We're one step ahead of KP now

by chrischa on Jun 20, 2009 11:29 AM PDT Comment 62 comments

KP is renowned for being one step ahead of the fans, the media, and often times other GM's. He has an outstanding team of professional scouts and experts who chart and graph just about every feasible scenario in preparation for the upcoming draft. He brags of running through 3 blackberry batteries a day and is known for making calls to other GM's just to bounce ideas off of them. How could we, the fans on blazersedge, possibly predict the unpredictable? How could we ever know what KP is going to do before he does it? KP could go in a thousand different directions and his staff are experts of the highest caliber who are fluent in league rules and salary cap issues. He is privy to the most heavily guarded information and I believe the saying goes, once a rumor is reported by the media its already dead right?

On the other hand, Blazersedge has thousands of fans who do nothing but throw out trade and draft scenarios. Every day. Realistic or not, KP or anyone for that matter, would be hard pressed to come up with a scenario that hasn't already been proposed, discussed, and probably been shot down for 5 different reasons. These proposals are so popular amongst fans, Dave had to pass a measure to effectively ban or restrict fanposts that discussed trade ideas at one point. And even the most ridiculous, unrealistic or downright impossible trade offers or draft targets are usually met with intelligent discourse here.

We have members who understand the ins and outs of the salary cap and use this forum to inform those who don't. We access websites that give us measurements, statistics, game film and opinions from independent experts and those who know the players best. We are infatuated (not all to the same degree of course) with the team and what June 25th will bring us, so we obsess over the options. And what comes from that obsession? A never ending supply of ideas, thoughts, and scenarios that at some point will have to become reality even though its akin to swinging a bat in the dark...you're bound to hit something.

So is it possible for KP to still pull a rabbit out of his hat in this age of information? He has in the past, true. But Blazersedge has evolved, the media has evolved; we feel challenged to predict things before they happen for whatever reason. And maybe thats what will make it so much more exiciting--the unexpected happening--but at this point no matter which direction KP decides to go I think its safe to say its already been covered in one way or another. To me, that doesn't detract from what he does. If anything, it makes me feel more connected to the team as a fan. And I'm sure those of us who accurately predict what is going to happen on June 25th will let the rest of us know about it shortly thereafter.

So whats your prediction? try to keep it short and sweet, you don't need to explain your reasoning but try to stay away from the more common Kidd, Nash, Hedo, Curry, Blair and Hansboro stuff. I think KP could be a lot more creative than that :)

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Heresy, Chrischa!

The third chapter of the book of Drexlerations warns us:

“Nay, and if thou shalt esteem thyself above thy Pritch, a mighty slap from on high will come unto thy face and smite thee.” Amen, and amen.

GG MFer!
-joel przybilla

by hossticles on Jun 20, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions 8 recs

ha nice

by HurricaneDayne on Jun 20, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey I honestly don't care if I or anyone here calls it before it happens this year

I just want KP to do whats best for the team and I have absolute faith that he will. I’m just not exactly expecting to be shocked by what happens on draft day; sorry if i’ve angered the gods!

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 21, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It makes me wonder

if KP follows BE and gets ideas from us, the fans!

To summarize: Wade too quick, Kobe too skilled, LeBron too physical - Batum

by Ltlgto on Jun 20, 2009 11:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

can't answer for the idea getting,

but KP’s reading of BE is well established.

GG MFer!
-joel przybilla

by hossticles on Jun 20, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For all we know...

…he might be a regular poster here. In fact, maybe he posts trade ideas here on a regular basis to see what the fans think. Or maybe he posts trade ideas that are not at all what he plans to actually do, just to throw us off. Or, maybe I’m KP trying to throw you off of my trail.

Oh, the intrigue…

by twp63 on Jun 20, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

kp

probably has 200 be accounts so that no one ever knows who he is

fire nate before its too late

by pipgras on Jun 20, 2009 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I bet he is actually everyone here (except for me)

by pualo on Jun 20, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

and me...everyone hates me....

