A theory about how Pritch makes/spins picks (bayless content)
I try to only post when I have a thought that I haven't read much about on the Bedge -- which means I almost never post since we have so many people people posting about most every angle of our team. But, I don't think I've read much about this aspect of the drafting process (or I've missed it when it was discussed recently): how KP spins the draft/trade choices he makes and how we function as accomplices to his mythology by building him up as some sort of svengali.
My example is my recollections of last year's draft and the weeks leading up to that draft. We were looking to upgrade the point guard spot. I remember being (along with alot of other informed folks) being really high on Westbrook. He was supposed to be an unselfish, defensive-minded point with great athleticism. We were looking at the 9-13 range and he was slotted to be right in there along with DJ Augustin. Not alot of lobbying for Bayless. A few were trying to throw stuff together to find a way to talk Chicago into trading Rose, but no Bayless (for the same reasons most of didn't want Mayo).
The week before the draft Westbrook shoots up the ladder and people are talking about him going in more of the 3-6 range. KP picks Bayless and we all talk about how he was brilliant to get a top 5 talent somehow at 11 while getting rid of Jack. Now, my point is not that Bayless is no good, nor that shipping Jack out was not a good move. My point is that I don't think Bayless was KP's guy: it was Westbrook. Westbrook made and still makes more sense than Bayless. He would have been a better fit at the point.
I've read posts asking if KP's made his first mistake yet, and if your view is KP as svengali, I would say yes. I think KP can rightly claim (and we as fans can feel good about) getting a great value in snagging Bayless at 11/13, but I would have been more impressed with some sort of mis-information campaign or something to get us westbrook. And it would've made more sense (to me) and not required the spin.
I'm posting this just to get our recollection of last year's draft (and subsequent integration of picks) to inform what we're expecting from (and reading into) this year's draft. And to also suggest that KP doesn't have 1 guy that he will mystically acquire to the astonishment of all, but rather, a whole slew of guys and moves to go to as the draft develops. None of them are bad options, just some are better than others.
What do you think of my idea that Westbrook was actually "the guy" - and KP spun (and we bought into the genius of) Bayless?
And just because I don't do these very often, here's a poll:
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I think after this year
we´ll be able to say more about Bayless.
I´m not a big fan of westbrook, but Bayless hasn´t shown anything yet.
Pretty much sums it up
It is very possible KP is pumping Bayless for his trade value for the PG he really wants, won’t know till draft day.
Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley Jr(T)/Jrue Holiday(D)/Rodrigue Beaubois(D)
SG Options: Mickaël Piétrus(T)/Terrence Williams(D)/Paul Harris(D)
Forward Options: Serge Ibaka(T)/Taj Gibson(D)/Ater Majok(D)
C Options: Alexis Ajinca(T)/Bamba Fall(D)
by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 24, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I think not.
I know that there are many folks in the “Bayless will never be a PG” camp and you folks frequently dismiss KP’s statements about Bayless as misdirection. I think there is a wealth of evidence to the contrary:
1) KP went out of his way at the end of the season to single out Bayless and Webster as the two players he thought were most likely to make big improvements over the summer.
2) The team apparently encouraged Bayless to travel to Ohio to workout with GO. If they were planning to trade Bayless, why would they do that? Particularly given that GO is considered to be a bit emotionally fragile. GO’s best buddy last season when he was hurt was reportedly T Green who was traded. This season, we have heard reports that he and Bayless have become buddies. Why would you go out of your way to set up a situation where GO is likely to become better friends with Bayless, only to trade him away?
3) We have heard reports that the most important goal for the summer league team is to give Bayless extended minutes to run the team. Again, why say this stuff if you are planning to trade the guy away?
4) Sergio publicly asked to leave. Why? Probably because he has been informed or is at least under the impression that Bayless is more in the teams long range plans than he is. Sergio can not run the risk of being bumped to the bench in his contract year.
I could go on and on. All indications are that Bayless is in the teams future plan. That doesn’t mean that they may not be trying to bring in Hinrich, or that they may not draft a third PG, but the notion that Bayless is a bust and the team has given up on him strikes me as pretty far-fetched.
Your point about what Bayless did or did not show in the limited and inconsistent minutes he got has been endlessly debated. Suffice it to say that many do not share your stated view.
by upper left corner on Jun 24, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree that Bayless will stay
But what part of misinformation is confusing? All of these examples could be used as signs that KP secretly wants to trade Bayless and is just making him sound untouchable for trade value purposes.
