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Around SBN: Jerry Sandusky's Wife Tries To Run A Reporter Over

By Position Effectiveness


Prior to flying to Tokyo on Sunday, I downloaded the Blazers' "Production by Position" statistics from last season from 82games, thinking that rummaging through these statistics would be more fun than watching the wretchedly insipid movies to which airlines subject their passengers. The goal was to tease out something useful about the Trailblazers from the available data. This is the result from the 9 hour flight. I hope you find it satisfactory.

The production by position statistics indicate how the team fares with the same player in different positions, and they also give an idea of how well the player does personally in each position. The statistics can be useful to help decide whether we should, e.g, trade Sergio and promote Jerryd, or do something else. They can also explain fan behavior :-) As an example, the production by position statistics for the 2007-2008 season show a wash between Martell and Travis at the small forward, with the 2007-2008 Blazers outscoring their opponents 47% when Martell was on the floor playing small forward, and 45% of the time when Travis was the SF. I conjectured the ensuing debate raged perhaps because we couldn't tell the difference. As a test of this hypothesis, you'll see they show we can't distinguish Sergio and Jerryd this year at PG--and, viola, another debate is raging.

82games provides several types of production by position statistics. I use two.

The first, which 82games call on/off court statistics, measure how much a player helps (or hurts) the team while playing a particular position. These tables have 9 columns for each player: position, percentage of the overall minutes the player played in that position, the 48 minutes scoring rate for the team while he was on the floor at that position, the 48 minutes scoring rate of the opposing team while he manned that position, the total +/- for the player for the season at that position, the number of games in we outscored the opponent when the player was at the position (a bit misleadingly labled "Wins" by 82games), the number of games the opponent outscored the Blazer when the player was at this position (labeled "losses"), and the "Win Percentage", which is the ratio of games we outscored the opponent divided by the total number of games during which the player played the position.

For this discussion, I'm going to modify this format a bit, and consider all of the point guard contributors together, all the scoring guards together, etc, so the first column will be the player's name instead of position. I will also arbitrarily limit considerations to contributions for players who manned a position at least 8 or 10 percent of the time, considering anything less as statistically insignificant.

The second set of statistics document personal performance at each position. They are fairly self explanatory, like field goal attempts (FGA) and turnovers (T/O), and are the sort of thing discussed frequently, so I won't belabor their meaning.

1. Point Guard

Here are the on/off court statistics for our point guards last season:

                                                                                    Blazers      Opponent
                    % PG       Blazers    Opponent           Outscore   Outscore
PG               Minutes  Scoring    Scoring    +/-      Opponent  Blazers          Win %
Blake          55            101.3        92.5         392     42                23                   65
Bayless      11            100.3        96.5           37     13                18                   42
Rodriguez  30               94.4       93.5           21     29                45                   39

(any one know how to insert tabs in this editor?)


Rudy and Brandon also played point guard some, but too infrequently to consider.

At first glance nothing unexpected jumps out: the team ran well with Blake at the point, and otherwise less well.

The first thing that surprised me, however, is that the Win % was essentially the same with Jerryd or Sergio. My impression is Sergio did a lot better (he certainly did it a lot more).

It should be a concern that without Steve, we turn into a 33 win team. Given how well the team played while Blake was injured, we don't really expect that steep a drop-off, but the fact remains that's how the numbers stack up over the entire season. Someone will retort that either Roy or Rudy can play the point, but by now we have ample if not sufficient evidence saying neither can do so effectively on a regular basis; there is a lot more to playing the point than running the offense.

The second surprise is that while Blake is viewed as deliberate and Sergio up-tempo, the evidence demonstrates the reverse; the offense scored 6.9 points less a game with Sergio at the helm than Steve, while only 1 point less when Bayless became the PG. Part of this might be explained by Steve playing on the Black unit while Sergio with the White, but the White unit was supposed to be our up-tempo guys--it didn't work out that way; even with Travis and Rudy, they have trouble figuring out how to score with Sergio running the point.

The third surprise is that, while Jerryd is perceived as the better defender, team defense suffered much more when Bayless replaced Steve (the opponent's scoring increased by 4 points per game) than Sergio (opponent scoring increased by only 1 point). Perhaps this can be explained by theorizing that opponents exploited Bayless' rookiness. This theory makes some sense sense, as the the team could wrest the essentially same win percentage from a point differential of +0.9 points with the more experienced player as with the +3.8 point differential with the less experienced player.

If it really was a wash between Bayless and Rodriguez, why did Coach McMillan play Sergio 3 times as much as Rex? Here are the personal performance statistics for the Blazers who played significant minutes at PG last season:

                         % PG
PG                   Minutes    FGA   eFG%  FTA   iFG%  Reb  Ast    T/O   Blk    PF   Pts   PER
Blake              55              14.2   .536    1.6       12     3.8     7.6     2.3   0.1   2.8  16.6  16.2
  Opponent                       16.3   .453    3.5       32     5.4     7.7     3.7   0.1   2.3  17.8  15.0
Bayless          11              13.8   .455    8.0       48     4.3     5.3     3.8   0.2   6.0  19.3  13.1
  Opponent                       16.1   .490    4.9       32     5.5      8.9    2.8   0.4   4.6  19.8  19.0
Rodriguez      30              13.0   .448    2.9       29     5.1   11.3    4.6   0.1   5.2  13.9  14.1
  Opponent                       15.0   .443    4.1       33     5.0      7.5    3.8   0.3   3.0  17.0  15.1

Three numbers on offense pop out here: Bayless shot inside 48% of the time, created a miniscule 4.3 assists per 48-minutes, and fouled at a rate that could make only Greg proud. On defense, the opposing point guards' eFG% jumped up to .490 and their assists peaked at 8.9. Nate had to pick his spots to play the freshman edition of Jerryd Bayless to avoid the offense becoming too predictable and the defense too pourous; coaching is in part finding a way to make players look their best, and Nate McMillan is a master at this game.

Jerryd's numbers have rookie written all over them. His opponent shot with a higher eFG%, and he gave up more assists and commited more fouls than the other two, all indicative of (at least) inexperience on defense. Casually perusing the 82games statistics for point guards, it seems like his 48% inside field goal attempts is much higher than average--other point guards go inside about a third of the time. The likeliest explanations seem to be he can get away with this even against NBA point guards; part of it has to be his lack of confidence in other shots. Jerryd's eFG% surprised me--while it isn't great, .455 is not all that bad--because this is much better than the average frequently cited on other EB posts. However, people have been citing overall instead of by-position numbers, and these don't tell the whole story; we'll Jerryd's shot selection strategy penalized him when he played SG.

This was a season of genuine growth for Blake. He shot well (.536 3FG%; up from .502 the prior season) and went inside a bit more often (12% iFG% instead of 8% from the previous year). His low turnover rate remained steady (an increase of 0.1 T/O per game from 2007-2008). His PER increased by 2.6 points, while that of his opponent declined by 2.4. Steve is not an elite player, but this year he ecame above average at offense and at least average at defense. Since he is one of two players on the team (the other is Greg) who played only one position, what you see here tells everything we need to know about him.

Sergio had a banner year compared to his sophomore season, getting close to his rookie performance. However, even though Sergio delivered assists at a much higher rate, Steve's mix of scoring and handing out assists was more effective in terms of win %. Sergio still needs to improve at scoring. In the turnover numbers, you can also see Coach McMillan's reluctance to use any PG but Blake. Sergio turned the ball over twice as often as Steve, and Jerryd 65% more often. These are significant differences given the pace at which the Blazers play.

Since there is a cottage industry comparing Jerryd and Sergio, it is worth sneaking a peak at Sergio's rookie season:

                          % PG
PG                    Minutes FGA   eFG%  FTA  iFG%  Reb   Ast   T/O   Blk  PF   Pts   PER
Sergio 06-7    19           13.6   .470     1.4   22        5.2    12.6  4.4   0.1  4.1  13.9  15.7
  Opponent                     14.6   .462     6.6   27        4.9     7.2    3.2  0.3  3.1  18.5  17.0

Rookie Sergio shot better, rebounded better, assisted better, and played more efficiently than rookie Jerryd. Having said that, Sergio has never recovered the...um...shooting touch he had as a rookie. So while Jerryd appears to be the ideal future point guard in terms of athleticism, he is still a long way from demonstrating he is the One. Sergio has to show he has learned anything during his first 3 years in the league; that's too harsh; his defense has improved.

Fans sometimes wonder about Rudy playing the point. He did so 2% of the time and was about as effective (or ineffective) as Jerryd and Sergio. This isn't enough time to form a definitive conclusion, but, given his stellar play at the 2, he looks like an SG from the stats, not a PG. And the statics on Roy playing the point have been uniformly negative after Brandon's rookie season.

Summary: It is not headline making news, but there is no one we can count on behind Steve to play point guard. We need to draft, trade for, or sign a point guard. We do not have this level of exposure at any other position except PF.


2. Shooting Guard

Here is the table summarizing the on/off court effectiveness of our shooting guards. Ready for a surprise?

                                                                                   Blazers     Opponent
                     % SG      Blazers    Opponent          Outscore  Outscore
SG                Minutes Scoring    Scoring    +/-     Opponent  Blazers       Win %
Fernandez  46           98.9          91.8          275   44               33                57
Roy              47         100.0          93.2          266   39               34                53
Bayless         4           85.5        100.5           -60     9               22                29

So by the metric of how often the team won with him as SG, Rudy was a bit more effective last season than Roy!.  He had a better +/- as a shooting guard in fewer minutes. Of course he often played against the other team's scrubs, but he was also one of the closers during the final part of the season. This is amazing, because Brandon is pretty amzing himself. Rudy's SG game is borne out by the minutes at shooting guard, and it looks like Nate used them interchangably, at least in terms of minutes. What a luxury!

But wait. There's something wrong. Everyone knows Brandon Roy is legitimately All-Star, All-NBA, All-everything else, and Fernandez was not even close for rookie of the year. What's going on? The shooting guard statistics won't tell you; we'll see the answer later. There is not a lot of point in talking about Brandon as a SG. We know what he accomplished. Case closed. Let's move on.

While Bayless did not play enough SG for his statistics to be very meaningful, they are interesting. Both the team offense and team defense pretty much collapsed when he came in as the 3. People talk about him being a SG by nature, but this is not supported by the data. We'll try to understand why this happens when we examine his personal SG numbers:


SG                 FGA    eFG%  FTA  iFG%  Reb  Ast  T/O  Blk  PF    Pts   PER
Fernandez   15.5   .552      3.6    16       5.1    3.9  1.9   0.3  2.5   20.1  18.1
  Opponent  14.7   .485      3.9    25       3.8    3.7  2.5   0.1  4.0   17.5  15.0
Roy               21.5   .512      7.7    34       5.8    7.1  2.6   0.3  1.9   28.5  26.4
  Opponent  16.6   .527      3.5    26       5.5    4.2  2.2   0.4  3.8   20.4  17.1
Bayless        14.0  .214       6.5   48       4.0     6.7  4.7  0.0   5.5  10.5   0.7
  Opponent  14.5   .457      3.0    24       5.5     4.7  1.7  0.2   2.5  16.0  14.5

No one can say enough about Roy; he was superior to his opponent nearly across the board: +4.2 FTA, +8% iFG, +0.3 rebounds per 48 minutes, 2.9 assists, 1.9 fewer fouls, 8.1 points per game, and +9.3 in PER. Since he is one of the primary ball handlers, I expect Coach McMillan uses Roy's T/O number as the upper bound of what can be tolerated; if Jerryd or Steve or Sergio can't get within shouting distance, why let them have the ball?

Rudy's personal numbers are not shabby, either; he exceeded Brandon in eFG% (on both offense and defense, turnovers, and personal fouls. This 48 minute point production at 20.1 points is sterling. By comparison, here Brandon's corresponding SG numbers from his rookie season:

SG                FGA    eFG%  FTA    iFG%  Reb  Ast  T/O  Blk  PF   Pts   PER
Roy 06-07   17.2   .500      12.8   26       6.2    5.1  2.8   0.2  3.2  21.0  18.0
  Opponent  16.2   .557        5.4   33       4.9    4.2  2.0   0.2  3.5  21.7  19.0

So rookie Rudy outdid rookie Brandon in eFG% (by +0.052 on offense, by +0.072 on defense), turnovers (by +0.9 on offense), blocks, personal fouls (by 0.7 on offense, 0.5 on defense), scoring differential (by +3.3 points per 48), and PER (by +0.1 on offense and +4.0 on defense). The 06-07 model of Roy played for a more disfunctional team, and while Rudy isn't exactly your usual rookie, I am not acusing Rudy of having a better rookie season, but only pointing out this still bodes well for the future.

Bayless' was the team's 3rd SG by minutes, and his SG numbers aren't encouraging. The tactic of attacking the rim appears to no longer work against larger SGs; 48% of his shots are still inside, but his eFG% plummets to a miserable .214; his FTAs are way down as well. The opponent SG can shoot over him, so their eFG% goes way up and iFG% goes way down; this is corroborated by Jerryd's improved PF numbers as an SG. What is interesting is Jerryd's assists are up, too. It appears being swarmed by stronger, bigger opponents caused Jerryd to find teammates to bail him out, to the degree where he finally begins to look like a PG! This is corroborated (and offset) by a spiraling turnover rate at SG.

Travis and Nick also played SG, but the minutes logged were too small to consider.

Summary: Unlike point guard, the statistics show the Blazers have SG covered, with two very strong players. It would be useful to have a solid backup who can hold his own in the event of injury or the need to use Roy or Rudy in other ways, but we are already better off than nearly any other team in the league.

3. Small Forward

For at least the past two seasons we have fretted about bleeding from the SF position. But this year 82games By Position Ranking says we had the 7th most effective corps of small forwards in the League. What? 7th best? In the whole league? Are you kidding? What happened?

Of course, we got Nicholas. Ah yes; that has to be it. We got Nick, right? Well, that's part of the answer. But the truth is:

                                                                                Blazers      Opponent
                 % SF       Blazers    Opponent          Outscore    Outscore
SF            Minutes  Scoring    Scoring    +/-      Opponent  Blazers       Win %
Roy           25           104.0        92.0         253    48               24                67
Batum      35           100.7        92.4         244    43               35                55
Outlaw     27              93.7        93.9          -10    36               42                46

For the second year in a row, Roy was a stand-out at SF. Say whatever you like. If Roy plays SF, we win the scoring battle 2/3rds of the time. Unfortunately, his 25% SF minutes shows this only works when the matchups are right, but the evidence is becoming overwhelming that Roy can play SF with a vengence.

Nick was the surpise of the season, and the table bears this out. Neiher scoring or defense falls off substantially when we transition the SF from Roy to Batum; the point differential falls only 3.7 points, from 12.0 to 8.3. It is interesting that this amount of point differential accounts for the 12% winning percentage differential when the rookie plays.

I am so used to the mantra that Travis is a mediocre SF that I was surprised by how effective he was this year. The offense falls off a cliff when Travis plays SF, but I was impressed that the defense didn't--are we talking about the same Travis fans love to abuse? This made me review his SF numbers from the 2007-2008 season: the offense improved from 85.7 ppg when Travis played the SF to 93.7 this past season. This is a massive jump, even though the team offense is still defective. Travis is on his way to becoming a respectable backup option at SF.

Here are the individual SF statistics:

SF                 FGA     eFG%  FTA  iFG%  Reb  Ast  T/O  Blk  PF   Pts   PER
Roy               22.2    .511      9.4   33        6.6   5.7   2.3  0.5  2.4  30.2  27.1
  Opponent  13.9    .395      4.3   35        5.8   3.1   1.9  0.4  4.1  14.0   8.8
Batum          11.9    .541      1.8   34        7.2   2.5   1.7  1.3  4.5  14.3  14.8
  Opponent  15.1    .514      3.9   32        5.8   3.1   2.4  0.4  3.0  19.3  16.4
Outlaw          17.0   .499      3.9   16        6.1   1.8   2.1  0.8  3.0  19.6  14.0
  Opponent  15.7    .514      4.6   27        6.5   3.1   1.9  0.7  3.5  20.0  17.1

You can see Roy dominating at SF in a way he doesn't at SG: FGA (+8.3 per 48 minutes over the opponent SF), eFG% (+.116 over the oponent SF), FTAs (+5.1), Asts (+2.6), PFs (+1.7), Pts (+16.0 per 48 minutes), and PER (+18.3). Playing him as SF seems to throw the opponents' defense into chaos and make their offense stagnant. Say whatever you want. Repeat the mantra: Roy is not a small forward. Let the Blazers assert it. Let Brandon say it himself. But people, these numbers are getting into Wade territory, CP3 territory. Brandon Roy has become an All-Stud small forward, and this is the best kept secret in the NBA today.

So what about Nick? Maybe the eFG% of his opponent is a bit high, but that is probably because he guarded the opponent's best player instead of his own man. The FTA number, the opponent's assists, Nick's turnovers, the personal foul differential--all of these suggest a rookie. But rebounding? Already better than his opponent.

And lastly Mr. Outlaw. Ok; his numbers aren't sterling, but they say we didn't lose very much when he stepped onto the court as our small forward--the oppoment SF shot a little better, shot a few more free throws, got slightly more rebounds, turned the ball over slightly less, and blocked a few more show--but only a little better than Travis. You can see Travis' aversion to contact in the iFG%, where his opponent abuses him with 27% of his shots inside to Travis' 17. But this is a team low for opponents SFs (by a significant margin), and suggests that maybe Travis is learning how to defend drives to the rim. His stats give the signature of a great role player. Travis has become a useful citizen in Blazerland.

One more observation: I believe the jury has rendered a unanimous verdict: when both Brandon and Rudy are on the floor together, make Roy the SF and Rudy the SG. Again, this only works when the matchups allow for it, but it maximizes the teams' chance of success more often than not.

Summary: The SF position shows a surprising route to the Blazers' success. Have a great player at the starting position, a second guy off the bench who can tread water, followed by a world beater to finish them off for dead.

4. Power Forward

Truth in Advertising Alert: LaMarcus became my favorite Blazer this season, so you can filter any bias in the analysis as needed.

                                                                                 Blazers      Opponent
                  % PF       Blazers    Opponent           Outscore   Outscore
PF             Minutes  Scoring    Scoring    +/-      Opponent  Blazers         Win %
Outlaw     19            107.4        96.1          181    41               22                 65
Aldridge   68             98.3         91.4          387    45               33                 58     
Frye             8            88.0          91.1           -21    16               27                 37

So Travis made a bigger positive impact as a PF than my man? We outscored the opposition 65% of the time while Travis is on the court as a PF? Sweet. Maybe we (the fans) have dismissed the Travis option too soon. He played the PF only 19% of the time, again suggesting Travis at PF is an option we can effectively exploit only when the matchups are right, but a +11.3 scoring differential and outscoring the opponent 65% of the time can't be sneezed at.

LaMarcus played a team high 68% of the PF miutes, the largest percentage for any player at any position. This is because only other alternative available besides Travis seemed to be Channing. Frye didn't distinguish himself particularly as a PF, with our team outscoring its opponents only 37% of the time while he was our PF--that translates to 30 wins a season. As in Steve's case, these numbers say LaMarcus really needs help.

Speaking of LMA, what did he do for the team when he was on the floor as our PF? We scored nearly 7 points a game more when Aldridge manned the PF. Blake was the only Blazer with a bigger +/- throughout the season. LaMarcus accumulated his +/- in the West, which is insanely deep at the 4. 82games By Position ranking says we had the 2nd most effective PF corps in the league last season. The PF minutes numbers say this success can be attributed almost exclusively to LaMarcus. "All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others."

Here are the individual PF numbers:

PF                 FGA    eFG%  FTA  iFG%  Reb  Ast  T/O  Blk  PF   Pts   PER
Outlaw         20.2   .518      7.5   22        8.8    1.7  1.8  1.9  3.7  26.9  23.0
  Opponent  17.0   .546      5.2   38        9.2    2.7  1.9  1.2  6.7  22.7  19.9
Aldridge       20.3   .485      5.1   33        9.5    2.7  1.9  1.3  3.1  23.7  21.6
  Opponent  15.8   .503      3.9   36        8.6    2.2  2.2  0.8  5.2  18.9  15.5
Frye              19.8   .438      2.8   16        7.7    2.2  2.0  0.6  5.4  18.9  11.2
  Opponent  16.0   .477      4.7   36        8.9    3.2  1.9  0.1  4.9  19.2  15.8

The opposition PFs could score on Travis and LaMarcus relatively easily (eFG% of .546 and .503, respectively), but they had their own trouble on defense, fouling our quicker guys--speed kills as they say. Travis' PF PER of 23.0 is astonishing. LaMarcus' PF PER of 21.6 is not bad, either, considering he did so much of the heavy lifting night in and night out.

Given all the abuse he receives from a few of the fans for not being Karl Malone, I find it interesting that LMA's iFG% is only slightly below the average for an average PF, and that he outrebounds his opponent by +0.9 rebounds per 48 minutes, a signifcant margin. The cant about him being a spineless rebounding wuss is not borne out by the evidence. If you look at the numbers for our other bigs, none rebound as well in the PF position as when they play center (even Joel averaged only 15.9 rpg as a PF). It appears lack of rebounding at the PF is something structural in the way the Blazer offense works. Somehow plugging in Paul Millsap or Brandon Bass as LaMarcus' backup is unlikely to change this by itself.

The numbers demonstrate Frye just doesn't cut it for us as a backup PF in the Blazers' system. This is hard to say, because I really like Channing, and thought he had turned the corner last summer. Wrong again.

Summary: While Travis can excel in the right situation, there is no one else behind LMA at PF; LaMarcus does as amazing a job pulling the sleigh as anyone on the team. We need to show our apprciation by getting him some help.


5. Center

Last are the centers. Here are their on/off court numbers:

                                                                                Blazers      Opponent
                   % PF       Blazers    Opponent         Outscore   Outscore
C                Minutes  Scoring    Scoring    +/-    Opponent  Blazers        Win %
Aldridge    7              120.1       103.8        96     31               14                 69
Oden         33            100.4         94.1        170   36               24                60
Pryzbilla    49              96.2         89.0        294   37               40                48
Frye           10              91.6        103.1      -100   15               32                32     

Wait a minute. There's that LaMarcus guy again, with the kind of numbers fans love. We outscore the opposition 69% of the time he plays center? We average 120.1 points per 48 when this happens? Sign me up. Maybe smallball isn't too bad.

That Oden guy may be pretty good, too. You can see how much he changes the game just by being on the court; even though the team scoring differential is "only" +6.3 ppg with Greg as our center, we outscore the opponent 12% more often than with Joel, who owns a higher differential of +7.2 ppg. Given Joel's guady +/-, it surprised me was that we only broke even (at 48%) when Joel played center. Frye did not hold his own as a backup center, and the team was man-handled whenever we were forced into this option.

The personal statistics are as follows:

C                   FGA     eFG%  FTA  iFG%  Reb   Ast  T/O  Blk  PF   Pts   PER
Aldridge       16.1    .500      7.6   36       11.6   1.4  1.9  1.0  5.8   21.8  20.2
  Opponent  12.6    .595      4.9   63       12.9   2.2  1.4  1.9  6.3   18.7  22.8
Oden            12.8    .564      8.3   90       15.5   1.1  3.2  2.6  8.7   19.7  20.3
  Opponent  12.3    .552      5.1   59         9.2   1.8  2.2  2.8  6.8   17.5  17.5
Pryzbilla         6.6    .623      4.1   92       17.6   0.6  1.9  2.4  5.3   11.0  17.5
  Opponent  14.4    .515      4.5   51       10.9   1.8  2.4  1.4  4.4   18.3  17.5
Frye               15.1   .450      2.0   20       10.0   1.0  1.7  1.3  8.0   15.4  11.6
  Opponent  12.6    .541      7.9   60       11.9   2.7  2.3  2.5  4.6   19.4  22.9

If nothing else, all of our centers are really expert at fouling. And this is not just Greg.

The data says the Blazers' centers shoot less than any other position: PGs about 13 times a game; SG about 18 times a game; SF and PF roughly 20 times a game each; C 12. This is bizarre, but it is probably a relic of the days when Joel was all we had. Perhaps this is related to having good options scoring at SG, SF and PF, but some of it has to be our weak set of PGs; they can't get the ball into the post in a way that is always useful. The entire team seems to have problems executing the pick-and-roll at both ends of the court, and this shows up as dismal FGA numbers for the centers. The exception is LaMarcus, who is a shot magnet.

The numbers also show that LaMarcus struggles a bit to hold his own as a center, as he is out rebounded and shoots a much lower percentage of inside shots than the opposing center. His opponent grabs more rebounds--but his own rebounds are way up from when he plays PF. However, the FTA--man, those are Bayless like FTA numbers--and PF differential is squarely in his favor, suggesting he compensates for his relative lack of bulk with speed.

News Flash: looking at the iFG% and Reb numbers, Joel and Greg positively man-handled their opponents inside. Greg's PER of 20.3 is unreal for a rookie. No wonder he was such a disappointment.

Summary: Overall, the corps of centers didn't do nearly as well as the SG/SF/PF position, as we were ranked a "disappointing" 16th in the league. The only things holding us back are LaMarcus' defense against bigger centers, Joel's offense, and Greg's inexperience. We believe at least the last one of these will change for the better next season. But you can see the SF recipe of three really good players at one position leading to a higher ranking in the future. The difference from the SF case is here is all three horses will eventually be running wild.

 

 

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First thought - WOW!

Gotta read it again before I comment….

by blazergrl on Jun 2, 2009 2:23 PM PDT reply actions  

Nice Work

I feel that some of the numbers (especially for Bayless) were affected by garbage time. Is there any way to see how Bayless played during the period that Blake was injured instead of for the entire season?

by Gregs of Society on Jun 2, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions  

Interesting question

I don’t know who keeps this, but it might be possible to get some idea by looking at the correlation between his numbers and other players we know are on the court only at garbage time. This would probably require doing an analysis of some other team, since most of our strictly garbage time players were bigs. I love Shavlick’s PER at SF (26.0 v. 27.2 for his opponent), or Ruffin’s at PF (0.0 v. 24.2). The usual trend is that the stats of our garbage time players look much worse than our other players.

by jaywalker on Jun 2, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

on tables,
(any one know how to insert tabs in this editor?)

maybe just do it in excel and take a screenshot, cut, upload, and link?

"We really don't reference the rulebook." ~Joe Borgia, NBA VP of referee operations, to Henry Abbot regarding the calling (or lack thereof) of traveling.

by postup on Jun 2, 2009 2:40 PM PDT reply actions  

rec

helluva post, front page material.

Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash

by HurraKane212 on Jun 2, 2009 2:57 PM PDT reply actions  

Nice job analyzing the stats

but in so far as the PG, there are not a lot of options other than to develop Bayless.

“Trade for Hinrich, Kidd or Miller”

OK that send Blake to the backup and buries Bayless and we are stuck with 2 30YO PGs heading into the future and an underdeveloped Bayless. If you want to replace Blake with one of those guys fine as in 2 years they will fall off and Bayless should be ready by then, although the question remains on how much upgrade to cost ratio there is in bringing in one of those players who will eventually be a backup in a few years as they get older.

“Get Sessions or Conley!!”

OK if everyone thinks that Sessions is so good then why are the Bucks looking at drafting Flynn and letting him go? I understand about salary concerns but if you have a top flight PG who can only make the MLE you take that deal and cut other places, and not daft a rookie PG.

As for Conley sure he is nice but Hollins apparently loves him and is not trading him. So we might as well go for Parker or Paul. Conleys rookie year was not that much better than Bayless’ and until Hollins came in he was dead in the water. Goes to show what a little PT and the confidence of your coach will bring which Bayless will have this year.

“Lets draft a PG!!”

Yeah another young prospect that we have to develop and from “the weakest draft ever” where we would have to use assets to move into the lottery to grab a good one, or we can give those minutes to the 11th pick in what is looking to be one of the best drafts in recent history.

As for the SF position I have been saying it all along that a Blake/Bayless, Rudy, Roy backcourt combo is one of the best ones we can put out there. There is not way we can give Rudy less than the 25mpg he got last year PERIOD and the same goes with Nic and his 18mpg.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Jun 2, 2009 3:08 PM PDT reply actions  

PG - My favorite two options.

If KP is serious about Bayless being a starting PG in the NBA, then he should decline the team option on Blake & sign Jason Kidd as a mentor.

If KP still likes Bayless but thinks he is more of a scoring option off the bench, then he will go after Conley.

Offseason:
(T)Mike Conley Jr
(T)Reggie Evans
(D)Taj Gibson
(D)Kevin Seraphin
(D)Jerel McNeal/Lester Hudson

by TheGreatDane17 on Jun 2, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

awesome!

I was very skeptical at Brandon playing small forward, but those numbers are amazing. Great work.

"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Jun 2, 2009 3:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Great Scott...

And on your next flight could you work on that world peace problem?

Epic work, and I don’t say that lightly.

So he said in himself: "O vilest of those wherefor was made the byword: 'The pilgrimage is not perfected save by copulation with the camel!"' Richard Burton, Arabian Nights

by -ken on Jun 2, 2009 3:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Roy is just as much a SF as he is a SG

Numbers obviously bare out that he’s perfectly capable (understatement) of playing small forward, but there are still plenty of people that post here that will tell you Roy is a shooting guard and that’s it. The problem I have is that people use this logic as a reason that Rudy someday has to be traded. Hello? They play GREAT together. Great… legitimately great.

In our 5 top used lineups that featured Rudy at the 2 and Roy at the 3, we were +24 per 48 minutes. It’s an insanely effective combo, as their games mesh so well, especially if combined with a competent point guard. It may not be ideal defensively, but the offense it creates makes up for that plus a ton. They scored on average 1.25 points per possession in those lineups while giving up less than 1.00 points per possession defensively.

The saying goes Rudy is expendable because we have Roy. Howbout this one? Rudy isn’t expendable because we have Roy. No other player on this entire team, Aldridge included, has been as valuable while on the court with Roy as Rudy has. While it may not be ideal to start them together, the fact is, there is easily enough time during the course of a 48 minute game that they can play 15-18 minutes together, which would in the end, allow Rudy to get his 30 minutes, making him our Manu Ginobli. We also have to remember it was just Rudy’s first year in the league while producing these kinds of numbers.

I think most fans that have pay attention to these numbers acknowledge we’d be just fine down the road with our wing players, which is why the focus should be elsewhere. Roy, Rudy and Batum can all player perfectly well for us on Championship teams of the future. They can lock down both the 2 and 3 spots for the duration of their careers.

So basically it comes down to filling in 48 minutes at point guard and 10-15 minutes at power forward. And we have these pieces to do it…

Steve Blake
Travis Outlaw
Jerryd Bayless
Martell Webster
Sergio Rodriguez
Joel Freeland
8.5 Million in cap space
#24, #32, #38, #55, #56
Future 1st Rounders

Can we get 2 legit Championship level point guards (1 starter, 1 backup) and 1 Championship level power forward (backup) from this mix? I think the answer to that is yes.

by as11osu on Jun 2, 2009 4:29 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

I was one of the ones thinking Rudy has to be traded, but now...

this looks unncessary. I agree with you that if we carve up the minutes the way you suggest, we might have a good shot at making the two of them work together. Thanks.

by jaywalker on Jun 2, 2009 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I realize there was more to your post than just this...

Outlaw I love for when we play small ball, but a banger is in my opinion necessary. I just think Outlaw is a better asset in a trade to get our legit point guard than he would be playing strictly backup to LMA for 12 minutes a game. I think if Outlaw is traded we’ll need another small ball power forward, as our team has the capability to run that way because of the diversity and excellence of our 3 big men. Maybe if you go out and get a DeJuan Blair (Brandon Bass) type, make sure you get a guy like Austin Daye or Charlie V, or someone like that. You don’t have to watch the Magic long to realize what having 4 good 3 point shooters out on the court can do for a team.

by as11osu on Jun 2, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you

That was my whole point in my post-Is BRoy a SG or a SF. This team has some assets that though I like the people the window can be now with just a few tweeks Travis is an asset we need to maximize along with draft picks &maybe another role player we can get a difference maker

by We-B-Dunkin on Jun 2, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I recommend this.

Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .

by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 2, 2009 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

first off, excellent post

detailed data and unbiased (almost) analysis. The chart issue I recc. converting the chart into a pic and inserting them that way.. I know no other way to do so.

In regards to the data on our point guards:

According to this data set, if Bayless ups his assists and works a little on defense.. hes on par with Blake. ANd he doesnt have to far to go in that regard. That either is terrible for Blake or really awesome for Bayless. I am leaning toward the former. Bayless’ effectiveness on offense would have evened out if he had significantly more playing time, and these stats prove that. I think if someone smarter than me makes this into a graph .. average it all out and the trend is more effective play defensively and offensively from Bayless.. as opposed to Sergio who was played 3 times as more by Nate.

You state Nate used Bayless effecitvely , when in reality I believe he did not. Playing Sergio more than Bayless is proven by these stats to have been a mistake. Although… there is a part of me that honestly believes that stats had NOTHING to do with the decision to play Sergio 2nd string. His chemistry with Rudy is a serious and I think important intangible. In my head though, that’s about all Sergio is worth and how can you quantify that? Ultimately it cannot be and we need to move him while he has any trade value .. ( i know it’s like nonexistent)

Well Done Though.

Sophia

Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare

Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 2, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions  

This is a very perceptive comment

The assertion about Nate using Bayless effectively was at most a wild guess based on the uncanny way he shuffled other players to exploit their strengths. You may be right. And I hope you are about Bayless developing

by jaywalker on Jun 2, 2009 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow.

You put a lot of work into this post. Great job. There were some very interesting stats in here. It makes me think that maybe both Roy and Rudy should be starters. Though the problem with that might be that there wouldn’t be enough firepower left on the bench.

by tcwoods on Jun 2, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions  

Positions

How does 82 games determine who is playing which position? Like if Blake, Rudy, and Roy are in the game, how do they know which one is the SF?

by pualo on Jun 2, 2009 6:28 PM PDT reply actions  

The site sorts players by who it thinks is more PG-like or most C-like and whatnot.

Most of this is a basic sorting by height. In the case of Blake, Rudy, and Roy, Roy is always the SF, Rudy is always the SG, and Blake is always the PG. This means that it’s just an estimation of who’s playing what position at any one time. Cross-matchups make the data a little less accurate (like when Batum guards the PG).

by poster on Jun 2, 2009 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting

I was under the impression that the players told the score keeper when the enter the game. I’ve seen annotated traces of who was at what position. But I don’t know. Still, however they come about, if they are going to post statistics, we can have fun analyzing them.

by jaywalker on Jun 2, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps it's time to consider starting Rudy and Roy at our wing positions instead of at the guards.

And your numbers show that Blake has been pretty good for us. Would I like better? Sure. Will I be disappointed if we go into next season with Blake as our starting PG? Nah. We’ve seen that lineup at the end of games quite a bit of this last season, and it worked pretty well. Defense? Not so great, but as your numbers bear out, our offense made up for our defense.

However, the only time we ever used this as a starting lineup is Game 6. That didn’t go so well for us. Hmm.

Great post! It was fun to see those numbers presented like that.

וָאֹמַר אוֹי-לִי כִי-נִדְמֵיתִי, כִּי אִישׁ טְמֵא-שְׂפָתַיִם אָנֹכִי, וּבְתוֹךְ עַם-טְמֵא שְׂפָתַיִם, אָנֹכִי יוֹשֵׁב: כִּי, אֶת-הַמֶּלֶךְ יְהוָה צְבָאוֹת--רָאוּ עֵינָי.

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by T Darkstar on Jun 2, 2009 6:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Thanks for a great post

This is moneyball without the money. My interest level peaked when you suggested a big guy like Millsap or Bass may not really help as much as we think. That point alone is worth a thread as many of us have yelled ourselves hoarse for a big musclebound backup to keep things clean under the basket. What is the structural problem to which you allude?

by oregonslee on Jun 2, 2009 6:49 PM PDT reply actions  

I don't know. It's just the pattern in the data

If nearly everyone’s rebounding numbers decline when they play the PF in our offense, this says something systematic is happening in how the Blazers play the game. This might be due to something else entirely. Joel only played PF in 3 games, so the evidence is not overwhelming.

by jaywalker on Jun 2, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Great post....

except you made me burn my grilled cheese sandwich. By the time I got done reading, it was smoking like a Red Auerbach cigar.

by prezofdeath on Jun 2, 2009 6:51 PM PDT reply actions  

My only qualm with 82games.com is one involving semantics.

Whenever Brandon Roy is on the court and the team runs a set play, he’s the ballside wing. It doesn’t matter who’s playing beside Roy as the weakside cornerman (i.e., small forward) or at off guard (i.e., the point), for his position within Nate McMillan’s high/low zone offense is technically always that of shooting guard.

Now, with regards to defense, it’s true that Roy frequently guards the strongest wing player on the opposition whenever he teams with Rudy Fernandez as a 2/3 combo. If, for example, it’s during the last six minutes of a game versus the Denver Nuggets and Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, Fernandez, and Roy are all on the court at the wing positions, then Fernandez would check Smith and Roy would check Anthony.

by AK1984 on Jun 2, 2009 8:24 PM PDT reply actions  

And that really in itself accounts for the technicality

You are what you’re able to defend. When Roy and Rudy are on the court Rudy’s the 2, Roy’s the 3. Peoples positions are almost always determined on what they can defend and not what they can do offensively. Is Okur a SF? Is Andre Miller a PF?

The numbers these guys produce are accounted for all the same whether they’re at the 2 or the 3, and the number they give up to the opposition is based on who they guard. Roy guards the 3 when Rudy is on the court, so all the stats that go along with it are accurate.

by as11osu on Jun 2, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mehmet Okur is a high-post power forward on offense, while Andre Miller is a dribble-drive point ...

guard; however, your point remains the same. Regardless, I nevertheless view players from what one could consider to be an offensive-minded perspective.

by AK1984 on Jun 2, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

from a defensive minded guy, that surprises me

You can’t be on the court if you can’t properly defend the player you’re matched up against.

by as11osu on Jun 2, 2009 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, I still fully adhere to the "defense wins championships" adage and believe that many ...

high-volume scorers who are one-way players — such as Danny Granger, Caron Butler, et al. — are vastly overrated by casual fans and the media. Yet, whenever it comes to determining a guy’s position on the court, I go by where they play on offense.

I, however, agree that someone “can’t be on the court if [they] can’t properly defende the player [they’re] matched up against.” For that very reason, I dislike a backcourt of Brandon Roy at the 2 and Rudy Fernandez at the 1; that’s because neither one of them can defend point guards.

Yet, in addition, I also believe that you can’t play two true pivotmen together at the same time on the frontline. As a result, I was always against the idea of pairing Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden — even though I’m a huge fan of both guys — since they’d clog the lane when playing nexxt to each other.

Now, I’m sure that last paragraph will lead to you bringing up Jeff Foster. With Foster, though, I feel he could play effectively in front of a low-post scoring 7-footer (e.g., Przybilla) due to his so-so face-up game. Of course, trading for Foster isn’t in the cards; thus, it’s a moot point.

by AK1984 on Jun 2, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

First off: great job and rec'd.

Second off. The win percentage numbers are garbage. Any stat that shows Travis with a higher win percentage at the 4 is not Reality Based.

The reason Rex’s “win percentage” at PG is so low is because some of those games (many of those games) featured him with garbage time minutes at the end of losses.

It’s pretty clear to me, having watched essentially every Rex appearance this season, that he is a 1, not a 2. Shooting guards must be able to shoot to be effective, and Rex could not and was not when he was playing the 2 (usually alongside Sergio).

Rex’s fouls were legion and they were all, ummmmm, chicken doo-doo hand-checking fouls on the perimeter. Totally rookie-osis there.

Sergio improved greatly late year vs. early year.

To a great extent, the numbers here overmathmatize things. What we saw with out eyes was real. The “win percentage” stats for Travis at the 4 and Rex at the 1 were not.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jun 2, 2009 9:53 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Really great post!

Gives me a lot of insight into what the real problems are on this team. I also agree with some other people that Bayless’s stats may be changed because garbage time.

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by Claire on Jun 2, 2009 10:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Blake's vs Sergio's pace

Perhaps the scoring differential can partly be explained that Blake closes out games, and Sergio doesn’t. In the end of the game…Roy is either getting sent to the line or we would be in a position to collect intentional fouls…often scoring a lot of points in a little amount of time. It may not have a huge effect, but Blake got like 99% of the closing minutes where as Sergio only closed out 2 games from my memory.

I got 6 years of playoff blue balls going on, and I'm ready to release. GO BLAZERS. ~Mortimer

by Philthyanimal on Jun 2, 2009 10:17 PM PDT reply actions  

Tough to draw meaningful conclusions from misleading stats.

I can tell you put a ton of work into this, but stats can be very misleading for a variety of reasons. In the case of Bayless, using “season” stats leads to more confusion than clarity. Bayless essentially played 3 different “mini-seasons”: 1) before Blake’s injury; 2) during Blake’s injury; 3) after Blake’s return.

In mini-season 1) he basically got garbage minutes in blowouts and his stats sucked. When Blake went out his season PER was under 5.

In mini-season 2), he got meaningful minutes at PG and his stats were quite impressive for a rookie: 48 FG % and 4.0 asst/game on 20 minutes of PT. His PER for this stretch must have been above 15, because his season PER was about 12 when Blake returned.

In mini season 3), he was given a few brief, inconsistent stints as Nate tried to figure out who was going to get the back-up minutes. Both Bayless and Sergio sucked during this stretch, likely because they were trying too hard in short stints. After Nate gave Sergio the nod, Bayless was back to garbage minutes in blowouts and occasional stints in three guard lineups where he was not really the PG, or stints where he played SG while Sergio played PG.

Lumping these three mini-seasons together actually muddies the water. Bayless’ improvement during Blake’s injury gets lost. Bayless’ spring is wound exceptionally tight. Expecting him to perform efficiently when he was trying too hard and thinking too much in very limited minutes doesn’t make much sense to me. Trying to draw conclusions from lousy stats makes even less sense.

by upper left corner on Jun 2, 2009 11:33 PM PDT reply actions  

When you have LMA and Oden at the 4 and 5

with Pryz backing them up, I think you’re pretty comfortable while playing Brandon at the 3, you dont have to worry about rebounding.
I hope to see Rudy and Roy starting together in the near future, these stats gave me a lot of hope

by jbm01 on Jun 3, 2009 12:28 AM PDT reply actions  

Who is that small ball unit?

Lma, Trout, Roy, Rudy, and Blake? I’m not suprised those guys could score 120pts a game. But I still want me some Oden and Joel.

Very nice work.

by NWfan on Jun 3, 2009 5:52 PM PDT reply actions  

This further proves

That the height of players does not have to ascend from the 1 to the 5. I always really like Rudy and Roy out on the court together, and I think this proves that Brandon’s versatility can take the pressure off Fernandez to play off his natural position of SG. Might this have the added effect of allowing Rudy to sneak into the starting lineup? I think he not only deserves it but would do well and be more satisfied long-term in Portland. I wish we had stats for Webster to compare, because I think in this situation he could pick up the backup SG minutes with Nic holding down solid mins at the bench 3 (obviously all with some overlaps). Lots of people talk about Roy as a PG, but he has a stealthy versatility to go along with his “deceptive quickness.” Does this prove the effectiveness of the lineup tweakage I suggested?

Good post. Have fun in Tokyo.

by Samsara on Jun 3, 2009 6:06 PM PDT reply actions  

A very interesting read

I like your approach and presentation. I question some of your analysis for the following reasons:

1. Using differentials with opponents to compare our own players is apples and oranges. Travis did not guard Dirk or Pau or KG. He played 4 against reserves and his differential is skewed by the opponent. Bayless never had CP3 to guard either. If you could rate the opponent’s PER for each lineup change at the time of that game you could begin to adjust but I have not seen this done?

2. Basketball to me is a fluid game of 5 on 5 and the matchups and switches throughout the possession make position comparisons extra difficult. These numbers do lead to some different perspectives and are valid for that purpose – to give pause to conventional thinking. The end result of the players on the floor at any given moment are what makes coaching different. The team is said to have very sophisticated statistical analysis system to provide input but coach must process at each moment hundreds? of factors to choose the players/offense/ defense for that moment. We can try to suss out the inevitable changes in off-season and it is fun but not determinative.

That said I loved the read and hope to see far more in the future.

"What's so interesting is that this team took on a dynamic that was very special. I don't think we as a group, in terms of management, coaches and players, realize what we did as a young team. We broke all the metrics. We broke all the molds. Our challenge is can we continue to do that. As young of a team with 54 wins, no issues off the court, phenomenal chemistry." - Kevin Pritchard

by lee3022 on Jun 3, 2009 11:11 PM PDT reply actions  

This is really great feedback

There are two or three others above in the same vein, and all of them ring true to me. You explanation of the limitations this approach as much more than a hueristic is the clearest to me. Thanks.

by jaywalker on Jun 4, 2009 4:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

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