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Around SBN: The 2009-2010 Card Chronicle Big East basketball preview

The case for Nicholas Kidd

It is my belief that at PG Kidd would be our best option for this upcoming offseaon acquisition period and that Nic would be the best option at SF.

The case for Kidd:

Out of all 4 Pgs discussed as possible targets Kidd, Miller, Hinrich,and Blake,he has the 2nd best PER but can hit the 3 much better than the first PER Miller.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=R6YP6

"Kidd has lost a step and cannot play D anymore"

Well not really as Kidd produced the best D win score of the entire group even over Hinrich.

"Well stats do not say everything Hinrich is still better"

OK well people who watch the NBA, you know the NBA head coaches that vote on the All-defensive team, have more of a subjective view as well if anybody watches games, it is the head coaches.

Everybody makes a big deal of the fact that HInrich was on the all defensive team but looking back, he was only on the 2nd team ONCE in 2006. However Kidd has been a perpetual All-defensive team member.

1st team: 98, 00, 01, 05
2nd team: 99, 02, 03, 04, 06

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Defensive_Team

So pretty much every year since 98 Kidd has been on the All-defensive team consistently for 8 years.

"Well he is getting old and is slowing down he cant do it much longer"

Well that may be true but, the last 2 years he did not make it onto the team, however, 2 years ago, the first time Kidd did not make the AD team, he received 13 votes compared to Mr BlazersEdge all defense Hinrich who received only a single vote.

http://www.nba.com/news/defensive_team_080512.html

Even this year Kidd was again ahead of Hinrich in the defensive team voting 3 to 1 again.

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/05/06/defensive.team/index.html


"But, but Kidd is a wife beater!!"

As for the offcourt stuff he was plead guilty to a domestic charge back in 2001 and ever since then has kept his nose clean supposedly even going dry in the process. He had a nasty divorce and lots of mud was thrown around, but lots of times that happens when divorce and millions of other peoples $ is involved.
I would imagine that if you had lots of $, a public job and were divorcing someone they would exaggerate every little thing that you may have done wrong in your relationship to further their own case for your $. In the end that is what it came down to.


"He doesn't have much left in the tank!!"

Statistically, he is still better than either Hinrich or Blake and he will have enough to get us to when Bayless is ready to take over full time. Kidd has stated that he would not have a problem, later in his career, coming to a young team and being that mentor to a younger PG. I do not think that many teams are going to be signing a 36 YO PG for more than about 3 years perhaps 4 with a team option.


I can see the platoon much like 2 years ago with Blake starting but Jack playing most of the 4th Q and crunch time mins. Blake came in at 29.9 and Jack at 27.2 and Kidd/Bayless are unquestionably more talented than that pair.
Keep Kidds mins down to prolong his career/usefulness and creep up Bayless' to advance his development. Win-win.

So in conclusion, Kidd is has the highest PER among those PGs above 40%, a higher D win score than both Blake and Hinrich combined, and has had a proven track record of defensive team results.

Objectively and subjectively Kidd is clearly the better defender, has BBIQ that is off the charts and not to even mention the most important thing: 115 playoff games, playoff experience that we SORELY need.

We do not need to win 75 games, only 16 in the playoffs, in fact I suspect that we will come in at close to the same amount of wins as last year but with a far better showing in the playoffs.

The most difficult part of this all is getting him from Dallas, as all accounts he is happy there and thinks that he has a shot at a ring there. However the thing we have going for us is that if he does not think that Dal does not get it this year, we would have a better shot in 2 years and beyond, which would give us a shot.

A sign and trade using Blake and Webster/Outlaw and perhaps a future 1st pick would do wonders to clear up the roster and advance us deep into the playoffs, which is honestly the only thing that matters at all and why we should choose Kidd.

The case for Nic:

All in all keep Batum starting, allow him to mature and backing him up with to Roy/Rudy to maximize Rudys time. Per 82games, in the top 5 winningest combination of players, 3 of them include a Roy/Rudy combination, and 1 other includes Rudy, meaning that in 80% of the winningest combinations Rudy.

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM

As for Nic, he is unquestionably better at defense than Webster and in addition he is the far superior athlete. Martell is average to below in terms on NBA athleticism.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Martell-Webster-279/


Not a great athlete, but not a slouch either. Enjoys nice straight line speed, good leaping ability, and a deceptive first step. Has learned to better utilize his athleticism as he's gained experience, but still lacks the ball-handling skills to take full advantage....... he struggles to create separation........lacks the lateral quickness to consistently defend more athletic players..........Lacks the foot quickness to be a lockdown defender and is that fact that his athletic ability is fairly underwhelming...........Watching tapes of his from high school, players his age don't seem to have too much trouble staying in front of him........Webster's footwork needs serious work on both ends of the court, especially since his feet aren't the quickest................Defensively, his lateral quickness is extremely poor, and he'll very likely be a defensive liability..................Webster puts in the effort on the defensive end, but he just doesn't have the quickness or footwork to keep up with the athletic swingmen types he matches up with at the high school level. Playing as a professional, this problem will only be much worse.....................Webster has his work cut out in many areas of the game to show that he is not just a one-dimensional shooter and that his lack of athleticism does not hurt his ability to develop the rest of his game..............Martell is a good, but not great athlete

