FanPost

The case for Nicholas Kidd

It is my belief that at PG Kidd would be our best option for this upcoming offseaon acquisition period and that Nic would be the best option at SF.

The case for Kidd:

Out of all 4 Pgs discussed as possible targets Kidd, Miller, Hinrich,and Blake,he has the 2nd best PER but can hit the 3 much better than the first PER Miller.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=R6YP6

"Kidd has lost a step and cannot play D anymore"

Well not really as Kidd produced the best D win score of the entire group even over Hinrich.

"Well stats do not say everything Hinrich is still better"

OK well people who watch the NBA, you know the NBA head coaches that vote on the All-defensive team, have more of a subjective view as well if anybody watches games, it is the head coaches.

Everybody makes a big deal of the fact that HInrich was on the all defensive team but looking back, he was only on the 2nd team ONCE in 2006. However Kidd has been a perpetual All-defensive team member.

1st team: 98, 00, 01, 05
2nd team: 99, 02, 03, 04, 06

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Defensive_Team

So pretty much every year since 98 Kidd has been on the All-defensive team consistently for 8 years.

"Well he is getting old and is slowing down he cant do it much longer"

Well that may be true but, the last 2 years he did not make it onto the team, however, 2 years ago, the first time Kidd did not make the AD team, he received 13 votes compared to Mr BlazersEdge all defense Hinrich who received only a single vote.

http://www.nba.com/news/defensive_team_080512.html

Even this year Kidd was again ahead of Hinrich in the defensive team voting 3 to 1 again.

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/05/06/defensive.team/index.html


"But, but Kidd is a wife beater!!"

As for the offcourt stuff he was plead guilty to a domestic charge back in 2001 and ever since then has kept his nose clean supposedly even going dry in the process. He had a nasty divorce and lots of mud was thrown around, but lots of times that happens when divorce and millions of other peoples $ is involved.
I would imagine that if you had lots of $, a public job and were divorcing someone they would exaggerate every little thing that you may have done wrong in your relationship to further their own case for your $. In the end that is what it came down to.


"He doesn't have much left in the tank!!"

Statistically, he is still better than either Hinrich or Blake and he will have enough to get us to when Bayless is ready to take over full time. Kidd has stated that he would not have a problem, later in his career, coming to a young team and being that mentor to a younger PG. I do not think that many teams are going to be signing a 36 YO PG for more than about 3 years perhaps 4 with a team option.


I can see the platoon much like 2 years ago with Blake starting but Jack playing most of the 4th Q and crunch time mins. Blake came in at 29.9 and Jack at 27.2 and Kidd/Bayless are unquestionably more talented than that pair.
Keep Kidds mins down to prolong his career/usefulness and creep up Bayless' to advance his development. Win-win.

So in conclusion, Kidd is has the highest PER among those PGs above 40%, a higher D win score than both Blake and Hinrich combined, and has had a proven track record of defensive team results.

Objectively and subjectively Kidd is clearly the better defender, has BBIQ that is off the charts and not to even mention the most important thing: 115 playoff games, playoff experience that we SORELY need.

We do not need to win 75 games, only 16 in the playoffs, in fact I suspect that we will come in at close to the same amount of wins as last year but with a far better showing in the playoffs.

The most difficult part of this all is getting him from Dallas, as all accounts he is happy there and thinks that he has a shot at a ring there. However the thing we have going for us is that if he does not think that Dal does not get it this year, we would have a better shot in 2 years and beyond, which would give us a shot.

A sign and trade using Blake and Webster/Outlaw and perhaps a future 1st pick would do wonders to clear up the roster and advance us deep into the playoffs, which is honestly the only thing that matters at all and why we should choose Kidd.

The case for Nic:

All in all keep Batum starting, allow him to mature and backing him up with to Roy/Rudy to maximize Rudys time. Per 82games, in the top 5 winningest combination of players, 3 of them include a Roy/Rudy combination, and 1 other includes Rudy, meaning that in 80% of the winningest combinations Rudy.

