likely). I don’t want Battier taking away too many minutes for Batum to develop.

IF we traded Outlaw for a solid backup big guy, then I would do that trade straight up. But as things are, I think the difference between Pryzbilla and whoever else we’d get is greater than the difference between Batum and Battier, especially looking a year or two down the line.

(I think Pryz led us in WP48 this last year too.)

by austinpwnz on Jun 30, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

didnt i just read today

that hou offered battier and brooks for rubio?

fire nate before its too late

by pipgras on Jun 29, 2009 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

then..

why are people saying battier isnt available?

fire nate before its too late

by pipgras on Jun 29, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, Ricky Rubio has a boatload of trade value.

It’s conceivable that the Houston Rockets wouldn’t trade Shane Battier to the Portland Trail Blazers unless someone like Joel Przybilla was included in the deal, which’d be a no-go from Kevin Pritchard’s end. Przybilla, without question, is an important cog in the Trail Blazers machine.

The hope, however, is Travis Outlaw’s expiring contract — along with some sweetners — would be enough to intice Daryl Morey to trade Battier; yet, ‘cause Outlaw is the total antithesis of a Morey-esque player, it’s an unlikely scenario.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

TOEC!

Nope, doesn’t have the same ring to it as RLEC.

by austinpwnz on Jun 30, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

ask any nuggets fan

anthony carter is the worst player with an nba contract in the history of the game.

last year i once watched him shoot a corner jumper that actually hit the basket support.
he missed that jump shot by close to twelve feet.

dinasour type of guys choir boys

by mittsabishy on Jun 29, 2009 10:38 PM PDT reply actions  

Minutes for Battier, Miller, Batum and Rudy?

First disclaimer: I don’t think Webster currently has trade value

The big problem I see with bringing in Battier is the minute crunch at the wing position. You’ve attempted to alleviate that by dealing Travis and Martell (see disclaimer #1) but then adding Miller rejams the wing minutes. For Rudy to get adequate PT, Roy has to slide to SF.

So I don’t see Shane coming onboard, unless Outlaw and one of Rudy/Batum are leaving (again, refer to disclaimer #1)

by two4larue on Jun 29, 2009 10:41 PM PDT reply actions  

Trading for Mike Miller would be a fallback option if Shane Battier isn't attainable from the Houston ...

Rockets. At any rate, the mintues per game situation would be Brandon Roy (32), Battier/Miller (24), Rudy Fernandez (24), and Nicolas Batum (16). Lastly, I also think Martell Webster has basically no trade value; yet, he’d just be filler in a deal for Miller, as Travis Outlaw would be the main piece going to Washington.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess it's not as big a deal in a trade

But that’s a cut in PT of about 10mpg for either Miller or Battier.

I almost feel the same way about this as I would if we signed David Lee or Paul Millsap – we’d be under-utilizing whoever we get.

by austinpwnz on Jun 30, 2009 2:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

My favorite move...
TRANSACTION #6

Sign Anthony Carter to a one-year, minimum-level contract.

I think a move or something like it would be very wise for the Blazers.

by PoliSam on Jun 29, 2009 10:46 PM PDT reply actions  

No

Kirk Hinrich – Don’t need
Shane Battier – Couldn’t get
Mike Miller – To Much Money, To Much to give up
as for the minimum level contract guys – Blah

Draft Cole Aldrich 2010

by jlarose78 on Jun 29, 2009 10:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Meh, I still think the Los Angeles Clippers should just do a straight salary dump of Chris Kaman ...

to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Earl Watson and Chucky Atkins. For the Houston Rockets, the best move would be to go after Tyson Chandler of the New Orleans Hornets. A Tracy McGrady for Chandler and Antonio Daniels swap would do the trick.

by AK1984 on Jun 29, 2009 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

What happened to Kaman anyway?

He was an up-and-comer his first few years. Why did he fall off a cliff?

by MiledAnimal on Jun 30, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think anything happened to him.

Other than getting injured this past season.

I think the reason some people are talking about dealing Kaman is because the Clips have a bit of a log jam at the C/PF spot, with Camby, Kaman, Randolph and Griffin. Camby is the cheapest, but he only has this year left on his deal. Who would trade for Zach, particularly with his contract? That leaves Kaman.

Personally, I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in rumors about his being traded. Writers and fans look at rosters and saleries and try to act like junior GM’s. The writers do it because they have to write about something if they want a job. The fans do it because – well who knows, because it’s fun for them. I would think that Kaman (assuming he’s healthy) and Griffin are two nice building blocks. Bite the bullet with Zach for this season and then perhaps you can trade him the following year to a team looking to clear $17 mil off their books.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jun 30, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Clips will have a strong front line

if Kaman returns to his previous form and Griffin develops as expected. They’ll have to endure Zach’s contract and presence until the 2011 trade deadline, which is the soonest I would expect any team looking for cap relief would be interested in him.