Contrast that with Nic

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Nicolas-Batum-537/

freakish athlete ........Blessed with fluid and quite freakish athletic ability.........Batum enjoys a god-gifted physical-athletic profile........ridiculous wingspan and athleticism .........his outstanding athleticism ..........freakish length and outstanding athleticism ........as well as a terrific athlete........impressive physical and athletic set ...........In terms of athleticism, he's an extremely gifted guy. He's quick, but especially a remarkable leaper, being able to perform some jaw dropping dunks. ...................showed the best athletic gifts in Mannheim ...............His athletic conditions are amazing. His vertical, his hang time, his extraordinary quickness, his explosive first step; all make him a player who is athletically almost unparalleled. He has quite long arms and displays great coordination in all his moves. .........

In addition I contend that Nic is the better offensive player as well

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1∑=0&=b&p1=batumni01&y1=2009&=w&p2=webstma02&y2=2008&=&=

Even comparing Martells best year with Nics rookie year Nic is ahead in most metrics.

"The only reason Nic shot that well was the fact that he was wide open!!"

Well yes he was, but with much the same personnel and offense Martell only shot .388 while in the EXACT same situation James Jones, a career .353 shooter coming over to the Blazers, managed to shoot a career best .444 meaning that there must have been some open shots to be had for everyone. How else to explain a career best shooting percentage in the exact same situation when Martell could not take advantage of it?

There is no arguing that Nic has more potential being a 2nd year player than Webster does going into his 4th year, meaning that we are close to seeing a finalized product in Martell. We have waited on bated breath for Martell to turn the corner, always saying "Next year!! Next year he will breakout!!" and much like Telfair we will probably never see it. Case in point if you look at his per minute stats in his first 3 years in the league, they are exactly the same. Out of all players that have spent more than 3 years with the Blazers and were under 25(Roy, LMA, Webster, Jack, Sergio and Webster), coming into this year only Roy, LMA and Outlaw showed marked per minute improvement in their first 2 years in the league. Same crappyness just more of it.

Also IF he is able to physically perform in TC and does not get hurt, what will become of him? Even if he does lace up the Nikes, what good will he be not having played competitive NBA basketball in almost a year and a half? It will take him half the season to regain any semblance of a pro NBA basketball game, and by then Batum will have a year and a half of NBA basketball under his belt,

People will say that we need Webster to come back, but for what purpose? If Martell is deemed out for the entire upcoming year what will we have? Almost the same roster that won us 54 games and the 2nd best record in the west.

I feel that there is strong statistical and anecdotal evidence to support that both Kidd and Nicholas should be the answers to PG1 and SF1 in the upcoming year, it is the most realistic in terms of chemistry and avalibility and would be excactly what this team needs: a solid wing defender who can hit an open shot and a playoff experienced veteran who can mentor Bayless into a champiohship PG. 

On a side note, Terry Porter played SG through much of college and in his senior year averaged much the same stats as Bayless did in his freshman year. Porter was also 6'3 200lbs and known in college for his scoring prowess averaging 19.7 ppg the exact same as Bayless and it was not until his senior year he assumed the PG position full time. It just goes to show you that there is a precedent that many here witnessed first hand and will hopefully witness again. IMO Kidd can help usher  in that new era. 

 

Ladies and gentlemen I rest my case.

Poll
What are your thought on this matter?
Agree with both
28 votes
Agree with Kidd
15 votes
Agree with Nic
40 votes
Agree with neither
12 votes
Other
3 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs  |  Comment 22 comments

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Comments

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I definately prefer Kidd to Miller.

I’m liking the Hinrich/Rubio impossible route more & more though.

Of course I’m sold on Batum as starter for good.

by staylost on Jun 27, 2009 2:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You don't use a very valuable commodity

like our cap space on a guy that only really helps us for one year. Next year isn’t our true window anyway. If we force the issue it’s going to kill this teams true window.

Head this message…
2011-2020 > 2010

You don’t sell your soul when Oden is this much of a question mark. While we do need to start making hey in the playoffs, we don’t need anymore 30+ guys on this roster. Blake and Przybilla are there, and making moves to acquire 37 year old point guards at the cost of ALL of our cap space and financial flexibility compromises you beyond repair. He’s not THE last move. He’s a panic move, when none is needed, or would have any serious consequential impact.

Even IF you were at your window already, signing a guy with the only cap room you’re going to have for the next 5-10 years on a guy that can only legitimately help you for one year makes no business sense.

