but I am not as convinced about Blake. I don’t think our PG position will improve this year. And Blake will continue to frustrate me with his overtly cautious game.

that the team as it is now comprised can challenge for the WCF, but is that our goal…a western conf finals appearance? The gap between making it to the WCF and winning the championship is vast (just ask Denver). Our goal is to win it all, and I would argue that we are not capable of winning the title withour some definate upgrades:

PG – “should improve dramatically this upcoming season.” On what basis? Blake is what he is, and is not likely to improve much more. Bayless should improve, but he will still be the back-up, so will that by itself be a major improvement? I think not. I believe the Blazers will make a move at the point, bringing in either a veteran like Hinrich, or possibly drafting a rookie if they can move up enough.

SG- Agree nothing needed here.

SF – This one is difficult. Everyone agrees on Batum’s potential, and I believe he is close to untouchable. The question is whether he is good enough now for us to make a serious run. And if he is not (which I feel he is a few years away), can we afford to stay with him as the starter during this time. So really the question is how well will Martell return from a whole year away? If he comes back well, then we are set. If not, we have issues. Outlaw does not flourish at the SF position. He is really a scoring PF (see below).

PF – Agree we are set with LMA as the starter. The question is what about the backup? Outlaw is a nice scorer off the bench, but he lacks defense, rebounding and toughness. I feel we do indeed need more of a banger as our backup PF, so this should also be addressed either via trade, free agency or the draft. Frye for sure and Outlaw will probably be moving on…

C – Agree we roll with Oden/Pryz.

In summary, our current roster is not capable of winning a title. We definately need to upgrade PG and back-up PF, and possibly need a short-term (next few years) upgrade at SF.

But I would point out that there is a possibility that the blazer’s won’t win more games than last year if the blazer’s make a point of going to Oden 15 to 20 times a game. He’s still raw offensively and the blazer’s can expect to lose some offensive efficiency as a result. That’s why I think if the blazer’s don’t acquire a point guard in the draft, they should try to get a good defensive guard to help stop penetrations in the paint, which, i think is the biggest weakness the blazers will have when they get into the playoffs.

8 of the Blazers 10 rotation players are under the age of 25. That is simply unheard of in the NBA. Add on the fact that this roster won 54 games, and four of our guys were rookies, and you get the real sense of just how young the team really is. Young players mostly get better, certainly the four rookies all look like they have potential for significant improvement. Webster also seems like a strong candidate for improvement, if his foot holds up.

Oden is the key, if he can stay healthy and reduce his fouling enough to average 30 minutes/game, we are in the hunt. Modest improvement in conditioning, restored athleticism, and defensive footwork will be enough to make GO a real force in the paint. A slight uptick in offensive performance, say one solid, consistent low post move, on top of his put backs and maybe a little pick and roll action, and Greg will be average 10-12 boards and 15-18 points. I think he is a lot closer to being a real weapon that a lot of folks realize. We don’t need him to make miraculous improvement; we just need him to make the improvement you would expect of a second year big man coming off of micro-fracture.

Adding Oden’s scoring potential to what we already have is going to make the team increasingly difficult to defend.
Last year, teams could concentrate on Roy and LMA, if the other guys were not hitting open shots the offense would tend to bog down. It happened frequently on the road. The shooters got tight, and everyone started standing around waiting for Roy to bail them out. Oden adds a huge threat that has to be accounted for and will cut down on teams ability to key so strongly on Roy and LMA.

Better PG play would certainly help, and I have been one of many hoping that Hinrich or Conley or some sort of moderate upgrade that would not gut our depth will become available. But I don’t think the need is so desperate that we should overpay in a trade, or overspend for an aging FA.

Opinions about Bayless vary widely, from those who have already labelled him a bust to those who think he is a sure-fire bet to be a star. My own position is enthusiastic optimism tinged with caution. I think he has all the physical tools and the right work ethic, but decision making is a very tough skill to predict. Some guys can develop it, some guys never do.

If we can’t get Hinrich or Conley or some other somewhat established PG, I can see trying to move up and take Lawson, or maybe Collison, as a sort of insurance policy against injury or Bayless failing to pan out. Lawson seems like a good character guy. His skill set is different enough from Bayless that he might help us defensively against the uber-quick, ultra small guards that give Blake so much trouble. Lawson comes across as a guy who would likely be OK with sitting while Bayless gets a decent shot at showing what he can do.

OTOH, I am skeptical about bringing in any of the top lottery pick PGs. If KP does so, he better be absolutely sure he has found a guy who is going to be the long term answer at PG, otherwise, we are looking at more PT controversy and the inevitable problems of trying to develop two highly rated young guys with little time for either. I am particularly skeptical of the really young guys because they are likely to need more time to be ready. If we are going to draft yet another PG, lets get someone who is either a sure bet starter, or someone who is an NBA ready back-up. No more gambles.

We simply do not have the minutes to develop the roster.

We can talk about Batum’s, Rudy’s and Bayless’ potential all we want, but there is a good chance there won’t be enough playing time to develop them. If Martel comes back healthy we have limited minutes to split between a lot of players.

Making a trade now makes a lot of sense.

a. We have cap space that we won’t have next year.
b. We have young players with evident potential and low salaries. If Batum, Trout or Martel spend most of next year getting garbage minutes their value is only going to decrease from where it’s at now. Channing was worth something last year. This year he’s not worth much even as a bargaining chip.
c. We have huge exploitable holes that will prevent us from getting to the next level. Any team with suspect pick and roll defense is going to be picked and rolled to death.
d. We are betting on potential instead of actual performance. If Batum or Bayless hit a ceiling lower than we need, we won’t be able to upgrade in 2 years. We’ll be at the luxury tax threshhold holding onto 5-6 role players searching for a starter for either the 1 or the 3.

I understand we all really want an upgrade at point guard, but even if we got a great player will Nate let him play the style of ball that lets a great pg do his thing? Sergio is pretty creative but if he has a couple bad pass’s he is benched. Nate likes that middle of the road tempo, he can talk all day about wanting his teams to fast break but you never see the team really get out and run hard on a to or long rebound which makes me think he is holding the team back for a reason. Clock management seems more a priority then running and gunning. I have no problems with Portland upgrading just not sure it will turn out any different then what we already are doing.