Why Outlaw Must Be Traded
This is not a post about how Outlaw isn't a good enough player, or similar garbage. Very simply, I would like to explain to people here why Portland really has no option other than to trade Outlaw before the draft next year.
To recap our current situation:
This draft Portland picked up Pendergraph, who might turn into a backup PF, Claver, who might be a wasted pick, and might be a future star... we now have the option to wait and see, as well as Cunningham, who like Outlaw can slide between the 3 and 4.
At PG we dumped Sergio and drafted Mills, who will probably play in SL, then play overseas or in the DL.
We'll be losing Frye, Shav, Raef and Ruffin. After dumping sergio and presumably giving roster spots to Pendergraph and Cunningham, we have three roster spaces left, and approximately $7.5 million in cap space.
Why Outlaw must be traded:
Put simply, Pritchard has almost no option but to trade Outlaw at this point. We have invested a lot of time into developing him, and he has turned into a fantastic scorer, with still more potential to round out his game. He's friendly and likeable, and gets along well with everyone on the team, all while doing what he is asked to.
But... but through developing him we have come to three very important realizations:
- Outlaw plays signifigantly better at PF than at SF, where he can exploit his quickness without giving up length.
- At SF we perform signifigantly better if we have a spot up shooter who is athletic and can play defense.
- At PF we desperately need someone who can be physical and grab rebounds while providing weak side defense.
These three things together spell disaster for keeping Outlaw in Portland. Like Sergio, very little of the problem is talent. With Sergio we had problems with team role and commitment to defense, but no one would question his talent... the guy is a stellar passer and fairly good at not turning over the ball.
On the other side of the coin, I don't think anyone should question Outlaw's talent either. Like Sergio, he has flaws that are obvious, including his one dimensional play and his allergy to rebounding. But talent is not his problem. And it isn't our problem.
The problem is something we've discussed ad nauseum: fit.
Every team can use an Outlaw. Players like him a well regarded, especially one's as young as him. But NBA teams are built around stars, and our stars do not have complimentary talents to Outlaw.
Rather, the stars on our team have talents that are much more complimentary to players like Fernandez, Webster and Batum.
If you noticed, all three of those names can play SF, and given the three points we went over before, and the reality that we have the ability to sign a banger at PF, we are left with one simple reality: there is no room for Outlaw.
As a team, we perform best with a different skill set his positions.
Now this in itself does not always spell the end for a player and their team, but there are two other points that make trading him almost non-negotiable:
- Outlaw is on a reasonable, expiring contract.
- Outlaw has a fair amount of trade value.
To the right team, Outlaw is nearly the perfect player. He doesn't complain much, he's fearless, he can hit big shots, and he knows how to score. A team like the Celtics for instance would probably fall all over themsevles if they thought there was a way they could get him. (NOTE: I'm not implying we could get Rondo for Outlaw... be serious...)
The General Manager's job is to improve the team. To win a championship. And this year that wasn't Pritch, it was Mitch.
For KP, improving the team means making space for the kind of players that will improve our performance, and making space means getting back value for players that won't improve our performance. And that is quite simply Outlaw.
Yes, we will probably trade Blake as well, but his situation is much different. We are not trading him because he doesn't fit, we are trading him because he just isn't enough. With Outlaw, the question was never talent... with Blake, that is the question.
Does this mean we should focus on trading Outlaw? No... You don't focus on trading a player when their talent isn't in question. Instead you look for the player you want and figure out a deal that will send away the assets that don't help for those that do.
By no fault of his own, Outlaw is an asset that will not improve the team any more. And KP is not committed to maintaining the status quo.
5 recs |
11 comments
Comments
I respectfully disagree.
Outlaw has an important non-starter role on this team. That role could last a very long time if we wanted. We’d have to be making a deal for a long term starter for it to make sense to trade him in my opinion.
If we are discussing Outlaw as a starter you would’ve nailed.
You are totally correct that Outlaw is the opposite of Sergio, his trade value is likely quite high, so through no fault of his own he could be used to make roster changes throught trades.
by staylost on Jun 27, 2009 2:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree Outlaw should be traded
but I don’t much care for this argument. I would’ve used the terms defense, team play, defense, BBIQ, defense, rebounding ability and defense much more.
I actually don’t think he’s a horrible fit either, so long as he doesn’t expect to get much time. And the problem with that is that he’s a much greater asset in a trade for us than he is an asset on the court for us. We can effectively use him 5-10 minutes per game at power forward. Both Batum and Webster represent better niche fits at small forward for this team going forward so that eliminates part of Outlaw’s versatility value. And it’s only really value if you consider playing him at a time when the opposing wing he’s defending is incapable of scoring.
