I expect Hinrich and Blake will make a dynamite duo; 48 minutes from hell. Chicago will take Outlaw for Hinrich because they can save 5 mil in cap space and with Outlaw and Salmons they finally, finally feel confident to trade Luol the disappointment Deng. Further, we can acquire Hedo without a trade leaving us free to sign and trade Fry + cash for Turiaf. It looks like this:

Oden/Przybilla
Aldredge/Turiaf
Hedo/Webster/Batum
Roy/Fernandez
Hinrich/Blake/Bayless

This lineup covers any injury time and will be solid for the next 3-4 barring trades. The guards and small fowards are completely interchangeable as are the bigs. This is a championship caliber team.

Has anyone mentioned the idea of making Blake a player / assistant coach, trading Outlaw and whatever for Hinrich and using Bayless as 2nd string while we develop Mills. I know it would use up an extra slot for a fourth point guard but it might be just the inducement Blake would need to go to the bench as the veteran emergency backup. Then maybe pick up Bass or Mcdyce as a free agent and we have a really great lineup for next year.

Whether Mills blows up or not, chances are KP and Nate Mac will stick with giving backup minutes to Bayless this year.

The analysis on Mills is somewhat skewed because he asked to be the main distributor, scorer, and playmaker for St. Mary’s. His efficiency numbers will be far less superior to a Lawson or a Collison because they weren’t asked to do as much as Patty on offense. Watching him play this year, he certainly acted as a scoring PG, but I believe that surrounded with better talent around him, he can settle into a true PG role easier than Bayless. Take away the first game in the Olympics this year, Mills blew up for the Australian team. I think he can do the same for the Blazers, although I have to admit that it will take time to adjust to the more half-court oriented style of the Blazers.

Acquiring Hinrich is based on the notion that Chicago needs cap space to resign Gordon and Deng. Trading Hinrich is one of the most obvious way for Chicago to create that space. The idea is that Outlaw and Blake both have non-guaranteed contracts for next year. We can either trade one of them and spare parts (perhaps a sign and trade of Frye?) and that would create enough cap space for them, or we could trade both, and Chicago could renounce one of the two to create space. If Chicago trades Hinrich, they will need a back-up for Rose. Blake would be a very good candidate for that role. In other words, Chicago is likely to want either Blake or Bayless in return for Hinrich.

Choosing to keep Blake over Bayless seems remarkably short sighted. Blake is 28, and likely at his peak. He is likely to start declining some time in the next few years. He already struggles to defend the new bread of ultra-quick PGs. His defensive problems are only likely to worsen over the next few years. I would be willing to bet that Bayless will be a better defender by the All-Star break.

Blake is clearly a better outside shooter and a more efficient distributor on the offensive end. But Bayless has enormous potential as a multi-threat scorer. Many folks seem to be forgetting who Bayless is: the guy was a McDonald’s All-American; a three time Arizona prep player of the year; one of the top PG recruits in the nation to “PG University.” He was expected to go between 4-8 in last year’s draft. It was a minor miracle we got him at 11. He was the Summer League MVP. He was selected along with Roy, LMA, and GO as one of the top thirty young players in the country to be on the Team USA development team.

If Bayless had spent another year in college, he likely would have been one of the top five picks in this years draft. We would all be drooling if KP had managed to draft him. You do not trade away a 20 year old with that kind of potential in order to keep a 28 year old journeyman. You do not even consider making that kind of move.

I may be a bit optimistic, but I would put the odds of Bayless being better than Blake within the next two years at 80%, and I would put the odds of him being much , much better at about 50%. He needs to play. If you get Hinrich, Blake goes. Hinrich does what Blake does only better. If you can’t get Hinrich, you may decide to keep Blake as the starter until Bayless demonstrates that he is ready to start. But trading Bayless or burying him on the bench would be extremely short sighted.

Frankly, I’m a bit tired of Blake being the whipping boy. He only had the best season of his career, played exactly the kind of hard-nosed ball the team needed, and basically did everything he was asked to do. If we bring Hinrich in, that’s fine. But Bayless is far from ready, in my humble opinion. And I think we’d win several more games in 09-10 with Blake as starter while my man Oden indeed becomes a force and someone like Brandon Bass — and maybe even Pendergraph — provides an additional inside presence. What we most need from our PG is 3 pt shooting, something Blake is becoming rather good at. I won’t cry at all if he starts next year and I’d like to think Blazer fans are behind him. I happen to think Blazer management is!