Blazersedge: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Cal RB Jahvid Best Seriously Injured, Carted Off Field

Mythbusting the Rudy-Ginobili Comparisons

It seems that ever since a certain former European league MVP stormed into the Blazer team this past year, that we've been constantly bombarded with comparisons to another former European league MVP who plays for the San Antonio Spurs.  These comparisons drive me insane, because, aside from being white SGs who played in Europe, there is almost no similarity to either their games, or their situations.  In hopes of lessening the onslaught of these comparisons, I thought I'd take a second to punch holes in some of the most common axioms in this debate.

First off, though, I want to explicitly say that I don't mean to argue that Manu or Rudy are better than the other, just that they are two completely different players in two completely different situations.  Saying they're very similar or in similar siutations would be no different than saying that Reggie Miller and Clyde Drexler were very similar players.

Star-divide

Myth 1: Ginobili was equally poor at getting to the rim as a rookie, so Rudy will develop that part of his game later.

Comparing their rookie seasons over at 82games.com (Ginobili and Rudy), it's apparent that even in his rookie year, Manu got to the rim a fair amount of the time, shooting 40% of his shots from inside.  This is a similar percentage to Jerryd (48%) or Russell Westbrook (42%), both guys who were acknowledged to be excellent at getting the ball inside.  At 16%, Rudy was much more similar to guys like Battier (21%), Ben Gordon (20%), or Webster last year (17%).  The lowest % of inside shots that Manu has ever had was 26% (in 2007/2008), after he had slowed down considerably and was hampered by an ankle injury.  Prior to that, he had never failed to shoot at least 34% of his shots inside.

Moreover, on those inside shots, Rudy was assisted on 67% of them, no doubt largely due to Sergio assists on alley oops.  This isn't a bad thing, as one of Rudy's strengths is movement off the ball and taking advantage of defenders poor posiitoning, but it indicates that even when Rudy did get a shot attempt from inside, it didn't come from him beating his man off the dribble, but instead off of motion and backdoor cuts, indicating that he wasn't really able to effectively beat people off the dribble.

In contrast, only 44% of Manu's inside shots as a rookie were assisted, indicating that he was getting the ball, and even as a rookie, was able to put it on the floor and get inside for his own shot.  For comparison's sake, here are Roy's (30%), Wade's (28%), Kobe's (37%), and Melo's (48%) assisted rates on inside baskets.

Finally, the other way to judge an ability to create a shot would be to look at how well they drew fouls.  Rudy drew a foul on approximately 6% of his shot attempts last year, similar to Nic (6.5%), Battier (6.6%), Jameer Nelson (5.2%), OJ Mayo (6.6%), and Derek Fisher (5.2%).  All good players, but all guys who were primarily jump shooters and didn't get inside a whole ton.  As a rookie, Manu drew fouls on 15% of his jump shots, similar to Roy (13.8%), Wade (16.6%), Paul Pierce (15.5%), and Iguodala (16.2%) this year.  All guys who can get to the cup fairly regularly.

Of course, I would be delinquent if I didn't not Rudy's VASTLY superior perimeter shooting here.  Rudy had an eFG of 10% higher than Manu's on jumpers, mainly due to not only shooting 5% better from deep, but also taking more than twice as many triples, which is a pretty massive gulf any ways you look at it.

So to conclude, Manu's been able to get to the rim basically his entire career, although he's never been as good a shooter as Rudy is now.  Still, assuming Rudy will develop that part of his game because "Manu did it" would be like assuming Sergio can learn to finish at the rim as well as Bayless because "Bayless developed it".  Manu didn't all of a sudden start putting on the floor in his second and third years. He was always good at it, he just got better.

 

Myth 2: Manu's never had to start, so Rudy will be fine being a sixth man as long as he's in Portland.

This is perhaps the most confusing of all the comparisons for me.  I think it's become so ingrained in popular belief because we're constantly bombarded with stories like "Manu okay moving to the 6th man", while ignoring the fact that every time one of those stories crops up, it's because he's being moved back to the bench from being a starter.  In a strange coincidence, Manu has started exactly as many games as he's come off the bench for in his career.  After sitting on the bench for his rookie year, when they won the title, he started for the first half of his second year before being moved back to the bench, and then after losing to LA in the playoffs, became a fixture in the starting lineup for the next two and a half years, including the title year in 2005 and the heartbreak in 2006 (when he gave Dirk an and 1 to send game 7 to OT).  It was only midway through the following season that he was moved back to the bench.