Anyways, if Outlaw’s on the team next year I’m going to be among those that’ll be happy with his minutes next year at power forward and lambasting Nate for any minutes that Outlaw uses up at small forward.
by as11osu on Jun 27, 2009 3:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
+1 except I always like this argument
I don’t think theres too many people here that ever question TO’s talent. actually thats what makes him so frustrating. he could be so good if he ever puts it together in his head.
unfortunately, after 6 years people have realized that thats just not going to happen. at least he hasn’t pulled a sergio though and asked for more minutes or a trade to get his way. just like channing, I love the guy’s personality and attitude, just not his game.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
by chrischa on Jun 27, 2009 6:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Jason Quick said the same thing the other night
The Blazers are divided on Travis. Nate likes him, but they now see him (almost exclusively) as a backup 4, to create a quickness mismatch against bigger PFs. The problem is, Outlaw is used to playing 30mpg, and those days are “over” in Portland for him, assuming good health to all returning players. Sure, you could slide LMA to center and play a faster lineup, but that would cut into Greg/Joel’s minutes. Can you say “logjam”?
I think Travis’ 3.6 mil expiring contract is the essential piece to making a lopsided trade. For his own good, and for the good of the roster, he should be dealt this offseason.
by two4larue on Jun 27, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure Outlaw has not complained
about his minutes but that’s cause he’s playing around 25+ minutes a game. But if we keep him and only play him at PF behind LMA then he is only going to get 8-15 minutes a night. Travis won’t stand for that, I know if I were him I wouldn’t. Plus he’s also playing for a new contract so playing more than 10 minutes less than usual and his $$ will drop faster than you can say ‘BOO’.
Face it we have to many shooters and Webster, Rudy are way better at it than Travis is. Batum is already a far superier defender so he ain’t going nowwhere. That leaves Outlaw the odd one out. Later Trout!
by VinnyB on Jun 27, 2009 6:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is the same type of argument I hear from the few who argue we don't need a banger PF
The reason you keep a guy like Outlaw around is for diversity. He is a game changer.
We have Rudy, Martell, Blake, Frye, Batum and LMA for the most part getting to their spots on the perimeter and waiting for the kick-out from Roy. It was a model that got this team to 54 wins.
But the reason why KP drafted pound the paint, hip-to-hip bigs this year is not to emphasize what we do well. It was to give us diversity, to give Nate the tools in his toolbox for more situations.
Almost all of reasons you give to dump Outlaw are, I agree with a previous poster, the reasons you don’t start him. They are not reasons to trade him. We don’t get better without Outlaw.
Will his trade value fall with fewer minutes? Probably, if Martell is healthy.
So, I find that Travis is trade-able. But if we trade him I would want it to be for something we don’t have [like a lock down defender at PG who is also a great distributor, with a good A/TO, and the ability to open up the court for Roy while cutting to feed our bigs].
by LaoTzu on Jun 27, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
One could easily argue that KP intentionally drafted guys he could stash overseas as way to keep the option open to keep outlaw
3. At PF we desperately need someone who can be physical and grab rebounds while providing weak side defense.
We had the best rebounding differential in the league, I think that our rebounding is okay. Weakside help is nice, unless the other team notices and kicks out to get a corner 3 out of it, but I don’t think that a rookie is going to come in and change the entire team defenseive structure and all of the sudden make the blazers an elite defensive team. Batum, although a tough perimeter defender, didn’t change the overall team defense, he may have made some players better, but a rook isn’t going to give ALL the things that Travis can’t do, without leaving some skill to be desired (shooting, creating, etc.). If we got a PG like a Hinrich (yeah i know, original, eh?), or even maybe Rondo, it would be a lot more likely that portlands rotations on D and team D would be better than some greenhorn PF playing 12 minutes a game.
This draft Portland picked up Pendergraph, who might turn into a backup PF
This quote says it all.
MillsFanBoy
by appel82 on Jun 27, 2009 11:27 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I disagree
No offense to Martell, who is a guy I also really like, but Travis is capable of doing something crucial that Martell isn’t: lacing up and playing basketball.
Also, I just love the Rudy-TO 2-3 off the bench. I think that pair on the wing should continue to give opposing second units fits.
by sagcat on Jun 27, 2009 12:55 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Travis is athletic enough to drive and create his own shot off the dribble (Wish he did this more often rather than settle for jumpers) and that is something the Blazers do not have a lot of.
Trade Travis to Boston and he will play solid D for them cause their team is committed to it. He has the skills.
by jidooo on Jun 27, 2009 3:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
agree about Travis creating his own shot
I think Jordan’s analysis above is insightful and very thoughtful (rec’d). And yes, we do have a log jam at SF.
However, right now Travis and Brandon are the two Blazers who can consistently create their own shots.
Jerryd and maybe Rudy should be able create their own shots also. However for me, Jerryd is still a work in progress. Hopefully we’ll learn more in Summer League. And we need more time to evaluate Rudy’s ability to create his own shot, because he hasn’t been used in this way in Nate’s system.
I think that Rudy’s role with the second unit might need to change now. With no Sergio to pass to Rudy, will Travis or Jerryd step up to feed assists to Rudy? Actually Rudy is a better passer than either of them and might collect more assists.
I agree that unfortunately it was “Sergio’s time” to be traded. But he was also the glue guy with the up-tempo second unit. Now we have some important open questions about how the second unit will work.
by jayfisher on Jun 27, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think Outlaw can be traded till we know if Webter can play.
And I’m starting to have my doubts about Martell.
by raoulduke on Jun 27, 2009 10:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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