(not that it’s a bad thing, I’m here for their input and to throw my wrench into the machine, either way I love em)

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Jun 20, 2009 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he's me

he mind controlling me from afar. If I’m ever busted at work, that’s my excuse. I’ll blame KP for possessing my body and writing sheer brilliance while disguised as an idiot.

"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.

But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html

by ratbastird on Jun 22, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it was KP who floated that the Oden for Love thread

just to see if that would get him tar and feathered.

by NWfan on Jun 21, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What he does has always been far more imaginative than any we discuss

We have merely worked through the possibilities to be simultaneously amazed and kicking ourselves to not see the obvious

by jaywalker on Jun 20, 2009 12:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree, hence the post

I don’t see how an idea KP comes up with is anymore “imaginative” than the same idea by 10 anonymous fans.

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 20, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'll get players that we have talked about (because that would be all of them).

And he’ll probably do it in some ways somewhat similar to something that’s been discussed. But there will undoubtedly be some difference in details at least, because there are just far too many permutations for us to talk about them all exactly.

by pualo on Jun 20, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have plenty of faith in the front office to do something smart

But I’m more concerned that other front offices undeserving of such respect might be watching us to try to get a jump on KP. Could we be doing him a disservice or are we a smoke screen?

by Decaf on Jun 20, 2009 12:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry if this post comes off as arrogant

I just feel like there is a finite amount of options at KP’s disposal and chances are, we’ve already hit the ones he’s either entertaining or the one he will actually put into motion. It doesn’t lessen what he’s doing, I just think its cool that this fan community is that large and creative.

I think the only way we could ever effect another GM would be to maybe effect the fan’s of other teams over a proposal and to create so much ill will toward that GM for potentially making a move their fans would hate that they MAYBE re think the idea. But I bet this hardly ever happens. I mean, Chris Wallace got crucified and probably saw it coming when he traded Gasol for Kwame but he has a boss/owner to answer to. GM’s don’t really answer to fans or ESPN talking heads. Don’t get me wrong, guys like Mike Dunleavy don’t enjoy being openly hated by everyone but last time I checked, he still has a job.

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 20, 2009 12:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you are right in some ways and wrong in others

True, there is “wisdom of the crowd”, and this crowd is pretty wise to begin with. So in some ways we are close. A professional front office still has some advantages. To name a few:

A consistent scouting and talent evaluation process, building books/databases on all (at least decent) players in the league. Because it is consistent, they can run through hundreds of mock drafts and trade ideas basing it on the same methods.
Access to a video tracking system that logs all games in the NBA, NCAA and all major European leagues. Show me all assists Bayless has had in the last year? No problem. While some sites (e.g. DX) have access to that too and you could do a video editor course, the common fan doesn’t.
Access to advanced historical stats, such as the Elias Sports Bureau. ESPN gives tidbits of that, but there is more.
Team proprietary stats databases (Dallas, Blazers, Rockets, Celtics, …)
Team consultants for all kinds of fields like statistics and communications and medicine, and lawyers
Professional trained scouts who track players over years and years. I heard about obscure player “Bemba Fall” last week. Buchanan knows him for 5 years. A Ukrainian player jumped high into the second round mock drafts last week after he confirmed to stay in the draft. I have never seen him play, neither have 99.9% to 100% of all BE readers. But some NBA GM apparently has.
And maybe most of all: Contact with other GMs, scouts and league executives as a sounding board to find out what value a player has in the league, who is interested in what, etc.

Could we come up with exactly the same idea, or even a better one? Probably. But rather accidentally. And what makes sense on paper doesn’t need to fly when dealing with the egos of other GMs and owners.

by Norsktroll on Jun 20, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs

You nailed it.

by AK1984 on Jun 20, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was going to make two of those points

and look, you made a bunch more. Absolutely right, Norsk!