Batum… now that guy fits the window. You don’t have to put down Webster to believe that Batum should start. Both of these guys can be really nice assets going forward, obviously Batum more so than Webster, but they’re both real nice looking guys from this rosters perspective. Because of Batum, Webster could make a really nice trade asset once he’s healthy and contributing. Even now, he’s a great value at his age given his salary.

by as11osu on Jun 27, 2009 2:58 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Here is the thing

Whomever we get this year as PG1, whether it be Hinrich, Miller, Kidd or Blake will not matter in the long run with this team and winning a championship.

That leaves us with the task of finding that 3rd scorer who is young and can create and in this NBA is clearly more suited for a PG who has a great first step and can finish at the rim or draw fouls. Now HInrich, Blake, Kidd all cannot do that to very much extent, I fully concede that that Kidd would not bring that to the team, however he would still be better than Blake or Hinrich and is the far better shooter going 166/399 since joining the Mavs which is 42% as well as shooting 44.7% in the playoffs this year making him comparable to Blake in that regards.

No one that fits our timetable and can create for themselves or others is available in FA this year at the PG slot and that is a far more pressing need than the SF position, which I believe needs to be dedicated to the D stopper role, which is why I prefer Batum to Hedo or other offensive SF.

So the most important thing is to find that 3rd scorer and we have a load of scoring talent right in our laps in Bayless. The biggest thing is that even I agree that he is not ready for the keys to a 54 win playoff team quite yet, but by 2011, as you look forward to, with the mentoring of Kidd he should be able to combine his scoring prowess with the ability to run a team well enough to win a championship.

What we need now is veteran leadership with loads of playoff experience, and a 3rd scoring threat. Do you not agree?

Kidd can provide that playoff experience until the rest of the team has caught up with him and by that time Bayless will have learned how to run a team as well as providing that 3rd scoring punch from the perimeter.

We have talent and youth in spades and the only thing we need is veteran presence with playoff experience. Conley is actually a downgrade in terms of playoff experience, Hinrich is a downgrade defensively, and playoff experience wise, and Miller has never been a winner anywhere he has gone and actually has less playoff experience than Hinrich.

You argue that 2011 is more important than 2010 and that is true, but no one we can get will fit the bill better than Kidd with his playoff experience and Bayless with his scoring ability and lastly if we can pull a S & T we will still have capspace included as well, meaning 0 net gain on salary.

Collegiate stats:

NCAA Arizona:
Jerryd Bayless: 19.7pts, 4.0 asts, 3to

NAIA Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Terry Porter: 19.7pts, 4.3 asts, 2.33to

by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This isn't it
So the most important thing is to find that 3rd scorer…

What we need now is veteran leadership with loads of playoff experience, and a 3rd scoring threat. Do you not agree?

Kidd can provide that playoff experience until the rest of the team has caught up with him and by that time Bayless will have learned how to run a team as well as providing that 3rd scoring punch from the perimeter.

If you want a 3rd scoring threat, why are we even discussing Kidd? Despite playing 36 minutes per game he was 168th out of 181 in the NBA last year in scoring. Averaging just 12.2 points per 48 minutes. Just for comparison Joel Przybilla averages 11. Is Joel a 3rd scoring threat? The only reason to make a Kidd trade is that you know you can win a Championship this year with this acquisition AND you know within the next two years Bayless will be ready to take over. I don’t think either of those things are even remotely close to being true.

The free agent or trade we make with our cap space this year HAS to be for more than this year, and Kidd’s 37 year old, can’t defend a point guard to save his life, self. This isn’t the Kidd of old that was great at penetration. He leaves so many holes, and would cost us our last far too much. By comparison, you could get Bass for about the same, and you’d be getting 5 years of a solid power forward in his prime, that can play both post positions, and can score both inside and out. That makes WAY more sense in years 2-5 of his stay here.

You argue that 2011 is more important than 2010 and that is true, but no one we can get will fit the bill better than Kidd with his playoff experience and Bayless with his scoring ability and lastly if we can pull a S & T we will still have capspace included as well, meaning 0 net gain on salary.

Huh? A 38 year old point guard is going to be better than a 29 or 30 year old Kirk Hinrich for THIS team? Not to mention all the younger point guards whom already have made leaps and bounds, and will be better than Kidd in the not so distant future. Kidd’s inability to defend the point guard position (which is half the reason we’re looking to upgrade) leaves us in the exact same position we were in last year when Aaron Brooks drank our milkshake.