The question is, will Rudy ever have that same kind of opportunity to start games here, which is doubtful with Roy and Nic around.  Not that Nic is a better overall player, but it seems that would be Nate's preference.  It's one thing to be okay with being moved to the bench, but it's an entirely different thing to be okay with going your entire career never having the opportunity to start.  Maybe he's okay with that, but as we heard with some of the offseason rumblings with Trout over the last year, even if guys don't vocalize it, it's clear that starting is one of their goals. It should be noted that every recent sixth man of the year outside of Barbosa and Bobby Jax, either started, or went on to start the majority of their NBA career (Terry, Ginobili, Gordon, Miller).

I don't mean to say this is a deal breaker with Rudy or anything, but again, just that the Manu comparisons don't really fit.  Manu has had ample time as a starter in SA, something that may never be available for Rudy here with the way the team is built.

 

Myth 3: If Rudy wants to play more, fine, Manu's averaged 28 mpg throughout his career, how come we can't give Rudy the same amount?

As stated before, Manu has spent extensive time as a starter for the Spurs.  If you just look at his minute averages as a reserve, it gets a little dicier.  Over his career, Manu has averaged 25.2 mpg coming off the bench, less than Rudy averaged this year (25.6).  Moreover, there's only been one year in his career that he averaged more than 27 mpg off the bench (29.1 in 2007/2008).  His career average is brought up by the fact that he's never averaged fewer than 28.5 mpg as a starter, so even if we were to keep Rudy in a "Ginobili"-type role off the bench, it would most likely be with a marginal increase in minutes, and not the moderately large one that I've heard rumblings about Rudy wanting.

Second, the other issue is that our set of wings outside of Rudy is substantially better than the Spurs wings outside of Ginobili.  While the Spurs have always played with a defensive stopper (Bowen) for 35+ mpg, the only times that Ginobili has played alongside a decent third wing have been early in his career (Jackson and then Turkoglu), but that was before either was considered the player that they are now, and certainly neither were anywhere close to as good as Brandon is.  Since his second year in the league, only one wing on the Spurs has played more mpg than Ginobili when healthy (Bowen).  With Brandon here, that can never be the case for Rudy.

Even in theory, assuming Brandon plays 37 mpg (which he has the last two seasons), and Nic and Rudy play the entirety of the rest of the wing minutes, it's impossible for them both to play 30 mpg.  In practice, though, teams will almost always split up the wing minutes between four players, even if one of them is only playing spot minutes (Lakers with Ariza, Kobe, Vujacic and Walton, Magic with Lee, Hedo, Pietrus, and Redick, Denver with Jones, Melo, Smith, and Kleiza/Carter, Cleveland with West, LBJ, Wally, and Sasha).  Even though Vujacic and Pavlovic are only averaging about 10 mpg in the playoffs, if you assume that's what Webster will play filling in as the 4th wing, you're down to Nic only playing around 20 mpg again in order for Rudy to be around that 28 mpg threshold, and I'm sure all of us would expect Nic to play more than that next year.

Again, this point doesn't mean to dog on Rudy, just to point out that their situations are completely different.  Manu has been the Spurs best offensive wing during his entire career there, something we'll never be able to say about Rudy as long as Brandon't on the team.

 

And to end up, I really don't mean to say this is a call to trade Rudy, that he can't fit, or that he's an inferior player at all, just that there are very real differences between not only their games, but also their situations that are deeper than just dismissing any concerns with "well, it works in SA with Manu".  Rudy's an excellent player in his own rights, and by all measures seemed to work well with Brandon, but once you get beyond the "white player from a European league" point, comparisons to Manu just fall apart if you bother to look at them a little deeper.  If anything, it just strikes me as lazy stereotyping, like Adam Morrison or Keith Van Horn getting compared to Larry Bird, or Rubio getting compared to Sergio.  Feel free to rebut away, though.

15 recs  |  Comment 33 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Blazersedge

Media Row Report: Blazers 96, Rockets 87

Oct 2009 by Ben. - 251 comments

Game 1 Recap: Blazers 96, Rockets 87

Oct 2009 by Dave - 294 comments

Too Much Talent?

Oct 2009 by Dave - 81 comments

Breaking Down the Udoka Invitation

Sep 2009 by Dave - 92 comments

Comments

Display:

I still have hope; but I agree that its wishfull thinking.

