But of course it was all conjecture. Of course KP and his staff have an infinite amount more data than we have at their disposal. Of course their decision was probably right. And of course it will likely be a year or more before we know with any certainty.

But what would be the fun of being fans if we didn’t engage in this kind of second-guessing and speculation?

Just a comment about knees. Assuming Blair’s problems only involve his ACL’s (or lack of same), not damage to his articular cartilage: we’re not likely talking about issues that could “blow out his legs forever.” Back in the day, an ACL rupture was a career-ending injury. (I had that injury, and it certainly ended my pick-up game career!) But those days are long gone.

Even if Blair faced the worst-case scenario—the need to have ACL reconstructions done on both his knees—nowadays you’re just looking at a 6 to 9 month window for surgery and rehab. Guys routinely come back from ACL reconstructions in less than a full year and are able to perform at 90-100% of their pre-injury level. In the case of DeJuan Blair, that means you’d still have a devastating offensive rebounder on your squad that you only spent a #31 or #33 pick on.

This is why I look for alternative explanations as to why our genius GM may have passed on this guy with those second round picks. E.g., maybe for once KP was unprepared for an opportunity that fell in his lap—like that trout who lets a delicious meal pass over his head because he’s zeroed in on another food item.

If so, then I think you could turn out to be correct. That actually was another theory I floated in the wake of the Blair free-fall.

Of course, I have exactly zero evidence to support that theory. And even if Blair is a user, he’s certainly got plenty of company in the NBA, seeing as there’s apparently NO TESTING GOING ON.

God, this is sure to come back to bite the NBA, and probably sooner rather than later. But yeah, just because others are using doesn’t mean we want to stock the Blazers’ line-up with juicers. Because when the inevitable crackdown arrives, those guys will shrink like deflated balloons.

I never questioned KP’s decision to pass on Blair in the first round. If there were serious concerns about his knees, it makes sense to fear offering him a guaranteed contract. But second round contracts are not guaranteed, so if you get the guy into camp and summer league and serious problems emerge, you’ve just wasted a draft pick.

As for the fact we didn’t hear anything about Claver being one of the Blazers’ targets, HELLO!! Have you been paying attention? Our brilliant GM isn’t exactly in the habit of broadcasting to the world who he’s really interested in. It’s called misdirection, and KP is a master of it. He’s NEVER indicated in advance who he was after—even when he had the frigging #1 pick in the draft!

Sorry to give you a hard time on that one, but come on!

…what if we drafted DeJuan and he plaid great, so good he becomes a starter. Then we sign him to a big contract and the next season his knees blow up. He’s hurt, but not bad enough to call it a career ending injury so we’re still responsible for the contract. blair comes back, but is never as good as he once was. That would suck.
If not, if he comes in and just plays an average 10-12 minutes per game as a career back-up, then you really can’t call him “the big fish who got away” regardless who he was passed up for. One step further, say he ends up starting next to Tim Duncan next year and puts up big numbers and y’all start hooting and hollering. Just try to keep in mind that he would not have had the same opportunities in Portland playing behind LA that he will get next year playing behind Matt Bonner or Drew Gooden.

Backup PF’s getting 8-12 minutes a night are rarely big fish.

I’d say KP is not a high risk-high reward type. He wanted Chris Paul, not Telfair.

But it fits enough situations often enough that ol’ William of Occam should be proud. I think you’re right that this is one of those situations.

But you’ll have to run this one by me again, Knickfan. First you say that it’s “laughable” to suggest that KP might have made a mistake in not factoring into his calculations Blair’s wildly improbable fall from #11 to the second round. (This despite McMillen’s statement that seems to suggest just that.) But then you say that KP is not immune from making mistakes and that it’s entirely possible that Blair will “go on to have a significantly better career than any of the three players selected by Portland.”

Sorry, but I’m not following. KP is human. He may conceivably have blown it this time. We can say that. It ain’t sacrilege. He can be a genius but still be capable of a boneheaded error. It happens, you know. It may have happened this time—or not. But it’s not laughable to wonder.

To my knowledge, only one person has walked on water. And there’s a few that aren’t too sure about Him. (Oh, God, now I’ll start a religious sub-thread!!)