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM

As for Nic, he is unquestionably better at defense than Webster and in addition he is the far superior athlete. Martell is average to below in terms on NBA athleticism.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Martell-Webster-279/


Not a great athlete, but not a slouch either. Enjoys nice straight line speed, good leaping ability, and a deceptive first step. Has learned to better utilize his athleticism as he's gained experience, but still lacks the ball-handling skills to take full advantage....... he struggles to create separation........lacks the lateral quickness to consistently defend more athletic players..........Lacks the foot quickness to be a lockdown defender and is that fact that his athletic ability is fairly underwhelming...........Watching tapes of his from high school, players his age don't seem to have too much trouble staying in front of him........Webster's footwork needs serious work on both ends of the court, especially since his feet aren't the quickest................Defensively, his lateral quickness is extremely poor, and he'll very likely be a defensive liability..................Webster puts in the effort on the defensive end, but he just doesn't have the quickness or footwork to keep up with the athletic swingmen types he matches up with at the high school level. Playing as a professional, this problem will only be much worse.....................Webster has his work cut out in many areas of the game to show that he is not just a one-dimensional shooter and that his lack of athleticism does not hurt his ability to develop the rest of his game..............Martell is a good, but not great athlete

Contrast that with Nic

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Nicolas-Batum-537/

freakish athlete ........Blessed with fluid and quite freakish athletic ability.........Batum enjoys a god-gifted physical-athletic profile........ridiculous wingspan and athleticism .........his outstanding athleticism ..........freakish length and outstanding athleticism ........as well as a terrific athlete........impressive physical and athletic set ...........In terms of athleticism, he's an extremely gifted guy. He's quick, but especially a remarkable leaper, being able to perform some jaw dropping dunks. ...................showed the best athletic gifts in Mannheim ...............His athletic conditions are amazing. His vertical, his hang time, his extraordinary quickness, his explosive first step; all make him a player who is athletically almost unparalleled. He has quite long arms and displays great coordination in all his moves. .........

In addition I contend that Nic is the better offensive player as well

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1∑=0&=b&p1=batumni01&y1=2009&=w&p2=webstma02&y2=2008&=&=

Even comparing Martells best year with Nics rookie year Nic is ahead in most metrics.

"The only reason Nic shot that well was the fact that he was wide open!!"

Well yes he was, but with much the same personnel and offense Martell only shot .388 while in the EXACT same situation James Jones, a career .353 shooter coming over to the Blazers, managed to shoot a career best .444 meaning that there must have been some open shots to be had for everyone. How else to explain a career best shooting percentage in the exact same situation when Martell could not take advantage of it?

There is no arguing that Nic has more potential being a 2nd year player than Webster does going into his 4th year, meaning that we are close to seeing a finalized product in Martell. We have waited on bated breath for Martell to turn the corner, always saying "Next year!! Next year he will breakout!!" and much like Telfair we will probably never see it. Case in point if you look at his per minute stats in his first 3 years in the league, they are exactly the same. Out of all players that have spent more than 3 years with the Blazers and were under 25(Roy, LMA, Webster, Jack, Sergio and Webster), coming into this year only Roy, LMA and Outlaw showed marked per minute improvement in their first 2 years in the league. Same crappyness just more of it.

Also IF he is able to physically perform in TC and does not get hurt, what will become of him? Even if he does lace up the Nikes, what good will he be not having played competitive NBA basketball in almost a year and a half? It will take him half the season to regain any semblance of a pro NBA basketball game, and by then Batum will have a year and a half of NBA basketball under his belt,

People will say that we need Webster to come back, but for what purpose? If Martell is deemed out for the entire upcoming year what will we have? Almost the same roster that won us 54 games and the 2nd best record in the west.

I feel that there is strong statistical and anecdotal evidence to support that both Kidd and Nicholas should be the answers to PG1 and SF1 in the upcoming year, it is the most realistic in terms of chemistry and avalibility and would be excactly what this team needs: a solid wing defender who can hit an open shot and a playoff experienced veteran who can mentor Bayless into a champiohship PG. 

On a side note, Terry Porter played SG through much of college and in his senior year averaged much the same stats as Bayless did in his freshman year. Porter was also 6'3 200lbs and known in college for his scoring prowess averaging 19.7 ppg the exact same as Bayless and it was not until his senior year he assumed the PG position full time. It just goes to show you that there is a precedent that many here witnessed first hand and will hopefully witness again. IMO Kidd can help usher  in that new era. 

 

Ladies and gentlemen I rest my case.

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