Ginobili is the master of intenablies, and simply does the things needed for his team to win. I was, and still do hope Rudy can be a similar type of player.
While Rudy has a flare for the game, which endures him to his fans, I’m not sure if he has the physical, and mental toughness to be a true impact player, let alone at the level of Ginobilli. Also, I think Rudy would benefit by more of motion offense, but Portland just runs him off screens, or spots him up at the perimeter.

by MotoMan045 on Jun 14, 2009 2:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

After reading this, I still believe the comparison is very reasonable and understandable...

I don’t think that these three myths are really the REASONS why Rudy is compared to Ginobli. These myths are the aftermath, those people who originally saw the similarities and then went on to draw further comparisons to try and support the comparison of Rudy to Ginobli. Personally I get really tired of “the Next….” as a title for anyone… “The Next Jordan” “the Next Shaq” “the Next whomever” it is really a comparison of natural skills, NBA circumstances or both. It is totally realistic to compare young Rudy Fernandez to proven champion Manu Ginobli. It isn’t about getting to the rim (#1), it isn’t about whether they are bench players throughout their careers (#2), and it isn’t about how many minutes these guys get (#3)… Nope, this comparison was and still is due to Manu Ginobli’s success in the NBA first and foremost, and then because Rudy is the “next” international shooting guard prospect with enough excite enough for this comparison to get triggered… It really is too bad that people want to KEEP going past that initial comparison. Similarities are fine, but NEVER will two different players be the same… there is no NEXTs. The comparison is reasonable and understandable to compare Rudy to Ginobli…

Who is Emanuel Ginobli?

1.) He was a top international guard prospect coming into the NBA
2.) Ginobli is a 6’5" shooting guard with big-time scoring ability
3.) Ginobli joined the NBA and teamed with a top young guard prospect (Parker) and one of the most talented front courts (Duncan/Robinson)
4.) Ginobli is a key bench scorer for his team
5.) Ginobli played a key role for a multiple championship team.

Who is Rudolpho Fernandez?
1.) Rudy was a top international guard prospect coming into the NBA
2.) Rudy is a 6’5" shooting guard with big-time scoring ability
3.) Rudy joined the NBA and teamed with a top young guard prospect (Roy) and one of the most talented front courts (Aldridge/Oden)
4.) Rudy is a key bench scorer for his team
5.) Rudy is a prospect on a team that has aspirations to win multiple championships in this era.

No, their shooting percentages won’t be the same, and they won’t drive to the rim the same percentages, who knows which one will have more titles, or who plays more minutes… Bottom line is, Rudy is the “caliber” of player that makes analysts and fans believe he can have similar NBA success as fellow international player who paved the road prior to him (Ginobli). So why even break it down further? They are not the same player.

by Portland Dynasty on Jun 15, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Those are all pretty superficial

it basically boils down to
1.)They’re international SGs
2.)They can score
3.)They come off the bench (which hasn’t been true for half of Manu’s career)

I could say, hey, look at these two 6’2 guards in the league, both are big time scorers for teams that have contended for titles in the last 5 years. They’re very similar players. But in actuality, Jason Terry and Tony Parker are almost nothing alike, stylistically. They just happen to be the same height and able to score.

It’s the same thing about Manu and Rudy. I’d say roughly 90% of the comparisons involving Rudy made on this site are to Manu, basicaly for the reasons you outlined above, no matter if Rudy’s game is far more similar to Rip Hamilton, Reggie Miller, Jason Terry, Kerry Kittles, or even Rex Chapman.

by Royster on Jun 16, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly...

That is why I hate going any further than those initial superficial comparisons. After that players are going to ultimately become who they are… not some other player.

I loved the comparison of Rudy to Ginobli… and I love having Rudy on our team. Don’t forget that Rudy IS a great prospect. Where do you think Rudy would go in this Draft? I guarantee he would be Top 6. Same thing with Jerryd Bayless, that kids talent level would slot him above Brandon Jennings, Jonny Flynn, Tyreke Evans, Ty Lawson and pretty close to Ricky Rubio and Stephen Curry. Rudy, to me, is definitely a brighter prospect than DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, Terrence Williams, and would be close to neck and neck with James Hardin. I know Terrence Williams is the next Scottie Pippen and Brandon Jennings is the next Kevin Johnson, and Stephen Curry is the next Terry Porter….. After the draft he should just be Stephen Curry though.

by Portland Dynasty on Jun 17, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Regarding Myth #1

The differences between Manu and Rudy’s games is exactly what makes Rudy such a great wingmate for Roy, and why Manu wouldn’t be. If you look at the jump shooting or close in shooting numbers, you’ll find that Rudy is much better in both areas (Rudy is 52% outside 72% inside, Manu is 46% outside and 68% inside). With Oden expected to be the great interior presence on offense and Roy challenging teams in the paint, the part of Ginobli’s game that makes him better would actually mitigate the success Roy would have in the future. Having one of the game’s 3 or 4 best shooters makes Roy’s ability to drive and dish that much more dangerous and efficient.