This years cap space MUST be used to in a manner that doesn’t just upgrade us for a year, or at most two years. We have bigger fish to fry here. The Spurs have made this year even more of a long shot than it already was. We need to use our assets in a way to maximize our talent on the teams that actually have a legitimate shot at a Championship. Going out and spending all your money on Jason Kidd a huge gamble with a minuscule percentage at payoff.

by as11osu on Jun 27, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

you're not even readinf my post
That leaves us with the task of finding that 3rd scorer who is young and can create and in this NBA is clearly more suited for a PG who has a great first step and can finish at the rim or draw fouls. Now HInrich, Blake, Kidd all cannot do that to very much extent, I fully concede that that Kidd would not bring that to the team,

Worst case scenario, we have a Steve Blake with more assists, better rebounding, and 115 games of playoff experience which is invaluable to a team like ours. He has been there and knows what to expect and can convey that to the other players. Tony Parker in his 2nd year was also pulled sometimes and replaced by Steve Kerr and Speedy Claxton late in playoff games because they were more experienced in those situations.

In Bayless we have a scorer that on every level has produced, 37ppg in HS, 19.7 as a freshman playing against the most difficult defensive and overall schedule in the nation that year

http://kenpom.com/rate.php?y=2008&s=SOSD

and lit up the SL for 29, so to say that Bayless has no scoring potential is ludicrous and to say that under the tutelage of both Nate and Kidd he could not learn how to run a team is even more. When I say run a team I do not mean throwing no look alley oop passes from halfcourt on a dime, or averaging 15apg, but rather being able to know when and where your teammates like the ball. Knowing when to shoot, drive or pass, where everybody is supposed to be on the court and how the play is to be run correctly and where to go when it breaks down.

Blake did lead this team to 54 wins and he was nothing but solid and ran the team and hit 3s. Imagine if you add Bayless’ driving and finishing to what Blake already has and it is not that far off to believe that Bayless can add that.

As for Hinrich, can we please stop with the “We need to guard quicker PGs!!!” No PG can individually do that, especially not Hinrich. Add to it the fact that Hinrich who is in his prime now, STILL got 3x less votes for defensive first team than a “washed up old man who can’t even stop a little old lady from getting into the lane” Kidd.

If Hinrich is SUCH a good defender why did “your friendly BullsBlogger” (aka Dave of Blog-a-Bull) write these?:

http://www.blogabull.com/2009/1/19/728158/bulls-knicks#11606655

This is basically what I was getting at. Hinrich can be lit up by Joe Johnson as easily as others.

And in general, I don’t value individual perimeter defense that much, unless it’s truly of the shutdown variety. Which is rare since it’s nearly impossible to fully check players on the perimeter in the NBA.

So any idea that Hinrich is a premier defender on the perimeter… even if it was true (it’s not), it’s still not nearly as valuable as having a premier interior defender like Duncan or Garnett.

Or how about this little gem:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/5/29/892913/hinrich#16364489

Kirk’s defense is getting a bit too much pub
Maybe Blake is that bad. He likely is, and certainly doesn’t have the physical ability of Hinrich on D.

Not sure Hinrich should be touted here as a top-5 defensive PG, but I won’t go through the rankings. The reality is that he is a good defensive player, and more importantly he cares to be, and is smart about it. That puts him ahead of a ton of guards (and most of the Bulls under VDN).

But in terms of actual performance, Kirk really excels at a type of defense, Scotter at BaB pointed this out a while ago, and I think it’s apt:

Hinrich’s defensive reputation is greater than his true performance and abilities. Hinrich often gets labeled a shut down defender when he isn’t anything of the kind. He’s especially good at one kind of defense. Pestering high usage scorers like Wade over a long time. He doesn’t stop Wade, he just annoys him and drags down his efficiency a bit. That’s Hinrich’s defensive skill. Same thing with Raja Bell who get a lot credit for simply annoying Kobe, while Kobe was lighting him up.

And like a superstar wing, similarly if you match Hinrich up with a small fast guard he will get lit up. Though he will put forth an effort…which as I said does count for a lot. Ironically one guy I could see Hinrich do better against than most is Brandon Roy.

.

That is 2x he used the phrase “lit up” when describing Hinrich’s D.

PG D IS THE BIGGEST OXYMORON IN THE WORLD

Read this:

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/david_aldridge/04/22/aldridge.defenses/index.html

Also you do know that Hinrich’s salary is $9.5m right? Which is probably all Kidd would get, making it a wash $$ wise, even leaving $$ for Bass or McDyess.

In the end Kidd has a far greater defensive resume than Hinrich ever has had, even being 8 years older. He received more defensive team votes from NBA coaches who know far more about D than you or I ever will, had a higher D win score, and even offensively had a higher PER.

EVERY SINGLE advanced stat, Kidd is head and shoulders above Hinrich even at 36

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kirk-Hinrich-2836/stats/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jason-Kidd-3144/stats/

Eff/40:

Kidd: 21.7
Hinrich: 16.9

WS/40:

Kidd: 11.4
Hinrich: 5.6

The only thing you hold over his head is the fact that he is old, but even 8 years older than Hinrich, Kidd produced better advanced statistics than he ever has in his entire career. So even if he does start to decline, it will still be at a higher level than Hinrich can produce, even in his prime.