I’m curious to see how Zach responds to Griffin’s arrival. It will be the second time he finds himself being shoved aside for a younger heir apparent.

by MiledAnimal on Jun 30, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Those are players that retired but never handed in their official papers to the NBA, and unsigned draft picks

Their last team can still hold their rights, like a restricted free agent. It’s hard to track though, since some might have been waived during some house cleaning that wasn’t reported. And usually a player gets taken off the record one year after his last pro contract ended (which e.g. would be the case for Marcelo Nicola). According to some sites AK’s info is correct, but as I said it’s hard to know the exact contract situation for a team.

by Norsktroll on Jun 30, 2009 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good info.

You don’t dissapoint do you? Rec for you good sir.

* Building a Greg Oden Fanboy Treehouse Clubhouse this summer...

by OdenFanBoy on Jun 30, 2009 12:42 AM PDT reply actions  

Two things, AK1984

First, Portland did not lose Bird rights on Channing Frye when they decided not to tender a qualifying offer to him. He will be an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights tomorrow. It doesn’t really affect your plan since you have Frye being renounced anyway, but just thought you’d want to know.

Secondly, Pendergraph, Cunningham and Mills do not have to sign their full contract in order to participate in Summer League. Portland can sign them to a non-guaranteed
‘summer contract’ which allows them to get insurance.

I think you’re giving up too many prospects for Battier, but other than that it’s not a bad plan.

by Storyteller on Jun 30, 2009 6:44 AM PDT reply actions  

Man, I can't wait for summer league

I’m still replaying the final win in the playoffs.

I’d like to see how Bayless runs this team. I also want to see how fast this Mills guy is.

by parkinglotj on Jun 30, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

You and me both

With all the Blazer games being held either in the evening or on the weekend, I should be able to catch them all.

$25 × 5days = $125. Yeah, that’s very doable.

Unless I want to pay $500 for courtside seats. Let’s see…$500 for courtside seats, $125 for 2nd row seats…

by Storyteller on Jun 30, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Can you check on the accuracy of my post below?

I’m looking at the Blazer’s roster in the summer of 2010 and seeing where they could possibly have twice the cap space space as they do this summer.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jun 30, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

where's it at?

I can’t find it

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

possible, but depends on 3 things:

1) amount of extension Roy gets
2) amount of extension LMA gets
3) whether or not Joel opts out.

Assume Roy gets the max (estimate at 13,250,000 for 10-11).
Assume LMA gets a deal starting at 11,000,000

Then our cap numbers are such:
~51,250,000 if Joel does NOT opt out (about MLE level under cap)
~44,300,000 if Joel does opt out (about 12-13 million under cap)

This assumes we add NO players this year on more than 1-year deals and will require us to renounce bird rights for Blake, Travis, and Joel next summer. Seems fairly risky just to get into a bidding war for 2010 free agents, when the competition for players will be fierce.

We are in a buyer’s market this summer. Next summer could be a seller’s (players) market.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

I suspect you have the numbers for Roy and Aldridge too high.

I am not positive about this, but I believe it makes a difference if you extend a player, verses if you offer him the qualifying offer and then sign a new contract. I don’t think Portland can go from $5 point something mil (his qualifying offer) to $13 mil in one season.

As for risk, the only real risk is losing Joel.

As for the type of market next season – who knows. I would say that when the market is full of product, it can be a buyers market just as easily as it could be a seller’s market.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jun 30, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

if brandon gets a max offer

which is a safe bet, his 1st year will be 25% of the cap. CP3s is estimated at 13.75 million, so BRoy’s will likely be just a tad less than that.

I just made up the number for LMA, being a near-max deal, but not actually getting the max

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with douglast

Those are the numbers (or something close to that) I expect to see in extensions for Roy and Aldridge.

Raises of that magnitude are absolutely allowed by the CBA since the Blazers have full Bird Rights on both of them.

by Storyteller on Jun 30, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Okay, I wasn't quite sure how that worked with Channing Frye being non-tendered a qualifying offer.

Either way, though, it’s pretty much a given that Frye will be renounced by the ballclub early on next month.

