Mock Draft Review, Trades, and a Real-Life Wizards Deal

by Dave on Jun 24, 2009 12:53 AM PDT

Before we start with the Mock Draft analysis, a real-life note. As Ben has noted below ProBasketballNews is reporting that the Washington Wizards are trading Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov, Darius Songalia, and the #5 pick in this year's draft for Mike Miller and Randy Foye. This now gives the Timberwolves the 5th, 6th, 18th, and 28th picks in the draft. My first reaction is that they're never going to use all of those picks for themselves. Let the speculation begin on that score. Second, that pretty much echoes what the Minnesota GM did in our mock draft, though he got #17 instead of #5, albeit at less of a cost.

Which brings us to our mock draft. There were several things I liked about it this year. I loved being able to read the GM comments and your reactions to them. I enjoyed talking on the phone a little bit to the GM's. It made it feel more official somehow. It was interesting to hear voices attached to names. Most importantly it made the process go about three times as fast. We actually did the draft in a couple hours instead of a whole day. That feature is definitely staying. I also liked how the trade proposals were more muted this year. Part of that was the mandatory open conversation between GM's I think. Part of it may have also been the subdued nature of the talent pool. It's a lot harder imagining a huge name being traded for any of these guys that it has been in past years. Whatever the reason, the trades proposed were mostly solid. We still rejected a few but that was mostly for draft sanctity or "needs tweaking" reasons, not because they were outlandish. Fantastic job by GM's on that score.

The chief complaint about the draft this year was that it was more boring than usual, what with fewer big trades and also with the Blazers moving out of the first round. I don't feel too bad about that because there's a strong possibility that Thursday's action will also be understated. Unless this Minnesota pick-hogging opens up the 5th or 6th selections for cheap I don't see the Blazers paying the price to move up into the elite picks. There are too many question marks to justify the payoff. I could easily see a move into the middle-round picks, perhaps by outright purchase of a pick or using the trade exception. That could well be the biggest splash, though. If we're not getting up to 16-17 to make a run at Lawson or Blair I think the Blazers could do just what we did in the mock draft: bail on the first round and let some second-rounders fight it out for a position on non-guaranteed contracts. We may all leave Thursday evening saying, "That was IT?" But again, this is a sign of a good team. The season isn't supposed to hinge around the draft. You're not supposed to need rookies that badly.

Although there were odd picks here and there that actually added to the charm, if not the realism, of the mock draft. Every year in real life there are some picks that make you scratch your head. Every summer there's a bizarre trade that makes you think somebody is an idiot. Every year there are late first-rounders who slip into the second round and a couple projected second-rounders who make it up into the guaranteed money. The mock draft had all of that, plus a couple trades of established players. On the whole it wasn't too bad.

On to the specific trades for your review. Three trades were actually approved. We'll take them in order.

Golden State traded Marco Belinelli and the #7 pick to New Jersey for Shawn Williams and the #11 pick.

At first I questioned this deal because New Jersey appeared to be getting the best player and the best pick with no cap considerations coming into play to balance it out. But the Golden State GM made such a passioned and reasoned argument why he wanted Williams and the #11 that I figured this trade could be chalked up to GM quirkiness, which also happens most years. GM's will get visions that look odd to everyone else. Sometimes they're proved genius savants. Other times they fall flat on their face.

Minnesota traded Sebastian Telfair, Mark Madsen, Brian Cardinal, and the #28 pick to Philadelphia for Samuel Delambert and the #17 pick.

This trade elicited all kinds of screams when announced. I nixed trades for less imbalance than this one had, so some of those were justified. The truth is that I was in a hurry when I scanned it and read the picks wrong. The trade I copied down was Minnesota getting Delambert and #28 for the those three players and #17, which makes more sense. I had an itch that something was up but I didn't follow up on it. By the time I realized my error the draft was about to start and I figured it would cause more confusion to turn back than to let it go. You can look at it one of two ways. Either this qualifies as the "crazy trade" for the year or you can bank on Philly saving about $10 million in cap space with this deal in the summer of 2010. A ton of teams are trying to do that same thing. It cost the Sixers, but they are thinking about dealing Delambert in real life anyway. This could actually be a deal that looks good for Philly in a couple years. Right now Minnesota looks like it got away with murder but they're paying a lot of cash for the crime plus they just drafted a whole pile of rookies in what's widely considered one of the worst drafts ever.

New Orleans traded Tyson Chandler to Memphis for Darko Milicic, Darrell Arthur, and the #27 pick

In past years this trade would probably not have been allowed as it only involved the pick peripherally. But we needed some excitement and the Hornets want to trade Chandler.

Here are the trades that were rejected along with explanations...

The Thunder and Raptors proposed trading Chris Bosh and a protected future pick for Jeff Green, Earl Watkins, Chucky Atkins, #3 and #25

This was a a bold trade and one I thought about for a while. I actually like the deal for the Raptors as long as they can find somebody at #3 who can help. Taking on five players for one presented a bit of a problem. Also I wasn't confident that the Thunder could hold on to Chris Bosh. That's a pretty expensive rental. Finally the names were so big that they threatened to overshadow the draft itself, which is always a risk in these kinds of things. Combined that was enough to hold the deal back.

Chicago and New York proposed swapping Kirk Hinrich, #16, and #26 in this year's draft for Chris Duhon, Jared Jeffries, pick #8, and $3 million in cash.

I had to think about this one for a while. It's pretty close. Three things prevented it from going all the way. First it looked like we could be moving other picks in that range and we didn't want to bunch up all the trades in the same general area, lest it look like a war zone. This happened in years past and it's something I was acutely aware of this year. Second, this trade threatens to put Chicago in the luxury tax this year and only saves them about $2 million next year. There's not enough cap savings in the trade to justify taking on Duhon and Jeffries. Third, New York actually takes on more salary in the summer of 2010 with this deal. They've been trying like mad to dump salary for that summer. The reversal didn't make a ton of sense when all they're getting is Hinrich and an 8-spot jump in a weak draft.

And that was about it. Feel free to comment further on the trades, proposed or executed. Also, which GM do you think did the best job? You can define that by acquiring raw talent, getting the most value out of picks, doing what makes the most sense for their team, or however else you wish. Chime in below.

Thanks again to everyone who participated in the mock draft this year!

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Comments

Philly GM here

In my first post I said I wanted to dump Dalembert and I did that. I wanted to draft Lawson, but knew he wouldn’t be there at 17. He may in the real draft, but BE seems to rate him properly. This is a weak draft (Hollinger said this year’s 8 is the equivalent of a normal 18) so I knew I wouldn’t get anything special at 17. I wanted to trade my pick for Rafer Alston, but I felt 17 was too high so I had a chance to move Dalembert and move down so I could trade that pick for Alston. After the trade was finalized I never heard from Orlando’s GM again one way or another. My two goals were to dump salary and get a point guard. I spent three days planning something and it fell apart because another person didn’t come through. That’s life.

If I had kept my pick at 17 with Lawson gone I would have taken Collison or Teague anyways, so I got the player I would have if I’d stood pat but I also shed salary. Is getting the player you would have after moving down and moving a player I would have cut if there were NFL salary rules that bad of a trade? Is that even one of the 10 worst recent salary dumps as a result of this economy? Once again, got the player I would have taken if I kept my pick and did nothing, plus I dumped a guy with a 8 figure salary. Why was half the comments in the mock draft thread killing me?

by terryisntbald on Jun 24, 2009 2:37 AM PDT reply actions

Portland's GM Here

I tried to get a deal done to get the guy KP really wants in Tyler Hansbrough, and I just couldn’t get my management team to agree on the move. After missing on Hansbrough, getting out of the draft was the next best option.

by DraftTylerHansbrough on Jun 24, 2009 8:24 AM PDT reply actions

I vote for

Portlands gm for getting out of the way. The pressure to make a move is immense on this site and every other media outlet you can think of. Portland is a good team already #4th seed in the west tied for the nw division title. There is really no pressure other then to secure a backup pf this offseason. Why make a change to just make a change?

I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.

You get squeezing down to the exact things. Now it's not about fluff. It's down to deal points."

by Dragonage on Jun 24, 2009 8:27 AM PDT reply actions

Minnesota GM here

I don’t like the real Kahn deal nearly so much. I think Dalembert is a legit center, albeit in the less productive half of the bunch, but Etan Thomas is a big question mark coming back from his heart surgery. Plus, he gave up Miller, who was his only serious bargaining chip with league contenders until the trade deadline. Pecherov turns out to not be an NBA talent, and while Mullens may not be either at least we don’t know that yet. And Songalia is an undersized banger at the PF – something the Wolves arguably already have two of with Smith and Gomes.

It makes me wonder what two players he likes at #6 so much he had to get them both, or if he was sure Washington was going to ship the #5 out to a team that would pick Curry, my best guess for his choice for the #6 pick with Foye gone, so he had to grab it instead. I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

by baduk on Jun 24, 2009 9:11 AM PDT reply actions

I disagree on one point:

We may all leave Thursday evening saying, “That was IT?” But again, this is a sign of a good team. The season isn’t supposed to hinge around the draft. You’re not supposed to need rookies that badly.

There are very few teams that truely don’t need anything from the draft (either through drafting or draft night trades). One of those teams is the Lakers. I think if you’re on the verge of contention, and don’t do anything to improve your contending, you’ve sat back on your laurels a little too much. This isn’t to say I think the Blazers need a overhaul, but there are areas of improvement that do need to be addressed. If the general consensus is “Is that IT?”, I will be disappointed in management’s inability to recognize the team’s weaknesses and where the team needs improvement.

All aboard the Kirkwagon!

by Arby on Jun 24, 2009 9:15 AM PDT reply actions

But the draft may not be the place to do it

I think most people agree that we have some weak points. The O reported the other day that Paul Allen gave KP the green light (order) to do something significant.

What most people who went through that mock process recognized was that there are some interesting talents in this draft who have a chance of becoming impact players. However, there are very, very few who would be able to crack the Blazer’s current rotation, even with trading way up into the lottery.

Currently playing the role of the Atlanta Hawks GM in the Blazersedge.com 2009 NBA Mock Draft.

by hoopla-pdx on Jun 24, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions

Yep. Agree 100%.

Management is obviously inept if they come away from the draft having either drafted at #24 or traded out/down.

If that happens, I’m for putting you in the GM seat, as you are clearly more knowledgable on what Portland’s needs and weaknesses are than our current management group.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jun 24, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Good God

Unrelated but undeniably intriguing Warriors tidbit: Slender rookie Anthony Randolph, also known as the closest thing to an untouchable on the Warriors’ payroll, has gained 20 pounds and grown an inch to nearly 7 feet since the end of this past season.

Offseason:
PG Options: Mike Conley Jr(T)/Jrue Holiday(D)/Rodrigue Beaubois(D)
SG Options: Mickaël Piétrus(T)/Terrence Williams(D)/Paul Harris(D)
Forward Options: Serge Ibaka(T)/Taj Gibson(D)/Ater Majok(D)
C Options: Alexis Ajinca(T)/Bamba Fall(D)

by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 24, 2009 9:24 AM PDT reply actions

Bulls - Blazers chatter

Chicago, by all accounts, has been increasingly open in its willingness to move power forward Tyrus Thomas. Kirk Hinrich, meanwhile, is said to be prominent on Portland’s wish list given the Blazers’ growing pessimism about persuading Phoenix to part with Steve Nash via trade and their ability to sign Jason Kidd away from Dallas.

by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 24, 2009 9:25 AM PDT reply actions

Abundantly clear that there isn't much quality after 22-23 in this draft

There just wasn’t anything that looked remotely interesting for the Blazers by the time their pick came around. If they don’t trade up, getting out definitely makes sense.

There probably won’t be too much interest, but there were some SF’s left with some upside.

Currently playing the role of the Atlanta Hawks GM in the Blazersedge.com 2009 NBA Mock Draft.

by hoopla-pdx on Jun 24, 2009 9:29 AM PDT reply actions

Being in the middle of it...

I think most of the GMs did a credible job representing for their adopted teams. I s’pose my fear was that we were going to see moves that somehow benefited the Blazers, and that wasn’t the case at all. People were responsive and very few serious trade offers were just left hangin’ in the breeze.

I was disappointed not to be able to move up far enough to grab Jrue Holiday for the Pacers, but I was happy to see Jonny Flynn fall to me at 13 after Lawson got snapped up early (and rightfully so, I’m thinking).

Can’t wait to see what really happens tomorrow… thanks Dave

Are you a Mexi-CAN or a Mexi-CAN'T?

by raggmopp on Jun 24, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions

[Dallas GM] I tried to move up a few times, but ultimately picked where I was at #22

In real life I think the Mavericks will try to convert their two main trade chips Jerry Stackhouse ($7 million, but only 2 guaranteed so it’s a “instantly save 5 million” chip) and Erick Dampier ($11 million expiring) in trades to acquire veterans, not better draft picks. They are in “win now” mode as long as Dirk and Terry are still in their prime. Dallas also has been reluctant to part with Josh Howard.

Trading Partners: They reportedly talked to the Wizards about the #5 a lot but ultimately didn’t go through with it (they could certainly have matched what the Wolves offered). I tried the same, but suggested a smaller deal. I also tried to move up with Indiana (for the toxic contract of Jamaal Tinsley) and NY for a major swap that would have shed my three worst contracts and brought me back the pick and Jeffries and Curry (both semi-useful to the Mavs). I don’t think the deal happens in real life since it would achieve a major goal for the Knicks to get ready for 2010 and no team really wants to be the one that made a LeBron dynasty possible. And in this mock it wasn’t possible because Eddy Curry has an ETO and thus can’t be traded before July 1st on the trade machines (we have just seen in the Wizards – Wolves trade that this is not a real hindrance, just sign a paper and you won’t use it and you are done).

