Ranking the Point Guards Using BE Metrics

by JasonT on Jun 27, 2009 9:15 AM PDT Comment 22 comments

I thought since John Hollinger can come up with his own metrics well then so can we. Here's how this works: Rank your top 10 point guards (best to worst), then rank them by cost, meaning what it's going to take to get them (cheapest to highest). Add all the numbers up for each player. The player or players with the lowest number is first on your priority list. Of course, as with Hollinger's PER you have to take common sense into account. But try it and see what you get.

Here's mine:

Top 10:

1. Chris Paul

2. Deron Williams

3. Tony Parker

4. Rajon Rondo

5. Devin Harris

6. Chauncey Billups

7. Derrick Rose

8. Rodney Stuckey

9. Steve Nash

10. Andre Miller

Cost (what it would cost the Blazers to get the player):

1. Andre Miller

2. Steve Nash

3. Rodney Stuckey

4. Rajon Rondo

5. Devin Harris

6. Chauncey Billups

7. Tony Parker

8. Derrick Rose

9. Deron Williams

10. Chris Paul

Rajon Rondo (8), Devin Harris (10), Tony Parker (10), Chris Paul (11), Deron Williams (11), Rodney Stuckey (11), Steve Nash (11), Andre Miller (11), Chauncey Billups (12), Derrick Rose (15)

Right away I would eliminate Tony Parker, CP3, DWill, Billups and Rose...as those guys are pretty much unattainable. Which leaves us with a pretty good prioritzed list:

1. Rondo

2. Harris

3. Stuckey

4. Nash

5. Miller

Go and get it done Pritchard!

I'm sure you all will come up with your own numbers. Give it try and see what you get.

And yes, I know this feels a little like coming up with your porn name...by the way mine is Sam 21. But hopefully it's moderately more insightful.

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Comments

Interesting

Of course, fit is important, too.

I think you have Billups and Rose too low.

I think we get Miller, but I would be happier with Harris. Just don’t see it happening.

by LaoTzu on Jun 27, 2009 9:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Billups was a little lower due to age

Rose due to fit. He reminds me of Dwayne Wade a lot. I wouldn’t mind having Rose at all…I would be ecstatic. I just think for Portland the other guys ahead of him might fit a little better…but it’s definitely debateable.

by JasonT on Jun 27, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd put Harris and Billups

above Rondo… but other than that I agree.

by In Walks Rudy on Jun 27, 2009 9:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Harris >>> Rondo, not based on Hollinger, but based on Rajon’s toxic intangibles

by two4larue on Jun 27, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Somebody

please put together a realistic way of getting Harris. I just dont see it. Unless we give up Outlaw, Bayless, Batum AND Rudy, why would NJ give up one of the most coveted PG in the game?

by bad karma on Jun 27, 2009 10:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I've done it a few times

But here goes

First, we’re assuming that NJ wants to clear as much cap-space as possible, heading into next summer’s FA period. They just dealt Carter, and the largest remaining contract on their books is Harris. Rumor was they were shopping Harris before the draft, in hopes of moving into the top 5. Who did they want? Jaynes and Quick thought that they might want Rubio, who they could “sell” Ricky to their fans next season, while playing a bunch of low-priced kids (along with Lopez) and biding their time before making a huge splash in 2010 free agency. We’re talking about then having the room to sign LBJ, Wade, and Bosh.

So with that as the backdrop, here’s my proposal:

The Blazers send Outlaw, Blake, Rudy and the rights to Victor Claver to NJ for Harris, and one or several of the following Nets players with non-expiring contracts.

Keyon Dooling, Yi Jianlian, Eduardo Najera, Josh Boone, Sean Williams or perhaps Courtney Lee

(I’m not going to take the time to discuss dollars, because Portland will be under the cap, and the salaries won’t have to match, anyway. If you want to review their salaries, go to storyteller’s website)

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/09-10salaries.htm

Again, this is not as much about talent as saving NJ money. (Well, it is about Harris’ talent, he would be awesome in a Blazer uniform, truly the last “piece” of their championship puzzle!)