That’s also a good point about non-guaranteed summer league contracts, although I still expect that Jeff Pendergraph will sign a contract that dips slightly into the salary cap space.

by AK1984 on Jun 30, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ya

to sign Brandon Bass we’ll need to renounce his rights….

baZing

by as11osu on Jun 30, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Assuming the Battier option.

These moves would certainly improve our defense without sacrificing our offense too much. Outlaw’s bench production will be harder to fill with this lineup, unless Webster comes back well. I’m not excited about Miller, but I wouldn’t sneeze at him and his girly hair. :p I wouldn’t give up quite that much to get him personally.

Don’t know what Battier’s price tag is going to be though. I’m sure there are a few teams willing to pick him up, which may drive up the price. And if we don’t offer enough, Houston is likely just to say, “No thank you.”

μὴ φοβοῦ, μόνον πίστευε.

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by T Darkstar on Jun 30, 2009 7:35 AM PDT reply actions  

Will someone let me know if I am reading into this correctly...

Does Oden and Aldridge make more than Roy because they were higher draft picks???

Greg Oden - The only other rookie with more than 500 points, 400 rebounds, and 65 blocks in under 1400 minutes played. Since 1946

by FiveOhThree-RipCity!! on Jun 30, 2009 8:46 AM PDT reply actions  

yes

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thought so, thanks for verifying....

So this means that Michael Jordan made less than Sam Bowie his first three years???

Greg Oden - The only other rookie with more than 500 points, 400 rebounds, and 65 blocks in under 1400 minutes played. Since 1946

by FiveOhThree-RipCity!! on Jun 30, 2009 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

When did it start?

Sorry, I have about a bazillion questions on salary and cap rules. But I’ll take it one at a time.

Greg Oden - The only other rookie with more than 500 points, 400 rebounds, and 65 blocks in under 1400 minutes played. Since 1946

by FiveOhThree-RipCity!! on Jun 30, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

don't recall exactly

but somewhere in the late 90s or early 00s

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

consider me underwhelmed

if the whole cap space 2009 plan we’ve been sold for the past 2 plus years ends up in a trade for Kirk Hinrich and a 2nd move for Battier or Miller, consider me highly disappointed. Not saying they aren’t upgrades, just saying I consider those moves second rate at best.

First off, there is NO way that any of the 2nd rounders get contract offers before we are done making FA/trade moves. That’s just bad business.

Second off, even if Houston is willng to part with Battier (which they may or may not), I don’t think they are going to give him away for Outlaw and some Eurostash. Yes, they offered him and Brooks for Rubio, but Outlaw, nor any of the Euros, are anywhere near Rubio value.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 8:47 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I'd have to agree

I’m waiting for a big move… hasn’t KP alluded to a very big move for more than two years? These moves are OK, but like you said — underwhelmed.

by parkinglotj on Jun 30, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

If it's possible to do better, I would love it.

I just don’t see a lot of really high quality players available for the price we are able to pay. I like this move better than getting Jefferson, Carter or Shaq, which is all we’ve seen so far, as far as big names are concerned. What makes this series of trade appealing to me is addressing our weaknesses while not giving up our strengths.

A big splash? No, not at all. But it does reasonable shape the team to be even better for some years to come. I’d be happy with this scenario. If KP can do better, I’ll be even happier.

μὴ φοβοῦ, μόνον πίστευε.

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by T Darkstar on Jun 30, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

underwhelmed by Battier and Hinrich? That combo immediately makes us one of the best defensive teams in the league, and teamed with our vaunted offensive efficiency….. legitimate shot at the 2010 title.

by Cablinasian on Jun 30, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

well

mostly alluding do Hinrich. if he’s our big catch this summer, then yes, I will be very underwhelmed. there is no way we get Battier for the parts mentioned, so I’m not even banking on that as a realistic possibility. Morey won’t give him up for a salary dump, he will want at least one of Batum, Rudy, or Bayless, plus an Outlaw type.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hinrich

looking less and less available. If the Pistons do indeed sign Ben Gordon, I don’t think the Bulls move Hinrich at all. Which is just 100% fine with me.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 8:48 AM PDT reply actions  

I don't think Gordon signs with the Pistons

I don’t really see how he fits with Stuckey and Hamilton. Hamilton and Curry apparently have severe problems with each other, so maybe Hamilton is going to be moved. Other than that, doesn’t this just recreate many of the problems with AI they had this past year?

The Bulls should keep Gordon and move Hinrich, or else move both and try and find a better fit opposite Rose.

by matthewcc on Jun 30, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Chad Ford just reported the Pistons fired Curry

Don’t know how that will impact possible free agent signings.

