One fan's guess on how draft night might go down

by 52therim on Jun 20, 2009 8:36 AM PDT

This is all pure speculation and if any of this goes down as I suggest, I will be as surprised as any of you. The major point of this speculation is that POSSIBLY what we do may be determined by what another team, picking in the lottery, does. Also, that who we draft totally depends on which free agent we have decided to target and that depends not only on who we want, but who we think we can sign. Many of the free agents I would imagine KP has interest in have been rumored to be difficult to pry away from their existing clubs.

So let's make some assumptions that seem to be true based on the rumors we are hearing.

1). KP would like to upgrade the talent at the PG position. Sergio is likely gone, possibly to NY for the tpe and future considerations. We have had some discussions with Chicago regarding the availability of Hinrich, but the Bulls are hoping for something bigger than Blake and cap space and are waiting to see what else becomes available (hoping for Bosh or Amare but likely to be disappointed). KP views Bayless as a capable backup and is comfortable with Blake being our starting pg next year if that's how it works out. A rookie could replace Sergio and give us options when Blake's contract expires.

2). The other huge need is to add some toughness. A rebounder. A banger to backup LaMarcus. This could be addressed with a lopsided trade, but I haven't heard of many good options. Teams that have this player, don't typically want to give him up. There are several intersting options as free agents, but do the good ones want to come here knowing that they have zero chance of starting or getting big minutes barring injuries. How much can we afford to pay a backup? Can this guy get paid more someplace where he has a larger role.

3.) It seems like we will draft to attempt to satisfy one of the above needs (pg or pf) and then use our cap space to satisfy the need not addressed in the draft. We should be able to get a far better (or at least more ready to help) player with the cap space than in the draft.

So what happens on draft night depends on which free agent you target. This is my list of FA we should be looking at (by position)

SF (You'll notice I didn't list SF as a need in the assumptions I am not buying in to the Turkoglu talk.)

Trevor Ariza- He doesn't really fit a need, but he's a nice young player and somebody needs to compete with the Lakers for his services so he doesn't sign there for a "below-market" deal. We need the Lakers in Luxury tax hell. Liklihood of landing him: slim

Jason Kidd- Obviously great in his prime, but unsure how much he has left. Certainly would not be a long-term answer at pg. Would be expensive. Says he wants to stay in Dallas. I would personally prefer Blake with his outside shooting at this point in their careers. The only upgrade here would be defending the bigger, stronger pg in the league. I think that is offset by his inability to cover the quicker PGs. Liklihood of landing him: average

Ramon Sessions- Young scoring PG who creates easy shots for teammates with his penetration. Fits our window. Could be considered a young Andre Miller (which to me makes him more attractive than Miller). Needs to develop into a better perimeter shooter and a better defender. Is he better for this team than Blake? It depends on what you want to put next to Roy. If you want a PG that sits outside and can hit the open 3, he's not your guy. A little scary that the Bucks can match any offer, but they are on record as planning to avoid the luxury tax. Liklihood of landing him: average to good

Miller, Bibby, Nash etc.- Any one could be a short-term upgrade at a very high cost. I would prefer to keep Blake.

Conley, Hinrich - Definitely options, but we have to have a willing trading partner. I think even if Conley gets traded it will be to another team offering a better package (unless we are willing to give up Rudy and I wouldn't). Liklihood to get Hinrich: average to good

Lamar Odom- Similar to Ariza, make the Lakers pay to keep him. He meets our needs, but wants to be a Laker and I don't see the Lakers letting him go. Liklihood to get him: slim

Brandon Bass- I love his game. He would be great, but if you were him would you come and be LaMarcus' backup? Cuban will pay him. Liklihood to get him: slim

Antonio McDyess- Surprisingly effective at his age and with his injury history. He seems like he would be a nice veteran influence. Just what Nate has been looking for. He will surely have many teams interested in his services. Would you pick the Blazers over other teams if you are looking for a ring? Maybe. Liklihood to get him: average to good

Leon Powe- Very effective player in Boston. When KG went out the Celtics offensive efficiency numbers went up. Powe is no KG, but he is a very solid backup. Would probably be willing to come to Portland as he was a Pac-10 player. Would not be available until after the all-star break, but you may get an injury discount on his salary. Celtics in salary cap hell. Liklihood to get him: good

Chris Anderson- Interesting player. Enjoys his role in Denver. Would have a much smaller role here. Does he fit the culture? I would take him. Liklihood to get him: slim

Joe Smith, Drew Gooden etc.- I keep Travis and draft a backup pf

So summarizing the FA pool of guys that we have a better than average chance of signing: Sessions, McDyess, and Powe. Hinrich is in the mix if we can swing a trade. So what do we do on draft night? Some have suggested it depends on what Memphis does with #2. If they go with Rubio then we go after Conley. I disagree. I think it depends on what Milwaukie does at #10. If they draft a pg, they seem to have interest in Flynn, then it would seem very unlikely that they would match a Blazer offer for Sessions. We draft Pendergraph (or Hansbrough if he falls) at #24. We can continue to negotiate with Chicago for Hinrich. If they won't agree to a deal, Sessions is a real nice fallback.

If, on the other hand, Milwaukie were to decide to go with a big at #10, maybe Earl Clark, we may need to reconsider our plan. That would be a sign to me that they have decided to match any reasonable offer for Sessions. If we go big with our pick and Chicago doesn't play ball for Hinrich... we have limited options to upgrade the PG spot. In that situation I would make an effort to move up to grab Lawson or Maynor and then look to McDyess or Powe as free agents.

Is it possible that what happens at #10 will have a huge impact on what the Blazers decide to do? I don't know, but it's a theory.

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I don't think so

KP views Bayless as a capable backup and is comfortable with Blake being our starting pg next year if that’s how it works out. A rookie could replace Sergio and give us options when Blake’s contract expires.

I think KP views Bayless as more then a capable backup, more like the future starter

Draft Cole Aldrich 2010

by jlarose78 on Jun 20, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions

I think he just means next season

I think it is a pretty sure bet that Bayless won’t be starting when the season begins

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Jun 20, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions

And if he is...

It’s either YAY Bayless is awesome or DANG Blake got arrested for killing someone in an illegal underground MMA tournament funded by the mafia.

WAY TO GO, BLAKE.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 20, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Another Reason

Why we should draft James Johnson (sparring partner/ coach for Blake)

Draft Cole Aldrich 2010

by jlarose78 on Jun 20, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions

He was watching to much of ......

……this

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Jun 20, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions

KP doesn't expect Bayless to be more than a capable backup next year...

but if you knew that Bayless was going to develop into a 1st rate NBA PG you probably wouldn’t go after Sessions. We don’t know how Bayless will develop and we won’t have cap space like this any time soon. We need another bullet in the chamber. I would prefer Sessions, but KP may like Lawson or any of the other attainable rookie PG better. I’ll be disappointed if we don’t add someone who might improve our PG play.

by 52therim on Jun 21, 2009 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions

I like it.

If anything remotely close to what you say happens, it would be incredibly surprising, as you say so yourself.

It gives a good idea, however, of the chess match nature of the draft. I can believe that there are GM’s out there whose draft plan consists of not much more than a prioritized list of players that are likely to exist near their slotted pick. Don’t kid yourself by thinking, “Hey, they’re professionals. They surely are using some complex strategy that I just can’t comprehend!!” I believe some teams plans are as boneheaded as something that I would come up with. The more advanced plans consist of knowing what moves the other guys are going to make and planning your attack based on that knowledge.

It still surprises me that with all the mock drafts, projections and analysis from last year, there wasn’t one that was even close (pick a year, there never is). Yet I remember KP saying they had the projected order correct up through the mid-teens or so. I wonder how many other teams had this sort of accuracy and advantage?

The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers

by lukeyhere on Jun 20, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions

Pretty much spot on

KP is a creature of habit. Makes changes in the off season, acquires players through drafting and trades rather than free agency, not afraid to make a number of moves to get a player. After winning 54 games, he is definitely going to be conservative this year, but I doubt he does nothing. They surely have a couple guys in mind, my money is on Hinrich, Blair, and Collison.

"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Jun 20, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions

"my money is on Hinrich, Blair, and Collison"

I would be, well, “satisfied” if these were the players we ended up with for next year.

To summarize: Wade too quick, Kobe too skilled, LeBron too physical - Batum

by Ltlgto on Jun 20, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions

The metaphorical cake...

would be ready for the candles (rings).

"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Jun 20, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions

An interesting an well-done analysis

It seems to me that planning for the draft might be easier for worse teams than for better ones, since the worse ones should have more positions to fill with quality players. They can probably go with the “best player available” and still fill one of those targeted positions. On the other hand, the Blazers are a good team (yay!) and so have fairly specific and relatively minor needs to try to satisfy in the draft. Yet, even the Blazers might consider just going with the BPA.

As for picking the BPA, if a team has done the scouting, then they don’t have to puzzle over things too much. Of course, if you throw trades into the discussion, then there are a bewildering number of possibilities.

"Just kidding"

by CatMan2 on Jun 20, 2009 10:56 AM PDT reply actions

Good stuff

I agree with your “targets” of Hinrich, Sessions, McDyess and Powe. I don’t think KP can afford two of them, and I’m not optimistic that McDyess will agree to come come anywhere near the NW, unless Portland overpays him

I’d try to move up in the draft and select Blair, who is a “young Powe” (some combination of Outlaw, Sergio and #24 should be able to get that done)

And I’ve had a hunch that KP is interested in Sessions. He’s got penetration and P&R skills that neither Blake or Bayless duplicate. Personally, I’d rather add Hinrich if Devin Harris is not available. But if KP really wants Ramon he should be able to offer him more than the Bucks will be willing to match

Blair at backup PF with an upgrade at PG (Sessions, Hinrich) with Outlaw and Sergio being dealt, I would be satisfied with that result. KP may go in another direction, but I will not be happy with “status quo” at PG/PF following the Houston series meltdown

by two4larue on Jun 20, 2009 1:50 PM PDT reply actions

Hinrich and Sessions would likely take nearly all the available cap space. McDyess and Powe would take less. We might have a little money left over to sign someone like Shannon Brown, but I think you are right. We sign only 1 FA.

by 52therim on Jun 21, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree with all of your post. I doubt we can move up enough to get Blair dangling only Outlaw and Sergio. I think we could move up to get either Lawson or Maynor.

by 52therim on Jun 21, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions

Ariza

I like Ariza, mainly for his defense. He’s not a bad perimeter defender. But, we are already logjamed at the SF spot.

The way I see it: If we were to sign him, then either Outlaw is gone..or is on his way out. KP isn’t trading Batum, and Webster isn’t going anywhere. The next question is, would Ariza be happy with the minutes Outlaw was getting?

by SloppyJoe on Jun 20, 2009 6:20 PM PDT reply actions

I think Ariza should be on our list of FA we have interest in...

and I like him better, for what we need, than any of the other available SF (including Turkoglu), but not better than Hinrich, Sessions, McDyess and Powe. I want to see LA pay to keep Ariza, but I don’t think he fits our needs as well as these others.

If we did sign Ariza, he would start and Martell and Batum would compete for the backup spot. Travis would be on the trading block or get minutes at PF. None of this is ideal which is why it is likely we look somewhere else in the end to sign a FA.

by 52therim on Jun 21, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't know if anybody will look at this after the draft...

but I thought I would come back and see if I was completely wrong about how draft night would go down.

Did I think the Blazers would draft Claver? I did, but not in the 1st round. I certainly didn’t expect it after they moved up 2 spots. Rumor is they might have been targeting Hansbrough with the trade with Dallas. That would support my theory of trying to find the “banger” in the draft. He was gone so they went with BPA. Found their backup PF in Pendergraph with their next pick. I wonder if Taj Gibson had still been on the board if they would have gone with Pendergraph?

Anyway, Sessions and Hinrich still look like possible targets. I am more concerned whether they are attainable at this point compared to when I wrote this post. Detroit has cleared more cap space and may target Ben Gordon. Will Chicago move Hinrich if they don’t re-sign Gordon?
Meanwhile, Milwaukie got rid of Jefferson and his expensive deal. That is an amazing way to turn a high draft pick (Yi) into RJ, into nothing but expiring deals. Thank God for KP! With a little more space under the luxury tax line, they can afford to re-sign Sessions if they choose to. However, they did take a PG with their first pick. They do have Ridnour signed for another year at $6.5M. They need a SF to replace Jefferson. Looks like an ideal situation for a S&T for Sessions for Outlaw.

I still like the Hinrich deal best. Sessions is still a nice backup plan at PG. I said that if Milwaukie went with the PG in the draft, we might focus on filling our PF need in the draft. That is how it worked out. We’re the 2 related? Not necessarily, but a definate maybe!!

by 52therim on Jun 26, 2009 12:20 AM PDT reply actions