Also, while I think your point about them getting to the basket is true, it’s also true that Manu’s handle and ball handling abilities have improved greatly from when he just got into the league until today. In 2002 his hands rating was an 11.6, whereas now it’s consistently over 15. Rudy’s handles should improve, but his game will never be based around him getting dribble penetration. Another facet of Rudy’s game that makes him more of a Nate guy is the fact that he turns the ball over at around half the rate that Manu does. This also plays its way into the efficiency scores. Less wasted possessions, more possessions with higher output.

Regarding Myth #2
I think the fact that everyone compares the 6th man Manu is to the 6th man Rudy will be is that they both bring so much energy onto the court. That is probably the main reason they’re only able to play 25-30 minutes per night. They’re constantly moving, and making things happen on the court, that they’re really only able to play that long at their highest intensity. That’s at least why I make the 6th man comparison between the two of them. Starting Rudy would be wasteful if for no other reason than the benefit he gives you going up against players that have already been on the court for 6-8 minutes. Rudy is a nightmare matchup for a defender, especially if the guy has any size at all. This is another area in which Roy is greatly helped by the presence of Rudy on the court.

I also tend to think that he’d be okay with a permanent 6th man role because of not only these facts, but because of the fact he was okay with it on the Spanish national team. Much like Ginobli in San Antonio, on that Spanish team Rudy was the 2nd best player on the entire team, and he agreed and played exceptionally well coming off the bench. Regarding the rumblings that you’ve heard that Rudy should start, I really don’t think they’re even necessary to pay attention to. We basically control his rights for 3 more years, and with RFA the way it is, more likely 6-8 more years (basically his entire prime). I also very much doubt having seen what I’ve seen that he’d ever end up being a malcontent. He seems as much as anyone to have a love for the game, and you can see it on the court.

I think a lot like Manu, the need for Rudy to start would for all purposes go away if we won a title. Much like your argument here, it’s all hearsay, but playing for a winner to me is a cureall, again, much like it was for him on the Spanish team. I know in Europe whether or not you start the game is less important than knowing your role, and fitting in to the teams plan. Their play has a lot more to do with different set rotations, and Rudy is certainly part of that here.

Regarding Myth #3
Here you discuss the fact you think Rudy would want more minutes. Apparently you’ve heard rumblings that he wants more minutes, which I can’t really speak to, but I will say, he probably wouldn’t get a ton more minutes here. Quite frankly, I’m not sure he would want or certainly would do well with substantially increased role. With the way he plays the game, it’s just impossible to see the human body allowing him to play that way much more than he currently does. That said, on a nightly basis I foresee Rudy getting around 26-30 minutes a night. The 12 minutes for sure that Brandon isn’t a game, but more importantly 14-18 minutes that he’d get to play alongside his perfect wingmate buddy in Roy. If you’re trying to out think the room, there isn’t a need to.

Whether it was just situationally or not (I’m going with not because Nate doesn’t veer from his shifts much), the Roy Rudy combination at the wing positions was our best lineup last year (+12 per 48 – +24 per 48 with our 5 most used lineups), and that was in Rudy’s rookie year, and first year playing with Roy. It might not be a perfect situation because neither excel defensively (although you’d never know this by the numbers), but it an absolutely devastating offense for defenses to try and solve. Throw in a corner threat from 3 and a decent jump shooter, and you have yourself a near impossible cover for an opponent. It is this lineup that makes getting Rudy his 30 minutes possible, and I think that WOULD be enough to keep Rudy happy.

Your second point about minutes regarding Rudy was that San Antonio’s wing play was much worse. That of course is true, but it’s just as true that it doesn’t have any effect on Rudy. He’s flat better than any of our other wing players right now besides Roy, and they’re not more deserving of minutes. Batum may someday be better, but even then, he’d probably split the leftover minutes with Roy.

I have to go, I’ll finish this up when I get back……….

by as11osu on Jun 14, 2009 2:37 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

My point was never that it "can't" or "won't" work

but that if it does, it will be entirely different from what happened in SA. Would Manu have been happy as a permanent sixth man? Possible, but Rudy is going to have to be happy to be a sixth man in perpetuity here, so it’s a different situation. Some players would be okay with that, some wouldn’t. The point was, Manu had an opportunity in SA that Rudy never will here so saying the situations are the same isn’t true.