The Princess of Blazersedge
I think it's probably best not to lump this dialogue in with the ongoing pro/con Bayless dialogue
I think Bayless will stay. I think he will probably be pretty good. This has more to do with looking at what he did/does naturally and what Westbrook did/does naturally and the circumstances and discussion going on around last year’s draft. I’m not dumb enough to trust box scores; not smart enough to use advanced stats, but my eyes like what Westbrook does on the court.
by Montavilla Steve on Jun 24, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I see your point.....
…..I don’t want to sidetrack the discussion you are trying to generate.
I voted for KP having a matrix of good options. I don’t really think he duped the entire league into letting Bayless fall, however he may have been genuinely excited by getting a guy with the 11th pick who was reportedly very high on his list.
We have heard repeatedly that KP tries to target a player and then figure out how to get where he needs to in order to get that player. Based on his picks over the past three years, I think the truth in these reports is self-evident. He got LMA and Roy. He figured out how to get Rudy and Batum. Last year he did what he needed to do to get Bayless. It may have been that he was willing to draft either Augistin (sp?) or Bayless and took what was left, or he may have known more than we did and been aiming for Bayless all along.
In any case, I think the further down you pick, the more flexible you need to be. In KP we trust
by upper left corner on Jun 24, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
You've got me thinking now
Greg Oden’s best friends on the Blazers — Taurean Green and Josh McRoberts — were traded. Now Greg is apparently being set up to lose another buddy in Jerryd Bayless. Why would KP do this??? I couldn’t figure it out, but then …
I finally realized that KP is employing brain washing techniques used by everybody from the CIA to the Moonies to tear down Greg Oden’s personality and rebuild him as a cold-blooded assassin!!! Does anybody still believe that the “microsurgery” was necessary? So many things are clear to me now.
Yes, KP truly IS a Svengali, playing at a level that is beyond the comprehension or even the imagination of his competitors.
"Just kidding"
by CatMan2 on Jun 24, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
MAYBE
it was brain microfracture surgery………they shock certain parts of his brain and now he does not even know who Conley, McBob of Green even is……….
Conley: “Hey yo, Greg how you been dawg?!”
Oden: “Get away from me shorty, you don’t know me!!”
Conley: “Yo Greg, we played all through middle school, AAU and HS. We even made it all the way to the national championship game at OSU. That don’t ring a bell?”
Oden: Yo dude you’s a professional hangers on and I don’t know you man, get the hell out of here before I squash you under my kicks.You and your shaggy whiteboy baller wannabe with the Duke cutoff best be gettin out of here"
Collegiate stats:
NCAA Arizona:
Jerryd Bayless: 19.7pts, 4.0 asts, 3to
NAIA Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Terry Porter: 19.7pts, 4.3 asts, 2.33to
From all that I have heard
while Westbrook may of been the target, Bayless was rated higher on his board. In this draft I would have Rubio ranked #1 on my list, but a more reasonable choice would be Collison. However even if I was dead set on Collison, if a Rubio chance presented itself, you take it.
As KP has said lately, in this draft you need to be able to call an audible if things happen that are unexpected, and that is probably how he plays all drafts.
Collegiate stats:
NCAA Arizona:
Jerryd Bayless: 19.7pts, 4.0 asts, 3to
NAIA Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Terry Porter: 19.7pts, 4.3 asts, 2.33to
You are right on the money
Westbrook was KP’s guy, and I’m sure he was both annoyed and disappointed that he was off the board so quickly. I believe last year’s draft was the first one where he didn’t get “his guy”, though with the team’s record improving, it’ll be increasingly difficult for him to make waves in the draft.
As GMs go, so far we really have nothing to complain about. He took a team that was 21-61 and had the worst record in the league and made changes to personnel that resulted in 32-50, then 41-41, now 54-28 in just three years, based entirely on discharging unproductive and self-centered players and building through the draft. I’d argue in terms of a long term strategy, no one has done better in such a brief time.
The Blazers are so loaded with talent and good contracts it’s hard to trade with them – in order to get anything done the Blazers need to give up either young guys with a ton of upside or critical contributors to the team’s success (or both). Very few loose leaves to shake free for trades.
All that said, I think this year will be his biggest challenge to get results through the draft and free agency. Everyone is wise to him now, and though we have desirable assets, no GM is going to get taken advantage of.
by baduk on Jun 24, 2009 12:18 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
You say "I'm sure he was both annoyed and disappointed...."
Based on what? There were reports that Bayless was the top PG on KP’s board. Are you saying you know those reports were wrong? I know you are not a big fan of Bayless’ game, but your statement seems odd. Maybe you know something that the rest of us don’t?
by upper left corner on Jun 24, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe he's KP?
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
Maybe this is how he decides...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdjnD4AKVxw
Travis Outlaw fan from the beginning.
I haven't been watching southpark lately...
that clip reminds me of why those guys are great! I’m still chuckling…
by Montavilla Steve on Jun 24, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
You like the word svengail
and I find that interesting.
I would agree that he would have said good things about the player no matter if Bayless, Augustin or Wesbrook dropped
I don’t even think the Blazers had a deal “Bayless and Diogu for Jack and Rush and McBob” in place with Indiana. Just a deal that they should take the last of those 3 point guards should one of them drop, then trade him.
What I do believe is that the Blazer had Bayless somewhere high on their board. Every mock draft had Bayless going to Seattle for a long long time as the best guard after Rose and Mayo. Westbrook was seen rather as a defensive specialist. Riley had Bayless and Mayo come in at the last second to find out if they would maybe trade down and let another team take Beasley. So it’s not like KP created the mythology that teams were high on Bayless after the fact.
But
It comes back down to the fact that every other team that was "supposed’ to draft Bayless decided against it for some reason.
The Princess of Blazersedge
happens every year to someone… matters none in the long run
by danielfarrell on Jun 24, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
As an addendum to ...
Corner’s and Norsktrolls excellent observations I would like to ask one question.
Assuming for the moment that Westbrook was the guy at the top of Portland’s wish list, how can you claim that Pritchard made a “mistake” if the reason we didn’t land him was because a team with a higher pick snagged him first? And not just a higher pick, but one considerably higher.
It sounds pretty far fetched to me to believe that Seattle, with the #4 pick, decided to go with Westbrook primarily due to what they were hearing about him from Pritchard. That’s a bit akin to buying that huge new house in Gresham, rather than the one you initially planned on getting in Lake Oswego based on some real estate agent talking about how fantastic it is.
hakkaa päälle !
I have to get back to work, but wanted to reply quickly
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that KP made a “mistake” in drafting Rex. I’m wanting to do 2 things (hopefully) simultaneously in my post:
1. Get us to examine what our estimation is of KP and his abilities, and use this to qualify what we’re expecting in terms of the offseason deals that are about to ensue.
2. Think about what the decision-making process looks like for KP and co.
I’m using last summer’s draft/trades and discussion surrounding Bayless and Westbrook as a case study.
Hope I’ve clarified my position. I know I’ve seen you around these parts for awhile, so I’m sure you remember all the crazy talk about pritch-slapping and KP getting Bayless to fall to us and all that.
by Montavilla Steve on Jun 24, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
It is an interesting question.
You might want to hook up with Ben and pitch the idea of a book on KP. A sort of Moneyball type story. I don’t think he’d (KP) would want to do it – why let the competition see how he thinks – but who knows.
fyi – I’ve never really liked the pritch-slapping term. I have stated that I think Pritchard is one of the hardest working and sharpest GM’s in the league, and that I have a ton of faith in him, but I don’t believe I’ve gone in for the pritch-slapping party we see at times.
hakkaa päälle !
My theory is...
Portland already had the trade with Pacers in place thinking that at least one of those point guards would drop to them. Of those three (bayless, westbrook, augustin), the most likely to drop would have been Westbrook, so Seattle decided to try and screw Portland over by taking Westbrook first thinking that Bayless, and Augustin would never drop to the Pacers at 11, which would have left Portland scrambling for a point guard since the next few prospects were all forwards and centers.
"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.
"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.
If your picking 4
You pick the player you want, not the player that will make one of the other 30 teams the most unhappy.
You use picks from Phoenix in the late 20’s to mess with other western contending teams.
Westbrook a better fit than Bayless
I agree that Westbrook was KP’s preferred option last year and he should have been available at 11 when Indiana picked. Unfortunately for KP, Sam Presti had eyes for Westbrook and KP made the best deal he could since Seattle/OKC was not giving him up.
Bayless is an amazing talent and could be the PG of the future, but Westbrook with his commitment to defense, his athleticism and length was the ideal complement to Roy.
I see Westbrook as a younger Devin Harris, who is also an ideal complement for Roy.
However, there are a bunch of players who can fit in with Portland at the backup PG spot:
1) Darren Collison
2) Toney Douglas
3) Mario Chalmers
4) Ty Lawson
Both are significant upgrades from Sergio and provide a safety net in case Bayless does not prove himself capable of big minutes next season.
I didn't vote becuase I don't know what a steven segal is?
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

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