All this time Bayless will be learning and how do you say? Become a

“younger point guard whom already have made leaps and bounds, and will be better than Kidd in the not so distant future.”

Hinrich is not the future, Bayless is and we simply need someone with loads of playoff experience to come in and help this team out to become all that it can be.

Collegiate stats:

NCAA Arizona:
Jerryd Bayless: 19.7pts, 4.0 asts, 3to

NAIA Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Terry Porter: 19.7pts, 4.3 asts, 2.33to

by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This response has little to nothing to do with any of my points.

Some points you may want to address…

1. Jason Kidd will be 37 in the playoffs
2. Jason Kidd would take up all of our cap space
3. Jason Kidd can’t defend point guards (Jet or JJ do)
4. Jason Kidd ISN’T a third scorer (168th out of 181 in producing points)
5. Wasting the last cap space we’ll have for the next 10 years on a guy that only contributes in year one is foolish
6. This team’s chances of winning the championship with Kidd are too minuscule this year (you’d be wasting an asset)
7. Counting your Bayless eggs before they hatch is far too great a risk for this move (he was awful last year)
8. 2011-2020 > 2010
9. We have the assets to go after real answers to our point guard issue. Answers that last through our window.
10. Kidd’s ability to defend wing players matters little to none on this team.
11. Playoff experience has little to do with winning in the playoffs (the stats were crunched last year – no effect)

You can’t sell me Kidd as a fit, and then expect me to buy Bayless also as a fit. They’re completely different players. One is and one isn’t. You decide. Do we want the guy with no court awareness whose game is built around penetration and has no passing instincts whatsoever. Or is it the exact opposite? One fits with our starters and one doesn’t.

Worst case scenario, we have a Steve Blake with more assists, better rebounding, and 115 games of playoff experience which is invaluable to a team like ours.

Worst case scenario we upgraded for a single year from a player everyone dismisses as a starter anyway. Not much of a plus side.

In Bayless we have a scorer that on every level has produced

Of the point guards that qualified last year Bayless was 63rd out of 64.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&qual=true&pos=pg&seasonType=2

Blake did lead this team to 54 wins and he was nothing but solid and ran the team and hit 3s. Imagine if you add Bayless’ driving and finishing to what Blake already has and it is not that far off to believe that Bayless can add that.

Given what we know right as of this second, after reviewing how he performed last year, any Bayless prognostications are pure speculation… especially the positive ones.

PG D IS THE BIGGEST OXYMORON IN THE WORLD

That explains why Kidd and Bayless are your point guards of our future. Hinrich can defend actual point guards much better than Kidd, even though I’ll readily admit Hinrich is an overrated defender. That speaks more to Kidd’s lack of ability in that regard.

Kidd allowed a PER of 21.7 to point guards (they allowed 98.7 Points Per 48 with him at the position).
Bayless allowed a PER of 19.0 to point guards (they allowed 96.5 Points Per 48 with him at the position).
Hinrich allowed a PER of 14.8 to point guards (they allowed 93.5 Points Per 48 with him at the position).

The only thing you hold over his head is the fact that he is old, but even 8 years older than Hinrich, Kidd produced better advanced statistics than he ever has in his entire career. So even if he does start to decline, it will still be at a higher level than Hinrich can produce, even in his prime.

Kidd is not nearly as good off the ball as Hinrich would be. He doesn’t move around hardly at all anymore, and his career marks from 3 are much lower than Hinrich’s. His defense, which is probably priority number one from the position is also much better on point guards than Kidd’s would be.

All this time Bayless will be learning and how do you say? Become a

"younger point guard whom already have made leaps and bounds, and will be better than Kidd in the not so distant future."

The thing is we can get, with the assets we have now, a point guard that is leaps and bounds better than Bayless already. Guys that are already on par with Kidd if not better than him AND are much much younger.

by as11osu on Jun 27, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK
1. Jason Kidd will be 37 in the playoffs

and will still be better than Hinrich as he has been throughout his career

2. Jason Kidd would take up all of our cap space

No incorrect again, Blake and Webster/Outlaw in a S&T will not, it will count as much as Hinrich

3. Jason Kidd can’t defend point guards (Jet or JJ do)

Neither does Hinrich, Rose or Gordon do

4. Jason Kidd ISN’T a third scorer (168th out of 181 in producing points)

I already addressed that above but you totally disregarded it, but he is still more of a scorer than Hinrich

5. Wasting the last cap space we’ll have for the next 10 years on a guy that only contributes in year one is foolish

Cmon, with Bayless and Kidd splitting minutes ala Jack/Blake will extend his career. In addition Kidd has been the paramount

6. This team’s chances of winning the championship with Kidd are too minuscule this year (you’d be wasting an asset)

See #5

7. Counting your Bayless eggs before they hatch is far too great a risk for this move (he was awful last year)

In games where Bayless played more than 20 mins he averaged

26.3min
46.8%fg
18%3pt
11pts
3.5ast
1.4to
2.1reb

as a rookie. Most everyone agrees that with extended playing time Bayless produced quite well considering the situation.