And, while Rudy is clearly the second best wing player here, it should be noted that the guy who played the most wing minutes for SA the past 5 years has never been better than their third best wing player (Bowen), while their second best wing player (alternatively Turk, Barry, and Finley) has never averaged more than 26 minutes, so just asserting that Rudy will play more minutes because he’s better might not truly reflect the situation.

by Royster on Jun 14, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And as you noted...

the circumstances are different. I agree entirely on that point as well. My post acknowledges them as different players, because it’s quite easy to see that they are. All the stuff about starting or not starting or an extra minute or two versus not, is the part I have my contention with. And as you pointed out a lot of the subjective negatives regarding Rudy, I wanted to throw out some of the subjective positives about the situation (fit, need, already noticeable results).

I’m guilty of throwing out the Manu card when discussing Rudy, but its more about energy and being well suited for his 6th man role. I’ve never advocated Rudy being a permanent starter on this team, or quite frankly starting at all (when Batum is fully ready). He’s a near perfect role player for this team though. That’s why IMO you can’t trade him unless you’re getting your franchise level point guard in return. No one else on this team will make a bigger impact in that 6th man role than Rudy will.

by as11osu on Jun 14, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

Anyone declaring definitively how things will work out here is just being asinine. I agree that Rudy is a near perfect role player for us right now. My worry is that, especially if we don’t win a title in a few years, Rudy will want to prove he can be more.

Really, the first myth was more just about saying they’re very different players rather than one being better or worse. It’d be like comparing Ray Allen and Vince Carter, or Reggie Miller and Clyde Drexler. All of them are starting SGs who led their teams to the playoffs, but their games are all vastly different.

by Royster on Jun 14, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My worry is that, especially if we don’t win a title in a few years, Rudy will want to prove he can be more.

I think that that’s a legitimate concern, even though I’ve heard a lot of good things re: Rudy’s attitude (“I’ll do whatever the coach asks me to do” etc.) Some players are better being “Robin” instead of Batman" and maybe Fernandez will be one of those, who knows.

My favorite comparison to this Roy/Rudy “debate” is the late Drazen Petrovic, who was in a similar situation “playing behind” Clyde Drexler back in the early ‘90s. I think that comparing Rudy and Petro’s playing style is reasonable: they’re both great outside shooters, willing passers and tend to play better on an uptempo team. Neither were great on the ball defenders or penetrators; both were opportunistic and play(ed) with a flair (definitely crowd pleasers)

Drazen had loftier goals than being a backup SG, and eventually he was dealt to NJ where he became an all-star. Rudy’s future may be different, it’s really up to him (and possibly his agent) re: how long he’ll be content playing in Portland. Maybe he’d rather not be in the spotlight of a larger market; he might get “enough” attention back in Spain during the offseason. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how it works out

But if Rudy does get antsy for a better role on another team (like Petro and Sergio) there’s no doubt KP will have his choice of great offers for him. Like I’ve said many times, there’s no need to move Rudy for 18-24 months, unless a screaming deal “demands” that he be included in a trade. By the end of his rookie contract, we should all be well aware of how he feels about re-upping as a Blazer

by two4larue on Jun 14, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i dont think he's saying ginobili>rudy, he's just pointing their games are different.

and i for one think hes right. however, you covered one of the two points I was going to make: the evidecne for rudy being content as 6th man is not from a comparison to manu-its looking at the olympics where he was clearly deserving of starting. I wonder if starting means as much in Europe as it does here—but that’s another story.

the other point I wanted to make is that people seem to forget that Roy plays PG for some mins every game. Your dissection of minutes definitely holds when you include Outlaw and company, but I think looking at the 3 player lineup of Roy Rudy Batum, you can find plenty of minutes. Just put some of Roy’s at PG.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 14, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ginobili>rudy

By a wide margin.

Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .

by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 14, 2009 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

When healthy, Manu is one of the 10 or 15 best players in the entire league.

I’m pretty sure no one in their right mind is going to say the guy that just got through playing his rookie year is better than him.

by as11osu on Jun 14, 2009 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it has much to do with him playing in his rookie year.

I’m sure Rudy will improve, but I would be very surprised if he ever comes close to Manu’s level of play. It’s much easier to learn how to shoot than it is to learn how to drive and finish at the rim. The fact that people talk about him in the same breath as Manu is crazy, you might as well be comparing Jason Kapono to Reggie Miller.