Sticking up for Travis Outlaw since 2008 and Steve Blake since two weeks ago.

by Kaboomm on Jun 20, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you pretty much put my argument into bullet points

I spent the first paragraph listing the advantages you listed. then, yes, I talked about how great the members of BE are but likened our predictions to “swinging a bat in the darkness.” so I’m trying to figure out where we disagree

You’re kinda right, Bemba Fall WAS an unknown to 99% of Bedgers. But its not the draft yet and guess what, we know about him. If there were prospects unknown to the media/fans 6 months ago, we sure as heck know about them now (or could with a little bit of internet research). And of course KP could pull out a name most people aren’t familiar with with 1 of 4 second rounders, but the info is out there (in far less detail to be sure).

Again, not saying KP isn’t brilliant, not saying he doesn’t hold all the cards (cause he does), not saying Bedgers aren’t intelligent, but AM saying that just by sheer numbers alone, the chances are that there aren’t a lot of “out of left field” moves left to make.

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 20, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe with regard to the first round. The second round this year is as unpredictable as ever.

How many people have predicted to acquire Ömer Asik last year, and instantly trade him for three future second round picks? That’s not something fans think a lot about, since it doesn’t provide immediate benefit.

I like the post, and by sheer volume there it is a good chance the Blazers (and other teams) will mainly address what their fans think they should address and a decent chance that the move was rumored or predicted somewhere.

by Norsktroll on Jun 20, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You had mentioned that BE was a step ahead. If we hear about Fall from KP, we aren’t ahead of KP. I still enjoyed your post. It does highlight the power of obsessive group think.

by pxilpooshr on Jun 22, 2009 3:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One other bullet

He also has contact with the coaches, players and prospects. He get’s real face time with these people and access to their responses that aren’t carefully filtered for the press. He knows a lot more what type of people they are and who will fit in on the draft board. You can learn more about the personality of a player in 5 minutes of honest face-time than by watching hours of film.

by boppitywop on Jun 20, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As usual

A more intelligent reply than I could come up with from a more educated fan. I particularly agree with the stats point and discussions with other GMs. The organized scouting of all potential players world wide also makes a whole lot of sense.

by NoGame on Jun 21, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wish I could rec your on the mark thoughts here 100 times.

Norsktroll, we need to put your post on a timer where it automatically appears on the main page every few months just to remind we GM wannabes that we’re all playing with a single shot rifle vs. an AK47.

Excellent post!

Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave

Also: COMCAST SUCKS!

by TwoDeep on Jun 21, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You mean he doesn't just go to 82 games . com.

by We-B-Dunkin on Jun 21, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Realistic or not, KP or anyone for that matter, would be hard pressed to come up with a scenario that hasn’t already been proposed, discussed, and probably been shot down for 5 different reasons.

Yeah, I remember how everyone had already discussed to death the concept of KP sending Zach to NY for Frye, Jones and Rudy. And of course, that trade for Bayless last year that everyone had scouted out ahead of time. (Remember all those “we’re trading Jack for Bayless” posts?)

by Timmay! on Jun 20, 2009 12:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Fans have a hard time to accept the concept of "addition by subtraction" or trades that are made for financial reasons that make no on-court sense in general

The Zach deal might not even have been all that good. But it achieved it’s main purpose, to let LaMarcus develop.

by Norsktroll on Jun 20, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, and

I don’t think anyone here would’ve presumed that KP would’ve accepted Steve Francis’ contract as part of that Z-bo deal because Paul Allen would agree to write it off

When it comes to the front offices of NBA teams, there are wheels within wheels. We’re all just trying to dodge the trolleys and hear the news while it’s still fresh. Then debate it ad nauseum, afterwards

by two4larue on Jun 20, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

absolutely Norsktroll

and although there was certainly a percentage of bedgers who had trouble understanding that concept. there was another percentage who wanted that move done months before it finally happened. theres just so many thoughts and opinions on this fluid website. Its just highly unlikely that a deal will be made next week that no one has thought of in at least general terms.

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 20, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Zach deal might not even have been all that good.

You know, I was thinking about that the other day. At the time, a few people hated it, a few loved it, and everyone else was unsure.

But two years later, let’s be honest:

- Would you trade Rudy for Zach, straight-up?
- Would you trade Frye for Zach?
- If we had James Jones, would you trade him for Zach?