8. 2011-2020 > 2010

Didn’t realize that we were going to sign Hinrich to a 10 year deal

9. We have the assets to go after real answers to our point guard issue. Answers that last through our window.

Kirk Hinrich=Blake and 2x the salary

10. Kidd’s ability to defend wing players matters little to none on this team

.

As does Hinrichs ability to defend wings which is all he does

11. Playoff experience has little to do with winning in the playoffs (the stats were crunched
last year – no effect)

Much like Pop went with Kerr and his post-MJ playoff experience over Tony Parker

Of the point guards that qualified last year Bayless was 63rd out of 64.

Yeah comparing a rookie that only played 655 minutes is solid proof that Bayless will amount to nothing in the league

Given what we know right as of this second, after reviewing how he performed last year, any Bayless prognostications are pure speculation… especially the positive ones.

When given minutes Bayless has produced admirably. Add to that the fact that unlike Miles, Bayless actually is from KP “the hardest worker in the league.” While it is true that Bayless has not shown anything as of yet, there is one thing that I feel that everyone can agree on:

Everyone agrees that Bayless has a load of talent, there is no question to that. What I know is that when talent and a work ethic the likes KP describes Bayless has, there is a greater than not likelihood that he will reach his potential.

Talent+hard work=success in almost everything in life. That is a fact and even you cannot deny that.

That explains why Kidd and Bayless are your point guards of our future. Hinrich can defend actual point guards much better than Kidd, even though I’ll readily admit Hinrich is an overrated defender. That speaks more to Kidd’s lack of ability in that regard.

That pretty much confirms my thought that you did not even think to read that link I sent to you. PG D is by association team D. “Great” defensive PGs have amazing defensive SF, PF and Cs backing them up.

Kidd allowed a PER of 21.7 to point guards (they allowed 98.7 Points Per 48 with him at the position).
Bayless allowed a PER of 19.0 to point guards (they allowed 96.5 Points Per 48 with him at the position).
Hinrich allowed a PER of 14.8 to point guards (they allowed 93.5 Points Per 48 with him at the position).

Well you have stats and I have stats but I also have coaches recognition in the form of the all defensive team votes for Kidd


Kidd is not nearly as good off the ball as Hinrich would be. He doesn’t move around hardly at all anymore, and his career marks from 3 are much lower than Hinrich’s. His defense, which is probably priority number one from the position is also much better on point guards than Kidd’s would be.

Much of the time Kidd was playing off the ball at the 3pt line while Dirk, Howard and Terry worked inside. What does career stats have to do with the present? 166/399 since joining the Mavs, nuff said

The thing is we can get, with the assets we have now, a point guard that is leaps and bounds better than Bayless already. Guys that are already on par with Kidd if not better than him AND are much much younger.

Well yeah we could get a SF better than Batum and a C better than Oden but they have potential, so you roll with them.

I mean if we can get Harris, Parker, or Paul then go for it, but so far all advances from what we know have been heavily favored towards the other team. This is by far the most plausible and available option to us. HInrich even 8 years younger is NOT an upgrade to Kidd and considering chemistry Blake is even better than him.

Lastly, nothing I am going to say is going to change your mind, so I am done with this but judging by the voting results I have convinced more people that Kidd is a more viable option than Hinrich and when he signs here I will be overjoyed.

Collegiate stats:

NCAA Arizona:
Jerryd Bayless: 19.7pts, 4.0 asts, 3to

NAIA Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Terry Porter: 19.7pts, 4.3 asts, 2.33to

by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

1. Jason Kidd will be 37 in the playoffs – and will still be better than Hinrich as he has been throughout his career

Not for this team. Hinrich is a much better defender of point guards because of how much quicker he is at this point in his career than Kidd. Ideally, since no one else on the team can defend quick point guards, that’s THE skill we need, and Hinrich (even though he’s overrated overall defensively) is a TON better at it than Kidd. Also, Hinrich is the superior shooter and scorer.

2. Jason Kidd would take up all of our cap space – No incorrect again, Blake and Webster/Outlaw in a S&T will not, it will count as much as Hinrich

Why would we do that when we could get Kidd straight up for nothing? That’s essentially saying Blake and Outlaw aren’t worth their contracts, but in fact they are.

3. Jason Kidd can’t defend point guards (Jet or JJ do) – Neither does Hinrich, Rose or Gordon do

Hinrich defends whoever the opponents best perimeter player is because he’s a versatile defender. Kidd defends wing players because he’s incapable of defending point guards.