I know that probably rubs people the wrong way, but it’s just my opinion. Hopefully Rudy proves me wrong.

Roy is the best player in the world with the exception of Incarcerated Mike from Queensbridge .

by Nick Van Excellent on Jun 14, 2009 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They're different players

but they’re both dealing with the same situation starting out. When Manu was 25, his rookie year, he was much less than he is now (14.5 PER). The next year that went up to 18 and then to 20, topping out at 24. The transition to the NBA isn’t the easiest thing in the world. I’d be surprised if next year Rudy doesn’t top 18 himself.

Reggie Miller also had a similar PER to Rudy’s at the same age (15.5 to 15.7). I definitely think the year of experience in the NBA is going to help him, as will chemistry with Roy and company. Throw in a competent point guard for all of Rudy’s minutes including a guy that’s better on the defensive end so Rudy doesn’t have tough matchups as often, and I think the sky is the limit for him on this team.

As the defense begins to tighten up with the addition of better defenders and the improvement of Batum and Oden, Rudy’s offensive efficiency and contribution will become more pronounced in addition to a lot of his defensive mistakes being erased by the big man. Once this starts to happen Rudy’s gambling nature defensively will have a higher net effect because his mistakes will cost us less.

by as11osu on Jun 14, 2009 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've never understood the Manu- Rudy comparisons either

The obvious comparison to me was Kevin Martin of the Kings. Slight, hussle-types, with smooth shooting and great movement.

But I’m coming to the realization that color of skin is the most important factor to consider when doing comparisons of foreign players.

by TheThinWhiteDuke on Jun 14, 2009 2:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He is a good comparison, especially when looking at the frame and slightly unstable body when shooting

That was already visible when comparing YouTube videos of Rudy in Spain with Martin from like 2 years ago. Rudy will probably become the better all-around player, Martin is noticeably better driving to the rim.

by Norsktroll on Jun 14, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any chance you could fill us in

with the Synergy player DNA comparisons of Rudy with say, Manu, Martin and Rip?

by Royster on Jun 14, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Values since photobucket scaled the images:
Rudy 12, 17, 0, 0, 46, 18, 7
Manu 19, 40, 0, 0, 26, 7, 8
Martin 26, 25, 0, 0, 26, 13, 10
Rip H 14, 16, 0, 6, 29, 28, 7

Rudy held his opponents pretty low at a PER of 13.6 while posting 18.1 himself when playing SG. He was bad defending other positions though. I would expect his spot-up shooting to go down again, coming into the NBA he used pick and rolls and isos much more. http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR4.HTM

by Norsktroll on Jun 14, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

rip is hands down the best comparison for Rudy

the only thing is Rip shoots a little more midrange and Rudy curls wider to the 3. I think Rudy will develop more of a Rip type game though and create to the basket etc in the next few years. No evidence, just a hunch. I think he’s pretty much known now as a 3pt threat and teams will start overplaying him even more, threatening him to drive…which i think he can take advantage of.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Jun 14, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He did more driving when in Europe

He has also talked about taking more midrange shots and I would extrapolate from that more opportunities to take it all the way would then open up now that he would be driving more, we can evaluate that once he impliments it into his game.

"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein

by Garden of ODEN on Jun 15, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Myth # 1

I don’t personally say if Ginobli can do X then Rudy can do X, but I have said that Rudy should study tape of Manu.

I think Rudy could develop the ability to attack the rim. He did it sporadically during the season. It would help HIS game much more than it would help the team overall. If the opposition can peg him down as a 3 point shooter and off the ball cutter he is easy to defend if you are paying attention. But, if Rudy is able to dribble penetrate and finish at the rim suddenly he’s a lot tougher to guard.

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jun 14, 2009 2:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

not sure Rudy has the body for that

Manu reminds me a bit of Šarūnas Marčiulionis, who was solidly built and was fearless talking the ball to the hole and getting to the FT line. Rudy’s game is more like Reggie Miller, with the baseline backdoor added in as a bonus. I don’t think Rudy’s back could take the pounding he’d receive if he regularly “attacked” the rim against a set defense.

He should stick to back-door (and transition) dunks and swing out to the perimeter in the halfcourt offense

by two4larue on Jun 14, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it doesn't have to be regularily

but it has to be something that opponents have to guard

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jun 14, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I must have missed out on all the Rudy/Manu comparisons. It seems to me that the only thing they have in common is that they are both very talented shooting guards who play major minutes off the bench. Brandon Roy is a lot closer to Manu than Rudy.
The only player Rudy reminds me of is Reggie Miller.

"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Jun 14, 2009 11:45 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I've always though Roy's game was similar to Manu

They have different roles which comes partly from mentality and partly from the team, but as far as how they score and handle the point duties, they are very similar.

Manu was a bit faster when he came in, but Roy has slightly better body control.

by hoopla-pdx on Jun 16, 2009 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rudy won't be happy with minutes/6th man minutes so... do what Zaig said!

Rotate our starters based on matchups. I don’t care if no other team in the NBA tries this, we could.

When we start against bigger SFs who rough up the guys guarding them, we go with Roy/Batum to start the game.

When we start against smaller SFs who won’t rough Roy up so much, we go with Rudy/Roy to start the game because these guys playing together has proven to be domination.

Also, if we run into a situation like we did in the playoffs this year, we won’t be at a loss for what to do. EVERYONE alive knew that Batum was an awful matchup for this team, but he started anyway. Had we been comfortable with mixing up rotations throughout the season, then maybe we would have. (I know that Artest is clearly a bigger tougher guy, but he will guard Roy regardless of positions, and on offense Artest is a little softy that Roy can cover easily enough.)

Teams will bring in a pitcher for ONE AT BAT in baseball based on matchups. Why a basketball team refuses to change things up is beyond me.

by Zaig on Jun 15, 2009 8:52 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

on offense Artest is a little softy that Roy can cover easily enough

You must’ve forgotten the bull-rush “and 1” that Ron-Ron laid on Roy during game 3

(but you probably haven’t forgotten that Artest flexed his muscles to the baseline crowd after the hoop and the harm)

27 points in game 6 was “easy to cover”? Artest saw that Roy/Rudy starting lineup and was licking his chops

BTW, Fernandez scored 2 points in game 6

“We” should do this, and that? Just remember Nate’s the coach, not you, me, Dave or Ben

by two4larue on Jun 15, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You used 1 game + 1 play as your examples

I used stats from 82 games. I also believe I mentioned that Rudy was thrown into the starting spot in a desperate game 6 despite never having started with Roy IIRC. If we had done that lineup 2 dozen times before something tells me the same doesn’t happen.

But hey, I guess you believe that since coaches punt on 4th and 1 that it’s the right move. Coaches are clearly masters of the game who do not make mistakes.

by Zaig on Jun 15, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That tangent aside

I agree that outside of being foreigner SGs who entered the league when they were older, Rudy/Manu don’t have a ton in common.

by Zaig on Jun 15, 2009 8:54 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thank you for this analysis

Something i can link to when people hastily make the comparison.

"The problem with tweeners is that sometimes they’re exactly what you need to plug the hole and sometimes they are the hole."

-LaughingJon

by appel82 on Jun 15, 2009 10:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This should tell you something

teams will almost always split up the wing minutes between four players, even if one of them is only playing spot minutes (Lakers with Ariza, Kobe, Vujacic and Walton, Magic with Lee, Hedo, Pietrus, and Redick, Denver with Jones, Melo, Smith, and Kleiza/Carter, Cleveland with West, LBJ, Wally, and Sasha)

These finals teams all have guys in the same talent range as Rudy playing behind their superstars. This idea that Rudy, or any of our players are too talented to spend time on the bench is overvaluing them a bit much. This is the NBA. I think we have to stop whining that our team is too talented, and that we need to trade half of them away for a single guy who will only be here for a couple years. We want this depth, and the guys want to play for a team that has a chance to go all the way. Those finals teams minus the Cavs, have major talents sitting on their benches. We need to have that too, if we are looking to be in that group next year.

As far as Ginobli/Rudy, it’s a fair comparison for all the reasons you are trying to discredit. You’re right, the situations are not exactly the same, but it’s just a comparison of two guys with some similarities. Let’s compare Rudy to Vujacic’s season last year instead, in which case Kobe = Roy, and the rest of the wings are as talented as any. There’s no perfect comparison, but Ginobli is within reason too.

by wingzeta on Jun 17, 2009 2:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

We want this depth, and the guys want to play for a team that has a chance to go all the way.

Would you have wanted Jarrett Jack on the Blazer’s bench, all of last year?

There’s the rub. Because if KP hadn’t dealt Jack last June, we would’ve seen less of Rudy last season

(Nate would’ve kept playing Jarrett if he was on the roster, everybody knows it)

And that’s because McMillian likes “dependable” veterans, which isn’t necessarily a “bad” thing, It all depends if the veteran is “holding back” a young player who could better help the team win games down the road

The Blazer’s W-L record ultimately will go next to Nate’s name, but KP has to keep the “big picture” in mind. If Pritchard has to “thin the herd” to force McMillian to put more trust in the younger players, then that’s what he’ll do (and usually on draft day)

I’d like to see some “roster consolidation” myself. Right now the Blazers have 5 players (Roy, Rudy, Batum, Webster, Outlaw) for those 4 “ideal” wings in the main rotation. (Sure, you can “fudge” with Travis’ PT by calling him a PF, but his game is primarily on the perimeter, and the Blazers need “more toughness”) Any way you slice up the pie, that’s one wing too many. We should all know by now that if Nate has Outlaw on his roster, Travis will play (and probably more crunch time minutes than he should)

It’s time to thin the herd again, KP

by two4larue on Jun 17, 2009 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who are the "major talents" sitting on their benches?

Josh Powell? DJ Mbenga? Adam Morisson? The closest thing to a “major talent” the Lakers have beyond their top 8 guys is Shannon Brown, who while being a HS phenom, was a low first rounder, and bounced around before landing with them.

Or the Magic: Tyronn Lue? Anthony Johnson? Adonal Foyle? Tony Battie? Lue has been anonymous in the NBA ever since the 2001 finals, Johnson is a career backup who can come in and do a job, and Foyle and Battie are both washed up stiffs.

Beyond your main rotation, you don’t want guys chomping at the bit. it doesn’t help to have Rudy worried that if he has a couple TO’s that he’s going to lose his minutes to Martell, or that if Sergio throws a bad pass he’s going to get pulled immediately (as we’ve seen the last couple years). That constant upheaval eliminates any comfort level a player can develop. This idea of always wanting our guys to fight it out and “earn” their spots is ridiculous. NBA players thrive by knowing their roles, and being comfortable in them. You want your 10-12th guys to be happy with their spots, and able to come in and chip in some minutes when injuries or foul trouble forces them into the game. It doesn’t help players to be constantly looking over their shoulders and worrying whether their next mistake could be their last one.

That’s why you constantly find guys like Anthony Johnson, Tony Battie, Sasha Pavlovic, Jason Hart, Jacque Vaughn, Brian Scalabrine, Jason Collins, Lindsey Hunter, and Austin Croshere on contending teams. None of those guys are more talented than Bayless, Frye, or even Ike, but they accept their roles, and they know how to contribute in limited minutes when their team needs them, which young lottery picks can’t/don’t do because they’re busy trying to earn more PT.

by Royster on Jun 17, 2009 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

A site by Blazer fans, for Blazer fans
Start posting about the Trail Blazers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
New B-Roy is the Old Kobe
The_dude_small
Stats 101: Whats The Deal? Let Me Explain...
Broyhope_small
First Rose Garden Game Redux...
Troll_stone_cropped_small
Nate in the land of the giants
Jesus_icon_i_small
OT: Petitio Principii, Worldview, and Sports Related Conversations

Recent FanPosts

Small
Help! Can someone explain Blake/Miller/Roy?
100_0017_small
Junk 11/8
Small
Nate comfortable with Miller calling Blazers' plays??
Imported_photos_00004_small
The Blazers NEED to make a move at or before the trade deadline...
The_dude_small
Stats 101: Averaging The Turnover
Copy_of_dcp_2180_small
Homer junk 11/7/8
Small
Showcasing Blake for Trade?
Small
En Garde -- Questions about RAMBO II
Small
We need the triangle offense
Small
Great win but still..

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

marty's buzzer beating dunk
Brandon Roy Wallpaper
Chad Ford (Insider): Travis Outlaw "Probably Won't Be Re-Signed"
Manu catches a bat during game. live coverage

ps
check out blair at the begining of video he freaks like a girl
Start Miller

Recent FanShots

Club Level tickets for sale tonight
Prince has a ruptured disc
Anyone converting stream?
A statistical look at last year's referees
Iverson takes indefinite leave from Grizzlies
I was going for the Sin City look, cause that is what I see when I look at this picture. Turned out more like last seasons cartoon intro.
Great Night
Roy is a combo guard.
Claver's team wins again.
Blazercentric SS&R Post

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


Editors

Kitten_small Dave

Ben_small Ben.

Moderators

Pict1126_small -ken

Polar_bear_small jorga

Terryporter_small prezofdeath

Small usmcr3049

Jesus_icon_i_small T Darkstar

Wallpaper_small geoffm