Issue with this mock: This is also my only major gripe with this mock draft, it was hard to figure out which deals would be allowed or not that would have been possible in real life. Communication channels here were a bit confusing (comments + email). Interesting to observe was that there was a lot of initial activity, then some pause, then deals got done on the last day.

Goals/Targets: Assuming Dallas would be able to retain Kidd if they wanted (or if not at least acquire a player like Raymond Felton in free agency to replace him), I focused on the other need of the Mavs: A better starting shooting guard over Wright, or at least to become more athletic on the wing since Howard isn’t exactly an attacker either and his backups are scrubs.

So my targets were DeRozan if I would have traded up to #8 with NY, but I wasn’t really confident about that one. DeRozan is maybe the biggest wildcard in this draft to me. He can be a Vince Carter-level talent, or a complete bust (horrible outside shooting, not efficient, not a great rebounder in college). So I wasn’t too sorry that didn’t work.

Next target would have been Gerald Henderson of Duke, who looks to become a very good all-around player. He draws comparisons to Michael Finley, a player who was highly successful for Dallas and the Spurs. I knew he would likely go in the Indiana-Charlotte range, so that would have been the target there. Terrence Williams might have been another option in this range, though I am not quite as high on him. I see him as a Raja Bell-type if he works out in the NBA.

From an opportunistic perspective the only player who dropped a bit was Jeff Teague (PG/SG). I was briefly thinking to go with him, but while he is great finishing around the rim he isn’t the best shooter and most of all it’s not clear if he has the mentality of a point guard. He strikes me a bit like a Bayless-light, and teams could get that e.g. with a player like Felton in free agency. So I decided against him. Taking Darren Collison would have been just a move to create a different discussion among Blazers fans, not what I really expect the Mavs to do though it could happen :)

At my range the options I liked were UNC’s Wayne Ellington who I think gets a little underrated at the moment. He was a consensus #8 out of high school (RSCI) and is one of the greatest shooters. Problem is that he is not very athletic and not the greatest defender. It will be interesting to see how he pans out in the pros.

Since those are issues for the Mavericks, I ultimately went with Omri Casspi. He is smart, motivated, tall for a SF but not a tweener in my opinion, a decent perimeter defender, and can play very good in transition which would fit the style of current PGs Kidd and Barea as well as a replacement like Felton. He hits his outside shots, and is pretty close to being NBA-ready having played professionally in Europe for a while with at least as much success as Nic Batum. He could be a very capable backup to Howard, and potentially replace him if Howard leaves or gets moved down the road.

by Norsktroll on Jun 24, 2009 11:07 AM PDT reply actions

I wish I got Chris Bosh..

sigh..

sigh.. haha

by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 24, 2009 11:34 AM PDT reply actions

Raptors GM here

I desperately tried to make the two team trade a three team trade. The 5-1 was a problem. I tried packaging Watson, Atkins and #25 for Tyson Chandler ( I should have improved the offer, but the only other offer came from a team with New Orleans division. I didn’t think they would free up cap space by send Chandler to a division rival.) After that, I tried to package Watson, Atkins and #25 for Dalembert and #17. Unfortunately that trade fell through also. After that, I tried to trade the same package for Camby or Kaman which seemed like it would have made sense with the Clippers loaded front court. All of my efforts to turn a 5-1 into a much more reasonable 3-1 failed.

With the #3 pick, the first choice would have been James Harden. He would have been perfect for the rebuild that I had envisioned. With three excellent perimeter shooters in Calderon, Green and Bargnani, adding a SG who could create for other and get to the rim (not to mention he would be a fourth excellent perimeter shooter) would create a comparable half-court offense to the Blazers (though that lineup may do a better job of executing the Blazers offense (4 potential 40% 3P shooters in the starting lineup.) In addition, those players like to run.

Had Memphis taken Harden, I would have had a difficult decision. With no real center, Thabeet should have been an easy decision, but Thabeet has no post presence, and no one on the roster was good at getting penetration which would be a nightmare in the half court.

The other option may have been strategic suicide. I thought long and hard about drafting Rubio. Rubio would be an even better fit for a Brian Colangelo team than Calderon because he is better on the fast break, in traffic and on defense.

If only I could have moved those expirings and #25 for a center… that would have been an immediately rebuilt lineup that probably would have had a better record than last year’s Raptors:
PG: Calderon
SG: Harden
SF: Green
PF: Bargnani
C: Chandler, Dalembert, Camby, Kaman
Sixth Man: DeRozan

Toronto Raptors GM

by Salem Stephen on Jun 24, 2009 12:05 PM PDT reply actions

it shoulda happened

since im presti i would have convinced Bosh to stay.. of course in real life there is no way OKC makes the trade without signing Bosh to an extention.. but he is from TX and its close to home and he gets to play with Durant.. so he might do it.

by GreatOden'sRaven on Jun 24, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions