Lawson grades out as the best prospect, though Griffin is very close. Hollinger’s model is pretty sharp, too, particularly for multi-year guys (and doesn’t always reward college success – it projected Reddick as a bust). Pretty good bet that Lawson will be a good pro point guard. He may be one of the most underrated prospects in years.

The pleasant surprise: Ty Lawson
Two players are neck and neck for the top spot in this year’s Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.

Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he’s short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.

The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn’t mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don’t think Lawson’s statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we’ve heard questions about Lawson’s work ethic and injuries.

But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you’re wondering about Ricky Rubio, I’ll have more on him next week.)

Danny Green graded out as a top ten prospect, as well. Blazers could probably get him in the second round.

Here’s the top twelve prospects:

1. Ty Lawson North Carolina 16.34
2. Blake Griffin Oklahoma 16.21
3. Tyreke Evans Memphis 15.02
4. Austin Daye Gonzaga 14.24
5. Stephen Curry Davidson 14.18
6. Nick Calathes Florida 13.66
7. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh 13.56
8. Danny Green North Carolina 13.28
9. Jonny Flynn Syracuse 12.99
10. James Harden Arizona State 12.97
11. Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut 12.90
12. Earl Clark Louisville 12.88

Thus my lines
Give Ty a Try!
Lawson is Awesome!
but really he just looked so good in the tourney, but I have to admit I did not realize at the time that he was actually fairly small. He must look bigger next to college players than he would next to NBA players. I thought he looked pretty tough though, and I would love to get a playmaker like that, though some have mentioned that having “the most potent offense in college basketball” around him made him seem like a better point than he is. I don’t really know, but I wouldn’t mind giving him a chance. I am one that is concerned about Bayless’ ability to run the team. I hope he can, and I assume he will be give a large chance, I really hope he develops a good game with greg.

I liked what I had read about Tyreke Evans and saw that he had been highly rated but had slipped in the mocks. Rated at #3 in the draft on this analysis? That’s darn high for someone not listed in the lottery mix.

I’d only want him as a PG, but some mocks project him as SG. I hope the Blazers are watching to see if he slips far enough down to be had. Anyone that got to watch him play much have a feel for the guy?

oops, I see he has moved back up to consensus #6

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/06/10/consensus/index.html

What would it take?