4. Jason Kidd ISN’T a third scorer (168th out of 181 in producing points) – I already addressed that above but you totally disregarded it, but he is still more of a scorer than Hinrich

Hinrich is a vastly more talented scorer at this stage in the game than Kidd is. Hinrich scores 18 points per 48, Kidd only 12. Hinrich also scores points at a higher TS% so he’s also the more efficient player even though he also scores 1 and a half times as much as Kidd.

5. Wasting the last cap space we’ll have for the next 10 years on a guy that only contributes in year one is foolish – Cmon, with Bayless and Kidd splitting minutes ala Jack/Blake will extend his career. In addition Kidd has been the paramount

Extend his career? He’s 37 years old. At the end of this year, that’ll be a career. Bayless hasn’t done a thing to earn PT, yet he’s going to extend another players career? But good job avoiding the real issue, that of WASTING the last cap space we’ll have for the next 10 years. How can getting one year of contribution in a year we’re not going to win the title be a good thing? It can’t, and isn’t.

7. Counting your Bayless eggs before they hatch is far too great a risk for this move (he was awful last year) – In games where Bayless played more than 20 mins he averaged:
26.3min/46.8%fg/18%3pt/11pts/3.5ast/1.4to/2.1reb
Most everyone agrees that with extended playing time Bayless produced quite well considering the situation.

Since you like advanced stats so much… Of the point guards that qualified last year Bayless was 63rd out of 64.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&qual=true&pos=pg&seasonType=2
Value Added = -26.6
Wins Added = -0.9

9. We have the assets to go after real answers to our point guard issue. Answers that last through our window. – Kirk Hinrich=Blake and 2x the salary

Believe it or not there plenty of guys I’d prefer to Hinrich. Rubio, Conley, Harris, Rondo… That’s my whole point on our assets. You have a lot of assets, and you have a hole at point guard. Go use all your assets and make the hole at point guard go away. These are franchise caliber types that you can get (Conley now is probably off of the gettable list) for a reasonable price.

10. Kidd’s ability to defend wing players matters little to none on this team – As does Hinrichs ability to defend wings which is all he does

The Bulls really are a fun team to watch. I definitely encourage anyone that has not seen them play in a while to do so.

11. Playoff experience has little to do with winning in the playoffs (the stats were crunched last year – no effect) – Much like Pop went with Kerr and his post-MJ playoff experience over Tony Parker

Pop went with Kerr because of his 3 point abilities, which are much closer to a guy like Hinrich than a guy like Kidd. Hinrich shot a higher percentage from out there shooting a 3 every 8 minutes, while Kidd took one every 9 minutes. Hinrich’s career mark is much higher as well.

Of the point guards that qualified last year Bayless was 63rd out of 64. – Yeah comparing a rookie that only played 655 minutes is solid proof that Bayless will amount to nothing in the league

Your stats look at an even smaller sample size (260 minutes). Bayless stunk last year, there’s no ifs ands or buts about it. 63 out of 64 is pretty telling. He also was among the group that qualified (meaning enough minutes to matter) for his stats to be included.

HInrich even 8 years younger is NOT an upgrade to Kidd and considering chemistry Blake is even better than him.

wow

by as11osu on Jun 27, 2009 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

kid is not the awnser

Although great in the past kid is not the player he once was. If we go old Nash would be a better fit and great leader. Miller is a very smart pg. better then and cheaper then Heinrich. but we should persue either Hedo Turkolu or Tayshaun Prince. pg will be fine no sence in trading everybody for just a average one.

by RayRay72 on Jun 27, 2009 5:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

love the batum part

kidd not so much. I look at it like this: in 4 years, who’s gonna account for more total points, assists, or any other meaningful pg statistic? Kidd may produce at a higher level right now but won’t even be on the court in 3 years. a 39 yr old PG? meanwhile, guys like hinrich (don’t even really like the guy for us) will still be producing. so even if kidd was producing huge numbers this year (which he won’t) even a guy like blake will be more productive in the long haul.

I do get the leadership, experience and mentoring he could bring though, and you can’t exactly measure that…

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 27, 2009 6:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Come on
with much the same personnel and offense Martell only shot .388 while in the EXACT same situation

Let’s be honest here. Nic played over 70% of his minutes this year alongside BOTH Aldridge and Roy. Martell played less than half his minutes next to the two of them at the same time. Even if there were no other differences between the two teams that alone would be a significant difference, especially considering we’re talking about comparing the borderline all star Roy was last year to the potential MVP candidate he was this year.

Also, are we really going to say that Channing + Jack isn’t a huge difference between Oden and Rudy? I’m not saying Martell’s better overall, but he’s significantly better offensively than Nic was last year, and given that there is a 0% chance of Nic starting over him last year if he had been healthy, I’ll stand by that statement no matter what.