The other nice thing about putting Oultlaw and Blake’s combined 7.6 mil expiring contracts into this deal is that (depending on how many of those Net contracts KP would have to accept, if any) the Blazers would still have room under the cap left over to pursue a pretty nice FA big man. How would getting Harris and Bass sound? Or McDyess? (I like Jeff Foster, but that’s another trade altogether)

So yeah, I realize I’m making a lot of assumptions, but they are based on New Jersey’s recent behavior and the well-known lure of the upcoming 2010 FA period. Don’t “write off” Devin Harris as being untouchable, that’s all I’m saying. The Nets may have much bigger “fish” in mind, next summer

To conclude, here’s a potential Blazer depth chart assuming this deal were to be completed

Harris / Bayless / #3 PG

Roy / #2 SG / Webster / Batum

Batum / Webster / Bowen?

LMA / Bass? McDyess? Foster?

Greg / Joel / Foster?

“#3 PG” and “#2 SG” could be one of those Net’s players (listed above) or they could come via future trades or FA signings. Remember, the Harris-Roy starting backcourt is “the thing” to focus on, however. Don’t just lament the players the Blazers would be letting go to make the deal work.

by two4larue on Jun 27, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This trade doesn't do it from NJ's standpoint

they’re still going to need to sell that trio (LBJ, Bosh, Wade) on this team. And the team you’re proposing they join would only have Lopez, Williams and Rudy as the decent parts they’d be joining. They’d need more than just Rudy as a building block from any Devin Harris for it to be worth it to them. Blake and Outlaw may as well be any ole expiring contracts to them, and they’re more valuable to us than that. Bayless is the part they’d want in addition to the increased trade exception amount they’d be getting would have more value (ya… this is huge and hasn’t been brought up yet). Try to use Outlaw and Blake in another trade. Bayless and Rudy for Devin Harris nets them players to entice the big trio on top of giving New Jersey a trade exception of 6 million dollars that they could use AFTER the LBJ, Bosh and Wade would be signed.

That gives them…

Wade / Bayless
Rudy / Lee / CDR
LBJ / Williams
Bosh / Top 5 Lottery Pick
Lopez / 6 Million Dollar Center (from trade exception)

by as11osu on Jun 27, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know Bayless and Rudy are a lot

but we are hoping that Bayless becomes Devin Harris. So if we have the real thing, we don’t have to hope any longer, it will just be. Rudy is another tough one to give up, but he is easier to replace than a point guard of Harris’ caliper. I’d do it…albeit with a bit of a grimmace.

by JasonT on Jun 27, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

New Jersey, if Harris were traded would be more apt

to want Bayless than Rudy, as they already have Lee and Williams at SG. My point is more about NJ’s perspective on this than ours. If we got Harris I’d much rather give Bayless up than Rudy. Harris is going to play 36-40 minutes per night, and Bayless getting that leftover isn’t a very good situation for him or for us. Rudy is a better match with Roy and Harris than Bayless would be. All that said, the 2 of them for Harris seems like good value to me. Franchise point guards like Harris don’t grow on trees.

by as11osu on Jun 27, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking they could "sell" Rudy to their fans

Fernandez has “sex appeal” like few other players. Like Quick or Jaynes said the other night, they may have been using Harris to try to move up and select Rubio for this purpose. It would be easier for their fanbase to patienty accept losing Harrs if they were to get a fashy young player, in return. (In effect, I’m just substituting Spaniards)

Of course, KP could first make a deal with Minn for Ricky and then approach NJ with both Ricky and Rudy for Harris. But I didn’t want to further complicate my initial proposal

by two4larue on Jun 27, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

BTW I made this proposal a fanpost

as most of you have ready noticed

by two4larue on Jun 27, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Make It Easier

~~1. Rondo~~

~~2. Harris~~

~~3. Stuckey~~

4. Nash

5. Miller

There is no way we can get the top 3 because either their teams are not going to trade them or you have to give up too much. NJ trading Devin Harris is like PDX trading Brandon Roy.

by Balian on Jun 27, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I like Sessions for this team better than Miller. Their games are very similar and I would go with the younger player, especially when he is likely to not cost any extra.

I agree that Rondo, Harris and Stuckey are unattainable. The list should be weighted to account for players ages and ability to play well thru the end of their contracts. My list:

1. Hinrich
2. Sessions
3. Nash
4. Miller

by 52therim on Jun 27, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The sound you hear around Blazer's Edge is this:

The exhalation of hot air.

Portland faithful believe that Kevin Pritchard can somehow entice the Nets to give up Devin Harris for Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw and some spare parts.

As if.

Devin Harris is an All-Star. He is New Jersey’s best player.

Does New Jersey think they can get LeBron James to christen its new Brooklyn arena in a Nets uniform?

You bet.

How do they entice him?

Money, yes.

But also two big complementary pieces.

Namely, Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.

And so trading for Devin Harris — unless you’re offering Brandon Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge — is not going to happen.

I looked into Pritchard’s eyes, read his soul and asked, “Can you get Devin Harris?”

“All options are on the table” was his reply.

But his eyes said otherwise.

I find it interesting that Jose Calderon is on few Blazer fans’ radar. Perhaps he’s not available, but he’s very likely more available than Harris.

Watch out for Calderon.

by Calzone on Jun 27, 2009 10:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Calderon is knocked down for less consistency and/or less defensive prowess than the top 10 PGs.

"...the primary focus of all obstacles is to induce labor, so progression can be born." - LiL C

by idoltime on Jun 27, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

less consistency?

by Cablinasian on Jun 27, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea

by that, I think I was referring to the fact that he is less of a consistent force on offense than other PGs without defense who might make someone’s top 10 pg list

"...the primary focus of all obstacles is to induce labor, so progression can be born." - LiL C

by idoltime on Jun 27, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are right about getting Devin Harris...

unless the Nets are desparate to cut salaries as was mentioned in some rumors that they were contemplating using Harris as a chip to obtain some cheaper talent. That being said, I agree they would be insane to get rid of him and very unlikely to do so without serious compensation.

Maybe the controversy surrounding Rondo will result in him being traded? If that’s the case, maybe he is more gettable than Harris.

While Nash and Miller are more attainable and cheaper than Rondo and Harris, Rondo and Harris’ longevity to be with Portland and play at a high level for the next 5-7 years may make them worth it. At the very least KP should be checking on this. If not, then guys like Nash and Miller will immediately make Portland better, but not for long.

I like Calderon, but his inability to create his own shot makes him less desirable.

by JasonT on Jun 27, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d be good with Calderon, just don’t think he’s available.

by Cablinasian on Jun 27, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Paul

Given the fact that New Orleans is hurting for money, I think a CP3 trade is possible. The question is can we entice New Orleans to pick Portland.

I’m thinking a few of the overseas players stashed(Claver, etc) + Outlaw, Blake, Pryzbilla, Frye, Rudy or Batum might actually work for CP3 + Chandler.

I think CP3 and Chandler make about $25m.
The outgoing Blazers make about $20m. That’s probably close enough to make it work.

New Orleans wins bc they get a bunch of good young players and salary cap relief. Outlaw, Blake, and Pryzbilla will probably be off their books after next year.

I’m just not sure about how Frye fits into the picture due to his qualifying contract.

This gives the blazers an awesome starting lineup and good bench players.

by dannyboy888 on Jun 27, 2009 1:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

never

cp3 will never go unless he forces a trade

"...the primary focus of all obstacles is to induce labor, so progression can be born." - LiL C

by idoltime on Jun 27, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chauncey Billups should be at least at 5.

His experience, poise, and intangibles (he makes a team vastly better) are such that I’d trust him running a team more than Rondo or Harris. Chris Paul is the most skilled point in the league, but his playoff resume is pretty thin compared to Billups’ or Parker for that matter.

by Benjamanic on Jun 30, 2009 8:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs