Man, I’m not cut out for this. Too Hard!
Good luck, y’all.

1. Rudy Fernandez isn’t an undersized shooting guard, which is the type of player who’d work best next to Jason Kidd — who, despite being an unrestricted free-agent, will most likely to re-sign with Dallas — in the Mavericks’ backcourt. Thankfully for the Mavericks, though, Jason Terry and Jose Barea are already there to provide that

2. Martell Webster’s injury problems and long-term contractual obligations almost make him have negative trade value. Now, although I think some teams would willingly absorb his contract, the Mavericks aren’t one of those ballclubs. Heck, Donnie Nelson is better off using the team’s first-round pick on a swingman (e.g., Chase Budinger) — or hoping that the once ballyhooed Antoine Wright lives up to his promise — than trading for Webster.

3. That’s a terrible return for Josh Howard, pure and simple. No matter his off-court issues — such as him supposedly disrespecting The Star-Spangled Banner, which was overblown enormously — Nelson should be able to bag a better return for his services than this collection of role players.

4, Steve Blake, who’s got a non-guaranteed salary for next season if he’s waived before 6/30/2009, is of flat-out no value to the Mavericks concerning financial relief. Unlike teams such as the Chicago Bulls — who’ve got a prize asset in Kirk Hinrich — the Mavericks have an owner, Mark Cuban, who’s willing to pay big bucks to field a competitive team.

5. I’d aruge that Howard isn’t a good fit at the weakside corner in Nate McMillan’s high/low zone offense, but this is such tremendous value for him that he could be flipped for someone who’d fit the system. Either way, though, the Trail Blazers need someone at small forward who can not only play stout one-on-one perimeter defense, but also stick it from beyond the arc at an efficient clip. No matter Howard’s reputation as a solid defender, his career 3PT% of less than 35% isn’t good enough to help the Trail Blazers spread the floor and allow Brandon Roy the opportunity to run the iso proficiently.

This has to be a trade submited by the Mavs. The Blazers dont pull the trigger on this trade JJ Barea is a solid back up change of pace point guard in the league not a starter which the Blazers need. Why trade your starter and two very promising young players for a position where the need to upgrade is not really that prevalent after the way Batum proformed this season.

If I am the Blazers, I do not make this trade for several reasons:

1. - Trading away the only “veteran” PG we have on the roster will leave us vulnerable to attack from this position. (Think the Aaron Brooks situation, but worse). While Barea provides a replacement PG for the team, with Bayless in the development process, I beleive Barea does not provide this team with much more than Sergio Rodriguez.

1. - Rudy Fernandez & Martell Webster are two valuable pieces of the championship puzzle. Both are reliable backups with the ability to not only hit big shots, but impact on the game in a variety of ways. In a package with these 3 players I feel this is too much to give up for Josh Howard (The sole purpose of this trade)

1. - While Josh Howard is an excellent player, who provides above average defence, rebounding and offensive skills there are many factors which turn me away from making this trade. A SF in the current Blazer system cannot be one who requires the ball in his hands, or one who does not shoot the 3 well.
   In my opinion, Josh Howard does not fit this description and would not be a good fit for the Blazers.

One final point I would make though would be the possibility of making a counter offer with a 3 team trade involving Chicago, Portland & Dallas:

Portland
T. Outlaw – OUT (Chicago)
S. Blake – OUT (Chicago)
C. Frye – OUT (Chicago)
S. Rodriguez – OUT (Dallas)
M. Webster – OUT (Dallas)
Hinrich – IN
J. Howard – IN

Dallas
J. Howard – OUT (Portland)
S. Rodriguez – IN
M.Webster – IN

Chicago
K. Hinrich – OUT (Portland)
S. Blake – IN
T. Outlaw – IN
C. Frye – IN

This could be an ideal solution for all parties involved with Portland receiving both Josh Howard and Kirk Hinrich.
As outlined above, Josh Howard is not a perfect fit for the Blazers, but for the trade outlined above it represents reasonable value. Sure it causes some havoc with the depth of the Blazers, but it does not involve dealing out valuable pieces of the Blazers roster.
Channing Frye is involved in a sign and trade in this deal (not 100% sure if this is able to be acheived)

The Blazers make this deal because:

• The loss of Outlaw and Webster hurt, but picking up Howard provides Defence, Rebounding & Scoring at the starting SF spot, allowing Batum to be used as a lock-down, impact defensive player.
• Picking up Hinrich provides defence, scoring and veteran experience at the PG spot (which arguably has been missing from the Blazers roster)

Dallas makes this deal because:

• Receive a PG who is currently playing for minimal salary along with a SF who has the chance to be a high output shooter
• Reduction in salary without the loss of major talent
• Injection of youth into an aging team

Chicago makes this deal because:

• They receive a PG with the ability to hit the 3, distribute the ball and not demand big minutes
• Receive a productive scorer (Outlaw) who can be used off the bench at the 3 & 4 spots, with the length to play disruptive defence and the ability to run with an up-tempo offence
• Salary relief in the form of removing Hinrich’s contract, while acquiring Blake ($4.2mil), Outlaw ($4mil) and Channing Frye (Sign & Trade for approx $3.8mil) all of which have the potential for financial relief.

This could be a reason why I am not actually a GM, but we will see….

We would be trading away 3 very good shooters who spread the floor well for the blazers. The Blazers were one of the most offensively efficient teams in the league, thanks in large part to their shooting, also remember the impact James Jones had on our team when he was hitting from deep. The trade off would be the defense that Josh Howard would be able to use his 7’2" wing span to disturb the passing lanes also he is a good rebounder for his position.

The positives of bringing Josh Howard in would be acquiring a near all star talent with great athleticism, playoff experience and hungry defense, he doesn’t appear to fit in when looking at the system that we run. SF in the corner to shoot the 3 and spread the floor, batum does a better job of that right now 37% from 3 pt land vs. career 34.5% from Howard also he would have a negative impact of the casual fan he has a poor reputation Marijuana use made public and Rudy has a reputation that can sell tickets and move merchandise in more then just Oregon or the states the financial impact from Spain would be lost as well. Howard also has a long history of ankle injuries and a

Howard would have more trade value on the open market but I am not in the habit of making trades for players that don’t fit my system unless I have a trade partner already set up to get a more suitable piece to the Blazers puzzle.

Position wise we would lose a pg, sg and sf. We would be bringing in a SG/ SF who is listed on some sites as 6’5"others 6’7". He could slide into the starting 3 and Batum could learn from him for a couple of years. but I would rather just have Batum learn on his own and develop faster. Batum is also a lot cheaper Howard in

Barea is a fast, small and short, point gaurd, coming off of shoulder surgery. he would have a hard time playing for Nate even as a back up, we would be in very desperate need of a point gaurd. Bayless is unproven and Sergio isn’t ready to start either.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=nlqb9o

Because John Hollinger sez this deal costs the Blazers 2 and the Mavericks 4 wins. And in real life, while somewhat enticing for both the answer stays the same. The Mavericks need to contend immediately while Nowitzki is still in his prime. They gain some nice young assets, but not of the kind that puts them over the top. They still value Howard highly (he struggled all last season with an ankle injury and still was productive when he played), and would only give him up for a surefire upgrade (e.g. I could see them move Howard for Josh Smith, or a package around Correy Maggette and another player). Barea became a fan and coach favorite last year in Dallas playing like an even more undersized AI often on shooting guard. Rudy’s current play duplicates what the Mavericks already have in Barea and Jason Terry. Steve Blake is not what they are looking for to lead the team in a more fast-paced offense either. They wouldn’t make this offer.

The Blazers gain one of the most underrated premier perimeter defenders in the league, which is something they should highly covet. While his off-court issues (weed, “unpatriotic joke”) are overblown by forum trolls, he is a smart guy who cares about the community and not a bad character. Offensively Howard is a jack of all trades master of none, but when healthy (surgery is done) a borderline All-Star. He would be a significant upgrade over the current perimeter players. But having to give up not just Rudy who is far from reaching the top of his trade value but also the starting point guard in Blake would be too much for the Blazers from their perspective. Barea is not the type of player to replace him in the starting lineup, even more so than Blake he should be the backup providing a spark off the bench. They also lose $2.3 million in cap space, which could be the difference to sign an attractive free agent or do another trade.

They might counter with an offer of Outlaw, Webster and a re-signed Channing Frye just for Howard. While this would increase the depth for Dallas, Cuban/Nelson likely still says no. Winning a title now is their No 1 goal.

Differences of opinion in trade evaluation generally is based on different fundamental beliefs about the goals of a team and the means of achieving those goals. Thus in order to properly evaluate a trade, you must spell out your vision for the team, and the means through which you believe the team can best achieve those means. Thus I give you my brief outline of the direction of the team and the best way to achieve that.

What is the state of the team?
With its current roster, Portland has enough young talent that it will be a lock to make the playoffs for the next decade and there is enough potential room for improvement on the team that they could win one (or multiple) championships without making a major move.
There is also the very realistic possibility that some of their players fail to reach their potential and the talent on the roster never amounts to winning a title without making a trade.

What are the goals of the team?
Ultimately the goal has to be to win a championship. Obviously, everyone would prefer that the championship window would open as soon as possible, but any move to open the championship window should never limit the team’s ability to grow into a contender for the next decade or so (e.g. You wouldn’t want to trade Portland’s roster for the Celtics roster to have a better shot at winning the title if it means you window of contention closes 8-10 years earlier)

How do you go about achieving immediate success without jeopardizing future contention?
First, identify the players who (if fully developed) are most essential to the championship window of a team. I would rank them as:
1. Oden: (Emphasis on fully developed.) Roy at his potential can win a championship. Oden at his potential can be the focal point of a dynasty.
2. Roy: (He is the best player on the team now, but only the SG’s have been the best player on a championship team (Jordan, Wade and Bryant) The first two had one of the 50 greatest players in the game on the court with them. Bryant is one of the 50 greatest (Jordan is the greatest.) It’s tough to build a dynasty around a SG.
3. Aldridge: If Aldridge reaches his potential, Roy and LA could be a younger Kobe and Gasol.
4. Batum: He has limitless potential. Already a good defender/perimeter shooter, the great MJ sees a little Scottie Pippen in him… I tend to agree.
5. Bayless. Controversial I know. While many people doubt that he will reach his potential, if he does, he has the greatest potential to be a mismatch against our seemingly likeliest of opponents (Lakers, Cavs)
6. Fernandez. Can easily become the third most talented player on the roster. Questionable if he can ever parlay that into a starting role. While many people see him in a Ginobili-type role, Ginobili had the luxury of starting SG’s who only played 20 minutes/night. Brent Barry is not Brandon Roy.
7. Martell Webster. His ceiling is lower than Batum’s and he is two years older, but he still could become the third option on a championship team.

Second, adjust the value based on the potential to reach each players upside.
1. Roy (He is already a perennial all-star)
2. Oden (The upside is too high to fall lower than this)
3. Aldridge (Best 3rd option for a team evaluating a decade of contention)
4. Batum (He looks so polished at 20 and is at a position the top 3 don’t fill
5. Fernandez (Almost a lock to reach his potential, but again, he is behind Roy)
6. Bayless (You know he’ll work hard his whole career, but does that translate to PG skills)
7. Webster (Second highest potential at SF, 3rd at SG… talented kid on a stacked roster.)

Third, Identify areas where the team needs to improve for the championship window to open earlier.
1. Improved PG defense
2. True 3rd Scorer
3. Veteran Experience
4. Playoff Experience
5. Physicality

Fourth, improve in identified areas with as little cost to the future as possible.
Ideally that means trading pieces who 1) Aren’t viewed as being part of the long term plans; and two once traded, wouldn’t create new areas for improvement if traded.
(This is why there is a lot of people making trade scenarios where people people only want to give up Outlaw, Sergio and Frye.)

Fifth, if you must trade someone viewed as key to the future of the team, try to acquire a player who would be equal to of higher on the list as the person being traded (If you have to trade Roy, make sure you get LeBron James back.)

It’s this step where I finally decide to nix the trade, because it doesn’t fit. By making the trade, Portland gives up two players that appear to be part of their longer term plans (Rudy and Webster.) They also trade away a player who opens up a need once traded away (Blake, true PG.)
The trade does bring in some of the desired qualities (Josh Howard: True 3rd Scorer; Playoff Experience) but not enough that it substantially changes the current window. If Portland is going to trade its 5th and 7th key pieces for the future, they should get a player ranks higher on the list or clearly opens the window.

The facts that the trade doesn’t fill enough needs to open a window for contention early and opens new ones while sacrificing key plays for the future without acquiring new one’s with a comparable impact in the future, I would have to turn down that trade.

The Dallas Mavericks call you and offer Josh Howard and Jose Juan Barea for a package of Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster, and Steve Blake. Do you make that deal? Why or why not?

I definitely don’t make this deal as KP.

1. Our biggest issue coming into this offseason is point guard. By offing our best point guard in return for an inferior one you would create an even bigger, less organized logjam of mediocre to bad point guards. This is essentially going in the exact opposite direction that we should want for this team. Barea is a decent, yet ill-suited point guard for what we’re looking for. He’s a bad defender and he’s not a particularly great (36%) threat from deep. Both seem to be among our top priorities from the position. You essentially eliminate a solid deep threat from the point guard position on the entire team (JJ, Sergio, Bayless). No one wants to see that trio pull this team down for an entire season looking for cohesion that may or may not ever come.

2. Josh Howard is a very nice small forward. You could argue he’s amongst the 10 best in the entire league. That said, he’s not a very good fit alongside Brandon Roy, which would be the whole reason you go out and pay this exorbitant price. He’s a very solid defender, which however nice, we already would have from Nic Batum, making him somewhat redundant. Howard’s game is based around his isolation game, which is essentially a much worse version of what we get from Brandon. His lackluster 3 point shooting is compounded by the fact that no only do we no longer have a legit threat from the point guard position (we would’ve gotten rid of Blake), but our best perimeter shooter (Rudy) would also have been dealt in this trade. Despite the fact Howard has only been in the league 6 years, he’s already 29 years old, which in the NBA means he’s on the downside of his career. He’s also statistically been getting worse for 3 years now, and has lost a little bit of his athleticism as he has been hampered by injuries in recent years. Another thing to consider before selling your soul for this 29 year old small forward that relies heavily on his athleticism is that he’s only signed for this year and next year (at 11 and 12 million per).

3. The salary implications and contract status of all players involved in this trade make this an impossible one to justify given the short life of the benefits (if there really even are short term benefits). If this trade were to happen we’d be taking on 3.1 million dollars of additional salary, eliminating much of our ability to do lobsided trades in the future, as well as just having cap space to work with for free agency if we choose to be under the cap. In addition to this you’re trading a year of owning Steve Blake’s rights, 4 years of owning Martell Webster’s rights and 4 years of owning Rudy Fernandez’s rights for merely 2 years of Josh Howard and 2 years of JJ Barea. You’re essentially mortgaging too much of your future on a gamble that you don’t have to make, especially right now. Is this team even Championship ready with Howard? I wouldn’t bet on it.

4. Steve Blake has been a rock at point guard for a couple years now, and unless the team upgrades at the position he’s essential to this team maintaining much of the gains of last year. Although I personally think he should eventually go, this trade in which we don’t acquire his replacement bares too much risk. His three point shooting and ability to properly run Nate’s offense makes him a nice yet unspectacular piece we’d miss.

5. Martell Webster we would be selling for pennies on the dollar if he were moved in this kind of trade. He’s still only 22 years old and still has lots of promise left (preseason Sac game). He may turn into a solid defender of bigger perimeter players, a skill Batum lacks, and we’ll eventually need. In addition to that, few have a prettier three point shot than him, and he’s a really nice fit next to Roy in the future, or any other penetrating isolation based player that needs the defense spread out to succeed. His contract is also very buyer friendly (4 more years at 5 million per). That is around a million under the MLE, and on the open market that’s probably what he’d be earning. Although he probably loses his small forward spot to Batum, he’s a very valuable commodity and shouldn’t be sold unless you get proper value for him. Given his contract status with the Blazers it’d be hard to imagine a time when he is worth less than right now.

6. Rudy Fernandez was the 3rd best shooting guard in the entire league his age or younger (24). Trading him now, when you own his rights for 4 more years at between 1 and 2 million dollars per year is a bad business decision. It’s hard to imagine him not improving significantly over his rookie seasons numbers either. Given his success with Brandon Roy (+12 per 48) on the court this year, you can’t with any validity call him out for not being a fit. When you’re a fit with Brandon Roy on the court in such a dramatic way, even if it’s only in certain situations (12-15 minutes per game), that helps this team win basketball games. He certainly fits much better with Roy on the court offensively than Josh Howard ever would. While some complain about Rudy’s D, these complaints will soften as the big fella and this teams overall defense improves with time. His gambling will cost the team less, and thus its rewards will be greater.

7. Basic age and time factor (playoff ages). You get Howard at 30 and 31 years old. You get Barea at 25 and 26 years old. You lose Blake at 30. You lose Rudy at 25, 26, 27 and 28 years old. You lose Martell at 23, 24, 25 and 26 years old. 2 years of Howard’s prime IMO isn’t worth 4 years of Rudy’s prime alone, let alone everything else you’d have to part with in this trade. On paper, getting a near all star level small forward is great. If you start to dig a little deeper you find out that this just isn’t a move that Portland needs to make. This team doesn’t need to and shouldn’t put years 2-10 at jeopardy for the hopes of being slightly better next year. It just doesn’t make sense to ruin all of KP’s patience in a desperation move like this one.

Ultimately, neither team pursues this deal, but I’ll address it (briefly) from the Blazers’ perspective:

We have 2 more immediate needs – Starting PG and backup banger at the 4. This does nothing for either need. Blake is a more effective PG than Barea…the numbers bear this out (I would link but I know that there are others who already have. This GM doesn’t like to duplicate effort. While Howard is a high caliber talent, his game wouldn’t fit with Roy’s game (our main focus) as well as the pieces we already have. Add to that the fact that Howard’s numbers indicate a degradation rather than an improvement or even a maintained plateau (PER is awfully simplistic, but it’ll work well enough here) over the last 3 years. Nevermind the fact that this deal leaves us with no legitimate starting PG. This deal actually makes us worse.

The Blazers are better off looking elsewhere for players that fit. Right now Rudy’s value is very (perhaps too) high. We can do better. Martell’s value is, by a similar token, too low. He’d be viewed as nothing more than a throw-in. We’re better off holding onto him for at least another half-season to see if he is able to come back effectively.

Very briefly, Cuban, in spite of that fact that he would LOVE to get Rudy (butts in the seats), he doesn’t want Martell and doesn’t need Blake.

As a player, Howard can win games for a team. As a person, he can destroy a franchise. Howard can get hot, but he can also mock the American flag and bring attention to a Blazers franchise that has worked hard to get media attention through basketball success not off the court shenanigans. From a strickly basketball standpoint I wouldn’t do this trade either. Howard is not enough to put us in the championship talk next season and we would be losing some depth and future. Barea is a nice player and has flashes of greatness, but he’s a good energy guy and a backup. It doesn’t make sense to give up a guy who knows the offense, knows how Nate likes to run things, and plays well with Brandon. If the Blazers pulled the trigger on this trade by the trade deadline people would still be screaming for an answer at the point and an answer from KP as to why he’s trying to bring the jailblazers back.

Just a heads up — there are 30 NBA teams but you said you’re only choosing the top 29 essays!

I would be concerned with Howard’s ankle first and foremost. That thing bothered him most of the season and it still had not healed at the end of their playoff series. Webster’s injury has to concern them as well, if the mavericks were convinced that Howards ankle was going to be fine, they aren’t getting very good value for him from the blazers. If the mavs are concerned with Howards ankle, the deal makes sense for them, but then why would the blazers do it?

The second most important reason I don’t like the deal is that Howard is just a modest three point shooter. I firmly believe that Roy benefits hugely from having two 3 point shooters playing the perimeter positions alongside of him. I like his mid-range game, and love his defense, but worry if he can be as effective in our offense as he was in Dallas’s.

One of the biggest red flags for me is that we are giving up our starting point guard and not getting one back in return. Bayless certainly isn’t ready to start, and neither is Barea. Although I think that Barea is a nice young point guard and would like to have him, I am not sure he is a pg that Nate would want. Also, Steve Blake should only be traded if it nets a starting pg, or their is a separate trade lined up to get one, which doesnt appear to be the premise here.

This hurts Batums development. Howard only has 2 years left on his contract. Rudy, Web, and Blake is a lot to give up for a 2 year stop gap. At the end of his contract, he will likely want to start on his new team if he is able to get healthy. The blazers might not be willing to do that for him, which would mean we lose him in free agency and get nothing for him.

This does absolutely nothing to clear up the log jam at small forward. Travis Outlaw would either eat up all of Batums minutes, or Batum would beat Outlaw out and ruin his Trade value. Neither are desirable.

All in all, I don’t really like this trade for either side. I think value wise its pretty close, but the pieces just don’t quite fit well enough to make it worthwhile for both teams…

1. while it does give us a bone-a-fide starter at small forward, we still have 3 at that position and thus a log jam

2. it makes our point guard situation worse

It’s a question of need. With Howard, you’re getting, at best, a mild upgrade over what Martell could have brought you. Count me among the crazy ones who have faith in Martell. Howard declined last year in his efficiency, and it’s easy to see that happening again. Not to mention, there’s the off court issues he have which have been red flags for Portland and the media since the Jail Blazer era.

Barea doesn’t fit our PG needs at all either. He’s essentially a mildly better version of Sergio Rodriguez, and fairly equal to Steve Blake. The team’s need is a veteran point guard who can play some defense and hit the open three pointer, a Steve Blake+, not a quick guy with little D.

All this being said, Rudy’s the biggest piece in the deal, and we’re getting back marginal improvement in the other two positions for him. We would need either better players or better fits for what we would give up. This thing could easily turn out to be the deal of the year for the Mavericks if the Blazers took it. Terry and Rudy would be great, Blake is a good stop-gap, and Martell’s ceiling is at Howard.

because I’m itchin’ to see a move made on our roster. If it takes me being Trader Bob for a second and pulling a deal so we don’t look like we’re staying put, then so be it. We’d probably win as many games as last year too, so I could potentially keep my job afterward.

I scoff at the notion you present me… two bad ankles, a contract I don’t want, mouth that doesn’t know when to stay shut, and bad habits that give the mouth something to talk about? Don’t want him becuase he doesn’t fit the culture. Next!

(I didn’t read any of the other responses yet because I don’t want to be swayed by their logic/arguments.)

I would not take this deal from the Mavericks, mainly because it doesn’t accomplish what a trade needs to accomplish this off season (if one is made). I like Howard, but don’t think he brings the toughness or veteran leadership we would be wanting in a trade. And as much as I hated watching JJ Barea kill the Blazers in summer league a few years ago, I don’t think he’s a very good addition to this team either. For as much value (to ourselves at least) as we’re sending out, we should be receiving back what we really need.

1. Veteran point guard.
2. Less of a log jam at small forward.

This offer helps because now there’s something to work with, whether that’s with Dallas or with another team to show them what Rudy’s value is on the market. There really aren’t many PGs in the league I would feel good trading for at this point, but maybe having this on the table would help in negotiations with other teams.

If we were going to make a move for anyone on the Mavericks, I would much rather try to sign Kidd or work with them on a sign-and-trade. He was actually pretty good again this year on offense, and played better defense than he’s played for a while. The biggest reason I would have been against it was that he isn’t a very good shooter, but his true-shooting percentage was the highest it’s been in his career, at .550. And his effective field goal percentage was .522, also the highest of his career (by a LOT!). If he could do that in an offense with no real low-post presence, just other threats to shoot, I think he could be even better with Roy, Aldridge, and Oden. Also, his usage percentage was at the lowest of his career, meaning he actually had the ball less than he has in the past. It was a significant drop, too, so that it wouldn’t be a huge adjustment to be the fourth option on offense in Portland. In fact, he’s probably a pretty great fourth option at this point. He still averaged 9 points, 8.7 assists, and 6.2 rebounds per game this year. Oh yeah, he also averaged the fewest turnovers per game for his career. That probably has something to do with the usage percentage, but that’s still pretty good.

The idea would be for him to come in as the starter for the next few years as Bayless develops. If we had to go the way of a sign-and-trade I would be a little unhappy with the size and length of the deal, but I think it would be much less than he’s been making. I would rather have a two year deal in place, but three isn’t much worse. If we were able to just sign him outright this would open us up to make a few smaller moves to deal with the log jam, since we would have already gotten a veteran presence to help get us through our window into championship territory.

So many people have already made points more eloquently than I can so I’m not expecting a GM-ship or even a GM-tugboat, but I have three points.

First, Webster’s trade value will never be lower than it is now. He’s coming off a year long injury so if KP decides he wants to move him I’d wait until close to the trade deadline next season. Second, this would leave us without a veteran point guard and we saw this season how the offense runs so much better with Blake as a stabilizing force. And lastly, RUDY! RUDY! RUDY! I don’t want to see him go, especially not to my second most hated team.

In one way Josh Howard makes good sense for us. He always starts off strong, so Roy could sit back, relax, let him score 12 points in the first quarter and then take over while Howard scores 6 points the rest of the game. We wouldn’t need to worry about slow starts or him stepping on Roy’s toes in the 4th.

this is not a trade I would want to do from a Blazers perspective. It leaves us too weak at the point guard position. – Elgin

He hates this country (which might fit in fine on Mark Cuban’s team) and would poison the relationship between many of the people who pay to watch the team and the franchise.

The last time Carlisle had to coach a team that dumped its problems, it lost Cap’n Jack and Artest for pennies on the dollar, and had O’neill descend into a permanent shame spiral.
Maybe he’s worried about seeing it again.

It’s not hard to imagine. Just think of the meaningless November game next year when JJ visits OKC and the offbase racial epithets fly from the stands. OKC fans will yell at him calling him a “dirty euro”, not realizing that Puerto Rico is pretty much in America anyway. JJ will ball his adorably tiny fists together and pout, “I am NOT going to cry” he mutters to himself. After a flagrant foul from enforcer Kevin Durant when Durant starts taking the other teams foul shots as well as his own (still hitting freebies at a 90% clip for both teams) Berea goes to the bench and curls up inside one of Dampier’s shoes to escape the vicious taunts. Suddenly in a graceful arc that seems to violate the laws of time and space with it’s slow motion path, a
Security is unable to stop the shins of 17 OKC patrons from being punched and slightly bruised. Berea is able to avoid being suspended for any games, as there is no definitive video footage of him even entering the stands since he can’t be seen over the folding chairs.

What does this trade do for both teams?
It gives the Blazers a guy who can do it all at a pretty efficient rate in Howard.
And it gives them a guy to sit on the bench.
Did JJ play any minutes at all last year without Kidd also in the game?

It gives the Mavs a guy who might never play again (sorry Webster, but look at what happened to TB after he broke his foot).
A point guard whose main drawback in my mind is feeding post players.
And Rudy who would work really really well with Kidd and Dirk. He could just run screens and cuts to the hoop all day with those guys.

I think it would work for both teams on the court in the regular season. But it does not make either one better in the long term. It shortens the Blazer bench and puts extra pressure on Bayless, but adds a more versatile threat to play next to Brandon if teams try to double him up top.

Carlisle is a defensive minded coach. Giving him Rudy, Dirk, and Blake, you’re going to be asking a lot of Dampier and Kidd on the defensive end.

Consider this my hat thrown into the ring. I want to fantasy draft for the Magic.
I feel that would be the easiest one to do this year.
Please vote for me. I won’t let you down.

Barea is a horizontal change at point guard. Different but not better. Howard simply has too many bone headed issues to “fit the culture”.

If this is the only deal the Trail Blazers will complete this off-season, then I would not pull the trigger…

1.) The most efficient lineup for the Trail Blazers last season (according to Net 48 minute production on Basketball-Reference.com) was the lineup of Blake-Rudy-Roy-Aldridge-Przybilla… In this trade, we give up two of the members of our best lineup for one starter (Howard) and one role player.

2.) Howard is a much more efficient third scorer then we currently have on the roster (which is why I implied that if a secondary move followed – i.e. a move for Hinrich – this would be a more acceptable trade) but his scoring comes from mid-range and around the basket. In our current offensive system, the small forward spends a great deal of time isolated along the wings and shoots a great deal of corner three-pointers. In 2008-2009, Howard only shot 18 of 52 from either corner (34.6%) which is startling because the corner three-pointer has been statistically proven to be a relatively efficient shot. Conversely, Rudy shot 42 of 106 from both corners (39.6%) and this isn’t even considering Martell Webster’s three-point shooting ability.

3.) As an isolated trade, you also have to consider the drop off from Steve Blake to either Sergio Rodriguez or Jose Juan Barea… Barea is a spark plug, no doubt, but if Sergio can’t live up to the expectations of “Sarge”, then can we honestly expect Barea will? Barea would be an upgrade to our bench if the deal was Sergio+Rudy+Martell, but the downgrade from Blake to Barea/Rodriguez would give Coach McMillan a corollary he would never recover from. Barea does nothing to address our defensive effectiveness from the point guard position (in fact, it cripples us even further) and it leaves us wide open for guard penetration, which could potentially increase the pressure on Oden and Przybilla to defend the rim and increase the likelihood of foul trouble on our bigs.

4.) From a salary perspective, Howard is only signed through 2010-2011 which is right about the time the Blazers will be locking up our core long term. Brandon Roy will be a max player starting in 2010, LaMarcus Aldridge will be somewhere between a $10mil player and a max player, and when you figure in the $10 mil for Howard, that leaves us with about $35-40mil tied up in 3 players. Beyond these 3, you’d have Nicolas Batum and Jerryd Bayless still on rookie contracts, Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla could be re-signed using Bird Rights, but you’d have very little remaining to address the PG issue without running into the luxury tax territory.

Two key ingredients of the Blazers offence is the three point shot and players who can play more then one position. Steve, Rudy, and Martel are all fine three point shooters who can play multiple positions. The first quality spreads the floor and allows Brandon to work his magic. The second allows varied and confusing matchups which takes opponents out of what they want to do and makes winning easier. The Blazers get an upgrade at small forward, but take a hit at the point. I think Nate would hate this trade.

If you don’t back your claim with evidence, please don’t state your opinion as if it were fact.

My reasoning for not trading, why even think about who is going for who? Martell is still injured/recovering, blake is recovering from surgery, Howard has jacked up knees, neither team would want to trade their guys until healthy IMHGMO. As far as the healthy horses, Sergio for Barrea would make more sense for Dallas as far as cap relief goes, and Rudy may be in a similar situation as he is in portland, trying to find minutes behind martell’s flying cousin, of course Carlise is not afraid to run a 12 guard rotation either probably, but yeah, too problems with this trade.

But just barely. As stated above by nearly everybody, the trade would improve the three at a major expense to the point guard position. With the loss of Rudy (one of Portland’s best trading chips right now) and cap space, Portland would also have limited ability to address that position going forward. Basically it becomes Bayless or bust, which is an awful lot of pressure to put on a second year guy.

If the Mavs were willing to swap out Blake for Outlaw, however, I would take that deal. Figuring that Dallas is the most logical place for Kidd to sign, their need for another point in Blake is limited. Rather, Outlaw could provide them with some needed scoring, or just additional cap space.

While the styles of Roy and Howard may not mesh perfectly, Howard gives them somebody else who can actually create their own shot, and more importantly, get into the paint on occassion. As the Houston series showed, Portland could use an additional playmaker as well as some more toughness.

Dallas might be shopping Howard after this year if he has a strong season and they think they can get equivalent value for him. Rudy had a good rookie season, but Webster’s injury year and the uncertainty of his ability to contribute when he returns to action makes him a trade liability. Blake would make an acceptable backup to Kidd, so I don’t have the issues with that part of the deal that others seem to. Still, a young starter and one-time all-star for a second year bench player doesn’t strike me as a great move for Dallas.

On the flip side, I think the Blazers are getting the better end of the deal talent-wise (unless Webster comes back unexpectedly strong), but Josh Howard isn’t sending the kind of messages that the team has been cultivating the last few years. Most athlete faux pas are overblown, but the situation reminds me of Rasheed Wallace to some degree – it’s not just that Howard speaks his mind, it’s the ideas going through that mind that many members of the NBA fan-base are put off by. He’s a productive player, and he seems to work within the framework of the team. But off the court, he’s controversial, which is a distraction the Blazers aren’t looking for.

Barea reminds me of Mike James – a guy who can be productive in the right situation, but as a scoring guard he’s really undersized, and has repeatedly proven himself to be a defensive liability. He’s not an NBA starter. In fact, it’s not clear to me he’d be able to wrestle minutes away from Sergio, so trading away Blake and taking back Barea leaves the Blazers with a hole at the point guard position – this move would put them in a position where they would have to go out and make another trade to pick up a starting point guard.

however, I would.
We instantly get an allstar small forward, (although why Dallas would take Webster is beyond me) and makes travis outlaw expendable. Then we can move Trout straight up for Hinrich and eat the cap space. Renounce Frye and we have a fantastic starting lineup.

One of the things I think Dave and others have tried to stress is that no matter how much young talent we have, in reality, there are only so many minutes to go around. The word of the day is CONSOLIDATE. this does not involve a pick I am assuming so we still have #24 to get a Euro to stash or a backup SG. Look I know its hard to move Rudy, we are just seeing what he can do, but lets be real people, he is never going to be a starter at SG. If one day we decide to move Brandon to PG or SF, then perhaps, but this gives us an opportunity to make a SERIOUS push at the title.

Some of you have wanted a speedy pointguard to match up with CP3 and Brooks. Barea is that. Some of you have clamored for a scoring SF, Howard is that. We still use Batum as a defensive stopper while letting him learn the game. We use the #24 pick on a SG or backup PF and use any left over capspace to sign a backup.

Hinrich/Barea/Bayless
Roy/#24/Batum
Howard/Batum
LMA/#24/Birdman?
Oden/Pryzbilla

Tell me that Hinrich, Roy, Howard, LMA and Oden arent a top 5 lineup

Hinrich, Barea,

“Why don’t you arrange a three-way so that we can have Howard and T-Mac. That would give us a 50% chance of having one of them healthy AND mentally there on any given night, while tying up an equal (50%) portion of our salary cap.”

Why I’m not interested:
- Howard would either add to our SF log-jam, or be unhappy behind BRoy.
- At SF, we get more production out of the Batum-Outlaw tag-team right now, and Batum is developing.
- Howard doesn’t seem to care much about playing on some nights
- Howard isn’t regarded as the best character to have in the locker room
- Barea is too small to be a starting PG, especially in the west. He was the reserve behind a senior citizen. He looks like he’ll be a very capable reserve.
- Blake is a borderline starter/reserve PG, and has shown he can lead a playoff team. We could use an upgrade if available, but this trade leaves us without a starter (Bayless isn’t ready, and still hasn’t proven he will be a PG).
- The SF position is an easier one to fill with non-superstars when assembling a championship team. I’d rather let two or three of our current SF’s develop, hoping to have an inexpensive solution, rather than committing big money to Howard. Instead, I’d use the cap space on veterans at the PG and back-up PF positions.

I found conflicting info on Howard’s salary, one site mentioned a team option for 10-11, but that doesn’t seem likely. If that were the case, you could look at releasing him next year and going after a big free agent. Probably not a great move for Portland, however.

Normally, if a team were looking to deal, I’d explore alternatives, but I don’t see Dallas having anything we want. Sergio for Barea maybe?

To Quote Dave’s previous post:

4. Character factors in. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays if the Blazers trade up and have not interviewed the guy the end up selecting.

Character still matters to Portland. Sure we have a better locker room than we did during the Jail-Blazers era, more steady heads, good hearts, up and coming leaders. I don’t think now is the time to introduce such a volatile element into that locker room.

Additionally, Howard doesn’t fit… Does McMillan exile Outlaw or Batum to the end of the bench in order to give Howard his Starter minutes? Does he move Outlaw to backup PF? This trade creates more questions than it answers. And the questions it answers are ones no one in Portland was asking. So no, Portland does not make this trade.

Because Mr.Howard is a knuckehead

Simply put, Josh Howard is an effective but underwhelming player. He can help you on the court, but possibly be a hindrance off of the court. At 28, he’s at the peak of his career and isn’t likely to “blossom” into an All-Star, ever.
Berea is an exciting player who had something of a breakout year. However, he was a relative unknown until this point, and also greatly benefits from the current NBA rules with regards to hand-checking and other physical play on the perimeter. It’s possible that 2008-2009 was the peak of the ‘small, lightning-quick point guard’ or perhaps this year was the vanguard. My gut says that if there is any change in the rules, it won’t be to let offensive players move more freely.

On the other side, we have (1) Rudy Fernandez. Fernandez just had a great rookie campaign, showed poise and assertiveness in the playoffs, and improved defense as the season progressed. Unlike Howard, he is exceptionally popular. He’s got a sometimes-All Star (ala Detlef Schrempf) career ahead of him, with a small chance of becoming a fully legitimate star in his own right.

Martell Webster is a total wild-card. He could end up being a insanely well-rounded player with a + outside stroke, or a guy who is good but not good enough at any phase of the game to ever contribute meaningfully.

Steve Blake brings reliable, steady, generally-wont-hurt-the-team point guard play and a vastly underrated offensive game and outside shot.

Basically without looking into contracts, and rating guys at their position from 1-10 (10 = superstar, 9 = regular all-star, 8 = occasionall all-star, 7 = good starter, 6 = role player, 5 = nba average, 4 = servicable backup, 3 = replacement level) Howard is a 5-8 swingman who could possible kill your team off the court, Berea is a 3-7 PG. Rudy = is a 6-9 swingman, webster is a 3-7 swingman, and blake is a 4-6 PG. I don’t see how the deal makes sense for the Blazers, as you are not really upgrading at any one position, and as noted below, means there is no sub for Brandon Roy.

1. Is this a pg upgrade? No. Barrea is not a significant upgrade.

2. Would Howard be a good fit for the Blazers? For the Jailblazers, yes. For our current incarnation, no. His presence would negatively impact team chemistry; we do not need to add a free radical to the mix.

3. I would trade Fernandez, Blake, and Webster for the right combination of players, but this is not that combination.

No way in hell he pulls the trigger for a 4’6" point guard…

Our (Blazers) areas of concern are as follows:

1) Back-up PF/Veteran
2) PG -either quality back-up veteran or Starting point upgrade over Steve Blake
3) Minutes at the 3 spot
4) Third option scorer for the playoffs

This trade would cause the following to happen:
1) Would trade the most consistent point guard, leaving us with two "projects" fighting for the back-up point guard minutes and leaving us with a 4th year player whose team scored more points when he was on the bench than scored when he was in the game. (per 82games.com)
2) We would still have a log jam at the 3. However we would have a starting 3. Therefore we need to find minutes for Batum and for Outlaw. Using Howard’s last year for MPG you come out with 32 minutes, that leaves 16 minutes of back-up time. Let’s say Batum stays the back-up at 12 minutes, which leaves 4 minutes of time there for Outlaw and the rest of his minutes come from the back-up of Aldridge at the 4.
3) We would have a line-up of back-ups as follows Sergio-Rudy-Batum-Outlaw-Prysbilla/Oden. I see lots of scoring from this unit, with some banger attitude in Joel/Greg but no other "banger" out there and a definite lack of veteran leadership.

In short the positives to this trade to the blazers are as follows:
1) get a third option for a go to guy in Howard
2) Get a quick young point-guard (But we have one just stashed deep in our bench)

The Negatives are as follows:
1) Get younger at the point guard position
2) Keep playing Travis Outlaw as a Power Forward
3) No Banger
4) No consistency at the Point (40% versus 35% 3 point shooter)

Needs Addressed:
1) Third Option for playoffs
Needs not Addressed:
1) Back-up Banger for PF
2) PG
3) Minutes at the Three

As acting GM of the Blazers I would refuse this deal. However This has potential if we counter with a trade not involving Blake. Bayless instead of Blake would fit nicely and would make Dallas Younger as well. (However this does not fit due to Salary cap, it might have to wait for a uneven trade after the draft)
Then we could trade Sergio and Outlaw and some Draft Picks for a older veteran PF to back-up Aldridge. This would then kick open the door and challenge the L@kers.

PS. I know I am available on the 23rd :)

The Dallas Mavericks call you and offer Josh Howard and Jose Juan Barea for a package of Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster, and Steve Blake. Do you make that deal? Why or why not?

Why Not…

Howard – “Character issues”. Potentially stunts Batum’s growth. Batum is playing better defense at age 20, then Howard was playing at age 24 coming out of Wake Forest. This says volumes about him on this end of the ball.

Barea – Not an upgrade over Blake, not as experienced & not on the same level as Blake from 3 either. Although he does move better without the ball then Blake, but not nearly as good as Rudy(who we would be giving up in this situation)

Giving up Blake & Rudy makes Roy less effective immediately. They are a big chunk of our 3pt shooting & I think taking that away is a poor move.

I could go into the salary cap situation and all that, but there’s no need simply based on fit.

The deal is bad for the Blazers because:

1) JJ Barea is an undersized PG that is a defensive liability. Decent scorer and penetrator, but gets absolutely abused on defense. The Blazers are looking to upgrade the PG position defensively, so that doesn’t work. Also, the Blazers trade away Steve Blake, a proven starter, and bring in Barea, a PG only seeing spot minutes behind Jason Kidd, which is a step backward. Barea also largely duplicates Sergio Rodriguez, so without another pending deal our PGs are now Barea, Rodriguez, and Bayless…none of whom have any significant experience, a death wish for a playoff team like the Blazers

2) Josh Howard has major injury issues and would compete for minutes with Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw. The Blazers would be sending out a young/talented SF and would be getting back an older player at the same position with the same level of injury concers, which doesn’t aid the attempt to clear up the rotation at SF. Howard would be an upgrade at the position, but a developing Nicolas Batum should see most of the minutes and Howard would not be a player to bring off the bench. Add in the fact that Howard stuggled to stay on the floor last year with major ankle problems, and the Blazers would be better off sticking with Webster due to the fact he is much younger and would thus be more likely to successfully recover from his injuries. Webster is also a better outside shooter than Howard, which would fit better next to Roy and Aldridge.

3) In addition to shipping out our only PG with significant experience in Blake, we also send Rudy, depleting our bench and its offensive punch, as well as creating a hole at the 2 behind Brandon Roy. Howard and Batum could fill some of those minutes but neither are the shooter Rudy is, and considering his age, talent, and affordable contract he would be a huge asset to part with

The deal is bad for the Mavericks because:

1) The Mavericks’ window to be contenders hinges around Dirk Nowitzki, and to a lesser extent Jason Kidd. Once they decline, Dallas will have to rebuild completely. While Howard has been injured, he still has a bunch of experience and savvy, and is used to playing with them. While Webster would help them get younger, he too has had big time injury problems and would be a big gamble to trade for, in addition to the fact that Howard is a much more rounded offensive player. The Mavericks have seen some decent play out of James Singelton and Antoine Wright, but neither is ready to play starter’s minutes on a playoff team.

2) JJ Barea is a great change-of-pace guy for Jason Kidd, a player that is both a solid outside shooter and deceptively good off the pick-and-roll. While Blake would bring experience and a steady hand at the backup PG, he’s older, slower, and less of a creator than Barea, and would not fit as well with Dallas’ offensive system. Replacing Barea with Blake would also give the Mavs 2 older PG’s, with no young legs behind them

3) Rudy Fernandez would compete/duplicate too much with Jason Terry. While Rudy is younger and more affordable, Terry is the locker room leader of that team and brings a ton of confidence and swagger to the table. He also has a ton of experience, especially in the playoffs, and is just as good of a shooter as Rudy. This goes back to my previous comment on the Mavs window for winning…they need production and experience now while Dirk is in his prime.

Now you can make sure to get people who will write interesting things about their decisions when drafting. That’s not me, so I won’t answer.

I was hoping this might be my first mock draft. But we have a dr’s appointment on the 23rd, and I can’t guarantee responsiveness. I don’t want to be That Guy, who delays everyone because he/she can’t be reached when it’s time for the pick.

But since it’s a fun thread, here’s a quick answer to the question:

I have to assume this trade is in a vacuum (eg. no other activity has happened), and as such I’ll turn it down. As I don’t believe Blake is the PG to take us to a title, we need a starting PG to replace him. With the loss of Rudy and Steve (and to a lesser extent Martell), it reduces our chance of being able to make a trade for a decent PG (we’d basically be dangling Outlaw, Sergio, draft picks and cash). We could still try to sign one in free agency, but we’re pushing our luck that those players won’t get better offers (or get re-signed by their own teams, who make a trade to clear room).

Howard does fill a hole for us… but it’s a hole that’s less a priority than other holes, primarily PG. And this does nothing for that hole, and reduces the assets available to fill it. Barea may have had a good game against us this year, but he’s not going to fill the PG hole.

Also, Martell is crazy undervalued right now. He’s not great at the moment, and he’s still recovering (and foot injuries are scary). But if, as a GM, you think he’s starting quality over the next few years, you will doubly want to focus the use of your assets on other priorities, considering Batum is growing behind him. If you think he may never recovery (for whatever reason), there will be other trades in which you can include him.

Howard would be a definite improvement in the position (and I think Portland would accept him despite his checkered past), but I don’t think the improvement justifies the lesser likelihood of improving the PG position. Also, I don’t think there’s a counter offer from Portland… Without some level of highway robbery, Josh is worth enough that any reasonable offer would reduce our flexibility to make other deals.

I don’t think the blazers should do this deal unless there’s already a deal for Hinrich or another starting-quality PG in place. While Blake’s deficiencies hae been well-documented on this site, it is undeniable that the team started to lose its composure towards the end of the stretch he missed. While Barea may be an offensive upgrade from Sergio or Bayless, his defense is about on par with Sergio’s, which is not what this team needs right now. Barea would be well-suited to filling Rudy’s role off the bench as an energetic scoring threat, with the added bonus that he can play the point.
Howard represents a huge upgrade at SF. He is the 15-20 ppg 3rd scorer we need behind Brandon and LaMarcus. He’s a committed and able defender who can hit the catch-and shoot 3s demanded of SFs in our system and has the ability to create his own shot and get to the line. He was a key player in Dallas’ 2006 title run and 67-win 2007 season. At 29, He has several years of his prime in front of him. He has demonstrated good character through most of his career. While there have been some recent bumps in the road, i have no doubt that he would rapidly fit in with the Blazers’ culture.
Unfortunately, this trade in isolation leaves us with 3 undersized PGs with no starting experience in the NBA. Blake’s steady hand at PG was a key factor in our success last year, and we are likely to regress without him or a player of greater caliber at PG.

The goal of the Blazer’s off-season is to streamline the roster and set a solid playing rotation. The only two positions the Blazers have set are C (Przybilla/Oden) and SG (Roy/Rudy). The PF rotation has a vacancy at the backup, whereas the PG (Blake/Sergio/Bayless) and SF (Batum/Outlaw/Webster) positions are mired in a logjam.

This trade would improve the uncertainty at starting SF (Howard), but do nothing to clear up the glut of young talent backing it up (Outlaw/Batum). It would destroy the little certainty the Blazers have at PG by throwing the pecking order into chaos (Barea/Sergio/Bayless all career back-ups). Additionally, this trade would create a problem for the Blazers at backup SG, which is currently a position of strength.

From a straight talent perspective, this trade is great. Consolidating some of our mid-to-lesser talent for a veteran player with Finals experience who would immediately replace LeMarcus as the 2nd-best player on the team is awfully sexy, but it doesn’t accomplish the Blazer’s off-season goal.

This trade does not balance the roster.

Should we trade Rudy, Webster, and Blake?
for the Slight and Small, or the slightly baked?

At 29, just past his prime,
Howard’s got rebounds, but not a single dime.

The Dallas black hole he seems to be,
earning the Big German the name No-win-ski.

Barea, the slayer? He’s like Nash?
Just missing another layer?

The one on top, to spell it out,
and its not just height the gods left out.

When molding the clay, that became Jose one day.
The gods’ did forgot he’d need brains to play.

The best thing about this trade,
is it’d take two Blazer killers away from the NBA.

Does this mean we need nothing,
to find the Larry O’Brien light?

As Public enemy would say,
“Hell no! We ain’t alright”

To follow the shine,
from the trophy in Laker-Land.

We need to let go,
of some cards from our hand.

But not this trade, unless it was fantasy,
and even then all our girlfriends would scream “DON’T TRADE RUDY!”.

Here’s why.

First of all we would be left with a point guard rotation of Barea, Sergio, and Bayless, which I am not comfortable with. I don’t think Barea is a starting point guard in this league and obviously Bayless isn’t ready yet. I’m OK with Blake holding down the fort for one more year with Bayless backing him up and hoping that gives Jerryd enough playing time and experience to take over for good next year. I’d feel better about the PG position if we could get Hinrich to be our starter for the next two or three years until Jerryd was definitely ready to take over as the starter. We cannot get weaker at the point this offseason and I believe that this trade does that. Either stick with Blake or get someone better.

Second, I really like Martell. I’m perfectly comfortable with he and Nick holding down the SF position this year, along with a little Rudy sprinkled in. I bought in to last year being Martell’s breakout season before he got injured. With his shooting, athleticism, and work ethic, I’m pretty confident that he has a big jump in production left in him and I think he’s ready to make it. The only thing I’m not sure of with him is if he’ll make the jump defensively to being a really good defender. But if he doesn’t, Batum is right there to be that guy. That’s why I like the combination of the two of them. I think they compliment each other greatly and they don’t tie up a lot of cap space at the position which is icing on the cake.

Rudy is actually the player I could part with the easiest in this scenario because, while I love his game, I don’t think he can play SF or PG full time and there isn’t much time available backing up Brandon. I would like to keep him around for a couple more years, though, getting those backup minutes at the two and playing a little spot duty in a three-guard line-up, and with Brandon playing the point. But if he goes this offseason to improve our team, I can live with that.

As far as Josh Howard is concerned, he’s pretty much the opposite of Martell Webster. Not a great long range shooter but capable. Has proven his ability to create his own shot and is a good defender, but he’s also a knuckle head. Talent wise he is an upgrade at SF, but he’s also a little scary to me because I’m not sure if he’s gonna hold together off the court and I think it’s likely that his game, which is based on athleticism, will be on the decline as we are in our championship window.

My bottom line is this. I’d rather have Howard than Martell this year, but I’m not sure I’d say the same next year or the year after which makes me hesitant. The PG situation this trade would leave us in is in my mind unacceptable so unless there was another move in addition to this one that would address that need I have to pass. And while I’m not against moving Rudy for the right deal, I don’t think this is that deal. I also don’t like the idea of trading all of our best three-point shooters in one move like this. This was a strength of our team last year and I would like it to remain that way.

Let’s make a deal, just not this one.

The Dallas Mavericks call you and offer Josh Howard and Jose Juan Barea for a package of Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster, and Steve Blake. Do you make that deal? Why or why not?

1. Josh Howard would not be my choice of a guy to bring in who will take up our little bit of cap room this summer. I would hate to give up those guys, esp. Rudy, unless I am adding a key piece. Although he would make an immediate upgrade at SF and as a third option, I’m not impressed enough with the defense.

2. The only the way this trade works in isolation is if we are planning to run a Bayless and/or Batum behind Brandon with Sergio and Barea at PG. If we assume Sergio goes away (or if he stays!!), we will have a pretty limited PG group. Now if the plan was to then turn Josh Howard into Cpt. Kirk, maybe this deal has merits. But I don’t see why that would work at all.

No deal.

We lose a 2 potential All NBA 3rd team players, and gain, maybe a decent back up PG and a fading star with character issues. Trading MW would be stupid after signing him to his contract as well, not something a Blazer GM would do. I don’t look at the Mavs and see anything of value from them.

Here is a trade I would do… No idea if it would happen:

MAVS-PORTLAND-MEMPH-BOBCATS

Portland-
IN
CONLEY
G. WALLACE
OUT
BLAKE
OUTLAW
WEBSTER

MAVS
IN
BLAKE
OUTLAW
DIAW
MILICIC
OUT
HOWARD
DAMPIER

MEMPH
IN
J. HOWARD
OUT
MILICIC
CONLEY

BOBcats
IN
WEBSTER
DAMPIER
OUT
G. WALLAVE
B. DIAW

I would love to have Michael Beasley backing up both Batum & Aldridge in big minutes(at least as many as he plays in Miami) send out Outlaw/Webster, among other things. He would be in an ideal situation here in Portland imo. Batum/Beasley, Aldridge/Beasley would be really awesome in my opinion. Although prying him from Miami would be tough, I think if Rudy/Bayless are on the table then we could do it. If we managed to make a trade for a PG(Say… Conley) without moving Bayless or Rudy, we send them those two, we could get Cook/Beasley in return. Sergio could actually be a good fit in Miami on the second unit, Rudy is an ideal backup for Wade. A core of Conley/Roy/Batum/Aldridge/Oden/Beasley is… Freakishly athletic, talented & young.

throw in aldridge take out martell, insert Outlaw, and they give us Nov in ski

so recap,
Portland gets,

Howard
Dirk
jose
next drafts first rounder, the bottom 3 of our 4 second rounders

Dallas gets
Blake
Rudy
Aldridge
Outlaw
sergio if they want him…..
we move Martell to back up Roy, Howard starts batum backs him up, Bayless gets his punching bag… and well… lol. . Dallas would just turn down my counter, but that’d be the point I guess….

Ya just say no … but if ya take a wack at going for broke every time at the plate you’re gonna hit a homer sooner than later

The Blazers should do everything in their power to get some guys like Houston had this year. Chuck Hayes is thick. Jason Maxiell is thick. Kendrick Perkins is thick.

In the playoffs you need the aggressors in the low post to punish those who drive the lane.

Unfortunately the sorry Lakers don’t fit this mold but we need some punishers on the bench. Bring on Hansborough!

The entire trade depends on how you look at the value of Josh Howard. The guy went from overrated to underrated and now he is probably rated just right. Barea is nice, but not starting material. So lets look at the good and bad of the KEYS to this trade.

Howard Pros: High end scorer at the SF position that can get his points in a number of different ways. Solid defender. Relatively young with playoff experience.

Howard Cons: Loves the lettuce. Recent injuries. I would mention the “culture” but that has to take a back seat as the “culture” has been set and this is Roy’s team.

Barea Pros: Tough PG that can score in bunches. Energy guy. Solid backup

Barea Cons: Not a great passer (or even as good as sergio). Inconsistant shooter. Very short and can be abused by bigger guards.

What we lose……

Rudy Pros: Solid shooter. Very Young with TONS of upside. Instant offense. Big game experience. 3 pt threat. Great court vision and can play 2-3 positions. Godd Passer.

Rudy Cons: Defensive liability (although not as bad as people think). Hasnt shown ability to get to the hole and finish (gets most his points from the outside).

Blake pros: Solid PG with excellent outside shooting. Doesnt turn the ball over very often. Avoids mistakes. Familiar will team. Knows his role and plays it well.

Blake Cons: He is what he is (not much more upside to what he is right now). Gets abused by both bigger guards and quicker guards. Not an elite “creator”, meaning that he doesnt get to the hole, create havoc, and get his shot or an easy shot for a big man very often (a la CP3-to-Chandler or D WIll-to Boozer). Doesnt create his own shot very often.

Martell……..this is the tough one.

Pros: Still young with lots of upside. Physically and athletically perfect for the SF position. Shown flashes of a solid/consistant scorer. Familiar with team. Knows his role. Solid defender. Good shooter. Good character guy

Martell Cons: Hasnt put it “all together”. In love with outside shot. Hasnt figured out how to get to the hole and finish with power. Bad injury. Not a great passer or creator. Seems to just sit on the outside and wait.

Without a doubt this is a tough trade to make. My gut instict says to pass it up and see what Martell does this year. And ESPECIALLY what Rudy develops into. I dont think Josh Howard puts us over the top, and we end up giving up too much of the future of this team. Let this one go.

This is a pretty easy no for me. In my opinion, this offseason has two goals: acquiring help at PG, and definition/consolidation at SF. DAL’s proposal provides neither. POR would be giving up their only reliable PG (resulting in diminished talent at the position). Furthermore, if POR were to acquire Howard, they’d still be left with Howard, Batum, and Outlaw at SF. One of those guys is going to get left at the end of the bench, and that’s no good. All three of the outgoing players could be starters in this league, and POR would receive only one starter in return. Acquiring Howard gives a little definition to roles at SF, since Howard will be the starter, but that leaves scraps for Batum or Outlaw. There are many reasons not to do this trade.

If presented with DAL’s offer above, I would let them know I wasn’t immediately interested, but would be more interested in getting a third team involved. Around the trading deadline, I personally was most in favor trying to acquire Caron Butler. So, I’d call them up, and ask if they’d be interested in the following deal:

POR OUT ($14.4M)………………………………..POR IN ($17.2M)
Steve Blake – $4.9M……………………………….Caron Butler – $9.8
Martell Webster – $4.3M…………………………..Etan Thomas – $7.4
Rudy Fernandez – $1.2M…………………………#5 in 2009 draft
Travis Outlaw – $4.0M

DAL OUT ($15.6M)………………………………..DAL IN ($14.4M)
Josh Howard – $10.9M…………………………..Steve Blake – $4.9M
Jose Juan Barea – $1.7M………………………..Martell Webster – $4.3M
.#22 in 2009 draft………………………………….Rudy Fernandez – $1.2M
Brandon Bass – $3M S&T……………………….Travis Outlaw – $4.0M

WAS OUT ($17.2M)……………………………….WAS IN ($15.6M)
Caron Butler – $9.8……………………………….Josh Howard – $10.9M
Etan Thomas – $7.4………………………………Jose Juan Barea – $1.7M
.#5 in 2009 draft……………………………………Brandon Bass – Sign & Trade
……………………………………………………….#22 in 2009 draft

What’s in it for POR?
1) Definition at SF. Butler is the clear starter, who can play D, hit a jumper, and create his own shot. Batum is the back-up. There’s no other SF’s on the roster that deserve playing time.
2) Etan Thomas is the banger 4 backup that many think the team needs. He’s a vet, and he’s going to know his role. Travis will no longer be rotting on the bench for all but 12 mins/game.
3) KP loves high picks, and could move up to grab Rubio, stay put and get Flynn or Harden, or use as ammunition for something else that none of us mortals could come up with.
4) Portland becomes the proud new owner of the ETEC, which can be moved at the deadline as teams scramble to get under the cap for the Lebron-Dwayne-Amar’e sweepstakes.
5) PG is thin without Blake, but because this is not an uneven trade, POR gets to keep their mid-level exception and Diogu trade exception. These assets can be used to acquire a starting PG. With the trade, POR is ready made for a championship. The only thing missing is a decent PG. That’s gotta be attractive for a guy like Andre Miller, or another guy later in his career, looking for a title. Or a guy that hasn’t quite come into his own, yet is a free agent (Ramon Sessions). Sergio gets his wish, and gets traded to Siberia.
6) Diogu trade exception can be used to acquire a future 1st round pick, or combined with ETEC to get PG help.
7) With Rudy and Blake gone, that opens up the back-up SG minutes for Bayless and Batum to split. Batum can obviously guard a SG, and it would give him an opportunity to grow on offense. Otherwise, Bayless gets the same opportunity. Either way, this is good.

Starter………………………Back-up
PG Miller/Sessions……….Bayless
SG Roy……………………..Bayless/Batum
SF Butler……………………Batum
PF Aldridge ………………..Thomas
C Oden/ Przybilla………….Oden/ Przybilla

What’s in it for DAL?
Well, they made the initial offer, and this provides everything they asked for, so I’m assuming their interest. Their initial offer is changed by them losing their #22 (in a supposedly weak draft) for Travis Outlaw. I’ve got to believe they’d be very happy to make that deal. I know if I were Portland’s GM, I’d want more than #22 for Outlaw, especially in this draft and economy.

What’s in it for WAS?
This is the most questionable part of my idea. WAS’ payroll issues are widely reported. They’re going to go over the luxury tax. With this deal, they rid themselves of Etan Thomas’s contract ($2M in salary + $2M in tax), they’re not paying a rookie almost $6M in salary+luxury tax, they get a wing with lots of playoff experience, who’s been to the finals. Butler and Howard are similar caliber players, and have similar PERs across their careers. I don’t see this as a net loss or gain at SF. Not to be discounted, they also get Brandon Bass, who’s a nice young player that can be a solid back-up to Antwan Jamison. Barea is a change of pace PG, who can give teams a different look when needed. DAL’s pick can be used to draft a player or they can trade it for future considerations. This saves them $8M real dollars this year, with no appreciable talent drop-off, while adding an additional player for depth (and one less player to sign to a minimum deal).

This trade would need to be agreed upon before/during the draft, but would not be able to be executed until after June 1st.