Man-slave, bring me my PB&J!

by wjb1492 on Jun 30, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

For those that want Kidd

It appears as though he wants to be a Knick according to Sportcenter

by We-B-Dunkin on Jun 30, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions  

well

we can pay more than NY, and we have a much better team. just ‘cause he is going there first doesn’t make it a done deal. I’d see him back in Dallas before NY, but I guess it depends on his motives. then again, NY will play an up tempo free wheeling style that he should enjoy, so you never know

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

everyone wants to be a Knick

according to Sportscenter. Or a L@ker.

These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx

by RDreamer on Jun 30, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Has anyone considered the possibility that Portland can do nothing this summer ...

… and still be positioned to be a big player in the FA market of 2010?

After this season, the contracts of Miles, Outlaw and Blake come off the books. Aldridge and Roy have team qualifying offers, as does Joel. Assuming that Portland signs the first two to extensions this year, they would bypass the whole 300% caphold hurdle on them. Does anyone seeing such extensions adding more than $8,000,000 to what LaMarcus and Roy are already on the books for next year? That leaves Joel’s $7.5 million deal. Correct me if I am wrong, but if Portland does not give a qualifying offer, doesn’t Joel become an unrestricted FA? If so, then he does not count against the cap.

That should give Portland roughly $16.5 million in cap room, minus any new contracts they add this summer (or at the trade dealine).

This means losing Blake, Outlaw and Pryzbilla after this season (or does it?). But a lot of you are all for trading Blake and Outlaw anyway. And, it does not necessarily mean we would lose all or any of these guys.

Let’s start with Joel. He likes playing in Portland. Were he to know that Portland intended to re-sign him we could likely do so by combining the mid-level and veteran’s exemptions, in the event we go over the cap. Blake also likes both playing here and living here. There is a good chance for him to stick around unless some team offers him a deal too good to turn down. And if that happens, it will likely be due to his performance this coming season, which means we just resign him and not worry about cap space.

The way I see it, Prichard can give his team another year to grow and still have options to make a big change come next summer (or even at that Feb trade deadline). This way, he can see if Bayless really can be the PG for this team. He can see how Rudy and Nic progress their sophmore seasons. He gets to see if Martell is once again healthy and if he’s ready to take off. When you have a 54 win team with 4 rookies and no starter over 30, you do not have to make any major changes. I would argue that you would only do so if presented with an opportunity that was just too good to pass up.

So tell me, how many of those are there? Adding Hinrich and Battier at the cost of Blake, Outlaw and some rights to draft picks (or even with a couple future picks thrown in as well) sounds like one. And as much as I love Steve Blake and like Travis, I wouldn’t say no to this deal. The only problem I see is how do you get Hinrich and Battier for Blake and Outlaw?

And forget about Mike Miller. No way does Miller justify Travis and Martell, with or without the throw-ins of Koponen and Freeland.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jun 30, 2009 11:29 AM PDT reply actions  

It has been considered by others

But I, for one, remain unconvinced that it is an option. As for your post, you’ve got a few factual errors and a few (IMO) unrealistic expectations that make your proposal a lot less likely:

1) Aldridge and Roy can each make the maximum amount starting in 2010-11. The maximum for them will probably be at least $13 million. Now even if LMA doesn’t take a maximum extension, the total raise in salary for those two players will easily be closer to $14 million than to the $8 million you are suggesting.

2) Przybilla cannot get and does not need to get a qualifying offer. He has a player option for 2010-11 that will absolutely count against the cap if it is exercised. Is there a chance that it isn’t exercised? Yes. But even then, he’ll count against the cap as a FA, unless you want to simply waive him and lose Bird rights. I think that most believe that he’ll be a Blazer in 2010-11 after picking up his player option.

3) You refer to the idea of combining exceptions to be able to offer a player more money than would be possible using just one option. Impossible. Cannot be done. You also refer to having cap space and also using the MLE. Again, impossible. Cannot be done. If Portland is under the cap in the summer of 2010, then they lose their ability to use the MLE or the BAE in the 2010-11 season.

4) Are you also accounting for the cap holds of Claver, Freeland, Koponen and 2010’s 1st round pick? I don’t know because I’m not sure exactly how you’re getting that $16.5 million figure. Are you also accounting for the prediction that the salary cap not only goes down this summer but also next summer as well?

timg56, it’s a nice idea, given the types of FA’s that appear will be available next summer. But, given Portland’s situation, I don’t see any chance of it happening. 2009 is the summer for KP to add to the team. I believe strongly that the time for player evaluations is over for many players and that decisions need to be made as to whether or not they belong. The Blazers have been positioning themselves to make moves this summer, and I think they’ll take advantage of that during the next couple of months.

by Storyteller on Jun 30, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I concur. see my post above.

if Joel opts out, best case is we can clear about 12 million. But this requires us renouncing pretty much everything. and we will be competing against a LOT of teams with that much or more space.

seems VERY risky to me

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks.

I knew I had several unknowns, the biggest being how much of a raise Aldridge and Roy could get. I also didn’t know that the HoopsHype listing errorenously listed Joel has having a qualifying offer. When I think about it, that doesn’rt make sense.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jun 30, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

To my eye, we have two major needs, with a third minor one:

(1) A starting-quality point guard, either for now or the future
(2) A back-up power forward
(3) A starting-quality small forward

I had been approaching this puzzle as attempting to solve these three holes in chronological order, but I had a thought earlier today which may open up the way for all three to fall into place. Indulge me…

Trevor Ariza will be an unrestricted FA, making around $3 Mil/year. With our approximately $7.5 million in cap space, we could afford to offer him a raise to $5 million or so. This serves two purposes: it gives us a clear-cut starter at the 3, and opens up some of our other projects to be traded.

Once we have done this, we should have about $2.5 million left in cap space. This is about the perfect amount to offer to a veteran backup power forward. I was thinking McDyess. The arguments for him have been outlined numerous times, so I won’t rehash them here, but I think for that price, and the chance to be on a good young team, he would jump at the opportunity.

All of which brings us to the first item on our list: a starting-quality point guard. Now that the cap space has been used up, we are left to acquire this player through a trade. I believe now that we are at the cap, the 125% rule kicks in, which helps match salaries nicely, though I am more than happy to be corrected by folks more educated on the cap. The bottom line is that signing Ariza opens up other SF’s not named Outlaw to be traded. There have been many Travis+Bayless for Rubio+filler posts, but I simply don’t find those realistic. Now, if we included Batum, suddenly I find the possibilities of acquiring the Spanish phenom much more realistic. Some package of Outlaw/Batum/Blake may be just enough to pry away Rubio, while still keeping Rudy, who would be incredibly fun to watch playing together again! I would propose:

Outlaw
Batum
Blake

for

Rubio
Etan Thomas

All these changes would leave us with a depth chart of:

PG: Bayless/Rubio (The fight for minutes sure would be fun)
SG: Roy/Rudy
SF: Ariza/Webster
PF: Aldridge/McDyess/Pendergraph
C: Oden/Pryzbilla

Of course, this is just one option of the routes we could take this summer. I think this gives us enough of a change to continue our upward growth of the past few years, while still not being a complete overhaul of the roster. What do you think? Is this reasoning sound? Would you be happy to see this roster on opening day?

by teenagemutantninjabayless on Jun 30, 2009 3:52 PM PDT reply actions  

not bad

the PG spot would be scary as heck for a year or so, but maybe we have enough talent elsewhere to make up for it while those two guys grow on the job.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I'm David Kahn, I'd demand both Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez in any trade involving Ricky ...

Rubio. Kahn would probably demand Jerryd Bayless, too, although y’all probably know by now I’m likely the biggest hater of his on here.

Anyway, Ricky Rubio isn’t walking through those doors. I, for one, wouldn’t want to see Nate McMillan ruin the kid, while it’s also unlikely the Spanish sensation would even agree to come to the Pacific Northwest..

by AK1984 on Jun 30, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

it certainly brings up an interesting point

Nate’s style of ball – slow, deliberate, low-error ball, while certainly proving to be effective, is hardly enticing to potential trade or free agent acquisitions, and even some current players. It does make you wonder if this ultimately could lead to our inabiity to acquire (or retain) the final piece or two necessary to get over the top.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few years.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Jun 30, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

While we are by no means on their level (yet)

San Antonio plays a slow, deliberate ballgame and they seem to find themselves as an attractive destination. Winning fixes everything.

by teenagemutantninjabayless on Jun 30, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

did you really??

just compair nate a 9 year coach with 370 wins and 375 losses, and only 3 trips to the playoffs to Gregg Popovich a 13 year coach with 788 wins and 393 losses who has missed the playoffs once and won 4 championships? the question was about the coaches playing style, which is nothing like san antonios, unless i missed all the games where tony parker passed to Roger Mason and Manu Ginóbili at half court and they created everything while tony parker stood at the 3 point line and watched.

fire nate before its too late

by pipgras on Jul 1, 2009 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

did you really??

Think she/he by saying both teams play slow was a comparison of the coaches careers?

by tominhawaii on Jul 1, 2009 4:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

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