And as far as Outlaw showing “marked per minute improvement his first two years in the league”? That has to be a joke. Looking up the stats first might help.

by Royster on Jun 27, 2009 8:34 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

are you saying martell didn't start?

I’m confused. he def played the majority of his minutes alongside aldridge and roy (hell, everyone does, they play 40 min a game). I would say nic played more like 100 percent of his minutes next to those guys though because unlike martell, once his starting “shift” was over, he was pretty much done for the game as nate would usually opt for travis after the 1st quarter.

but really I don’t think nic playing with those guys is as big a deal as you make it out to be because a player like martell camps out in the corner and waits for spot up 3s. he doesn’t cut, he doesn’t get transition baskets, he doesn’t go after putbacks. if anyone benefits from playing with players who command double teams, its martell.

nic on the other hand actually makes cuts, he runs the floor, and he can occasionally spot up. basically, his game is more diverse. no doubt he still isn’t handling the ball much and he often plays off of others, but I would say that he is much less dependent on roy or aldridge than martell is.

still, martell is probably better than nic is right now. but if you compare martell’s first year to nic’s? well, theres nothing to compare. martell couldn’t even get off the bench. nic will be better (maybe not a better 3 pt. shooter percentage wise, just overall), its just a matter of time

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 27, 2009 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Martell started

but he also played significantly later in the half, as opposed to Nic, who’d start, play 6 minutes or so, and then would come out, and essentially not play for the rest of the half. Like I said, 71% of Nic’s minutes came with both Roy and Aldridge on the floor. Less than half of Martell’s minutes came with both of those guys on the floor. If it doesn’t make sense that having our two best offensive threats on the floor would lead to more open shots, I’m not sure what would.

As far as their offensive roles, Martell drew more fouls than Nic and shot double the number of FTs on a per minute basis, but of course, all he does is spotting up.

by Royster on Jun 27, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually Outlaw has show improvement

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/outlatr01.html

In his first 2 years he did not improve as much but he only played 802 minutes total, contrast that with Websters 1070 minutes his first year and 1759 minutes in his 2nd year. From year 3Outlaw scored 12.5p/36min followed by 15p/36min and finally scoring 18p/36min all with an increasing 3pt % as well.

Collegiate stats:

NCAA Arizona:
Jerryd Bayless: 19.7pts, 4.0 asts, 3to

NAIA Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Terry Porter: 19.7pts, 4.3 asts, 2.33to

by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did I say he didn't improve?

I said he didn’t improve in his first two years in the league. Like you said, Outlaw didn’t improve at all until his fourth year.

by Royster on Jun 27, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batum

is awsome in the open court. He almost always finishes the fast break. That was something we needed badley in the last couple of yrs. I don’t think anyone can argue that Nic is way better at defense. With that said, Webster is a better fit for the starters right now (if he is healthy of course). I would love to see Batum’s game expand, coming off the bench, without the pressure of gaurding Kobe, LeBron, or any of the great players. He can come in off the bench and keep the pressure up on those guys, but overall, I would like Bayless, Rudy, and Nic to run their butts off for the second unit.

As for PG, I have no idea. Kidd sounds great, and your arguement is right on, but it just doesn’t feel right about that move.

by bad karma on Jun 27, 2009 9:53 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If Nic is "way" better at defense

why would you not want him on the other teams best offensive player. I thnk both Martell and Nic would be good for the 2nd team, but I also think Nic is much better with the starters.

All in all, I just hope we get the chance to see Nic and Martell next season. Still worried that Martell will be a no-show next season (at least for a while).

To summarize: Wade too quick, Kobe too skilled, LeBron too physical - Batum

by Ltlgto on Jun 27, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think our Small Forward position is similar to our Center position

either player (Batum, Webster and Oden, Przybilla) can start without affecting the lineup much.

"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.

"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.

by Tofu Anonymous on Jun 27, 2009 1:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Strong argument for Kidd

I’m more positive on him now than before reading this.

by pualo on Jun 27, 2009 2:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Possible good news

Looks like Kidd may be on the way out of Dal, could come cheaper
 
http://www.star-telegram.com/287/story/1455278.html

Collegiate stats:

NCAA Arizona:
Jerryd Bayless: 19.7pts, 4.0 asts, 3to

NAIA Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Terry Porter: 19.7pts, 4.3 asts, 2.33to

by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2009 10:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think we'd get Kidd, but if we do, I'm certainly not going to cry.

He’d be a good mentor for Bayless. Much moreso than Hinrich, I would think.

At 37 I’m not quite sure where his ballin’ skills will be, but I’d think his veteran savvy alone would help him get by. He’ll be a heckuva lot better than D-Fisher on the L*kers, and they won a ring…so….I’m not opposed if we can’t drum up anything better.

I’d hope for something else, but if nothing else pans out, Kidd’s an ok option. I just think KP can get more bang for his buck.

by prezofdeath on Jun 28, 2009 9:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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