The answer is probably no for all three, but for different reasons. Right around then, I realized just how well we made out… even though it was really an addition-by-subtraction (which is why we wouldn’t make the Frye trade now), we also got a player we legitimately wouldn’t trade on a basketball level (Rudy).

I have to give KP points on that one.

by Timmay! on Jun 20, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rudy was a separate deal for $3 million cash, we just used the trade exception from the Z-Bo trade(s) to absorb Jones

by Norsktroll on Jun 20, 2009 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I know. But while they were separate transactions, they were tied together

In fact, KP basically treated them like one transaction in the press conference afterwards (the one where he said some superlative stuff about Jones, but couldn’t say his name, so everyone started speculating that he’d acquired another player as well)

by Timmay! on Jun 20, 2009 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

".....he’d acquired another player as well"

Correction…another acclaimed player as well. I remember the banter about the word “acclaimed”. “Is JJ acclaimed?” “No way!!” …..back and forth…. back and forth. It is funny now

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Jun 20, 2009 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks 92!

“Acclaimed”… that’s it! I didn’t track down the superlative he’d used in a quick search, nice work. :)

by Timmay! on Jun 20, 2009 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

KP had the foresight

to see Jones go onto a steller 3pt showcase for that one season. It was cleary acclaimed for those withthe right crystal ball.

by NWfan on Jun 21, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

trading zbo came as 0 surprise

fairly certain frye and draft picks were discussed heavily so not sure if you’re trying to be sarcastic or not. Was there a post that detailed that exact trade? probably not. was that deal out of left field and shocking to EVERY bedger? I don’t think so. Plus, I feel like Blazersedge has gotten stronger, bigger, and smarter over the past year. I certainly don’t remember there being this much attention being paid to trades and drafts in the past. but maybe you’ve been around longer than me….

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 20, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I certainly don’t remember there being this much attention being paid to trades and drafts in the past. but maybe you’ve been around longer than me

It’s like this every year, though it’s natural for the pure number of posts to increase as more users arrive.

BTW I was indeed being sarcastic. :) While it was no surprise Zach was traded, that trade in particular was mostly out of left field. Nobody saw that combination coming, especially Steve Francis and the trade exception that turned into Rudy.

by Timmay! on Jun 20, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The day before there was a thread about Frye + Steve Francis for Zach.

Reactions were generally negative because most people thought Zach had more value; I can’t remember what people expected in return, but it was more than Francis/Frye. I don’t remember whether the pick was mentioned.

by wepto on Jun 20, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I think the rumor broke the day before, but everyone dismissed it

Not 100% sure, but I think that’s what happened.

by Timmay! on Jun 20, 2009 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still think theres a very good chance he will trade for / draft somebody not even mentioned on here.

by dario argento on Jun 20, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Collective Intelligence

Welcome to the world of the Internet.

I hear KP, himself, posts on these boards from time to time.

"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over. The others-the living-are those who pushed their control as far as they felt they could handle it, and then pulled back, or slowed down, or did whatever they had to when it came time to choose between Now and Later."

by In a Blue Raincoat on Jun 20, 2009 6:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I think he was just floating a test balloon about trading Brandon Roy straight up for Luis Scola just today...

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jun 20, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did we have to give up any of our picks?

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Jun 20, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay here is an idea for a veteran free agent point guard no one has thought about yet: Jason Williams

Of Sacramento and winning a championship with Miami fame. He signed with the Clippers for the last season to back up Baron Davis, then decided for undefined reasons that he didn’t want to play there, and the NBA suspended him for one year failing to fulfill his contract obligations. He applied for reinstatement before the playoffs hoping a contending team would sign him as a veteran, but was denied. Yet if I’m not mistaken that one-year ban should be over now/by July 1st or shortly after that.

He will be 34 in November when the new season starts. I wouldn’t suggest to bring him in as a starter, he isn’t as good anymore as he once was. Just as a backup player with veteran experience if that is what we need/want. He would come at a much cheaper price than Nash or Kidd or even Miller, reportedly his deal with the Clippers would have been for the veterans minimum (ca. $1.5. million in his case). White Chocolate replacing Spanish Chocolate.

Well, how is that for “out of left field thinking”?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html

by Norsktroll on Jun 20, 2009 9:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Is he "tough"?

By that I mean, does JW he have that mental toughness and BBIQ that KP, Nate and Monty crave?

If he does, you may be on to something. One thing’s for sure, we haven’t heard KP talking about him so your idea has a chance

by two4larue on Jun 20, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When he was playing for memphis

Hubie Brown tagged him as a future coach

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 20, 2009 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh, Jason Williams' terrible attitude was an underlying reason why Hubie Brown quit coaching.

http://www.hoopsvibe.com/nba-blog/jason-williams-speaks-on-his-past-ar32453.html

Anyhow, Williams would be a hideous fit with the Portland Trail Blazers. It’d take likely less than a month before he and Nate McMillan got into a shouting match with each other over what the duties of a point guard. Williams’ free-wheeling style would clash with McMillan’s rigid personality like oil and water.

by AK1984 on Jun 21, 2009 5:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can just imagine McMillan's face when JW jacks up a long 3 with 17 seconds on the shot clock

Followed by a giggle from Sergio, “hee hee heee, look who’s coming to sit next to me.”

by NWfan on Jun 21, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nate doesn't mind shots taken in the first 6 seconds of the shot clock

as long as they’re dunks, lay-ins or wide open 3 pointers hoisted by near-40% 3pt shooters

it’s the contested fall-away jumpers that go “clank!” with 5-18 seconds left on the shot clock that Sarge tends to frown upon

by two4larue on Jun 21, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was during the honeymoon period

before the fallout and after Hubie had “tamed” Williams

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 21, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe coach of a inner-city JV team as part of his probation

Jason Williams and Bonzi Wells almost gave poor Hubie a heart attack, and Fratello quit because of him. Even the laid-back Rick Adelman was tired of his erratic play in Sacramento.

That Steve Nash is exactly the same as Kirk Hinrich, but worse.
by NBA Observer on Apr 8, 2009 12:23 PM CDT

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 21, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you are saying you don't like it :-(

I’m just trying to go with the flow and not be all negative in this thread that I like more than my introductory reply might indicate. And while people want to bring in Kidd and Nash and trade up for Rubio all day, Williams would be a nice mix of veteran experience and more creative play at a fraction of the cost. Not saying it will happen at all. Just an unusual idea.

by Norsktroll on Jun 21, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 21, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like it!

Better than rehashing another chris paul pipe dream

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 21, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So... This is just the 1000 monkeys with 1000 typwriters thing then?

Only with trade ideas?

Cool.

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Jun 21, 2009 9:36 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

that's exactly what this is!

NAILED it!

though to be fair to more sensitive blazersedge readers, calling them monkeys with typewriters is a little outdated – they’re called laptops.

GG MFer!
-joel przybilla

by hossticles on Jun 21, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

I think I like it. we are no longer bedgers (never liked that term anyway). we are now monkeys.

The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave

by chrischa on Jun 21, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey hey

we’re the Monkees!

Blazeredge is like takin’ the last train to Clarksville and never getting off

by two4larue on Jun 21, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I can't post my prediction

While running a myriad of possible scenarios, I came across one that is realistic yet spectacular for the Blazers. Needless to say, I think I’ve hit upon the scenario that I believe that the Blazer front office will make reality over the next couple of months. I’d post it, but I can’t risk the possibility of any of the other NBA franchises getting even the slightest indication of what this amazing set of transactions entails. Sorry, but I love the idea of this all happening more than I love you, my fellow posters. I’ll say just this – it involves moves that will take place not only on/around draft day, but also after July 9th when the Moratorium is lifted.

However, when these moves are brought to full fruition, be assured that I will proudly proclaim, “I told you so.”

by Storyteller on Jun 22, 2009 12:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs